For many American workers, the pension has been long dead.
MI’s Brian Riedl proposes and structures a congressional commission aimed at reducing the national debt.
Three Things Congress Must Do Before the End of 2023
Elaine McCusker | Hill
While Congress has already checked off electing a Speaker of the House, Elaine McCusker shows two more tasks to complete before the end of 2023. First, to avoid a looming government shutdown, Congress needs to negotiate and pass a final fiscal 2024 appropriations package that adheres to the previously enacted Fiscal Responsibility Act caps and move on to fight other battles, such as the increasing deficit, another day. Second, Congress must pass an emergency supplemental bill that will carry through the next election. Doing so will be understandably difficult. However, Americans already know the distractions that will accompany another crazy election cycle next year and must prepare to let those debates dominate lawmakers’ time without causing self-inflicted national security damage. Read more here. >>
Three and Four Teach One and Two a Global Leadership Lesson
Derek Scissors | AEIdeas
Germany may pass Japan for third-largest annual gross domestic product this year, as Japan has lost economic ground to Germany due primarily to its terrible debt record. Derek Scissors notes that the US heading down Japan’s path would not be immediately disastrous; however, an end to dollar dominance would wreak havoc in America. Americans do not save much, so high federal borrowing relies on foreign participants. If the dollar is no longer prized, America cannot sell bonds as it does now. Dismissing rising US debt would effectively be embracing a future of domestic austerity and international disorder that would make Japan’s fall look quaint.
Learn more here. >>
Conservatism – And The Nation – At A Crossroads
The Neoclassical Growth Of China
California, The Great Destroyer
The Demographic and Fiscal Time Bombs Ticking Inside the Pentagon
John G. Ferrari | Military Times
With targeted reforms, the Fed could be made more efficient and more democratically accountable.
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Though he presents himself as an Aristotelian, Jordi Pujols has no interest in recovering ancient liberty.
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Class is not the narrow, monolithic reification of Marx’s imagination. A proper understanding of it is important for conservatism.
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When presented with the choice of fascism or socialism, Hayek chose neither.
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The Fed has lost credibility with markets. We have heard this chorus before, but fixed income markets (among others) continue to validate it. For Barron’s, Stephen Miran explores why the Fed cannot dissuade markets from pricing in short-term rate cuts. In 2020, the Fed adopted a new policy framework that abandoned its traditional task of preempting inflation; it instead would tolerate more inflation, and the low-interest government borrowing that came with it.
As the Fed has raised rates in response to inflation, regional banks have buckled. In addition to the unquantified knock-on effects on the country’s financial system, regional bank challenges pose a threat to commercial real estate, which is typically financed by a loan from a regional bank. Meanwhile, the “return to the office” has failed to materialize
Biden Will Find That Breaking Up with China Is Hard to Do
Hal Brands | Bloomberg Opinion
The essential challenge of America’s economic relationship with China is to reap the rewards of interdependence while limiting the vulnerabilities. Hal Brands shows that President Joe Biden’s strategy of decoupling has little chance of being as controlled or immaculate as the administration suggests. First, Congress gets a vote and is messaging that Biden’s strategy is too timid. Next, economic coercion is a two-way street, and China may envision a more thorough decoupling than Biden seeks. Lastly, decoupling is a dynamic process; the deteriorating economic relationship could easily take on a momentum of its own, and tensions in one part of the relationship will spill over into others. Learn more here. >>
Principles and Policies for Competition
Michael Mazza | American Enterprise Institute
The United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) are in an adversarial relationship and strategic competition. Michael Mazza argues that this is due to the incompatibility of US and PRC visions for global order and the PRC’s rise as a global power. To secure a preponderance of power for the US-led coalition, the United States should abide by nine guidelines as it continues its rivalry with China. These guidelines include investing in American power, developing a deeper understanding of China, supporting liberalism and democratic allies, securing leadership in international organizations, and denying China the means to aggrandize its own power. Going forward, these guidelines should steer US policy throughout the adversarial relationship.
Read more here. >>
Will Federal Spending Be Brought Under Control?
Jason Sorens, AIER
Persistent Inflation and Unhappy Consumers
Allison Schrager, E21
Inflation may finally be coming down. The newest inflation report suggests inflation may have peaked, but inflation coming down and returning to 2% are two different things.
Read more here....
The Fed’s Rate Hikes Could Soon Be Coming to an End
Steven B. Kamin | CNN.com
The slowing pace of monetary tightening likely means that the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes will soon be coming to an end. That would be great news for the economy and a smart move for a few different reasons.
The Fate of the American Conservative
Matthew Continetti | Deseret News
The Republican Party of the early 21st century is barely recognizable. What is the GOP’s future?
A Declining Goldman Sachs
Camillo Padulli, E21
2023 began well, with the IMF significantly increasing global growth projections. However, even as the economic outlooks improves, Goldman Sachs has become an outlier among investment banks due its high coverage ratio. Read more here....
John Cochrane On The Fiscal Theory Of The Price Level, New Keynesian Macroeconomic Models, Consumption-Based Asset Pricing, And Economic Growth
interview with John H. Cochrane via The Capitalism And Freedom In The Twenty-First Century PodcastHoover Institution fellow John Cochrane discusses his career, his new book, The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level, about how inflation can be explained by fiscal and monetary policy, New Keynesian macroeconomic models, consumption-based asset pricing and institutional barriers to economic growth.
Book Club: How Policies Make Interest Groups: Governments, Unions, And American Education
In our latest installment, watch a discussion between Senior Fellow Terry Moe and Hoover Fellow Michael Hartney, author of How Policies Make Interest Groups: Governments, Unions, and American Education
Let Housing Markets Work
Howard Husock, City Journal
Edward Chancellor has given us a colorful and provocative review of the history, theory, and the profound effects of interest rates.
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Mad Money: How to Fight the Inflation Tax
Sita Nataraj Slavov | Peter G. Peterson Foundation
Sita Nataraj Slavov considers the impact of the current macroeconomic environment on fiscal policy, the federal debt, and individual well-being.
Steven B. Kamin examines the current state of the US financial system and says that although the US seemingly faces an inevitable financial crash, there is a middle way.
If you think the federal deficit is bad now, you're in for an unfortunate surprise, because it's only going to get worse. Mark J. Warshawsky finds that the 2023 deficit will come in at 6.4 percent of gross domestic product, nearly 70 percent higher than the Congressional Budget Office's projection.
James Pethokoukis responds to critiques of “neoliberal globalization” and addresses populist praises of a "new, postliberal paradigm." Michael R. Strain praises Liz Truss for rejecting populist economics of grievance and instead opting for a policy centered on growth, opportunity, and personal responsibility. Pethokoukis explains the importance of productivity growth and demographic change and considers their implications for economic growth in India, China, and the United States in the coming century.
James C. Capretta breaks down key market-based reforms that would make the American health care system more efficient—by providing patients with high-quality care while incentivizing providers to keep their costs low. Andrew G. Biggs analyzes the Social Security Administration's recent announcement that retirees will receive a cost-of-living adjustment of 8.7 percent and how this doesn’t bode well for Social Security's long-term future. Considering how inflation has made health care even more expensive for many Americans, Brian J. Miller says policymakers can lower health care costs for patients without increasing government spending by giving hospital markets a dose of competition.
Are We Faced with a Choice Between a Financial Crash Soon or a Financial Crash Later?
Steven B. Kamin | International Economy Magazine
The US financial system faces two critical risks: The first is that the Federal Reserve will be forced to sharply tighten monetary policy in response to continued elevated inflation, and the second is that it won’t. Given the current state of the financial system, the US seemingly faces a choice between a financial crash soon or a financial crash later. But there is a middle way. Assuming inflation and output evolve as currently expected, Steven B. Kamin says, the Federal Reserve should plan on taking the policy rate back to neutrality within the next two years.
Theodore Dalyrmple explores the psychological effects of inflation.
Subsidiarity and Family Policy
Andy Smarick | National Affairs
When families struggle, the state's top goal shouldn't be to solve their problems for them; Instead, the state should focus on strengthening the institutions closest to them so that those institutions can strengthen families in turn.
Play By The Rules: EXAMINING VARIATIONS OF THE TAYLOR RULE
America Is More Fragile Than The Left Understands
by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness
Like a stunned adolescent whose reckless incompetence totaled the family car, the Left seems shocked that America proved so fragile after all.
The Federal Reserve has begun taking decisive action to combat inflation. Desmond Lachman explains why the Fed should not overly commit itself to a pre-determined policy course at a time when economic surprises are all too likely to occur. James Pethokoukis discusses how even officials in the Biden administration were reportedly concerned in private about the inflationary risk posed by the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan. And James Capretta considers the fiscal implications if the Fed reverses its decade-long reliance on quantitative easing to support the economy.
Lawmakers face a variety of issues related to health care policy. Capretta explores how Medicare’s trust funds are so flawed they could be impeding reforms that would stop the program from pushing the federal government toward a debt crisis.
Medicare’s Fiscal Challenges: A Look at the 2022 Trustees Report
James C. Capretta | Bipartisan Policy Center
'An Economist’s Outlook: Essays by John H. Makin from a Transformative Era'
John H. Makin, Carmen M. Reinhart, and Vincent R. Reinhart | AEI Press
This collection is an invaluable guide for both the beginner who wants to understand economic history, concepts, and policymaking and the seasoned expert who will appreciate John Makin’s impressive range and always thoughtful perspective on a transformative economic period.
Order the Book
James Pethokoukis reviews China's central planning and productivity challenge.
The Fed and Crypto: Back to Basics
Editorial of The New York Sun | January 20, 2022
The ECB’s Dilemma
John Cochrane, The Grumpy Economist
Industrial Policy Is Unwise But Not Impossible
Alexander William Salter, National Review
City Journal’s Eric Kober critiques the proposal for reducing the viability of mixed-income housing while implementing and maintaining economically inefficient policies.
Reverse Repurchases Soar Amidst Pandemic
Allison Schrager, E21
Since 2008 the Fed changed how it conducted monetary policy. It started paying interest on reserves and did more reverse repurchase agreements. This is when the Fed sells a security to an eligible party (often financial institutions that do not have a reserve account at the Fed) with the agreement to buy it back the next day for a different price. Read more here....
Inflation: What Next?
by David R. Henderson
The Federal Reserve has announced a tighter monetary policy, but its stance remains accommodative.
A False Choice
Biden’s top labor economist suggests a trade-off between inflation and employment.
The Rising Tide of Government Transfer Payments
Joseph Sullivan, National Review
Fed’s Infighting Shows Lack of Answers About Inflation
Brian Chappatta, Bloomberg
Connecting the Dots in China
Stephen Roach, Project Syndicate
James Capretta assesses the fiscal risks of the Build Back Better plan, and Phil Gramm and Mike Solon contemplate the return of stagflation.
It’s time for a budget policy U-turn
Desmond Lachman | The Hill
Migration, Islam, and Western Atonement
An Interview Eesti Päevaleht (Estonia) (pdf)
December 13, 2021
The Great Thomas Sowell
featuring Thomas Sowell via Prager U
He’s an economist, a historian, a philosopher, and one of the greatest social theorists America has ever produced. His name is Thomas Sowell, and he might be the most important scholar you’ve never heard of. Jason Riley, Senior Fellow at the Manhattan Institute, tells his inspiring story.
SOLZHENITSYN & HAYEK: NOBEL PRIZE; BOTH MEN DEFEATED POSITIVISM.
An authority on Southwest Asia political economy, and international columnist. covering 'the long war'.
INSTITUTIONS & CULTURE = MARKETS