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Missing but Wanted: Children
Partisan explanations for why birth rates are falling miss the true sources of a cross-cultural trend, and the possible solutions BY MICHAEL LIND
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The Geography of Work
Nicholas Eberstadt and Peter Van Ness | National Affairs Social scientists and policymakers tend to be infected with a whole array of unarticulated assumptions about work in America that simply do not comport with the facts on the ground. Full Story  China’s Revolution in Family Structure: A Huge Demographic Blind Spot with Surprises Ahead
Nicholas Eberstadt and Ashton Verdery | February 2023
THE DARIEN GAP: SOURCE OF IMMIGRATION AS OFFICIAL BIDEN POLICY & CHINA'S DEMOGRAPHIC COLLAPSE2/9/2023
China’s First Proxy War in Africa: Why Is the State Department Siding with Beijing?
Michael Rubin | 19fortyfive.com
China’s Revolution in Family Structure: A Huge Demographic Blind Spot with Surprises Ahead
Nicholas Eberstadt and Ashton Verdery | American Enterprise Institute This report maps out recent and prospective trends in China’s family structure and kinship network patterns and assesses the social, economic, and political implications of these changes. Full Story
The Worrisome Erosion of the One China Policy
By Michael D. Swaine, The National Interest: “Washington and Beijing to explicitly agree on a set of reciprocal, credible reassurance measures that will breathe life back into their original understanding regarding Taiwan.
See You Soon, Alligator
Even as their state lost more residents last year than ever before—thousands of them moving to Florida—New York policymakers seem to have no answers.
CFR’s Zongyuan Zoe Liu discusses population decline and other challenges to China’s economy.
China’s population fell to 1.41 billion in 2022, a decrease of 850,000 people compared to the previous year, the country’s statistics bureau announced (Bloomberg) China population: 2022 marks first decline in 60 years requires deep structural change will affect a long-held assumption
Reversal in the Year of the Rabbit
China’s demographic decline and waning fortunes are a result of the Communist Party’s power madness—and they heighten the danger.
The Game of Life
Ian Rowe | Institute for Family Studies Ian Rowe recommends four steps to inspire the rising generation to have more children born into stable, married, two-parent households—one of the best predictors of a life of agency. Full Story
Checking the American Presidency
Philip Wallach | Law & Liberty If we direct our still-present fear of overweening presidents into the right institutional outlets, the Constitution's system of ambition counteracting ambition still provides the best means to restore balance to our politics. Full Story
The Truth about Demographic Decline
by lyman stone Americans still express their desire for a long, healthy life with a spouse and children. But its harder for them to attain it. READ MORE ›
Central planning cannot correct demographic problems, but that doesn't mean we can't know what the "right" demographic outcome is.
READ MORE › 
Men (Not) at Work
by nicholas eberstadt Nicholas Eberstadt discusses the phenomenon of workless American men with host Samuel Gregg. READ MORE ›
America the Friendless
by adam m. carrington Aristotle reminds us that friendship is an important political good, and a central part of a well-lived life. READ MORE ›
Claude Barfield credits this ineffectiveness to a divide between the European and American domestic agendas. To prevent China from hedging forward as the world leader in international influence and national strength, the US must grow at least as fast as, if not faster than, China. Pethokoukis inspects demographic trends and suggests pro-growth policies the US can adopt to help close the gap.
In a new report, Scott Winship investigates the populist narrative that declines in men's earning prospects have driven the substantial decline in sole-breadwinner families. Measuring changes in men's material marriageability, Winship finds the social and cultural consequences of affluence more to blame for changes in family structure.
According to Michael R. Strain, new data from the Congressional Budget Office refute the conventional wisdom on stagnating incomes and rising inequality in America. "If the narrative choice is between 'growth' and 'stagnation,'" writes Strain, "the wage and income data point to the former."
Mao’s Party Never Ends
Featuring Frank Dikötter and Michael R. Auslin via Pacific Century Misha Auslin is joined by his Hoover colleague historian Frank Dikötter to talk about the latter’s new book, China After Mao, how the West misunderstands the Chinese Communist Party's nature, and why the idea of a liberalizing China has always been a chimera.
The Depopulation Bomb
Nicholas Eberstadt and Peter Robinson | Uncommon Knowledge Nicholas Eberstadt joins Peter Robinson to examine the societal and social impacts of countries being unable to sustain a population-replacement birth rate.
Montesquieu’s Warning About Our Childlessness
What can Americans learn from Montesquieu to address the nation's population decline? READ MORE
It is good to stay healthy, but today's narcissistic gym culture leads away from the path of virtue.
READ MORE ›
The Influencer
Charles Murray’s social science is sometimes provocative, usually controversial, and always significant to the national debate. 
The Baby Jihad: 'We're Taking Over Your Country.'by Raymond Ibrahim
The Stream September 7, 2022 https://www.meforum.org/63564/the-baby-jihad-were-taking-over-your-country
The Lessons Of 9/11 Are Still Unlearned
by Bruce Thornton via Front Page Magazine Our credentialed mavens can’t break free of their institutional orthodoxy and narratives.
Monetary Policy Lessons for the Federal Reserve
Desmond Lachman | Hill Desmond Lachman reflects on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's notable speech last week and the Fed's streak of hawkish monetary policy. Lachman says that Powell continues to ignore the most important lesson from past monetary policy experience, on which almost all economists agree: that monetary policy operates with long and variable lags.
Navy Secretary’s One-Year Status Report Talks About Everything… Except Sea Power
By Dakota L. Wood, RealClearDefense: "In the Indo-Pacific, the Navy faces a three-to-one numerical disadvantage in fleet size compared to China’s navy."
Kateryna Stepanenko, Grace Mappes, and Frederick W. Kagan write: Russian President Vladimir Putin is increasingly relying on irregular volunteer and proxy forces rather than conventional units and formations of the Russian Federation Armed Forces. […]Putin’s souring relationship with the military command and the Russian (MoD) may explain in part the Kremlin’s increasing focus on recruiting ill-prepared volunteers into ad-hoc irregular units rather than attempting to draw them into reserve or replacement pools for regular Russian combat units. – Institute for the Study of War
 Is China Shrinking? Nicholas Eberstadt and Peter Van Ness | AEIdeas According to the UN Population Division (UNPD), China’s population has peaked and began shrinking earlier this year. Nicholas Eberstadt and Peter Van Ness explain that China’s rate of population decline is projected to accelerate, marking a major reassessment of China’s demographic outlook. Previously, the UNPD did not envision China’s population peaking until 2031. The driver hastening China’s population decline is plunging Chinese childbearing—a tendency that predated the COVID-19 pandemic. These revisions should be only the beginning of a reassessment of what we know about China’s population, and they should offer a cautionary note about the reliability of other quantitative information about China. Learn more here >> Biden’s Taiwan Strategy Is Flawed Whether Pelosi Goes or Not Hal Brands | Bloomberg Opinion The controversy over Nancy Pelosi’s (D-CA) proposed visit to Taiwan is just a part of the standard arm wrestling between Beijing and Washington over Taiwan’s place in the world. But there may be something deeper in President Joe Biden’s anxiety about a potential Taiwan crisis: a realization that America’s China policy is courting dangers the US isn’t ready to handle, notes Hal Brands. The problem is that Washington’s China rhetoric has overtaken its China policy, and the US is badly positioned for a prospective crisis over Taiwan. Amid a protracted proxy war in Ukraine, Washington is bound to be on its back foot if mayhem erupts elsewhere. Read More >> Europe's Twilight: Christianity Declines, Islam Rises by Giulio Meotti
 The best way to find happiness is not by pursuing happiness itself, but by pursuing virtue. READ MORE › An Originalist Victory J. Joel Alicea | City Journal The Supreme Court’s Dobbs ruling is a tremendous success for the constitutional theory around which conservatives rallied for nearly half a century. Statesmanship & the Dangers of Civil Religion By Bruce Frohnen on Jun 27, 2022 03:00 pm Demands for statesmanship tend to hold up a model of greatness in political leadership that is profoundly dangerous. The desire to be “great” by upholding the interests of the nation as a political whole promotes a massive increase in the extent and centralization of political power. I recently attended a conference on statesmanship. Truth be ... Read in browser » Romano Guardini & “The End of the Modern World” By Mark Malvasi on Jun 27, 2022 04:00 pm Nearly seventy years after the publication of Romano Guardini's "The End of the Modern World," the rot has advanced too far to entertain any serious prospect of restoring a Christian social order in which, as Guardini insisted, “faith will maintain itself against animosity and danger” and “man’s obedience to God will assert itself with a ... Read in browser » Dobbs and the Days Ahead: Valuing Constitutional Institutions and Human Life Adam J. White | AEIdeas The Supreme Court finally recognized that Roe v. Wade had no actual basis in the Constitution’s text. Unfortunately, the Court’s affirmation of the Constitution will trigger attacks on the Court itself. Full Story Young men face far worse life prospects if they grow up living apart from their biological father, according to an Institute for Family Studies brief coauthored by AEI's W. Bradford Wilcox. "Lacking the day-to-day involvement, guidance, and positive example of their father in the home, and the financial advantages associated with having him in the household," the authors write, "these boys are more likely to act up, lash out, flounder in school, and fail at work as they move into adolescence and adulthood."
Martha Lee: Is France Getting Serious about Islamism? by Marilyn Stern Middle East Forum Webinar August 30, 2021 https://www.meforum.org/62603/lee-is-france-getting-serious-about-islamis  Long shadows: The Black-White gap in multigenerational poverty More than half a century after the passage of the Great Society's expansions of government aid to the poor, racial gaps in poverty and opportunity remain a cause for national concern. In a new report, AEI's Scott Winship and coauthors find that while three-generation poverty occurs among only one in 100 White Americans, it is experienced by one in five Black adults. The persistence of this gap suggests that though efforts to increase mobility and break cycles of poverty have achieved some success, the work is far from complete. The consumption, income, and well-being of single-mother-headed families 25 years after welfare reform Twenty-five years after welfare reform, the material circumstances of the most disadvantaged single mothers have noticeably improved — and at a faster rate than for those in comparison groups. Full Story Biden Letting China Get Away with Crime of the Century by Gordon G. Chang The real ‘tax gap’ is the one between progressive spending dreams and economic reality
James Pethokoukis | AEIdeas It’s hard to avoid the fundamental mismatch between the left’s spending dreams and the economics of taxation.  What’s Driving the Border Crisis?
By Timothy Kane via Defining Ideas Tim Kane argues that “push” factors such as poverty, famine, and gang violence can’t completely explain the border crisis, because data indicate that today’s Central American migrants are largely fleeing countries that have experienced relative economic growth, declining homicide rates, and a reduction in poverty in recent years. Kane maintains that, alternatively, “pull” factors, such as deportation waivers and sanctuary laws over the last decade, have been powerful incentives for asylum seekers and are likely responsible for a surge of Central American migration to the United States.  American politics: The Republican Party’s way forward Colin Dueck and Theda Skocpol | The Swedish Institute of International Affairs RYAN STREETER
Opportunity Knocks Cities hoping to attract footloose workers should embrace growth and affordability. 
China Is Creating a New Master Race
by Gordon G. Chang
Britain: A Sanctuary for Deadly Islamic Terrorists by Raymond Ibrahim
American Thinker February 18, 2021 https://www.meforum.org/62034/britain-sanctuary-for-deadly-islamic-terrorists
5.8 million fewer babies: America’s lost decade in fertility
Lyman Stone explains that the consequences of low fertility today will echo through Americans’ increasingly empty homes for decades to come, leaving millions more people isolated and adrift from wider society as they age. READ MORE  The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps reality that Biden must recognize
Michael Rubin | Washington Examiner  Muslim apostasy, to the new “strategic corridor of power” between Israel and the Gulf States and the narrowing Saudi gender gap. Is the Saudi Gender Gap Narrowing? by Ahmed H. Alrefai
Middle East Quarterly Winter 2021 (view PDF) https://www.meforum.org/61824/is-the-saudi-gender-gap-narrowing NAOMI SCHAEFER RILEY Relativizing Discipline When is child abuse not really child abuse? When it’s part of your heritage, apparently. ‘Platonic Parenting’ and the War on Love Anthony Esolen The latest step of our descent into selfishness and perversity is a trend called “platonic parenting.” A woman finds a stud male who is pleasant enough, who will be her “friend,” who will make no claims upon her, so that he can get her pregnant and they can raise the resultant experiment together while they […]  2020 Irving Kristol Award remarks Nicholas Eberstadt | Irving Kristol Virtual Lecture and Summit Full Story 
Alejandro Macarrón on the West's "Demographic Suicide" by Marilyn Stern Middle East Forum Webinar September 29, 2020 https://www.meforum.org/61587/macarron-on-the-wests-demographic-suicide Pater Familiar The role of fathers has changed, and little in the lives of men prepares them to meet the new expectations. 
An "Unimaginable Nightmare": The Abduction, Rape, and Forced Conversion of Christian Girls in Egypt by Raymond Ibrahim Todd Bensman on Jihadi Infiltration into Europe by Marilyn Stern
Middle East Forum Webinar September 25, 2020 https://www.meforum.org/61575/bensman-on-terrorist-migration-into-europe 
For as long as our love shall last: How the soulmate myth makes marriage less stable and less happy
W. Bradford Wilcox | Institute for Family Studies  Israel's Role Among the Nations—A Speech by Yoram Hazony at JLC 2019 In a moving speech at the 2019 Conference on Jews and Conservatism, Israeli political philosopher Yoram Hazony showed how Israel's national pride and civilizational confidence can help restore and renew Western civilization. Watch Now (26 minutes). 2) Israel's Demographic Miracle Alone among the advanced democracies of the world, Israel is experiencing a demographic boom. In an important Mosaic essay a few years ago—on the occasion of the Jewish state's 70th anniversary—Ofir Haivry took a close look at the meaning of Israeli vitality. Read or Print Now. Promise and peril: The history of American religiosity and its recent decline Lyman Stone | American Enterprise Institute American religiosity is in rapid decline according to numerous measures. America is an upwardly mobile society
Michael R. Strain | Mercatus Center What we care about most is whether today’s young people will be upwardly mobile. We should pursue that goal aggressively, as if the American dream is slipping from our grasp — even if it’s not.
Michael Greve discusses the daunting prospects for the Roberts Court in a closely divided country. Read More »
Marriage with family at its center
W. Bradford Wilcox | The Wall Street Journal Soulmate marriage, RIP W. Bradford Wilcox | Institute for Family Studies
REAGAN FOUNDATION ESSAYS
The future of conservative foreign policy: Political realities and electoral viability Kori Schake | Reagan Foundation Becoming more competitive with China Dan Blumenthal | Reagan Foundation Democracy and authoritarianism: How should values matter in foreign policy? Colin Dueck | Reagan Foundation
Cities and States Face a Bleak and Uncertain Future
Stephen Eide, E21 Interest rates have never been lower as the government embarks on one of the largest fiscal spending programs in history. The CARES Act is expected to cost at least $2 trillion and more is expected to come. It is tempting to argue that while interest rates are so low—even negative-- all this spending is effectively costless. Yet this new debt will last far longer than the economic damage from the coronavirus and the U.S. Government is exposed to interest rate risk because it normally finances its spending with short term debt. As it comes due, the debt is rolled over with newer bonds. If interest rates go up in the future, servicing the debt could get expensive and begin to crowd out other spending. Read more here...
Congress’ economic recovery package includes $500 billion to provide loans to large US corporations. These loans should avoid adding to financial distress, be temporary, be respectful of private control, and grant a reasonable return to taxpayers, write R. Glenn Hubbard and Michael Strain.
READ MORE A future of work that complements family life Angela Rachidi and Abby McCloskey | Institute for Family Studies The new rhythms of teleworking point to a promising future for families — one in which flexible work practices support parents and their children alike.  Reevaluating the Prosperity of the American Family – Oren Cass, Manhattan Institute Michel Gurfinkiel: Islamists Stand a "Very Good Chance" of Conquering France by Marilyn Stern Middle East Forum Radio March 7, 2020 https://www.meforum.org/60539/islamists-very-good-chance-of-conquering-france Paul Stott on Islamist Radicalization in the United Kingdom by Marilyn Stern
Middle East Forum Radio March 5, 2020 https://www.meforum.org/60534/paul-stott-on-islamist-radicalization-in-the-uk |
DEMOGRAPHIC TOUR OF THE WORLD: JOHN MUELLER
ECONOMICS & DEMOGRAPHY
THE BELL CURVE: LINKS BETWEEN CULTURE, BIOLOGY & COGNITION
THE STATE OF WHITE AMERICA
NICHOLAS EBERSTADT - DEMOGRAPHER
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