Until He Ran Out of Fight: How Gorbachev’s Convictions Shaped the End of the Cold War
, by James Graham Wilson

Rumors Are Swirling That Iran’s Khamenei Is Near Death. Time to Pause Nuke Negotiations.
Michael Rubin | 19fortyfive.com

Arabs to Biden: Do Not Sign the Iran Deal, It Will Start a War

The US Should Support the Tigray Defense Forces
Michael Rubin | 19fortyfive.com

The Threat of Terror at Home and Abroad
Katherine Zimmerman | Council on Foreign Relations

New Iran Deal Would Fuel Hezbollah’s Precision-Guided Munitions

National Security Threat: China's Eyes in America

Iraq heading for civil war; US must not take advantag

A New Iran Deal Would Empower Hamas

Invoking the major questions doctrine is the wrong way to enforce nondelegation concerns.
READ MORE ›

Gradually and Then Suddenly: Explaining the Navy’s Strategic Bankruptcy, by Christopher Dougherty ~ from Doyle Hodges

Forming the Grand Strategist According to Shakespeare

China Seeks ‘Naval Outpost’ in Nicaragua To Threaten U.S., Taiwan Warns
By Joel Gehrke, Washington Examiner: "China aspires to open a “naval outpost” in Nicaragua as part of a plan to dominate the Indo-Pacific, Taiwan has warned."
​
Opposite Sides of the COIN:
Understanding Unlikely Insurgent Successes and Failures
By Joshua Damir, Strategy Bridge: "There appears little continuity in what leads insurgents to victory and what results instead in their failure."

Time to Rethink America’s Nuclear Strategy
By Francis J. Gavin, Foreign Affairs: "How to Learn the Right Lessons From the Cold War"

Funding the Indo-Pacific Pivot
By Rob Wittman, War on the Rocks: ". . . U.S. efforts to truly align resources accordingly have been frustrated since President Barack Obama’s administration first acknowledged that a shift was required."

Muqtada al-Sadr Retires: What Next in Iraq? by Seth J. Frantzman
The Jerusalem Post
August 30, 2022
https://www.meforum.org/63512/muqtada-al-sadr-retires-what-next-in-iraq

Iran-Hezbollah Intelligence Center May Help Hamas Target Israel

Contested area of northern Somalia witnesses rare suicide bombing

​Egypt to issue bonds in China’s currency yuan
The US dollar may be losing its dominance in the Middle East to the yuan.

How realistic is Erdogan’s vision for security belt from Syria to Iraq?
 Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan says he is bent on creating an “end-to-end” security belt along Turkey’s southern borders with Syria and Iraq — a vision too ambitious given the political and topographic conditions of the areas in question.

Oman’s economy surges with higher oil prices, fiscal reform
 The Omani economy is benefiting from both higher oil and gas revenues and the country’s fiscal policies and discipline.

Amid increasing tensions between militias, Muqtada al-Sadr calls for reforming the PMU
 Rival Shiite armed factions took their fight to Iraq’s key port city as leaders officially called for calm and closed offices.

Turkey’s inflation tops 80% as poverty deepens
 Even though Turkey’s economy continued to expand in the second quarter, the share of payments to employees dropped to the lowest level since Erdogan’s party came to power two decades ago.

​Power struggle continues in Libya
 Recent deadly clashes have alarmed regional and international powers, as civilians fear displacement and a shortage of medicine and food.

AEI:  SALIFI JIHADI MOVEMENT

The Underestimated Insurgency: African States at Risk for Salafi-Jihadi Insurgencies
Emily Estelle | American Enterprise Institute
The proliferation and expansion of African Salafi-jihadi groups will fuel regional disorder, humanitarian crises, and a persistent and likely increasing global terror threat.
Full Story

The Next Salafi-Jihadi Wave: Capabilities, Resources, and Opportunity

The Economic Cost of Terrorism in Africa
The Underestimated Insurgency: African States at Risk for Salafi-Jihadi Insurgencies
The Next Salafi-Jihadi Wave: Capabilities, Resources, and Opportunity​
​Confronting Islamist Insurgencies in Africa: The Case of the Islamic State in Mozambique

Combating the Islamic State’s Spread in Africa: Assessment and Recommendations for Mozambique

Collapsed Caliphate? Understanding the Islamic State in 2020

What Is the Sahel? | Define

Islamic State conducts second major prison break in Congo

US picks up pace of airstrikes in Somalia

Vasilis Petropoulos writes: Algeria is perhaps in the most critical period in its diplomatic history since the end of the civil war in the 1990s. Pressing challenges on one side and promising opportunities on the other form the current geopolitical environment. Algeria must recognize this, and that as the war in Ukraine continues to reshape broader multilateral relations, Algiers must determine whether it maintains neutrality or drifts further into the revisionist camp—a decision that will affect its position in the regional and the international systems. – Washington Institute

Ruodan Xu writes: Despite its many advantages and Western countries’ support, it is unlikely that India can replace China in the global manufacturing supply chain for the foreseeable future. […]Politically, India’s market restrictions make its business environment less favorable and decrease its industrial labor supply. Meanwhile, protectionist traditions hinder India’s ability to adopt an export-oriented growth model and integrate itself into the global supply chain. – The National Interest

Rupert Stone writes: Many expressed frustration with Pakistan’s role in the twenty-year Afghan conflict and must have hoped that the United States could finally hit delete on the relationship when the war ended. But Islamabad is now emerging as the closest thing the West has to a counterterrorism partner among Afghanistan’s immediate neighbors. – The National Interest

DB Des Roches writes: The battlefield success of the Patriot and THAAD systems is undeniable. These are truly game-changing weapons. But they still rely on trained and adaptable operators who can sense and understand developments in warfare and minimize the confusion of the battlefield. As always in warfare, the victory is dependent upon the soldier as well as his equipment. Hopefully, the professional development of regional air-defense forces will continue to keep pace with equipment improvements. – Middle East Institute

Israeli military forces killed Palestinian militant Ibrahim al-Nabulsi on Tuesday following a prolonged exchange of fire, along with another militant and a 16-year-old. At least 40 others were injured, including four in serious and critical condition, according to Palestinian reports. – Haaretz

• WINEP's Matthew Levitt: Contending with IRGC plots
  

Nilofar Sakhi writes: The Taliban takeover has emboldened terrorist groups and provided a safe haven for their reorganization. Prominent terrorist groups include Tehrek-Taliban Pakistan, an alliance of militant networks with historically close ties to Al Qaeda; Jamaat Ansarullah, an Al Qaeda-linked terrorist organization in Tajikistan; and the Haqqani Network, which has ties to Al Qaeda and is one of the most lethal and sophisticated insurgent groups. – The National Interest

TIMES OF INDIA BLOG: VAJPAYEE & INDIA'S BJP

Five Minutes from Disaster

The ‘forever war’ against the West
​America wins a battle against al Qaeda, Israel against Islamic Jihad

GEOPOLITICAL MONITOR

“Win the War Before the War?”: A French Perspective on Cognitive Warfare, by David Pappalardo

States Take the Initiative
The already-high-stakes 2022 election season will also feature a host of state ballot measures on hot-button issues.

Chinese Leaders Know They Have No Claim to Taiwan
Michael Rubin | National Interest
Joe Biden’s top aides may encourage Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) to back down, but this would be a mistake.
Full Story

• JPost's Seth J. Frantzman: Could Iran become a gas hub with Russian support?
  

If one wants to avoid the pitfalls of integralist or progressivie statism, De Regno’s vision of politics has much to teach us.
READ MORE ›

MARK P. MILLS
All of the Above
The right energy strategy for today’s uncertain conditions doesn’t pick favorites

Why Millennials Are Dropping Out
Joel Kotkin, Unherd

Turkish Aggression Threatens Syria's Most Vulnerable
by Clifford Smith, Richard Ghazal and Diliman Abdulkader
The National Interest
July 20, 2022
https://www.meforum.org/63390/turkish-aggression-threatens-syria-most-vulnerabl

The Liberation of the Arabs From the Global Left
by Hussein Aboubakr Mansour
Tablet Magazine
July 11, 2022
https://www.meforum.org/63384/the-liberation-of-the-arabs-from-the-global-left

War Has Consequences: 20-Year Scars of The Second Intifada

Shaping the future of the world

Explainer: How Sadr's Shiite rivals became largest bloc in Iraq's parliament
General strike in Tunisia prompts warnings of imminent social tension

Ultranationalist lawmaker's popularity soars among Israeli ultra-Orthodox
The ultra-Orthodox parties are more concerned about ultranationalist lawmaker Itamar Ben Gvir, who appears to enjoy growing popularity among their voters, than anti-clerical politicians like Foreign Minister Yair Lapid and Finance Minister Avigdor Liberman.

​Putin: From Frank Sinatra to Leonid Brezhnev  by Amir Taheri 

Arab political party unprepared for new elections in Israel
 If new elections are called this week, the opposition Joint List will be hard pressed to convince its electorate it has its own agenda worth supporting.

No, the West Should Not Appease Erdogan

The Caravan Issue 2235: The End Of The American Era In The Gulf?

A Conservative Revolutionary
Brad Littlejohn | National Affairs
As conservatives today confront unhappy election results, along with rampant atheism and fanaticism in the halls of power, it's time they learned anew from John Jay's serene confidence and tireless labors to give a fractured nation a new lease on life.

Price Stability Is More Than Enough for the Fed—No New Mandates
Paul H. Kupiec | Hill
Assigning the Fed more mandates, especially ones as politically charged as combating climate change, implementing an “equity” agenda, and designing and issuing a new retail Federal Reserve digital dollar, would guarantee it fails on its primary task of achieving price stability with maximum employment.

Michael Rubin writes: His strategy has backfired. Iran has replenished its foreign reserves. Its hijacking of ships and hostage-taking have resumed. Its proxies struck ever deeper at critical infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and its nuclear program is at risk of a breakout. Iranian diplomats avoid meeting their American counterparts directly. At the most recent talks in Qatar, Iranian diplomats showed zero interest in reaching an agreement. – Washington Examiner

Bryan Clark writes: A naval force with greater adaptability, sustainability, and scalability would allow U.S. leaders to surprise Beijing and calibrate responses to Chinese hybrid or gray zone offensives. This would enable an approach to naval operations like that used by U.S. Cyber Command in its strategy of forward defense. By persistently engaging opposing operators and hackers inside their networks, U.S. cyber forces keep adversaries on the defensive, learn enemy tactics and capabilities, and create uncertainty for opposing leaders. – U.S. Naval Institute

THE FRIDAY TIMES, NAJAM SETHI

UK GUARDIAN, IMRAN KHAN

The Divided Kingdom?   by helen dale
Devolution's quasi-federalism may end up cracking the Union apart.
READ MORE ›

In spite of its present difficulties, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland will remain united.
READ MORE ›

Still Divided?
by helen dale
A lawyer's response to psychiatrist, a philosopher, and an historian about the state of the United Kingdom.
READ MORE ›

Russia's Tragic Failure to Reform Its Economy

Avoided the Fate of Russia's Military Contractors, So Far
China's approach to private security contractors is much more limited in scope and effects than Russia's use of private military contractors. But indicators suggest that Chinese planners see benefits in expanding and maturing China's use of private contractors, which creates the potential for dangerous results for China and the rest of the world. Read more »

Building Better Government Acquisition Programs: Q&A with William Shelton​
A "Time Capsule" From Mont Pelerin, 1947
​​

• WINEP’s Dennis Ross and Anna Borshchevskaya: Is it time to get tough with Russia?
  
• ISW's Frederick W. Kagan, Mason Clark, George Barros, and Kateryna Stepanenko: Putin's likely course of action in Ukraine: Updated course of action assessment
  

Seth J. Frantzman writes: Qatar plays a kind of double game, pretending that its interest is merely de-escalation, while also trying to be friends with all sides. […]The question for countries in the region and the US is whether Qatar’s double-game can also actually bring real results or if the talk of de-escalation is also a way to position Qatar as the key to every conflict so as to increase its power and profit. – Jerusalem Post  ​

Dustin Walker writes: For too long, the Pentagon has moved too slowly to achieve its ambitions of a distributed and resilient force posture in the Indo-Pacific, with dangerous consequences for American security. Urgent change at a significant scale is required, and that starts with the secretary of defense declaring, “I am Spike.” – War on the Rocks ​

Erdoğan's Neo-Ottoman Ambitions Turning Eastward  by Burak Bekdil

Turkey’s central bank continues window dressing with currency swaps
Hit by a foreign reserves drain, Turkey’s central bank eyes fresh currency swap deals, including with the central banks of Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Libya.
Read More  

Why Putin Has Not Been Deterred
by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness
Exasperated Americans fear Vladimir Putin is deterred neither by sanctions nor by arms sales but follows only his own sense of cost-to-benefit self-interest.

How Russian moves in Syria are linked to Moscow's Ukraine strategy
 Large-scale exercises in the Mediterranean are meant both to increase capabilities in Syria and to send a message to NATO.

Iranian Attacks in Iraq Reflect Weakness, Disarray  by Jonathan Spyer
The Jerusalem Post
January 20, 2022
https://www.meforum.org/62961/iranian-attacks-in-iraq-reflect-weakness-disarray

The Missing Component in US Counterterrorism Efforts in Africa
Michael Rubin | RealClearDefense

DRIVERS IN NEAR EAST FOR POST 2022  Read Outlook  
Autumn 2021 Issue

US Sanctions Bosnian Serb Leader Dodik.  The US Treasury Department imposed new targeted sanctions on Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik and other officials for acts of corruption and destabilization in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The department also sanctioned media outlet Alternativna Television for links to Dodik. Bosnian Serb leaders have been working to withdraw Serbian territories from state institutions, reviving concerns of possible Bosnian disintegration.  
Al Jazeera Politico Reuters

North Korea Says Hypersonic Missile Tested.  North Korea claims it successfully launched a hypersonic missile on Wednesday as part of its “strategic” military modernization efforts, according to state media. It is the North’s second known test-launch of a hypersonic missile, with its first occurring last September. The launch indicates Pyongyang will continue to focus on military development rather than return to stalled disarmament talks.  Associated Press Reuters Wall Street Journa

The new conquistadores  U.S. adversaries are becoming South American hegemons

The Case For Colonialism In The Middle East
by Bruce Gilley via The Caravan Notebook
Modern European colonialism in the Middle East took many forms and intensities, making impossible any generalizations about its effects. Therefore, the dominant anticolonial mindset that grips studies of the region is misplaced. Any case for colonialism in the Middle East rests on evidence from places that were creations of colonialism or where deterioration of the colonial legacy has been directly proportional to the degree of postcolonial catastrophe.

Why Is America Financing the Chinese War Machine

Gordon G. Chang writes: The Chinese military, from all indications, is now building a nuclear “war-fighting” capability, probably hoping to intimidate others into submission. […]There is no defense against hypersonic glide vehicles. Soon, China will be able to drop a nuke on America in the blink of an eye. Americans think strategic nuclear weapons are unusable. Chinese strategists obviously do not agree. – Newsweek ​

Succeeding Xi Jinping by Nan Li

China's Growing Maritime Empire

What to Expect When You’re Expecting a National Defense Strategy 
by Thomas Spoehr, Bradley Bowman, Bryan Clark, and Mackenzie Eaglen  

Algerian court sentences two ex-PMs 
An Algerian court on Monday handed down additional prison sentences for two former prime ministers charged in a major corruption case. Ahmed Ouyahia and Abdelmalek Sellal were sentenced to six and five years, respectively, for money laundering, wasting public money and abuse of office. In December 2019, a court sentenced Ouyahia to 15 years in prison and Sellal to 12 years on charges of corruption in financing the election campaign of late President Abdelaziz Bouteflika. Mass protests erupted in 2019 against Bouteflika’s bid for a fifth term, forcing him to resign. Despite his exit from politics, Algerians continued to demand the trial of figures linked to the former regime.  Read More  ​

ALGERIAN PRESIDENT DIES

To Deter China, Relearn The Lost Art of Dissuasion
Threats of denial or punishment will not deter a peer adversary fighting at home.

AUKUS: Good Goals, Bad Implementation
Now begins the real work for the United States and its democratic allies: cooperating to strengthen their eroding deterrence in the Indo-Pacific

Nagorno-Karabakh: A year of US failure in the South Caucasus
Michael Rubin | The National Interest

Treat Pakistan like China on military and sensitive exports
Michael Rubin | Washington Examiner

Going Back to the Future on Defense Acquisition
By Christine Fox & Sarah Stevenson , Proceedings: "The U.S. Navy’s submarine community was in near-crisis; its long superiority in acoustics detection fading."

China Tests Both Taiwan and the U.S.
By Seth Cropsey & Harry Halem, RealClearDefense: "PLA incursions into Taiwanese airspace should come as no surprise to observers of international events.  In 2020, PLA aircraft violated Taiwanese airspace 380 times on 91 separate days."

America Cannot Take On China and Russia Simultaneously
By David T. Pyne, The National Interest: “U.S. concerns about the risks of fighting a coming war with Russia and China are well-grounded, given it is unprepared to fight even a purely conventional war with them.” 

The Inevitability of Tragedy
By Mark Schell, Strategy Bridge: “Few public figures generated as much controversy in the last half of the 20th century as Kissinger, a man admired by some and reviled by others for his substantial role in shaping U.S. foreign policy."

Five Eyes wide shut
Zack Cooper | Korea on Point
Leaders in Washington and Seoul must be realistic that adding South Korea to the Five Eyes is ultimately unlikely. Instead, Seoul’s best opportunity for closer intelligence sharing is with its neighbors in East Asia, not the Five Eyes countries.
Full Story

Tunisians protest president’s expansion of power  
Thousands of Tunisians took to the streets on Sunday to protest the president’s recent power grab, calling on him to resign. Last week, President Kais Saied announced that he will rule by decree for two months, ignoring parts of the constitution. In July, Saied suspended parliament and ousted a number of Cabinet officials, including the prime minister, in response to sweeping protests against the government’s failure to address the coronavirus pandemic and mounting debt. Saied’s opponents have described these measures as a coup. The developments reflect the most serious political crisis in the North African country since the 2011 Arab Spring. 
Read More  ​

When Intentions Fall Short
Research Fellow Joe Felter characterizes US involvement in Afghanistan as two wars, writing, “One was by necessity: safeguarding America from transnational terrorist attacks. The other was a war of choice: bringing greater freedoms and opportunities to Afghanistan.” John Yoo, visiting fellow, argues that the second mission, the one of choice, was a failure because it “was based on the assumption that any political and cultural environment would be receptive to the attractions of liberal democracy, capitalism, and international human-rights law. . . . But nothing in the political culture or traditions of Afghanistan . . . was favorable to such a radical constitutional transformation.” He suggests that US elites should finally learn “that external force rarely succeeds in bringing about the constitutional transformation of a society so long as it remains culturally resistant.”

Senior Fellow Peter Berkowitz offers an alternative conclusion to the belief that “promoting democracy and freedom are beyond America’s capabilities [and] imposing destabilizing practices and institutions on local populations have no place in a responsible US foreign policy.” Berkowitz argues that to secure “the conditions conducive to freedom at home,” US foreign policy must be grounded in America’s needs and priorities. It must also recognize that promoting democracy and promoting freedom are separable and distinct achievements and, in many cases, severely limited. Additionally, the US must improve its understanding of other nations’ cultures as well as rededicating itself to the principles of freedom on which the United States is based. Listen to senior fellows H. R. McMaster and Victor Davis Hanson discuss the “lost war” on Uncommon Knowledge

​The Race for Tech Superiority
As China modernizes its nuclear arsenal and the US reviews its nuclear posture, America should not lose sight of the bigger race, explains Rose Gottemoeller, research fellow. “China may be a rising nuclear power, but its bigger agenda is building up its science and technology prowess.” She suggests that nuclear weapons should not be the primary focus of our efforts and money, but instead “the new and emerging technologies that are rapidly maturing into military assets. Innovations in artificial intelligence, big data analysis, quantum computing and quantum sensing and biotechnology are where future defense capacity is being born. The Chinese have sworn to beat us at acquiring and exploiting every one of them.” She calls for US government research funds to “push the frontiers of science and innovation.” For more about risks being posed by collaborative research with authoritarian nations, see the China Global Sharp Power’s (CGSP) essay “Global Engagement: Rethinking Risk in the Research Enterprise.”

 Turkey: NATO's Pro-Russian, Taliban-Friendly Ally  by Burak Bekdil
The Gatestone Institute
September 24, 2021
https://www.meforum.org/62683/turkey-natos-pro-russian-taliban-friendly-ally

From The Middle East To The Sahel And Throughout Africa: How Russia Pushes Western Powers Towards The Exit
by Isabelle Lasserre via The Caravan
Sub-Saharan Africa, the Sahel, the Middle East, Afghanistan. Like an octopus, Russia has extended its tentacles to every crisis riddled corner, filling the void created by the withdrawal of Western forces. Occasionally partnering with Turkey to better share the imperial burden, Vladimir Putin has once again inserted Moscow as a major player on the international scene. To what extent can it take the place of democratic powers?

• Iran’s secret cyber files
  
• Influential voices in Egypt, Saudi Arabia and UAE celebrate Tunisia turmoil as blow to political Islam
  
• WINEP’s Sarah Feuer: Political crisis in Tunisia: U.S. response Options
  

• China appears to be building new silos for nuclear missiles, researchers say
  
  
• Heritage Foundation’s Peter Brookes and Walker Venable: 5 things that should be on agenda for US-Russia strategic stability dialogue
  
  ​Russian aircraft manufacturer Sukhoi showed off its new Checkmate jet during the MAKS 2021 aviation show last week, presenting it as a fifth-generation fighter. – Defense News 
  

The U.S. decision to withdraw from Afghanistan by September 2021 is provoking a victorious narrative among Salafi-jihadi clerics and some Shi’ite militants in Iraq as both groups exploit the withdrawal not only to motivate fighters to never abandon jihad or, in the case of the Shi’ite militias, to continue targeting the U.S. interests in the region, but also to discredit rival groups. – Middle East Media Research Institute  ​

Now Is the Time to Engage Al-Shabaab. Religious Leaders and Clan Elders Can Help. 

The Sahelian Matrix Of Political Violence
by Heni Nsaibia, Clionadh Raleigh via The Caravan
The Sahel is one of the most active conflict theatres on the African continent and has become a major node in the "Global War on Terror'' over the past twenty years. After nearly a decade of foreign military intervention through overlapping counterterrorism, stabilization, and military and security training missions, the conflict is often referred to as a ''Forever War'' alongside other Western-led military interventions in the Middle East and Africa. As military campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan draw to a close, attention is increasingly shifting to Africa as the next battlefront— where the Sahel remains a key geopolitical dilemma.

Islamic State kills hundreds in massacres across the Sahel

Biden's Emerging Foreign Policy  L'Informale
February 19, 2021
http://www.danielpipes.org/20253/biden-emerging-foreign-policy

• Somalia. Security is deteriorating in Somalia’s capital as the country faces a constitutional crisis. Al Shabaab is waging media and attack campaigns intended to capitalize on Somalis’ anti-government grievances.
• Kenya. Al Shabaab is exerting increasing social control in parts of northeastern Kenya.
• Ethiopia. The Tigray conflict in northern Ethiopia is escalating as regional forces challenge the federal government for control of the Tigray region’s capital. Tensions over contested territory are rising between Ethiopia and Sudan.
• Sahel. Al Qaeda’s Sahel branch is expanding its networks in coastal West African countries. The group is also pressuring counterterrorism forces in Mali through attacks and propaganda while increasing its influence over civilian populations in central Mali.
• Libya. Foreign militaries are becoming increasingly entrenched in Libya and remain likely spoilers to an enduring political resolution, despite short-term progress.

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