CounterStrikeMedia - EMERGING THREATS U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY

TURKEY'S REGIONAL AMBITIONS GROW

3/14/2021

THE QUAD & RARE EARTH METALS

Getting the Quad Right Is Biden’s Most Important Job
By James Mattis, Michael Auslin, and Joe Felter via Foreign PolicyJames Mattis, Michael Auslin, and Joe Felter write that the Biden administration is wise to continue with its predecessor’s vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific region by engaging in talks with fellow leaders of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), which includes Australia, India, and Japan. They list four ways in which cooperation can be strengthened in the informal Quad alliance: enhancing maritime security to deter Chinese aggression in the South and East China Seas; reducing dependency on China’s economy by building supply chains on the strengths of its members’ advanced free-market economies; achieving an edge in the next generation of telecommunications technology; and drawing on the diversity of the alliance to advance diplomacy with other nations in Asia.

Turkey Signals Sweeping Regional Ambitions
By Dr. James M. Dorsey, March 11, 2021
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: A nationalist Turkish television station with close ties to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has dug up a 12-year-old map that projects Turkey’s sphere of influence in 2050 as stretching from southeastern Europe on the northern coast of the Mediterranean and Libya on its southern shore across North Africa, the Gulf, and the Levant into the Caucasus and Central Asia.
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the long war grows: africa

2/21/2021

Islamic State kills hundreds in massacres across the Sahel

Biden's Emerging Foreign Policy L'Informale
February 19, 2021
http://www.danielpipes.org/20253/biden-emerging-foreign-policy

Somalia. Security is deteriorating in Somalia’s capital as the country faces a constitutional crisis. Al Shabaab is waging media and attack campaigns intended to capitalize on Somalis’ anti-government grievances.
Kenya. Al Shabaab is exerting increasing social control in parts of northeastern Kenya.
Ethiopia. The Tigray conflict in northern Ethiopia is escalating as regional forces challenge the federal government for control of the Tigray region’s capital. Tensions over contested territory are rising between Ethiopia and Sudan.
Sahel. Al Qaeda’s Sahel branch is expanding its networks in coastal West African countries. The group is also pressuring counterterrorism forces in Mali through attacks and propaganda while increasing its influence over civilian populations in central Mali.
Libya. Foreign militaries are becoming increasingly entrenched in Libya and remain likely spoilers to an enduring political resolution, despite short-term progress.

READ THE LATEST EDITION HERE

BIDEN GETS ROLLED WITH FOREIGN POLICY

2/12/2021

Biden Cannot Allow the Taliban to Destroy Trump's Peace Legacy

China, unquarantined
The coronavirus pandemic underscores the catastrophic consequences of setting the Chinese Communist Party loose in the liberal international order — but many other unfamiliar new threats also lie in store, explain Dan Blumenthal and Nicholas Eberstadt.

Beijing’s misapplication of international law in the disputed waters is more complex than it seems, explains Oriana Skylar Mastro.
READ MORE

Russia seeks to outplay the US in Libya
While Russia's preferred candidates lost in last week's vote for interim leadership in Libya, Moscow still has a strategy for reinforcing its influence in the country.

Turkey’s risk grade far from safe
Turkey’s risk premium has sharply decreased over the past several months, but an array of economic and political factors threatens to undo the trend.

What’s next for Turkey in Libya after election of new interim leaders?
Universal goodwill messages to Libya’s new interim leadership indicate how complex the Libyan file has become for all foreign actors in the country ahead of potentially clamorous elections in December.

Russia, Iran compete for influence in Syria via private security companies
Private security companies in Syria with ties to Russian and Iranian forces are busily recruiting young men with attractive salaries.

BIDEN'S DOD ON CHINA: here. readout of the phone call.

Want to Redefine Readiness? Here's Where to Start // Seamus Daniels: Two Joint Chiefs are on the right track.

Pentagon Launches China Policy Review. President Biden launched a Department of Defense task force to evaluate the United States-China rivalry and produce comprehensive China policy recommendations in the next four months. Al Jazeera Axios South China Morning Post

DOD Budget Battles Loom Over Nukes. Progressive lobbyists and advocates for nuclear disarmament are pressuring the Biden administration to curtail the Air Force’s plans to upgrade its 400 Minuteman III nuclear missile arsenal. The fight over the 100 million dollar ‘Ground Based Strategic Deterrent Contract’ is expected to be the most contentious DOD budget fight this year. Politico

CHINA & THE BIDEN'S

2/6/2021

MULLAH'S IN IRAN NEED MONEY: EXTORTION RACKET BEGINS AGAIN & U.K. PM JOHNSON NEEDS PATHWAY OUT OF LOCKDOWN FAST

1/19/2021

Joe Biden should reverse Trump’s decision on Somalia
Katherine Zimmerman | Critical Threats Project
The new Joe Biden administration should reverse the Donald Trump administration’s shortsighted 11th-hour decision to withdraw from Somalia to stave off a worst-case possibility.

Saudis Expanding US Military Access to Airfields, Port, to Counter Iran // Katie Bo Williams: The year-old initiative is intended to give CENTCOM "more options" in a fight, general reveals.

The Forgotten People Fighting the Forever War // Jessica Donati, The Atlantic: A devastating incident in Afghanistan shows the perils of relying on Special Operations alone to fight the nation's battles.

Nuclear Extortion: Mullahs Want More Concessions from Biden
by Majid Rafizadeh

The Pernicious Effects of Popular Nuclear Mythology
by Stephen Blank and Peter Huessy

US War Surge Production Too Slow, CSIS Finds
The United States could not make enough military equipment fast enough to sustain its military in the event of a major war. While much thought has been given to how a great power conflict might erupt or play out, far less has been written on how the U.S. industrial base could sustain U.S. wartime equipment…

‘Made In USA’ Won’t Secure Supply Chain Vs. China: Solarium
Rather than try to mine strategic minerals, build key technologies, and develop high-tech talent entirely on its own, the US should work together with trusted allies like Australia, the Cyberspace Solarium Commission and other experts argue.

Johnson's Days Look Numbered Unless He Can End Lockdowns
By STEPHEN MacLEAN, Special to the Sun | January 18, 2021
https://www.nysun.com/foreign/johnsons-days-looking-numbered-unless-hes-able/91394/

Turkey Continues to Honor Its Racists
By Dr. Efrat Aviv, January 26, 2021
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The true danger facing modern Turkey is not religious extremism but ultra-nationalism. While other nations tear down their monuments to racists, Turkey continues to honor its own.
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ISRAELI EXISTENTIAL THREAT: DENIAL

1/12/2021

Israel Is Facing a Domestic Existential Threat
By Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen, January 12, 2021
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The Israeli government is living in denial about the growing violent anarchy in the Negev, the Galilee, and in certain cities. Putting a stop to this phenomenon, which is developing into an existential threat, requires an all-out effort to enhance the power of the military and the police alongside appropriate preparations by the State Attorney’s Office and the legal system to restore sovereignty and governance.
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Debating Yad Vashem
January 18, 2021
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The recent attempt by PM Netanyahu to appoint former IDF general and cabinet minister Effi Eitam as chairman of the Yad Vashem Holocaust Remembrance Center has stirred a heated public debate about the Center’s depiction of the Holocaust in recent years and its implications.
Two BESA associates have joined the debate.
Continue to full article ->

Al Qaeda in Iran–and Afghanistan

Israel’s Air Force attacks warehouses used to ‘store and stage Iranian weapons’ in Syria

Why Hasn't Anyone Attacked Iran's Nuclear Sites

Can Nigel Farage Reform the Tories After Brexit?
By STEPHEN MacLEAN, Special to the Sun | January 11, 2021
https://www.nysun.com/foreign/can-nigel-farage-reform-the-tories-after-brexit/91389/

Intra-Party Feud Of the Democrats Is the Key Battle
By IRA STOLL, Special to the Sun | January 11, 2021
https://www.nysun.com/national/in-divided-america-the-rift-to-watch-is-among/91388/

Our So-Called Foreign Policy: Trumply Deranged Coverage of a Trump Security Policy Win

Israel's Supreme Court Vindicates MEF News from the Middle East Forum
https://www.meforum.org/61924/israel-supreme-court-vindicates-mef

Sunk Costs In Iraq And Afghanistan
by David R. Henderson via EconLog
Will Joe Biden have the guts and/or the sense to recognize sunk costs?

The Big Lesson Of 2020: Government Failure
by David R. Henderson via EconLog
The year 2020 gave us a huge amount of evidence about the relative merits of government intervention and free markets. The bottom line is that government failed massively and free markets triumphed spectacularly (with one major exception) within the constraints that government placed on them. The one apparent exception to government failure is Operation Warp Speed but, as we shall see, that apparent exception may not be an exception at all.

U.S. CHINA

Experts note that if the US is serious about refocusing on great-power competition with China and Russia and away from the Middle East, then withholding high-end reinforcements from the Persian Gulf is the hard call American leaders need to make. This argument is dangerous, argues Fred Kagan in a Hill op-ed. The US cannot allow its policy on China and Russia to starve the Middle East of essential military resources amid a crisis. As long as the US has a diplomatic presence in the region, the US must continue to deter escalation and prepare to protect its people. Learn more here.

US-China competition may not be a “superpower marathon,” but a decade-long sprint. In an AEI report, Michael Beckley and Hal Brands argue that the US will need a “danger zone” strategy geared toward preventing China from achieving major gains that could alter the long-term balance of power with respect to technology and Taiwan. Washington must harden its base infrastructure in Asia, help Taiwan fight asymmetrically, take part in long-term endeavors to reform the World Trade Organization, and reinvest in the domestic foundations of American innovation.
Read the full report here.

Has the Chinese century begun, or is trouble brewing on the horizon? In a new AEI video, Michael Beckley dives into the hard numbers to reveal China's challenges in the decades ahead. He concludes that as China’s economic growth slows, it will continue to crack down on domestic dissent and deter foreign rivals from exploiting their financial woes. The United States must firmly but patiently contain China with a careful blend of deterrence, reassurance, and damage limitation. Watch the video here.

If Beijing poses such a clear global threat, then why has Washington struggled to build a coalition to counter its rise? In a Foreign Policy op-ed, Zack Cooper and Hal Brands debunk the belief that a single alliance will emerge to counter China. Instead, the US must forge a geostrategic coalition of countries in the Indo-Pacific, an economic alliance, a technological alliance, and a governance coalition. Unless the US adopts a more sophisticated approach to coalition building, it will be stuck trying to re-create a world that no longer exists. Continue here.

BIDEN & CHINA

Joe Biden will rediscover Russia when he assumes the presidency. In a Dispatch op-ed, Leon Aron notes that Biden should beware of the pull to befriend or even change Russia. Attempting to change countries’ behavior from the outside usually fails. However, the US doesn’t have to wait for a regime change to moderate hostile policies. Joe Biden’s first priority in his discovery of Russia should be readying credible, quick, and robust responses. Learn more here.

Europe is divided by two different views on the threat Russia poses. In Sweden, increased preparedness for its aggression has produced larger defense budgets. In contrast, Germany and much of Western Europe seem far less concerned over such a “hard power” threat from Russia, explain Gary Schmitt and Craig Kennedy in a Hill op-ed. The new Joe Biden administration, with its clear desire to rebuild transatlantic ties, will look to Germany as the keystone to those efforts. Berlin could do well to look to Stockholm for an idea over what Washington could ask of its partners in Europe. Read here.

BIDEN & GERMANY

No easy reset for US relations with Germany

The Faultline Between Futurists and Traditionalists in National Security
by John Speed Meyers, David Jackson

Something Old, Something New
by Francis J. Gavin

Why Israel's Massive Radar Deal With Slovakia Matters by Seth J. Frantzman
The National Interest
January 14, 2021
https://www.meforum.org/61940/israels-massive-radar-deal-with-slovakia

THE LONG WAR: FOR AFRICA

1/8/2021

Rwanda and the African Union: The Promise of Increased US-Africa Engagement
Featuring H. R. McMaster and Paul Kagame via BattlegroundsAfrican nations’ efforts to expand economic prosperity and defeat jihadist extremism underline the continent’s need for strong and stable governance, argues Rwandan president Paul Kagame in the latest episode of Battlegrounds, Hoover’s foreign policy video series hosted by Fouad and Michelle Ajami Senior Fellow H. R. McMaster.

Unresolved Border Dispute Escalates Tensions. Tensions between Ethiopia and Sudan continue to escalate following an ambush and military movements along the contested al-Fashaga frontier. Al-Jazeera

Mogadishu Siege Ends. Somali security forces ended yesterday’s hotel siege by al-Shabab militants. Five civilians were killed, including a former Somali Army general, along with four militants. Associated Press Al-Jazeera

Tigray Situation Continues to Deteriorate. Despite the capture or killing of significant TPLF leaders, fighting continues in Ethiopia’s Tigray region. Refugees have been caught in battles between government forces and rebel militants. Sudan, currently preoccupied with its own border dispute with Ethiopia, could be key to sustaining or inhibiting the TPLF’s cause.
Al-Jazeera BBC

AEI & TERROR & THE SAHEL: READ THE LATEST EDITION HERE
Vicious cycles: How disruptive states and extremist movements fill power vacuums and fuel each other

Russia crowds out Turkey in post-war Caucasus
Having brokered a cease-fire deal between Azerbaijan and Armenia, Vladimir Putin is now giving priority to the development of transport links in the conflict-ridden region.

Ethiopia’s worsening crisis threatens regional, Mideast security
With the Horn of Africa increasingly becoming an integral part of the Middle East’s security landscape, the fallout from Ethiopia's current crisis will have a significant impact on states of the region.

Nile dam talks hit yet another snarl
The latest round of talks between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia over the controversial Nile River dam again collapsed amid Sudanese objections and calls for African Union experts to take on a greater role in resolving the dispute.

What can Turkey expect from Qatari-Gulf deal?
Turkey feels vindicated as al-Ula Declaration ends the blockade against Qatar.

Egypt seeks to bypass Turkish presence in Senegal
In an attempt to counter Turkey’s expansion in West Africa, Egypt and the UAE seek to consolidate their ties with Senegal, the gateway to West Africa, by pushing forward new investments in the African country.

THE U.K. MOVES BEYOND BREXIT TO GOVERNANCE

1/8/2021

EXAMINING IRAN'S BREAKOUT TIME FOR NUKES & BIDEN'S APPEASEMENT

1/8/2021

MERKEL IS OVER, WHAT'S NEXT FOR GERMAN POLITICS & U.S. QUITS SOMALIA

12/19/2020

The U.S. withdraws from Somalia

The Taliban is using magnetic ‘sticky bombs’ to assassinate Afghan officials
(Task & Purpose) Magnetic bombs have killed at least 10 Afghan government officials in the last several weeks.

THOR: Air Force tests counter-drone microwave in Africa
(Breaking Defense) The Air Force is testing its prototype drone-killing microwave, the Tactical High Power Microwave Operational Responder (THOR), “in a real-world setting” in Africa, says Richard Joseph, the Air Force’s chief scientist.

10 years on, Tunisian emotions mixed in birthplace of Arab Spring
(Al-Monitor) Ten years after the first Arab Spring protests erupted in the central Tunisian city of Sidi Bouzid, the locals are still suffering economic hardships amid a lack of government support.

AEI's favorite books of 2020
John Konicki | AEIdeas

CHINESE MILITARY BASES IN U.S. HEMISPHERE

12/12/2020

Chinese Military Bases in The Caribbean? by Lawrence A. Franklin

The Case for a Quadripolar World
Daron Acemoglu offers an imperfect but preferable alternative to the emerging Sino-American hegemonic rivalry.

The Infrastructure Spending Challenge
Kenneth Rogoff cautions against the view that large investment projects will necessarily boost long-term growth.

"U.S. launches airstrikes as it argues Shabaab is ‘contained’ in Somalia,"
Bill Roggio and Caleb Weiss, FDD's Long War Journal

U.S. imposes sanctions on Turkey over 2017 purchase of Russian missile defenses

Michael Rubin writes: That Pakistan should have relations with communist China is not the problem. After all, it was through Pakistan’s offices that Nixon-era “Ping Pong” diplomacy and Secretary of State Henry Kissinger’s secret trip to Beijing became possible. There is a qualitative difference, however, between maintaining good neighborly relations and the wholesale betrayal of both Pakistani sovereignty and, given the ongoing genocide against the Uyghurs, Islam as well. Perhaps not since Vidkun Quisling has there been a politician who has so willingly and enthusiastically sold out his country’s sovereignty. Sharif came close, but Khan has surpassed even his example. – The National Interest

Mike Rogers writes: We should realize the diversity and challenges of these countries in Africa, and use all the levers of statecraft to enable economic development, build stronger education and health systems, and end political corruption. So a smart and comprehensive foreign policy toward Africa must be part of our national security and economic strategy. At the end of the day, it is part of the great power competition that the United States must win. – The Hill

MOTHER RUSSIA EXPANDS, THE POST REAGAN ORDER FAILS

11/20/2020

China's Military Incursions Around Taiwan Aren't A Sign Of Imminent Attack
by Kharis Templeman via The Diplomat
Instead, China’s military bravado represents the end state of a failed strategy.

Last week, Armenia accepted a Russia- and Turkey-backed cease-fire, ending the 45-day war with Azerbaijan. Many are outraged, but the anger is warranted, notes Michael Rubin in a National Interest op-ed. Armenia lost much of southern Nagorno-Karabakh. Moreover, the deal calls for the deployment of Russian and Turkish troops along the lines of control. For now, Azerbaijan might celebrate, and Armenia will lick its wounds, but by engaging in ethnic cleansing, Azerbaijan has set the stage for a new chapter in the conflict. Read more here.

Iran's Advances in Latin Americaby Gabriel Andrade
Middle East Quarterly
Fall 2020 (view PDF)
https://www.meforum.org/61462/iran-advances-in-latin-america

Hoover Institution Press Releases A Hinge Of History: Governance In An Emerging New World, By George P. Shultz And James Timbie
via Hoover Daily Report
The Hoover Institution has published A Hinge of History: Governance in an Emerging New World by Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford Distinguished Fellow George P. Shultz and Annenberg Distinguished Visiting Fellow James Timbie.

America Must Reshape Its Future With Nagorno-Karabakh
by Russell A. Berman via National Interest
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict may yet provide America an opening for an indirect approach to Turkey, while also pushing back against Russian expansionism.

Salafi-jihadi militants are exploiting the growing security vacuum in Ethiopia. Ethiopia’s intelligence service claimed to have arrested 14 militants linked to either al Qaeda affiliate al Shabaab or the Islamic State on November 14 for plotting attacks across Ethiopia, including in the capital.
READ THE LATEST EDITION HERE

Pacific Century: Look, Up In The Sky
interview with Kenneth Wilsbach via The Pacific Century
America’s Air Chief in the Pacific Talks About China.

HOW THE U.S. MANAGES CHINA; PETROL MONARCHIES COLLAPSING; & A LOOK AT U.S. CIVIL MILITARY RELATIONS; FAILING BUSINESS MODELS OF U.S. UNIVERSITIES

11/10/2020

Hal Brands explains that America cannot compete with China if it abandons the liberal order that China’s behavior threatens. When Trump’s presidency ends, prevailing in a US-China rivalry will require reinvesting in, rather than undermining, the liberal order Trump has scorned. Read here.

A SecDef Flournoy's policy priorities? She laid them out in a July oped in Defense One with co-author Kathleen Hicks, starting with the threats: "The coronavirus pandemic lays bare the fragility of our health security. Climate change threatens generations of Americans. And authoritarian states are developing sophisticated weaponry, flouting other nations' sovereignty, killing, jailing, and interning their own people, and leveraging modern technology to undermine our democracy."
Her three-part solution: "First, we must secure America's edge in the global economy by investing more substantially in the drivers of U.S. competitiveness: science and technology, research and development, STEM education, access to higher education, 21st century infrastructure like 5G-capable networks, clean energy, and a robust public health system. We also need a smart immigration policy. The United States should once again welcome foreign-born talent that pose no risks to our national security and encourage them to stay and build enterprises here in America. Second, we must repair the damage to our alliances...Third, we need a national security enterprise that is matched to future challenges…" Read the piece here.

It is tempting to assert that American policymakers should reset the US-China relationship on reciprocal terms. In a RealClearWorld op-ed, Zack Cooper and Aine Tyrrell note that reciprocity plays into Beijing’s hands in three ways. First, reciprocity can appear to excuse Beijing’s censorship and disinformation. Second, it allows China to determine the overall nature of the competition. Third, it risks undermining the very freedoms at the heart of American democracy. The reality is that espousing democratic values on the international stage is only effective if the US leads by example at home. Continue here.

The China problem that has been exposed because of COVID-19 is a subset of a more serious one. Much of the global infrastructure built in the wake of World War II such as the United Nations, NATO, and the European Union is aged, sclerotic, corrupt, and incapable of addressing the challenges of the 21st century, argues Danielle Pletka in a Horizons article. Failure to reform these institutions will eventually signal their waning power, and with their fading will go the prosperity and peace we have come to take for granted. Read the full article here.

Joe Biden has said he is committed to rejoining the Iran Nuclear Deal. Enthusiasm for reengaging with the Islamic Republic should not blind Biden to China’s presence in Iran’s Chahbahar port, notes Michael Rubin in a National Interest op-ed. It would be unfortunate if, in its efforts to restart the Iranian nuclear deal, Biden’s team inadvertently bolstered Chinese interests in the Indian Ocean basin when neither Iran’s nor China’s leaders appear sincere in their desire for rapprochement and to respect the post–World War II liberal order. Read here.

For the Gulf Arab states, the twin crises of COVID-19 and the collapse of oil prices have accelerated ongoing trends to differentiate their economic policies and force more aggressive responses to demands for job creation and market liberalization, explains Karen Young in a Global Discourse publication. The pandemic has complicated the dueling priorities of shrinking public-sector payrolls and spurring domestic demand. What emerges are trade-offs that reveal leadership priorities, targeted support, and important distinctions in the Gulf Cooperation Council’s ever-weakening body. Read more here.

Ethiopia is sliding into a civil war. In a new Critical Threats Project op-ed, Emily Estelle argues that the humanitarian consequences of such a conflict would be massive. A broader conflict could lead to famine and even greater displacement. In addition, Al Shabaab and other Salafi-jihadi groups are positioned to benefit from Ethiopia’s crisis. A civil war risks creating an environment for prolonged proxy warfare. The international community must act now. Continue here.

In a world where the US faces two major revisionist powers, Russia and China, and threats from Iran, ISIS, and North Korea, a critical edge for America is its global network of allies and strategic partners. In a new “In 60 Seconds” video, Gary Schmitt explains why assessing our allies capabilities is crucial to advancing the safety and strength of the United States. Watch the video here. RSVP to the event here.

Do those who fight America’s wars ever think civilians truly understand and appreciate their experiences? In a War on the Rocks op-ed, Kori Schake and Aine Tyrrell review Phil Klay’s novel “Missionaries” and argue that the wars US soldiers fight change the way the world sees America and how America sees itself in the world. So why do soldiers continue to fight America’s battles? Although the troops involved in the war of “Missionaries” resent being underappreciated by society, they take pride in fighting, are drawn to the heightened sensations experienced in war, and — if nothing else — see it as their job. Read the review here.

Should the former vice president wish to carry that promise over to foreign policy, he ought to lead a bipartisan effort to stop the Azerbaijani assault on Nagorno-Karabakh, argues Michael Rubin in a National Interest op-ed. Azerbaijan has shown the insincerity of both its counterterror commitments and its pledge to pursue a peaceful resolution of its dispute with Armenia. If Biden is victorious, he needs to establish a bipartisan coalition to end Azerbaijan’s free pass and descent into terror complicity. Continue here.

Is Iran Sending Weapons to Venezuela? And How Is the U.S. Responding? An Iranian cargo plane gets stranded in Senegal on its way to Caracas.

The Failing Business Model of American Universities
Eric Jansen, Quillette

ETHIOPIA: CIVIL WAR BEGINS

11/10/2020

How a Fiercely Christian Nation Became Fanatically Islamic by Raymond Ibrahim
Raymondibrahim.com
November 5, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/61756/how-fiercely-christian-egypt-became-islamic

AEI

Civil war is breaking out in Africa’s second largest country | Emily Estelle | November 4, 2020.

FAVORABLE DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS DOMINATE US-AFRICAN STRATEGIC RELATIONS; turkey goes rogue & how sudan GOT TO YES

10/20/2020

HOOVER: STRATEGIKA, CRISIS IN EASTERN MED

Palestinians: What Needs to Be Done by Khaled Abu Toameh

AFPC’s Ilan A. Berman: America’s Iran policy heads toward a crossroads

"Why Are You Killing Christians?" Trump Asks Nigeria's President by Raymond Ibrahim

American Election: Endgame for Party System? by Amir Taheri

James Barnett writes: In order to be competitive in Africa in the long-term, the US will ultimately need to focus more on African needs and interests than on Chinese behavior. Forging stronger ties across Africa, the world’s fastest growing continent in terms of population, is not simply something that great power competition necessitates. It is a smart move in its own right. – Hudson Institute

Erdoğan's Costly "Make Turkey Great Again" Program
By Burak Bekdil, October 25, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's "Make Turkey Great Again" campaign has come with military, diplomatic, geostrategic, and economic costs. Turkey's posturing as a military might has been met with a Moody's downgrade of Turkey's credit rating to B2, putting the country on a level with Egypt, Jamaica, and Rwanda.
Continue to full article ->

Sudan: The Three Yeses
Editorial of The New York Sun | October 23, 2020
https://www.nysun.com/editorials/sudan-the-three-yeses/91311/
President Trump's latest peace deal related to Israel -- announced today with Sudan -- is hard to appreciate fully without reference to the Khartoum resolution of 1967. It was issued at a summit of the Arab League at Sudan's capital after the Jewish state emerged as the victor in the Six-Day War. The resolution came to be called "the three nos" -- "no peace with Israel, no recognition of Israel, no negotiations with it."
Continue Reading

One Term of ‘Maximum Pressure’ on North Korea
A new book from H.R. McMaster offers a look back at Trump's attempted containment and wooing of Kim Jong-un.

Israel’s military steps up campaign against Iran and its proxies in southern Syria
IDF military operations continue in southern Syria against Iranian military entrenchment near the Golan border.

Beijing’s new world order
Clifford D. May — The Washington Times
For countless centuries, tribes have fought and conquered other tribes, nations have fought and conquered other nations, empires have fought and conquered other empires. After World War II, a different future was imagined. The United States created the hopefully named “United Nations.” Americans began to build what would become known as the “liberal international rules-based order.” When the Soviet Union disintegrated, America was left as what Charles Krauthammer termed “the unipolar power.” Read more

How Big Tech factors into the US-China geopolitical competition
Emily de La Bruyère and Nathan Picarsic — The Hill
On Oct. 6, the House Judiciary Committee issued a report calling for new antitrust regulations to rein in Big Tech. This report comes after a 15-month antitrust probe into technology firms Google, Apple, Amazon, Twitter and Facebook — and with it, findings that the tech giants all hold monopoly power. Congress is making the wrong call — not because of what was in the House report, but because of what was not: These 450 pages, the antitrust probe, and the national conversation about Big Tech writ large ignore the strategic context. Read more

Afghanistan’s Terrorism Challenge
Afghanistan remains at the center of U.S. and international counterterrorism concerns. As America prepares to pull out its military forces from the country, policymakers remain divided on how terrorist groups in Afghanistan might challenge the security of the U.S. and the threat they pose to allies and regional countries. Advocates of withdrawal argue that the terrorism threat from Afghanistan is overstated, while opponents say that it remains significant and is likely to grow after the drawdown of U.S. forces. This report evaluates the terrorism challenge in Afghanistan by focusing on the political trajectories of three key armed actors in the Afghan context: al-Qaeda, the Afghan Taliban, and the Islamic State.
Read paper

Summer 2020 Issue: MIDDLE EAST INSTITUTE

The Past, Present, and Future of the Trans-Atlantic Alliance
Via Decision 2020In the twenty-first edition of the Decision 2020 Report, Hoover fellows analyze the policy implications of America’s commitment to Europe’s defenses, Washington’s strong stance against Russian aggression, and the state of the European Union as a capable and cohesive governing body.

Narcoterrorism and U.S. National Security
By Carlo J.V. Caro, RealClearDefense: "The arrest of Mexico's former Defense Minister, Salvador Cienfuegos Zepeda, on drug trafficking charges, shows once more how far certain "organized crime groups" have penetrated state institutions and how these groups have transformed into transnational terrorist insurgencies that are challenging the entire hemisphere's security."

Marine Corps Infantry Dilemma
By Lucas Wood, Proceedings: "The Marine Corps is not manned, organized, trained, or equipped to compete against near-peer adversaries in the current and future operating environment. The 38th Commandant of the Marine Corps General David H. Berger recognized this delinquency and directed the Marine Corps to focus on force design and warfighting as two of five focus areas in his July 2019 Commandant’s Planning Guidance."

The 5 Faces Of Chinese Espionage
By Nicholas Eftimiades, Breaking Defense: "Chinese intelligence operations are the first in modern times to use, as a foundation, the whole of society."

Mehdi Khalaji writes: Today, however, a new sense of urgency among Iran’s political elite is undeniable as the country faces a major crisis. […]The Supreme Leader’s demise could produce chaos so great as to jeopardize the stability of the political system. This would hardly mark the crowning achievement Khamenei seeks to achieve with America’s next president, but rather the failure of his life’s work. – Washington Institute

Amos Harel writes: The Israeli army is seeing, more than in the past, cracks in the three-way alliance of interests between the regime and its two major patrons, Russia and Iran. […]Iran, more so than Hezbollah, has open accounts with the United States and Israel. Surprises are always possible but less than two weeks before the presidential election in the United States, it appears that Iran – like the rest of the countries in the region – prefers to wait for the results there. – Haaretz

Tom Rogan writes: Instead, Erdogan requires confrontation. The United States should join with the European Union in preparing sanctions on the Turkish central bank. The Turkish lira is already at pathetic lows (in no insignificant part, thanks to Erdogan’s economic mismanagement). Let’s see whether the sultan feels so supreme when his economy implodes. – Washington Examiner

Tom Rogan writes: U.S. and common NATO sanctions action is now needed. It is not enough simply to continue on the present track of restricting Turkey from accessing the F-35 strike fighter jet. […]The Turkish lira is already near junk value, hovering at extraordinary lows. Any new sanctions would carry major economic consequences. Erdogan must make a choice: his pet project from Putin or his economy. – Washington Examiner

Yuval Karni writes: Netanyahu marketed the deal with the UAE as “peace in exchange for peace.” Sure, Israel did not have to make any territorial concessions, but it paid a price, both politically and security-wise. First of all, Netanyahu forfeited his years-long vision of applying Israeli sovereignty to parts of the West Bank, giving up on a not only political asset, but also on one of his strongest campaign promises. Secondly, the country forfeited its strategic superiority in the region and allowed an Arab nation to be on the same technological footing as Israel. – Ynet

Michael Knights writes: Having emerged out of anonymity around 15 years ago, KH and other top-tier IRGC-QF proxies in Iraq may once again be ordered to atomize, reconfigure, and sink back into the shadows. It should not be surprising if today’s greatly enlarged KH itself begins to fall victim to factionalism and defections, especially due to the absence of either Soleimani or al-Muhandis as a peacemaker. The aforementioned formation of Al-Warithuun (The Inheritors) could be a signpost of a shaving-off of younger, talented, and anonymous operators that is highly reminiscent of the formation of KH itself. – Washington Institute

Abdulkhaleq Abdulla writes: The Arab Gulf states’ time-tested recipe has worked well with President Trump, the most unpredictable president in American history, and it will also be able to accommodate President Biden as well. At the end of the day, a Biden presidency might not be all that different from Obama’s; indeed, some have already dubbed him “Obama lite.” – Middle East Institute

Joseph J. Collins writes: Afghanistan once again stands at a crossroads. The next U.S. president will decide whether to increase support for Kabul, or withdraw all of our troops and leave Afghan forces to fight on alone against the Taliban and its ugly foreign backers, all of whom would delight in our failure there. A precipitous exit from Afghanistan is not in America’s interests. – The Hill

HOW RUSSIA VIEWS AFGHANISTAN TODAY; BAHRAIN GOES TO ISRAEL AND CHINA VIEWS MAHAN AGAIN FOR DOMINANCE

10/19/2020

How Russia Views Afghanistan Today by Nurlan Aliyev

Horns of a Dilemma: Biden, Trump, and the Future of U.S. Foreign Policy with Jim Golby and William Inboden

Bahrain, Israel formalize ties during historic visit to Manama
During the visit of an Israeli-US delegation to Manama on Sunday, Bahrain and Israel signed a joint communique to formalize relations. The visit marks the first commercial nonstop flight from Israel to Bahrain following the two countries' normalization agreement signed last month. “It was indeed a historic visit, to start opening relations between both countries,” Bahraini Foreign Minister Abdullatif bin Rashid Al Zayani said after the signing ceremony. US President Donald Trump’s Middle East envoy Avi Berkowitz, who accompanied the delegation along with US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, expressed hope that the “the Abraham Accords will continue to grow” even if Trump loses the US elections next month. The group is scheduled to fly to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on Monday. The UAE and Bahrain became the third and fourth Arab countries, after Egypt and Jordan, to establish relations with the Jewish state. Meanwhile, Israel and the UAE reached a bilateral agreement that will provide incentives and protection to investors and encourage economic ties, both finance ministries said on Sunday.
Read More 

China arming Venezuelan Navy with anti-ship missiles
(USNI News) Venezuela’s propaganda videos are showing off warships armed with new Chinese-made anti-ship missiles.

2019 was a landmark year for Connecticut’s defense industry
(The Day) Military contractors in Connecticut had their most lucrative year in more than a decade in 2019, receiving $37.1 billion in defense contracts last year.

Are Egypt-Russia naval drills in Black Sea message to Ankara?
(Al-Monitor) For the first time, the Egyptian navy holds joint exercises in the Black Sea with Russia, at a time of escalating tensions with Turkey.

Esper's lie? I don't think so
(Defense One) A recent Defense One commentary titled “Esper’s Convenient Lie” contains a number of statements challenging how the defense secretary is portraying the Pentagon’s focus on counterterrorism wars of the past and the current shift to state-on-state conflict with China which warrant our attention — but let’s start with the title.

Mahan Reincarnated!
Secretary of Defense Makes Strong Case for a Navy of Over 500 Ships
By Brent D. Sadler, RealClearDefense: “When The New York Times reported that Russia had likely deployed a nuclear-armed cruise missile in violation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty.”

‘Preparing for War’: What Is China’s Xi Jinping Trying to Tell Us?
By James Holmes, The National Interest: “Xi recently exhorted Chinese marines to devote their “minds and energy” to “preparing for war.” Much of the message was meant for the U.S. and Taiwan."

The Central Idea of Conflict: Will
By Wayne Michael Hall, Strategy Bridge: “Good strategic thought empowers winning in conflict. With it, conflict’s constancy spreads across multiple domains and among levels of conflict and demand our fighters understand will as it relates to a resisting entity’s purpose for fighting."

Below Threshold Options for China against the U.S.
By Eli Kravinsky, Divergent Options: “The U.S. is continuing to orient its foreign policy and defense policy towards the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Accordingly, PRC tactics that have proven successful against the U.S. thus far may begin to fail. This failure will cause the PRC to develop new tactics to use against the U.S. below the threshold of armed conflict."

"With S-400 Escalation, Turkey Tests NATO," Bradley Bowman and Maj. Shane “Axl” Praiswater, FDD Policy Brief

Farzin Nadimi writes: The U.S. “maximum pressure” policy is unlikely to affect Iran’s overall military capability, given that the lifting of arms sanctions will hardly affect the arms markets. […]Although the portrayal of an invincible front against the enemy is partly to boost morale in a country battered by economic hardship and the COVID-19 pandemic, that should not obscure the fact that, for an aggressively ideological enemy now assured of its military might, bending under pressure will not be an option. – Washington Institute

Isabel Ivanescu writes: A Russian deployment could also allow pro-regime forces to pursue more-ambitious objectives and adopt a new modus operandi in an imminent Idlib offensive if Russia permits its forces to participate in combat as well as posturing. […]A deployment of conventional Russian forces would solidify Russia’s position in Syria and give Russia an opportunity to test evolving doctrinal concepts and combat capabilities. However, it would require Russian willingness to resource Syria as a priority effort and tolerate increased risk to force. – Institute for the Study of War

Danny Citrinowicz writes: And while Assad’s position appears to be secure for now, Israel should work to ensure that if the opportunity to influence the Syrian political scene does arise, it possesses an extant framework for communicating its concerns to involved parties in Syria. Without a diplomatic component, Israel’s military strikes will not open a permanent solution to the Syrian problem. With Hezbollah’s and Iran’s backs to the wall, continued aggression might lead to an undesired escalation not worth any operational achievement. – Washington Institute

Mahlet N. Mesfin and Scott Moore write: At a time when the world sometimes seems to lurch from one crisis to another, the risks and opportunities presented by biotechnology might seem far-off. But as the still-recent discovery of CRISPR-Cas9 has shown, the next transformative advance in biotechnology may be just around the corner — and the U.S., China, and other nations must seek new and expanded ways to identify shared principles to navigate the scientific, regulatory, and ethical dimensions of this brave new world. – The Hill

Natia Chankvetadze and Ketevan Murusidze write: Recent developments in the Karabakh confirm there are no ‘frozen’ conflicts and ‘unshaken’ status-quo. Growing militarization in the region, strengthening disinformation campaigns, and a lack of levers for strategic peacebuilding have created a fruitful ground for greater militaristic rhetoric and hard power decision-making. Peace and stability in the Black Sea region is extremely fragile. – Middle East Institute

Tom Rogan writes: Macron’s challenge, however, is that new rules and expanded economic opportunity won’t alone reverse this separatist trend. The government’s ban on Islamic face coverings, for example, has fed deep resentment without any obvious benefit for promoting social inclusion[…]Macron must be bold. Absent that endeavor, the social fissures which facilitate attacks such as that on Paty will only widen. – Washington Examiner

Hal Brands explains: “The best way to ensure that this help is forthcoming in a crisis is not simply to demand that allies do more in the common defense, as important as that is, it is also to invest in these relationships before the crisis strikes — to quietly build a common strategic outlook on the challenge that China poses, to explore new options for military and diplomatic cooperation, and to strengthen the network of ties that may mean the difference between victory or defeat.” With US soft power severely undermined, how can the US incentivize allies to form or strengthen nonmilitary relationships? With the Trump administration's America First strategy, how do we develop a common strategic outlook for great-power competition?

TURKEY HAS 21 MAJOR CONFLICTS GOING ON

10/16/2020

S-400 alert, Turkish edition. Turkey appears to have fired a missile into the Black Sea where its "military was expected to test its Russian-made S-400 defence systems," Reuters reports.

"Erdogan has crossed the Rubicon, as Ankara no longer has any plausible deniability that the system is not fully activated," said Aykan Erdemir, former Turkish member of Parliament and current Senior Director of the Turkey Program at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies.

Erdemir's forecast: "Putin's bet to use Erdogan as a spoiler in NATO has paid off, as Turkey will continue to distract the transatlantic alliance by diverting its attention and resources away from pressing threats elsewhere," he writes. "Washington's inaction and the impunity Erdogan has so far enjoyed will encourage other states to go forward with their plans to purchase the S-400 air defense system and other big ticket military hardware from Russia."

EU slaps sanctions on Kremlin insider over links with Russian paramilitary group in Libya
The European Union announced on Thursday sanctions on a Russian businessman and confidant of President Vladimir Putin over his alleged links to a Russian private military contractor accused of violating an arms embargo on Libya. Yevgeny Prigozhin is widely believed to be a leader of the Wagner Group, which operates as an unofficial arm of Russia's Defense Ministry. The Wagner Group has been accused of recruiting thousands of Syrian mercenaries to fight alongside Libya’s eastern military strongman Khalifa Hifter.
Read More
al-monitor.com

US BREAKING CHINESE NATIONAL SECRET: NUCLEAR CAPABILITIES

10/16/2020

Net Assessment: We Need to Talk About Nukes
with Zack Cooper, Melanie Marlowe, and Christopher Preble

US working to end Chinese secrecy around nuclear capabilities
(USNI News) America’s senior arms negotiator said Washington is taking diplomatic and military steps to put an end to Beijing’s “great wall of secrecy” that surrounds its rapid and expanding strategic weapons program.

The status of US military power in 2020
(The Daily Signal) America’s competitors are developing and deploying new technologies that will make their conventional forces far more effective in open combat. The question before Congress is: Will the U.S. try to keep up?

Pentagon Has Big Plans for ‘Project Convergence’ in 2021
By Mandy Mayfield, National Defense Magazine: “The Defense Department is expanding an Army initiative known as "Project Convergence," with plans to bring in other services and international allies for the next iteration of the effort."

North Korea’s Two New Strategic Missiles:
What Do We Know and What Do They Mean for U.S. Deterrence?
By Joe Varner, Modern War Institute: “This year’s parade did not disappoint, with new strategic systems in the spotlight intended to convey Pyongyang’s capability to present new challenges to the United States’ and its allies’ security and nuclear deterrence."

For Baltic Defense, Forget the ‘Forest Brothers’
By Kevin Blachford & Ronald Ti, War on the Rocks: "The image of the partisan unexpectedly striking at the enemy, inflicting casualties and damage in a hail of gunfire, punctuated by explosions, before melting into the deep forests is a powerful metaphor for national resistance, determination, courage, and patriotism. The three Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania exist in a state of permanent precariousness, and the legacy of invasions, defiance, and independence has shaped the strategic culture of the Baltics to idealize such forms of paramilitary warfare."

Hypersonic defense; Leonardo's Lynn; Quad-A in person?; and more...
By Marcus Weisgerber

Priorities for 2021
Yuval Levin | NationalReview.com
We asked nine AEI scholars to offer guidance in their areas of expertise that the president might find useful in 2021 and beyond. But we asked them to do this while the presidential election whirls in the background, so they had to offer advice not to Donald Trump or Joe Biden but to America’s president.
Full Story

Amid the efforts by the U.S. military and its potential adversaries to develop hypersonic weapons, an increasing number of defense companies are looking to crank up existing missile-defense systems to counter faster-flying threats.

"There [are] some technologies that are there today that are fielded that are effective," Scott Green, executive vice president of Lockheed Martin's $10 billion Missiles and Fire Control business, said in an interview Wednesday. "And there's some incremental things that you can do to the platforms that are out there today to make them more effective."

Lockheed Martin makes the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, air defense system, PAC-3 Patriot interceptor, and missile tracking radar. While Green wouldn't get into specifics, he said hypersonic defense is similar to traditional missile defense.

"The physics are similar," he said. You have to to turn up your agility based on the speeds of the incoming projectiles, but there's a lot that we do that can be reused."

Lockheed is hardly the only company vying for market share in both the offensive and defensive sides of the hypersonic battle. Raytheon executives have touted the company's desire to build defenses against hypersonic weapons. The company makes the Patriot system and other air- and missile-defense interceptors and tracking radars.

Lockheed Announces Team for DARPA Hypersonic Weapon Launcher Demo. Northrop Grumman will supply the solid rocket motor, Leidos' Dynetics will supply the canister, all-up round and fins, and support integration and test, and small business ECE will provide the booster power pyro module. "The goal of the Operational Fires (OpFires) program is to develop and demonstrate a novel ground-launched system enabling hypersonic boost glide weapons to penetrate modern enemy air defenses and rapidly and precisely engage critical time sensitive targets," according to DARPA. "OpFires seeks to develop an advanced booster capable of delivering a variety of payloads at a variety of ranges."

One-on-One with Bill Lynn of Leonardo DRS
Leonardo DRS CEO Bill Lynn, who was deputy defense secretary during the Obama administration, talks ships, the industrial base, and advice for Pentagon appointees if former Vice President Joe Bidwn wins next month's presidential election.

Q. What do you make of the 500-plus ship plan announced by Defense Secretary Mark Esper last week? What could it mean for Leonardo DRS?
A. It's a little hard to assess when [the plan] comes this late [in a presidential term]. I think we're going to need a kind of a program and a budget to see exactly how they're gonna flesh this out. But, we feel it's going to be okay for us. Our biggest Navy program is the new Columbia-class ballistic missile submarine; that's not going to change, no matter what. That's dictated by the half-life of a nuclear reactor. The schedule and the need is clearly not going to change. We're not going to abandon reliance on the sea-based deterrence.

In terms of ship counts ... we build things for both new ships and upgrading old ships. So if they buy new ships, our stuff goes on that. If they don't buy as many new ships, and they have to upgrade the older ships at a higher rate, we have that lane. So, we feel that we're in a pretty strong position however this comes out [but] I need to see a program and a budget before I can judge what this really changes,

Q. What programs are particularly at risk if the defense budget shrinks?
A. When the budget gets flatter, it forces the military departments into trade-offs. Cuts, the way the budget works, is that there's this ratchet effect of cost-of-living increases, in terms of salaries, in terms of benefits, in terms of the cost of technology. If the budget isn't going up at some rate, you're losing ground programmatically and so you have to make trade-offs — trade offs between force structure and modernization, trade offs between R&D and procurement, trade offs between current forces and future forces. I think we're starting down that path.

I think we're in a pretty good position there, because we're not dependent on any single program. We don't have big, multibillion-dollar programs where a single decision could change our whole outlook. Obviously, we're not looking for anything to be canceled, but we can absorb changes, I think, reasonably well.

We're not dependent on building new platforms for our growth....We build the communications, the sensors, the electronics, the gear that goes inside the platforms, whether it's an upgraded legacy platform or a new platform, our business continues. So it's not that these trade off don't change our trajectory some, but we feel we're pretty stable.

Q. As someone who presided over a shift in Pentagon priorities, what advice would you give the next administration as they evaluate the current portfolio?
A. Make hard decisions early. It...doesn't get easier. Set a course and stick to it. You're going to be in better shape than if you try, and hope that maybe in a year or two things will be a little bit different. You can defer the decisions [but] almost inevitably, that means that the decision you're faced with that is harder [it was] a year or two ago. You can't get lulled to complacency by the hope that maybe the fiscal situation or something will improve. It's far easier to react to that than the opposite.

Q. What's the next big M&A?
A. We've consolidated so much since the early 90s. There's less room for it then there was. It doesn't mean it can't happen. Certainly the Raytheon-UTC [merger], I didn't see it coming. There's certainly room for some changes, but I think you can't see that big massive consolidation you saw in the early '90s because there's just not enough players to allow it. But could there be more single episodes of consolidation? Sure.

Oshkosh Developing New JLTV Packages
The maker of the Army's Joint Light Tactical Vehicle has already delivered more than 8,800 vehicles and is developing new configurations of the armored truck that is replacing tens of thousands of Humvees. Among the more than 100 upgrade kits are a blast-protected ambulance and a command-and-control vehicle. "We believe that we are the vehicle and we're ready for any near-peer threat," George Mansfield, vice president and general manager of joint programs at Oshkosh Defense, said in an interview. The packages are modular and could be installed on existing vehicles. "We're working on some…additional kits for different configurations on the JLTV right now," he said.

HOW MEXICO IS FAILING: THE AUTHORITARIANISM OF LEADERSHIP

10/4/2020

TURKEY GOES EAST INVITING RUSSIAN REVENGE & GLOBAL TRENDS FOR THE LONG WAR EXAMINED

9/29/2020

National Defense Strategy to make the best use of available funding as the United States enters a time of budget pressure. Read more here.

Diliman Abdulkader on U.S. Policy toward the Kurds by Marilyn Stern
Middle East Forum Webinar
October 5, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/61614/abdulkader-on-us-policy-toward-the-kurds

Erdogan Seeks To Relitigate Defeat Of Turks in WWI
By JONATHAN TOBIN, Special to the Sun | October 6, 2020
https://www.nysun.com/foreign/erdogan-seeking-to-relitigate-defeat-of-turks/91289/

Erdoğan and His Arab "Brothers" by Burak Bekdil
BESA Center Perspectives
October 8, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/61634/erdogan-and-his-arab-brothers

Between a rock and hard place: Iran’s dilemma in Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
Tehran is sending forces to its borders in anticipation of the Armenian-Azeri conflict spilling over.

The Failures of Operation Enduring Freedom
Thomas Joscelyn — The Dispatch
Nineteen years ago today, the U.S. military went to war in Afghanistan. It was not a war of America’s choosing. Prior to the 9/11 hijackings, Osama bin Laden and his lieutenants planned a series of attacks on American interests, including the 1998 U.S. Embassy bombings and the October 2000 attack on the USS Cole. Despite the obvious terrorist threat emanating from Afghanistan, the Taliban’s founder and overall leader, Mullah Omar, repeatedly rejected America’s demands. Omar stood by bin Laden. Read more

U.S., TURKEY:
Turkey Reportedly Used S-400 System Against U.S.-Made F-16s,
and Congress Wants Answers
By Oriana Pawlyk, Military.com: “The world is steadily confronting the prospect of full-fledged Chinese domination in the world’s most important waterway, the South China Sea.”

Why the President Is the Weakest Link in U.S. Nuclear Strategy
By Loren Thompson, Forbes: “. . . the president has unilateral authority to launch nuclear weapons, and that power is one of the few places in the federal system where no checks and balances exist."

Will Iran’s past become prologue for Nagorno-Karabakh?

Revenge of Stalinism

Why the cancellation of Nord Stream-2 will punish Russian citizens, not the Kremlin

Egypt rallies Arab states against Turkey in Syria
Cairo is capitalizing on anger over the Turkish intervention in Syria to unite the Arab ranks in support of Damascus. Read More

Conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh has broken out repeatedly since Armenians seized control of the territory and surrounding areas from Azerbaijan, in a war that started soon after the 1991 collapse of the former Soviet Union[…]. The latest bout of fighting that started Sept. 27 differs from many previous skirmishes since the end of the war in 1994, both in scale and in geopolitical risk. This time, Turkey has given unreserved backing to its ally Azerbaijan, raising the stakes significantly. – Bloomberg

Bloomberg’s Bobby Ghosh: Erdogan puts himself in a bind in Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict

Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict: What’s behind the fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh

Turkey is sending Syrian rebel fighters to support Azerbaijan in its escalating conflict with neighbouring Armenia, two Syrian rebels have said, as Ankara pledges to step up backing for its majority-Muslim ally. – Reuters

Michael Rubin writes: Whatever analytical camp, the policy response should be the same: Judge Ankara by its actions rather than words and calibrate policy toward reality rather than wishful thinking. […]To solve the Turkey problem, therefore, it is essential to advance US-Greek relations. If Turkey returns to the community of responsible nations, both Washington and Athens might embrace it. Until that time, however, both should treat Turkey like the rogue nation it has become. – Ekathimerini

Mordechai Kedar writes: To sum up the situation, the Arab world — that part of it that sees Israel as the only hope in dealing with Iran — does not appreciate the expectation that it must mortgage its future and its very existence to the internal fighting between the PLO and Hamas. And let us not forget that Egypt and Jordan have signed peace agreements with Israel, moved outside the circle of war for the “liberation of Palestine,” and forsaken their Palestinian Arab “brothers,” leaving them to deal with the problem on their own. – Algemeiner

Michael Rubin writes: In Syria, Afghanistan, and now Iraq, Trump and Pompeo are showing that terror works and that no one should trust the United States. Already, Russia is taking that lesson to Saudi Arabia and Egypt as it tries to peel away allies and end decades-long alliances. Trump may rail against “endless wars” but he should consider what the world would look like if the United States has neither alliances nor the trust necessary to build them. – The National Interest

Michael Rubin writes: Under no circumstances, however, should Trump and Pompeo undercut America’s strategic posture or undermine an election that, in combination with Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani’s recent statements, is guaranteed to undercut the legitimacy of those groups most corrosive to Iraqi sovereignty and Iraq’s recovery. It’s not too late for Pompeo to clarify his statements to underscore America’s continued commitment to Iraq and highlight to both Iraq and the region the benefit that the strategic partnership brings to Iraq and the broader region. – Washington Examiner

Senior Chinese Communist party officials have been sending an ominous message to private sector entrepreneurs in recent weeks. In a series of policy announcements and meetings, they have emphasised that private companies have an important role to play in “United Front work” — a euphemism for efforts aimed at ensuring that non-party organisations and entities support the party’s top policy objectives as well as its iron grip on power. – Financial Times

William Alan Reinsch writes: Decoupling will grow because both governments want it to and because some companies will find it in their economic interest, but it will be incomplete. That is not likely to change regardless of who wins the November election or as long as Xi Jinping remains in power. Unfortunately, that means we are heading for a fragmented global economy driven by government policy and increasingly separate internets driven by divergent internet governance policies. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Daniel F. Runde, Richard M. Rossow, Christopher H. Metzger, Blair F. Sullivan, Robert Carlson write: CSIS is pleased to release a new research report, “Creative Economies in the Indo-Pacific and Covid-19,” that lays out findings from this research while also highlighting how Taiwan can operationalize its New Southbound Policy by tapping into the region’s potential for the creative sector, and supplementing the United States’ efforts to secure a free and open Indo-Pacific. Moreover, this study of creative industries in the Indo-Pacific region also demonstrates the central role of creative industries in driving a more resilient global economic recovery from Covid-19. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

If the commandant of the Marine Corps has focused his attention in his first year on the job tackling a Force Design 2030 effort to reshape how the Marine Corps gears up for a modern battlefield, the next year will focus on the training and manning issues that follow – ensuring the entire man, train and equip portfolio are brought up to date, the head of Marine Corps training said. – USNI News

David Barno and Nora Bensahel write: For these reasons, we’ve spent the past four years thinking about whether the U.S. military is adaptable enough for the wars it will face in the future. And though the U.S. military certainly has many strengths, our assessment of its adaptability in Iraq and Afghanistan, and in the three critical areas of doctrine, technology, and leadership, lead us to be very concerned that it will not be adaptable enough to prevail. – War on the Rocks

Frederico Bartels and Patty-Jane Geller write: As the Department wrestles with the implementation of the National Defense Strategy and shaping the force for the reality of great-power competition, it is imperative that Congress act with the proper urgency in crafting its Defense appropriations bill to fulfill its role in the endeavor. – Heritage Foundation

Stephen Tankel writes: The over-militarization of U.S. counter-terrorism efforts has had pernicious consequences both for these efforts and the U.S. military. Focusing on interstate strategic competition requires investing the mental energy necessary to develop a more sustainable approach to counter-terrorism. […]It is understandable for Defense Department leadership to want to turn the page on counter-terrorism, but equally critical that they realize the page won’t turn itself and that there are risks to closing the book too quickly. – War on the Rocks

Weary of Netanyahu, Benny Gantz delivers last ultimatum
Having lost all trust in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Benny Gantz has now delivered an ultimatum on the 2021 state budget.

ISLAM REIGNS IN FRANCE, FOREFUL RAPE OF CHRISTIAN GIRLS & NAVY ACQUISITIONS REVIEW

9/27/2020

The 'Nevertheless' Club and the World by Amir Taheri

Is It Inevitable That After Brexit Scots Will Quit United Kingdom?Time, Says Our Brexit Diariest, for Boris Johnson To Honor ‘Old Fashioned’ Ideas He Once Extolled
By STEPHEN MacLEAN, Special to the Sun | September 26, 2020
https://www.nysun.com/foreign/is-it-inevitable-that-scots-quit-uk-after-brexit/91274/
"Centralization is the death-blow of public freedom." So Benjamin Disraeli declared. "It is the citadel of the oligarchs from which, if once erected, it will be impossible to dislodge them." So why is Boris Johnson flouting this most cherished conservative principle?
Continue Reading

Hold Russia accountable for latest chemical weapons attack

TURKEY HOLDS MEETING WITH HAMAS DELEGATION

8/24/2020

JPost’s Seth J. Frantzman: Turkey’s Erdogan hosts large Hamas delegation with wanted terrorist

With U.S. backing, Iraq pushes for energy rapprochement with Saudis

Seth J. Frantzman writes: At the same time, Arab tribes on the other side of the Euphrates have been protesting against the US-backed SDF in recent weeks. Is ISIS stirring up discontent among the tribes? Or is the Syrian regime’s long hand at work, destabilizing areas on one side of the Euphrates, only to find out that ISIS exploited this power vacuum as well? – Jerusalem Post

Sean Durns writes: By the late 1980s and early 1990s, usage of the term “West Bank” became more widespread at the Times and other outlets — and with it, the implied notion that “West Bank” means “Palestinian” and that the land was, and always had been, Arab. But according to many in the press, the land could not — it must not — ever be held to be Jewish. It can be Jordanian. It can be Palestinian. But Jews’ claims to their ancestral homeland are to be erased or minimized. – Algemeiner

Hany Ghoraba writes: The historic peace between the UAE and Israel may help reopen the doors to a sustainable peace in the Middle East. Countries such as Bahrain, Oman, and possibly Sudan are open to the idea of normalization of relations with Israel. The deal, however, has exposed the disingenuous nature of the anti-peace Islamist camp. Their reactions show they care much less about attaining peace or the fate of Palestinians than about imposing their agenda and settling political scores. – Algemeiner

Ari Cicurel writes: Finally, the United States lacks a Special Envoy for the Eastern Mediterranean that can focus on negotiating a solution to the Libya civil war. Ending the flow of arms into Libya should be the immediate priority. American leadership is crucial as a dangerous arms race brews in the Eastern Mediterranean. Without it, Turkey is currently the biggest winner and regional stability, the clear loser. – Breaking Defense

Simon Henderson writes: In political terms, General Bajwa is more powerful than Prime Minister Khan, whose 2018 electoral victory is often credited to the fact that the military disliked the other candidates and backed him. The general’s main lever in dealing with Riyadh is his control over security and nuclear policy. But recent reports suggest that although Pakistan may have offered the Saudis nuclear assistance years ago, China now dominates this role. Any future Saudi willingness to back Islamabad’s policies on Kashmir and other issues may also be tempered by Riyadh’s desire to ease the India-Pakistan nuclear rivalry. – Washington Institute

The head of the Mossad spy agency reportedly met with a senior Sudanese official in a meeting organized and hosted by the United Arab Emirates, Arabic media reports said Friday. – Times of Israel

In the Marine Corps’ new concept of expeditionary advanced base operations, its forces disperse light, agile units with a small footprint over a wide area while working jointly with naval forces to counter and fight a credible enemy threat in a multi-domain contested environment. To prepare for that real-world mission, disparate squadrons and battalions that often don’t train together must integrate to exercise as a Marine air-ground task force (MAGTF). – USNI News

Douglas Birkey writes: The DoD should be commended for pursuing new war-fighting concepts. The nation faces serious challenges that require sincere change. However, fundamental to these decisions are hard conversations regarding what yields the most relevant combat power per dollar. Each capability must earn its way into the operational plan. This begins with cost-per-effect analysis — measuring what it takes to get the job done. It is not a time when the nation can afford to pursue “every kid gets a trophy” approach — nor will future defense budget constraints allow it. – Defense News

Kabul in 1979, Minsk in 2020?
By Lev Stesin, August 23, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Alexander Lukashenko’s days as the autocratic president of Belarus are clearly numbered, and Russia will likely play a key role in his exit. What is less clear is just how that exit will come about and what role the neighbor to the East will play. Recent history provides us with a few possible scenarios.
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CHINA PHASE ONE DEAD & READING ECONOMIC TRENDS

8/22/2020

China’s telecom firms in the US are in trouble By Stephen Bryen
An influential US Senate subcommittee, the Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, has issued a strongly negative report about Chinese telecoms operating in the United States. While the subcommittee stopped short of saying the Chinese telecom companies should be removed from the US telecoms market, the report is tilted strongly in that direction. Read More

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Read More US. vs. CHINA writes Dilip Hiro
writes David Goldman.

Few Americans did, which is why it’s worth telling the story of how Saudi, Emirati and Qatari money flooded the nation’s capital and, in the process, American policy went down for the count. Read More

Saudi Arabia Isn't Just Raising Taxes ’: For autocratic regimes, increasing taxes could put their survival at risk.

Political dynamics rapidly changing in Pakistan By Imad Zafar
Change is the only constant in the world, whereas stagnation leads to the death of a society. Ever since 2014 when a sit-in led by Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) was held against the elected government of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), the country has been going through a period of stagnation. Read More

Phase one is a failure
Zack Cooper and Derek Scissors | RealClearWorld
The phase one trade deal with China is on its last legs. The question should be what comes next. The best answer is targeted retaliation to deter China's predatory economic and security behavior.

Reading the inflation tea leaves
Paul H. Kupiec | AEIdeas
Depending on how you interpret recent data on inflation, it might be premature to dismiss the possibility that problematic inflation may soon return.

Blame It on the Blob? How to Evaluate American Grand Strategy by Francis J. Gavin

When You’re Outnumbered: Lessons from Two British Masters of Irregular Warfare by Christopher D. Booth

Net Assessment: Time to Rethink U.S. Policy Toward Putin’s Russia? with Zack Cooper, Melanie Marlowe, and Christopher Preble

Eva Kahan writes: Major tribal leaders in eastern Syria may break away from the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which would severely jeopardize the anti-ISIS mission by fracturing the US partner force in Syria. […]Tribal animosity toward the SDF has been building since mid-2019 due to the combined pressures of overlapping ISIS and pro-regime insurgencies as well as the SDF’s weak and under-resourced governance. The continued presence of SDF and coalition forces in Deir ez-Zour could become untenable if the SDF fails to find a compromise with increasingly fractured tribal elements. – Institute for the Study of War

Michael Rubin writes: The danger has never been higher. With Washington distracted, Trump unpredictable, and Europe susceptible to Erdogan’s cynical refugee blackmail, Erdogan may believe that the time is now to seize Kastellorizo and other Greek islands. Should Trump lose, he may see the final weeks of his presidency as the best chance to act. Neither Trump nor Biden is ready; let us hope Greece is. Either way, a need to respond to war in the Eastern Mediterranean may soon grow to overshadow both the Trump and potentially Biden legacies. – Kathimerini

Amos Gilad writes: The only way to maintain peace and long-term stability in the region is for Israel to prevent the sale of American-made F-35 fighter jets to any other Middle Eastern state, regardless of current or future relations. – Ynet

Bobby Ghosh writes: In either case, they have been making alternative arrangements to deal with the Iranian menace. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have both been splurging on the latest military hardware from the U.S. and Europe — and even China and Russia. And the new Emirati agreement with Israel was inspired in no small part by a desire to box in the Islamic Republic. The best the Trump administration can expect from its Arab allies if the snapback gambit fails is quiet commiseration. – Bloomberg

Yousef Al Otaiba writes: In the most tumultuous place on earth, the UAE and Israel will now try to defy this fate. […]This week, the gate was opened. And together, Emiratis and Israelis will now step through it. Like all journeys, there will be discovery and difficulty. At times, we may even argue about the direction. But the destination is as clear and as certain as ever – a more peaceful, prosperous and hopeful Middle East. – Ynet

Sarah Feuer writes: Whether the Egyptian government manages to elevate such reformist voices and develop a convincing alternative to Al-Azhar’s brand of conservatism remains to be seen. If it succeeds, however, it would likely bolster Egypt’s stability and advance the broader regional battle between moderate and extremist streams of Islamic thought—two outcomes in which Washington has a clear interest. Sisi’s government deserves much criticism for its human rights abuses and abysmal record on upholding basic democratic principles. But in the arena of religious reform, growing state control could be a step in the right direction. – Washington Institute

William Morrissey and John Givens write: The United States should adopt a national strategy on standardization to advance its own interests — not because China already has one, and not as a counterpunch to Beijing. While China Standards 2035 is likely to be ambitious, it will not cover the gamut of rapidly transforming technologies. A defensive U.S. response could be undermined by the global rejection of efforts to simply keep China out. Any strategy should be focused on enhancing U.S. advantages and protecting the existing model. Standardization’s openness is both its success and its vulnerability. Ensuring that it remains open is a necessity. – War on the Rocks

Hal Brands writes: We sometimes think of the U.S.-China competition as a fundamentally different kind of great-power contest, one whose outcome will be determined more by control of data than by control of strategic terrain. Yet it is also an old-fashioned military rivalry, with all the perils that entails. It would be catastrophic if the free world were to lose Taiwan. It might also be hard, costly and dangerous to keep it. – Bloomberg

Terrorists in the Sahel region of Africa are poised to take advantage of uncertainty in the American defense posture following a recent Defense Department announcement, but U.S. Africa Command shored up partners with a military equipment donation to Niger on Friday. – Washington Examiner

Maj. Gen. Matthew G. Glavy and Brett Goldstein write: This project should shape not only future Marine Corps efforts, but future Department of Defense projects for years to come. The team demonstrated a cost-effective, iterative procedure that can quickly field a precise capability needed to accomplish a task. Now is time to empower military talent to build the modern software development capabilities the Pentagon so desperately needs. There is much work to be done. – War on the Rocks

New era dawns for China’s next-gen submarine By Dave Makichuk
Has the Chinese Navy moved a step closer to the next generation of powerful nuclear submarines, matching the US and the Russians in the global game of deadly deterrence? According to a report in Forbes magazine, new evidence at the Bohai shipyard in China points to big things ahead for the Chinese Navy. Read More

China’s energy weakness will lose the New Cold War By Tim Daiss
Imagine: A Chinese-flagged super tanker bound for the mainland has just turned off its automatic identification system to hide an Iranian oil shipment in violation of US sanctions. Read More

Kazakhstan holds the secret for Greater Eurasia By Pepe Escobar
The no-holds-barred US-China strategic competition may be leading us to the complete fragmentation of the current “world-system,” as American sociologist and economic historian Immanuel Wallerstein defined it. Read More

The man who drove the US out of Afghanistan
By Fazelminallah Qazizai
The first time Mullah Ibrahim Sadar confronted US forces in Afghanistan he was given a lesson in the brutal reality of war that he would never forget. To those who later watched him rise through the Taliban’s ranks and win the respect of al-Qaeda’s inner circle, his sense of purpose was evident even then.

Dollar’s pain not yet the yuan’s gain
By William Pesek
As markets fret about the stability of US President Donald Trump’s dollar, more attention should be focused on why China’s currency is still so unready for prime time. Has there been a better moment, as Sino-US tensions explode, for the yuan to take its rightful place as among the world’s top two unit of exchange than now?

A cheaper, faster way to nuclear fusion
By Jonathan Tennenbaum
One of the most notable features of Eric Lerner’s approach to fusion using the Dense Plasma Focus (DPF), presented in Part 1 and Part 2 of this series, lies in the possibility of using hydrogen and boron as a fuel. This property is shared by the hydrogen-boron laser fusion reactor, which I discussed in a previous series of articles in Asia Times.

GERMANY REMAINS UN-AMERICAN, CENTCOM GETS SURPRISE & IRAQI PM GOES TO WHITE HOUSE WITH OIL; AFRICAN COUPS CONTINUE IN THE SAHEL

8/20/2020

Erdoğan Needs New Enemies by Burak Bekdil

Goodbye - Sort Of - To Germany?
by Victor Davis Hanson via National Review
Why should America anchor Germany's defense? It cuts deals with Russia, has never met its NATO commitment, and is the most anti-American nation in Europe.

Haftar to allow limited Libya oil exports to ease power gap

Since its formation in 2009, the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps – Intelligence Organisation (IRGC-IO) has gained increasing dominance over the domestic security sphere in Iran. Under the direct control of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, it has targeted officials, journalists, lawyers, activists, and dual nationals, severely undermining the policies and status of successive elected governments. In doing so, it has encroached upon, and in many respects sidelined, the government’s Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS). – Jane’s 360

Seth J. Frantzman writes: Minister of Defense Amir Hatami said that in the field of missiles Iran has reached real deterrent power. He argued that now Iran’s missiles can reach 2,000 km and that this new Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis missile can reach 1,000 km. In solid fuel missiles Iran also says it has a range up to 1,400 with other missiles. It is not clear if these boasts have been proven but Iran did use ballistic missiles to target the US in Iraq in January and has targeted ISIS in Syria. […]This shows Iran has reached sophisticated levels of missile and drone production. It also used cruise missiles against Saudi Arabia last year, coordinating the attack with drones. Not all the cruise missiles made it to their targets.- Jerusalem Post

Toward A World Free From Nuclear Weapons
by James Goodby via PolicyEd
Achieving a nuclear-free world starts with a joint effort from nuclear-capable countries to mitigate the factors that drive nations to possess these weapons.

Gen. Frank McKenzie said troop reductions in Iraq have forced the remaining Americans into a defensive crouch against continued Iranian-backed militia attacks. It's enough to do the job, with Iraqis, he said, but it's preventing the U.S. from pursuing ISIS. Iran is now the CENTCOM chief's top focus, signaling a shift in policy and the times. Recall that, here.

"Five U.S. firms including Chevron Corp signed agreements on Wednesday with the Iraqi government aimed at boosting Iraq's energy independence from Iran," Reuters reported Wednesday.

The companies involved in that five-firm deal signed Wednesday: Honeywell International Inc, Baker Hughes Co, General Electric Co, Stellar Energy and Chevron. Altogether, the companies "signed commercial agreements worth as much as $8 billion with the Iraqi ministers of oil and electricity," according to Reuters. More on all that, here.

We need to be creative in support of Iraqi Prime Minister Kadhimi
Kenneth Pollack | The Hill
Today, the president will meet Iraq’s new prime minister, Mustafa al-Kadhimi, at the White House. This is more than an important event; it is a strategically crucial one.

Hussein Ibish writes: To its deep discomfort, Hezbollah can no longer operate behind the façade of the state. The Lebanese government most directly responsible for the port explosion was entirely made up of Hezbollah allies. Its militia defends the corrupt political and economic system that has hollowed out the country. – Bloomberg

Turkey’s lira has been driven to record lows on concerns that lower interest rates, depleting FX reserves and a flood of easy credit could pave the way to a second currency crisis in as many years. – Reuters

Seth J. Frantzman writes: The fact that it put to sea its research vessel and seven naval vessels shows this is a real display of force. Ankara has also recruited lobbying firms in Washington and think tanks and experts to push its case via various media. This is a full-court press by Ankara that combines, in a Clausewitz-like style, the military, research vessels, energy claims, politics, foreign policy, Syrian mercenaries, lobbyists and media. Whether France, Greece, Egypt and others can actually work together to deal with this issue and get the US to take it seriously rather than give-in to Turkey’s unclear demands, remains to be seen. – Jerusalem Post

Seth J. Frantzman writes: The impunity of assassinations illustrates how militias, many affiliated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, are working slowly and systematically to silence any dissent. This is especially true for targeting young people and women. The goal is to preserve the system that arose in Iraq in the last decade, a rule that is increasingly beholden to militias, clerics, and the politics of the gun. – Jerusalem Post

Kenneth M. Pollack writes: Alternatively, if becomes clear that even Kadhimi — with his technocratic smarts, his non-partisan nationalism, and the assumed support of the United States — cannot begin to move Iraq in the right direction, the Iraqi people may turn against the system entirely and opt for a revolution that would be unlikely to work out well for the United States. – The Hill

Sam Magdy writes: The exact impact of the dam on downstream countries Egypt and Sudan remains unknown. For Egyptian farmers, the daunting prospect adds a new worry on top of the other causes of mounting water scarcity. Egypt is already spreading its water resources thin. Its booming population, now over 100 million, has one of the lowest per capita shares of water in the world, at around 550 cubic meters per year, compared to a global average of 1,000 – Associated Press

Haisam Hassanein writes: In response, however, Washington should make clear that the future of peacemaking will be dictated by regional normalization. In other words, Egypt will need to join the normalization camp after stalling for years, or else watch its prestige and international influence continue to diminish. Cairo has not been serious about normalizing with Israel for years. […]These policies need to end if Cairo wants to be a major peace mediator and regional player in the changing Arab-Israeli paradigm. – Washington Institute

Donna Abu-Nasr writes: The rise of the UAE as a new power broker in the region could mark a shift in Arab leadership, dilute Saudi influence, and further fracture Gulf Arab unity. The kingdom has to balance that immediate geopolitical concern against other ideological ones. As the location of the holy cities of Mecca and Medina, Saudi Arabia is the symbolic leader of the global Muslim community, which is overwhelmingly sympathetic to the Palestinians. The Saudis’ archenemy Iran would likely pounce on any hint that Riyadh’s support for the Palestinians was wobbling. – Bloomberg

Anas El Gomati writes: As Haftar began losing ground, his political behavior looked increasingly desperate, and his focus turned to his own political survival and relevance. In a matter of weeks, Haftar staged a failed military coup over his political allies in eastern Libya and promised to launch the largest air campaign in Libyan history against the GNA, before abruptly backtracking and announcing his desire for a new, inclusive peace process and a return to political talks. – Foreign Policy

A new commander has taken charge of U.S. naval forces in the Middle East as tensions with Iran continue to simmer. On Wednesday, newly promoted Vice Adm. Samuel Paparo took charge of U.S. 5th Fleet from Vice Adm. James Malloy in a change of command ceremony in Bahrain. – USNI News

Rob Rosenberg writes: National security threats have spurred U.S. agencies to overhaul global trade risk management practices before. Following 9/11, border agencies increased cooperation with international partners and adjusted their assessment of supply chains based on the risk of terrorism. To prepare for and mitigate the supply chain vulnerabilities that could emerge from great power competition, the U.S. must again adjust its assessments of supply chains for this new global trade paradigm. – The Hill

Chris Buckley writes: China has emerged from the coronavirus crisis, and its economy is recovering. But Mr. Xi and other senior officials meeting in Beijing late last month warned that China’s “international environment grows ever more complex, and instability and uncertainty have clearly increased.” They cited Mao’s notion of waging “protracted war” to drive home that warning. – New York Times

Paul D. Williams writes: For outside parties that want to stabilize Somalia, this suggests that the principal objective should be framed as political reconciliation rather than military victory. Again, it would be better to do this sooner rather than later. Moving forward, therefore, Washington should focus on increasing its diplomatic muscle to encourage these two sets of negotiations. This is preferable to both the main alternatives: continuing the business-as-usual approach of the last decade or abruptly disengaging militarily before the Somali security forces are able to stabilize the country. – War on the Rocks

Judd Devermont writes: The Malian government and relevant stakeholders need a fresh approach to manage and move past the conflict, including integrating parallel processes; incorporating key actors, including Islamists; and identifying new international guarantors for a revitalized peace process. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

CHINA CONTROLS SOUTH CHINA LITTORAL NATION STATES BY WATER MANAGEMENT, LIBYA & US DEFENSE SPENDING

7/27/2020

The Risks Of China's Three Gorges Dam's Flooding
by Michael R. Auslin via National Review
China has been suffering through record rains the past weeks, leading to the worst flooding in the country in decades. There is little relief in sight, and the Yangtze River is now above flood level, according to China’s Ministry of Water Resources. A few days ago, officials admitted that certain “peripheral” structures of the massive Three Gorges Dam deformed due to the building water pressure.

Turkey untroubled by conflict with Egypt, UAE in Libya
Ankara believes a large-scale Egyptian ground operation is highly unlikely in Libya, considering the likely dynamics of power struggles in the skies of Sirte and al-Jufra, between tribes in southern Libya and on air and naval logistical routes between Libya and Turkey.
Read More

Gary Schmitt points out that the speech gives the impression of an administration doubling down on its intent to meet the challenge of a rising, revisionist power. But changing Chinese behavior, as Secretary Pompeo wants, requires more presence and deterrence than the US military presently has in the Indo-Pacific. Read here.

Cutting the defense budget to restrain US foreign policy is a way to avoid tough choices and set clear priorities. In a Defense Priorities op-ed, Mackenzie Eaglen argues that just because the US can reduce the budget by $500 billion over 10 years does not mean that it should. If we take such cuts, we will have a hobbled and hollow force, nuclear uncertainties, emboldened adversaries, the destruction of domestic manufacturing industries, supply chain failures, and an isolated, less prosperous America. Substantial cuts to the defense budget, while possible, are fiscally irresponsible political theater. Read more here.

Last week, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo decried China’s “campaign of bullying” in the South China Sea (SCS) and pledged that the US “would not allow Beijing to treat the SCS as its maritime empire.” So what measures might be on the table because of the administration’s change in policy? In a War on the Rocks op-ed, Zack Cooper and Bonnie Glaser note that Washington should consider economic sanctions, more military patrols, capacity building, and tougher multilateral diplomacy. The US cannot prevent China from dominating the SCS and undermining the application of rules and norms in Asia’s maritime coasts without accepting more risk. Learn more here.

Iran requires a hard-line stance, but erasing a war criminal’s past because of antagonism toward Tehran is wrong because it affirms a strategy Saddam himself mastered. To forgive Baathism or other extremisms out of animus toward Tehran condemns the region to further bloodshed. Continue here.

Egypt is preparing to deploy its army outside its borders for the first time in almost 30 years. At issue is Libya, where Turkey has intervened to support Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj. But is Cairo about to make a mistake? There is no guarantee that Egypt will be able to achieve its aims quickly and at a cost the Egyptian economy can easily bear, points out Michael Rubin in a National Interest op-ed. Still, Egypt is correct to counter Turkey in Libya. It is time for Washington either to reassert counter-terror leadership itself or to back allies who wish to do so. Read here.

Peering into crystal ball; future of war
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salafi-jihadi-ecosystem-in-the-sahel.pdf
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BEYOND COUNTER-TERRORISM

HOW THE SALIFI-JIHADI MOVEMENT IS WINNING

beyond-counterterrorism.pdf
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road-to-the-caliphate-onepager.pdf
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road-to-the-caliphate.pdf
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