China's Military Incursions Around Taiwan Aren't A Sign Of Imminent Attack
by Kharis Templeman via The Diplomat
Instead, China’s military bravado represents the end state of a failed strategy.

​Last week, Armenia accepted a Russia- and Turkey-backed cease-fire, ending the 45-day war with Azerbaijan. Many are outraged, but the anger is warranted, notes Michael Rubin in a National Interest op-ed. Armenia lost much of southern Nagorno-Karabakh. Moreover, the deal calls for the deployment of Russian and Turkish troops along the lines of control. For now, Azerbaijan might celebrate, and Armenia will lick its wounds, but by engaging in ethnic cleansing, Azerbaijan has set the stage for a new chapter in the conflict. Read more here.

​Iran's Advances in Latin Americaby Gabriel Andrade
Middle East Quarterly
Fall 2020 (view PDF)
https://www.meforum.org/61462/iran-advances-in-latin-america

Hoover Institution Press Releases A Hinge Of History: Governance In An Emerging New World, By George P. Shultz And James Timbie
via Hoover Daily Report
The Hoover Institution has published A Hinge of History: Governance in an Emerging New World by Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford Distinguished Fellow George P. Shultz and Annenberg Distinguished Visiting Fellow James Timbie.

America Must Reshape Its Future With Nagorno-Karabakh
by Russell A. Berman via National Interest
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict may yet provide America an opening for an indirect approach to Turkey, while also pushing back against Russian expansionism.

Salafi-jihadi militants are exploiting the growing security vacuum in Ethiopia. Ethiopia’s intelligence service claimed to have arrested 14 militants linked to either al Qaeda affiliate al Shabaab or the Islamic State on November 14 for plotting attacks across Ethiopia, including in the capital.
 READ THE LATEST EDITION HERE

Pacific Century: Look, Up In The Sky
interview with Kenneth Wilsbach via The Pacific Century
America’s Air Chief in the Pacific Talks About China.

Palestinians: What Needs to Be Done  by Khaled Abu Toameh 

"Why Are You Killing Christians?" Trump Asks Nigeria's President  by Raymond Ibrahim 

American Election: Endgame for Party System?  by Amir Taheri 

The Past, Present, and Future of the Trans-Atlantic Alliance
Via Decision 2020In the twenty-first edition of the Decision 2020 Report, Hoover fellows analyze the policy implications of America’s commitment to Europe’s defenses, Washington’s strong stance against Russian aggression, and the state of the European Union as a capable and cohesive governing body.

Mahan Reincarnated!
Secretary of Defense Makes Strong Case for a Navy of Over 500 Ships
By Brent D. Sadler, RealClearDefense: “When The New York Times reported that Russia had likely deployed a nuclear-armed cruise missile in violation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty.” ​

S-400 alert, Turkish edition. Turkey appears to have fired a missile into the Black Sea where its "military was expected to test its Russian-made S-400 defence systems," Reuters reports.

"Erdogan has crossed the Rubicon, as Ankara no longer has any plausible deniability that the system is not fully activated," said Aykan Erdemir, former Turkish member of Parliament and current Senior Director of the Turkey Program at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies.
​
Erdemir's forecast: "Putin's bet to use Erdogan as a spoiler in NATO has paid off, as Turkey will continue to distract the transatlantic alliance by diverting its attention and resources away from pressing threats elsewhere," he writes. "Washington's inaction and the impunity Erdogan has so far enjoyed will encourage other states to go forward with their plans to purchase the S-400 air defense system and other big ticket military hardware from Russia."

EU slaps sanctions on Kremlin insider over links with Russian paramilitary group in Libya 
The European Union announced on Thursday sanctions on a Russian businessman and confidant of President Vladimir Putin over his alleged links to a Russian private military contractor accused of violating an arms embargo on Libya. Yevgeny Prigozhin is widely believed to be a leader of the Wagner Group, which operates as an unofficial arm of Russia's Defense Ministry. The Wagner Group has been accused of recruiting thousands of Syrian mercenaries to fight alongside Libya’s eastern military strongman Khalifa Hifter.  
Read More  
al-monitor.com

Net Assessment: We Need to Talk About Nukes 
with Zack Cooper, Melanie Marlowe, and Christopher Preble    

 US working to end Chinese secrecy around nuclear capabilities
(USNI News) America’s senior arms negotiator said Washington is taking diplomatic and military steps to put an end to Beijing’s “great wall of secrecy” that surrounds its rapid and expanding strategic weapons program.

 The status of US military power in 2020
(The Daily Signal) America’s competitors are developing and deploying new technologies that will make their conventional forces far more effective in open combat. The question before Congress is: Will the U.S. try to keep up?

Pentagon Has Big Plans for ‘Project Convergence’ in 2021
By Mandy Mayfield, National Defense Magazine: “The Defense Department is expanding an Army initiative known as "Project Convergence," with plans to bring in other services and international allies for the next iteration of the effort."

North Korea’s Two New Strategic Missiles:
What Do We Know and What Do They Mean for U.S. Deterrence?
By Joe Varner, Modern War Institute: “This year’s parade did not disappoint, with new strategic systems in the spotlight intended to convey Pyongyang’s capability to present new challenges to the United States’ and its allies’ security and nuclear deterrence."

For Baltic Defense, Forget the ‘Forest Brothers’
By Kevin Blachford & Ronald Ti, War on the Rocks: "The image of the partisan unexpectedly striking at the enemy, inflicting casualties and damage in a hail of gunfire, punctuated by explosions, before melting into the deep forests is a powerful metaphor for national resistance, determination, courage, and patriotism. The three Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania exist in a state of permanent precariousness, and the legacy of invasions, defiance, and independence has shaped the strategic culture of the Baltics to idealize such forms of paramilitary warfare."

Hypersonic defense; Leonardo's Lynn; Quad-A in person?; and more...
By Marcus Weisgerber

Priorities for 2021
Yuval Levin | NationalReview.com
We asked nine AEI scholars to offer guidance in their areas of expertise that the president might find useful in 2021 and beyond. But we asked them to do this while the presidential election whirls in the background, so they had to offer advice not to Donald Trump or Joe Biden but to America’s president.
Full Story 

Amid the efforts by the U.S. military and its potential adversaries to develop hypersonic weapons, an increasing number of defense companies are looking to crank up existing missile-defense systems to counter faster-flying threats.

"There [are] some technologies that are there today that are fielded that are effective," Scott Green, executive vice president of Lockheed Martin's $10 billion Missiles and Fire Control business, said in an interview Wednesday. "And there's some incremental things that you can do to the platforms that are out there today to make them more effective."

Lockheed Martin makes the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, air defense system, PAC-3 Patriot interceptor, and missile tracking radar. While Green wouldn't get into specifics, he said hypersonic defense is similar to traditional missile defense.

"The physics are similar," he said. You have to to turn up your agility based on the speeds of the incoming projectiles, but there's a lot that we do that can be reused."

Lockheed is hardly the only company vying for market share in both the offensive and defensive sides of the hypersonic battle. Raytheon executives have touted the company's desire to build defenses against hypersonic weapons. The company makes the Patriot system and other air- and missile-defense interceptors and tracking radars.

Lockheed Announces Team for DARPA Hypersonic Weapon Launcher Demo. Northrop Grumman will supply the solid rocket motor, Leidos' Dynetics will supply the canister, all-up round and fins, and support integration and test, and small business ECE will provide the booster power pyro module. "The goal of the Operational Fires (OpFires) program is to develop and demonstrate a novel ground-launched system enabling hypersonic boost glide weapons to penetrate modern enemy air defenses and rapidly and precisely engage critical time sensitive targets," according to DARPA. "OpFires seeks to develop an advanced booster capable of delivering a variety of payloads at a variety of ranges."

One-on-One with Bill Lynn of Leonardo DRS
Leonardo DRS CEO Bill Lynn, who was deputy defense secretary during the Obama administration, talks ships, the industrial base, and advice for Pentagon appointees if former Vice President Joe Bidwn wins next month's presidential election.

Q. What do you make of the 500-plus ship plan announced by Defense Secretary Mark Esper last week? What could it mean for Leonardo DRS?
A. It's a little hard to assess when [the plan] comes this late [in a presidential term]. I think we're going to need a kind of a program and a budget to see exactly how they're gonna flesh this out. But, we feel it's going to be okay for us. Our biggest Navy program is the new Columbia-class ballistic missile submarine; that's not going to change, no matter what. That's dictated by the half-life of a nuclear reactor. The schedule and the need is clearly not going to change. We're not going to abandon reliance on the sea-based deterrence.

In terms of ship counts ... we build things for both new ships and upgrading old ships. So if they buy new ships, our stuff goes on that. If they don't buy as many new ships, and they have to upgrade the older ships at a higher rate, we have that lane. So, we feel that we're in a pretty strong position however this comes out [but] I need to see a program and a budget before I can judge what this really changes,

Q. What programs are particularly at risk if the defense budget shrinks?
A. When the budget gets flatter, it forces the military departments into trade-offs. Cuts, the way the budget works, is that there's this ratchet effect of cost-of-living increases, in terms of salaries, in terms of benefits, in terms of the cost of technology. If the budget isn't going up at some rate, you're losing ground programmatically and so you have to make trade-offs — trade offs between force structure and modernization, trade offs between R&D and procurement, trade offs between current forces and future forces. I think we're starting down that path. 

I think we're in a pretty good position there, because we're not dependent on any single program. We don't have big, multibillion-dollar programs where a single decision could change our whole outlook. Obviously, we're not looking for anything to be canceled, but we can absorb changes, I think, reasonably well. 

We're not dependent on building new platforms for our growth....We build the communications, the sensors, the electronics, the gear that goes inside the platforms, whether it's an upgraded legacy platform or a new platform, our business continues. So it's not that these trade off don't change our trajectory some, but we feel we're pretty stable.

Q. As someone who presided over a shift in Pentagon priorities, what advice would you give the next administration as they evaluate the current portfolio?
A. Make hard decisions early. It...doesn't get easier. Set a course and stick to it. You're going to be in better shape than if you try, and hope that maybe in a year or two things will be a little bit different. You can defer the decisions [but] almost inevitably, that means that the decision you're faced with that is harder [it was] a year or two ago. You can't get lulled to complacency by the hope that maybe the fiscal situation or something will improve. It's far easier to react to that than the opposite.

Q. What's the next big M&A?
A. We've consolidated so much since the early 90s. There's less room for it then there was. It doesn't mean it can't happen. Certainly the Raytheon-UTC [merger], I didn't see it coming. There's certainly room for some changes, but I think you can't see that big massive consolidation you saw in the early '90s because there's just not enough players to allow it. But could there be more single episodes of consolidation? Sure.

Oshkosh Developing New JLTV Packages 
The maker of the Army's Joint Light Tactical Vehicle has already delivered more than 8,800 vehicles and is developing new configurations of the armored truck that is replacing tens of thousands of Humvees. Among the more than 100 upgrade kits are a blast-protected ambulance and a command-and-control vehicle. "We believe that we are the vehicle and we're ready for any near-peer threat," George Mansfield, vice president and general manager of joint programs at Oshkosh Defense, said in an interview. The packages are modular and could be installed on existing vehicles. "We're working on some…additional kits for different configurations on the JLTV right now," he said.

Between a rock and hard place: Iran’s dilemma in Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
Tehran is sending forces to its borders in anticipation of the Armenian-Azeri conflict spilling over.

Egypt rallies Arab states against Turkey in Syria
Cairo is capitalizing on anger over the Turkish intervention in Syria to unite the Arab ranks in support of Damascus.  Read More  

The 'Nevertheless' Club and the World  by Amir Taheri

Is It Inevitable That After Brexit Scots Will Quit United Kingdom?Time, Says Our Brexit Diariest, for Boris Johnson To Honor ‘Old Fashioned’ Ideas He Once Extolled
By STEPHEN MacLEAN, Special to the Sun | September 26, 2020
https://www.nysun.com/foreign/is-it-inevitable-that-scots-quit-uk-after-brexit/91274/
"Centralization is the death-blow of public freedom." So Benjamin Disraeli declared. "It is the citadel of the oligarchs from which, if once erected, it will be impossible to dislodge them." So why is Boris Johnson flouting this most cherished conservative principle?
Continue Reading

China’s telecom firms in the US are in trouble  By Stephen Bryen
An influential US Senate subcommittee, the Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, has issued a strongly negative report about Chinese telecoms operating in the United States. While the subcommittee stopped short of saying the Chinese telecom companies should be removed from the US telecoms market, the report is tilted strongly in that direction. Read More

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Read More  US. vs.  CHINA writes Dilip Hiro
writes David Goldman.

​Few Americans did, which is why it’s worth telling the story of how Saudi, Emirati and Qatari money flooded the nation’s capital and, in the process, American policy went down for the count. Read More

Saudi Arabia Isn't Just Raising Taxes’: For autocratic regimes, increasing taxes could put their survival at risk.

Political dynamics rapidly changing in Pakistan  By Imad Zafar
Change is the only constant in the world, whereas stagnation leads to the death of a society. Ever since 2014 when a sit-in led by Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) was held against the elected government of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), the country has been going through a period of stagnation. Read More

Phase one is a failure
Zack Cooper and Derek Scissors | RealClearWorld
The phase one trade deal with China is on its last legs. The question should be what comes next. The best answer is targeted retaliation to deter China's predatory economic and security behavior.

Reading the inflation tea leaves
Paul H. Kupiec | AEIdeas
Depending on how you interpret recent data on inflation, it might be premature to dismiss the possibility that problematic inflation may soon return.

Blame It on the Blob? How to Evaluate American Grand Strategy by Francis J. Gavin

When You’re Outnumbered: Lessons from Two British Masters of Irregular Warfare by Christopher D. Booth

Net Assessment: Time to Rethink U.S. Policy Toward Putin’s Russia? with Zack Cooper, Melanie Marlowe, and Christopher Preble 

• AEI’s Michael Rubin: US policy and Erdogan
  
• Bloomberg’s Eli Lake: Israel’s new friendship with the UAE will come at a cost
  

• AEI’s Michael Rubin: US policy and Erdogan
  
• Bloomberg’s Eli Lake: Israel’s new friendship with the UAE will come at a cost
  

Eva Kahan writes: Major tribal leaders in eastern Syria may break away from the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which would severely jeopardize the anti-ISIS mission by fracturing the US partner force in Syria.  […]Tribal animosity toward the SDF has been building since mid-2019 due to the combined pressures of overlapping ISIS and pro-regime insurgencies as well as the SDF’s weak and under-resourced governance. The continued presence of SDF and coalition forces in Deir ez-Zour could become untenable if the SDF fails to find a compromise with increasingly fractured tribal elements. – Institute for the Study of War

Michael Rubin writes: The danger has never been higher. With Washington distracted, Trump unpredictable, and Europe susceptible to Erdogan’s cynical refugee blackmail, Erdogan may believe that the time is now to seize Kastellorizo and other Greek islands. Should Trump lose, he may see the final weeks of his presidency as the best chance to act. Neither Trump nor Biden is ready; let us hope Greece is. Either way, a need to respond to war in the Eastern Mediterranean may soon grow to overshadow both the Trump and potentially Biden legacies. – Kathimerini

Amos Gilad writes: The only way to maintain peace and long-term stability in the region is for Israel to prevent the sale of American-made F-35 fighter jets to any other Middle Eastern state, regardless of current or future relations. – Ynet

Bobby Ghosh writes: In either case, they have been making alternative arrangements to deal with the Iranian menace. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have both been splurging on the latest military hardware from the U.S. and Europe — and even China and Russia. And the new Emirati agreement with Israel was inspired in no small part by a desire to box in the Islamic Republic. The best the Trump administration can expect from its Arab allies if the snapback gambit fails is quiet commiseration. – Bloomberg

Yousef Al Otaiba writes: In the most tumultuous place on earth, the UAE and Israel will now try to defy this fate. […]This week, the gate was opened. And together, Emiratis and Israelis will now step through it. Like all journeys, there will be discovery and difficulty. At times, we may even argue about the direction. But the destination is as clear and as certain as ever – a more peaceful, prosperous and hopeful Middle East. – Ynet

Sarah Feuer writes: Whether the Egyptian government manages to elevate such reformist voices and develop a convincing alternative to Al-Azhar’s brand of conservatism remains to be seen. If it succeeds, however, it would likely bolster Egypt’s stability and advance the broader regional battle between moderate and extremist streams of Islamic thought—two outcomes in which Washington has a clear interest. Sisi’s government deserves much criticism for its human rights abuses and abysmal record on upholding basic democratic principles. But in the arena of religious reform, growing state control could be a step in the right direction. – Washington Institute

William Morrissey and John Givens write: The United States should adopt a national strategy on standardization to advance its own interests — not because China already has one, and not as a counterpunch to Beijing. While China Standards 2035 is likely to be ambitious, it will not cover the gamut of rapidly transforming technologies. A defensive U.S. response could be undermined by the global rejection of efforts to simply keep China out. Any strategy should be focused on enhancing U.S. advantages and protecting the existing model. Standardization’s openness is both its success and its vulnerability. Ensuring that it remains open is a necessity. – War on the Rocks

Hal Brands writes: We sometimes think of the U.S.-China competition as a fundamentally different kind of great-power contest, one whose outcome will be determined more by control of data than by control of strategic terrain. Yet it is also an old-fashioned military rivalry, with all the perils that entails. It would be catastrophic if the free world were to lose Taiwan. It might also be hard, costly and dangerous to keep it. – Bloomberg

Terrorists in the Sahel region of Africa are poised to take advantage of uncertainty in the American defense posture following a recent Defense Department announcement, but U.S. Africa Command shored up partners with a military equipment donation to Niger on Friday. – Washington Examiner ​

Maj. Gen. Matthew G. Glavy and Brett Goldstein write: This project should shape not only future Marine Corps efforts, but future Department of Defense projects for years to come. The team demonstrated a cost-effective, iterative procedure that can quickly field a precise capability needed to accomplish a task. Now is time to empower military talent to build the modern software development capabilities the Pentagon so desperately needs. There is much work to be done. – War on the Rocks

New era dawns for China’s next-gen submarine  By Dave Makichuk
Has the Chinese Navy moved a step closer to the next generation of powerful nuclear submarines, matching the US and the Russians in the global game of deadly deterrence? According to a report in Forbes magazine, new evidence at the Bohai shipyard in China points to big things ahead for the Chinese Navy. Read More

China’s energy weakness will lose the New Cold War  By Tim Daiss
Imagine: A Chinese-flagged super tanker bound for the mainland has just turned off its automatic identification system to hide an Iranian oil shipment in violation of US sanctions. Read More

Kazakhstan holds the secret for Greater Eurasia  By Pepe Escobar
The no-holds-barred US-China strategic competition may be leading us to the complete fragmentation of the current “world-system,” as American sociologist and economic historian Immanuel Wallerstein defined it. Read More

The man who drove the US out of Afghanistan
By Fazelminallah Qazizai 
The first time Mullah Ibrahim Sadar confronted US forces in Afghanistan he was given a lesson in the brutal reality of war that he would never forget. To those who later watched him rise through the Taliban’s ranks and win the respect of al-Qaeda’s inner circle, his sense of purpose was evident even then.

Dollar’s pain not yet the yuan’s gain
 By William Pesek
As markets fret about the stability of US President Donald Trump’s dollar, more attention should be focused on why China’s currency is still so unready for prime time. Has there been a better moment, as Sino-US tensions explode, for the yuan to take its rightful place as among the world’s top two unit of exchange than now?

A cheaper, faster way to nuclear fusion
By Jonathan Tennenbaum
One of the most notable features of Eric Lerner’s approach to fusion using the Dense Plasma Focus (DPF), presented in Part 1 and Part 2 of this series, lies in the possibility of using hydrogen and boron as a fuel. This property is shared by the hydrogen-boron laser fusion reactor, which I discussed in a previous series of articles in Asia Times.

Erdoğan Needs New Enemies  by Burak Bekdil 

Goodbye - Sort Of - To Germany?
by Victor Davis Hanson via National Review
Why should America anchor Germany's defense? It cuts deals with Russia, has never met its NATO commitment, and is the most anti-American nation in Europe.

Haftar to allow limited Libya oil exports to ease power gap

Since its formation in 2009, the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps – Intelligence Organisation (IRGC-IO) has gained increasing dominance over the domestic security sphere in Iran. Under the direct control of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, it has targeted officials, journalists, lawyers, activists, and dual nationals, severely undermining the policies and status of successive elected governments. In doing so, it has encroached upon, and in many respects sidelined, the government’s Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS). – Jane’s 360 
​
Seth J. Frantzman writes: Minister of Defense Amir Hatami said that in the field of missiles Iran has reached real deterrent power. He argued that now Iran’s missiles can reach 2,000 km and that this new Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis missile can reach 1,000 km. In solid fuel missiles Iran also says it has a range up to 1,400 with other missiles. It is not clear if these boasts have been proven but Iran did use ballistic missiles to target the US in Iraq in January and has targeted ISIS in Syria. […]This shows Iran has reached sophisticated levels of missile and drone production. It also used cruise missiles against Saudi Arabia last year, coordinating the attack with drones. Not all the cruise missiles made it to their targets.- Jerusalem Post

Toward A World Free From Nuclear Weapons
by James Goodby via PolicyEd
Achieving a nuclear-free world starts with a joint effort from nuclear-capable countries to mitigate the factors that drive nations to possess these weapons.

Gen. Frank McKenzie said troop reductions in Iraq have forced the remaining Americans into a defensive crouch against continued Iranian-backed militia attacks. It's enough to do the job, with Iraqis, he said, but it's preventing the U.S. from pursuing ISIS. Iran is now the CENTCOM chief's top focus, signaling a shift in policy and the times. Recall that, here.

"Five U.S. firms including Chevron Corp signed agreements on Wednesday with the Iraqi government aimed at boosting Iraq's energy independence from Iran," Reuters reported Wednesday. 
​
The companies involved in that five-firm deal signed Wednesday: Honeywell International Inc, Baker Hughes Co, General Electric Co, Stellar Energy and Chevron. Altogether, the companies "signed commercial agreements worth as much as $8 billion with the Iraqi ministers of oil and electricity," according to Reuters. More on all that, here.

We need to be creative in support of Iraqi Prime Minister Kadhimi
Kenneth Pollack | The Hill
Today, the president will meet Iraq’s new prime minister, Mustafa al-Kadhimi, at the White House. This is more than an important event; it is a strategically crucial one.

Hussein Ibish writes: To its deep discomfort, Hezbollah can no longer operate behind the façade of the state. The Lebanese government most directly responsible for the port explosion was entirely made up of Hezbollah allies. Its militia defends the corrupt political and economic system that has hollowed out the country. – Bloomberg

Turkey’s lira has been driven to record lows on concerns that lower interest rates, depleting FX reserves and a flood of easy credit could pave the way to a second currency crisis in as many years. – Reuters ​

Seth J. Frantzman writes: The fact that it put to sea its research vessel and seven naval vessels shows this is a real display of force. Ankara has also recruited lobbying firms in Washington and think tanks and experts to push its case via various media. This is a full-court press by Ankara that combines, in a Clausewitz-like style, the military, research vessels, energy claims, politics, foreign policy, Syrian mercenaries, lobbyists and media. Whether France, Greece, Egypt and others can actually work together to deal with this issue and get the US to take it seriously rather than give-in to Turkey’s unclear demands, remains to be seen. – Jerusalem Post

Seth J. Frantzman writes: The impunity of assassinations illustrates how militias, many affiliated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, are working slowly and systematically to silence any dissent. This is especially true for targeting young people and women. The goal is to preserve the system that arose in Iraq in the last decade, a rule that is increasingly beholden to militias, clerics, and the politics of the gun. – Jerusalem Post 
​
Kenneth M. Pollack writes: Alternatively, if becomes clear that even Kadhimi — with his technocratic smarts, his non-partisan nationalism, and the assumed support of the United States — cannot begin to move Iraq in the right direction, the Iraqi people may turn against the system entirely and opt for a revolution that would be unlikely to work out well for the United States. – The Hill

Sam Magdy writes: The exact impact of the dam on downstream countries Egypt and Sudan remains unknown. For Egyptian farmers, the daunting prospect adds a new worry on top of the other causes of mounting water scarcity. Egypt is already spreading its water resources thin. Its booming population, now over 100 million, has one of the lowest per capita shares of water in the world, at around 550 cubic meters per year, compared to a global average of 1,000 – Associated Press
​
Haisam Hassanein writes: In response, however, Washington should make clear that the future of peacemaking will be dictated by regional normalization. In other words, Egypt will need to join the normalization camp after stalling for years, or else watch its prestige and international influence continue to diminish. Cairo has not been serious about normalizing with Israel for years. […]These policies need to end if Cairo wants to be a major peace mediator and regional player in the changing Arab-Israeli paradigm. – Washington Institute

Donna Abu-Nasr writes: The rise of the UAE as a new power broker in the region could mark a shift in Arab leadership, dilute Saudi influence, and further fracture Gulf Arab unity. The kingdom has to balance that immediate geopolitical concern against other ideological ones. As the location of the holy cities of Mecca and Medina, Saudi Arabia is the symbolic leader of the global Muslim community, which is overwhelmingly sympathetic to the Palestinians. The Saudis’ archenemy Iran would likely pounce on any hint that Riyadh’s support for the Palestinians was wobbling. – Bloomberg

Anas El Gomati writes: As Haftar began losing ground, his political behavior looked increasingly desperate, and his focus turned to his own political survival and relevance. In a matter of weeks, Haftar staged a failed military coup over his political allies in eastern Libya and promised to launch the largest air campaign in Libyan history against the GNA, before abruptly backtracking and announcing his desire for a new, inclusive peace process and a return to political talks. – Foreign Policy

A new commander has taken charge of U.S. naval forces in the Middle East as tensions with Iran continue to simmer. On Wednesday, newly promoted Vice Adm. Samuel Paparo took charge of U.S. 5th Fleet from Vice Adm. James Malloy in a change of command ceremony in Bahrain. – USNI News ​

Rob Rosenberg writes: National security threats have spurred U.S. agencies to overhaul global trade risk management practices before. Following 9/11, border agencies increased cooperation with international partners and adjusted their assessment of supply chains based on the risk of terrorism. To prepare for and mitigate the supply chain vulnerabilities that could emerge from great power competition, the U.S. must again adjust its assessments of supply chains for this new global trade paradigm. – The Hill 
​
Chris Buckley writes: China has emerged from the coronavirus crisis, and its economy is recovering. But Mr. Xi and other senior officials meeting in Beijing late last month warned that China’s “international environment grows ever more complex, and instability and uncertainty have clearly increased.” They cited Mao’s notion of waging “protracted war” to drive home that warning. – New York Times

Paul D. Williams writes: For outside parties that want to stabilize Somalia, this suggests that the principal objective should be framed as political reconciliation rather than military victory. Again, it would be better to do this sooner rather than later. Moving forward, therefore, Washington should focus on increasing its diplomatic muscle to encourage these two sets of negotiations. This is preferable to both the main alternatives: continuing the business-as-usual approach of the last decade or abruptly disengaging militarily before the Somali security forces are able to stabilize the country. – War on the Rocks 
​
Judd Devermont writes: The Malian government and relevant stakeholders need a fresh approach to manage and move past the conflict, including integrating parallel processes; incorporating key actors, including Islamists; and identifying new international guarantors for a revitalized peace process. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

The Risks Of China's Three Gorges Dam's Flooding
by Michael R. Auslin via National Review
China has been suffering through record rains the past weeks, leading to the worst flooding in the country in decades. There is little relief in sight, and the Yangtze River is now above flood level, according to China’s Ministry of Water Resources. A few days ago, officials admitted that certain “peripheral” structures of the massive Three Gorges Dam deformed due to the building water pressure. 

Turkey untroubled by conflict with Egypt, UAE in Libya
Ankara believes a large-scale Egyptian ground operation is highly unlikely in Libya, considering the likely dynamics of power struggles in the skies of Sirte and al-Jufra, between tribes in southern Libya and on air and naval logistical routes between Libya and Turkey.
Read More  

Gary Schmitt points out that the speech gives the impression of an administration doubling down on its intent to meet the challenge of a rising, revisionist power. But changing Chinese behavior, as Secretary Pompeo wants, requires more presence and deterrence than the US military presently has in the Indo-Pacific.  Read here.

Cutting the defense budget to restrain US foreign policy is a way to avoid tough choices and set clear priorities. In a Defense Priorities op-ed, Mackenzie Eaglen argues that just because the US can reduce the budget by $500 billion over 10 years does not mean that it should. If we take such cuts, we will have a hobbled and hollow force, nuclear uncertainties, emboldened adversaries, the destruction of domestic manufacturing industries, supply chain failures, and an isolated, less prosperous America. Substantial cuts to the defense budget, while possible, are fiscally irresponsible political theater.  Read more here.

Last week, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo decried China’s “campaign of bullying” in the South China Sea (SCS) and pledged that the US “would not allow Beijing to treat the SCS as its maritime empire.” So what measures might be on the table because of the administration’s change in policy? In a War on the Rocks op-ed, Zack Cooper and Bonnie Glaser note that Washington should consider economic sanctions, more military patrols, capacity building, and tougher multilateral diplomacy. The US cannot prevent China from dominating the SCS and undermining the application of rules and norms in Asia’s maritime coasts without accepting more risk. Learn more here.

Iran requires a hard-line stance, but erasing a war criminal’s past because of antagonism toward Tehran is wrong because it affirms a strategy Saddam himself mastered. To forgive Baathism or other extremisms out of animus toward Tehran condemns the region to further bloodshed. Continue here.

Egypt is preparing to deploy its army outside its borders for the first time in almost 30 years. At issue is Libya, where Turkey has intervened to support Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj. But is Cairo about to make a mistake? There is no guarantee that Egypt will be able to achieve its aims quickly and at a cost the Egyptian economy can easily bear, points out Michael Rubin in a National Interest op-ed. Still, Egypt is correct to counter Turkey in Libya. It is time for Washington either to reassert counter-terror leadership itself or to back allies who wish to do so. Read here.

Tunisian president appoints former adviser as prime minister 
Tunisia's President Kais Saied appointed over the weekend Interior Minister Hichem Mechichi as the new prime minister amid a deep political crisis. Mechichi replaces Elyes Fakhfakh who resigned earlier this month over accusations of having conflicts of interest regarding a business he has shares in that has received some $15 million worth of public contracts. If the new prime minister-designate fails to form a new government within a month, the president will dissolve parliament and call for new elections at a time the country is grappling with a serious economic crisis made worse by the coronavirus outbreak.
 Read More  
reuters.com

Erdogan meets Libya’s Sarraj in Istanbul amid Libya escalation 
Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the head of Libya’s internationally-recognized government met in Istanbul on Saturday amid escalating tensions over Sirte and al-Jufra. Erdogan and Fayez al-Sarraj, the head of Libya’s western Government of National Accord, discussed the latest in the conflict, Turkey’s presidency said in a statement. Sarraj’s visit came as the Turkish-backed GNA forces are preparing for a military operation to seize control of the strategic coastal province of Sirte and central Libya’s al-Jufra base. Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi declared the two targets a “red line,” and has threatened to militarily intervene on Gen. Khalifa Hifter’s side if the GNA should advance on Sirte and al-Jufra. Along with Egypt, the United Emirates and Russia also back Hifter’s forces. The United States military last week released aerial imagery that it said depicted Russian military forces near Sirte, suggesting Russia may be gearing up to defend the coastal city. Erdogan also discussed the possibility of a “political solution” in Libya during a phone call with Italy's Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte.
 Read More  
iletisim.gov.tr

Russian Oil Grab in Libya Fuels US-Kremlin Tensions 
A recent move by Russia’s Wagner paramilitary forces into Libya’s southern oil fields is escalating tensions between the United States and Russia over Libya’s future. US officials are becoming concerned that Russian mercenaries are increasingly focused on taking over the country’s petroleum industry after a company owned by Russian businessman and confidant of President Vladimir Putin, Yevgeny Prigozhin, set up shop in the coastal town of Es Sider, east of Sirte. The US Treasury Department expanded its sanctions on Prigozhin-owned companies earlier this month. Prigozhin is widely believed to oversee the Wagner mercenaries, who operate as an arm of Russia's Defense Ministry.
Read More  ​

Eritrea weighs role in Egypt-Ethiopia dispute over Nile dam
 Eritrea’s president visited Cairo against the backdrop of the faltering talks on the Nile dam dispute, raising questions about Eritrea’s role in helping reach an agreement between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan.

Anger flares as Ethiopia announces, denies Nile dam filling has started
 Ethiopia has denied reports that the filling of its controversial Nile mega dam has begun.

Washington’s response to counterrevolutionary agendas in Libya
Khalid Al-Jaber, Giorgio Cafiero

Why did Moscow call Ankara’s Hagia Sophia decision “Turkey’s internal affair”?
Maxim A. Suchkov

Russia’s approach to Responsibility to Protect in the Black Sea and Syria
Ketevan Murusidze

The eastern Mediterranean heats up as conflicts over energy move onshore
Geoffrey Aronson

New old dynamics at play in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict
Thomas de Waal

India's Labour And Farm Reforms Should Be Just A Start
quoting Frank Dikötter via Live Mint
A look at the East Asian development model offers an indication of how much more must be done.

No Cause For Alarm
quoting Thomas Sowell via City Journal
Different demographic groups excelling in different areas of endeavor does not prove discrimination.

We Still Have More Questions Than Answers on Russian Bounties

Thrones Wreathed in Shadow: Tacitus and the Psychology of Authoritarianism by Iskander Rehman

Dov S. Zakheim writes: Perhaps, as Trump’s poll numbers continue to sink, Putin will decide that he must exploit the window of opportunity that he now has to move his forces into Belarus, thereby placing Poland in a Russian vise. Even if he does not, Putin’s extended tenure means that Russia no longer can be seen solely as a near-term threat to American interests. On the contrary, the next several presidents will have to contend with a man whose life’s mission is, as Kennan so elegantly put it in his Long Telegram, “to seek security only in patient but deadly struggle for total destruction of rival power.” – The Hill
​
David B. Rivkin Jr. and George S. Beebe write: Confirmed or not, the allegations should serve as a sobering reminder that unconstrained shadow warfare with Moscow can produce genuine dangers for Americans. One glaring difference between the Cold War and today is that the Cold War was fought within the parameters of agreed rules. Today, we have almost none. We would be wise to consider this as our national discourse on Russia proceeds. – The Hill

Tokyo pulled out of a new missile defense system, ostensibly because it does not want to be “caught in the middle” of a confrontation, writes Stephen Bryern

A major report released by China’s National Institute for South China Sea Studies warns of the dangers of rising tension in Sino-American affairs. Gordon Watts explains that concerns are growing that intense rivalry could spill over into “armed conflict”.

The nation announced a major shift in its defense strategy to challenge China’s threat in the Indo-Pacific, with US$185 billion newly budgeted for long-range missiles, satellite surveillance and other counter-measures, reports Alan Boyd.

Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan’s coalition government faces a tri-pronged threat comprised of political defections, a spiraling Covid-19 outbreak and a collapsing economy, a triple whammy that some reckon could cut short his elected tenure, reports FM Shankil.

Why Adam Smith’s Critique of Mercantilism Matters Today

Saudi Arabia: Saudi-Led Coalition Starts Military Operation Against Yemen’s Houthis.  A Saudi-led coalition started a military operation against Yemen’s Houthi movement on Wednesday.  This comes after Yemen’s Houthi Rebels executed cross-border missile and drone attacks last week.  Yemen has reported air strikes on the capital Sanaa, Marib, al-Jouf, al-Bayda, Hajjah, and Saada provinces throughout the day and into the night.  Haaretz Reuters The New York Times

Algerian court imprisons officials, figures linked to former regime 
An Algerian court sentenced to prison several officials and businessmen linked to former President Abdelaziz Bouteflika on charges of corruption on Wednesday. Prominent tycoon Ali Haddad was slapped with an 18-year jail sentence. Meanwhile, Abdelmalek Sellal and Ahmed Ouyahia, former prime ministers who are already behind bars for other graft cases, were each handed a 12-year jail term. Jail terms ranging between two to 20 years were also handed down to eight former ministers. Authorities in Algeria have arrested several of the country’s wealthiest businessmen and former officials amid protests that continued despite Bouteflika's resignation last year, as Algerians demand a transition to democracy and the trial of figures linked to the former regime.  Read More  
yahoo.com

Oriana Skylar Mastro testified before the House Foreign Affairs Committee Subcommittee on Asia, the Pacific, and Nonproliferation to discuss how Beijing’s aims for maritime power engage US interests. Mastro recommended that Washington prioritize countering Chinese ambitions in the South China Sea and the East China Sea and devise a hedging strategy in the Indian Ocean. For any of these initiatives to succeed, however, Washington will need a lasting strategy to deter China's aggression. The US has made some progress in this regard, but given the extent of China’s maritime ambitions, it is not yet enough. Read the testimony here.

For years, there have been good reasons to move or keep certain supply chains out of China, and advanced semiconductors may top the list. Strengthening the US over China in the chip industry will require precisely crafted legislation, notes Derek Scissors in an AEIdeas blog post. One set of needed legal restrictions is export controls applied to all state-funded advanced products and technologies. However, supply chains should not be confined to the US. If friendly countries abide by export controls and restrictions on dealings with China, their participation could be advantageous. US-China competition is long term, and leveraging new semiconductor chains will pull countries and companies toward helping us.  Continue here.

Last week, the Australian government published a white paper on defense and national strategy. The report underscores that Australia is ramping up its defense spending by 40 percent over the next decade, accounting for China’s aggressive behavior in the region and toward Canberra itself, notes Gary Schmitt in an American Interest article. As most countries get ready to tighten their belts in the wake of COVID-19, the Australian government intends to deal with the security environment as it is, not as it hopes it might be.  Read more here.

The domino theory, in which setbacks accumulate quickly and catastrophically, is one of the most controversial ideas in US foreign policy. But the 70th anniversary of the Korean War alerts us that domino dynamics could affect US-China competition today. In a Bloomberg op-ed, Hal Brands points out that if China took control over Taiwan, it would undermine US strategy throughout the region and would unsettle nearby countries dependent on American power. This doesn’t mean the US should go all out to compete with China everywhere, but competition reminds us that what happens in one country may not stay there. Learn more here.

Autocratic regimes like Vladimir Putin’s Russia have enacted measures that oppress their citizens under the guise of fighting the coronavirus. The Trump administration should seek to hold governments like Russia accountable. But that is not the case this time, note Dalibor Rohac and Melissa Hooper in a Hill op-ed. If the administration is silent, then Congress must act. Congress can direct, structure, and fund federal action needed to combat autocratic power grabs and coordinate such efforts with other similarly minded nations. Continue here.

Michael Rubin writes: This is why not only Congress and the Pentagon, but also the State Department and the National Security Council should consider the impact of rebasing U.S. forces leaving Germany in Poland, especially when other alternatives exist in the Baltics, Romania, or the Czech Republic. The question then becomes whether Poland’s anti-democratic leaders will see the U.S. presence less as a defense against Russia and more as a means to immunize themselves from returning to the democratic order. U.S. forces should be in Europe to protect the liberal order, not to accelerate its end. – The National Interest

Turkey entrenches further into Libya as rivals strike back
Turkey’s government has signaled that its military intervention on the side of Libya’s internationally recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) will deepen, part of a broader campaign to assert dominance in the gas-rich eastern Mediterranean and to bolster flagging support at home.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s communications office announced via Twitter late Sunday that Libya’s largest airbase, Al Jufra, and the coastal city of Sirte will be among its next targets. Both are controlled by the GNA’s Libyan National Army (LNA) foes led by the eastern warlord Khalifa Hifter.
Read Full Article  

Turkey launches ground incursion into Iraqi Kurdistan 
Turkey sent ground forces into the Kurdistan Region of Iraq today to attack suspected Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) targets. The operation is in the Haftanin area near the Turkish border. The ground operation follows Turkish bombings of suspected PKK targets across Iraq on Monday. Turkey has used ground troops before and has military bases in the area. Many locals and the Iraqi federal government have condemned the attacks. 
Read More  
rudaw.net

US sanctions on Syria go into effect 
A new wave of US sanctions on Syria goes into effect today as part of efforts to push the Syrian government into UN-led negotiations to end the nine-year war. “Our aim is to deprive the Assad regime of the revenue and the support it has used to commit the large-scale atrocities and human rights violations that prevent a political resolution and severely diminish the prospects for peace,” US Ambassador to the UN Kelly Craft told the Security Council on Tuesday. The Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act sanctions anyone who provides support to the Syrian government’s military operations or does business with Syria’s military, energy, construction and engineering sectors. Syria is reeling from an economic crisis, while rare anti-government protests are ongoing in the south. 
Read More  
reuters.com

Seth J. Frantzman writes: The US and Iran might find themselves on the same side in Libya via Turkey. It all hinges on Cairo now. If Cairo has a military footprint in Libya it can do what Turkey has successfully done and leverage it for concessions. For now Egypt must watch and contemplate the next step. Everyone is also looking to Washington to do more than just hint that it supports both Egypt’s ceasefire proposal and Ankara’s approach. What happens next will also affect Washington’s other allies, in Jerusalem and Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. – Jerusalem Post

Blaise Misztal is a fellow at Hudson Institute. His research program focuses on the Middle East, Europe, and strategic competition. Most recently, Misztal served as the Executive Director of the Task Force on Extremism in Fragile States, a congressionally mandated project convened by the U.S. Institute of Peace. Prior to that, he was director of the Bipartisan Policy Center’s national security program.
Relevant articles:
·       
https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-turkey-shunned-russian-gas-its-companies-amassed-debt-11592216429
·         
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/irans-zarif-went-to-turkey-to-push-close-relations-631517
·         
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/turkish-plan-to-invade-greece-leaked-in-secret-reveal-report-631641
·         
https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/06/18/world/middleeast/18reuters-turkey-blast.html
·         
https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/06/turkey-strikes-pkk-kurdistan-iraq-sinjar-erdogan-hdp-akp.html

Russia’s ally in Libya is battered by defeats. But Moscow has wider goals to expand its influence.

How Russia made Hemeimeem air base its African hub
The satellite images published on May 26 by AFRICOM appear to confirm reports that Russian MiG-29 jet fighters had flown to Libya. In fact, the MiG-29s travelled to Libya via Russia's Hemeimeem air base in Syria, and as this latest episode makes clear, Hemeimeem plays a central role in Russia’s growing involvement in both the Mediterranean and Africa.
Read Article

Spring 2020 Issue Middle East Journal 

​The Congella Power Station completed in 1928 was one of the first power plants built and owned by Eskom.

Gregory Copley, Defense and Foreign Affairs; in re: The South Africa Act 1909 amalgamated the four previously separate British colonies: Cape Colony, Colony of Natal, Transvaal Colony, and Orange River Colony.  A 1960 referendum  legitimized the country becoming the Republic of South Africa. On 27 April 1994, after decades of armed struggle, terrorism and international opposition to Apartheid, a deeply cruel anti-Black system invented and instituted by the Boers,  the African National Congress (ANC) achieved victory in the country's first democratic election. Since then, the African National Congress has governed South Africa, in an alliance with the South African Communist Party and the Congress of South African Trade Unions.

The economy of South Africa is the second largest in Africa, after Nigeria. At present, South Africa has an extreme and persistent high unemployment rate of over 25%, which interacts with other socioeconomic problems such as: inadequate education, poor health and high levels of crime.

The ANC, home to the most distinguished revolutionaries of the Twentieth Century, was long seen as the saviour of the entire society.  As it now stands, it looks as though the ANC has failed; that much-publicized criminality at high levels seems to have looted the state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to such a degree that the entire country might break into separate divisions. How this might occur is discussed in the segment.
..  ..  ..  
With salutations to Johnnie Mfanafuthi Makatini (1932-1988

US B-1 bomber drills aim at China, Russia  By Stephen Bryan
In three major military operations, the US used B-1 bombers in missions aimed at Chinese fortified reefs and islands in the South China Sea, a strategic foray into the Okhotsk Sea aimed at Russia and a Black Sea mission that involved elements of Ukraine’s Air Force. Read More

Trump’s China policy at a cul-de-sac  By MK Bhadrakumar
This past week has been a catastrophic seven days that shook America. Some of the debris may have fallen on President Donald Trump. Most importantly, the Trump administration has lost the plot on China. Read More

Cleo Paskal, non-resident senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, @CleoPaskal, in re: Eastern Ladakh, China invades India.  China normally does fur steps forward, three steps back; but India [no longer is playing].  India has banned 59 Chinese apps: turns out they're espionage devised to monitor location, payment, et al. Can be used for blackmail and industrial espionage. Also China needs metadata for its military AI development. Effect is economic really huge: banned TikTok, removing $6 billion valuation, and=s well as allows development in India. Very smart and quick!  It'd be excellent if the US did the same thing, which it’s contemplating.  China doesn’t let Facebook or even Wikipedia into China.  . . . Decoupling the US and China—get the Chinese out of our society. 
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tiktok-pompeo-united-states-weighing-ban-chinese-social-media-apps/

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/internet/us-mulling-tiktok-ban-indias-digital-strike-to-hurt-more-than-what-china-expected/videoshow/76838104.cms 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tiktok-pompeo-united-states-weighing-ban-chinese-social-media-apps/

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/internet/us-mulling-tiktok-ban-indias-digital-strike-to-hurt-more-than-what-china-expected/videoshow/76838104.cms

India’s Pangong Pickle: New Delhi’s Options After Its Clash with China by Christopher Clary and Vipin Narang

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/pakistani-troop-movement-in-ladakh-sources-say-china-in-talks-with-pak-terror-groups-1695712-2020-07-01

From India’s Himalayan Border to Our Local Cell Networks, It’s Time to Push Back Against China

INDIA:
India’s Submarines Make Strategic Move to Dominate Indian Ocean
By H I Sutton, Forbes: “The most visible aspect of India’s programs are new nuclear-powered submarines that are being built, but beneath the surface there are other strategic steps to help ensure its Navy’s dominance of the Indian Ocean."

China’s Strategic Assessment of the Ladakh Clash by Yun Sun
Revelations about Russia’s Nuclear Deterrence Policy by Cynthia Robert

Here's a brief history of the disputed border, from the Times

Don't Believe the China Hype // Michael Schuman, The Atlantic: When it comes to assessing Chinese power, things aren't always as they seem.

Al jazeera BBC CNN

China’s Skirmish With India Is Only Its Latest Aggression During the Pandemic
Thomas Joscelyn — The Dispatch
China and India have quarreled over their border for nearly six decades. But Monday was the deadliest day in their dispute since 1975. At least 20 Indian soldiers were killed when a skirmish broke out in the Galwan river valley in the remote Ladakh region of the Himalayas. Tensions had been mounting for weeks, with President Trump offering to mediate the dispute in late May. (Neither side took him up on the offer.) The Indian government previously warned that the People’s Republic of China (PRC), ruled by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), has sent thousands of troops into the area since the beginning of the year. Naturally, the CCP accuses India of being the provocateur. Read More

James Stavridis writes: The U.S. has limited capital to engage in this particular dispute. Although President Donald Trump offered to mediate in a recent tweet, the chances of China accepting such assistance are negligible. A better approach is for the U.S. to continue moving closer to India, making it clear to Beijing that it will not allow New Delhi to be pressured out of greater alignment with Washington. – Bloomberg
​
Arif Rafiq writes: Indian officials often speak of a two-front war with China and Pakistan. […]China’s ingresses along the LAC provide an opportunity for both India and the United States to assess the second-order effects of their policies in South Asia. That reassessment must begin with Kashmir. – The National Interest 

Aparna Pande writes: The crisis unleashed by the coronavirus pandemic will almost definitely create a new global order, and India could emerge stronger. But for that, Indians will have to shed the complacency that comes from believing that the nation’s long history makes its rise inevitable.[…] To appeal to neighbours, counter rivals, and bolster alliances, India needs to be economically strong with a rising GDP and a skilled labour force, while welcoming foreign investment and less government regulations. – Hudson Institute

Is courting India a waste of time?
Derek Scissors | AEIdeas

The wisest course for managing international agreements is ruthless pragmatism, a tonic antidote to the empty internationalism that sustained Open Skies.  Learn more here.

A flare-up in a long-running border dispute between China and India has raised the temperature in their bilateral relationship. Yet it may be just as significant for the trilateral US-China-India relationship, points out Hal Brands in a Bloomberg op-ed. As the US-China rivalry goes global, India may be the only nonaligned country that can make a major difference in the balance of influence and advantage. The good news is that India and the US have a great deal to gain if they can hold the line against China — and much to lose if they cannot. Continue here.

Last month saw several face-offs between the Indian Army and China’s People’s Liberation Army along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), their long-disputed shared border, high in the Himalayas. While the entanglement in North Sikkim was resolved locally, within the framework of mutually agreed-upon protocols, the ones in Eastern Ladakh have lingered, giving rise to speculation about China’s intentions. – CNN ​

Archana Chaudhary writes: India must be careful how far it pushes. The government changed rules to allow hydroxychloroquine exports to the U.S. at Trump’s request last month, yet two-thirds of India’s bulk drugs and drug intermediates come from China. There are similar levels of dependency from electronics to auto parts. Chinese investments of more than $8 billion have been made in India, mostly in finance and technology startups. – Bloomberg

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/27/china-and-india-move-troops-as-border-tensions-escalate
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/us-ready-to-mediate-india-china-border-stand-off-trump/articleshow/76036991.cm

Fang-Yu Chen, Austin Wang, Charles K.S. Wu and Yao-Yuan Yeh write: Thus, it is incorrect to describe Tsai as either pro-status quo or pro-independence. Some scholars argue that Tsai’s pro-sovereignty mindset and policies, which have been seen as a direction of seeking independence by China, should be described as a form of “anti-annexation.” This is by far the best and most accurate approach to describe Tsai’s stance on cross-Strait relations. – The National Interest

Seth Cropsey writes: Since learning the danger of allowing powerful U.S. and allied forces to gather and strike from nearby waters and land in the two Gulf Wars, our potential foes continue to adapt using cyber, space, grey zone tactics, lawfare and compromised 5G technology, a widening spectrum that leads to an unlimited expansion of the battlefield. To assure its dominance, the U.S. must lead in all. The technological means to do so in grey zone tactics, particularly in ISRT, is one category where our advantage is established. We should use it to the hilt. – The HIll

Libya is Now the Middle East's Most Important Proxy War  by Seth Frantzman
The Spectator
May 20, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/60969/libya-is-now-middle-easts-most-important-proxy-wa

Report: Child soldiers deployed to Libya by Turkish-backed Syrian National Army
 An exclusive report, citing sources on the ground in Syria and Libya, says Syrian teenagers are being sent to Libya to take part in the civil war there.

Putin is Betting on a Losing Horse (As In Iran)
By Alireza Nader, The National Interest: "The Russian-Iranian alliance, a defining feature of power politics in the Middle East, is experiencing strains that should be exploited by the Trump administration."

U.S., ASIA:
Will Vietnam Lease Cam Ranh Bay to the U.S.?
By Carl Thayer, The Diplomat: "Rumors are circulating that Vietnam is considering leasing Cam Ranh Bay or some of its islands in the South China Sea to the United States on a long-term basis as a supply base and/or stop over point as a counter to recent aggressiveness in the South China Sea."​

Trump Should Not Fall for Erdogan’s S-400 Gambit
By Aykan Erdemir & Luc Sasseville, War on the Rocks: "On April 20, Turkey made public its decision to postpone the planned April activation of the S-400 air defense system it received from Russia last July, citing delays related to the COVID-19 outbreak. Erdogan’s latest move results from his growing desperation to secure Western financing amid a pandemic-induced economic crisis, and is part of a broader charm offensive to convince Trump to grant Ankara a financial lifeline in the form of a swap deal with the U.S. Federal Reserve."

An internal report presented by China's Ministry of State Security warned that global anti-China sentiment is at its highest since the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown.
 
The more we learn about the origins of the coronavirus, the more compelling the case against China grows. In an op-ed for the Hoover Institution, John Yoo and Robert J. Delahunty argue the world must create incentives for China that will force it to improve its behavior. That may well demand harsh measures that will force China to experience the full costs of its recklessness, but without such incentives, China may inflict this kind of tragedy on the world again. Read it here.

It’s time to be more strategic about trade with China. In an American Interest op-ed, Gary Schmitt and Craig Kennedy argue that although China is indeed a bad actor, it is also a global economic power from whom we cannot simply file for divorce. That said, Washington should develop a mechanism for ensuring that the US is not dependent on strategic goods “made in China.” What is needed is a Committee on Foreign Imports to the United States (CFIUS) — a CFIUS 2.0 Continue here.

A Lowy Institute scholar recently argued that lifting sanctions on Iran could both ease tensions in the Middle East and win favor among Iranians. But he is wrong on both counts, argues Michael Rubin in an op-ed for The Australian. The greatest reason sanctions relief does not help Iranians is Khatam al-Anbiya, the economic wing of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that controls almost 40 percent of Iran’s economy. Simply put, Iran has ample resources to better the lives of its citizenry. To lift sanctions, however, would incentivize not only Iran but also every other dictatorship to point a gun at the heads of their citizenry and demand cash from the West. Continue here.

A political battle is raging in Iraq over the selection of a new prime minister. In a RealClearWorld op-ed, Kenneth Pollack assesses the appointment of Mustafa al-Kadhimi, an Iraqi nationalist selected with the task of forming a government, and concludes that if there were ever a moment to build a strong independent Iraq, the time is now. Mustafa Kadhimi may be the last, best hope to begin moving Iraq in a better direction. Shouldn’t we help him help us? Read here.

After having lied about Turkey’s immunity to the coronavirus crisis in its initial weeks, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his advisers now seek to deflect blame and attention elsewhere. While some US diplomats have drunk Erdoğan’s Kool-Aid, Erdoğan’s decision to respond to the crisis by furthering his crackdown shows that the problem is the Turkish leader, not us, argues Michael Rubin in a Washington Examiner op-ed. The US government should take no action that endorses, embraces, or enables Erdoğan’s continued leadership in Turkey. Read more here.

Iran's Satraps in Lebanon Face Crisis by Jonathan Spyer
The Jerusalem Post
April 30, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/60811/lebanons-iranian-implanted-deep-state-out-of-options

Hereditary dictatorships rarely last past three generations, writes Oriana Skylar Mastro, and collapse may be in the cards for North Korea.
READ MORE

China has no reason to make a deal on nuclear weapons  
Hal Brands | Bloomberg Opinion

Intel: US Syria envoy says Turkey must put pressure on Idlib militants
Turkey should keep up the pressure on the hard-line Islamist group in control of Syria’s embattled Idlib province, the US special envoy for Syria said today.

​Extremist Syrian rebel group tests Turkey's limits in Idlib
Jihadi forces resisting the reopening of the key M4 highway in Idlib are squeezed between Turkey’s amity and military might, but Turkey itself is not without dilemmas.

Intel: US doubles down on Turkey S-400 sanctions threats
 The Donald Trump administration has doubled down on threats to sanction Turkey should it activate the Russian S-400 missile defense system.

Facing the probability that Russia and China are set to sell conventional arms to Iran this October, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is preparing a legal argument to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to extend the arms embargo stipulated in UN Resolution 2231. While President Donald Trump withdrew from the political aspect of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the US remains a legal participant in the latter resolution. However, the Trump administration’s approach prioritizes short-term gains and sacrifices long-term returns in the US’s ability to work in the UNSC. AEI’s Gary Schmitt argues that extending the arms embargo on Iran is a case of high-stakes poker. The bet here is that our European allies will reluctantly fold in favor of an extension, fearing Secretary Pompeo will go “all in” with a snapback of sanctions.

Since the US unilaterally pulled out of the JCPOA in 2018, Iran has violated the deal’s restrictions: increasing its stockpile of enriched uranium, putting it in reach of producing a nuclear weapon; using aid money to finance proxy-terror operations in Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen; and continuing funding for a Revolutionary Guards–dominated economy that fuels corruption and oppression of Iranians. Last week, Iran launched its first military satellite into orbit, marking a military program that foreshadows its development of intercontinental ballistic missiles. The October deadline will be a fight with great implications, but how much influence is the US able to wield? Can Iran really afford to spend lavishly on weapons while still calling for relief funds to weather the pandemic?

Hal Brands argues that as US-China tensions rise, the cuts to defense spending put American defense strategy at risk. A policy of confrontation can invite disaster if undertaken without an adequate military shield. It would be ironic if the coronavirus was what finally convinced many Americans to take the challenge from China seriously — but left the nation too weak to do much about it. Read more here.

Pakistanis may soon die en masse for China’s interests, and the Pakistani government may allow it to happen. At issue is the nature of how Pakistan’s leaders have shifted their alliance partners from the United States to China. Michael Rubin took to The National Interest to argue that Pakistanis will quickly realize what a devil’s bargain their country has made. Pakistanis may recognize that China seeks not a partner, but a colonial vassal, the deaths of whose citizens it sees as wholly irrelevant. Read it here.

The Challenge of Boko Haram Defectors in Chad by Bulama Bukarti

Salafi-jihadi ecosystem in the Sahel
Katherine Zimmerman | American Enterprise Institute

Interactive graphic: Salafi-jihadi ecosystem in the Sahel
Katherine Zimmerman | American Enterprise Institute

Mozambique Is Emerging As The Next Islamic Extremist Hotspot // Patrick Tucker: A terror group affiliated with the Islamic State has been stepping up tactics and claiming bigger targets.

Secretary of Defense Mark Esper has been considering drawing down US military commitments in Africa as the Pentagon rebalances toward competing more directly with Russia and China. The coronavirus pandemic and effect on Africa has delayed the expected decision over whether to cut troop numbers, close a new drone base in Niger, and end support to the French in the Sahel.

In a recent AEI report, Katherine Zimmerman assesses Salafi-jihadi groups in West Africa’s Sahel region and concludes that groups such as al Qaeda and the Islamic State are strengthening rapidly.

Al Qaeda– and Islamic State–linked groups have expanded from an initial insurgency in northern Mali to neighboring Burkina Faso and Niger, and they continue to grow stronger despite the array of security forces aligned against them. The threat is often forgotten in US policy circles until attacks occur like the one in Niger that killed four US servicemen in October 2017.

​Reducing US operations and the support the US provides to French and other forces in Africa would weaken the ability of US diplomats and aid workers who rely on the security US forces provide to operate, open space for global competitors, and increase instability in the region. Does the US have the adequate military strength to manage a rising China while still dealing with terrorist threats? 

AFRICA FILE: COMMON THREADS IN MALI, LIBYA, AND MOZAMBIQUE
 
READ THE LATEST EDITION HERE
 
Three failing African states took dramatic turns in the past two weeks—one toward uncertain progress and two even further from stability. The trajectories of Mali, Mozambique, and Libya will shape the African Salafi-jihadi movement and will interact with other negative trends—including destabilizing geopolitical competition—to fuel conflicts with regional and extra-regional implications.

Mali, Libya, and Mozambique demonstrate to different degrees the intersection among state fragility, geopolitical competition, and the Salafi-jihadi threat. Mali and Mozambique risk becoming hosts to disruptive rivalries like those that have prolonged and deepened Libya’s war. Collapsing governance across all three countries will help the Salafi-jihadi movement establish enduring havens that will strengthen the movement globally.

Read the full brief here. 
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"Vicious cycles: How disruptive states and extremist movements fill power vacuums and fuel each other," Emily Estelle, August 2020.