War Has Consequences: 20-Year Scars of The Second Intifada

Shaping the future of the world

Explainer: How Sadr's Shiite rivals became largest bloc in Iraq's parliament
General strike in Tunisia prompts warnings of imminent social tension

Ultranationalist lawmaker's popularity soars among Israeli ultra-Orthodox
The ultra-Orthodox parties are more concerned about ultranationalist lawmaker Itamar Ben Gvir, who appears to enjoy growing popularity among their voters, than anti-clerical politicians like Foreign Minister Yair Lapid and Finance Minister Avigdor Liberman.

​Putin: From Frank Sinatra to Leonid Brezhnev  by Amir Taheri 

Arab political party unprepared for new elections in Israel
 If new elections are called this week, the opposition Joint List will be hard pressed to convince its electorate it has its own agenda worth supporting.

No, the West Should Not Appease Erdogan

The Caravan Issue 2235: The End Of The American Era In The Gulf?

A Conservative Revolutionary
Brad Littlejohn | National Affairs
As conservatives today confront unhappy election results, along with rampant atheism and fanaticism in the halls of power, it's time they learned anew from John Jay's serene confidence and tireless labors to give a fractured nation a new lease on life.

Price Stability Is More Than Enough for the Fed—No New Mandates
Paul H. Kupiec | Hill
Assigning the Fed more mandates, especially ones as politically charged as combating climate change, implementing an “equity” agenda, and designing and issuing a new retail Federal Reserve digital dollar, would guarantee it fails on its primary task of achieving price stability with maximum employment.

Michael Rubin writes: His strategy has backfired. Iran has replenished its foreign reserves. Its hijacking of ships and hostage-taking have resumed. Its proxies struck ever deeper at critical infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and its nuclear program is at risk of a breakout. Iranian diplomats avoid meeting their American counterparts directly. At the most recent talks in Qatar, Iranian diplomats showed zero interest in reaching an agreement. – Washington Examiner

Bryan Clark writes: A naval force with greater adaptability, sustainability, and scalability would allow U.S. leaders to surprise Beijing and calibrate responses to Chinese hybrid or gray zone offensives. This would enable an approach to naval operations like that used by U.S. Cyber Command in its strategy of forward defense. By persistently engaging opposing operators and hackers inside their networks, U.S. cyber forces keep adversaries on the defensive, learn enemy tactics and capabilities, and create uncertainty for opposing leaders. – U.S. Naval Institute

THE FRIDAY TIMES, NAJAM SETHI

UK GUARDIAN, IMRAN KHAN

The Divided Kingdom?   by helen dale
Devolution's quasi-federalism may end up cracking the Union apart.
READ MORE ›

Russia's Tragic Failure to Reform Its Economy

Avoided the Fate of Russia's Military Contractors, So Far
China's approach to private security contractors is much more limited in scope and effects than Russia's use of private military contractors. But indicators suggest that Chinese planners see benefits in expanding and maturing China's use of private contractors, which creates the potential for dangerous results for China and the rest of the world. Read more »

Building Better Government Acquisition Programs: Q&A with William Shelton​
A "Time Capsule" From Mont Pelerin, 1947
​​

• WINEP’s Dennis Ross and Anna Borshchevskaya: Is it time to get tough with Russia?
  
• ISW's Frederick W. Kagan, Mason Clark, George Barros, and Kateryna Stepanenko: Putin's likely course of action in Ukraine: Updated course of action assessment
  

Seth J. Frantzman writes: Qatar plays a kind of double game, pretending that its interest is merely de-escalation, while also trying to be friends with all sides. […]The question for countries in the region and the US is whether Qatar’s double-game can also actually bring real results or if the talk of de-escalation is also a way to position Qatar as the key to every conflict so as to increase its power and profit. – Jerusalem Post  ​

Dustin Walker writes: For too long, the Pentagon has moved too slowly to achieve its ambitions of a distributed and resilient force posture in the Indo-Pacific, with dangerous consequences for American security. Urgent change at a significant scale is required, and that starts with the secretary of defense declaring, “I am Spike.” – War on the Rocks ​

Erdoğan's Neo-Ottoman Ambitions Turning Eastward  by Burak Bekdil

Turkey’s central bank continues window dressing with currency swaps
Hit by a foreign reserves drain, Turkey’s central bank eyes fresh currency swap deals, including with the central banks of Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Libya.
Read More  

Why Putin Has Not Been Deterred
by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness
Exasperated Americans fear Vladimir Putin is deterred neither by sanctions nor by arms sales but follows only his own sense of cost-to-benefit self-interest.

How Russian moves in Syria are linked to Moscow's Ukraine strategy
 Large-scale exercises in the Mediterranean are meant both to increase capabilities in Syria and to send a message to NATO.

Iranian Attacks in Iraq Reflect Weakness, Disarray  by Jonathan Spyer
The Jerusalem Post
January 20, 2022
https://www.meforum.org/62961/iranian-attacks-in-iraq-reflect-weakness-disarray

The Missing Component in US Counterterrorism Efforts in Africa
Michael Rubin | RealClearDefense

DRIVERS IN NEAR EAST FOR POST 2022  Read Outlook  
Autumn 2021 Issue

US Sanctions Bosnian Serb Leader Dodik.  The US Treasury Department imposed new targeted sanctions on Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik and other officials for acts of corruption and destabilization in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The department also sanctioned media outlet Alternativna Television for links to Dodik. Bosnian Serb leaders have been working to withdraw Serbian territories from state institutions, reviving concerns of possible Bosnian disintegration.  
Al Jazeera Politico Reuters

North Korea Says Hypersonic Missile Tested.  North Korea claims it successfully launched a hypersonic missile on Wednesday as part of its “strategic” military modernization efforts, according to state media. It is the North’s second known test-launch of a hypersonic missile, with its first occurring last September. The launch indicates Pyongyang will continue to focus on military development rather than return to stalled disarmament talks.  Associated Press Reuters Wall Street Journa

The new conquistadores  U.S. adversaries are becoming South American hegemons

The Case For Colonialism In The Middle East
by Bruce Gilley via The Caravan Notebook
Modern European colonialism in the Middle East took many forms and intensities, making impossible any generalizations about its effects. Therefore, the dominant anticolonial mindset that grips studies of the region is misplaced. Any case for colonialism in the Middle East rests on evidence from places that were creations of colonialism or where deterioration of the colonial legacy has been directly proportional to the degree of postcolonial catastrophe.

Why Is America Financing the Chinese War Machine

Gordon G. Chang writes: The Chinese military, from all indications, is now building a nuclear “war-fighting” capability, probably hoping to intimidate others into submission. […]There is no defense against hypersonic glide vehicles. Soon, China will be able to drop a nuke on America in the blink of an eye. Americans think strategic nuclear weapons are unusable. Chinese strategists obviously do not agree. – Newsweek ​

Succeeding Xi Jinping by Nan Li

China's Growing Maritime Empire

What to Expect When You’re Expecting a National Defense Strategy 
by Thomas Spoehr, Bradley Bowman, Bryan Clark, and Mackenzie Eaglen  

Algerian court sentences two ex-PMs 
An Algerian court on Monday handed down additional prison sentences for two former prime ministers charged in a major corruption case. Ahmed Ouyahia and Abdelmalek Sellal were sentenced to six and five years, respectively, for money laundering, wasting public money and abuse of office. In December 2019, a court sentenced Ouyahia to 15 years in prison and Sellal to 12 years on charges of corruption in financing the election campaign of late President Abdelaziz Bouteflika. Mass protests erupted in 2019 against Bouteflika’s bid for a fifth term, forcing him to resign. Despite his exit from politics, Algerians continued to demand the trial of figures linked to the former regime.  Read More  ​

ALGERIAN PRESIDENT DIES

To Deter China, Relearn The Lost Art of Dissuasion
Threats of denial or punishment will not deter a peer adversary fighting at home.

AUKUS: Good Goals, Bad Implementation
Now begins the real work for the United States and its democratic allies: cooperating to strengthen their eroding deterrence in the Indo-Pacific

Nagorno-Karabakh: A year of US failure in the South Caucasus
Michael Rubin | The National Interest

Treat Pakistan like China on military and sensitive exports
Michael Rubin | Washington Examiner

Going Back to the Future on Defense Acquisition
By Christine Fox & Sarah Stevenson , Proceedings: "The U.S. Navy’s submarine community was in near-crisis; its long superiority in acoustics detection fading."

China Tests Both Taiwan and the U.S.
By Seth Cropsey & Harry Halem, RealClearDefense: "PLA incursions into Taiwanese airspace should come as no surprise to observers of international events.  In 2020, PLA aircraft violated Taiwanese airspace 380 times on 91 separate days."

America Cannot Take On China and Russia Simultaneously
By David T. Pyne, The National Interest: “U.S. concerns about the risks of fighting a coming war with Russia and China are well-grounded, given it is unprepared to fight even a purely conventional war with them.” 

The Inevitability of Tragedy
By Mark Schell, Strategy Bridge: “Few public figures generated as much controversy in the last half of the 20th century as Kissinger, a man admired by some and reviled by others for his substantial role in shaping U.S. foreign policy."

Five Eyes wide shut
Zack Cooper | Korea on Point
Leaders in Washington and Seoul must be realistic that adding South Korea to the Five Eyes is ultimately unlikely. Instead, Seoul’s best opportunity for closer intelligence sharing is with its neighbors in East Asia, not the Five Eyes countries.
Full Story

Tunisians protest president’s expansion of power  
Thousands of Tunisians took to the streets on Sunday to protest the president’s recent power grab, calling on him to resign. Last week, President Kais Saied announced that he will rule by decree for two months, ignoring parts of the constitution. In July, Saied suspended parliament and ousted a number of Cabinet officials, including the prime minister, in response to sweeping protests against the government’s failure to address the coronavirus pandemic and mounting debt. Saied’s opponents have described these measures as a coup. The developments reflect the most serious political crisis in the North African country since the 2011 Arab Spring. 
Read More  ​

When Intentions Fall Short
Research Fellow Joe Felter characterizes US involvement in Afghanistan as two wars, writing, “One was by necessity: safeguarding America from transnational terrorist attacks. The other was a war of choice: bringing greater freedoms and opportunities to Afghanistan.” John Yoo, visiting fellow, argues that the second mission, the one of choice, was a failure because it “was based on the assumption that any political and cultural environment would be receptive to the attractions of liberal democracy, capitalism, and international human-rights law. . . . But nothing in the political culture or traditions of Afghanistan . . . was favorable to such a radical constitutional transformation.” He suggests that US elites should finally learn “that external force rarely succeeds in bringing about the constitutional transformation of a society so long as it remains culturally resistant.”

Senior Fellow Peter Berkowitz offers an alternative conclusion to the belief that “promoting democracy and freedom are beyond America’s capabilities [and] imposing destabilizing practices and institutions on local populations have no place in a responsible US foreign policy.” Berkowitz argues that to secure “the conditions conducive to freedom at home,” US foreign policy must be grounded in America’s needs and priorities. It must also recognize that promoting democracy and promoting freedom are separable and distinct achievements and, in many cases, severely limited. Additionally, the US must improve its understanding of other nations’ cultures as well as rededicating itself to the principles of freedom on which the United States is based. Listen to senior fellows H. R. McMaster and Victor Davis Hanson discuss the “lost war” on Uncommon Knowledge

​The Race for Tech Superiority
As China modernizes its nuclear arsenal and the US reviews its nuclear posture, America should not lose sight of the bigger race, explains Rose Gottemoeller, research fellow. “China may be a rising nuclear power, but its bigger agenda is building up its science and technology prowess.” She suggests that nuclear weapons should not be the primary focus of our efforts and money, but instead “the new and emerging technologies that are rapidly maturing into military assets. Innovations in artificial intelligence, big data analysis, quantum computing and quantum sensing and biotechnology are where future defense capacity is being born. The Chinese have sworn to beat us at acquiring and exploiting every one of them.” She calls for US government research funds to “push the frontiers of science and innovation.” For more about risks being posed by collaborative research with authoritarian nations, see the China Global Sharp Power’s (CGSP) essay “Global Engagement: Rethinking Risk in the Research Enterprise.”

 Turkey: NATO's Pro-Russian, Taliban-Friendly Ally  by Burak Bekdil
The Gatestone Institute
September 24, 2021
https://www.meforum.org/62683/turkey-natos-pro-russian-taliban-friendly-ally

From The Middle East To The Sahel And Throughout Africa: How Russia Pushes Western Powers Towards The Exit
by Isabelle Lasserre via The Caravan
Sub-Saharan Africa, the Sahel, the Middle East, Afghanistan. Like an octopus, Russia has extended its tentacles to every crisis riddled corner, filling the void created by the withdrawal of Western forces. Occasionally partnering with Turkey to better share the imperial burden, Vladimir Putin has once again inserted Moscow as a major player on the international scene. To what extent can it take the place of democratic powers?

• Iran’s secret cyber files
  
• Influential voices in Egypt, Saudi Arabia and UAE celebrate Tunisia turmoil as blow to political Islam
  
• WINEP’s Sarah Feuer: Political crisis in Tunisia: U.S. response Options
  

• China appears to be building new silos for nuclear missiles, researchers say
  
  
• Heritage Foundation’s Peter Brookes and Walker Venable: 5 things that should be on agenda for US-Russia strategic stability dialogue
  
  ​Russian aircraft manufacturer Sukhoi showed off its new Checkmate jet during the MAKS 2021 aviation show last week, presenting it as a fifth-generation fighter. – Defense News 
  

The U.S. decision to withdraw from Afghanistan by September 2021 is provoking a victorious narrative among Salafi-jihadi clerics and some Shi’ite militants in Iraq as both groups exploit the withdrawal not only to motivate fighters to never abandon jihad or, in the case of the Shi’ite militias, to continue targeting the U.S. interests in the region, but also to discredit rival groups. – Middle East Media Research Institute  ​

Now Is the Time to Engage Al-Shabaab. Religious Leaders and Clan Elders Can Help. 

The Sahelian Matrix Of Political Violence
by Heni Nsaibia, Clionadh Raleigh via The Caravan
The Sahel is one of the most active conflict theatres on the African continent and has become a major node in the "Global War on Terror'' over the past twenty years. After nearly a decade of foreign military intervention through overlapping counterterrorism, stabilization, and military and security training missions, the conflict is often referred to as a ''Forever War'' alongside other Western-led military interventions in the Middle East and Africa. As military campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan draw to a close, attention is increasingly shifting to Africa as the next battlefront— where the Sahel remains a key geopolitical dilemma.

Islamic State kills hundreds in massacres across the Sahel

Biden's Emerging Foreign Policy  L'Informale
February 19, 2021
http://www.danielpipes.org/20253/biden-emerging-foreign-policy

• Somalia. Security is deteriorating in Somalia’s capital as the country faces a constitutional crisis. Al Shabaab is waging media and attack campaigns intended to capitalize on Somalis’ anti-government grievances.
• Kenya. Al Shabaab is exerting increasing social control in parts of northeastern Kenya.
• Ethiopia. The Tigray conflict in northern Ethiopia is escalating as regional forces challenge the federal government for control of the Tigray region’s capital. Tensions over contested territory are rising between Ethiopia and Sudan.
• Sahel. Al Qaeda’s Sahel branch is expanding its networks in coastal West African countries. The group is also pressuring counterterrorism forces in Mali through attacks and propaganda while increasing its influence over civilian populations in central Mali.
• Libya. Foreign militaries are becoming increasingly entrenched in Libya and remain likely spoilers to an enduring political resolution, despite short-term progress.

READ THE LATEST EDITION HERE

China, unquarantined
The coronavirus pandemic underscores the catastrophic consequences of setting the Chinese Communist Party loose in the liberal international order — but many other unfamiliar new threats also lie in store, explain Dan Blumenthal and Nicholas Eberstadt.

Russia seeks to outplay the US in Libya
While Russia's preferred candidates lost in last week's vote for interim leadership in Libya, Moscow still has a strategy for reinforcing its influence in the country.
 
Turkey’s risk grade far from safe
Turkey’s risk premium has sharply decreased over the past several months, but an array of economic and political factors threatens to undo the trend.

What’s next for Turkey in Libya after election of new interim leaders?
 Universal goodwill messages to Libya’s new interim leadership indicate how complex the Libyan file has become for all foreign actors in the country ahead of potentially clamorous elections in December.

BIDEN'S DOD ON CHINA:  here.  readout of the phone call. 

Pentagon Launches China Policy Review.  President Biden launched a Department of Defense task force to evaluate the United States-China rivalry and produce comprehensive China policy recommendations in the next four months.  Al Jazeera Axios South China Morning Post  ​

Joe Biden should reverse Trump’s decision on Somalia
Katherine Zimmerman | Critical Threats Project
The new Joe Biden administration should reverse the Donald Trump administration’s shortsighted 11th-hour decision to withdraw from Somalia to stave off a worst-case possibility.

Saudis Expanding US Military Access to Airfields, Port, to Counter Iran // Katie Bo Williams: The year-old initiative is intended to give CENTCOM "more options" in a fight, general reveals.

The Forgotten People Fighting the Forever War // Jessica Donati, The Atlantic: A devastating incident in Afghanistan shows the perils of relying on Special Operations alone to fight the nation's battles.

Nuclear Extortion: Mullahs Want More Concessions from Biden
by Majid Rafizadeh 

The Pernicious Effects of Popular Nuclear Mythology
by Stephen Blank and Peter Huessy 

US War Surge Production Too Slow, CSIS Finds
The United States could not make enough military equipment fast enough to sustain its military in the event of a major war. While much thought has been given to how a great power conflict might erupt or play out, far less has been written on how the U.S. industrial base could sustain U.S. wartime equipment…

‘Made In USA’ Won’t Secure Supply Chain Vs. China: Solarium
Rather than try to mine strategic minerals, build key technologies, and develop high-tech talent entirely on its own, the US should work together with trusted allies like Australia, the Cyberspace Solarium Commission and other experts argue.

Johnson's Days Look Numbered Unless He Can End Lockdowns
By STEPHEN MacLEAN, Special to the Sun | January 18, 2021
https://www.nysun.com/foreign/johnsons-days-looking-numbered-unless-hes-able/91394/

Turkey Continues to Honor Its Racists
By Dr. Efrat Aviv, January 26, 2021
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The true danger facing modern Turkey is not religious extremism but ultra-nationalism. While other nations tear down their monuments to racists, Turkey continues to honor its own.
Continue to full article ->

Israel Is Facing a Domestic Existential Threat
By Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen, January 12, 2021
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The Israeli government is living in denial about the growing violent anarchy in the Negev, the Galilee, and in certain cities. Putting a stop to this phenomenon, which is developing into an existential threat, requires an all-out effort to enhance the power of the military and the police alongside appropriate preparations by the State Attorney’s Office and the legal system to restore sovereignty and governance.
Continue to full article ->

Debating Yad Vashem
January 18, 2021
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The recent attempt by PM Netanyahu to appoint former IDF general and cabinet minister Effi Eitam as chairman of the Yad Vashem Holocaust Remembrance Center has stirred a heated public debate about the Center’s depiction of the Holocaust in recent years and its implications.
Two BESA associates have joined the debate.
Continue to full article ->

Al Qaeda in Iran–and Afghanistan

Israel’s Air Force attacks warehouses used to ‘store and stage Iranian weapons’ in Syria

Why Hasn't Anyone Attacked Iran's Nuclear Sites

Can Nigel Farage Reform the Tories After Brexit?
By STEPHEN MacLEAN, Special to the Sun | January 11, 2021
https://www.nysun.com/foreign/can-nigel-farage-reform-the-tories-after-brexit/91389/

Intra-Party Feud Of the Democrats Is the Key Battle
By IRA STOLL, Special to the Sun | January 11, 2021
https://www.nysun.com/national/in-divided-america-the-rift-to-watch-is-among/91388/

Our So-Called Foreign Policy: Trumply Deranged Coverage of a Trump Security Policy Win

Israel's Supreme Court Vindicates MEF News from the Middle East Forum
https://www.meforum.org/61924/israel-supreme-court-vindicates-mef

 Sunk Costs In Iraq And Afghanistan
by David R. Henderson via EconLog
Will Joe Biden have the guts and/or the sense to recognize sunk costs?
 
The Big Lesson Of 2020: Government Failure
by David R. Henderson via EconLog
The year 2020 gave us a huge amount of evidence about the relative merits of government intervention and free markets. The bottom line is that government failed massively and free markets triumphed spectacularly (with one major exception) within the constraints that government placed on them. The one apparent exception to government failure is Operation Warp Speed but, as we shall see, that apparent exception may not be an exception at all.

Experts note that if the US is serious about refocusing on great-power competition with China and Russia and away from the Middle East, then withholding high-end reinforcements from the Persian Gulf is the hard call American leaders need to make. This argument is dangerous, argues Fred Kagan in a Hill op-ed. The US cannot allow its policy on China and Russia to starve the Middle East of essential military resources amid a crisis. As long as the US has a diplomatic presence in the region, the US must continue to deter escalation and prepare to protect its people. Learn more here.

US-China competition may not be a “superpower marathon,” but a decade-long sprint. In an AEI report, Michael Beckley and Hal Brands argue that the US will need a “danger zone” strategy geared toward preventing China from achieving major gains that could alter the long-term balance of power with respect to technology and Taiwan. Washington must harden its base infrastructure in Asia, help Taiwan fight asymmetrically, take part in long-term endeavors to reform the World Trade Organization, and reinvest in the domestic foundations of American innovation. 
Read the full report here.

Has the Chinese century begun, or is trouble brewing on the horizon? In a new AEI video, Michael Beckley dives into the hard numbers to reveal China's challenges in the decades ahead. He concludes that as China’s economic growth slows, it will continue to crack down on domestic dissent and deter foreign rivals from exploiting their financial woes. The United States must firmly but patiently contain China with a careful blend of deterrence, reassurance, and damage limitation. Watch the video here.

If Beijing poses such a clear global threat, then why has Washington struggled to build a coalition to counter its rise? In a Foreign Policy op-ed, Zack Cooper and Hal Brands debunk the belief that a single alliance will emerge to counter China. Instead, the US must forge a geostrategic coalition of countries in the Indo-Pacific, an economic alliance, a technological alliance, and a governance coalition. Unless the US adopts a more sophisticated approach to coalition building, it will be stuck trying to re-create a world that no longer exists. Continue here.

Joe Biden will rediscover Russia when he assumes the presidency. In a Dispatch op-ed, Leon Aron notes that Biden should beware of the pull to befriend or even change Russia. Attempting to change countries’ behavior from the outside usually fails. However, the US doesn’t have to wait for a regime change to moderate hostile policies. Joe Biden’s first priority in his discovery of Russia should be readying credible, quick, and robust responses.  Learn more here.

Europe is divided by two different views on the threat Russia poses. In Sweden, increased preparedness for its aggression has produced larger defense budgets. In contrast, Germany and much of Western Europe seem far less concerned over such a “hard power” threat from Russia, explain Gary Schmitt and Craig Kennedy in a Hill op-ed. The new Joe Biden administration, with its clear desire to rebuild transatlantic ties, will look to Germany as the keystone to those efforts. Berlin could do well to look to Stockholm for an idea over what Washington could ask of its partners in Europe.  Read here.

No easy reset for US relations with Germany

The Faultline Between Futurists and Traditionalists in National Security 
by John Speed Meyers, David Jackson

Something Old, Something New 
by Francis J. Gavin

Why Israel's Massive Radar Deal With Slovakia Matters by Seth J. Frantzman
The National Interest
January 14, 2021
https://www.meforum.org/61940/israels-massive-radar-deal-with-slovakia

Rwanda and the African Union: The Promise of Increased US-Africa Engagement
Featuring H. R. McMaster and Paul Kagame via BattlegroundsAfrican nations’ efforts to expand economic prosperity and defeat jihadist extremism underline the continent’s need for strong and stable governance, argues Rwandan president Paul Kagame in the latest episode of Battlegrounds, Hoover’s foreign policy video series hosted by Fouad and Michelle Ajami Senior Fellow H. R. McMaster.

Unresolved Border Dispute Escalates Tensions. Tensions between Ethiopia and Sudan continue to escalate following an ambush and military movements along the contested al-Fashaga frontier. Al-Jazeera 
 
Mogadishu Siege Ends. Somali security forces ended yesterday’s hotel siege by al-Shabab militants. Five civilians were killed, including a former Somali Army general, along with four militants.  Associated Press  Al-Jazeera
 
Tigray Situation Continues to Deteriorate. Despite the capture or killing of significant TPLF leaders, fighting continues in Ethiopia’s Tigray region. Refugees have been caught in battles between government forces and rebel militants. Sudan, currently preoccupied with its own border dispute with Ethiopia, could be key to sustaining or inhibiting the TPLF’s cause. 
Al-Jazeera BBC ​

AEI & TERROR & THE SAHEL:  READ THE LATEST EDITION HERE
Vicious cycles: How disruptive states and extremist movements fill power vacuums and fuel each other 

​Russia crowds out Turkey in post-war Caucasus
Having brokered a cease-fire deal between Azerbaijan and Armenia, Vladimir Putin is now giving priority to the development of transport links in the conflict-ridden region.

Ethiopia’s worsening crisis threatens regional, Mideast security
With the Horn of Africa increasingly becoming an integral part of the Middle East’s security landscape, the fallout from Ethiopia's current crisis will have a significant impact on states of the region.

Nile dam talks hit yet another snarl
 The latest round of talks between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia over the controversial Nile River dam again collapsed amid Sudanese objections and calls for African Union experts to take on a greater role in resolving the dispute.

What can Turkey expect from Qatari-Gulf deal?
 Turkey feels vindicated as al-Ula Declaration ends the blockade against Qatar.

​Egypt seeks to bypass Turkish presence in Senegal
 In an attempt to counter Turkey’s expansion in West Africa, Egypt and the UAE seek to consolidate their ties with Senegal, the gateway to West Africa, by pushing forward new investments in the African country.