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NORTH AMERICA 

ETHIOPIA:  SOURCE OF NILE & GEOPOLITICAL FRICTION IN EAST AFRICA; ISRAELI CONSTITUTIONAL CRISIS EMERGES

9/12/2023

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https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2023/09/10/steadying_israel_by_recalibrating_the_separation_of_powers_149735.html
steadying_israel_by_recalibrating_the_separation_of_powers___realclearpolitics.pdf
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NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST & LIFE AFTER MAO'S RED GUARDS

9/6/2023

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THE COUP MASTERS OF FRANCOPHILE WEST AFRICA & LIMITS OF A COMMAND ECONOMY

9/6/2023

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A PROBLEM CALLED SAUDI ARABIA; putin moves on wagner group leadership

8/23/2023

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The Failure of the China Economics Field
Seth Cropsey writes: Alliance management is an unending task, requiring all parties to have a consistent self-image.  Saudi Arabia lacks that, making it an unfit balancing partner. Washington has a self-image, but one that is dominated by clichés about rebalancing and dubious uses of historical analogy. A new Middle East may be possible, but this is not the way. Sober considerations of the national interest, not quick fixes, must guide American and Israeli policy. The best choice, for Israel and for the U.S., is to wait until Saudi Arabia possesses a coherent identity and then see if it can be incorporated into an entente. – The Hill
Wagner chief Prigozhin among passengers in fatal plane crash: Russian state media

The end of this phase of the Prigozhin story. With Wagner sources hinting the plane was shot down a new phase might begin. pic.twitter.com/cDJrcmxys2

— Carl Bildt (@carlbildt) August 23, 2023
Fawzi al-Zubaidi writes: These steps constitute a road map to restore Iraq as a normal state in the eyes of the international community. If Sudani succeeds in implementing these steps by handling them as a single package of “indivisible” measures and policies, Iraq could make a quantum leap in its modern history, accelerating the rebuilding and development of the entire country. However, Iraq’s failure to implement these obligations and steps will open the door to chaos, conflict, and further division. – Washington Institute
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Hamdi Malik and Michael Knights write: Signs of real tension between HaN (including its offshoots AK and the Iraqi Basij) and other muqawama and Coordination Framework actors require ongoing, detailed monitoring. New efforts by the Iraqi Basij to hold protests or other events in the two main shrine cities would indicate continued defiance; the same message might be conveyed if AK aggressively regrows its Telegram channel (probably via paid bots). It will also be interesting to see whether AK and the Iraqi Basij try to damage AAH electoral campaigns in the leadup to this December’s provincial elections. – Washington Institute
China’s crude oil imports from top exporter Saudi Arabia are expected to remain depressed through the third quarter, analysts said, after its customs office reported inbound shipments from the kingdom fell to their lowest in 13 months in July. – Reuters

Addiction to captagon, an amphetamine-type pill nicknamed the “poor man’s cocaine,” has been a serious problem in Gulf Arab states — especially among Saudi Arabia’s youth, with one Saudi commentator speaking recently of a “devastating amount of poison” being brought to the kingdom. – Bloomberg

Ethan Bronner writes: A deal is being negotiated that, if completed, would result in Saudi Arabia, for the first time, establishing warm relations with Israel. The main thing the Saudis would get in exchange — security guarantees — wouldn’t come from Israel but from its closest ally — the US. Israel, a high-tech power, would play a major role in ambitious Saudi plans to move its economy beyond oil. It would also be expected to make concessions to the Palestinian self-ruling authority in the West Bank. The US would regain some of its influence over Saudi Arabia, stemming efforts by China to expand its sway in the Middle East. The deal offers significant rewards to all four governments, not least of them additional ways of dealing with Iranian military activity in the region. But the prospect of the pact stirs populist forces among all of their constituencies, posing risks to those in power. – Bloomberg
Russia’s and China’s Economic Eclipse Proves the US System Is Still the Best
Desmond Lachman | New York Post
We should be grateful that despite all its imperfections, the United States’ democratic and free-market economic system allows it to continue being the high-tech innovative envy of the world and offering its citizens a continually rising standard of living.

Full Story
Global Jihad: Al Qaeda and the Islamic State’s Struggle for Power and Global Dominance
Katherine Zimmerman | Routledge
Revealing A Better Way Of Solving The World's Problems | Bjorn Lomborg
interview with Bjorn Lomborg via The Rubin Report
​
Hoover Institution fellow Bjorn Lomborg talks about efficient solutions for global problems; the need to prioritize spending on the most effective solutions to address issues such as climate change, poverty, education, and health care; and several cost-effective solutions.
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BIDEN PAYS IRAN; KING BIBI PUNTS ON EVER GROWING ISRAELI CRISIS;

8/15/2023

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The controversy surrounding recent judicial reforms reflects deep and longstanding divisions on the role courts in Israeli society.
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Averting Constitutional Crisis In Israel
Dealer Capacity And US Treasury Market Functionality
China’s Dangerous Secrets
By Brahma Chellaney, The Strategist (ASPI): “It’s well known that China has the world’s largest navy and coastguard—the result of a tenfold increase in military spending since 1995—which it uses to advance its pugnacious revisionism."

Beyond Defense:
China’s Pursuit of Unorthodox Force Multipliers

By Ron Matthews & Fitriani Bintang Timur, The Diplomat: “From animal mimicry to neuroscience, there is a hidden arms race underway in areas beyond “defense,” as traditionally understood.”
Five Reasons Software Is Eclipsing Hardware In Pentagon Technology Plans
India Is Becoming a Power in Southeast Asia
How to Reverse the Erosion of U.S. and Allied Military Power and Influence
U.S. to Provide Iran Access to $16 Billion in Frozen Funds
Preparing for Great-Power Conflict
The U.S. and Chinese militaries have each been shaped by a distinct set of experiences. How have these experiences affected the way both forces prepare for a potential major-power conflict? Read more »
John Gillory’s history of the English department suggests that the future of professional reading may lie elsewhere.
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The Fed Is Engaged in Monetary Policy Overkill
"Biden Establishes Review Process to Regulate China-Bound Investment in Key Industries,"
WINEP’s Michael Singh: Closing Washington’s China gap with Middle East partners
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HOW THE U.S. FALLS BEHIND CHINA:  NATIONAL SECURITY

8/10/2023

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10 Ways the US Is Falling Behind China in National Security
  • While the United States still enjoys advantages over China in many key fields of national security competition, recent trends illustrate that American military dominance is stagnating and China is rapidly catching up.

  • China is successfully leveraging asymmetric structural advantages, such as its authoritarian military-civil fusion and geographical position in the Indo-Pacific, to rapidly reach parity with or exceed the United States’ military capabilities.

  • Further complacency about these issues will only ensure that Chinese capabilities surpass those of the United States sooner than expected.
10-ways-the-us-is-falling-behind-china-in-national-security.pdf
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eaglen_china_one-pager.pdf
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China’s Real Military Budget Is Far Bigger Than It Looks
It’s Time to Retire the Term “Near Peer” When It Comes to China
The US Military Needs More Capital for Capital Assets

Air Force Developing New Architecture for JADC2 ‘Kill Chains’
7 Things the New Sergeant Major of the Army Can Do to Restore Trust in the Military
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EXHAUSTION OF MAJOR POWERS

7/22/2023

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China a growing port of call for African naval expansion
Sub-Saharan navies have made striking increases in patrol craft, with China increasingly featuring as a warship supplier.
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US–India defence and technology cooperation
A US decision to transfer jet-engine technology to India will bolster the United States’ Indo-Pacific strategy while also presenting an unprecedented test of the strength of US–India ties.
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China’s Last Economic Gasp?
Distinguishing Two Revolutions

Kori Schake critically examines ACCIDENTIAL WAR  the historical basis for theories ofaccidentalwar.”
Adam J. White surveys four key themes from the Court’s recent decisions and looks to the issues that will shape the Court’s future.
Return to Order: Organic Remedies and Upright Spontaneity
Hoover Institution and Asia Society Release Groundbreaking Report on Semiconductor Security
Washington's Four-Point Plan to Take Down the Syrian Narco-Trade
Natalie Ecanow and Matthew Zweig
 – Al Majalla
​Politics Risk Derailing One of America’s Most Important Strategic Agreements
Cleo Paskal 
– The Diplomat
Government by Reason—or by Passion? On Lincoln and democracy
/ Read here
Defanging Russian Nuclear Threats, by Kori Schake
North Korea’s Hwasong-18 test
North Korea’s second successful test of its solid-fuel Hwasong-18 ICBM takes Pyongyang a step closer to a key objective for its strategic arsenal.
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Erdoğan's Most Eminent Men: Turkey's New Spymasters
AFRICOM launches ‘self-defense’ airstrikes against Shabaab in Somalia
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AFRICA'S GREAT LAKES REGION CIVIL WAR & CENTCOM BOTH BLEED

7/7/2023

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CHINA READS WEAK BIDEN WHITE HOUSE

6/21/2023

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JIHADIS IN DESPAIR

6/9/2023

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NIGERIA DIVIDED; TORRIES DOWN;

5/24/2023

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China Planning Secret Spy Base in Cuba Targeting U.S.
​
Our Nation Should Focus on Readiness, Not Politics

Food Insecurity: Outlook for 2023  Read full article
DARPA’s Silent MHD Magnetic Drives for Replacing Naval Propellers
  • Taking War Seriously by Michael Miklaucic
  • Time To End DoD’s Earmark Dependence by Dan Savickas
Remembering the American Character at Wa
'Strategika' 
Pivot to Offense: How Iran Is Adapting for Modern Conflict and Warfare
Iran’s Reserve of Last Resort: Uncovering the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Ground Forces Order of Battle
Overcoming The Axis Of Tyranny
The United States: A Nation in Need Of A Leader
Strategika Issue 85: Alliances Hostile to American Interests
No Half-Measures on Higher-Ed Reform
A Centrist Strategy for Higher Education Reform
Who Won the Cold War? Part I
Nicholas Eberstadt | AEIdeas
The years since the Cold War ended have been extraordinary. Yet during this moment of unparalleled prosperity, Nicholas Eberstadt shows, that things quietly started going wrong for many Americans. The unease so many in the US feel today reflects that contradiction. Curiously, the most indispensable of the Cold War’s many victors, the American people, now suffer from a failure to thrive. Their social wellbeing has been faltering for some time. By 2021, estimated median wealth per adult was lower in the US than in most Western European NATO allies. Further, performance in wealth building has been decidedly weaker in the US than in most Cold War allies in Asia and Europe. Read Part I here. >>

Who Won the Cold War? Part II
Nicholas Eberstadt | AEIdeas
Nicholas Eberstadt looks at health trends in America since the end of the Cold War. Despite intervening economic progress and medical advance, mortality rates in America were no better for the men and women born in 1990 by the time they reached their late 20s than for their parents’ generation. For Americans born in 1990, death rates at age 20 are universally lower for US treaty allies’ populations than for Americans. Further, mortality curves for those in their 20s generally remained much flatter for these allies than for the US. Consequently, the divergence in mortality risks between the US and its allies tended to increase over young adulthood for Americans born in 1990, even before the COVID-19 pandemic. Read Part II here. >>

Who Won the Cold War? Part III
Nicholas Eberstadt | AEIdeas
Nicholas Eberstadt takes a broader look at adult health in the post–Cold War era. Some countries embroiled in the Cold War have enjoyed pronounced and incessant improvements in survival from the end of the World War II though the end of the Cold War and to the present day. In Japan, each successive cohort traces a survival trajectory more favorable than the cohort before it. Now compare this with the survival trends in adulthood for the USA. Instead of consistent space between successive cohorts’ mortality curves, there are plenty of tangles, with later cohorts suffering from higher death rates in adulthood than the Americans who came before them did. Read Part III here. >>
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THE CHALLENGES OF A CONSTITUTIONAL MONARCHY FOR THE 21ST CENTURY

5/17/2023

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WHY PAKISTAN SUFFERS; XI PULLS CHINA DOWN

5/16/2023

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ISRAEL, STILL SIMMERING; SUDAN EXPLODES AGAIN; XI'S IGNORANCE OF GRAY ZONE CONFLICTS

4/17/2023

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Libyan militia and Egypt’s military back opposite sides in Sudan conflict
Victor Davis Hanson: Mecca And The History Of Islamic Warfare
What Xi Doesn’t Know Might Hurt Him
Elisabeth Braw | Center for European Policy Analysis
According to the commander of the US Navy’s Office of Naval Intelligence, Xi Jinping isn’t aware of all the gray-zone operations his country conducts against its neighbors and rivals like the US.
Full Story
Israel Thwarts IRGC Quds Force Plot
​Sudan death toll nears 100 as civilians flee, power struggle continues
center on the timeline for integrating the RSF into the military
Halevi’s Horizon: What Awaits the New Israeli Defense Chief of Staff
Iran Escalates Targeting of Women Who Refuse to Wear Mandatory Hijab
U.S. Sanctions Turkish Entities for Aiding Russian War Effort
What the Palestinian Terrorist's Mother Told Him...by Stephen M. Flatow
Biden Is Emboldening China to Invade Taiwan  by Gordon G. Chang 
US warns of 'troubling escalation' in Tunisia after Ghannouchi arrest
Timeline: Kais Saied's crackdown in Tunisia, from suspending parliament to arresting Ghannouchi
Tunisia faces water cuts amid severe drought, public frustration
Agriculture, mining and industry offer clearest path for Algeria's economic diversification
 In a bid to diversify its economic revenue sources, Algeria has been attempting to raise domestic and foreign investment in non-energy sectors.
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PAKISTAN DITHERS. . . OMAN FIELDS FLOATING DESALINATION PLANT & THE MAN WHO KNEW LEE HARVEY OSWALD

4/14/2023

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We have only just begun to see the negative effects of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which was signed into law last August. Claude Barfield encourages Congress to take back its constitutional authority over the country’s international trade agenda 
In Support of a Democratic Turkey
A large-scale campaign against Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is unlikely to model previous Pakistani counterterrorism campaigns that helped contain the TTP between 2007 and 2014. 
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​Israel’s Netanyahu falls in polls, could abandon judicial overhaul
Oman activates first floating desalination plant 
Lone Gunman: The Man Who Knew Lee Harvey Oswald
Powering American Renewal with Innovation,
Technology, Defense, And American-Chinese Competition
Winning a Game of Nuclear Chicken in Asia Redux by Jeff Becker
China Won’t Back Down on Taiwan
How High Interest Rates Turn “Paper Losses” into Real Ones
 The Fed Should Heed the International Monetary Fund’s Credit-Crunch Warning Before Throwing Us into a Hard Economic Landing
Can the Treasury Selectively Default on the Fed’s Debt?
Paul H. Kupiec and Alex J. Pollock | Hill
Silicon Valley Bank’s Wake-Up Call for the Federal Reserve
Desmond Lachman | 19fortyfive.com
Is China Backing Off Iran?
Stress Testing American Grand Strategy II: Critical Assumptions and Great-Power Rivalry
"Biden Must Tell Erdogan To Stop Targeting US Partners," Sinan Ciddi, 1945
Turkey, Egypt say they will cooperate more closely on Libya
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ISRAEL SIMMERS; AFRICA'S CIVIL WAR IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION

4/13/2023

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Iran is pushing Israel toward a multi-theater conflagration
Netanyahu's caution on Temple Mount makes sense
A Muslim Arab's take on the Jerusalem tensions
Hezbollah-Hamas axis gives serious cause for concern
ISRAEL'S BALANCING ACT OF DETERRENCE CONTINUES
CAROLINE GLICK ON JUDICIAL REFORM
ISRAEL'S JUDICIAL REFORM BILL EXPLAINED
The case for a constitutional referendum
What's really happening in Israel?
ISRAEL'S SHADOW WAR CONTINUES
MELANIE PHILLIPS 
Terrorists Arrested as Iran-backed Militants Foment Chaos in West Bank
Frank Dikötter On China: Mao’s Tyranny To Rising Superpower
U.S. adds Al Qaeda leader in Syria to list of global terrorists
Lone Gunman: The Man Who Knew Lee Harvey Oswald
What Is Really Happening at Jerusalem's Holy Sites?  by Bassam Tawil 
​Israeli fears grow of united Hezbollah-Hamas-Iran front
"Terrorists Arrested as Iran-backed Militants Foment Chaos in West Bank,"
The Cost of Ending Counterterrorism
Katherine Zimmerman | Liberal Patriot
Could the Next 9/11 Originate in Turkey?
Michael Rubin | 19fortyfive.com
Former US diplomat Barry Rosen and VOA’s Masih Alinejad: U.S. approach to Iran has failed to stop regime from targeting Americans
Former US National Security Advisor John Bolton: A new American grand strategy to counter Russia and China
Ilan I. Berman writes: Against this backdrop it is increasingly clear that the Biden administration, through its single-minded pursuit of nuclear diplomacy with Iran, is courting disaster — either in the form of a region dominated by a nuclear Iran, or of a region destabilized by an Israeli military strike meant to ward off precisely that outcome. Washington needs to change course, before it’s too late. – American Foreign Policy Council
Ramón Díaz rescued liberal ideas from the obscurity into which they had fallen in Uruguay.
READ MORE ›
George Hawley shows how postwar American conservative thought has evolved into the right-wing discourse in today's age of identity politics.
READ MORE ›
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CONDITIONS FOR ANOTHER ARAB SPRING ARRIVE

3/22/2023

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The Role Of U.S. Diplomacy In Countering Russia’s Nuclear Threats And Misbehavior
by Rose Gottemoeller via Texas National Security Review
What’s in the Saudi Iranian Beijing Deal
How to Keep Antisemitism Away From Turtle Bay
As Ramadan arrives, inflation chokes Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia
 In North African nations, higher food costs will make it harder to access supplies for the festive month.
Russia's Wagner activities expanding in Libya despite growing Western scrutiny 
 The Wagner Group has sought to use Libya as a forward base for its activities in the Sahel region, particularly Chad and Niger, while building spheres of influence with local communities and smuggling networks in the southern border regions of Libya.
For Pakistan, many opportunities, questions in China's Iran-Saudi deal
 Having often been caught in the middle between the rivals, Pakistan is looking forward to calmer Saudi-Iran relations and reaping economic benefits through its partner, China.
Israel Braces for Violence During Ramadan
Wars of the Jewish state
  • WINEP’s Matthew Levitt: Hezbollah infiltrates Israel (Part 1): Another step toward changing the rules of the game
Max J. Prowant writes: In short, diplomacy between Saudi Arabia and Iran is neither inimical to U.S. interests nor is it a herald of a new era of Middle East peace. U.S. policymakers should welcome any effort to ease tensions between the countries. It should also continue to strengthen an alliance between Saudi Arabia and Israel. The Abraham Accords, not the Beijing talks, will bring a more lasting peace to the Middle East. – The National Interest
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FRAGILE STATE:  PAKISTAN

3/8/2023

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THE FRIDAY TIMES
Discussing China’s Foreign Policy
Sheena Chestnut Greitens | National Committee on US-China Relations
Five Years After a Disastrous Syria Battle, Wagner Is More Dangerous Than Ever
By Kyle Sajoyan, RealClearDefense: “The Defense Department’s top procurement official is taking aim at watchdog-type laws that are put in place to discourage corruption in government.”

Putin Truly Fears Russia’s Potential Rupture
By Paul Goble, Eurasia Daily Monitor: “In February 2023, when President Vladimir Putin referred to the possibility that not only the Russian Federation but also the Russian nation itself could disintegrate, commentators in both Moscow and the West agreed almost unanimously that he was engaged in a propaganda exercise rather than expressing his own views."
A Strategy of Denial for the Western Pacific
By Elbridge Colby, Proceedings: “China aspires to dominate the Indo-Pacific region—the impact of which would dramatically undermine Americans’ security, freedom, and prosperity. The only workable strategy is to deny China this goal. The naval services will play a central role."

We May Already be in a Cold War with China
By Joseph DeTrani, The Cipher Brief: "Although bilateral trade with China in 2022 increased to a record $690.6 billion, bilateral relations deteriorated to their lowest level since the normalization of relations in 1979."
Conflict Realism: 
A New School of Thought for Examining the Future of Armed Conflict

By Amos Fox, Strategy Bridge: “The future of armed conflict is a divisive topic in which competing camps and actors grapple to control the narrative."
Biden’s State Department ignores Iranian death plots inside America
Yair Albeck and Jonathan Schachter write: The place to begin is clear: renewed enforcement of U.S. sanctions against Iran and the activation of the JCPOA’s snapback mechanism, which would reimpose international sanctions and a ban on the transfer of arms to and from Iran. Doing so would help the United States achieve its goals — not just with Iran, but in Ukraine and around the world. – The Hill 

Jonathan Lis writes: “Iran started to break the agreement systematically only after the United States pulled out of it. It did so for two main reasons. Alongside the desire in principle to advance its nuclear abilities, the detected breaches were mostly tactical, to leverage pressures to resume the agreement and understanding the other side had breached the agreement anyway,” an Israeli official said. – Haaretz

Shaul Bartal writes: Actions by Islamic Jihad have the potential to aggravate the security situation and lead to suspension of Israel’s security cooperation with the Palestinian Authority, as occurred after the Jenin operation. Israeli decision-makers must understand the nature of the struggle and continue to act against Islamic Jihad’s entrenchment as a significant military force in the West Bank. This is essential in order to prevent the “unity of the fronts” that Iran is trying to achieve through the proxy organizations, with Islamic Jihad at the forefront. – Algemeiner
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NORTHERN IRELAND:  AFTER GOOD FRIDAY, MANAGING THE PROTOCOL

3/3/2023

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NORTHERN IRELAND UK GUARDIAN
UK GUARDIAN
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a compromise yesterday (Bloomberg) on trade rules that have sown tensions since the United Kingdom (UK) left the European Union (EU) in 2020. The new deal, the Windsor Framework, would reduce customs checks (NYT) imposed on goods traded between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. It will also allow the Northern Irish government an emergency veto over EU laws.
Sunak is in Belfast today seeking support for the deal. It does not technically require ratification, but Sunak said the UK House of Commons will vote on it “at the appropriate time.” Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) has boycotted participation (FT) in Northern Ireland’s legislature since May 2022 over certain post-Brexit rules. The DUP’s leader said the new deal addressed some of the party’s concerns, but others remain.
“There is no doubt that Brexit soured the good relations that had existed between the UK and Ireland because of their joint interest in Northern Ireland affairs in the wake of the Good Friday Agreement. The hope now is that the Windsor Framework will allow a reset, not just between the two states but also between the UK and the wider EU,” the BBC’s Shane Harrison writes.

“Driven as it was by English politicians and English voters, Brexit could only increase disaffection from the United Kingdom in both Northern Ireland and Scotland,” Princeton University’s Fintan O’Toole writes for Foreign Affairs. “In legal fact, Brexit has set in train a process of detaching Northern Ireland from Great Britain.”
The Palestinians' New Terror Groups  by Bassam Tawi
​Rethinking Israeli Foreign Policy In Turbulent Times
  • JPost’s Seth J. Frantzman: Iran’s diminishing returns on enriching uranium
  • Brookings Institution’s Adam Lammon: Hezbollah financier arrested as Lebanon teeters toward collapse
Annika Ganzeveld, Kitaneh Fitzpatrick, Johanna Moore, Amin Soltani, and Frederick W. Kagan write: The Iranian regime has apparently failed to take measures to protect schools following 46 separate reports of chemical poisonings targeting schoolgirls throughout the country on March 1. […] The US Naval Forces Central Command announced that US forces supported a UK-led interdiction of an illegal Iranain weapons shipment in the Gulf of Oman on February 23. – Institute for the Study of War ​
Jo Inge Bekkevold writes: China’s geopolitical position, including its lack of true superpower status, has two main strategic implications. First, in a short to medium-term perspective, the U.S.-China rivalry will be regional—restricted to Asia and the Indo-Pacific—and a predominantly naval contest. […] The other and more long-term strategic implication concerns any attempts by China to leapfrog the geopolitical constraints of its home region. The manner in which China sets about doing this, and United States’ efforts to prevent it, would then define their rivalry. – Foreign Policy ​
The Persistent Threat of Nuclear Crises Among China, India and Pakistan
Daniel Markey on Strategic Stability in Southern Asia
DANIEL MARKEY.ORG
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NIGERIA.....TOMORROW

2/24/2023

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For the Africa in Transition blog, CFR’s Michelle Gavin discusses the continental implications of Nigeria’s general elections.
A Time for American Stability—and Power
Great Leap Nowhere: The Challenges of China’s Semiconductor Industry,
Special Operations Forces Require Greater Proficiency in Artificial Intelligence
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SAUDI NUCLEAR AMBITIONS AS IRAN GOES NUCLEAR.......

2/21/2023

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David P. Goldman on the New, New Middle East: China, Iran, and Turkey
by Marilyn Stern
Middle East Forum Webinar
February 27, 2023

https://www.meforum.org/64214/david-p-goldman-on-the-new-new-middle-east-china
Analysis of IAEA Iran Verification and Monitoring Report – February 2023
Iran Enriched Uranium to Near Atomic-Weapons Grade, IAEA Confirm
Saudi Nuclear Ambitions Could Upend the Middle East
China Has More ICBM Nuke Launchers Than The US, General Warns
The Sino-American Rivalry In The Middle East: Why The United States Can’t Neglect The Middle East In Its Global Confrontation Against China
Writing in Foreign Affairs, Kori Schake criticizes President Joe Biden’s foreign policy and identifies what she says is “a troubling disconnect between the administration’s stated priorities and its conduct.” According to Schake, American leaders have failed to coordinate economic policy, defense spending, and diplomacy in support of their ambitious yet somewhat contradictory strategy for countering China.
Why Israel’s chaotic protests are proof that its democracy works
Is Israel’s democracy in danger? You betcha, but if you think the bad guy is Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, think again. Usually, making sense of…
‘Chip War’
By Robert Wihtol, The Strategist (ASPI): “The ‘Malacca dilemma’ is generally considered to top China’s list of strategic concerns."

Incubators of Sea Power:
Naval Combat Training in the PLA Surface Fleet

By Ryan D. Martinson, CIMSEC: "Basic training conducted at Vessel Training Centers (VTCs) is essential to PLAN preparations for high-end conflict in maritime East Asia, which is the primary focus of China’s current military strategy."

PLA Information Warfare and Military Diplomacy:
A Primer on Modernization Trends

By Patrick Cunningham, Small Wars Journal: "The opening remarks of the 2022 National Defense Strategy (NDS) highlight the views held by many leaders within the United States on the current security environment: that “we are living in a decisive decade,” that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) “remains our most consequential strategic competitor” for the foreseeable future . . ."
Best Solution for U.S Military and Economy is More Domestic Energy Supply,
Not Disjointed Climate Lawsuits

By Robert Carey, RealClearDefense: ““While it is important to continue to look for ‘greener’ ways to fuel the military, the reality is the U.S. military must always take into account its enemies’ own fossil-fuel uses and potential superior deployment abilities because of those uses."
Iran Enriching Uranium to Near Weapons-Grade
In a courageous 1933 lecture, Wilhelm Röpke explained the value of liberalism—a message still worth considering today.
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The First Minister thought the trans issue would pave the road to Scottish independence. Instead, it showed her the door.
READ MORE ›
John Carroll's eulogies in honor of George Washington serve as a correction to the narrative of an anti-Catholic American Founding.
READ MORE ›
Secure Communities: Stopping the Salafi-Jihadi Surge in Africa
The Next Salafi-Jihadi Wave: Capabilities, Resources, and Opportunity
The Underestimated Insurgency: African States at Risk for Salafi-Jihadi Insurgencies
The Underestimated Insurgency, Continued: Salafi-Jihadi Capabilities and Opportunities in Africa
U.S. and Allies Should Target Top Iranian Executives
  • "U.S. Takes Action to Stem Iran’s Drone Capabilities," FDD Experts, FDD Flash Brief
  • Iran reveals an underground air force base, IRNA says
Rep. Adam Smith: U.S. Military Readiness a ‘Huge Problem’
By Julia Mueller, The Hill: "“This is a huge problem. And we don’t have the industrial base. And we don’t have the ability to ramp up that industrial base.”"
Integrated Deterrence Requires a Unique Intelligence Mindset
By Itai Shapira, RealClearDefense: "The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) is placing much emphasis on the concept of Integrated Deterrence, which should be executed through a ‘mindset of campaigning’ in the context of strategic competition."
The Federal Reserve Needs to Pause Raising Interest Rates
Desmond Lachman | 19fortyfive.com
When the Federal Reserve meets next week, it would do well to recall two of Milton Friedman’s fundamental economic teachings.

Full Story
Jonathan Schanzer: The Abraham Accords and Jordan's Unsustainable Position
by Marilyn Stern
Middle East Forum Webinar
January 13, 2023

https://www.meforum.org/64063/jonathan-schanzer-the-abraham-accords-and-jordan
National Strategy for Countering North Korea
U.S. Defense Industry Unprepared for a China Fight
By Joe Gould, Defense News: “The U.S. defense-industrial base is not ready for a battle over Taiwan . . ."
National Strategy for Countering North Korea
By Robert Joseph, Robert Collins, Joseph DeTrani, Nicholas Eberstadt, Olivia Enos, David Maxwell & Greg Scarlatoiu, National Institute for Public Policy: "Since the emergence of the nuclear threat from North Korea in the early 1990s, the primary objective of U.S. policy has been to convince Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear weapons program."
Who Will Be the Next Turkish Opposition Party Leader Arrested?
The State Department’s Disingenuous Defiance of Congress on Somalia
RUSSIA HAS NO NCO'S FATAL FLAW
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CHINESE BALLOONS MEAN BEIJING'S WAR PREPARATION; ISLAMIC AUTOCRACIES & ILLICIT DRUGS

2/15/2023

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China Now Has More ICBM Launchers Than US: Military Report
CHINA PREPARES FOR WAR WITH U.S.
National Strategy for Countering North Korea
North Korea’s Political Warfare Strategy Has Failed: ROK – U.S. Alliance Needs A Superior Strategy
Captagon: Assad’s Deadly Drug Of Choice Expands To Israel
Secure Communities: Stopping the Salafi-Jihadi Surge in Africa
 Emily Estelle Perez | February 2023

  • The next Salafi-jihadi terror threat to the West may originate in Africa. Insurgencies linked to al Qaeda and the Islamic State have formed, re-formed, spread, and grown entrenched on the continent over the past two decades. As Salafi-jihadi groups mature, they gain capabilities that they can marshal toward both local and international goals. Counterterrorism interventions have failed to secure communities, allowing Salafi-jihadi groups to capitalize repeatedly on conflicts and grievances to establish and expand their presence.

  • Africa is an increasingly important theater for geopolitical competition. The same conditions that benefit Salafi-jihadi groups also create openings for malign actors like the Russian Wagner Group. US policymakers should treat community security like public health, as a service provided to civilians that benefits Americans and Africans alike and helps maintain the world order that undergirds US freedom, safety, and prosperity.

  • An approach focused on securing communities should not require intervening everywhere at a large scale, but rather smart investments in preventive action and refocusing counterterrorism responses. The United States should work with African partners to develop policy approaches for preventing Salafi-jihadi insurgencies from forming whenever possible and containing or rolling them back when necessary. These approaches will require changing the focus and risk tolerance of US security policy in Africa while reforming interagency coordination to facilitate this new approach.
READ MORE
Russia Against The Rest
The Next Salafi-Jihadi Wave: Capabilities, Resources, and Opportunity
The Underestimated Insurgency: African States at Risk for Salafi-Jihadi Insurgencies
The Underestimated Insurgency, Continued: Salafi-Jihadi Capabilities and Opportunities in Africa
This In Brief explains why the IMF bailout won’t be the end of Pakistan’s economic woes.
Pakistani Taliban: The Most Powerful Anti-State Actor in the Country​
The Promise and Pitfalls of Underwater Domain Awareness, by Abhijit Singh
Steven B. Kamin, Carlos Arteta, and Franz Ulrich Ruch summarize the three types of shocks that drove US interest rate hikes in the past year, threatening the economic health of developing economies. Desmond Lachman warns that, contrary to popular belief among world leaders, China abandoning its zero-COVID policy is not enough to turn around its serious economic woes, which are bound substantially harm the global economy.
DOJ Reveals New Iran-backed Assassination Attempt on Iranian American Journalist
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BIDEN STALLS ON BEIJING; FDD THINK TANK TACKLES IRANIAN NUKE PROGRAM;

2/15/2023

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China's Balloon Reveals the Weaknesses in US National Security Decision-Making
by Lawrence A. Franklin
Iranian Nationalists Reject the Regime
​
It‘s no longer true that a Western military strike would lend the theocracy stronger domestic support.
 Reuel Marc Gerecht | Senior Fellow
MARBURG VIRUS DOMINATES WEST AFRICA is the country’s first outbreak (WHO) 
Pakistan’s power crisis.
When the Same North Korea Policy Fails Over and Over Again​
Saudi Nuclear Ambitions Could Upend the Middle East
​
And there are steps the U.S. can take to ward them off.
 Andrea Stricker | Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program Deputy Director and Research Fello
By Behnam Ben Taleblu FDD
Read Full Monograph
When will Saudi Arabia Sign Peace with Israel?
​
Saudi Arabia's new policy, Vision 2030, requires a newer foreign policy on Palestinians
The Case for Japanese Land Power in the First Island Chain, by Yusuke Kawachi
The Defense Industrial Base Is America’s Diplomatic Ace in the Hole. Let’s Use It.
How To Bring Innovation to America’s Nuclear Strategy
By Leonor Tomero, Defense News: "The United States should adopt a new nuclear strategy of innovation for deterrence resilience."
In China, a Web of Actors Weave Foreign Policy
By Carlo J.V. Caro, The Diplomat: "Beijing is often framed as a unitary actor, but the reality is that many actors influence policy decisions."
  • WINEP’s Soner Cagaptay: How will Turkey’s earthquake affect the current election cycle?
America’s Diplomatic Neglect Compounds Fighting in Somalia
Michael Rubin | 19fortyfive.co
  • Militant in Iran identified as al-Qaeda’s probable new chief in U.N. report
Kitaneh Fitzpatrick, Zachary Coles, Annika Ganzeveld, Jonathan Baumel, and Frederick W. Kagan write: Former Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is positioning himself to reenter the public arena after a period of relative absence. Iran-backed militias have recently withdrawn from military positions in Deir ez-Zour Province and may redeploy to Aleppo Province.[…]Iranian media outlets recirculated Parliamentarian Shahryar Heydari’s January 15 announcement that Iran will soon receive an unspecified number of Su-35 fighter jets. President Ebrahim Raisi signed 20 agreements on Sino-Iranian in Beijing on February 14. – Institute for the Study of War  

Younes Abouyoub writes: This changes the geopolitical balance and the close relationship that the United States, given its long-standing dependence on energy imports, had developed with MENA countries since World War II.[…]The turn of MENA energy-exporting countries towards the Asian market, with the growing economic and political power of states like China and India, has created new opportunities for exporters to impose themselves as major players as clean energy geopolitics grow in importance, thus mitigating as much as possible the potential loss in terms of geopolitical influence induced by the energy transition. – Middle East Institute   ​
America and China: Whose Timeline Is It, Anyway?
Dustin Walker | Breaking Defense
Attempts to answer the question of whether and when China will invade Taiwan are clouding rather than clarifying America’s national security debate. Dustin Walker explains that it is past time for policymakers and military leaders to stop speculating about China’s timeline for war and focus on America’s timeline for deterring it. American leaders must recognize that the US has entered an indefinite window of concern in which the possibility of war with China and the plausibility of American defeat are present and future realities. This indefinite threat of war collapses and confounds America's decision making when it is creating strategies to combat the near-, medium-, and long-term threats. The Pentagon needs a cohesive strategy for mitigating risk across all time frames. Learn more here. >>
Intention, Not Capacity
​
The White House’s new way of seeing the Iranian bomb.
The Iran Nuclear Deal Isn’t Dead
​
The State Department is fighting to keep it alive, even if an agreement benefits Russia and China.
Wagner’s Next Targets in Africa: Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Ivory Coast
Secure Communities: Stopping the Salafi-Jihadi Surge in Africa
U.S. Begins Forging Rare Earth Supply Chain
By Mikayla Easley, National Defense Magazine: “. . . over the last three decades, Beijing has held an iron grip on the world’s supply chain for rare earth elements such that nearly all materials — no matter where in the world they are mined — travel to China for refinement"
Opposition to L3Harris-Aerojet Deal Part of Broader Anti-Trust Trend
From Army Technology: "The U.S. defense industry being almost totally controlled by five major companies is increasingly a point of regulatory and political contention.”
US-China Trade Sets Records
Derek Scissors | AEIdeas
We’re not standing up to China, and we’re not going too far. We’re not doing anything of consequence—as 2022 trade shows, again.

Full Story
US Indo-Pacific Policy Prioritizes Security over Economics
Claude Barfield | East Asia Forum
​

Tyler Cowen on the State of the Great Stagnation, Pro-Progress Policy, Metascience, and More
James Pethokoukis | Faster, Please!
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PAKISTAN'S DOMESTIC TERROR AGENCY HITS AGAIN; NIGERIA'S ELECTIONS; THE PRC PROVOCATION

2/2/2023

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AEI’s Michael Rubin: Wagner’s next targets in Africa: Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Ivory Coast
IRAN SMUGGLES AGENTS INTO  U.S.  New York Post
Israel’s Illiberal Judiciary
by ronen shovalSince Israeli elites cannot control society through the political process, they have looked for other ways.
READ MORE ›
Why Do Iranians Hate the Mujahedin-e-Khalq So Much?
Michael Rubin | Washington Examiner
The Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) significantly escalated its attack campaign against the Pakistani state with a major suicide bombing targeting police in northwestern Pakistan on January 30 .  READ MORE >>
SEE FULL UPDATE
Maps from the past week
See more maps tracking Salafi-Jihadi movements in Africa, the Middle East and Central/South Asia >
Emerging ‘Offset-X’ Strategy Addresses Chinese Threat
The Quiet War between Israel and Iran
Iran's Hegemonic Drive by Jonathan Schanzer
Middle East Quarterly

Winter 2023 (view PDF)

https://www.meforum.org/63850/the-quiet-war-between-israel-and-iran
The China Syndrome
It is the Communist Party’s Maoist vision that is imploding from internal contradictions, not that of Western democracy.
  • Festina Lente by Seth Cropsey
Air Force Intel Officer Had Hundreds of Classified and Secret Files at His Florida Home
By Thomas Novelly, Military.com: "A retired Air Force intelligence officer accepted a plea deal with federal prosecutors last year admitting to illegally possessing hundreds of top secret and classified documents, according to court records filed Friday."
In an article in the Emirati daily Al-Arab, Lebanese columnist Khairallah Khairallah discusses the deep crisis Lebanon is experiencing and states that 2022 was one of the hardest years in its history. The Arabs, he adds, regard Lebanon as a failed state and an Iranian base hostile to all the countries in the region. The world likewise ascribes no importance to Lebanon, says Khairallah, seeing it as a country that is effectively ruled by Hizbullah. He states that Lebanon’s tragedy will only end when Iran’s Rule of the Jurisprudent regime ceases to exist and the region undergoes a profound transformation. – Middle East Media Research Institute ​
Simon Henderson writes: With former prime minister Imran Khan actively trying to undermine the present government of Shehbaz Sharif — whose brother Nawaz was overthrown in Musharraf’s initial 1999 coup — it can be difficult to work out Pakistan’s imminent future. […]One hope may be that Saudi Arabia will write an even larger check than currently half-promised.  At best that would be a temporary solution. Musharraf’s life story encapsulates Pakistan’s struggle to relate to the U.S. and stop the nation from spiraling downward. – The Hill
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THE WAR AGAINST THE HAN MASTERS CONTINUES

1/29/2023

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