Iran's Ballistic Missile Program: New Developments By Farhad Rezaei, March 12, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Iran’s rapid development of missile expertise has raised concerns in Washington and among its allies about Tehran’s intentions. Despite international censure, the Revolutionary Guards have been able to develop the largest and most diverse ballistic missile arsenal in the region. Tehran is determined to develop and acquire ever more advanced and accurate ballistic missiles – but its efforts to achieve that goal are hampered by American and Israeli determination to subvert it. Continue to full article ->
Unmasking war's changing character
(Modern War Institute) There seems to be widespread agreement that the character of war is changing but little consensus as to exactly how. 
Hundreds of demonstrators took to the streets in Khartoum, Sudan’s capital, to protest against President Omar al-Bashir. Security forces rounded up some of the protesters.
WSJ
Micheal Rubin writes: Arguably, Somalia—rather than Afghanistan—is America’s longest war. […], the failure even to coordinate with those controlling key territory most successful again Al-Shaabab, pirates, and weapons smugglers suggests that, while the Pentagon is willing to spend money, AFRICOM is not prepared to win. – American Enterprise Insitute
Aaron Stein writes: The S-400 saga is a microcosm of broader, structural changes driving the United States and Turkey apart. Beyond personality politics, it is now simply a fact that Washington and Ankara have different interests in the Middle East and view one another as hindrances to realizing national goals. Given this reality, it would be imprudent for the United States (and European F-35 operators) not to study its options, and start looking at ways to mitigate the risk to the F-35. – War On The Rocks
Turkey is changing the Middle East, but the US doesn't get it
(Bloomberg) For at least 10 years, the region has been caricatured as divided into two camps: a pro-Iranian coalition and a looser but larger group that opposes Iran's ambitions. For short, it’s sometimes foolishly reduced to a Sunni-Shiite sectarian divide.
Erin Dunne writes: Turkey is an important ally occupying a key geographic position at the crossroads of Central Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. That has made the country a strategic ally hosting airbases and missiles and serving as a launch point for U.S. and NATO operations in the Middle East. Those same strategic considerations have also made Turkey a prime target for other foreign powers, Russia chief among them. Increased relations between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin is a clear blow to Washington’s interests, threatening to block U.S. access to the Middle East and cut its regional influence. – Washington Examiner
Micheal Rubin writes: The German government’s celebration of Iran’s Islamic Revolution may have been gratuitous, but it was consistent with decades, if not more than a century, of German foreign policy. For successive German governments, lucrative contracts have always trumped human rights and, absent any moral clarity in German political culture, will continue to do so. – Washington Examiner
Michael Eisenstadt and Soner Cagaptay write: Although President Trump was following through on an oft-repeated campaign pledge when he announced a full withdrawal in December, the decision was still viewed by many as a hasty move that could upset the fragile equilibrium created by the U.S. military presence in Syria. […] In the end, President Trump will have to reconcile two incompatible campaign promises—disengaging from the Middle East or defeating IS. Doing so means making hard choices that may not align with his preferences, but could go far toward safeguarding U.S. interests in the region. – Washington Institute
The Erasure of the Islamic State's Caliphate Won't Ensure Its Defeat
By Scott Stewart, Stratfor Worldview: “A number of external factors greatly aided the revival of the Islamic State in Iraq and its expansion into the larger and more expansive Islamic State."
Mired in recriminations, Turkish-Egyptian ties remain stagnant
Prospects for improved relations between Ankara and Cairo appear dimmer than ever following recent executions in Egypt.
Asli Aydintasbas writes: If you think Turkey’s relationship with the United States is currently very tumultuous, you haven’t seen anything yet. The two allies have had bouts of hysteria on and off since 2015, mostly to do with Ankara resenting U.S. support for Syrian Kurds and Washington increasingly finding its longtime ally an unreliable partner in the Middle East.[…] As much as a strongman as Erdogan appears, the S-400 controversy actually demonstrates the weak position he has put Turkey in. His effort to demonstrate that Turkey has choices and is not an American vassal has so alienated Turkey’s Western partners and weakened its economy that the country now risks becoming a Russian vassal. – Washington Post
Road From Hanoi to Pyongyang Goes Via Beijing
By James Stavridis, Nikkei Asian Review: “Trump's best hope of a lasting nuclear deal with North Korea depends on China."
After weeks of failed talks following an election widely believed to be fraudulent, the newly-elected President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Felix Tshisekedi, has been urged to enter a power-sharing agreement with his predecessor, Joseph Kabila.
If Trump truly wants to end America’s endless wars abroad, he should embrace US allies, bolster democracies, and recognize that even at the height of its greatness, America has never truly gone it alone. Finish here.
AEI’s Marc Thiessen debated Buck Sexton on the correct US military strategy in the Middle East and the future of US national security. The two discussed whether a full withdrawal is in the United States’ best interest and whether our lengthy engagement with ISIS has successfully deterred future attacks. Watch the debate here.
Out of Africa: Why has Somaliland succeeded where Iraqi Kurdistan has failed?
Michael Rubin | 1001 Iraqi Thoughts
Somaliland – Key to Winning America's Longest War
By Michael Rubin, RealClearDefense: “ Gen. Thomas Waldhauser, AFRICOM commander, told the Senate Armed Services Committee that U.S. airstrikes alone would not defeat al-Shabaab. Instead, he said, local forces need to "step up." He is right, so it is especially unfortunate that when local forces step up to rebuff al-Shabaab, AFRICOM ignores them. HOW THE SALIFI JIHADI MOVEMENT IS WINNING, AFRICOM STAYS IN GHANA & AEI'S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT2/17/2019  The Salafi-jihadist movement is winning Katherine Zimmerman | RealClearWorld Local conflicts and popular grievances create openings for the Salafi-jihadist movement to grow its influence. Working to resolve these conflicts will block its efforts to infiltrate communities. Reducing the movement’s ability to interact with populations is the only way to weaken it. America’s strategy must change to reflect this reality. AFRICOM Adds Logistics Hub in West Africa, Hinting at an Enduring US Presence // Katie Bo Williams From Ghana's capital, a new supply network will ferry supplies and arms to special forces troops across the region. U.S., AFRICA: Understaffed AFRICOM CuttingHundreds More Troops By Tara Copp, Military Times: “U.S. Africa Command has begun cutting up to 10 percent of its forces from the continent in response to U.S. security challenges elsewhere, the top U.S. commander for Africa told reporters at the Munich Security Conference." CTP’s Threat Update series is a weekly update and assessment of the al Qaeda network and its affiliates in Yemen, the Horn of Africa, and the Maghreb and Sahel. CTP’s Iran team follows developments on the internal politics, military capabilities, and regional conflicts closely. Jomana Qaddour writes: The Trump administration’s stated policy objectives in Syria were reaffirmed at the February 6 meeting of the “Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS”: namely, to push back against Iranian hegemony, destroy the Islamic State, and condition reconstruction on real political progress outlined in UN Security Council Resolution 2254. Now that the administration intends to relinquish most of its military leverage inside Syria, however, it will need to strategically coordinate with regional allies even more to achieve these objectives. Its last, best leverage in this regard is reconstruction. – Washington Institute
 Paraguay Is a Fiscal Paradise for Terrorists Emanuele Ottolenghi — Foreign Policy The U.S. Department of Justice last year designated Hezbollah, a Lebanese political party and militant group, as a transnational criminal organization, thanks to its long-standing and well-documented partnership with Latin American drug cartels. A focal point of Hezbollah operations in the Western Hemisphere is the Tri-Border Area ... Read more Europe: Trying to Legitimize Iran's Regime by Giulio Meotti Will Germany, Not Ready & Slow To Invest, Keep EU Leadership, Deter Putin By Robbin Laird, Wednesday, February 20, 2019 3:41 PM The Cold War has not returned, but the Russians have. The challenge for the Trump Administration is less about whether the US cares about European defense; it is much more about a strategic shift of American attention to dealing with the Chinese and North Korean threats. German Foreign Policy is Stuck in Neutral by Julianne Smith GERMANY:
The Unready Hegemon By Constanze Stelzenmüller, Berlin Policy Journal: “German foreign and security policy is not prepared for the new era of great power competition. To stand up for its convictions and values, the country needs to step up."  The British Parliament has voted to reject a no-deal Brexit after a chaotic evening in the House of Commons that laid bare divisions within the governing Conservative Party. British lawmakers will today vote on postponing the date when Britain leaves the European Union. There are 15 days to go until the scheduled exit date of March 29. British Prime Minister Theresa May is also expected to put her proposed Brexit deal before the British Parliament for a third time in the coming week even though Parliament has already rejected it on two occasions. May told members of Parliament that if her deal was not accepted, then Brexit may be delayed considerably. Could Brexit Manage To Unite Ireland? By PAUL ATKINSON, Special to the Sun | March 12, 2019 https://www.nysun.com/foreign/could-brexit-manage-to-unite-ireland/90605/ What Would De Gaulle Do? Editorial of The New York Sun | March 6, 2019 https://www.nysun.com/editorials/what-would-de-gaulle-do/90598/ What in the world is Charles de Gaulle going to think when he gets ahold of the latest op-ed piece from Emmanuel Macron? We understand that De Gaulle, the founding father of the Fifth Republic, has been dead for nigh fifty years. A lucky thing for him, too, given the way things are going in the land to which he addressed his immortal "Call to Honor." Continue Reading Brexit: A Supreme Test of the British Editorial of The New York Sun | March 13, 2019 https://www.nysun.com/editorials/brexit-a-supreme-test-of-the-british/90609/ As the Mother of Parliaments wrestles with whether to bow to the voters of Great Britain or the mandarins in Brussels, here's what we will be thinking. We will be thinking how lucky Americans are that the Revolutionaries who founded our country struck for independence when they did. They seized independence when they had the chance, and it's made all the difference since. Continue Reading Theresa May’s Lucky Defeat
Theodore Dalrymple, City Journal Theresa May’s crushing defeat in the House of Commons yesterday over her plan for Britain to leave the European Union was actually a great victory for her, provided that you make a simple assumption: that she and her colleagues never wanted Britain to leave the EU in the first place. A majority of the British legislature is, and always was, opposed to Brexit. Those legislators who agitated most vociferously for it declined, when the time came, to carry out the policy, leaving it to a woman, already well known for her political maladroitness. Read more here....  Is Mexico a Failing State?
By Alexander Grinberg, Strategy Bridge: "In 2009, U.S. Joint Forces Command released a statement expressing concerns over Mexico, highlighting the potential even then for a total collapse."  Middle Eastern Communities Can Resist Sectarianism
Sectarian violence in the Middle East has been destructive, but it is still the exception rather than the norm. Communities are generally resilient to the worst sectarian impulses. Lessons from Lebanon, Bahrain, Syria, and Iraq show that there are a range of actions that can curb sectarianism. Read more »
Get China and Russia Out of Venezuela - and the Western Hemisphere by Gordon G. Chang
 Rent-seeking behavior in US international food aid programs
Stephanie Mercier | American Enterprise Institute Food aid programs provide rents to interest groups through cargo preference requirements and purchasing requirements raising program costs. As a result, US food aid is not efficiently achieving its goals of increasing US soft power and alleviating global hunger.  UK Parliament wants new Brexit talks BY ASIA TIMES STAFF Brussels reiterates best deal has already been offered Does Sterling Back Brexit?
Editorial of The New York Sun | January 31, 2019 https://www.nysun.com/editorials/does-sterling-back-brexit/90554/  Modi plays temple politics, minorities set to play key election roles BY KANCHAN SRIVASTAVA The BJP will lean on upper caste Hindu voters in the 2019 Indian elections, as opposition parties look to consolidate other sectors of the vote Can India weather the Middle East Strategic Alliance?
HASAN ALHASAN New Delhi may never have felt more vindicated in its Middle East policy than it does now. Its close ties with all the major powers in the Middle East, including Israel, Iran and the Gulf monarchies, have shielded its interests from the region’s geopolitical fluctuations. Yet, going forward, the region’s increasing polarization, of which the Middle East Strategic Alliance (MESA) is but the latest manifestation, poses a considerable challenge for India. Signs of this are...  The US Needs a Real Plan to Counter China in Africa // Adam Ereli The current toothless strategy won't prevent Beijing from, say, squeezing supply lines to America's biggest African base. Trump’s Africa Surprise By Jonathan Gass, Atlantic Council: "Africa has generally ranked near the bottom of U.S. foreign policy priorities. Historically, two-term presidents have waited until their second term to establish their legacies on the continent, and many one-term presidents have neglected it altogether. U.S. President Donald J. Trump has surprised many by bucking this trend." The Saga of Mukhtar Robow and Somalia’s Fractious Politics by Christopher Anzalone and Stig Jarle Hansen
TRUMP GETS VENEZUELA RIGHT & WHY VENEZUELAN PROTECTORS IN HAVANA AND MOSCOW MATTER FOR CARACAS1/28/2019  Trump’s Syria Pullout Plan Cannot Win Turkey Back by Merve Tahiroglu and Aykan Erdemir Why Hasn't Syria Used the S-300? by Seth Frantzman https://www.meforum.org/57640/hasnt-syria-used-s-300 Bashir will survive as he firms up Sudan’s ties with Turkey, Qatar DNYANESH KAMAT Omar al-Bashir, the president of Sudan, will survive the recent protests in his country. But in his political survival, Sudan also will see itself more tightly binding itself to Turkey and Qatar. The cause of the protests has been economics. The government withdrew subsidies on bread, and thereby caused a tripling of prices. This was done against a backdrop of already runaway inflation (prices rose 72% in December), government limits on bank withdrawals, and a... Alexander Decina writes: Western governments have repeatedly had to downgrade their expectations for Syria. After nearly eight years of war, demands for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s immediate departure slowly whittled down to a reluctant acceptance that no political transition is forthcoming. Now, Western countries find themselves deliberating whether to participate in Syria’s reconstruction without the political transition they have long demanded. – War on the Rocks
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