CounterStrikeMedia - EMERGING THREATS U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY

CONDITIONS FOR ANOTHER ARAB SPRING ARRIVE

3/22/2023

The Role Of U.S. Diplomacy In Countering Russia’s Nuclear Threats And Misbehavior
by Rose Gottemoeller via Texas National Security Review

What’s in the Saudi Iranian Beijing Deal

How to Keep Antisemitism Away From Turtle Bay

As Ramadan arrives, inflation chokes Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia
In North African nations, higher food costs will make it harder to access supplies for the festive month.

Russia's Wagner activities expanding in Libya despite growing Western scrutiny
The Wagner Group has sought to use Libya as a forward base for its activities in the Sahel region, particularly Chad and Niger, while building spheres of influence with local communities and smuggling networks in the southern border regions of Libya.

For Pakistan, many opportunities, questions in China's Iran-Saudi deal
Having often been caught in the middle between the rivals, Pakistan is looking forward to calmer Saudi-Iran relations and reaping economic benefits through its partner, China.

Israel Braces for Violence During Ramadan

Wars of the Jewish state

WINEP’s Matthew Levitt: Hezbollah infiltrates Israel (Part 1): Another step toward changing the rules of the game

Max J. Prowant writes: In short, diplomacy between Saudi Arabia and Iran is neither inimical to U.S. interests nor is it a herald of a new era of Middle East peace. U.S. policymakers should welcome any effort to ease tensions between the countries. It should also continue to strengthen an alliance between Saudi Arabia and Israel. The Abraham Accords, not the Beijing talks, will bring a more lasting peace to the Middle East. – The National Interest

FRAGILE STATE: PAKISTAN

3/8/2023

THE FRIDAY TIMES

Discussing China’s Foreign Policy
Sheena Chestnut Greitens | National Committee on US-China Relations

Five Years After a Disastrous Syria Battle, Wagner Is More Dangerous Than Ever
By Kyle Sajoyan, RealClearDefense: “The Defense Department’s top procurement official is taking aim at watchdog-type laws that are put in place to discourage corruption in government.”

Putin Truly Fears Russia’s Potential Rupture
By Paul Goble, Eurasia Daily Monitor: “In February 2023, when President Vladimir Putin referred to the possibility that not only the Russian Federation but also the Russian nation itself could disintegrate, commentators in both Moscow and the West agreed almost unanimously that he was engaged in a propaganda exercise rather than expressing his own views."

A Strategy of Denial for the Western Pacific
By Elbridge Colby, Proceedings: “China aspires to dominate the Indo-Pacific region—the impact of which would dramatically undermine Americans’ security, freedom, and prosperity. The only workable strategy is to deny China this goal. The naval services will play a central role."

We May Already be in a Cold War with China
By Joseph DeTrani, The Cipher Brief: "Although bilateral trade with China in 2022 increased to a record $690.6 billion, bilateral relations deteriorated to their lowest level since the normalization of relations in 1979."

Conflict Realism:
A New School of Thought for Examining the Future of Armed Conflict
By Amos Fox, Strategy Bridge: “The future of armed conflict is a divisive topic in which competing camps and actors grapple to control the narrative."

Biden’s State Department ignores Iranian death plots inside America

Yair Albeck and Jonathan Schachter write: The place to begin is clear: renewed enforcement of U.S. sanctions against Iran and the activation of the JCPOA’s snapback mechanism, which would reimpose international sanctions and a ban on the transfer of arms to and from Iran. Doing so would help the United States achieve its goals — not just with Iran, but in Ukraine and around the world. – The Hill

Jonathan Lis writes: “Iran started to break the agreement systematically only after the United States pulled out of it. It did so for two main reasons. Alongside the desire in principle to advance its nuclear abilities, the detected breaches were mostly tactical, to leverage pressures to resume the agreement and understanding the other side had breached the agreement anyway,” an Israeli official said. – Haaretz

Shaul Bartal writes: Actions by Islamic Jihad have the potential to aggravate the security situation and lead to suspension of Israel’s security cooperation with the Palestinian Authority, as occurred after the Jenin operation. Israeli decision-makers must understand the nature of the struggle and continue to act against Islamic Jihad’s entrenchment as a significant military force in the West Bank. This is essential in order to prevent the “unity of the fronts” that Iran is trying to achieve through the proxy organizations, with Islamic Jihad at the forefront. – Algemeiner

NORTHERN IRELAND: AFTER GOOD FRIDAY, MANAGING THE PROTOCOL

3/3/2023

NORTHERN IRELAND UK GUARDIAN

UK GUARDIAN

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a compromise yesterday (Bloomberg) on trade rules that have sown tensions since the United Kingdom (UK) left the European Union (EU) in 2020. The new deal, the Windsor Framework, would reduce customs checks (NYT) imposed on goods traded between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. It will also allow the Northern Irish government an emergency veto over EU laws.

Sunak is in Belfast today seeking support for the deal. It does not technically require ratification, but Sunak said the UK House of Commons will vote on it “at the appropriate time.” Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) has boycotted participation (FT) in Northern Ireland’s legislature since May 2022 over certain post-Brexit rules. The DUP’s leader said the new deal addressed some of the party’s concerns, but others remain.

“There is no doubt that Brexit soured the good relations that had existed between the UK and Ireland because of their joint interest in Northern Ireland affairs in the wake of the Good Friday Agreement. The hope now is that the Windsor Framework will allow a reset, not just between the two states but also between the UK and the wider EU,” the BBC’s Shane Harrison writes.

“Driven as it was by English politicians and English voters, Brexit could only increase disaffection from the United Kingdom in both Northern Ireland and Scotland,” Princeton University’s Fintan O’Toole writes for Foreign Affairs. “In legal fact, Brexit has set in train a process of detaching Northern Ireland from Great Britain.”

The Palestinians' New Terror Groups by Bassam Tawi

Rethinking Israeli Foreign Policy In Turbulent Times

JPost’s Seth J. Frantzman: Iran’s diminishing returns on enriching uranium

Brookings Institution’s Adam Lammon: Hezbollah financier arrested as Lebanon teeters toward collapse

Annika Ganzeveld, Kitaneh Fitzpatrick, Johanna Moore, Amin Soltani, and Frederick W. Kagan write: The Iranian regime has apparently failed to take measures to protect schools following 46 separate reports of chemical poisonings targeting schoolgirls throughout the country on March 1. […] The US Naval Forces Central Command announced that US forces supported a UK-led interdiction of an illegal Iranain weapons shipment in the Gulf of Oman on February 23. – Institute for the Study of War

Jo Inge Bekkevold writes: China’s geopolitical position, including its lack of true superpower status, has two main strategic implications. First, in a short to medium-term perspective, the U.S.-China rivalry will be regional—restricted to Asia and the Indo-Pacific—and a predominantly naval contest. […] The other and more long-term strategic implication concerns any attempts by China to leapfrog the geopolitical constraints of its home region. The manner in which China sets about doing this, and United States’ efforts to prevent it, would then define their rivalry. – Foreign Policy

The Persistent Threat of Nuclear Crises Among China, India and Pakistan

Daniel Markey on Strategic Stability in Southern Asia

DANIEL MARKEY.ORG

NIGERIA.....TOMORROW

2/24/2023

For the Africa in Transition blog, CFR’s Michelle Gavin discusses the continental implications of Nigeria’s general elections.

A Time for American Stability—and Power

Great Leap Nowhere: The Challenges of China’s Semiconductor Industry,

Special Operations Forces Require Greater Proficiency in Artificial Intelligence

SAUDI NUCLEAR AMBITIONS AS IRAN GOES NUCLEAR.......

2/21/2023

David P. Goldman on the New, New Middle East: China, Iran, and Turkey
by Marilyn Stern
Middle East Forum Webinar
February 27, 2023
https://www.meforum.org/64214/david-p-goldman-on-the-new-new-middle-east-china

Analysis of IAEA Iran Verification and Monitoring Report – February 2023

Iran Enriched Uranium to Near Atomic-Weapons Grade, IAEA Confirm

Saudi Nuclear Ambitions Could Upend the Middle East

China Has More ICBM Nuke Launchers Than The US, General Warns

The Sino-American Rivalry In The Middle East: Why The United States Can’t Neglect The Middle East In Its Global Confrontation Against China

Writing in Foreign Affairs, Kori Schake criticizes President Joe Biden’s foreign policy and identifies what she says is “a troubling disconnect between the administration’s stated priorities and its conduct.” According to Schake, American leaders have failed to coordinate economic policy, defense spending, and diplomacy in support of their ambitious yet somewhat contradictory strategy for countering China.

Why Israel’s chaotic protests are proof that its democracy works
Is Israel’s democracy in danger? You betcha, but if you think the bad guy is Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, think again. Usually, making sense of…

‘Chip War’
By Robert Wihtol, The Strategist (ASPI): “The ‘Malacca dilemma’ is generally considered to top China’s list of strategic concerns."

Incubators of Sea Power:
Naval Combat Training in the PLA Surface Fleet
By Ryan D. Martinson, CIMSEC: "Basic training conducted at Vessel Training Centers (VTCs) is essential to PLAN preparations for high-end conflict in maritime East Asia, which is the primary focus of China’s current military strategy."

PLA Information Warfare and Military Diplomacy:
A Primer on Modernization Trends
By Patrick Cunningham, Small Wars Journal: "The opening remarks of the 2022 National Defense Strategy (NDS) highlight the views held by many leaders within the United States on the current security environment: that “we are living in a decisive decade,” that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) “remains our most consequential strategic competitor” for the foreseeable future . . ."

Best Solution for U.S Military and Economy is More Domestic Energy Supply,
Not Disjointed Climate Lawsuits
By Robert Carey, RealClearDefense: ““While it is important to continue to look for ‘greener’ ways to fuel the military, the reality is the U.S. military must always take into account its enemies’ own fossil-fuel uses and potential superior deployment abilities because of those uses."

Iran Enriching Uranium to Near Weapons-Grade

In a courageous 1933 lecture, Wilhelm Röpke explained the value of liberalism—a message still worth considering today.
READ MORE ›

The First Minister thought the trans issue would pave the road to Scottish independence. Instead, it showed her the door.
READ MORE ›

John Carroll's eulogies in honor of George Washington serve as a correction to the narrative of an anti-Catholic American Founding.
READ MORE ›

Secure Communities: Stopping the Salafi-Jihadi Surge in Africa

The Next Salafi-Jihadi Wave: Capabilities, Resources, and Opportunity

The Underestimated Insurgency: African States at Risk for Salafi-Jihadi Insurgencies

The Underestimated Insurgency, Continued: Salafi-Jihadi Capabilities and Opportunities in Africa

U.S. and Allies Should Target Top Iranian Executives

"U.S. Takes Action to Stem Iran’s Drone Capabilities," FDD Experts, FDD Flash Brief

Iran reveals an underground air force base, IRNA says

Rep. Adam Smith: U.S. Military Readiness a ‘Huge Problem’
By Julia Mueller, The Hill: "“This is a huge problem. And we don’t have the industrial base. And we don’t have the ability to ramp up that industrial base.”"

Integrated Deterrence Requires a Unique Intelligence Mindset
By Itai Shapira, RealClearDefense: "The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) is placing much emphasis on the concept of Integrated Deterrence, which should be executed through a ‘mindset of campaigning’ in the context of strategic competition."

The Federal Reserve Needs to Pause Raising Interest Rates
Desmond Lachman | 19fortyfive.com
When the Federal Reserve meets next week, it would do well to recall two of Milton Friedman’s fundamental economic teachings.
Full Story

Jonathan Schanzer: The Abraham Accords and Jordan's Unsustainable Position
by Marilyn Stern
Middle East Forum Webinar
January 13, 2023
https://www.meforum.org/64063/jonathan-schanzer-the-abraham-accords-and-jordan

National Strategy for Countering North Korea

U.S. Defense Industry Unprepared for a China Fight
By Joe Gould, Defense News: “The U.S. defense-industrial base is not ready for a battle over Taiwan . . ."

National Strategy for Countering North Korea
By Robert Joseph, Robert Collins, Joseph DeTrani, Nicholas Eberstadt, Olivia Enos, David Maxwell & Greg Scarlatoiu, National Institute for Public Policy: "Since the emergence of the nuclear threat from North Korea in the early 1990s, the primary objective of U.S. policy has been to convince Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear weapons program."

Who Will Be the Next Turkish Opposition Party Leader Arrested?
The State Department’s Disingenuous Defiance of Congress on Somalia

RUSSIA HAS NO NCO'S FATAL FLAW

CHINESE BALLOONS MEAN BEIJING'S WAR PREPARATION; ISLAMIC AUTOCRACIES & ILLICIT DRUGS

2/15/2023

China Now Has More ICBM Launchers Than US: Military Report

CHINA PREPARES FOR WAR WITH U.S.

National Strategy for Countering North Korea

North Korea’s Political Warfare Strategy Has Failed: ROK – U.S. Alliance Needs A Superior Strategy

Captagon: Assad’s Deadly Drug Of Choice Expands To Israel

Secure Communities: Stopping the Salafi-Jihadi Surge in Africa
Emily Estelle Perez | February 2023

The next Salafi-jihadi terror threat to the West may originate in Africa. Insurgencies linked to al Qaeda and the Islamic State have formed, re-formed, spread, and grown entrenched on the continent over the past two decades. As Salafi-jihadi groups mature, they gain capabilities that they can marshal toward both local and international goals. Counterterrorism interventions have failed to secure communities, allowing Salafi-jihadi groups to capitalize repeatedly on conflicts and grievances to establish and expand their presence.
Africa is an increasingly important theater for geopolitical competition. The same conditions that benefit Salafi-jihadi groups also create openings for malign actors like the Russian Wagner Group. US policymakers should treat community security like public health, as a service provided to civilians that benefits Americans and Africans alike and helps maintain the world order that undergirds US freedom, safety, and prosperity.
An approach focused on securing communities should not require intervening everywhere at a large scale, but rather smart investments in preventive action and refocusing counterterrorism responses. The United States should work with African partners to develop policy approaches for preventing Salafi-jihadi insurgencies from forming whenever possible and containing or rolling them back when necessary. These approaches will require changing the focus and risk tolerance of US security policy in Africa while reforming interagency coordination to facilitate this new approach.

READ MORE

Russia Against The Rest

The Next Salafi-Jihadi Wave: Capabilities, Resources, and Opportunity

The Underestimated Insurgency: African States at Risk for Salafi-Jihadi Insurgencies

The Underestimated Insurgency, Continued: Salafi-Jihadi Capabilities and Opportunities in Africa

This In Brief explains why the IMF bailout won’t be the end of Pakistan’s economic woes.

Pakistani Taliban: The Most Powerful Anti-State Actor in the Country

The Promise and Pitfalls of Underwater Domain Awareness, by Abhijit Singh

Steven B. Kamin, Carlos Arteta, and Franz Ulrich Ruch summarize the three types of shocks that drove US interest rate hikes in the past year, threatening the economic health of developing economies. Desmond Lachman warns that, contrary to popular belief among world leaders, China abandoning its zero-COVID policy is not enough to turn around its serious economic woes, which are bound substantially harm the global economy.

DOJ Reveals New Iran-backed Assassination Attempt on Iranian American Journalist

BIDEN STALLS ON BEIJING; FDD THINK TANK TACKLES IRANIAN NUKE PROGRAM;

2/15/2023

China's Balloon Reveals the Weaknesses in US National Security Decision-Making
by Lawrence A. Franklin

Iranian Nationalists Reject the Regime
It‘s no longer true that a Western military strike would lend the theocracy stronger domestic support.
Reuel Marc Gerecht | Senior Fellow

MARBURG VIRUS DOMINATES WEST AFRICA is the country’s first outbreak (WHO)

Pakistan’s power crisis.

When the Same North Korea Policy Fails Over and Over Again

Saudi Nuclear Ambitions Could Upend the Middle East
And there are steps the U.S. can take to ward them off.
Andrea Stricker | Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program Deputy Director and Research Fello

By Behnam Ben Taleblu FDD
Read Full Monograph

When will Saudi Arabia Sign Peace with Israel?
Saudi Arabia's new policy, Vision 2030, requires a newer foreign policy on Palestinians

The Case for Japanese Land Power in the First Island Chain, by Yusuke Kawachi

The Defense Industrial Base Is America’s Diplomatic Ace in the Hole. Let’s Use It.

How To Bring Innovation to America’s Nuclear Strategy
By Leonor Tomero, Defense News: "The United States should adopt a new nuclear strategy of innovation for deterrence resilience."

In China, a Web of Actors Weave Foreign Policy
By Carlo J.V. Caro, The Diplomat: "Beijing is often framed as a unitary actor, but the reality is that many actors influence policy decisions."

WINEP’s Soner Cagaptay: How will Turkey’s earthquake affect the current election cycle?

America’s Diplomatic Neglect Compounds Fighting in Somalia
Michael Rubin | 19fortyfive.co

Militant in Iran identified as al-Qaeda’s probable new chief in U.N. report

Kitaneh Fitzpatrick, Zachary Coles, Annika Ganzeveld, Jonathan Baumel, and Frederick W. Kagan write: Former Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is positioning himself to reenter the public arena after a period of relative absence. Iran-backed militias have recently withdrawn from military positions in Deir ez-Zour Province and may redeploy to Aleppo Province.[…]Iranian media outlets recirculated Parliamentarian Shahryar Heydari’s January 15 announcement that Iran will soon receive an unspecified number of Su-35 fighter jets. President Ebrahim Raisi signed 20 agreements on Sino-Iranian in Beijing on February 14. – Institute for the Study of War

Younes Abouyoub writes: This changes the geopolitical balance and the close relationship that the United States, given its long-standing dependence on energy imports, had developed with MENA countries since World War II.[…]The turn of MENA energy-exporting countries towards the Asian market, with the growing economic and political power of states like China and India, has created new opportunities for exporters to impose themselves as major players as clean energy geopolitics grow in importance, thus mitigating as much as possible the potential loss in terms of geopolitical influence induced by the energy transition. – Middle East Institute

America and China: Whose Timeline Is It, Anyway?
Dustin Walker | Breaking Defense
Attempts to answer the question of whether and when China will invade Taiwan are clouding rather than clarifying America’s national security debate. Dustin Walker explains that it is past time for policymakers and military leaders to stop speculating about China’s timeline for war and focus on America’s timeline for deterring it. American leaders must recognize that the US has entered an indefinite window of concern in which the possibility of war with China and the plausibility of American defeat are present and future realities. This indefinite threat of war collapses and confounds America's decision making when it is creating strategies to combat the near-, medium-, and long-term threats. The Pentagon needs a cohesive strategy for mitigating risk across all time frames. Learn more here. >>

Intention, Not Capacity
The White House’s new way of seeing the Iranian bomb.

The Iran Nuclear Deal Isn’t Dead
The State Department is fighting to keep it alive, even if an agreement benefits Russia and China.

Wagner’s Next Targets in Africa: Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Ivory Coast

Secure Communities: Stopping the Salafi-Jihadi Surge in Africa

U.S. Begins Forging Rare Earth Supply Chain
By Mikayla Easley, National Defense Magazine: “. . . over the last three decades, Beijing has held an iron grip on the world’s supply chain for rare earth elements such that nearly all materials — no matter where in the world they are mined — travel to China for refinement"

Opposition to L3Harris-Aerojet Deal Part of Broader Anti-Trust Trend
From Army Technology: "The U.S. defense industry being almost totally controlled by five major companies is increasingly a point of regulatory and political contention.”

US-China Trade Sets Records
Derek Scissors | AEIdeas
We’re not standing up to China, and we’re not going too far. We’re not doing anything of consequence—as 2022 trade shows, again.
Full Story

US Indo-Pacific Policy Prioritizes Security over Economics
Claude Barfield | East Asia Forum

Tyler Cowen on the State of the Great Stagnation, Pro-Progress Policy, Metascience, and More
James Pethokoukis | Faster, Please!

PAKISTAN'S DOMESTIC TERROR AGENCY HITS AGAIN; NIGERIA'S ELECTIONS; THE PRC PROVOCATION

2/2/2023

AEI’s Michael Rubin: Wagner’s next targets in Africa: Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Ivory Coast

IRAN SMUGGLES AGENTS INTO U.S. New York Post

Israel’s Illiberal Judiciary
by ronen shovalSince Israeli elites cannot control society through the political process, they have looked for other ways.
READ MORE ›

Why Do Iranians Hate the Mujahedin-e-Khalq So Much?
Michael Rubin | Washington Examiner

The Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) significantly escalated its attack campaign against the Pakistani state with a major suicide bombing targeting police in northwestern Pakistan on January 30 . READ MORE >>
SEE FULL UPDATE
Maps from the past week
See more maps tracking Salafi-Jihadi movements in Africa, the Middle East and Central/South Asia >

Emerging ‘Offset-X’ Strategy Addresses Chinese Threat

The Quiet War between Israel and Iran
Iran's Hegemonic Drive by Jonathan Schanzer
Middle East Quarterly
Winter 2023 (view PDF)
https://www.meforum.org/63850/the-quiet-war-between-israel-and-iran

The China Syndrome
It is the Communist Party’s Maoist vision that is imploding from internal contradictions, not that of Western democracy.

Festina Lente by Seth Cropsey

Air Force Intel Officer Had Hundreds of Classified and Secret Files at His Florida Home
By Thomas Novelly, Military.com: "A retired Air Force intelligence officer accepted a plea deal with federal prosecutors last year admitting to illegally possessing hundreds of top secret and classified documents, according to court records filed Friday."

In an article in the Emirati daily Al-Arab, Lebanese columnist Khairallah Khairallah discusses the deep crisis Lebanon is experiencing and states that 2022 was one of the hardest years in its history. The Arabs, he adds, regard Lebanon as a failed state and an Iranian base hostile to all the countries in the region. The world likewise ascribes no importance to Lebanon, says Khairallah, seeing it as a country that is effectively ruled by Hizbullah. He states that Lebanon’s tragedy will only end when Iran’s Rule of the Jurisprudent regime ceases to exist and the region undergoes a profound transformation. – Middle East Media Research Institute

Simon Henderson writes: With former prime minister Imran Khan actively trying to undermine the present government of Shehbaz Sharif — whose brother Nawaz was overthrown in Musharraf’s initial 1999 coup — it can be difficult to work out Pakistan’s imminent future. […]One hope may be that Saudi Arabia will write an even larger check than currently half-promised. At best that would be a temporary solution. Musharraf’s life story encapsulates Pakistan’s struggle to relate to the U.S. and stop the nation from spiraling downward. – The Hill

THE WAR AGAINST THE HAN MASTERS CONTINUES

1/29/2023

GERMANY IS HAMLET

1/29/2023

ALL IS NOT WELL IN UKRAINE

JIHADI'S EXPANSION CONTINUES THROUGHOUT AFRICA; PERU POST COUP FAIL;

1/26/2023

Turkey's Elections Are Not Just Turkey's by Burak Bekdil
Gatestone Institute
January 26, 2023
https://www.meforum.org/64081/turkey-elections-are-not-just-turkeys

Maps from the past week
See more maps tracking Salafi-Jihadi movements in Africa, the Middle East and Central/South Asia >>

Al Shabaab continued a wave of suicide attacks against Somali forces, including its first major tactical victory in central Somalia, where it overran a base used by US-trained special forces.
READ MORE >>

Malign actors are exploiting security vacuums left by the French withdrawal from Mali and Burkina Faso. The al Qaeda affiliate in the Sahel has emerged as the only viable security partner for Tuareg communities facing Islamic State violence in northeastern Mali.
READ MORE >>

The Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is increasingly taking control over terrain in Pakistan since ending a cease-fire with the government in November 2022.
READ MORE >>

SEE FULL UPDATE

TRENDS DOMINATING FOREIGN AFFAIRS

BREAKING CHINA'S HOLD; HOW TO GET AHEAD IN D.C.

1/17/2023

Breaking China’s Hold
Dan Blumenthal and Derek Scissors | Atlantic
As Beijing’s ambition of overtaking the American economy stalls, its strategy is shifting to economic coercion. The US must be prepared

Here Are the Books You Should Have Given or Received
Compiled by Josiah Johnson | AEIdeas
From wonkish policy analysis to popular history to engrossing fiction, AEI research fellows' book recommendations include something for just about everybody.

US Military's Failing Deterrence Against China
'They Are Putting Capability in the Field Faster Than We Are'by Judith Bergman

Trained To Kill: Iranian Mullahs' Militia Group

India: Care for Minorities Intact

Describing why and how the Communist Chinese regime subverts democracies around the world, Michael Beckley and Hal Brands argue that ideology, not practicality, drives these efforts. Beckley and Brands say democratic leaders need to recognize that China’s government has deeply held ideological motives to weaken democracies and promote its own authoritarian form of governance.

Following the US-Africa Leaders Forum in Washington last week, Michael Rubin identifies what’s missing in America’s Africa strategy. “None of America’s investment will matter,” writes Rubin, “if the United States has no model to which it can point on the continent to demonstrate the wisdom and benefits of African states casting their lot with America.”

How To Shift DoD’s Supply Chain Mindset From Tactical to Strategic
By Chris Frye, Defense News: “The president’s executive order on America’s supply chains and the CHIPS and Science Act underscore an urgent need to enlist emerging technology and hybrid models to enable resilient, competitive and sustainable supply chains.”

Offset-X:
How to Ensure the U.S. Military Stays Ahead of Russia and China
By James Holmes, 1945: “"“Offset-X,” an aspirational effort aimed at “achieving and maintaining military-technological superiority over all potential adversaries . . ."

How to Get Ahead in Washington: Lessons from the Renaissance and Baroque Eras, Part 2, by Iskander Rehman

Eight Thoughts on Israel’s Political Crisis
The rise of Middle Eastern culture in Israel is to be celebrated. The rise of Middle Eastern politics will make our fate identical to that of our neighbors

A New Path For Syria’s Kurds,

Deterrence Through Doctrine: The Case for a Joint Counter-Landing Doctrine, by Dylan Buck and Zach Ota

Looking Back at President Biden’s Foreign Policy, with Christopher Preble, Zack Cooper, and Melanie Marlowe

How the Defense Industry Became a Defining Feature of the U.S. Economy
By Loren Thompson, Forbes: "A hundred years ago, the United States did not have a defense industry. At least, not in the sense that term is used today."

Robert Kaplan’s The Tragic Mind Counsels Prudence and Realism in Ukraine and the South China Sea
By Francis P. Sempa, RealClearDefense: “The Defense Department’s top procurement official is taking aim at watchdog-type laws that are put in place to discourage corruption in government.”

U.S. Enabling North Korea, So South Korea Wants Nuclear Weapons

U.S. MUST BROKER STRATEGIC TRUCE BETWEEN SOUTH KOREA & JAPAN; NAVY COMPLETES NEW HYPERSONIC DRONE

1/17/2023

Defenders of the West
A new book traces common philosophical threads in the writings of Pierre Manent and Roger Scruton.

Strategery 101

MEF 2023 GEOPOLITICAL PREDICTIONS

GPF UKRAINE

Don’t Fight the Last War

HOOVER STRATEGIKA

A Maneuver-Centric Force No Longer? by Brennan Deveraux & John Thomas Pelham IV

Is the U.S. Military Becoming a Hollow Force,
and Is It Time for a Strategic Course Correction?
By Harlan Ullman, Atlantic Council: “. . . the U.S. military is headed toward becoming a twenty-first century version of the dreaded “hollow force” that plagued the nation after the Vietnam War."

Our Best War Stories
By Scott Noon Creley, Strategy Bridge: "Our Best War Stories from Midwest Press is a collection full of the most important kind of truth . . ."

Air Force Research Lab Advances "First-of-its-Kind" Armed Hypersonic Attack Drone
By Kris Osborn, Warrior Maven: "The Air Force Research Laboratory is in the early stages of developing a breakthrough-level hypersonic drone, something it appears the world has not yet seen."

Expanding Military Cooperation Between South Korea, Japan ‘A Necessity’
By John Grady, USNI News: "The Navy’s top officer stressed the need for “a forward-looking relationship” between Japan, South Korea and the United States."

Moscow Is Allegedly Preparing To Deport Some 100,000 Ukrainians to Russia
By Oleksandra Vakulina, Euronews: "Russian officials and occupation authorities may be preparing for a mass deportation of Ukrainian citizens from occupied territories to the Russian Federation."

The U.S. Army Needs Mobile, Long-Range, And Precise Artillery
By Dan Gouré, Modern War Institute: "The U.S. Army is currently investing in two of the three critical capabilities for future fires systems (artillery, rockets, and missiles)."

The U.S. Marine Corps:
Now An Access-Denial Force to Fight China?
By Tiny Tim, The War Zone: “The Defense Department’s top procurement official is taking aim at watchdog-type laws that are put in place to discourage corruption in government.”

Key Factors Behind the Improvement in Israel-India Relations in Recent Years by Jonathan Spyer
The Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security
January 9, 2023
https://www.meforum.org/64015/key-factors-behind-the-improvement-in-israel

Iran, Syria, Palestinians: A Preview of 2023 by Jonathan Spyer
The Jerusalem Post
January 7, 2023
https://www.meforum.org/64001/iran-syria-palestinians-a-preview-of-2023

The Fed Replays History: Lessons In Dealing With Inflation
by Michael D. Bordo via PolicyEdThe Federal Reserve has, at times, responded slowly to inflation, but a rules-based approach could prevent future mistakes.

John Taylor On Bloomberg Markets: The Close
interview with John B. Taylor via Bloomberg(3:30) Hoover Institution fellow John Taylor discusses the job numbers, inflation, the Taylor Rule/interest rates, and the economy.

7 Reasons High Inflation Isn’t Likely To Go Away Any Time Soon
quoting John H. Cochrane via The Federalist
As Hoover Institution economist John Cochrane said during a panel discussion, “Debt crises are like the Spanish Inquisition; no one expects them to come. If you knew they were coming, they would have already happened.”

Moscow Shakes Up Command of Its Forces in Ukraine (Again)

The PLA's People Problem // Peter W. Singer and Taylor A. Lee: China's military has long struggled to field quality personnel.
Navy Secretary Warns: If Defense Industry Can't Boost Production, Arming Both Ukraine and the US May Become 'Challenging' // Marcus Weisgerber: Carlos Del Toro's comments come as an admiral accuses weapons makers of using the pandemic as an excuse for not delivering arms on time.

Saudi Arabia Wanting to Use Domestic Uranium for Nuclear fuel. Saudi Arabian energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said Wednesday that the kingdom seeks to use domestically-sourced uranium for nuclear fuel. He said these plans follow the discovery of a diverse portfolio of uranium in Saudi Arabia, which has led the kingdom to look more at nuclear energy as a way to diversify its energy sources. Saudi Arabia says it wants to expand its nuclear program to include uranium enrichment, which will likely escalate tensions with Iran given the process’ role in nuclear weapon development. Reuters

Chinese Foreign Minister Warns Against Competition Over Africa. Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang said Wednesday that world powers should cooperate in Africa rather than use the continent as an arena for international competition. Qin’s comments came during a meeting with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in the capital of Addis Ababa. During his visit, Qin opened a headquarters for a new pan-African health body and promised more Chinese investment in Ethiopia, as well as Chinese support for reconstruction in the Tigray region. Qin is on a tour of Africa which will bring him to Egypt, Angola, Benin and Gabon over the next week. Reuters South China Morning Post

Navy’s Unmanned, AI Task Force Reaches Full Operational Capability. The US Navy says Task Force 59, a first-of-its-kind task force focused on uncrewed systems and AI, has reached full operational capability and is set to begin advanced maritime drone and surveillance operations in the Middle East. Vice Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of US Naval Forces Central Command and commander of the 5th fleet, announced the development, saying that the task force was readied over 15 months to support the Navy’s effort to build a “digital ocean” of distributed, networked digital assets. DefenseOne DefenseScoop

Partnership, Not Threats: How to Deepen U.S.-Indian Naval Cooperation, by Karambir Singh and Blake Herzinger

Nine Recommendations to Presidential Candidates on China Policy
Dan Blumenthal, Zack Cooper, and Derek Scissors | AEIdeas
Candidates for the presidency should develop a comprehensive policy on how to approach the economic, military, and political threats China poses.

Putin’s Nuclear Risk And Reward Calculation
by Jakub Grygiel via Strategika

Liberal Humanism’s Lost World
Lionel Trilling resisted an apocalyptic progressivism at odds with liberty and complexity.

SECONDARY SANCTIONS AGAINST ROUGE STATES, CAN THE FED LEARN HISTORY

1/14/2023

The Fed Replays History: Lessons in Dealing with Inflation

In a new video for Straight Arrow News, Katherine Zimmerman warns that al Qaeda and ISIS will remain threats to global security in 2023. “Al Qaeda and the Islamic State thrive in insecure environments, as does Russia, creating a dangerous convergence in their interests,” says Zimmerman.

Strategy for a New Comprehensive U.S. Policy on Iran
Mark Dubowitz and Orde Kittrie — FDD Monograph
The Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) has developed a comprehensive plan for American policymakers and allies to support the Iranian people and confront the ongoing threats from the Islamic Republic of Iran. The strategy explains how Washington can deploy multiple elements of national power, providing specific and actionable recommendations for relevant agencies of the U.S. government. Read more

‘Enough Is Enough’: What Blinken Should Tell Turkey’s Cavusoglu
Sinan Ciddi — The National Interest

The State of US’ India policy

Cleo Paskal — The Sunday Guardian

Security Challenges Facing the New Israeli Government
Jacob Nagel — The Jerusalem Strategic Tribune

STATE BOUNTY ON ISIS COMMANDER EAST AFRICA; CHINA'S PLA MODERNIZATION EFFORTS INCLUDING NUCLEAR DEVELOPMENTS & MOSCOW CHANGES LEADERSHIP IN UKRAINE WAR

1/13/2023

State places $10 million bounty on Kenyan Shabaab commander

Deteriorating relationships between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and local communities will likely advantage the Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) as it seeks to expand its shadow governance in eastern Syria.     READ MORE >>

Al Shabaab, al Qaeda’s affiliate in Somalia, is attempting to push back an effort by Somali government and local forces to oust the group from positions in central Somalia. Somali forces, with US support, have removed al Shabaab from several strongholds in central and south-central Somalia.  READ MORE >>

An escalating insurgency in Pakistan is straining relations between the Pakistani government and the Taliban-led government in Afghanistan. The Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has increased attacks in Pakistan since November 2022.  READ MORE >>

SEE FULL UPDATE

Maps from the past week
See more maps tracking Salafi-Jihadi movements in Africa, the Middle East and Central/South Asia >>

China beyond minimum deterrence; reading Beijing's nuclear developments
China’s latest reported upgrades and apparent additions to its submarine-launched and land-based strategic nuclear-armed missile forces should significantly boost their capabilities but will likely also pose added challenges on the arms control front.
READ MORE

China’s Military Modernisation: Will the People’s Liberation Army complete its reforms?
The People's Liberation Army's modernisation programme has seen the commissioning of some impressive military platforms and systems since 2021, but progress in institutional reform and restructuring is less obvious and China's leaders do not yet have complete confidence in their military's war-fighting capabilities.
READ MORE

Trends That Will Define the Coming Years
The world is always changing, but some changes are more important than others. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will likely be remembered as the start of a new era in geoeconomics. The uncertainty and tit-for-tat measures kicked off an energy crisis. And the war renewed focus on the growing divide between the West and a nascent revisionist bloc led by China and Russia. It is difficult to see a path back to the status quo ante bellum, but several major trends that will define the next decade have become clear. They include deglobalization, stagflation and the bursting of the tech bubble.

The Arc of a Covenant, with Walter Russell Mead

Japan’s Shift to War Footing, by Zack Cooper and Eric Sayers

Partnership, Not Threats: How to Deepen U.S.-Indian Naval Cooperation, by Karambir Singh and Blake Herzinger

In case you missed it Wednesday, Russia just changed the commander of its Ukraine invasion, which is a move the British military called “a significant development in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s approach to managing the war.” They also described it as “an indicator of the increasing seriousness of the situation Russia is facing, and a clear acknowledgement that the campaign is falling short of Russia’s strategic goals.”

The new commander is Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov; and the prior war commander, Gen. Sergei Surovikin, is now one of three deputies under Gerasimov in the new role. “Surovikin has been widely praised” by Russian ultranationalists “for his championing of a more realistic approach” to the invasion and occupation of Ukraine. But “As a now deputy commander, his authority and influence is almost certainly hugely reduced,” the Brits say.

Wonk reax: Russia-watcher Mark Galeotti of the UK-based Royal United Services Institute said the new moves provide “Confirmation, if we needed it, that there will be serious offensives coming,” likely in the spring; “and that even Putin recognises that poor coordination has been an issue” for his invading forces. For Gerasimov, the new posting “is a kind of demotion, or at least the most poisoned of chalices,” Galeotti said. Success in the war is “now on him, and I suspect Putin has unrealistic expectations again.”

However, Galeotti cautioned, “In many ways, I don't think Moscow's strategy hinges anyway on battlefield victory; it's more about politics.” That is to say, Putin seems most intent “demonstrating to the West that Russia is in this for the long haul, and hoping that we will lose the will and unity to continue to support Kyiv,” according to Galeotti—who predicted “Putin will be disappointed, but he has to believe [that Ukraine’s supporters will peel away over time]; it’s his only real shot at some kind of victory.”

Wonk reax #2: “With Gerasimov in charge, if this is indeed permanent, I think the [possibility] of the Russians asking their tired force to do something that it cannot handle rises exponentially,” said Dara Massicot of the Washington-based RAND Corporation. “With this change, I view this as a power struggle that has resolved in favor of Shoygu/Gerasimov,” who have years of experience inside the Kremlin. After all, Massicot writes, “Seniors in Moscow are clingingly fiercely to the status quo and also [the] Soviet past. [It’s] important to keep in mind that they default to looking inwards and backwards even when it [leads] them to poor outcomes.”

CENTCOM TURNS 40; AEI'S AFRICA JIHADI REPORT

1/4/2023

Netanyahu: The Unexpected Moderate

More Foreign Policy Confusion

AEI AFRICA READ THE LATEST EDITION HERE
The Underestimated Insurgency, Continued: Salafi-Jihadi Capabilities and Opportunities in Africa

U.S. offers $10 million bounty for top Shabaab military commander

Add Israel to the Combined Maritime Forces and its Red Sea task force

Victor Davis Hanson: There Is ‘Consequential Legislation’ In This Omnibus Bill

Fiscal-Monetary Interaction

Explainer: The Jihadi Threat In 2022

Impending COVID Surge Expected to Tarnish Xi Jinping’s Image at Home

REGIONAL EMBRACE OF SYRIA BAD NEWS

Guess who just turned 40? CENTCOM, the U.S. military's combatant command that focuses on developments throughout the Middle East. The Tampa-based command is the result of what's known as the "Carter doctrine," stemming from POTUS39 Jimmy Carter's time in the White House. The doctrine itself was a response to the Soviet Union's Afghanistan invasion in late 1979; but Carter's directive to focus exclusively on the Middle East was also informed by the global energy shocks of the 1970s, which threw much of the West's petroleum sources into turmoil and uncertainty, rattling the economies of the U.S. and many of its Israel-supporting allies along the way.
"Let our position be absolutely clear," Carter said in January 1980; "An attempt by any outside force to gain control of the Persian Gulf region will be regarded as an assault on the vital interests of the United States of America, and such an assault will be repelled by any means necessary, including military force."
"We have internal threats within the region, such as the Iran-Iraq war at this time," Army Lt. Gen. Robert Kingston, CENTCOM's first commander, said upon taking the helm. "And then we also have the threat of external aggression, and we saw it just recently in 1979 with the Russian invasion of Afghanistan…This emphasizes their increased capability and will to enforce Russian interests outside of their current territory."
And this 40-year-old line may sound familiar: "We have what we call an 'over-the-horizon' concept, which my forces and headquarters, of course, would be invited in by a host nation or nations," Kingston explained in that same archival clip CENTCOM shared on Twitter on Tuesday. "We'd be invited in for specific purposes to assist militarily; when that is accomplished, we will return to the continental United States in as expeditious a manner as possible," Kingston said.
Meanwhile in Syria: Unknown militants fired two rockets toward U.S.-led coalition troops at Mission Support Site Conoco, in the northeastern part of the country, on Wednesday. It happened at 9 a.m. local time; fortunately, no one was hurt and no property was damaged either, according to CENTCOM officials. Coalition-backed Syrian Democratic Forces allegedly found an unlaunched third rocket at the launch site; but that's about all CENTCOM said about the incident. Read the rest, here.

Around Bakhmut, Ukrainian forces built defensive lines "every 10 meters," and Russian troops are bogged down trying to clear the town "building-by-building," according to Yevgeny Prigozhin, owner of the Wagner Group, whose mercenaries and growing ranks of convicts have been trying to chip away at Bakhmut since May.
Reax: "Prigozhin is likely setting information conditions to blame Wagner Group's failure to take Bakhmut on the Russian Ministry of Defense or the Russian industrial base," analysts at the Institute for the Study of War wrote in their latest assessment.

Senior White House Official: Wagner Mercenaries More 'Aggressive' Than Russian Military // Patrick Tucker: The Wagner group is doing what the regular Russian military can't. But it's still losing.

This analysis examines the relationships and allegiances that shape interactions between armed groups in southern Yemen, specifically in Abyan, Aden, Dhaleh, and Lahij governorates. These southern Yemeni armed groups not only fight the Iran-aligned Houthi movement but also support ongoing US-backed counterterrorism efforts against al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and the Islamic State in Yemen (IS-Yemen).
READ HERE

US disengagement from Saudi Arabia and the UAE will not end the war in Yemen, but it will damage US relations with Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
READ HERE

A regularly updated review of both Yemen and the Horn of Africa covering topics related to security, governance, and militant activity.
READ HERE

Most Read War On The Rocks Articles of 2022, by WOTR Staff

Turkey’s Russian Red Light in Syria, by Sam Heller

Will a Spark in Jordan Ignite the Kingdom? by Seth J. Frantzman
The Jerusalem Post
December 18, 2022
https://www.meforum.org/63921/will-a-spark-in-jordan-ignite-the-kingdom

The Ghosts of Kennan
By Fredrik Logevall, Foreign Affairs: "Lessons From the Start of a Cold War.”

After the Civil War, another conflict between two peoples from different worlds would determine the fate of the American continent.
READ MORE ›

A sound constitution encoded with classical liberal principles is an anchor for society—one that is hard to haul away and destroy.
READ MORE ›

Emanuele Ottolenghi on Iranian Operations in Latin America by Marilyn Stern
Middle East Forum Webinar
December 23, 2022
https://www.meforum.org/63941/emanuele-ottolenghi-on-iranian-operations-in

Why bilateralism is key to any Saudi-Israeli agreement

Strategery 101

Knesset Israel Victory Caucus

Psychological Capabilities for Resilience, by Shannon Houck

Why the U.S. Isn’t Ready for a Fight in the Indo-Pacific
By Phelim Kine & Lara Seligman, Politico: “Pentagon’s promise to shore up its forces in the Pacific in 2023 is meeting skepticism.”

U.S., INDO-PACIFIC:
U.S. Military to Transform Indo-Pacific Force Posture in 2023
By Christopher Woody, Business Insider: “The U.S. military will have a "transformative" year in Asia in 2023."

How U.S. Can Compete With China in Latin America
By R. Evan Ellis, National Defense Magazine: “Latin America’s latest “turn to the left” is both broader than the region’s last “pink tide,” and arguably more problematic for the United States in strategic terms . . .”

China Next Door: How the CCP is Reshaping Latin America
By Steven Arango, CIMSEC: “. . . the United States has treated Latin America with “benign neglect.””

Walk like an Israeli

Erdogan's Syrian Gambit

Erdogan’s Coming U-Turn on Syria

Erdoğan Seeks Rapprochement with Assad, under Russian Auspices by Jonathan Spyer
The Jerusalem Post
December 23, 2022
https://www.meforum.org/63939/erdogan-seeks-rapprochement-with-assad

Obama’s Anti-Imperialist Fantasy Bears Bitter Fruit

How to Win Friends and Choke China’s Chip Supply

Driven to Debt

Leveraging U.S. Capital Markets to Support the Future Industrial Network, by Joseph L. Votel, Francis A. Finelli, and Samuel Cole

BIDEN WHITE HOUSE LOST ON FOREIGN POLICY

12/16/2022

How to Get Ahead in Washington: Lessons from the Renaissance and Baroque Eras, Party 1,
by Iskander Rehman

Turkey’s Zero Sum Foreign Policy, by Aaron Stei

Read Full Tracker Year in Review

Biden's Foreign Policy: A Midterm Assessment

U.S., ISRAEL:
The U.S.-Israel Operations-Technology Working Group Gets Busy
By Bradley Bowman, Foundation for Defense of Democracies: " If both governments continue to seize the opportunity and Congress holds the OTWG accountable for tangible results, the working group can help ensure that American and Israeli warfighters do not confront adversaries wielding more sophisticated weapons."

Ten Ways Hypersonic Weapons Can Strengthen Strategic Deterrence
By Loren Thompson, Forbes: "The Department of Defense is funding at least eight programs aimed at equipping each of the military departments with hypersonic weapons by the end of the decade."

The Effectiveness of an Air War
By George Friedman, Geopolitical Futures: "The Russians have initiated a concentrated air attack on Ukraine focused on the use of drones. The target . . ."

Just How Radioactive Are Low-Yield Nuclear Weapons?
By Adam Lowther, James Petrosky, James Ragland & Robyn Hutchins, The War Zone: “With Russia making nuclear threats with the focus on so-called ‘battlefield’ nukes, experts examine the potential effects of these weapons."

The Eyes of the Fleet:
Distributed Maritime Operations in the First Island Chain
By Samuel Heenan Winegar, Proceedings: “In the event of a future conflict with China, sensors distributed throughout the first island chain would offer a clear benefit to the United States and its allies."

Russia Acknowledges a Prolonged War:
What Does That Mean?
By Stephen Blank, RealClearDefense: "Vladimir Putin has now acknowledged that Russia is fighting a protracted war in Ukraine."

Why Is Blinken Hiding Report on Global Terrorist Threats? by A.J. Caschetta
National Review
January 3, 2023
https://www.meforum.org/63956/why-is-blinken-hiding-report-on-global-terrorist

CHINA IN RETREAT

12/7/2022

ETHIOPIA IS THE AFRICAN HORN; BEIJING HITS THE SOFT U.S. UNDERBELLY

11/28/2022

NIGERIA VOTES; THE PRC GOES WITH XI AGAIN; WOMEN TAKE ON THE MULLAHS OF IRAN

11/11/2022

THE WEST IN FULL RETREAT. . . ISRAEL GOES TO THE POLLS AGAIN FOR KING BIBI

11/2/2022

ISLAMISM, THE AFRICAN CONTINENT & GLOBAL ENGLAND A FINANCIAL MESS

10/30/2022

CHINA SEEKS TO BREAK OUT OF FIRST ISLAND CHAIN; NIGERIAN VOTE EMERGING ON THE LONG WAR

10/24/2022

U.S. Grand Strategy: The Case For Realism

Analysis: Al Qaeda ideologue calls for jihad in Sudan, provides guideline

JIHADI'S HIT AGAIN IN SOMALIA

10/3/2022

Xi Jinping’s Strategy of Conflict
By Dan Blumenthal & Cindy Chen, 1945: "As the People’s Republic of China marks its 20th party congress this month, Chinese President Xi Jinping is poised to shepherd both the Chinese Communist Party and the nation into a new and dangerous era."

Why Biden’s National Security Strategy Is Destined to Fail
By Mackenzie Eaglen, 1945: "The Biden administration’s newly released National Security Strategy (NSS) calls for a military that can essentially do it all – from “backstopping diplomacy, confronting aggression, deterring conflict,” to fighting and winning the nation’s wars."

Truth or consequences The Saudi crown prince has some legitimate grievances

Gaza-Based Factions Claim to Have Presence in the West Bank

Iranian Shahed-136 Drones Increase Russian Strike Capacity and Lethality in Ukraine

Permanent Rupture: The European-Russian Energy Relationship Has Ended with Nord Stream, by Emily Holland

Dire conditions of the Russian Army. This video is from Russian social media & was filmed by one of the mobilized who was sent to Omsk. They spend days & nights in the open field, eat what they have & drink. No command, no uniform, no barracks, no tents, no sleeping bags. pic.twitter.com/HWmDVa5EHV
— Viktor Kovalenko (@MrKovalenko) October 3, 2022

Read Tracker

ITALIAN ELECTION, WHAT IT MEANS

U.S. military kills wanted Shabaab leader in airstrike in Somalia

Iraq’s political class must address 'crisis of trust,' says PM
In an exclusive interview, Mustafa al-Kadhimi also discusses Iraq’s shift to regional hub for diplomacy and economic progress despite strong political headwinds.

Latest PRO Memo: NEOM’s ambitious concepts present funding, feasibility challenges for Saudi Arabia
Robert Mogielnicki examines the likely scenarios for the trajectory of Saudi Arabia's planned futuristic megacity.

Arrest of officials, politicians in Tunisia raises controversy
Tunisian authorities arrested a number of officials linked to Ennahda, the main opposing party to President Kais Saied, in connection with the deportation of Tunisians to fight in Syria.

IRANIAN LEADERSHIP ON DEATHBED; CHINA SEEKS TO BUILD INDO'PACIFIC STATION POST IN CENTRAL AMERICA

9/13/2022

Could America Go the Way of the Soviet Union? | The New York Sun https://t.co/wd7F8vju3P
— Judy Shelton (@judyshel) September 5, 2022

Until He Ran Out of Fight: How Gorbachev’s Convictions Shaped the End of the Cold War
, by James Graham Wilson

Rumors Are Swirling That Iran’s Khamenei Is Near Death. Time to Pause Nuke Negotiations.
Michael Rubin | 19fortyfive.com

Arabs to Biden: Do Not Sign the Iran Deal, It Will Start a War

The US Should Support the Tigray Defense Forces
Michael Rubin | 19fortyfive.com

The Threat of Terror at Home and Abroad
Katherine Zimmerman | Council on Foreign Relations

New Iran Deal Would Fuel Hezbollah’s Precision-Guided Munitions

National Security Threat: China's Eyes in America

Iraq heading for civil war; US must not take advantag

A New Iran Deal Would Empower Hamas

Invoking the major questions doctrine is the wrong way to enforce nondelegation concerns.
READ MORE ›

Gradually and Then Suddenly: Explaining the Navy’s Strategic Bankruptcy, by Christopher Dougherty ~ from Doyle Hodges

Forming the Grand Strategist According to Shakespeare

China Seeks ‘Naval Outpost’ in Nicaragua To Threaten U.S., Taiwan Warns
By Joel Gehrke, Washington Examiner: "China aspires to open a “naval outpost” in Nicaragua as part of a plan to dominate the Indo-Pacific, Taiwan has warned."

Opposite Sides of the COIN:
Understanding Unlikely Insurgent Successes and Failures
By Joshua Damir, Strategy Bridge: "There appears little continuity in what leads insurgents to victory and what results instead in their failure."

Time to Rethink America’s Nuclear Strategy
By Francis J. Gavin, Foreign Affairs: "How to Learn the Right Lessons From the Cold War"

Funding the Indo-Pacific Pivot
By Rob Wittman, War on the Rocks: ". . . U.S. efforts to truly align resources accordingly have been frustrated since President Barack Obama’s administration first acknowledged that a shift was required."

Muqtada al-Sadr Retires: What Next in Iraq? by Seth J. Frantzman
The Jerusalem Post
August 30, 2022
https://www.meforum.org/63512/muqtada-al-sadr-retires-what-next-in-iraq

Shocked to discover just now this rather flattering review of my 1994 book published on the website of the Minneapolis Fed. https://t.co/f89G2vxPDE
— Judy Shelton (@judyshel) September 4, 2022