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NORTH AMERICA 

ROCKETS HIT BAGHDAD WHILE ISRAEL PERMITS JEWS TO TRAVEL TO RIYADH?

1/27/2020

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Rockets hit US Embassy in Baghdad 
Three rockets struck the US Embassy in Baghdad’s Green Zone on Sunday, wounding one person in the first known direct hit inside the heavily fortified compound. Iraqi leaders condemned the incident and called for a quick investigation. Meanwhile, security forces shot at anti-government protesters in Baghdad over the weekend, killing at least one person and injuring dozens, while unidentified militiamen burned sit-in tents in the southern city of Nasiriya. Iraq has increasingly become a battleground between Iran and United States since after the assassination of Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani earlier this month, adding fuel to the unrest the country has witnessed since mass protests erupted in October.
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washingtonpost.com

Israel allows citizens to travel to Saudi Arabia 
Israel's Interior Minister Aryeh Deri signed an order on Sunday allowing Israelis to travel to Saudi Arabia in the latest sign of warming relations with the Gulf Arab monarchies. The new rules allow travel to Saudi Arabia for religious pilgrimages or for business trips of up to 90 days. Travelers will need an invitation from a Saudi official.
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haaretz.com
Saudi Arabia denies Israel's claim that Israelis can now visit the kingdom 
Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan denied Monday that Israeli citizens can enter the kingdom after Israel's Interior Minister Aryeh Deri announced Sunday that they can now travel to Saudi Arabia for religious pilgrimages and business trips. “Our policy is fixed. We do not have relations with the State of Israel, and Israeli passport holders cannot visit the kingdom at the current time,” Prince Faisal told CNN. He added that an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement must be reached first, before discussing relations with Israel.
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arabnews.co
  • "Nukes for the Ayatollah," Clifford D. May featuring Andrea Stricker and Behnam Ben Taleblu, FDD's Foreign Podicy
  • "U.S. Maximum Pressure Campaign Should Target Tehran Stock Exchange and Khamenei’s Business Empire," Saeed Ghasseminejad, FDD Policy Brief
  • "Huawei endangers Western values," Annie Fixler and Mikhael Smits, The Hill
Slain Iranian general Qassim Solemaini’s militias are secretly fighting in Syria’s final rebel stronghold, radio communications leaked to the Telegraph show. The rare recordings reveal how Iranian soldiers and Afghan mercenaries are directing military operations in Idlib, northwest Syria, in a battle they had promised not to take part in during peace talks. – Telegraph
Jeremy Hodge writes: Syrian activists report that the Assad regime has launched its most intense assault since the beginning of the war almost nine years ago. The target is Idlib, the last opposition holdout in northwestern Syria. All indicators suggest that the campaign will produce a new humanitarian disaster and be the beginning of a final confrontation between the Syrian National Army (SNA)—an alliance of Turkish-backed armed opposition forces—and Russian-Iranian-backed pro-Assad units. – Daily Beast
WINEP’s Michael Knights: Moqtada al-Sadr and the international coalition: common ground and fault lines
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RUSSIA LEADS FROM BEHIND IN LIBYA, WHILE ASSAD AND HIFTER MOVES ON TO CONSOLIDATE & PUTIN'S LONG GOODBYE; israel and lebanon begin new governments

1/25/2020

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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan lobbed a rare direct attack at the emirate of Abu Dhabi over its backing of Khalifa Haftar and the Russian mercenaries fighting on his behalf in Libya. – Bloomberg
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Turkey is pushing a new “road map” for Libya, focusing on a conflict 1,000 km from Ankara, while a few kilometers from Turkey’s border refugees are being driven from their homes in Idlib by a Moscow-backed Syrian offensive. – Jerusalem Post
Aaron Y. Zelin writes: For all the reasons laid out here, Washington should continue to engage Tunis in addressing the range of jihadist challenges it faces. […]To thwart the reemergence of ISL, meanwhile, the United States should continue to coordinate airstrikes and share intelligence with its partners in Libya. This will help break up ISL camps and prevent an Iraq- or Syria-style resurgence, which could cut into Tunisia’s existing progress. Setting aside these challenges, the United States should publicly recognize and applaud Tunisia’s successes, thereby encouraging regional stability and stronger relations in areas of mutual interest. – Washington Institute
With Putin's Proposed Changes, Russia Begins Its Transition to One-Party Rule
WINEP’s Anna Borshchevskaya: Russia’s growing interests in Libya
Russia’s 'leading from behind' strategy on Libya
 Russia’s Libya policy is less about Libya and more about Europe, hence Moscow’s preference to let the Europeans take the public lead on the conflict.
 
What's in store for Iraq's PMU after death of top commander?
 The Popular Mobilization Units will face fragmentation and division after the assassination of Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, who was the backbone of the Iran-backed organization.
 
Algeria strives to regain prominence as world powers debate Libya's future
 Despite Algeria's best efforts, nine years of conflict in neighboring Libya have essentially brought an international proxy war to Algiers' doorstep.
Libya’s eastern forces advance toward Misrata 
Heavy clashes between Libya’s rival forces erupted Sunday as troops loyal to eastern military strongman Khalifa Hifter advanced toward the city of Misrata, threatening a shaky cease-fire. The fighting comes amid growing international diplomacy to uphold a lasting cease-fire in Libya, where Hifter has led a monthslong assault against the UN-backed government in Tripoli.
On Sunday, Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune hosted his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan to discuss the situation in Libya. At a press conference with Tebboune, Erdogan said Turkey is committed to stand by the UN-backed government in Libya, whose instability threatens Algeria. Erdogan next travels to Gambia and Senegal as part of a three-nation African tour.
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aljazeera.com
​Assad’s forces inch closer to key town in Idlib 
Bashar al-Assad’s forces reached the outskirts of a key rebel-held town on Sunday, after taking control of several towns in the northwestern province of Idlib. Pro-regime media said government forces are “just around the corner” of Maaret al-Numan, through which passes a major highway linking Damascus to Aleppo. The regime’s renewed push, backed by Russian airstrikes, comes despite a Russian-Turkish cease-fire in the country’s last rebel stronghold.
Separately, at least seven people were killed and more than 20 others injured in a car bomb Sunday in the city of Azaz in northern Syria, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said. The attack occurred in a busy area of the city, which is under the control of Turkish-backed rebels. No party has claimed responsibility for the attack.
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gulftoday.ae

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, greeted to a fanfare arrival Sunday in Algiers, said the North African nation is “important for the stability of the region,” an apparent bow to Algerian efforts to play a key role in unwinding chaos in neighboring Libya. – Associated Press

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Friday urged international pressure to force the head of Libya’s eastern-based forces to abide by a tentative truce and said Turkey was determined to continue supporting Libya’s U.N.-backed government. – Associated Press
Rachel Avraham writes: One might ponder, how will all of this affect the State of Israel?  Over the short run, it won’t affect Israel too much. Hezbollah is too busy consolidating power in Lebanon and trying to gain influence in Iraq in order to be bothered with Israel. Nevertheless, even though Hezbollah will be busy with other matters over the short run, that does not mean that Hezbollah does not pose a long-term strategic threat to Israel. […]For this reason, Israel should act now against Hezbollah when they are weak instead of waiting for them to attack once they get their house in order. – Arutz Sheva
Hanin Ghaddar and Matthew Levitt write: Against the backdrop of three months of political and economic protests, Lebanese politicians appear to have reached a deal establishing a nominally technocratic government in Beirut. […]The formation of a new Lebanese government has been a central demand of the international community and a necessary precondition for any international aid. But that is not enough. The government must quickly take action to fight corruption and enhance transparency. For a country that has run on corruption and political patronage, this will be a very heavy lift. – The Hill
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Nathali Goulet writes: Lebanon’s stability concerns us all because it is an essential part of the stability of the Middle East — which is why the international community must place itself at the disposal of the new Prime Minister and ensure at the first request the implementation of its policy for recovery of stolen and misappropriated assets. – The Hill
Michael Rubin writes: Perhaps with Belgium taking a fresh look at the PKK, it is time for the United States also to reconsider the evidence that led to the PKK’s terror designation under U.S. law. It is now clear that Turkish evidence is not reliable and is often fabricated. Further, the circumstances of PKK designation in 1997 — thirteen years after its insurgency began and apparently timed to be a sweetener to a Clinton administration arms sale to Turkey — suggest that its original designation is more diplomatic than objective. – Washington Examiner
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MAPPING IRAN'S BATTLE PLANS; GRAY ZONES MULTIPLY:  US ENEMIES WAGE GLOBAL WAR & WHY MARKETS MATTER FOR THE LONG WAR

1/25/2020

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Grey zone is the new black
​Too many smart people don’t grasp that a war is being waged against us
Propeller of Growth
Allison Schrager, City Journal
Technology and globalization are changing the nature of work and commerce, displacing workers, and altering the way of life for many people. In response to this uncertain economic environment, policymakers from both parties have become preoccupied with reducing risk. But many of their risk-management proposals go too far, address the wrong sources of risk, and would undermine America’s economic leadership. Read more here..
No market exists in a social vacuum, and hardly any market exists in a political vacuum. 
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Iran’s Reserve of Last Resort:
Uncovering the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Ground Forces Order of Battle
By Fred Kagan, AEI: "Qassem Soleimani’s death, the prospect of further U.S.-Iranian military escalation, and the reemer­gence of large protests in Iran in recent months raise the question of Iran’s capacity to conduct military operations beyond its borders while suppressing dis­sent within them."
The end of Obama’s Middle East
Matthew Continetti | Commentary
Trump's killing of Qassem Soleimani was the death knell for the yearslong failure of Obama's attempted rapprochement with the Iranian regime.
The arc of America’s history is bent by institutions  
Timothy P. Carney | Washington Examiner
Trump rejects the fake separation between Iran and its militias
​No longer playing Iran's game
HOOVER DIGEST ISSUE peruse the entire issue on the Hoover website.
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ILLICIT GOLD TRADE DOMINATES TRANS-SAHEL ISLAMISM & IRAN'S GANG WARFARE MOVES TO SYRIA

1/24/2020

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Despite tentative government efforts to wrestle parts of the gold industry away from Sudan’s security services and back under state or private control, questions remain about whether Sudan can truly transition to democracy while the politically powerful RSF run a parallel economy all of their own. – The Guardian
America Shouldn’t Abandon Its Allies in the Sahel by Olivier-Rémy Bel
Olivier-Rémy Bel writes: Thus, a limited but critical American investment — airlift and surveillance assets — would go a long way towards ensuring that Europe remains both a willing and able ally in the great-power game. That investment needs not be endless. Europeans are stepping up. France purchased C-130J transport aircraft and Reaper drones to fill capability gaps. Denmark and the United Kingdom have sent lift helicopters. European forces, from Estonia to Germany, the Czech Republic to Spain, Finland to Portugal, are deploying in the Sahel to an unprecedented extent, either in Barkhane, the EU’s training mission, or the UN stabilization mission. – War on the Rocks
Sanctioned by the West and spurned by China, Zimbabwe has turned to the United Arab Emirates in its latest bid to find a savior that can arrest the collapse of its economy. Zimbabwe’s government has approached the U.A.E. in hopes of selling a stake in its national oil company, according to three company and government officials familiar with the plan. It also wants companies in the U.A.E. to buy more of its gold, they said. – Bloomberg
  • The Libya Conflict
  • The Salafi-Jihadi Movement in West Africa
  • The Salafi-Jihadi Movement in East Africa
https://www.cardinalresources.com.au
 Algeria seeks coordination with neighbors on Libya 
Algeria hosted officials from Libya’s neighbors on Thursday to discuss a fragile truce in the country and ways to limit foreign influence. The meeting aimed to strengthen “coordination between countries neighboring Libya and international players to accompany Libyans in reviving the political settlement process,” the Algerian government said. Foreign ministers from Egypt, Tunisia, Chad, Niger, Sudan and Mali attended the meeting, as well as Germany’s Foreign Minister Heiko Maas. Berlin over the weekend hosted a summit to discuss the situation in Libya, where eastern military strongman Khalifa Hifter is leading a monthslong assault against the UN-backed government in Tripoli.
Separately, the Libyan capital’s only operational airport resumed flights on Thursday, one day after shutting down due to a rocket attack. The Mitiga airport has been repeatedly hit since the start of Hifter’s offensive last April.
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alaraby.co.uk
Rwanda and neighboring countries in Africa’s Great Lakes region are at risk of worsening violence if the different countries back rival rebel forces to destabilize each other, according to a report by the International Crisis Group. – Bloomberg 

The Sahel is facing an unprecedented wave of violence, with more than 4,000 deaths reported last year, and a bloody start to 2020. – The Guardian 
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Robert Burns, Abdi Guled and Cara Anna write: Islamic extremists are already exploiting possible U.S. military cuts in Africa that have caused a rare bipartisan outcry in Washington, with lawmakers stressing the need to counter China and Russia and contain a growing threat from Islamic State group affiliates. […]The Pentagon’s possible reduction of U.S. troops in Africa is part of a worldwide review by Defense Secretary Mark Esper, who is looking for ways to tighten the focus on China and Russia. It is not known when a decision will be announced, but officials say Esper has made clear the U.S. will not withdraw from Africa entirely. – Associated Press 
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MOSCOW BROKERS LIBYAN DEAL:  IMPACT ON TURKEY, UAE & EGYPTIAN REGIONAL AMBITIONS

1/13/2020

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SDF commander says Kurds ready for dialogue if Ankara is sincere
 In an exclusive interview with Al-Monitor in northeast Syria, General Mazlum Kobane spoke on a range of issues including prospects for reviving dialogue with Turkey, President Donald Trump's decision to withdraw US troops from Syria and the impact of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani's killing in Iraq.
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Turkish Voters – and Putin – Will Restrain Erdogan’s Libya Ambitions
What we need to learn about the Mideast
Michael Rubin | New York Daily News
Libya’s warring sides to sign cease-fire deal in Moscow 
The leaders of Libya’s warring parties are expected to arrive in Moscow today to sign a cease-fire agreement brokered by Russia and Turkey. The internationally recognized government in Tripoli and forces loyal to eastern military strongman Khalifa Hifter over the weekend accepted the cease-fire that went into effect on Sunday, despite reports of violations by both sides. Russia and Turkey, which support opposing sides in the conflict, have stepped up diplomatic efforts in recent weeks to end Hifter's monthslong offensive against Tripoli. Russian mercenaries back Hifter while Turkey has sent troops to support the beleaguered UN-backed Government of National Accord. Representatives of the United Arab Emirates and Egypt, which support Hifter, are also expected to attend the talks as observers.
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al-monitor.com
Jonathan Spyer is a Middle East analyst, author and journalist specializing in the Levant and Iraq. He is the director of the Middle East Center for Reporting and Analysis (MECRA),  a  Research Fellow at the Jerusalem Center for Strategy and Security and a Fellow at the Middle East Forum.
Relevant Articles:
·         
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-01-15/syrias-kurdish-forces-hold-back-tides
·    https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/01/iraq-kurdistan-adel-abdul-mahdi-us-troops-isis.html
·         https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/op-eds/counter-iran-with-an-independent-kurdistan
·         https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/iraqs-sunnis-and-kurds-must-pick-side-iran-us-battle
·         https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20200114-report-syria-kurdish-politician-executed-by-turkey-backed-militia/
·         https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/u-s-restarts-counter-isis-operations-paused-after-soleimani-killing-n1116851
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HOW CHINA SUPPORTS IRAN FOR THE LONG GAME

1/11/2020

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Robotics are making Iran’s military more dangerous than ever
Michael Rubin | The National Interes
Iran can play the long game
Kenneth Pollack | RealClearWorld
Iran responded to the killing of Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani exactly as it said it would, with an overt military strike against a pair of American military targets. While the strike was perfunctory and mostly painless for the United States, we should not assume Iran’s retaliation is over.
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IRAN MAKES MASSIVE STRATEGIC BLUNDERS

1/11/2020

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WHY DOES AUSTRALIA BURN

1/11/2020

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MODI WALKS INDIAN TIGHT ROPE:  CITIZENSHIP ACT

1/11/2020

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India-Bangladesh on a diplomatic tightropeFor the current Bangladeshi regime, maintaining the stance that the formation of the National Register of Citizens (NRC) and the subsequent enactment of the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) are India’s “internal matter” has become an increasingly difficult task. Sheikh Hasina’s government has been having a hard time assuaging the increasing number of opposing voices inside the country, who termed her reaction toward India’s controversial actions as “soft.” Faisal Mahmud has the story.
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HOW WEAK STATES IN LATIN AMERICA USE NARCO-TERROR TACTICS

1/11/2020

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SOUTH ASIA AND AFRICA:  GROUND ZERO FOR JIHADISM & IRAN'S STRATEGIC INTENT

1/11/2020

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The Iraq Uprising: Where Does It Go From Here?
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Nile Bowie here examines how global markets and oil prices have whipsawed over the last few days as Iran’s retaliatory strikes against American military bases in Iraq were followed by conciliatory statements from US President Donald Trump and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, that signaled, at least for now, that the hostilities will not spiral into full-blown war.

Christina Lin explores how China might have taken sides with Iran if all-out war had broken out. Joint war games, held at the end of December in the Gulf of Oman, sent a clear signal to the US, argues Lin, that “Iran is not isolated and has powerful allies.”

However, Stephen Bryen argues that the notion of any real military alliance among China, Russia and Iran is “questionable” and talk of any form of combined Chinese and Russian military intervention in Iran remains “unrealistic.” “Legally speaking,” writes Bryen, “neither Russia nor China has a security agreement or defense treaty with Iran.”

For MK Bhadrakumar, these military exercises ultimately “gained little” for Iran but instead helped Moscow and Beijing more, by allowing them “to thumb their noses at Washington.”

Indeed, as Christina Lin points out, the exercises may have been an attempt by Beijing and Moscow to sully American prestige in the Middle East but neither party wants all-out war. Beijing “needs Mideast stability to pursue the Belt and Road Initiative Eurasian integration plan,” writes Lin. “It has large stakes in Iran’s stability: It is the largest buyer of Iranian oil, China is Iran’s largest trading partner, and Iran is a key geographic node for the BRI.”
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Lin says China has tried to balance its relationship with Saudi Arabia and Iran in the Middle East and set up a firewall between the two, “although Iran is more significant in China’s strategic calculus given the fact Saudi Arabia and other Arab Gulf countries are still under the US security umbrella and host US military bases."
US-Iran climbdown gives markets cause for pause by Nile Bowie
China might take Iran’s side in a war with US by Christina Lin
There’s a silver lining in a potential US-Iran war by Stephen Bryen
Iran opting for ‘total war’ against US by MK Bhadrakumar
Trump moves to de-escalate Iran crisis by Pepe Escobar
Jihadism in South Asia: A militant landscape in flux
South Asia is home to more Islamist terrorist organizations than any other region of the world, but at the turn of the decade the region's two leading global jihadist groups are facing a severe leadership vacuum following the death of ISIS’s supreme leader and caliph, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, and the killing of al-Qaeda heir apparent Hamza bin Laden. 
Read article
 What is Iran's next move?
Tehran's strategic intent
  • East Africa
  • North Africa
  • West Africa
A Guide to Getting Real on Iran by Aaron Stein
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HOW GEOPOLITICS SHAPES TRUMPS IRANIAN POLICY

1/11/2020

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​Will the killing of Soleimani be the death knell for Trump’s own Middle East strategy?
 The killing of Iranian Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani and Iraqi militia chief Abu Mehdi al-Muhandis was an important tactical victory, but the crucial question is whether the Trump administration can parlay it into a wider strategic victory and avoid it becoming a strategic defeat, writes Kenneth Pollack.
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Qassem Soleimani and US-Iran relations
In killing Soleimani, Trump enforces the red line he drew on Iran
President Donald Trump’s decision to kill Iranian Revolutionary Guard Quds Force commander Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani should have come as no surprise to the Iranian regime, explains Marc Thiessen. The administration had drawn a clear red line, warning Iranian leaders they would pay a severe price if they killed a US citizen.
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Iran's Missiles and Its Evolving "Rings of Fire"
By Uzi Rubin, January 9, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s warning on the emergent Yemen-originating missile threat corresponds to Iran’s modus operandi of surrounding its foes with missile “rings of fire” and will enable Tehran to complete the missile encirclement of the Jewish state as a step toward its eventual demise. Israel must do its utmost to confront this new strategic threat by establishing an alert system and defense capabilities against Yemen-originating cruise and ballistic missiles, whatever the cost.
Continue to full article ->
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THE MULLAH'S OPTIONS ON TRUMP

1/6/2020

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The Soleimani Killing: An Initial Assessment
Qods Force commander Soleimani’s carelessness put him in the U.S. military’s crosshairs
Qods Force commander Qassem Soleimani became "complacent" while traveling to and from Iraq, and did not believe the U.S. would target him, U.S. military officials told FDD's Long War Journal. The military was able to reliably track his movements at times.
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The Post-Suleimani View From Iran
by Abbas Milani via Project Syndicate
One hopes that Iranian leaders' domestic woes and deep desire for self-preservation will lead them to embrace symbolic acts of retaliation in response to the recent assassination of the security and intelligence chief Qassem Suleimani. 
How Will the Iranians Respond?
by Seth Frantzman
The National Review
January 4, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/60200/how-will-the-iranians-respond
What Is The Middle East In The Middle Of Anymore?
by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness
The United States is trying to square a circle, remaining strong and deterring dangerous elements, but to do so for U.S. interests—interests that increasingly seem to 
Iranian Analytics
by Victor Davis Hanson via National Review
Why Is Russia In Syria?
by Jakub Grygiel via American Interest
Russia recently announced that it will spend $500 million to fix and update the commercial port of Tartus in Syria. In 2017 Moscow had renewed its lease over the port, signing an agreement with Damascus in a clear show of support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. But Russian (and before 1991, Soviet) naval presence there dates back to the early 1970s.
Top commander's assassination leaves Iran with very few options to retaliate
 Following Qasem Soleimani's assassination in Iraq, there has been heightened concern about an Iranian reaction. But due to Tehran's economic hardship, decreased support from the public in Middle East societies and international isolation, Iran isn't likely to seek revenge militarily against the United States.
What Iran lost with Soleimani’s killing
 The top military commander’s influence went beyond his military prowess, and will be something that no successor can likely replicate.
The killing of Iranian Quds force commander Qassem Soleimani and Iraqi militia chief Abu Mehdi al-Muhandis was an important tactical victory. But the crucial question is whether the Trump administration can parlay it into a wider strategic victory and avoid it becoming a strategic defeat, writes Kenneth Pollack in an AEIdeas blog. The killings could soon present Trump with a stark choice between getting far more involved in the Middle East to support our allies and hold back the Iranians and getting out altogether. Unfortunately, doing either right would require a skill and subtlety that Trump has yet to demonstrate. Finish reading here.

The killing of Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad on Friday generated a predictably partisan flurry of praise and condemnation. But the context in which the decision to kill him was made is being lost in angry rhetoric, explains Fred Kagan in a New York Daily News op-ed. Only once the US stops looking for simplistic solutions and stops assigning blame either to Obama or Trump do we stand a chance of building a policy that can achieve an end to this conflict at an acceptable cost. Continue here.

Qassem Soleimani was responsible for the deaths of more Americans than any terrorist leader since Osama bin Laden. No one should mourn his death. In Iran, however, he was a revered figure like former US Defense Secretary James Mattis, notes Michael Rubin in a National Interest op-ed. As the second- and third-order effects of his death become clear, it is imperative that the US national security bureaucracy alongside Congress work overtime on a nonpartisan, broad strategy to contain the negative and exploit the positive.  Learn more here.

The US air strike that killed Soleimani and Muhandis was not simply a sharp departure in the Trump administration’s policy toward Tehran. It also marks a larger shift in America’s response to Iranian influence and provocations in the Middle East, writes Hal Brands in a Bloomberg op-ed. President Trump has gambled that an extraordinary escalation will allow it to reset control of an intensifying US-Iran confrontation. And while it may actually work, weathering the diplomatic and military fallout will require far greater skill and competence than Trump’s team has displayed so far. Continue here.

Last week, in the context of the attacks by Iranian-backed militias on the US Embassy in Baghdad and perhaps with an intimation of the drone strike that killed Soleimani, Secretary of Defense Mark Esper pronounced, “The game has changed.” In a Detroit News op-ed, Giselle Donnelly writes that the “game” in the Middle East remains the same: It is still a multisided struggle for power in the wake of the collapse of the postcolonial and “nationalist” governments established after World War II. Learn more here.
Earlier last month, Hal Brands, Kenneth Pollack, and Steven Cook noted in Foreign Policy that President Trump sees himself as a leader who shatters generations of conventional wisdom in US foreign policy. In the case of Iran, he is right. And unless the president changes course, he will usher in a brave new era in US relations with the Persian Gulf — one that may well help Iran claim its long-sought ascendancy in that region and leave Americans longing for the good old days of the Carter Doctrine. Read more here.

Following the release of The Washington Post’s Afghanistan Papers, Fred Kagan took to the AEIdeas blog to argue that contrary to the Post’s reporting, American leaders did not systematically lie to the American people about the situation in Afghanistan. Afghanistan is not Vietnam. George Bush did not lie America into this war. And he, Barack Obama, Donald Trump, and their generals and diplomats did not conceal the challenges and failures the US was facing. Learn more here.
Iran Lacks Good Options
by Jonathan Spyer
The Jerusalem Post
January 4, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/60201/iran-lacks-good-options
 Iraq parliament votes to expel US troops 
Iraq's parliament on Sunday passed a nonbinding resolution to expel the 5,000 or so US troops in the country following the killing of Iranian military commander Qasem Soleimani and Iraqi militia leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis in a US airstrike at Baghdad airport. "The Iraqi government must work to end the presence of any foreign troops on Iraqi soil and prohibit them from using its land, airspace or water for any reason," the resolution reads. The vote comes amid intense pressure from pro-Iran militias, which have called for retaliation. Kurdish and most of the Sunni members of parliament did not attend the parliamentary session in protest of the resolution. 
Meanwhile two rockets hit near the US embassy in Baghdad on Sunday, the AFP reports, hours after the Iraqi government summoned US Ambassador Matthew Tueller. NATO has called for an urgent meeting of the alliance's ambassadors today to address the fallout from the US strike after suspending its training mission in Iraq on Saturday over increased security risks.
Read More  
aljazeera.com
Trump’s Iran policy spirals toward control
Hal Brands | Bloomberg Opinion
President Trump has gambled that an extraordinary escalation will allow his administration to reassert control over an intensifying US-Iran confrontation. It may actually work. But weathering the diplomatic and military fallout will require far greater skill and competence than Trump’s team has displayed so far.
U.S. Kills Qassem Soleimani
Tony Badran
Donald Trump cuts off Iran’s terror arm in Iraq, while Israel braces for Iranian retaliation 
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TURKEY COMPETES WITH EGYPT IN LIBYA & TRUMP KILLS OF IRANIAN TERROR LEADER

1/3/2020

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Libya: Turkish Forces Enter Libya following Airstrike at Military Academy.  Turkish President Erdogan on Sunday announced that Turkish military units had begun moving into Libya to support Libya’s internationally recognized Government of National Accord.  “There will be an operation center, there will be a Turkish lieutenant general leading and they will be managing the situation over there. [Turkish soldiers] are gradually moving there right now,” Erdogan said.  The move comes after a rebel airstrike killed at least 30 at a government-backed military academy over the weekend.  BBC  Reuters Al Jazeera ​
Qods Force commander Soleimani’s carelessness put him in the U.S. military’s crosshairs
U.S. kills Iran’s Qods Force commander and Iraq’s deputy PMF leader in strike in Baghdad
Turkey’s economy remains vulnerable
Desmond Lachman | AEIdeas
U.S. Kills Qassem Soleimani  
​Donald Trump cuts off Iran’s terror arm in Iraq, while Israel braces for Iranian retaliatio
Soleimani is dead, but the enemy still stands
Alireza Nader | Senior Fellow
The Unthinkable: Soleimani Executed in Iraq  by Seth Frantzman
The Jerusalem Post
January 3, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/60196/the-unthinkable-soleimani-killed-in-iraq
Soleimani Schemed Against America As His World Crumbled
By BENNY AVNI, Special to the Sun | January 3, 2020
https://www.nysun.com/foreign/soleimani-plotted-against-america-as-his-world/90962/
"U.S. kills Iran’s Qods Force commander and Iraq’s deputy PMF leader in strike in Baghdad," Bill Roggio and Caleb Weiss, FDD's Long War Journal
Turkey: Ankara Approves Military Deployment to Libya.  The Turkish parliament on Thursday approved a bill to send troops to support the UN-backed government in Libya.  Egypt, who supports the Libyan government’s opposition, led by Khalifa Haftar, said the decision "negatively affects the stability of the Mediterranean region.”  U.S. President Donald Trump in a phone call warned Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan against "foreign interference.”  Al Jazeera BBC
Get the full Intel Brief here.
Turkey's Ambitions in Libya and the Mediterranean Hinge on Naval Expansion
by Burak Bekdil
The Gatestone Institute
December 30, 2019
https://www.meforum.org/60192/turkeys-gunboat-gambit-in-the-mediterranean
Turkish parliament approves troop deployment to Libya
In a measure with regionwide implications, the Turkish parliament approved a motion Jan. 2 to deploy forces to Libya during an extraordinary meeting before the start of its 2020 legislative session next week.

Though details remain unclear on the involvement of Turkish troops in direct combat operations, the vote established a one-year mandate for Turkish forces to transfer weapons, planes and vehicles in support of the UN-recognized Tripoli government headed by Fayez al-Sarraj.
Read Full Article  

Iran Can No Longer Rely on Shia Militias to Fight its Wars  by Con Coughlin 
How Russia is reading the killing of Qasem Soleimaini
Moscow weighs the implications of the elimination of one of the Middle East's most powerful men.
 
With Turkey preoccupied with Libya, Idlib slips through Ankara’s fingers
While Turkey prepares to send troops to Libya, Russia's uncompromising attitude on Idlib signals that Ankara will not get what it wants in Syria.
  • In major escalation, American strike kills top Iranian commander in Baghdad
  • Iran vows revenge after U.S. drone strike kills elite force commander
  • Iran and U.S. shift to open confrontation in Iraq
  • CFR’s Ray Takeyh: Iran is losing its grip on Iraq
  • Lebanon's Hezbollah to continue path of Iranian commander after U.S. strike: TV
  • Trump warns Turkey's Erdogan against military intervention in Libya
  • WINEP’s Michael Knights: U.S.-Iraq relations at a crossroads: policy options
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