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EMERGING THREAT ASSESSMENT
GLOBAL STRIKE MEDIA.COM 
NORTH AMERICA 

PUTIN VS. THE WEST & CHINESE LEADERSHIP FALTERS FAST WITH GROWING DOMESTIC PROBLEMS

1/29/2022

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  • WINEP’s Dennis Ross and Anna Borshchevskaya: Is it time to get tough with Russia?
  • ISW's Frederick W. Kagan, Mason Clark, George Barros, and Kateryna Stepanenko: Putin's likely course of action in Ukraine: Updated course of action assessment
Seth J. Frantzman writes: Qatar plays a kind of double game, pretending that its interest is merely de-escalation, while also trying to be friends with all sides. […]The question for countries in the region and the US is whether Qatar’s double-game can also actually bring real results or if the talk of de-escalation is also a way to position Qatar as the key to every conflict so as to increase its power and profit. – Jerusalem Post  ​
Dustin Walker writes: For too long, the Pentagon has moved too slowly to achieve its ambitions of a distributed and resilient force posture in the Indo-Pacific, with dangerous consequences for American security. Urgent change at a significant scale is required, and that starts with the secretary of defense declaring, “I am Spike.” – War on the Rocks ​
Erdoğan's Neo-Ottoman Ambitions Turning Eastward  by Burak Bekdil
Turkey’s central bank continues window dressing with currency swaps
Hit by a foreign reserves drain, Turkey’s central bank eyes fresh currency swap deals, including with the central banks of Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Libya.
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Why Putin Has Not Been Deterred
by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness
Exasperated Americans fear Vladimir Putin is deterred neither by sanctions nor by arms sales but follows only his own sense of cost-to-benefit self-interest.
How Russian moves in Syria are linked to Moscow's Ukraine strategy
 Large-scale exercises in the Mediterranean are meant both to increase capabilities in Syria and to send a message to NATO.
Iranian Attacks in Iraq Reflect Weakness, Disarray  by Jonathan Spyer
The Jerusalem Post
January 20, 2022

https://www.meforum.org/62961/iranian-attacks-in-iraq-reflect-weakness-disarray
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HOW TO UNDERSTAND THE CHALLENGE OF ETHIOPIA

1/23/2022

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The Missing Component in US Counterterrorism Efforts in Africa
Michael Rubin | RealClearDefense
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BIDEN'S GLOBAL CHALLENGES ARE GROWING FAST

1/23/2022

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JOHN BOLTON:  A WOLRD WITHOUT RULES
DRIVERS IN NEAR EAST FOR POST 2022  Read Outlook  
Autumn 2021 Issue
Our So-Called Foreign Policy: Biden’s Foreign Policy Pillar is Looking Hollow at Best
Éric Zemmour: France's Last Chance for Survival?  by Guy Millière
Hal Brands argues in Foreign Affairs that America has become an "overstretched superpower." As threats from Russia and China mount, he thinks it's clear that the "relentless diplomacy" adopted by the Biden administration is not sufficient to protect American interests and credibility around the world. The US, Brands says, can do "more with less" by reevaluating its capacity to wage two wars at once.
Theodore Roosevelt: Back to the Badlands
Editorial of The New York Sun | 
January 21, 2022
https://www.nysun.com/editorials/theodore-roosevelt-back-to-the-badlands/91960/
Three steps to help defense innovation break free from its shackles
(Defense News) The United States simply cannot meet the national security challenges it faces over the next decade if the resource allocation process is not brought into the 21st century. 
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CRISIS GROUP, YEMEN
WINEP:  HOW PRESSURING YEMEN
WINEP:  WHY YEMENI SHIA HIT UAE
A Year of Unforced Errors for Biden in the Middle East
Jonathan Schanzer — The Dispatch
One year into his presidency, Joe Biden endeavors to pivot away from the Middle East. The Middle East simply won’t let him. Like his predecessors, the president continues to struggle with the right approach to this important and perilous region. To date, many of Biden’s approaches have amounted to unforced errors. A number of them are likely to haunt him. Afghanistan: Though the country is not technically not part of the Middle East, Biden’s disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan last year continues to impact how states in that region view America’s role in their neighborhood. Read 
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SOUTH AMERICA GOES LEFT; AFRICAN HORN CIVIL WAR & THE RETURN OF MAO

1/6/2022

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US Sanctions Bosnian Serb Leader Dodik.  The US Treasury Department imposed new targeted sanctions on Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik and other officials for acts of corruption and destabilization in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The department also sanctioned media outlet Alternativna Television for links to Dodik. Bosnian Serb leaders have been working to withdraw Serbian territories from state institutions, reviving concerns of possible Bosnian disintegration.  
Al Jazeera Politico Reuters

North Korea Says Hypersonic Missile Tested.  North Korea claims it successfully launched a hypersonic missile on Wednesday as part of its “strategic” military modernization efforts, according to state media. It is the North’s second known test-launch of a hypersonic missile, with its first occurring last September. The launch indicates Pyongyang will continue to focus on military development rather than return to stalled disarmament talks.  Associated Press Reuters Wall Street Journa
The new conquistadores  U.S. adversaries are becoming South American hegemons
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    Peering into crystal ball; future of war
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    BEYOND COUNTER-TERRORISM
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