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Turkey's Elections Are Not Just Turkey's by Burak Bekdil
Gatestone Institute January 26, 2023 https://www.meforum.org/64081/turkey-elections-are-not-just-turkeys
Maps from the past week
See more maps tracking Salafi-Jihadi movements in Africa, the Middle East and Central/South Asia >>
Al Shabaab continued a wave of suicide attacks against Somali forces, including its first major tactical victory in central Somalia, where it overran a base used by US-trained special forces.
READ MORE >> Malign actors are exploiting security vacuums left by the French withdrawal from Mali and Burkina Faso. The al Qaeda affiliate in the Sahel has emerged as the only viable security partner for Tuareg communities facing Islamic State violence in northeastern Mali. READ MORE >> The Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is increasingly taking control over terrain in Pakistan since ending a cease-fire with the government in November 2022. READ MORE >> SEE FULL UPDATE  Breaking China’s Hold Dan Blumenthal and Derek Scissors | Atlantic As Beijing’s ambition of overtaking the American economy stalls, its strategy is shifting to economic coercion. The US must be prepared Here Are the Books You Should Have Given or Received Compiled by Josiah Johnson | AEIdeas From wonkish policy analysis to popular history to engrossing fiction, AEI research fellows' book recommendations include something for just about everybody. US Military's Failing Deterrence Against China 'They Are Putting Capability in the Field Faster Than We Are'by Judith Bergman Describing why and how the Communist Chinese regime subverts democracies around the world, Michael Beckley and Hal Brands argue that ideology, not practicality, drives these efforts. Beckley and Brands say democratic leaders need to recognize that China’s government has deeply held ideological motives to weaken democracies and promote its own authoritarian form of governance. Following the US-Africa Leaders Forum in Washington last week, Michael Rubin identifies what’s missing in America’s Africa strategy. “None of America’s investment will matter,” writes Rubin, “if the United States has no model to which it can point on the continent to demonstrate the wisdom and benefits of African states casting their lot with America.” How To Shift DoD’s Supply Chain Mindset From Tactical to Strategic By Chris Frye, Defense News: “The president’s executive order on America’s supply chains and the CHIPS and Science Act underscore an urgent need to enlist emerging technology and hybrid models to enable resilient, competitive and sustainable supply chains.” Offset-X: How to Ensure the U.S. Military Stays Ahead of Russia and China By James Holmes, 1945: “"“Offset-X,” an aspirational effort aimed at “achieving and maintaining military-technological superiority over all potential adversaries . . ." How to Get Ahead in Washington: Lessons from the Renaissance and Baroque Eras, Part 2, by Iskander Rehman Eight Thoughts on Israel’s Political Crisis The rise of Middle Eastern culture in Israel is to be celebrated. The rise of Middle Eastern politics will make our fate identical to that of our neighbors Deterrence Through Doctrine: The Case for a Joint Counter-Landing Doctrine, by Dylan Buck and Zach Ota Looking Back at President Biden’s Foreign Policy, with Christopher Preble, Zack Cooper, and Melanie Marlowe How the Defense Industry Became a Defining Feature of the U.S. Economy
By Loren Thompson, Forbes: "A hundred years ago, the United States did not have a defense industry. At least, not in the sense that term is used today." Robert Kaplan’s The Tragic Mind Counsels Prudence and Realism in Ukraine and the South China Sea By Francis P. Sempa, RealClearDefense: “The Defense Department’s top procurement official is taking aim at watchdog-type laws that are put in place to discourage corruption in government.” U.S. MUST BROKER STRATEGIC TRUCE BETWEEN SOUTH KOREA & JAPAN; NAVY COMPLETES NEW HYPERSONIC DRONE1/17/2023  Defenders of the West A new book traces common philosophical threads in the writings of Pierre Manent and Roger Scruton.
Is the U.S. Military Becoming a Hollow Force, and Is It Time for a Strategic Course Correction? By Harlan Ullman, Atlantic Council: “. . . the U.S. military is headed toward becoming a twenty-first century version of the dreaded “hollow force” that plagued the nation after the Vietnam War." Our Best War Stories By Scott Noon Creley, Strategy Bridge: "Our Best War Stories from Midwest Press is a collection full of the most important kind of truth . . ." Air Force Research Lab Advances "First-of-its-Kind" Armed Hypersonic Attack Drone By Kris Osborn, Warrior Maven: "The Air Force Research Laboratory is in the early stages of developing a breakthrough-level hypersonic drone, something it appears the world has not yet seen." Expanding Military Cooperation Between South Korea, Japan ‘A Necessity’ By John Grady, USNI News: "The Navy’s top officer stressed the need for “a forward-looking relationship” between Japan, South Korea and the United States." Moscow Is Allegedly Preparing To Deport Some 100,000 Ukrainians to Russia By Oleksandra Vakulina, Euronews: "Russian officials and occupation authorities may be preparing for a mass deportation of Ukrainian citizens from occupied territories to the Russian Federation." The U.S. Army Needs Mobile, Long-Range, And Precise Artillery By Dan Gouré, Modern War Institute: "The U.S. Army is currently investing in two of the three critical capabilities for future fires systems (artillery, rockets, and missiles)." The U.S. Marine Corps: Now An Access-Denial Force to Fight China? By Tiny Tim, The War Zone: “The Defense Department’s top procurement official is taking aim at watchdog-type laws that are put in place to discourage corruption in government.” Key Factors Behind the Improvement in Israel-India Relations in Recent Years by Jonathan Spyer The Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security January 9, 2023 https://www.meforum.org/64015/key-factors-behind-the-improvement-in-israel Iran, Syria, Palestinians: A Preview of 2023 by Jonathan Spyer The Jerusalem Post January 7, 2023 https://www.meforum.org/64001/iran-syria-palestinians-a-preview-of-2023 The Fed Replays History: Lessons In Dealing With Inflation by Michael D. Bordo via PolicyEdThe Federal Reserve has, at times, responded slowly to inflation, but a rules-based approach could prevent future mistakes. John Taylor On Bloomberg Markets: The Close interview with John B. Taylor via Bloomberg(3:30) Hoover Institution fellow John Taylor discusses the job numbers, inflation, the Taylor Rule/interest rates, and the economy. 7 Reasons High Inflation Isn’t Likely To Go Away Any Time Soon quoting John H. Cochrane via The Federalist As Hoover Institution economist John Cochrane said during a panel discussion, “Debt crises are like the Spanish Inquisition; no one expects them to come. If you knew they were coming, they would have already happened.” The PLA's People Problem // Peter W. Singer and Taylor A. Lee: China's military has long struggled to field quality personnel. Navy Secretary Warns: If Defense Industry Can't Boost Production, Arming Both Ukraine and the US May Become 'Challenging' // Marcus Weisgerber: Carlos Del Toro's comments come as an admiral accuses weapons makers of using the pandemic as an excuse for not delivering arms on time. Saudi Arabia Wanting to Use Domestic Uranium for Nuclear fuel. Saudi Arabian energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said Wednesday that the kingdom seeks to use domestically-sourced uranium for nuclear fuel. He said these plans follow the discovery of a diverse portfolio of uranium in Saudi Arabia, which has led the kingdom to look more at nuclear energy as a way to diversify its energy sources. Saudi Arabia says it wants to expand its nuclear program to include uranium enrichment, which will likely escalate tensions with Iran given the process’ role in nuclear weapon development. Reuters Chinese Foreign Minister Warns Against Competition Over Africa. Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang said Wednesday that world powers should cooperate in Africa rather than use the continent as an arena for international competition. Qin’s comments came during a meeting with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in the capital of Addis Ababa. During his visit, Qin opened a headquarters for a new pan-African health body and promised more Chinese investment in Ethiopia, as well as Chinese support for reconstruction in the Tigray region. Qin is on a tour of Africa which will bring him to Egypt, Angola, Benin and Gabon over the next week. Reuters South China Morning Post Navy’s Unmanned, AI Task Force Reaches Full Operational Capability. The US Navy says Task Force 59, a first-of-its-kind task force focused on uncrewed systems and AI, has reached full operational capability and is set to begin advanced maritime drone and surveillance operations in the Middle East. Vice Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of US Naval Forces Central Command and commander of the 5th fleet, announced the development, saying that the task force was readied over 15 months to support the Navy’s effort to build a “digital ocean” of distributed, networked digital assets. DefenseOne DefenseScoop Partnership, Not Threats: How to Deepen U.S.-Indian Naval Cooperation, by Karambir Singh and Blake Herzinger Nine Recommendations to Presidential Candidates on China Policy Dan Blumenthal, Zack Cooper, and Derek Scissors | AEIdeas Candidates for the presidency should develop a comprehensive policy on how to approach the economic, military, and political threats China poses. Liberal Humanism’s Lost World
Lionel Trilling resisted an apocalyptic progressivism at odds with liberty and complexity.
In a new video for Straight Arrow News, Katherine Zimmerman warns that al Qaeda and ISIS will remain threats to global security in 2023. “Al Qaeda and the Islamic State thrive in insecure environments, as does Russia, creating a dangerous convergence in their interests,” says Zimmerman.
Strategy for a New Comprehensive U.S. Policy on Iran
Mark Dubowitz and Orde Kittrie — FDD Monograph The Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) has developed a comprehensive plan for American policymakers and allies to support the Iranian people and confront the ongoing threats from the Islamic Republic of Iran. The strategy explains how Washington can deploy multiple elements of national power, providing specific and actionable recommendations for relevant agencies of the U.S. government. Read more
‘Enough Is Enough’: What Blinken Should Tell Turkey’s Cavusoglu
Sinan Ciddi — The National Interest The State of US’ India policy Cleo Paskal — The Sunday Guardian Security Challenges Facing the New Israeli Government Jacob Nagel — The Jerusalem Strategic Tribune 
Deteriorating relationships between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and local communities will likely advantage the Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) as it seeks to expand its shadow governance in eastern Syria. READ MORE >>
Al Shabaab, al Qaeda’s affiliate in Somalia, is attempting to push back an effort by Somali government and local forces to oust the group from positions in central Somalia. Somali forces, with US support, have removed al Shabaab from several strongholds in central and south-central Somalia. READ MORE >> An escalating insurgency in Pakistan is straining relations between the Pakistani government and the Taliban-led government in Afghanistan. The Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has increased attacks in Pakistan since November 2022. READ MORE >> SEE FULL UPDATE
Maps from the past week
See more maps tracking Salafi-Jihadi movements in Africa, the Middle East and Central/South Asia >>
China beyond minimum deterrence; reading Beijing's nuclear developments
China’s latest reported upgrades and apparent additions to its submarine-launched and land-based strategic nuclear-armed missile forces should significantly boost their capabilities but will likely also pose added challenges on the arms control front. READ MORE
China’s Military Modernisation: Will the People’s Liberation Army complete its reforms?
The People's Liberation Army's modernisation programme has seen the commissioning of some impressive military platforms and systems since 2021, but progress in institutional reform and restructuring is less obvious and China's leaders do not yet have complete confidence in their military's war-fighting capabilities. READ MORE
Trends That Will Define the Coming Years
The world is always changing, but some changes are more important than others. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will likely be remembered as the start of a new era in geoeconomics. The uncertainty and tit-for-tat measures kicked off an energy crisis. And the war renewed focus on the growing divide between the West and a nascent revisionist bloc led by China and Russia. It is difficult to see a path back to the status quo ante bellum, but several major trends that will define the next decade have become clear. They include deglobalization, stagflation and the bursting of the tech bubble.
The Arc of a Covenant, with Walter Russell Mead
Japan’s Shift to War Footing, by Zack Cooper and Eric Sayers
Partnership, Not Threats: How to Deepen U.S.-Indian Naval Cooperation, by Karambir Singh and Blake Herzinger
In case you missed it Wednesday, Russia just changed the commander of its Ukraine invasion, which is a move the British military called “a significant development in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s approach to managing the war.” They also described it as “an indicator of the increasing seriousness of the situation Russia is facing, and a clear acknowledgement that the campaign is falling short of Russia’s strategic goals.”
The new commander is Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov; and the prior war commander, Gen. Sergei Surovikin, is now one of three deputies under Gerasimov in the new role. “Surovikin has been widely praised” by Russian ultranationalists “for his championing of a more realistic approach” to the invasion and occupation of Ukraine. But “As a now deputy commander, his authority and influence is almost certainly hugely reduced,” the Brits say. Wonk reax: Russia-watcher Mark Galeotti of the UK-based Royal United Services Institute said the new moves provide “Confirmation, if we needed it, that there will be serious offensives coming,” likely in the spring; “and that even Putin recognises that poor coordination has been an issue” for his invading forces. For Gerasimov, the new posting “is a kind of demotion, or at least the most poisoned of chalices,” Galeotti said. Success in the war is “now on him, and I suspect Putin has unrealistic expectations again.” However, Galeotti cautioned, “In many ways, I don't think Moscow's strategy hinges anyway on battlefield victory; it's more about politics.” That is to say, Putin seems most intent “demonstrating to the West that Russia is in this for the long haul, and hoping that we will lose the will and unity to continue to support Kyiv,” according to Galeotti—who predicted “Putin will be disappointed, but he has to believe [that Ukraine’s supporters will peel away over time]; it’s his only real shot at some kind of victory.” Wonk reax #2: “With Gerasimov in charge, if this is indeed permanent, I think the [possibility] of the Russians asking their tired force to do something that it cannot handle rises exponentially,” said Dara Massicot of the Washington-based RAND Corporation. “With this change, I view this as a power struggle that has resolved in favor of Shoygu/Gerasimov,” who have years of experience inside the Kremlin. After all, Massicot writes, “Seniors in Moscow are clingingly fiercely to the status quo and also [the] Soviet past. [It’s] important to keep in mind that they default to looking inwards and backwards even when it [leads] them to poor outcomes.”
AEI AFRICA READ THE LATEST EDITION HERE
The Underestimated Insurgency, Continued: Salafi-Jihadi Capabilities and Opportunities in Africa
Guess who just turned 40? CENTCOM, the U.S. military's combatant command that focuses on developments throughout the Middle East. The Tampa-based command is the result of what's known as the "Carter doctrine," stemming from POTUS39 Jimmy Carter's time in the White House. The doctrine itself was a response to the Soviet Union's Afghanistan invasion in late 1979; but Carter's directive to focus exclusively on the Middle East was also informed by the global energy shocks of the 1970s, which threw much of the West's petroleum sources into turmoil and uncertainty, rattling the economies of the U.S. and many of its Israel-supporting allies along the way.
"Let our position be absolutely clear," Carter said in January 1980; "An attempt by any outside force to gain control of the Persian Gulf region will be regarded as an assault on the vital interests of the United States of America, and such an assault will be repelled by any means necessary, including military force." "We have internal threats within the region, such as the Iran-Iraq war at this time," Army Lt. Gen. Robert Kingston, CENTCOM's first commander, said upon taking the helm. "And then we also have the threat of external aggression, and we saw it just recently in 1979 with the Russian invasion of Afghanistan…This emphasizes their increased capability and will to enforce Russian interests outside of their current territory." And this 40-year-old line may sound familiar: "We have what we call an 'over-the-horizon' concept, which my forces and headquarters, of course, would be invited in by a host nation or nations," Kingston explained in that same archival clip CENTCOM shared on Twitter on Tuesday. "We'd be invited in for specific purposes to assist militarily; when that is accomplished, we will return to the continental United States in as expeditious a manner as possible," Kingston said. Meanwhile in Syria: Unknown militants fired two rockets toward U.S.-led coalition troops at Mission Support Site Conoco, in the northeastern part of the country, on Wednesday. It happened at 9 a.m. local time; fortunately, no one was hurt and no property was damaged either, according to CENTCOM officials. Coalition-backed Syrian Democratic Forces allegedly found an unlaunched third rocket at the launch site; but that's about all CENTCOM said about the incident. Read the rest, here.
Around Bakhmut, Ukrainian forces built defensive lines "every 10 meters," and Russian troops are bogged down trying to clear the town "building-by-building," according to Yevgeny Prigozhin, owner of the Wagner Group, whose mercenaries and growing ranks of convicts have been trying to chip away at Bakhmut since May.
Reax: "Prigozhin is likely setting information conditions to blame Wagner Group's failure to take Bakhmut on the Russian Ministry of Defense or the Russian industrial base," analysts at the Institute for the Study of War wrote in their latest assessment.
Senior White House Official: Wagner Mercenaries More 'Aggressive' Than Russian Military // Patrick Tucker: The Wagner group is doing what the regular Russian military can't. But it's still losing.
This analysis examines the relationships and allegiances that shape interactions between armed groups in southern Yemen, specifically in Abyan, Aden, Dhaleh, and Lahij governorates. These southern Yemeni armed groups not only fight the Iran-aligned Houthi movement but also support ongoing US-backed counterterrorism efforts against al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and the Islamic State in Yemen (IS-Yemen).
READ HERE
US disengagement from Saudi Arabia and the UAE will not end the war in Yemen, but it will damage US relations with Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
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A regularly updated review of both Yemen and the Horn of Africa covering topics related to security, governance, and militant activity.
READ HERE
Most Read War On The Rocks Articles of 2022, by WOTR Staff
Turkey’s Russian Red Light in Syria, by Sam Heller
Will a Spark in Jordan Ignite the Kingdom? by Seth J. Frantzman
The Jerusalem Post December 18, 2022 https://www.meforum.org/63921/will-a-spark-in-jordan-ignite-the-kingdom
After the Civil War, another conflict between two peoples from different worlds would determine the fate of the American continent.
READ MORE ›
A sound constitution encoded with classical liberal principles is an anchor for society—one that is hard to haul away and destroy.
READ MORE ›
Emanuele Ottolenghi on Iranian Operations in Latin America by Marilyn Stern
Middle East Forum Webinar December 23, 2022 https://www.meforum.org/63941/emanuele-ottolenghi-on-iranian-operations-in
Psychological Capabilities for Resilience, by Shannon Houck
Why the U.S. Isn’t Ready for a Fight in the Indo-Pacific
By Phelim Kine & Lara Seligman, Politico: “Pentagon’s promise to shore up its forces in the Pacific in 2023 is meeting skepticism.”
U.S., INDO-PACIFIC:
U.S. Military to Transform Indo-Pacific Force Posture in 2023 By Christopher Woody, Business Insider: “The U.S. military will have a "transformative" year in Asia in 2023."
How U.S. Can Compete With China in Latin America
By R. Evan Ellis, National Defense Magazine: “Latin America’s latest “turn to the left” is both broader than the region’s last “pink tide,” and arguably more problematic for the United States in strategic terms . . .”
China Next Door: How the CCP is Reshaping Latin America
By Steven Arango, CIMSEC: “. . . the United States has treated Latin America with “benign neglect.””
Erdoğan Seeks Rapprochement with Assad, under Russian Auspices by Jonathan Spyer
The Jerusalem Post December 23, 2022 https://www.meforum.org/63939/erdogan-seeks-rapprochement-with-assad
Leveraging U.S. Capital Markets to Support the Future Industrial Network, by Joseph L. Votel, Francis A. Finelli, and Samuel Cole
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