EMERGING THREATS U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY - CounterStrikeMedia

RUSSIAN MESS IN SYRIA GROWING & PUTIN'S NEW TOY

2/28/2018

Putin unveils nuclear weapons he claims could breach U.S. defenses

Ron Ben-Yishai writes: The Fox News report on the new Iranian base built in Syria isn’t coincidental. It’s a strategic move aimed, first at foremost, at spurring the world powers—the United States and Russia—to take action. - Ynet News

Israel said frustrated with U.S. inaction on Iran role in Syria

Read Hoffman’s column on how to punish Putin.

Russia 'Incredibly Destabilizing' as Syrian Conflict Threatens Region, Top US General Warns // Kevin Baron and Caroline Houck
Weeks after Tillerson said the U.S. and Russia share a postwar vision, Votel says Moscow is playing both "arsonist and firefighter."

Russia Is a Great Power Once Again // Alina Polyakova
Putin's Syria intervention saved Assad. But is he ready for what comes next?

In Syria, foreign powers’ scramble for influence intensifies
Days after cease-fire resolution, more bombing and death in Syria
WaPo editorial: Putin is getting away with murder in Syria

U.S., SYRIA: GEN Votel Says Iraq Sovereignty Provides ‘Legal Basis’ for Syria Presence
By Jack Detsch, Al-Monitor: “Joseph Votel told the House Armed Services Committee that the 2001 Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF), signed by President George W. Bush to go after the plotters of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, remains in effect for the U.S. fight against the Islamic State (IS) in Syria.”

TURKEY WANTS THE GREEK ISLANDS

2/28/2018

GATESTONE INSTITUTE

ASSAD USES GAS AGAIN & TURKEY TELLS A CRYING 6 YEAR OLD ABOUT MARTYRDOM

2/26/2018

Syria war: 'Gas attack' kills child in Eastern Ghouta
(Al Jazeera) Health officials in the rebel-held enclave of Eastern Ghouta are accusing Syrian government forces of using chlorine gas in their aerial bombardment campaign in the Damascus suburb.

Russia Is Abetting Mass Murder in Syria // Evelyn N. Farkas
By standing by and watching a slow-motion Rwanda unfold, the U.S. risks becoming an accessory to evil.

Erdogan tells a weeping girl, 6, she’d receive honors if martyred

UN report links North Korea to Syria chemical weapons program
North Korea has sent goods to Syria that could be aiding Bashar al-Assad’s chemical weapons program, according to a United Nations report obtained by The New York Times. Between 2012 and 2017, North Korea sent at least 40 unreported shipments to the war-torn country that included prohibited dual-use ballistic missile parts and materials, the UN report says, as well as acid-resistant tiles, valves and thermometers. North Korean experts have also been spotted inside the country, calling into question North Korea’s compliance with international sanctions against Pyongyang as it seeks to earn much-needed cash.
Over the past two months, the United States and other countries have accused the Syrian government of using chlorine gas in attacks on the rebel-held Damascus suburb of Eastern Ghouta. Read More

RUSSIA GOES STEALTH IN SYRIA & WHILE E.U. SEEKS CONSOLIDATION AGAINST RUSSIA IN EASTERN EUROPE

2/26/2018

The Russian air force has reportedly deployed two prototype stealth fighters to Syria. The deployment comes just two weeks after U.S. and allied warplanes bombarded pro-regime forces, killing potentially scores of apparent Russian mercenaries. - The Daily Beast

For years, Russia has worked to gain influence in Southeast Europe, using Serbia as a foothold to establish a friendly pocket on a hostile continent. The European Union finally is pushing back. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker is embarking on a seven-nation Balkans tour Sunday to promote the EU's new eastward expansion strategy. - Associated Press

As the Syrian regime consolidates power, with the help of Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah, its combined forces are growing bolder—and presenting an increased strategic threat to Israel.

In response, Israel has begun adjusting its policy of selective intervention, recently targeting Assad air defense systems in response to Iranian incursions. But Israel’s increased military involvement in Syria risks unintentional escalation with Tehran.

The war in Syria has gradually shifted in the Syrian government’s favor, creating an opportunity for Iran to further its military presence in Syria, using the country as a staging ground for future military activity against Israel as well as to produce and transport advanced military capabilities for Hezbollah.
The U.S. lacks a concrete policy for the Syrian conflict apart from fighting a now-diminished ISIS, and Russia views its stake as preserving the Assad regime—not necessarily checking Tehran’s expanding influence. This means Israel will likely apply its own independent effort to actively contain Iranian influence and Hezbollah’s growth.

Read today’s full brief, with expert commentary from:

THE EURO GAMBIT ON IRAN: TARGET TRUMP

2/26/2018

France, Germany and Britain have been scrambling for months to convince President Trump that they want to join him in cracking down on bad Iranian behavior — missile tests, terrorism support and regional meddling. If they can sway him, they hope he will agree to preserve intact the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement he has argued is fatally flawed. - Washington Post

President Trump’s threat to rip up the Iran nuclear deal has touched off an urgent scramble in European capitals to preserve the agreement — not by rewriting it, but by creating a successor deal intended to halt Iran’s ballistic missile program and make permanent the restrictions on its ability to produce nuclear fuel. - New York Times

The United States threatened unilateral action against Iran on Monday after Russia vetoed a western bid for the United Nations Security Council to call out Tehran for failing to prevent its weapons from falling into the hands of Yemen’s Houthi group. - Reuters

James Jay Carafano writes: The better bet right now might to be stay within the JCPOA. But if the president decides to walk away, he shouldn’t be faulted. The important thing is that—stay or go—this administration is focused on the right policy: diminishing Tehran’s destabilizing influence in the region and leading the struggle against further proliferation by dangerous regimes. - The National Interest

Ephraim Kam writes: The latest confrontation between Israel and Iran on the northern front was predictable. We can assume that neither side wanted the clash, but with Tehran having sent substantial Iranian and Shi’ite combat forces to Syria while arming Hezbollah with advanced weapons, and with Israel determined to check the danger, a clash was almost inevitable. - Haaretz

XI FOR LIFE

2/26/2018

Xi’s ‘Putinization’ of China is a massive wake-up for America
Dan Blumenthal | The Hill
Xi Jinping is an ardent admirer of Russian President Vladimir Putin and is emulating many of Putin’s political and national security strategies. Xi’s latest move to do away with his own term limits should be seen as the “Putinization” of China. This means that China can create many problems for the US and its allies even if it is not “taking over” global leadership or supplanting American power.

China moves to let Xi stay in power by abolishing term limit
WSJ editorial: Xi Jinping, president for life

China’s ruling Communist Party plans to scrap presidential term limits, making it possible for President Xi Jinping to stay in power indefinitely and potentially changing the country’s political trajectory. - Washington Post

President Xi Jinping’s most trusted economic adviser is heading to Washington on Tuesday as a main envoy for the U.S.-China relationship, according to people with knowledge of the matter. - Wall Street Journal

The removal of presidential term limits should guarantee one thing for investors -- their China portfolios will be increasingly tied to one man. Markets initially welcomed China’s plan to change its constitution on Monday, a move that would allow Xi Jinping to rule beyond 2023. - Bloomberg

China’s plan for President Xi Jinping to remain in office indefinitely has sparked social media opposition, drawing comparisons to North Korea’s ruling dynasty and charges of creating a dictator by a Hong Kong pro-democracy activist. - Reuters

WaPo editorial: A new form of totalitarianism takes root in China

Officially known as “Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era,” the ideology will soon be given an even more prominent platform: the preamble of China’s Constitution. - New York Times

We Got China Wrong. Now What?
Charles Lane, Washington Post

Lowy Institute’s Richard McGregor: Xi Jinping’s ideological ambitions

THE POLES & WORLD WAR II

2/24/2018

NIGERIAN GIRLS ABDUCTED AGAIN

2/22/2018

Islamist militants stormed into a girls’ school in northern Nigeria this week, and with many girls still unaccounted for, Nigerians feared their country was experiencing a notorious mass abduction like one that drew worldwide condemnation almost four years ago. - New York Times

INNOVATION FOR AFRICAN JIHADI'S: WAR ON THE ROCKS

DO BLACK LIVES MATTER IN AFRICA

US concentrates Somalian air campaign around Jilib
(Long War Journal) US forces launched a strike yesterday that killed two members of Shabaab, al Qaeda’s branch in Somalia and East Africa, and wounded another fighter. The strike occurred in Jilib, a village south of Somalia’s capital Mogadishu.

'We're Finding It Difficult to Hold' Territory in Somalia: Senator // Caroline Houck
Somali government forces, African partner nations, and half a thousand U.S. troops are having trouble holding off the extremists of al Shabaab.

AFRIN: THE DEMISE OF US POWER IN LEVANT & NIGER TRANS SAHEL HIT HARD BY SUICIDE BOMBERS

2/21/2018

U.S., RUSSIA:
Russian Mercenary Boss 'Spoke to Kremlin' Before Attack on U.S., Allies
From Middle East Eye: “Yevgeniy Prigozhin was also in close contact with Russian officials before the attack and told a Syrian official that he had "secure permission" from a Russian minister for a "fast and strong" action that would happen in early February, according to intercepted communications seen by the Post.”

RUSSIAN SILENCE ABOUT KILLED CONTRACTORS

Afrin marks the point of collapse for American influence in Syria
BY DAVID P. GOLDMAN
Washington's abandonment of the Kurds left them with no other choice but to turn to the Assad government and its Russian backers. It's Moscow's chessboard now

Russia backs Turkey’s move to block Assad’s defense of Kurds
BY ASIA TIMES STAFF
‘Afrin city center will be besieged in the coming days,’ says Erdogan

An attack by three suicide bombers has left at least 20 people dead and more than 20 others wounded at a fish market outside the sprawling Nigerian city that gave rise to the Islamist extremist group Boko Haram, officials and news reports said on Saturday. - New York Times

West Africa’s extremist threat has moved into a new part of the vast Sahel region, with a previously calm area of Burkina Faso facing the kinds of assaults that have forced thousands elsewhere to flee over the past year. - Associated Press

U.S., SYRIA: What Does the U.S. Want in Syria?
By Christopher R. Hill, The Strategist (ASPI): “Given that most of the Middle East is now in a state of turmoil, U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson should be commended for keeping the Syrian conflict in mind during his recent trip to the region.”

U.S. NAVY ENTERS BLACK SEA: ATTENTION PUTIN

2/21/2018

Navy sends destroyers to Black Sea to ‘desensitize’ Russia
(Navy Times) The Navy has deployed the guided-missile destroyer Carney to join the destroyer Ross in the Black Sea in a move that U.S. military officials told CNN is intended to “desensitize” Russia to the presence of American military assets in the strategically important region.

AL-QAEDA GROWS BY DESIGN

2/15/2018

State Department Designates 7 ISIS-affiliated Groups As Terrorist Organizations
By Thomas Joscelyn, FDD's Long War Journal: “Underscoring the so-called caliphate’s growth outside of Iraq and Syria, the move targets ISIS affiliates in Bangladesh, Egypt, the Philippines, Somalia, Tunisia and West Africa.”

Analysis: ISIS hasn’t been defeated

On January 19, the Pentagon released its new National Defense Strategy, which prioritizes "inter-state strategic competition" from China and Russia over "terrorism." In many ways, the strategy makes sense. However, the threat from ISIS and al Qaeda has not been eliminated. The jihadists are fighting around the globe, everywhere from West Africa to Southeast Asia.

Al-Shabaab militants in Somalia are extorting huge sums from starving communities and forcibly recruiting hundreds of children as soldiers and suicide bombers as the terror group endures financial pressures and an apparent crisis of morale. - The Guardian

Threat Assessment #Fail: Al-Qaida Quietly Growing, By Design
By Bruce Hoffman, The Cipher Brief: “So the assessment is right to say that al-Qaida is systematically building local influences and local capabilities, but that’s only a dimension of al-Qaida’s overall strategy. In my view, as the periphery becomes stronger, so does the center—and conforms to al-Qaida leader Ayman al Zawahiri’s plan.”

Cipher Brief expert Bruce Hoffman believes the Worldwide Threat Assessment presented to Congress Tuesday failed to convey the larger al-Qaida strategy.

“Reading the part of the written statement that focused on al-Qaida, there seems to be an assumption about the combined staying power of al-Qaida’s five affiliates that this is some natural, evolutionary process whereby these five affiliates somehow individually have become magically stronger on their own.”
“This is not a coincidence. Rather, it is part of an overall strategic plan and vision that al-Qaida has been implementing, especially as ISIS’s fortunes decline.”
“I would argue that al-Qaida today is quite consciously letting ISIS take the heat, absorb all of our attention, and preoccupy our counterterrorism efforts… Hand in glove with that, al-Qaida is consciously portraying itself as “moderate extremist” in contrast to the unrestrained ISIS, and therefore as a more palatable or acceptable alternative to ISIS.”
“The main threat that we still fail to recognize is that al-Qaida itself has a strategy, and it is by no means clear that we necessarily have one to counter it.”

Read Hoffman’s take on what the Threat Assessment failed to capture.

U.S. KILLS 300 RUSSIANS IN SYRIA

2/13/2018

Syria's War Is Fueling Three More Conflicts // Krishnadev Calamur
As ISIS evaporates, the buffer zones between armed combatants of several opposing groups and nations have disappeared.

Russian casualties in skirmish with US in Syria top 300
Up to 300 Russian private military contractors were killed or injured while battling US-backed forces in Syria last week, Reuters reported Thursday, citing three anonymous sources familiar with the matter. A Russian military doctor who works in a Moscow military hospital and was directly involved in the treatment of wounded men evacuated from Syria said around 100 had been killed, while others shared similar figures. The doctor said his hospital was treating 50 patients who were flown in from the Syrian battlefield on specially equipped military cargo planes.
Earlier this week the Kremlin acknowledged the killing of five Russian citizens but said they had "no relation to Russia's armed forces." A spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry said reports of hundreds of Russian casualties were "disinformation inspired by Russia's opponents." Read More

US keen on Russia distancing itself from Iran’s Syrian ambitions
BY DAVID P. GOLDMAN
Washington would like Moscow to inform its Iranian partners they cannot count on Russian support if they use Syria as a base to threaten Israel, writes Spengler

Two Russians killed in US-led coalition strikes in Syria
At least two Russians were among those killed in US-led coalition air and artillery strikes in Syria’s Deir ez-Zor province last week, former associates of the deceased said on Monday. The Feb. 7 operation, which reportedly killed more than 100 troops loyal to President Bashar al-Assad, was in “self-defense” according to US officials, who said pro-regime forces moved against the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces in the oil-rich province. The Russians were identified as Vladimir Loginov, a Cossack from Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave, and Kirill Ananiev, described as a radical Russian nationalist. Both were fighting informally with the pro-government forces during the clashes.
Meanwhile, the foreign ministers of Russia, Iran and Turkey are planning to hold another round of Syria peace talks next month, Kazakh Foreign Minister Kairat Abdrakhmanov said today. The exact date and location have not yet been set, but the meeting could take place in Astana, which will be holding another round of lower-level talks around the same time. Read More

Syria’s war mutates into a regional conflict, risking a wider conflagration
WINEP’s David Makovsky: Israel signaling price for Iran’s role in Syria

When an Israeli jet crashed after being shot down over Syria over the weekend, it marked a serious escalation in the Syrian Civil War. But it also reflected an ongoing reality, one that is growing more dangerous: Syria’s war encompasses at least three other international conflicts, each of which are heating up. - The Atlantic

HOW GERMANY LOSES WITH MERKEL

2/10/2018

GATESTONE INSTITUTE

Angela's Merkel Government Of Losers
by Josef Joffe via Politico
This is a first in the history of electoral politics: The biggest losers have ended up as the German government’s de facto leaders.

Angela Merkel Is About To Pay For All Her Blunders
by Niall Ferguson via Boston Globe
My German-born friend Peter Thiel — the world’s most successful contrarian — has a favorite interview question. “What important truth,” he asks tech wannabes, “do very few people agree with you on?” The important truth about which very few people agree with me is that Angela Merkel has been a political disaster.

US LATIN AMERICAN STRATEGY

2/8/2018

Six steps on the path to a Latin America strategy
(Bloomberg) Finding the right balance between realism and idealism is at the heart of developing strategy, and the U.S. desperately needs one toward Latin America and the Caribbean.

PUTIN'S WAR TIME PRESIDENCY

2/6/2018

Vladimir Putin's wartime presidency
Leon Aron | AEI
At the end of his term, Putin will have been Russia’s leader for 24 years and will be 72 years old. But don’t expect a change in Russia’s leadership anytime soon. The West had better get ready for Putin’s wartime presidency: volatile, risk-prone, and lasting a very, very long time.

THE ISLAMISTS & RUSSIAN SYRIAN STRATEGY

2/6/2018

The Impact of Extremists in Civil War: Syria’s Shabbiha
By Estelle J. Townshend-Denton, Divergent Options: “In Syria the Shabbiha has grown from a trans-border criminal network to sectarian militias fighting for the regime. The Shabbiha are a significant impediment to the resolution of the Syrian civil war.”

While ISIS’s territory has dwindled, al Qaida has managed to build a strong following in Syria, and may use the civil-war-torn country as a base from which to target the West.The group has evolved into the network’s largest global affiliate by strategically positioning itself as a key opposition movement battling the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Al Qaida’s Syrian offshoot, formerly known as Jabhat al-Nusra or the al-Nusra Front, emerged in 2011 against the backdrop of the Syrian civil war. In July 2016, the group announced it was "splitting" from the al Qaida network and rebranded itself as Jabhat Fateh el-Sham (JFS), but many believe no real separation occurred.
Last January, JFS merged with four smaller Syrian jihadist factionsto form an umbrella organization called Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). It now dominates approximately two million people living in Syria’s northwestern Idlib province, the most populous area held by rebels.
HTS has seized upon the opportunity presented by the Syrian civil war to champion itself as a defender of the Syrian people, administering key social services and emerging as the strongest opposition force fighting the Assad regime. But U.S. intelligence officials assess that ultimately, the group still aligns itself with al Qaida’s worldview and maintains a long-term focus of attacking the West.

Read the full brief, with expert commentary from:

The Next Phase of America’s War in Syria
By Danny Sjursen, RealClearDefense: “This month, the Trump administration all but pledged itself to an open-ended nation-building operation in U.S.-occupied, northeast Syria. Given America’s uninspiring recent track record, this should concern us all.”

Cynicism in Syria
By Dominique Moisi, The Strategist (ASPI): “In his book The grand strategy of the Byzantine Empire, political scientist Edward Luttwak credits Byzantium’s longevity to the quality of its diplomacy. By relying on persuasion, alliances and containment, rather than force, Luttwak argues, the Eastern Roman Empire managed to last for eight centuries—twice as long as the Roman Empire from which it sprang.”

Turkey is succeeding in its campaign of imposing cost on pro-regime forces in northwestern Syria. Turkey’s recent deployment to reinforce the de-escalation zone in Idlib Province capitalizes on the divergent tactical prioritizations between Russia and Iran in Syria. Turkey will continue to prioritize this campaign in order to preserve a safe haven for the Syrian opposition in al Qaeda-dominated Idlib Province. - Institute for the Study of War

RUSSIAN STRATEGY
Earlier this week, the U.S. coalition says it killed an estimated 100 pro-Assad regime fighters in Syria in defense of its own troops. It’s the largest clash reported to date between U.S.-backed forces and pro-regime forces in Syria.

Here’s what happened, according to public statements given by actors involved:

About 500 pro-regime troops “initiated an unprovoked attack”against a Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) headquarters, where U.S. coalition advisors were working with the U.S.-backed fighters, according to statement from U.S. Central Command.
The exchange took place 5 miles east of the established Euphrates River de-confliction line, where the pro-regime forces had advanced “likely to seize oilfields in Khusham,” a U.S. official told Reuters.
Coalition and Russian officials were “in regular communication…before, during and after” the assault, the same official said. Russian officials assured the Coalition they would not engage coalition forces in the vicinity.

Is it that simple? What does “self-defense” mean in this instance? And what about Russian contractors that were spotted in the area?

We asked retired Admiral Sandy Winnefeld, former Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, for his take on the incident.

“It is easier for Russia to deny involvement in an action, particularly if there is collateral damage or human rights are violated, when it uses contractors who do not wear Russian military uniforms. It also lowers (in only a very small way) the likelihood of a confrontation with the U.S. if these forces come into contact.”

Read more of Winnefeld’s comments.

Far from winding down, Syria’s war escalates on multiple fronts

After seven years of war, Syrian opposition forces are struggling to stay relevant in a country that's been carved up into spheres of interest by major powers. They've been beaten by the government, betrayed by jihadists and al-Qaida, abandoned by the U.S. and routed by the Islamic State group in north Syria. Now in their alliance with Turkey, nearly 10,000 opposition fighters have turned their guns against Kurdish forces. - Fox News

HERE'S HOW TRUMP GAINS ON CHINA

2/5/2018

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson was showing "disdain" for China's approach to Latin American by saying that the far east nation was assuming the role of "new imperial powers" alongside Russia, a nationalistic Chinese newspaper said over the weekend. - CNBC

Tobin Harshaw and Daniel Moss write: Contrary to what you might read or hear, President Donald Trump alone hasn't surrendered U.S. strategic leadership in Asia to China. What he has done is accelerate long-term trends that have severely diminished America's position in the Western Pacific, an area where the U.S. had held sway largely unchallenged since World War II. - Bloomberg

John Schaus writes: Most notably, China’s leadership is leveraging its economic rise and growing military capabilities to pursue increasingly coercive policies and actions. Many countries throughout the region are looking for ways to diversify from the China-centric model being coercively peddled by Beijing and look to the United States to provide such an option. - Center for Strategic & International Studies

HOW TO UNDERSTAND RUSSIAN POLICY FOR 2018 & SYRIAN RUSSIAN RELATIONS

2/4/2018

Nina Khrushcheva on Russia in 2018 and Beyond
Nina Khrushcheva and PS editors discuss Russian politics, presidential elections, and why "Putinism" is a troubled ideology.

AL-MONITOR: KURDISH - RUSSIAN RELATIONS WITH TURKEY IN AFRIN

Russia's Military Lessons Learned From Syria
By Roger McDermott, Eurasia Daily Monitor: "The potential lessons the General Staff may glean from the complex variety of operational experience in Syria reveals something about the Russian approach to military science."

TRUMP THREATENS ASSAD: STOP CHEMCIAL ATTACKS OR U.S. WILL STRIKE WITH WMD

2/2/2018

Senior administration officials are warning that the Trump administration could take military action – again – against the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad because of its continued use of chemical weapons against its own people.

The two officials, speaking anonymously as a condition of the briefing, further warned that if Syria’s behavior is allowed to continue, it could serve as a green light to other bad actors that could spell a chemical attack on U.S. shores. And they’re holding Moscow responsible.
The two officials said Russia knows exactly what its client state Syria is doing, despite public protestations to the contrary, which are meant to sow doubt in the public with a wink at Washington. “They’re not trying to fool us. They know what we know,” one of the officials said. “They’re trying to fool you.”

Read today’s brief on the Trump administration’s stance on Syria—and the different paths the White House sees out of this nightmare.

"Syria and Russia Test Trump’s Red Line on Chemical Weapons," David Adesnik, FDD Policy Brief

"Germany Sold Technology to Iran for Use in Syrian Chemical Attacks," Benjamin Weinthal, The Jerusalem Post

WINEP’s Fabrice Balanche: Sectarianism in Syria's civil war
Commentary’s Noah Rothman on Trump and Syria’s gas attack victims