EMERGING THREATS U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY

BREXIT REIGNITES THE IRA: NATIONALISM SURGES IN IRELAND

2/17/2020

Ireland's Political Earthquake with Timothy D. Hoyt

Storms Over the Emerald Isle K. V. Turley
On the weekend of February 8, 2020, a storm ripped through Ireland. Storm Ciara was one of the worst of its kind for many years. Its winds, snows, and driving rains caused havoc with landslides and flooding. At the same time, a political storm ripped through the Irish political landscape. Sinn Féin up-ended the political […]

One Brexit effect is that the nation from which the Anglosphere ultimately derives is reassessing many of its most important relationships. Read More »

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TURKEY'S GROWING DOMESTIC & FOREIGN MESS HAMPERS REFORM AND US REGIONAL POLICY AIMS

2/16/2020

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TURKEY INVITES A NATO RESPONSE TO SYRIA? Read more here.

Turkey launches Operation Spring Shield against Syrian forces
Turkey downs two Syrian jets in launching Operation Spring Shield while also sending refugees to the Greek border.

Russia explores way to draw UAE, Saudi Arabia to its Syria policies
As relations with Turkey stall, Moscow seeks ways to engage with the Saudis and Emiratis to have them back in the Syrian game.

Idlib and the collapse of Erdogan’s foreign policy
Gambling on Russia to secure results in Syria turns out to be Ankara’s biggest miscalculation

Explaining Washington's New Pro-Ankara Policy by Seth Frantzman
The Jerusalem Post
February 12, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/60422/explaining-washington-new-pro-ankara-policy

Turkey's "Defense Line": An Ideological Front
By Irina Tsukerman, February 14, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Turkey's latest moves in Libya and the eastern Mediterranean should be viewed in the context of the recent Kuala Lumpur Summit, which announced the emergence of a new ideological bloc to counter Saudi Arabia consisting of Iran, Turkey, Qatar, and Malaysia. Turkey's new geopolitical strategy is as much ideological as it is "defensive."
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Fresh currency fears loom over Turkey
Despite a series of unconventional measures to keep hard currency prices in check, Turkey appears headed for fresh currency turmoil.
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AFRICAN CONTAINMENT OF MILITANTS, NOT COUNTER-TERROR IS NEW REGIONAL POLICY, WHERE TO PUT NEW INF MISSILES & THE SYRIAN REGIME HOLDS ON WITH AL-QAEDA REMNANTS

2/13/2020

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Does America Need an Africa Strategy? by Sam Wilkin

Al Qaeda’s West African branch seeks French withdrawal, then negotiations

Libya: Merkel Meets With Haftar. German Chancellor Angela Merkel met with LNA commander Khalifa Haftar in Berlin on Tuesday where Merkel stressed that a political solution is important to ending the conflict between the LNA and the GNA. Merkel’s spokesman Steffen Seibert stated, “a ceasefire and progress in the political process, in line with the decisions of the Berlin conference, are necessary.” Merkel reiterated that there can be no military solution to the conflict. Al Jazeera

SUDAN AGREES TO DEPORT FORMER LEADER TO ICC

Nigeria: Child Trafficking Syndicate Shut Down.  Nigerian police raided a “baby factory” on Thursday saving 24 babies and four expecting mothers. The illegal maternity homes hold pregnant women and attempt to sell their babies.  "In a covert operation on Tuesday, our men burst a child trafficking syndicate at Woji in Port Harcourt where 24 babies between the ages of one and two, and four pregnant teenagers were rescued," police said.  News 24

Sahel Region: African Union to Deploy 3,000 Troops.  The African Union said that it plans to deploy 3,000 troops to the Sahel region for about six months. "On the decision of the summit to work on deploying a force of 3,000 troops to help the Sahel countries degrade terrorist groups, I think this is a decision that we'll be working on together with the G5 Sahel and ECOWAS," head of the AU’s Peace and Security Commission said on Thursday. Many details, such as which countries will provide troops and who will fund the operation, have yet to be worked out.  Al Jazeera BBC News

Senegal: Al Qaeda and ISIS Affiliates Collaborate.  Al Qaeda and Islamic State groups may be cooperating in West Africa’s Sahel region and pose a threat to regional stability. “I believe that if it’s left unchecked it could very easily develop into a great threat to the West and the United States,” said U.S. Air Force General Dagvin Anderson.  Military Times

With limited resources, US military shifts strategy from degrading militants in West Africa to containment

(Military Times) Violence by militant groups in West Africa has spiked 250 percent over the last two years but constrained resources and manpower has pushed the U.S. military to switch strategies from degrading terror groups to containment, according to a recent inspector general report.

Where could the US put its post-INF missiles?
(Defense One) The Trump administration said leaving the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty would allow the development and deployment of strategically and tactically new missiles in the Pacific region. But it’s not at all clear that U.S. officials will be able to persuade its allies to accept these missiles in useful locations

Pentagon Slashes Funding for Islamic State Fight
By Jack Detsch, Al-Monitor: “The Pentagon’s request would slash funding for the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces to $200 million, down by a third from last year — money that will focus on “helping to provide wide-area security in liberated areas, addressing the ongoing [IS] threat, preventing [IS] re-emergence and setting conditions for long-term stability.””

SYRIA

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CHINA'S REFORM FLANK IS DEAD: THE VIRUS HOLLOWS OUT CHINESE REGIME

2/13/2020

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China’s Communist Party Struggles to Restore Credibility After Virus Outbreak

Coronavirus Proves Immune to Political Correctness
By BETSY McCAUGHEY, Special to the Sun | February 12, 2020
https://www.nysun.com/national/coronavirus-proves-immune-to-political-correctness/91009/

ASIA TIMES

MILLIONS OF BUSINESSES WIPED OUT

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IRAN: SOURCE OF YEMEN'S HUMANITARIAN CRISIS & HOW SOCIALISM RULES SOUTH AMERICA

2/13/2020

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Iran, Not Saudi Arabia, Is to Blame for Yemen's Humanitarian Crisis by Con Coughlin

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CHINA'S BIOLOGICAL WARFARE PROGRAM

2/5/2020

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The Political Effects of China’s Biological Chernobyl
By Bradley A. Thayer & Lianchao Han, RealClearDefense: "Much truth is revealed in a crisis. The continuing and ever-worsening effects of the coronavirus epidemic in China, and now the world, spark political facts about the true nature of the regime—how the country is really run—and why it caused a challenging problem to become a global catastrophe."

Shiro Ishii, commander of Unit 731, which performed live human vivisections and other biological experimentation

What America Can Learn From its Mistakes in Syria by Daphne McCurdy

Africa: The First U.S. Casualty of the New Information Warfare Against China by Caleb Slayton

The Grim Reality of the Cruel Seas by Claude Berub

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MOSCOW'S MESS: TURKISH INCURSIONS INTO SYRIA; A REVIEW OF TRUMP'S PEACE OFFERING TO ABBAS; LOOKING AT SALIFS ON THE SUBCONTINENT AND WHO REPLACES AL-SISTANI IN IRAQ?

2/5/2020

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Turkey faces potential Russian blowback on Syria — and tomatoes are only the beginning
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan finds himself in a tough spot with Russia as tensions in Syria have escalated dramatically. In a rare direct military confrontation between Turkish and Syrian regime forces, 14 Turkish soldiers and over 100 regime troops were killed in two separate clashes in Idlib over the past 10 days.
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RUSSIA, AFRICA:
Facing Few Obstacles and Scant Pushback, Russia Keeps Advancing in Africa
By Stephen Blank, Eurasia Daily Monitor: " According to numerous analyses published by think tanks and journals in the United States and Europe, Russia lost its African adventure before it even started."

The Result of 20 Years of Putin: Russia as a Mafia State
In January, Russia has gone through a political upheaval initiated by Vladimir Putin: proposal for constitutional reform, resignation of the government, appointment of a new cabinet. The pace and scale of these events led some commentators to call them a “constitutional coup.” However, if one is to follow the logic of the regime, the president’s latest decisions should not come as a surprise.

Nataliya Bugayova writes: Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a new phase in his campaign to retain power after 2024 when his current term expires. Putin offered Russians a revised social contract. Putin is reconfiguring the balance of power within the Russian government as he seeks to carve out an optimal spot for himself. Putin is in uncharted territory, trying to create a new transition model for Russia. […]His approach is working so far, with the Kremlin’s opposition disarmed and the public unclear on the net implications of the changes. – Institute for the Study of War

Zvi Bar’el writes: So far, Russia is relating to Erdogan’s statements with cold politeness while continuing to talk about combating terror. Turkey is still an important ally, particularly in the diplomatic battle Russia is waging against the United States, but Russia is keen on ending the war in Syria quickly, so it can cut its outlays and transfer full control to Assad. If Turkey is perceived as an obstacle in Russia’s way, their alliance may be enveloped by a dangerous winter frost. – Haaretz

Gonul Tol writes: While Turkey dials up its criticism of Moscow, Erdogan, who is desperate to attract European investment in the country’s troubled economy, has welcomed German Chancellor Angela Merkel.[…] Despite the long list of problems in Turkey-U.S. relations, the worst that many expected in the form of U.S. sanctions has not materialized yet. And Ankara is threading cautiously to make sure it stays that way. – Middle East Institute

Daniel Pipes writes: So, while transferring the Galilee Triangle from Israeli to Palestinian control looks like an elegant and simple win-win solution, it is sadly infeasible. The Israeli government has apparently rejected it. Of course, this topic drips with irony. The same Israeli Arabs who bluster contempt for the Jewish state and praise the murderers of Jewish children (note the extremists who serve as their parliamentary representatives) also desperately hope to stay in it rather than become part of Palestine. – Jerusalem Post

David Makovsky writes: The Trump plan’s parameters on borders and Jerusalem suggest that the administration has moved the U.S. position sharply in the direction of Israel’s current government. In the most hopeful scenario, the combination of a tough new U.S. approach and the initial openness of Arab states to consider the plan as a point of departure could jolt the Palestinians to decide that time is not on their side, perhaps leading the parties to resume talks and find suitable compromises. In a less hopeful scenario, Palestinian anger toward the plan proves too strong to dispel, and unilateral Israeli annexations in the West Bank produce broad international opposition to the plan, essentially ending any near-term prospects of negotiations or a two-state solution. – Washington Institute

Ghaith al-Omari writes: All previous U.S. plans envisioned a solution for the Palestinian refugee issue consistent with the idea of two states for two peoples. […]By radically departing from certain key tenets seen in previous initiatives, the Trump administration may have undermined its ability to build an international coalition in support of its plan. This was on clear display at the aforementioned Arab League and OIC meetings, and will probably continue to shape the diplomatic discourse in days to come. – Washington Institute

Bobby Ghosh writes: Iraq’s senior-most cleric has no militia, but his huge Shiite following makes his blessing essential for any prime minister. Sistani has expressed sympathy with the protests, opposes Iranian and American influences alike, and has called for a cleansing of country’s politics. Like the protesters, he believes the country needs fresh elections. – Bloomberg

Ibrahim Jalal writes: While the GPC works to resolve intra-party divisions and the Sanaa-based branch struggles to oppose Houthi orders as per Saleh’s last statement, the Gulf countries have made their bet, viewing the GPC as useful even in post-war Yemen. […]Looking ahead to Yemen’s post-war political landscape, another party must emerge from the ashes of war, to heal the grievances of the Yemeni people that have accumulated over the last decade. – Middle East Institute

Mohammed Sinan Siyech writes: Two lessons can be derived from the comparative study of Salafists in India and Pakistan. First, no religious ideology can be considered a harbinger of violence. If this were true, then Salafists who are normally decried as conveyor belts to violence would have turned violent in India. Second, political externalities play a more potent role in radicalizing and militarizing movements than do ideologies. It is for this reason that, broadly speaking, the very same dynamics that radicalize small segments of the Muslim population in Pakistan do the same for some Hindus in India. – Middle East Institute

Suleyman Ozeren, Suat Cubukcu, and Matthew Bastug write: However, as Erdogan runs into more challenges and loses his popular support, he will likely resort to more authoritarian measures to keep a grip on power. He may also double-down on the AKP’s revolutionary Islamist agenda—with disturbing implications for the search for order in the Middle East, for the security of Europe, and for the future of Turkey itself. – Hudson Institute

Kayla Koontz writes: Despite the introduction of a new assembly in 2018, Turkey’s October invasion of northeast Syria provided ample incentives for the launch of new investigations into HDP members protesting the operation. The targeting of the HDP has set new legal and political precedents that could undermine the political capacity of the opposition coalition as a whole and create ideological divisions over the so-called “Kurdish Question.” – Middle East Institute

Brandon Wallace writes: Allawi is unlikely to gather the political capital necessary to execute reforms or fair elections. Indeed, Iraqi political parties may have agreed to his premiership precisely because they would prefer a weak caretaker prior to elections. Political elite are more likely to repress protesters with a weak PM in office. However, the designation of Allawi furthers the very conditions that protesters are demonstrating against. – Institute for the Study of War

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EMERGING THREAT ASSESSMENT
GLOBAL STRIKE MEDIA.COM
NORTH AMERICA

BREXIT REIGNITES THE IRA: NATIONALISM SURGES IN IRELAND

TURKEY'S GROWING DOMESTIC & FOREIGN MESS HAMPERS REFORM AND US REGIONAL POLICY AIMS

AFRICAN CONTAINMENT OF MILITANTS, NOT COUNTER-TERROR IS NEW REGIONAL POLICY, WHERE TO PUT NEW INF MISSILES & THE SYRIAN REGIME HOLDS ON WITH AL-QAEDA REMNANTS

CHINA'S REFORM FLANK IS DEAD: THE VIRUS HOLLOWS OUT CHINESE REGIME

IRAN: SOURCE OF YEMEN'S HUMANITARIAN CRISIS & HOW SOCIALISM RULES SOUTH AMERICA

CHINA'S BIOLOGICAL WARFARE PROGRAM

MOSCOW'S MESS: TURKISH INCURSIONS INTO SYRIA; A REVIEW OF TRUMP'S PEACE OFFERING TO ABBAS; LOOKING AT SALIFS ON THE SUBCONTINENT AND WHO REPLACES AL-SISTANI IN IRAQ?

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EMERGING THREAT ASSESSMENTGLOBAL STRIKE MEDIA.COM NORTH AMERICA

BREXIT REIGNITES THE IRA: NATIONALISM SURGES IN IRELAND

TURKEY'S GROWING DOMESTIC & FOREIGN MESS HAMPERS REFORM AND US REGIONAL POLICY AIMS

AFRICAN CONTAINMENT OF MILITANTS, NOT COUNTER-TERROR IS NEW REGIONAL POLICY, WHERE TO PUT NEW INF MISSILES & THE SYRIAN REGIME HOLDS ON WITH AL-QAEDA REMNANTS

CHINA'S REFORM FLANK IS DEAD: THE VIRUS HOLLOWS OUT CHINESE REGIME

IRAN: SOURCE OF YEMEN'S HUMANITARIAN CRISIS & HOW SOCIALISM RULES SOUTH AMERICA

CHINA'S BIOLOGICAL WARFARE PROGRAM

MOSCOW'S MESS: TURKISH INCURSIONS INTO SYRIA; A REVIEW OF TRUMP'S PEACE OFFERING TO ABBAS; LOOKING AT SALIFS ON THE SUBCONTINENT AND WHO REPLACES AL-SISTANI IN IRAQ?

Archives

Categories

What Our Clients Are Saying

Contact Us

Subscribe Today!

EMERGING THREAT ASSESSMENT
GLOBAL STRIKE MEDIA.COM
NORTH AMERICA