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NORTH AMERICA 

the long war grows:  africa

2/21/2021

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Now Is the Time to Engage Al-Shabaab. Religious Leaders and Clan Elders Can Help. 
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The Sahelian Matrix Of Political Violence
by Heni Nsaibia, Clionadh Raleigh via The Caravan
The Sahel is one of the most active conflict theatres on the African continent and has become a major node in the "Global War on Terror'' over the past twenty years. After nearly a decade of foreign military intervention through overlapping counterterrorism, stabilization, and military and security training missions, the conflict is often referred to as a ''Forever War'' alongside other Western-led military interventions in the Middle East and Africa. As military campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan draw to a close, attention is increasingly shifting to Africa as the next battlefront— where the Sahel remains a key geopolitical dilemma.
Islamic State kills hundreds in massacres across the Sahel
Biden's Emerging Foreign Policy  L'Informale
February 19, 2021

http://www.danielpipes.org/20253/biden-emerging-foreign-policy

  • Somalia. Security is deteriorating in Somalia’s capital as the country faces a constitutional crisis. Al Shabaab is waging media and attack campaigns intended to capitalize on Somalis’ anti-government grievances.
  • Kenya. Al Shabaab is exerting increasing social control in parts of northeastern Kenya.
  • Ethiopia. The Tigray conflict in northern Ethiopia is escalating as regional forces challenge the federal government for control of the Tigray region’s capital. Tensions over contested territory are rising between Ethiopia and Sudan.
  • Sahel. Al Qaeda’s Sahel branch is expanding its networks in coastal West African countries. The group is also pressuring counterterrorism forces in Mali through attacks and propaganda while increasing its influence over civilian populations in central Mali.
  • Libya. Foreign militaries are becoming increasingly entrenched in Libya and remain likely spoilers to an enduring political resolution, despite short-term progress.
READ THE LATEST EDITION HERE
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BIDEN GETS ROLLED WITH FOREIGN POLICY

2/12/2021

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Biden Cannot Allow the Taliban to Destroy Trump's Peace Legacy
China, unquarantined
The coronavirus pandemic underscores the catastrophic consequences of setting the Chinese Communist Party loose in the liberal international order — but many other unfamiliar new threats also lie in store, explain Dan Blumenthal and Nicholas Eberstadt.
Beijing’s misapplication of international law in the disputed waters is more complex than it seems, explains Oriana Skylar Mastro.
READ MORE
Russia seeks to outplay the US in Libya
While Russia's preferred candidates lost in last week's vote for interim leadership in Libya, Moscow still has a strategy for reinforcing its influence in the country.
 
Turkey’s risk grade far from safe
Turkey’s risk premium has sharply decreased over the past several months, but an array of economic and political factors threatens to undo the trend.
What’s next for Turkey in Libya after election of new interim leaders?
 Universal goodwill messages to Libya’s new interim leadership indicate how complex the Libyan file has become for all foreign actors in the country ahead of potentially clamorous elections in December.
Russia, Iran compete for influence in Syria via private security companies
 Private security companies in Syria with ties to Russian and Iranian forces are busily recruiting young men with attractive salaries.
BIDEN'S DOD ON CHINA:  here.  readout of the phone call. 
Want to Redefine Readiness? Here's Where to Start // Seamus Daniels: Two Joint Chiefs are on the right track.
Pentagon Launches China Policy Review.  President Biden launched a Department of Defense task force to evaluate the United States-China rivalry and produce comprehensive China policy recommendations in the next four months.  Al Jazeera Axios South China Morning Post  ​
DOD Budget Battles Loom Over Nukes.  Progressive lobbyists and advocates for nuclear disarmament are pressuring the Biden administration to curtail the Air Force’s plans to upgrade its 400 Minuteman III nuclear missile arsenal.  The fight over the 100 million dollar ‘Ground Based Strategic Deterrent Contract’ is expected to be the most contentious DOD budget fight this year.  Politico
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CHINA & THE BIDEN'S

2/6/2021

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    Peering into crystal ball; future of war
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    salafi-jihadi-ecosystem-in-the-sahel.pdf
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    BEYOND COUNTER-TERRORISM
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    HOW THE SALIFI-JIHADI MOVEMENT IS WINNING
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