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NORTH AMERICA 

NIGERIA.....TOMORROW

2/24/2023

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For the Africa in Transition blog, CFR’s Michelle Gavin discusses the continental implications of Nigeria’s general elections.
A Time for American Stability—and Power
Great Leap Nowhere: The Challenges of China’s Semiconductor Industry,
Special Operations Forces Require Greater Proficiency in Artificial Intelligence
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SAUDI NUCLEAR AMBITIONS AS IRAN GOES NUCLEAR.......

2/21/2023

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David P. Goldman on the New, New Middle East: China, Iran, and Turkey
by Marilyn Stern
Middle East Forum Webinar
February 27, 2023

https://www.meforum.org/64214/david-p-goldman-on-the-new-new-middle-east-china
Analysis of IAEA Iran Verification and Monitoring Report – February 2023
Iran Enriched Uranium to Near Atomic-Weapons Grade, IAEA Confirm
Saudi Nuclear Ambitions Could Upend the Middle East
China Has More ICBM Nuke Launchers Than The US, General Warns
The Sino-American Rivalry In The Middle East: Why The United States Can’t Neglect The Middle East In Its Global Confrontation Against China
Writing in Foreign Affairs, Kori Schake criticizes President Joe Biden’s foreign policy and identifies what she says is “a troubling disconnect between the administration’s stated priorities and its conduct.” According to Schake, American leaders have failed to coordinate economic policy, defense spending, and diplomacy in support of their ambitious yet somewhat contradictory strategy for countering China.
Why Israel’s chaotic protests are proof that its democracy works
Is Israel’s democracy in danger? You betcha, but if you think the bad guy is Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, think again. Usually, making sense of…
‘Chip War’
By Robert Wihtol, The Strategist (ASPI): “The ‘Malacca dilemma’ is generally considered to top China’s list of strategic concerns."

Incubators of Sea Power:
Naval Combat Training in the PLA Surface Fleet

By Ryan D. Martinson, CIMSEC: "Basic training conducted at Vessel Training Centers (VTCs) is essential to PLAN preparations for high-end conflict in maritime East Asia, which is the primary focus of China’s current military strategy."

PLA Information Warfare and Military Diplomacy:
A Primer on Modernization Trends

By Patrick Cunningham, Small Wars Journal: "The opening remarks of the 2022 National Defense Strategy (NDS) highlight the views held by many leaders within the United States on the current security environment: that “we are living in a decisive decade,” that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) “remains our most consequential strategic competitor” for the foreseeable future . . ."
Best Solution for U.S Military and Economy is More Domestic Energy Supply,
Not Disjointed Climate Lawsuits

By Robert Carey, RealClearDefense: ““While it is important to continue to look for ‘greener’ ways to fuel the military, the reality is the U.S. military must always take into account its enemies’ own fossil-fuel uses and potential superior deployment abilities because of those uses."
Iran Enriching Uranium to Near Weapons-Grade
In a courageous 1933 lecture, Wilhelm Röpke explained the value of liberalism—a message still worth considering today.
READ MORE ›
The First Minister thought the trans issue would pave the road to Scottish independence. Instead, it showed her the door.
READ MORE ›
John Carroll's eulogies in honor of George Washington serve as a correction to the narrative of an anti-Catholic American Founding.
READ MORE ›
Secure Communities: Stopping the Salafi-Jihadi Surge in Africa
The Next Salafi-Jihadi Wave: Capabilities, Resources, and Opportunity
The Underestimated Insurgency: African States at Risk for Salafi-Jihadi Insurgencies
The Underestimated Insurgency, Continued: Salafi-Jihadi Capabilities and Opportunities in Africa
U.S. and Allies Should Target Top Iranian Executives
  • "U.S. Takes Action to Stem Iran’s Drone Capabilities," FDD Experts, FDD Flash Brief
  • Iran reveals an underground air force base, IRNA says
Rep. Adam Smith: U.S. Military Readiness a ‘Huge Problem’
By Julia Mueller, The Hill: "“This is a huge problem. And we don’t have the industrial base. And we don’t have the ability to ramp up that industrial base.”"
Integrated Deterrence Requires a Unique Intelligence Mindset
By Itai Shapira, RealClearDefense: "The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) is placing much emphasis on the concept of Integrated Deterrence, which should be executed through a ‘mindset of campaigning’ in the context of strategic competition."
The Federal Reserve Needs to Pause Raising Interest Rates
Desmond Lachman | 19fortyfive.com
When the Federal Reserve meets next week, it would do well to recall two of Milton Friedman’s fundamental economic teachings.

Full Story
Jonathan Schanzer: The Abraham Accords and Jordan's Unsustainable Position
by Marilyn Stern
Middle East Forum Webinar
January 13, 2023

https://www.meforum.org/64063/jonathan-schanzer-the-abraham-accords-and-jordan
National Strategy for Countering North Korea
U.S. Defense Industry Unprepared for a China Fight
By Joe Gould, Defense News: “The U.S. defense-industrial base is not ready for a battle over Taiwan . . ."
National Strategy for Countering North Korea
By Robert Joseph, Robert Collins, Joseph DeTrani, Nicholas Eberstadt, Olivia Enos, David Maxwell & Greg Scarlatoiu, National Institute for Public Policy: "Since the emergence of the nuclear threat from North Korea in the early 1990s, the primary objective of U.S. policy has been to convince Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear weapons program."
Who Will Be the Next Turkish Opposition Party Leader Arrested?
The State Department’s Disingenuous Defiance of Congress on Somalia
RUSSIA HAS NO NCO'S FATAL FLAW
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CHINESE BALLOONS MEAN BEIJING'S WAR PREPARATION; ISLAMIC AUTOCRACIES & ILLICIT DRUGS

2/15/2023

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China Now Has More ICBM Launchers Than US: Military Report
CHINA PREPARES FOR WAR WITH U.S.
National Strategy for Countering North Korea
North Korea’s Political Warfare Strategy Has Failed: ROK – U.S. Alliance Needs A Superior Strategy
Captagon: Assad’s Deadly Drug Of Choice Expands To Israel
Secure Communities: Stopping the Salafi-Jihadi Surge in Africa
 Emily Estelle Perez | February 2023

  • The next Salafi-jihadi terror threat to the West may originate in Africa. Insurgencies linked to al Qaeda and the Islamic State have formed, re-formed, spread, and grown entrenched on the continent over the past two decades. As Salafi-jihadi groups mature, they gain capabilities that they can marshal toward both local and international goals. Counterterrorism interventions have failed to secure communities, allowing Salafi-jihadi groups to capitalize repeatedly on conflicts and grievances to establish and expand their presence.

  • Africa is an increasingly important theater for geopolitical competition. The same conditions that benefit Salafi-jihadi groups also create openings for malign actors like the Russian Wagner Group. US policymakers should treat community security like public health, as a service provided to civilians that benefits Americans and Africans alike and helps maintain the world order that undergirds US freedom, safety, and prosperity.

  • An approach focused on securing communities should not require intervening everywhere at a large scale, but rather smart investments in preventive action and refocusing counterterrorism responses. The United States should work with African partners to develop policy approaches for preventing Salafi-jihadi insurgencies from forming whenever possible and containing or rolling them back when necessary. These approaches will require changing the focus and risk tolerance of US security policy in Africa while reforming interagency coordination to facilitate this new approach.
READ MORE
Russia Against The Rest
The Next Salafi-Jihadi Wave: Capabilities, Resources, and Opportunity
The Underestimated Insurgency: African States at Risk for Salafi-Jihadi Insurgencies
The Underestimated Insurgency, Continued: Salafi-Jihadi Capabilities and Opportunities in Africa
This In Brief explains why the IMF bailout won’t be the end of Pakistan’s economic woes.
Pakistani Taliban: The Most Powerful Anti-State Actor in the Country​
The Promise and Pitfalls of Underwater Domain Awareness, by Abhijit Singh
Steven B. Kamin, Carlos Arteta, and Franz Ulrich Ruch summarize the three types of shocks that drove US interest rate hikes in the past year, threatening the economic health of developing economies. Desmond Lachman warns that, contrary to popular belief among world leaders, China abandoning its zero-COVID policy is not enough to turn around its serious economic woes, which are bound substantially harm the global economy.
DOJ Reveals New Iran-backed Assassination Attempt on Iranian American Journalist
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BIDEN STALLS ON BEIJING; FDD THINK TANK TACKLES IRANIAN NUKE PROGRAM;

2/15/2023

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China's Balloon Reveals the Weaknesses in US National Security Decision-Making
by Lawrence A. Franklin
Iranian Nationalists Reject the Regime
​
It‘s no longer true that a Western military strike would lend the theocracy stronger domestic support.
 Reuel Marc Gerecht | Senior Fellow
MARBURG VIRUS DOMINATES WEST AFRICA is the country’s first outbreak (WHO) 
Pakistan’s power crisis.
When the Same North Korea Policy Fails Over and Over Again​
Saudi Nuclear Ambitions Could Upend the Middle East
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And there are steps the U.S. can take to ward them off.
 Andrea Stricker | Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program Deputy Director and Research Fello
By Behnam Ben Taleblu FDD
Read Full Monograph
When will Saudi Arabia Sign Peace with Israel?
​
Saudi Arabia's new policy, Vision 2030, requires a newer foreign policy on Palestinians
The Case for Japanese Land Power in the First Island Chain, by Yusuke Kawachi
The Defense Industrial Base Is America’s Diplomatic Ace in the Hole. Let’s Use It.
How To Bring Innovation to America’s Nuclear Strategy
By Leonor Tomero, Defense News: "The United States should adopt a new nuclear strategy of innovation for deterrence resilience."
In China, a Web of Actors Weave Foreign Policy
By Carlo J.V. Caro, The Diplomat: "Beijing is often framed as a unitary actor, but the reality is that many actors influence policy decisions."
  • WINEP’s Soner Cagaptay: How will Turkey’s earthquake affect the current election cycle?
America’s Diplomatic Neglect Compounds Fighting in Somalia
Michael Rubin | 19fortyfive.co
  • Militant in Iran identified as al-Qaeda’s probable new chief in U.N. report
Kitaneh Fitzpatrick, Zachary Coles, Annika Ganzeveld, Jonathan Baumel, and Frederick W. Kagan write: Former Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is positioning himself to reenter the public arena after a period of relative absence. Iran-backed militias have recently withdrawn from military positions in Deir ez-Zour Province and may redeploy to Aleppo Province.[…]Iranian media outlets recirculated Parliamentarian Shahryar Heydari’s January 15 announcement that Iran will soon receive an unspecified number of Su-35 fighter jets. President Ebrahim Raisi signed 20 agreements on Sino-Iranian in Beijing on February 14. – Institute for the Study of War  

Younes Abouyoub writes: This changes the geopolitical balance and the close relationship that the United States, given its long-standing dependence on energy imports, had developed with MENA countries since World War II.[…]The turn of MENA energy-exporting countries towards the Asian market, with the growing economic and political power of states like China and India, has created new opportunities for exporters to impose themselves as major players as clean energy geopolitics grow in importance, thus mitigating as much as possible the potential loss in terms of geopolitical influence induced by the energy transition. – Middle East Institute   ​
America and China: Whose Timeline Is It, Anyway?
Dustin Walker | Breaking Defense
Attempts to answer the question of whether and when China will invade Taiwan are clouding rather than clarifying America’s national security debate. Dustin Walker explains that it is past time for policymakers and military leaders to stop speculating about China’s timeline for war and focus on America’s timeline for deterring it. American leaders must recognize that the US has entered an indefinite window of concern in which the possibility of war with China and the plausibility of American defeat are present and future realities. This indefinite threat of war collapses and confounds America's decision making when it is creating strategies to combat the near-, medium-, and long-term threats. The Pentagon needs a cohesive strategy for mitigating risk across all time frames. Learn more here. >>
Intention, Not Capacity
​
The White House’s new way of seeing the Iranian bomb.
The Iran Nuclear Deal Isn’t Dead
​
The State Department is fighting to keep it alive, even if an agreement benefits Russia and China.
Wagner’s Next Targets in Africa: Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Ivory Coast
Secure Communities: Stopping the Salafi-Jihadi Surge in Africa
U.S. Begins Forging Rare Earth Supply Chain
By Mikayla Easley, National Defense Magazine: “. . . over the last three decades, Beijing has held an iron grip on the world’s supply chain for rare earth elements such that nearly all materials — no matter where in the world they are mined — travel to China for refinement"
Opposition to L3Harris-Aerojet Deal Part of Broader Anti-Trust Trend
From Army Technology: "The U.S. defense industry being almost totally controlled by five major companies is increasingly a point of regulatory and political contention.”
US-China Trade Sets Records
Derek Scissors | AEIdeas
We’re not standing up to China, and we’re not going too far. We’re not doing anything of consequence—as 2022 trade shows, again.

Full Story
US Indo-Pacific Policy Prioritizes Security over Economics
Claude Barfield | East Asia Forum
​

Tyler Cowen on the State of the Great Stagnation, Pro-Progress Policy, Metascience, and More
James Pethokoukis | Faster, Please!
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PAKISTAN'S DOMESTIC TERROR AGENCY HITS AGAIN; NIGERIA'S ELECTIONS; THE PRC PROVOCATION

2/2/2023

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AEI’s Michael Rubin: Wagner’s next targets in Africa: Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Ivory Coast
IRAN SMUGGLES AGENTS INTO  U.S.  New York Post
Israel’s Illiberal Judiciary
by ronen shovalSince Israeli elites cannot control society through the political process, they have looked for other ways.
READ MORE ›
Why Do Iranians Hate the Mujahedin-e-Khalq So Much?
Michael Rubin | Washington Examiner
The Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) significantly escalated its attack campaign against the Pakistani state with a major suicide bombing targeting police in northwestern Pakistan on January 30 .  READ MORE >>
SEE FULL UPDATE
Maps from the past week
See more maps tracking Salafi-Jihadi movements in Africa, the Middle East and Central/South Asia >
Emerging ‘Offset-X’ Strategy Addresses Chinese Threat
The Quiet War between Israel and Iran
Iran's Hegemonic Drive by Jonathan Schanzer
Middle East Quarterly

Winter 2023 (view PDF)

https://www.meforum.org/63850/the-quiet-war-between-israel-and-iran
The China Syndrome
It is the Communist Party’s Maoist vision that is imploding from internal contradictions, not that of Western democracy.
  • Festina Lente by Seth Cropsey
Air Force Intel Officer Had Hundreds of Classified and Secret Files at His Florida Home
By Thomas Novelly, Military.com: "A retired Air Force intelligence officer accepted a plea deal with federal prosecutors last year admitting to illegally possessing hundreds of top secret and classified documents, according to court records filed Friday."
In an article in the Emirati daily Al-Arab, Lebanese columnist Khairallah Khairallah discusses the deep crisis Lebanon is experiencing and states that 2022 was one of the hardest years in its history. The Arabs, he adds, regard Lebanon as a failed state and an Iranian base hostile to all the countries in the region. The world likewise ascribes no importance to Lebanon, says Khairallah, seeing it as a country that is effectively ruled by Hizbullah. He states that Lebanon’s tragedy will only end when Iran’s Rule of the Jurisprudent regime ceases to exist and the region undergoes a profound transformation. – Middle East Media Research Institute ​
Simon Henderson writes: With former prime minister Imran Khan actively trying to undermine the present government of Shehbaz Sharif — whose brother Nawaz was overthrown in Musharraf’s initial 1999 coup — it can be difficult to work out Pakistan’s imminent future. […]One hope may be that Saudi Arabia will write an even larger check than currently half-promised.  At best that would be a temporary solution. Musharraf’s life story encapsulates Pakistan’s struggle to relate to the U.S. and stop the nation from spiraling downward. – The Hill
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