EMERGING THREATS U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY - CounterStrikeMedia

european surge?

3/31/2016

European surge. A year from now, there will be thousands more U.S. soldiers stationed in Eastern Europe. And they’re bringing their tanks, howitzers, and armored Bradley infantry carriers with them.

Pentagon officials have long talked about their plan to rotate a third Army brigade in and out of Europe to bolster the two brigades already there. The plan was for the third brigade to move around Eastern Europe conducting training exercises with local allies nervously watching their borders for the next potential Russian provocation. On Wednesday, the U.S. European Command added a new wrinkle to the plan, announcing that this new armored brigade will bring its own tanks and other equipment along, instead of falling in on a prepositioned set of combat-ready equipment already on the continent. The move will add hundreds of the Army’s most advanced tanks, cannons, and other ground vehicles to the force. It will also free up an entire brigade’s worth of weapons currently being used by American forces training on the continent, which will be stored in Belgium, the Netherlands and Germany in the event that more U.S. troops need to be rushed to the continent on short notice.

The Pentagon currently has about 65,000 troops assigned to the U.S. European Command, down from about 200,000 during the height of the Cold war in the 1980s. Then new deployments will be paid for using the European Reassurance Initiative, for which the White House requested $3.4 billion in its 2017 budget submission to Congress. The plan’s 2016 budget was $800 million.

the iranians enter u.s. financial system

3/31/2016

FPI: http://www.foreignpolicyi.org/content/fpi-bulletin-iran-may-gain-access-us-financial-system

wsj mary kissel, michael ledeen, foundation for defense democracies: obama's cuba & foreign policy achievements

3/29/2016

iranian evolution in war tactics

3/28/2016

AEI: http://www.aei.org/publication/irans-evolving-way-of-war-how-the-irgc-fights-in-syria/?utm_source=paramount&utm_medium=email&utm_content=AEITODAY&utm_campaign=032816

cold war retro: sending in u2 spy; to russia with love

3/28/2016

It feels like 1960 all over again. U.S. European Command chief Gen. Philip Breedlove is asking the Pentagon to send U-2 spy planes to Europe to provide additional intelligence on the Russian buildup there. Breedlove says the high-flying surveillance plane, first introduced in 1957, is needed alongside RC-135 reconnaissance aircraft to augment intelligence capabilities on the continent. While there's no suggestion that Washington plans to make U-2 flights over Russian territory, the Twitter account of Russia's embassy in Canada simply couldn't resist referencing the Francis Gary Powers incident, in which Soviet air defenses shot down a CIA U-2 flying over Yekaterinburg.

libya: beginning offense game plan

3/28/2016

A leaked memo from a briefing given to a U.S. lawmaker in January by Jordan's King Abdullah reveals plans for Jordanian special operations forces to operate in Libya alongside their counterparts from Britain's Special Air Service (SAS). Under the plan, Jordanian troops would help the SAS with language skills as "Jordanian slang is similar to Libyan slang," according to the document. The memo contains a number of other intelligence leaks, including Jordan's wish to let certain jihadist websites stay up and running in order to collect intelligence, and the king's view that Israel turns a blind eye to the al Qaeda-linked Nusra Front because of its combat effectiveness against Hezbollah in Syria. Abdullah also told legislators that he believes Turkish policy endorses the movement of terrorists into Europe.

ISIS Changing: the report

3/28/2016

“Is ISIS Decentralizing?” (Mona Alami, MENASource)

“There is no doubt that the organization is under pressure and exhausted by the US-led coalition. Its degraded capability will force the organization to revert to its usual playbook. First, the organization will resort to terrorist campaigns against civilians whether in the West or in its so-called caliphate. The Brussels attacks aims at polarizing Western societies and triggering an indiscriminate backlash against Muslims living what it terms the ‘far abroad.’ The organization’s objective is to weaken Muslims’ identification with their countries of citizenship and reinforce the ‘us versus them’ narrative. The return of fighters to countries of origin -- over 400, according to media reports -- grouped in cells trained for bombing and counterintelligence operations herald the establishment of a network largely autonomous from its mother organization in Iraq and Syria. A similar strategy of terror campaigning has been applied by the organization in Iraq where the organization launched a series of attacks between February 25 and February 29.”

Chairman Joint Chiefs "Send More Troops"
Gen. Joseph Dunford, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, announced on Friday that he and Defense Secretary Ash Carter have recommended that the U.S. send more troopsto the fight against the Islamic State in Iraq. The recent death of a U.S. Marine at a then-undisclosed firebase in Iraq involved in direct combat revealed that the Pentagon's hasn't exactly been straight about the extent of U.S. operations in the country. The additional troops would add to the nominal 3,870-troop limit on U.S. forces in Iraq, which is actually closer to 5,000 when “temporary” deployments are added to the figure.

richard nixon in japan

3/27/2016

AEI: http://www.aei.org/publication/underrated-shinzo-abe/?utm_source=paramount&utm_medium=email&utm_content=AEITODAY&utm_campaign=032516

Russia In Japan
Russia will this year deploy some of its newest missile defense systems and drones on the Kurile islands where Moscow and Tokyo have rival territorial claims, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said on Friday. - Reuters

Japan's Response
Japan just opened a radar facility on Yonaguni island in the East China Sea near Taiwan, Reuters reports. The facility is close to a set of disputed islands claimed by both Japan and China (labeled Senkaku by Japan and Diaoyu by China). The station would provide Japan with a clearer picture of activity in the region and is likely intended to help keep an eye on Chinese military activity. The move is likely to annoy China, which the U.S. and Japan have criticized for "militarizing" the South China Sea by deploying anti-ship missiles, fighter jets, air defense systems, and advanced radars to a series of disputed islands in the South China Sea.

why its over for China

3/27/2016

AEI: http://www.aei.org/publication/overrated-xi-jinping/?utm_source=paramount&utm_medium=email&utm_content=AEITODAY&utm_campaign=032516

update: arab oil

3/27/2016

Global oil prices are projected to scrape along at $40 a barrel or less through 2016, continuing to hammer economies in Saudi Arabia, Russia and other nations — and thus altering global politics — despite the producers' efforts to limit output and counter the slump. – Washington Times

russia & tunisia

3/27/2016

The Russian government has reportedly pledged to provide helicopters, night-vision goggles and bullet-proof vests to Tunisian security forces to fight al-Qaida and the Islamic State group in North Africa. – Defense News

video of brussels bombing & europe's dangerous delusions

3/24/2016

NY Daily News & AEI: http://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/james-kirchick-europe-dangerous-delusion-article-1.2573893

u.s. cannot put itself on total war footing

3/23/2016

Gen. Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told lawmakers Tuesday that the United States military currently is not prepared or capable across all the service branches of addressing the threats facing the country. – Washington Free Beacon

FPI: Review of All U.S. Services http://www.foreignpolicyi.org/content/fpi-bulletin-military-readiness-peril

Anti-ballistic nuclear umbrella for Europe, korea

3/23/2016

Defense News: http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/land/army/2016/03/22/army-weighing-thaad-deployments-europe-middle-east/82127616/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=New%20Campaign&utm_term
=%2ASituation%20Report

A possible deployment of the Army’s Terminal High Altitude Area Defense System to South Korea is still being discussed, but the service is also looking at possibly sending THAAD batteries to the European and Central Command areas of operations, the commanding general of Army Space and Missile Defense Command said. – Defense News

ralph peters: the kind of war the u.s. isn't ready for, analysis on the culture preventing success

3/22/2016

Ralph Peter, Hoover http://www.hoover.org/research/us-ground-forces-not-ready-big-war

iran's war against "the great satan"

3/22/2016

FPM: http://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/262224/irans-war-against-america-bruce-thornton

Max Boot writes: The U.S. is not bound by the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, as the Iran deal is formally known. It is an executive agreement, not a treaty. Obama signed this piece of paper with the support of perhaps one-third of Congress and one-third of the country at large. The next president could announce that he (or she!) is reimposing sanctions on Iran until such time as the mullahs agree to terminate, rather than simply to temporarily suspend, their nuclear-weapons program. – Hoover Institution’s Strategika

brussels: total intelligence assessment

3/22/2016

FPI: http://www.foreignpolicyi.org/content/fpi-bulletin-brussels-attacks-demonstrate-global-isis-threat

Names RELEASED OF SUSPECTS
Latest on Brussels. Belgian security forces are still scrambling to hunt down a suspect in Tuesday’s deadly bombing of the airport and a subway station in Brussels. The two suicide bombers have been identified as brothers with long criminal records. The pair, Khalid el-Bakraoui, 27, and Ibrahim el-Bakraoui, 30, have been on the radar of Belgian police since a March 15 raid on an apartment in the city. Belgian news outlets namedNajim Laachraoui as the third man involved in the attack seen at the airport in addition to the el-Bakraoui brothers. Laachraoui is reportedly linked to the Paris attacks. There are conflicting reports about whether a man arrested by Belgian authorities on Wednesday in Anderlecht was Laachraoui. The attacks killed over 30 people and left about 250 others injured.

Why Brussels is Ground Zero for Europe: Gatestone
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/7677/belgium-jihadists

SUSPECTS SOUGHT, Infographic Pictures
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/belgian-authorities-identify-attackers-as-pair-of-brothers-as-manhunt-continues/2016/03/23/0c79c1ae-f064-11e5-a2a3-d4e9697917d1_story.html

“Brussels’ Big Terrorism Problem” (Clint Watts, Foreign Policy Research Institute)

“The failure to detect and interdict the Paris attacks in November seemed to point to a problem of capacity. European countries, having stood by and watched for years as their angry boys were radicalized and recruited into the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, seemed to have far too many terrorism suspects and resulting leads to manage. The volume of potential terrorists to cover seemingly exceeded the capacity of European authorities. In November, I discussed the ‘Iceberg Theory’ of terrorist plots, where for the eight to ten Paris attackers, ‘we should look for two, three, or possibly four dozen extremist facilitators and supporters between Syria and France.’ Today I suspect we are seeing more of Europe’s terrorism iceberg. Last week’s arrest of Abdelslam and today’s failure to detect and disrupt a major terrorist attack similar to that of Paris suggests a far more ominous counterterrorism problem in Europe -- incompetence. Belgian authorities arrested Abdelslam in Molenbeek, an area swept repeatedly by counterterrorism authorities in recent months. The arrest of Abdelslam should have immediately triggered an intense buildup in law enforcement activity to disrupt a likely retaliatory attack. Additionally, today’s attacks at the airport and in the subway system used suicide missions armed with explosives. The use of explosives suggests that a significant terrorist facilitation network likely remains in Europe empowering attacks al Qaeda always dreamed of executing but for which they lacked the operational support capability.”

iran

3/22/2016

Saeed Ghasseminejad writes: Khamenei’s choice for Tabasi’s two replacements are clear signs that while the radicals might have lost a few seats in last month’s parliamentary election, they are consolidating their grip over crucial levers of Iran’s economy and remain those best poised to reap the bonanza that the nuclear agreement will soon yield. Those hoping that the deal will embolden moderates in the Islamic Republic will again be sorely disappointed. – The National Interest

Brussels Hit with terrorism

3/22/2016

Three bombs have exploded in Brussels this morning, two targeting Zaventem Airport and one that struck a subway station in the Maalbeek neighborhood, near several European Union offices. Belgian officials have confirmed that the bombings are terrorist attacks and that at least one of the explosions at the airport was a suicide bomber. At least 21 people have been reported killed so far, according to fire authorities in Brussels. Though the Islamic State has not asserted responsibility for the attack, backers of the group have expressed support for the attacks on social media. The blasts come days after a series of police raids in Brussels last week in which an Algerian militant, Mohamed Belkaid, was killed in a shootout, and Salah Abdeslam, one of the Paris attackers, was arrested. Other militants believed to have been trained in Syria escaped the raids, and yesterday reporting on Abdeslam’s interrogation noted that Belgian authorities had discovered the Islamic State’s operations in Europe were larger than previously realized.

NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/23/world/europe/brussels-airport-explosions.html?_r=1

u.s. encircles china

3/21/2016

This is how geographers & strategists see China
U.S. and Philippine officials recently reached agreement to allow U.S. forces to have access to five Philippine military bases -- some on the disputed South China Sea. Access to the bases -- which include four air bases and one army outpost -- will mark the first time American forces will be able to operate in the country in a quarter century. Significantly, among the bases is Antonio Bautista Air Base on the western island of Palawan, which sits by the South China Sea, thereby giving American aircraft quick access to the contested waterway and improving their ability to fly surveillance missions.

China Reacts
The U.S. now has an official green light for new military bases in the Philippines but China is less than thrilled about the development. Washington and Manila officially inked a deal for American access to five bases last week, marking a return for American forces which left the country in the early 1990s. U.S. officials have emphasized that they don't view the basing agreement in the Philippines as offensive or aimed at China, but Beijing doesn't necessarily see it that way. China's foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying, in a veiled dig at the U.S. Navy's stated concerns about China's "militarization" of the South China Sea, wondered aloud, "can [the U.S.] explain whether its own increased military deployment in the region is equivalent to militarization?"

farc history: the near accord

3/21/2016

Geopolitical Monitor
http://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/colombia-on-the-verge-of-historic-farc-peace-deal/

The prospect of peace might be a national question in Colombia, but it is a very personal one in this camp. Will the fighters return to the villages they once knew? Will they reunite with children abandoned years ago, children who are now adults themselves? – New York Times

About a quarter-million children in Colombia have been displaced by fighting in the past three years of peace negotiations between the government and the country’s leading guerrilla group, the United Nations said in a report released Saturday. – New York Times

Members of Colombia's Marxist FARC guerrillas will meet U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry in Cuba, a spokeswoman for Colombia's government peace negotiators said on Sunday, adding a twist to a historic visit to the island by U.S. President Barack Obama. - Reuters

u.s. trade deficit & jobs

3/18/2016

AEI: http://www.aei.org/publication/the-trade-deficit-does-not-cost-us-jobs/

AEI: http://www.aei.org/publication/trump-is-completely-wrong-about-the-us-trade-deficit/?utm_source=paramount&utm_medium=email&utm_content=AEITODAY&utm_campaign=031816

iran's war against u.s.a.

3/17/2016

Hoover: http://www.hoover.org/research/irans-war-against-america?utm_source=hdr&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=2016-03-17

Kori Schake writes: The Rouhani government seems to be emulating China’s approach of attempting to forestall political change with prosperity. Nearly all his policy efforts have focused on ending Western sanctions and encouraging foreign investment. The Iran nuclear deal has unfrozen $10 billion of Iranian assets and allowed oil exports to resume. Whether Iran’s government is fleet enough to outrun its citizens aspirations will likely determine whether Iran remains a revolutionary power or gains the state legitimacy on offer from the West. – Hoover Institution’s Strategika

Max Boot writes: The U.S. is not bound by the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, as the Iran deal is formally known. It is an executive agreement, not a treaty. Obama signed this piece of paper with the support of perhaps one-third of Congress and one-third of the country at large. The next president could announce that he (or she!) is reimposing sanctions on Iran until such time as the mullahs agree to terminate, rather than simply to temporarily suspend, their nuclear-weapons program. – Hoover Institution’s Strategika

russia & Tajikistan hold joint moves

3/17/2016

Russia, Tajikistan hold joint military exercise near Afghan border

Russia and Tajikistan began holding a joint military exercise near the Afghan border on Wednesday, which will continue for six days (TOLO News). Russian Defense Minister Sergey Kuzhugetovich Shoygu told reporters: “the Russian and Tajik military forces are doing exercises to foil militant group attacks, eliminate their strongholds and other relevant practices.” The operation involves 50,000 Tajik and 2,000 Russian forces. The exercise was welcomed by some Afghan parliamentarians who saw it as demonstrating Russian interest in Afghan security. Faruq Majroh, an Afghan member of parliament, stated: “Russia has realized that a number of its citizens are involved in the Afghan war and are extremist and dangerous individuals, therefore, the operations have been launched for several purposes.”

rebuilding government: libya

3/16/2016

Libyan Reconciliation Government Ready to Assume Power

The reconciliation government in Libya, called the Government of National Accord, announced over the weekend that it had received the endorsement of the majority of the previous internationally-recognized government and was now ready to assume power. The statement is the culmination of months of political jockeying to reach a compromise between feuding rival governments. The Government of National Accord says they will now try to move to Tripoli to take control of the country. An advance team for the government was detained and accused of plotting a coup, but there have also been some positive signs in negotiations with local militias, at least one of which has agreed to restore access to critical oil fields.