Recalibrating U.S. Strategy Toward Russia:
A New Time for Choosing 
From Center for Strategic and International Studies: “A new CSIS report titled, Recalibrating U.S. Strategy toward Russia: A New Time for Choosing, offers the framework for a comprehensive strategy toward Russia, one derived from analysis and insights regarding key elements of past U.S. policy toward Russia; historical Russian reactions to major events on its periphery; and the tool sets each side can bring to bear in advancing its national interests." ​

China's rapid development of new destroyers, amphibs, stealth fighters and long-range weapons is quickly increasing its ability to threaten the United States and massively expand expeditionary military operations around the globe, according to a Congressional report. – Scout Warrior

Josh Rogin reports: If President Trump goes through with an expected summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping at Mar-a-lago next week, the United States’ allies in Northeast Asia will be watching closely to see if the Trump administration will stand by its friends against increasing pressure from Beijing. How Trump deals with China’s massive retaliation against South Korea in response to U.S. missile defense deployment is one crucial test. – Washington Post
 
Michael Morrell and Admiral James Winnefield, USN (Ret.) write: The first responsibility of a leader is to face reality. Setting aside our previous belief that we can convince North Korea to abandon its nuclear program will unlock the door to a different policy. But there are still no easy answers. Indeed, a new policy requires even more firmness and finesse—carefully calculated though it must be—conducted across the full range of instruments of national and international power to deter use and proliferation and to demonstrate to other nations the high cost of commencing such a program. – The Cipher Brief

The American Interest

In spontaneity and sprawl, the weekend protests across Russia were reminiscent of large anti-Kremlin rallies in 2011-2012 that were followed by a steady tightening of government control over the political landscape. But one thing sets the two apart: the striking preponderance of young protesters in their late teens and early twenties -- a generation that includes many who have only ever known life under Vladimir Putin. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

Julia Ioffe writes: Monday, as Moscow courts rushed to process the hundreds and hundreds of arrests, the Moscow opposition struggled to process what had happened. Like the protests that exploded on their streets five years ago, these were an unexpected breach in the façade of indifference and acceptance that the Kremlin had worked so hard to erect. Behind it, though, something had clearly changed. – Atlantic Council

Strategies Underlying Iranian Soft Power
From Michael Rubin, AEI: “Iran’s approach to soft power is sophisticated and varied. While the Islamic Republic’s religious rhetoric might dominate the Western understanding of Iran, successive governments—both before and after the 1979 Islamic Revolution—have sought to capitalize on Iran’s culture, religion, and historical legacy to extend influence and achieve aims far beyond its borders. To understand Iranian soft power therefore requires recognition of Persia’s imperial past, its religious evolution, Persian language and culture, and its history.” ​

CHINA: China Expands Militarization of the South China Sea
From Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative: “China’s three air bases in the Spratlys and another on Woody Island in the Paracels will allow Chinese military aircraft to operate over nearly the entire South China Sea. The same is true of China’s radar coverage, made possible by advanced surveillance/early-warning radar facilities at Fiery Cross, Subi, and Cuarteron Reefs, as well as Woody Island, and smaller facilities elsewhere. China has maintained HQ-9 surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems on Woody Island for more than a year and has on at least one occasion deployed anti-ship cruise missiles to the island. It has now constructed hardened shelters with retractable roofs for mobile missile launchers on the Big 3.”

Asian Times

North Korea: Stronger Kim, but Weaker Kims? 
From Rod Lyon, The Strategist (ASPI): “Finding a solution to North Korea’s accelerating nuclear and missile programs grows more urgent by the day. Our previous strategies—delay and denial—will no longer avail us. But the three standard options—diplomacy, sanctions or use of force—all have downsides. Diplomacy’s proven ineffective; sanctions are difficult, slow and uneven; and the use of force might well beget a wider war. Is there a sleeper option—regime change? In the wake of Iraq and Libya, regime change has a bad name. But the question’s worth revisiting, precisely because of the recent killing of Kim Jong-nam.” ​

Rep. Ted Yoho writes: Underscoring the critical interests at stake, the hearing made evident that the United States has several unilateral tools available which could finally begin to impose costs on China’s destabilizing actions in the South and East China Seas. We should start using these tools. – National Interest

Disappointing Rookie Tillerson in Asia. @gordongchang

"...● “Mutual respect” and “win-win solutions.” In Beijing, Tillerson parroted the Chinese when he said that U.S.-China relations should be built on “nonconfrontation, no conflict, mutual respect and always searching for win-win solutions.” As a general rule, it is not a good idea for senior U.S. officials to repeat such Chinese formulations nearly word for word, since they will be interpreted in China based on the official narrative of the Communist Party. But this was a minor mistake compared with the Obama administration’s 2013 embrace of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s proposal for a “new model of great power relations” between Beijing and Washington. That six-character Chinese phrase cast the United States and China as the two powers that should decide the future of Asia, implicitly downgrading U.S. allies and partners such as Japan and India to second-tier status. In contrast, Tillerson’s use of mundane Chinese Foreign Ministry rhetoric described a bilateral process and did not place China in a privileged position over democratic U.S. allies. Still, in the future, the secretary will want to find his own words to characterize relations with China, which — as he pointed out in other parts of his public remarks — are highly competitive but do hold the potential for greater cooperation.

●“All options are on the table ” with North Korea. Tillerson also took a bit of heat for this statement at his Seoul news conference Friday. But this is exactly the warning that a Hillary Clinton or Jeb Bush administration would probably be sending right now. Over the past year, Pyongyang has raced toward its goal of fielding an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of striking the continental United States with a nuclear warhead. It has deployed hundreds of missiles capable of reaching Japan, South Korea and U.S. bases on Guam and showed a willingness to employ biological or chemical weapons when it allegedly ordered the assassination of Kim Jong Un’s half brother in Malaysia using VX nerve agent. The United States is unlikely to choose a preemptive military strike, but it is critical at this moment to reiterate long-standing U.S. policy toward North Korea: that all options, including military and even nuclear options, will be considered, as necessary, to deter attacks on our homeland or allies....
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/a-report-card-on-tillersons-trip-to-asia/2017/03/21/a8487e50-0d9f-11e7-9d5a-a83e627dc120_story.html?utm_term=.b643bcaa4098

Funeral for Magnitsky:  Murdered by Putin

The Ultimate Guide to THaaD:  U.S. Nuclear Missile Defense System

The Ultimate Guide to North Korean Nuclear Program

How Trump Wins in North Korea

Abraham Denmark writes: First, deploying THAAD to the Korean peninsula should be seen as a purely defensive response to the growing threat of North Korean ballistic missiles. Second, the United States should be clear that the problem is not THAAD — the fundamental problem is North Korea, its continued belligerence, and its ongoing pursuit of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. Washington and Seoul would not need THAAD if the threat of Pyongyang’s ballistic missiles were not so great. Third, the United States should be unequivocal in its commitment to work with its allies to ensure that its military posture is sufficient to defend them. This means that if North Korea continues on its course, THAAD may just be the beginning. – Foreign Policy’s Shadow Government

The Challenges Faces South Korea

Project Syndicate:  Richard Haas, North Korea Out of Time

• North Korea doubles size of uranium-enrichment facility
• Trump administration weighing broad sanctions on N. Korea

Joseph Bosco writes: President Trump, who prides himself on being the ultimate deal-maker, can start collecting on the debt the PRC incurred to Nixon and his successors whose policies helped build China into the economic and military powerhouse it is today — and into the “Frankenstein” monster Nixon had feared he’d helped create. – Taiwan Sentinel

• Ely Ratner: Tilleson bumbles around east Asia

North Korea has likely mastered the technology to power the different stages of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) and may show it off soon, analysts say, but it is likely still a long way from being able to hit the mainland United States. - Reuters

Ely Ratner writes: The Trump administration will get a do-over on China policy when Xi eventually visits. But this shouldn’t be rushed. Senior posts first need to be filled at State and Defense. Public statements have to be consistent and coordinated. A China strategy should be developed, embedded in a comprehensive approach to the region. The media has to be more effectively managed to shape and sell the message. And the administration needs to spell out its overall approach to Asia to build confidence that it knows what it is doing. As of today, Trump isn’t ready for Xi, and Tillerson’s rhetorical blunder should serve as a wake-up call that there’s still work to do on several fronts. - Politico

Searching for Trump's foreign policy. @joshrogin, WashingtonPost.com


“By failing to understand that the space between war and peace is not an empty one — but a landscape churning with political, economic, and security competitions that require constant attention — American foreign policy risks being reduced to a reactive and tactical emphasis on the military instrument by default,” Schadlow wrote in a 2014 op-ed for the website War on the Rocks.


The White House declined to comment on how that view of American power squares with the view of those inside the White House who support Trump’s “America First” foreign policy approach.


Schadlow, McMaster and other top officials who believe in soft power, including Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, may be able to influence the policy direction internally and bring the Trump administration to a posture more closely resembling the foreign policy the United States has pursued since World War II. Alternatively, they might become marginalized by top White House aides, and the national security strategy that Schadlow is tasked with developing could become a purely academic exercise.


If Trump’s pattern of “escalate to de-escalate” does emerge as his overarching doctrine, the results are ominously predictable. As Schadlow’s book lays out, history shows that when the United States is not actively and continuously involved in maintaining order and stability abroad, the world becomes a more dangerous, chaotic and dark place.
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/trumps-foreign-policy-doctrine-escalate-to-de-escalate/2017/03/19/8cb897e0-0b35-11e7-a15f-a58d4a988474_story.html?utm_term=.dc6f52c1b7f2