The United States and its Western allies have taken a number of steps in recent weeks to push back on Russian aggression, with the latest being the expulsion of dozens of Russian diplomats from the United States, NATO and many European countries.
But these actions will not be enough to deter Russia’s President Vladimir Putin from continuing his campaign of hybrid warfare against the West, writes Cipher Brief expert Robert M. Dannenberg, former chief of the CIA’s Central Eurasia Division:
But these actions will not be enough to deter Russia’s President Vladimir Putin from continuing his campaign of hybrid warfare against the West, writes Cipher Brief expert Robert M. Dannenberg, former chief of the CIA’s Central Eurasia Division:
- Recent Western expulsions, indictments and sanctions “pale against the scope and seriousness of Russia’s wider campaign – a pattern of activity suggestive of a broad effort by Putin to confront the U.S. and expand Russia’s sphere of influence at the expense of the U.S. and its allies.”
- “U.S. deterrence strategy should be directed at those two primary motivating factors for Putin and the hardliners that profit from his system of government: preservation of the regime; and Russia’s perceived re-emergence as a global power.”
- “Putin despises Western values, is envious of the economic power that our market economies generate, and knows he cannot match the pervasive and powerful influence of the ideas the West transmits to the world through social media… His only tool to compete by undermining the West via a hybrid cyber and military threat. We must realize there can be no compromise or meaningful negotiation with one such as Putin.”
- “We should expect a concentrated Russian cyber effort this November. Putin’s ideal scenario would be to create electoral chaos in the U.S., as evidence of Russian cyber interference causes a number of election results to be contested—a process that could last months and cause political chaos in the country.”
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