EMERGING THREATS U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY - CounterStrikeMedia

RUSSIAN AGENTS, NERVE GAS & POLITICAL ASSASSINATION

3/27/2018

The recent poisoning of Sergei Skripal, an ex-Russian spy living in Salisbury, England, and his daughter and the consequences of this action – the deterioration of relations between Russia and the UK and other Western nations – remind us about the general geopolitical tension between East and West. The UK government’s allegations that Russia was responsible for the poisoning, and the subsequent expulsions of Russian diplomats from the UK, the US and dozens of other...

The United States and its Western allies have taken a number of steps in recent weeks to push back on Russian aggression, with the latest being the expulsion of dozens of Russian diplomats from the United States, NATO and many European countries.

But these actions will not be enough to deter Russia’s President Vladimir Putin from continuing his campaign of hybrid warfare against the West, writes Cipher Brief expert Robert M. Dannenberg, former chief of the CIA’s Central Eurasia Division:

Recent Western expulsions, indictments and sanctions “pale against the scope and seriousness of Russia’s wider campaign – a pattern of activity suggestive of a broad effort by Putin to confront the U.S. and expand Russia’s sphere of influence at the expense of the U.S. and its allies.”
“U.S. deterrence strategy should be directed at those two primary motivating factors for Putin and the hardliners that profit from his system of government: preservation of the regime; and Russia’s perceived re-emergence as a global power.”
“Putin despises Western values, is envious of the economic power that our market economies generate, and knows he cannot match the pervasive and powerful influence of the ideas the West transmits to the world through social media… His only tool to compete by undermining the West via a hybrid cyber and military threat. We must realize there can be no compromise or meaningful negotiation with one such as Putin.”
“We should expect a concentrated Russian cyber effort this November. Putin’s ideal scenario would be to create electoral chaos in the U.S., as evidence of Russian cyber interference causes a number of election results to be contested—a process that could last months and cause political chaos in the country.”

Read Dannenberg’s in-depth analysis of Russian hybrid warfare, Putin’s goals and how the West can effectively fight back.

SOMALIA GET HIT AGAIN & NIGERIA STEPS UP AGAINST BOKO HARAM WITH TALKS, THE STORY

3/27/2018

Three explosions over four days in or near the Somalian capital have left a trail of carnage, killing nearly 20 people and injuring dozens of others, as Islamist militants unleashed a wave of attacks on the country. - New York Times

Nigeria said it is holding peace talks with a local Islamic State faction, in a test of whether a secular government can reach an accord with an offshoot of one the world’s most infamous international jihadist networks. - Wall Street Journal

Nigeria’s government is in talks with Islamist militant group Boko Haram about a possible ceasefire with the ultimate aim of securing a permanent cessation of hostilities, the country’s information minister said on Sunday. - Reuters

A mass grave has been found in central Mali, amid a deteriorating security situation marked by bombings and abductions by armed groups, and unlawful killings by the military, according to Amnesty International. - The Guardian

Joshua Meservey & Jack Armstrong write: The Kenyan Defense Forces have been deployed in Somalia conducting counterterror operations since 2011. Yet a recent United Nations (U.N.) report accuses the Kenyans of continuing its years-long practice of enabling the trade of charcoal in Somalia—a trade banned by the U.N. in 2012 because it profits al-Shabaab, the Islamist terror group with which Kenya is ironically locked in a bitter struggle. - Heritage Foundation

JAPAN STEPS UP AGAINST CHINA & HOW TRUMP WINS AGAINST NORTH KOREA

3/27/2018

HOW TRUMP DELIVERS A WIN

In major shake-up, Japan’s Ground Self-Defense Force gets centralized command amid regional tensions
(Japan Times) The Ground Self-Defense Force underwent its biggest organizational shake-up Tuesday, with command streamlined for flexible nationwide operations and the creation of amphibious forces tasked with defending remote islands.

THE ISLAMIC STATE IS RE-GROUPING

3/27/2018

Islamic State Regrouping in Iraqi, Kurdish Disputed Territories
(Voice of America) Taking advantage of the rivalry between the central government and the Kurdistan Regional Government, Islamic State is regrouping and increasing deadly attacks in disputed territories across northern Iraq, Kurdish and Iraqi officials warned.

WHAT XI DELIVERS FOR CHINA & A NEW CHINESE PERSPECTIVE ON DETERRENCE

3/27/2018

Oriana Skylar Mastro writes: But how would the People’s Republic of China (PRC) end wars? The real possibility of a conflict involving China justifies an examination of Chinese strategic thinking beyond deterrence, crisis behavior and conflict initiation to include how Beijing thinks about conflict termination. - American Enterprise

Carl Gershman writes: This hunger for religion shouldn’t be surprising, given the death many decades ago of communist ideology and its replacement by an asphyxiating combination of cynical power worship, rampant materialism, massive corruption, environmental degradation and harsh repression that now passes for the “Chinese dream” in Xi Jinping’s dictatorial dystopia. - Washington Post

TURKEY STAYS ROGUE

3/27/2018

Matthew Karnitschnig writes: From Erdogan’s dismantling of Turkey’s democratic institutions in the wake of the 2016 attempt to overthrow him to Turkey’s recent assault on Kurdish forces in Syria, EU leaders worry that Ankara has become more of a long-term problem than a partner. And yet both sides remain bound by a reality as acute as Juncker’s abdominal pain: Mutual dependence. - Politico

'Zero credibility’ to reports U.S. is leaving bases in Turkey and Qatar, DoD says
(Military Times) Pentagon officials are denying reports that the U.S. military is planning to “liquidate” Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar and Incirlik Air Base in Turkey, two of U.S Central Command’s main air combat bases in the Middle East.

Turkey hosts Iran and Russia for Syria talks
The leaders of Turkey, Russia and Iran are set to hold a three-way summit in Ankara on Wednesday to continue negotiations over settling the seven-year conflict in Syria. During the trip, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin are expected to attend the groundbreaking for a $20 billion Russian-made nuclear plant on the Mediterranean coast at Akkuyu and hold a high-level Cooperation Council meeting in Ankara. Read More
timesofisrael.com

Erdogan doubles down on foreign operations against Kurdish fighters
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said this week that Turkey is capable of carrying out operations against groups it deems terrorists without any approval from foreign countries, including Iraq. “These days Turkey is finding terrorist organizations outside its borders and is entering their dens,” Erdogan said in Istanbul on Monday. “We have told Baghdad that either they should deal with it or we will do it. We are not thinking about waiting for any approval from anyone.”
The comments come as Turkish forces in northern Iraq have begun to build permanent military bases to Kurdish incursions inside Turkey, Al-Hurra reported Monday. Turkish forces advanced about 6 miles inside Iraqi territory last month in order to attack elements of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in Sinjar, but the operation was canceled after Baghdad promised to stop PKK activities in Iraq. Read More dailysabah.com

TURKEY THREATENS WAR WITH U.S. IN SYRIA

Turkey, Russia accelerate S-400 sale
(IHS Jane’s 360) Following a meeting between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin on 3 April, the two leaders announced that they had agreed to an expedited delivery of the missiles from Russia. Turkey’s Undersecretary for Defense Industries, Ismail Demir, later confirmed on his Twitter account that the delivery schedule had moved to July 2019, compared with previous delivery estimates of 2020.

Russia sees benefit of nudging Turkey on to Manbij in Syria
Despite their divergent strategic goals, the leaders of Iran, Russia and Turkey have agreed to work together in Syria while further excluding the United States from the decision-making process.

SYRIA & CRIMES AGAINST HUMANITY

3/27/2018

The greatest fear is that religious sectarianism between Sunni and Shiite Muslims — the kind of acrimony that has ravaged Iraq — could take hold in Yemen, where such divisions are largely unfamiliar, and that the sectarian nature of the conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran could rub off. - Washington Post

The largest convoy yet of evacuated Syrian rebel fighters and civilians began leaving a devastated pocket of Eastern Ghouta overnight, state media said on Tuesday. - Agence France-Presse

Russia’s military said Monday it expects to reach an agreement with a major Syrian rebel group to arrange its exit from the last rebel-held town in eastern Ghouta in another key victory for President Bashar Assad’s forces as they push to gain control of the region on the edge of Damascus. - Associated Press

War crimes investigators and activists have amassed an “overwhelming volume” of testimony, images and videos documenting atrocities committed by all sides during Syria’s war, a U.N. quasi-prosecutorial body said in its first report. - Reuters

U.S. NAVY HITS BALTIC & BLACK SEAS

3/27/2018

Send Navy Ships to the Baltic and Black Seas
By Jerry Hendrix, National Review: “Basing American vessels there would reassure our allies and restrain Putin.”

A Tale of Two Interventions: Russia and the U.S. Face Off in Syria
By Erik Grossman, Small Wars Journal: “After the fall of the Soviet Union, the United States and its Western allies were able to intervene in regional conflicts around the globe uncontested by major powers, a development which has long distressed the Russian government. With a renewed Russian power able to project a significant force beyond its own borders, this era is in freefall.”

WHAT PUTIN'S ELECTION MEANS FOR U.S. RUSSIAN RELATIONS & WHY TURKEY'S KURDISH OFFENSIVE IN SYRIA MUST BE STOPPED

3/25/2018

Putin’s ominous ‘reelection’

Austin Long writes: Why would Russia, which has over 1,500 deployed strategic nuclear warheads that can already be delivered from existing ballistic and cruise missiles, invest in these new, exotic — and, according to some, crazy — systems? The answer is deeply rooted in two of the defining events of modern Russian and Soviet history: the Great Patriotic War (or World War II) and the Cold War. - War on the Rocks

Stumbling Into a War With Russia
By Dave Majumdar, The National Interest: “Given the poisonous relationship between Washington and Moscow, chances that the two great powers might face off in a military confrontation are growing.”

Turkey will drive the Kurdish YPG militia away from the Syrian border if it does not reach agreement with the United States on a plan to remove the group from Syria’s Manbij region, Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on Thursday. - Reuters

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Wednesday Turkey’s military offensive in Syria’s northern town of Afrin was unacceptable and she criticized Russia for “just watching” the continuing attacks by Syrian forces on eastern Ghouta. - Reuters

Syrian rebels and their families are expected to leave a besieged town in the eastern Ghouta suburbs of Damascus, in an evacuation deal that will see the town handed over to the government following years of bombardment. - Associated Press

Red Glare: The Origin and Implications of Russia’s ‘New’ Nuclear Weapons
(War On The Rocks) “Crazy.” “Dr. Strangelove weapons.” These were just two of the more colorful reactions to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s revelation of new exotic nuclear delivery systems in a March 1 speech.

BOLTON RETURNS AS NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR

3/23/2018

NIXERS BEAT FIXERS: WHAT BOLTON'S APPOINTMENT MEANS

What John Bolton's Appointment as National Security Adviser Means // Uri Friedman
Until today, Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster was considered Trump's most militant adviser on North Korea.

Washington learned last night – via presidential tweet – that Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster will be replaced as national security advisor by John Bolton, a former State Department official and UN Ambassador under President George W. Bush.

We asked our brain trust to weigh in on the news—and what it means for Iran, North Korea, and national security in general:

John McLaughlin, former Acting Director of CIA: “Trump will now be surrounded by people with very similar views on key issues such as Bolton and CIA Director Mike Pompeo, who he’s nominated to replace Rex Tillerson as Secretary of State. This can be a problem and can close off options unless Bolton rises to the occasion as a national security advisor — whose principal job is always to tease out a range of views and present them fairly to the president and lay out the pros and cons of each option.”
Mary Beth Long, former Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs and former CIA officer: “John Bolton is certainly neither an outsider to Washington or to foreign policy, and is well known for his conservative views, having honed his skills at State Department. John has experience in international organizations and arms control, and his last post, as U.S Ambassador to the United Nations in New York, provided him first-hand experience negotiating with the Russians and Chinese. He generally is considered a hawk. On North Korea, he seems particularly realistic about the limitations on our ability to dissuade Kim Jung Un from advancing his nuclear and missile programs.”
Ambassador Joseph DeTrani, former U.S. Special Envoy for Negotiations with North Korea: “I think Trump’s appointment of Mike Pompeo to State and now John Bolton as national security advisor sends a clear message to Iran and certainly to North Korea that senior advisors to the president are not happy with the way things have been going for the past few years. In these two senior positions, you’re going to find two very proactive advisors who believe we can’t be patient with these sorts of developments—we have to be more proactive in addressing and resolving them to the interests of the United States and our allies.”

Norman Roule, former senior CIA Mideast official and National Intelligence Manager for Iran: “John Bolton arrives with the reputation as a hawk who reportedly (and repeatedly) clashed with subordinates and intelligence officials whose views differed from this own…. We need to remember that whatever lays in store for Iran, Tehran brought this on itself. The Iran nuclear deal gave Tehran the opportunity to become a responsible country. It responded with an expansion of its domestic missile program, detentions of westerners, an unprecedented proliferation of advanced missile technology and Revolutionary Guard operations.”

Read more views on Bolton’s appointment by Cipher Brief experts.

AL-QAEDA SURGING IN THE AFRICAN HORN

3/20/2018

Al-Qaeda 3.0: Turning to Face the Near Enemy
By Isaac Kfir, The Strategist (ASPI): “Clearly, the demise of the caliphate has been a huge boost to the counterterrorism world, but Hoffman’s briefs are a timely reminder that we ignore al-Qaeda at our peril.”

"Policy Roundtable: What Is the Future of the Jihadist Movement?" Daveed Gartenstein-Ross et al, Texas National Security Review

SYRIA & THE WMD TRAIL

3/20/2018

"The Syrian Great Game," Reuel Marc Gerecht, Hoover Institute

The Syrian Rebellion And Its International Resonance
by Russell A. Berman via The Caravan
With all the optimism of the Arab Spring, the Syrian rebellion began with the belief that the people of Syria deserve better than the cruelty meted out by Assad family rule. That aspiration alone ought to be sufficient grounds to stand with the democratic forces pursuing self-determination. Yet the United States has been hesitating, a legacy of the Obama administration’s preference for tyranny in Tehran over freedom in Damascus.

The Descent Of Syria Into The Abyss
by Samuel Tadros via The Caravan
“Greetings, softer than the breeze of Barada …. I send my tears, which will never dry, O Damascus.” The opening line of Ahmed Shawqi’s famous poem was written as news of the Syrian defeat by the French in 1920 reached Egypt. Less than two years earlier, Faisal I had entered Damascus and raised the flag of Arab nationalism. The jubilation was felt across the Levant.

Samuel Tadros writes: While the U.S. cannot completely end the Syrian civil war, curtailing the level of destruction and bloodshed remains an objective, not merely on humanitarian grounds, but also on strategic grounds, as the prolonged violence will continue to attract foreign intervention and have a spillover effect on neighboring countries destabilizing them further. - Hudson Institute

The Caravan: Strategy In Syria: Beyond ISIS
via Hoover Daily Report
Issue 1817 of The Caravan is now available online. The journal is a periodic symposium on the contemporary dilemmas of the Greater Middle East.

Syria: Dante's Earthly Circle Of Hell
by Charles Hill via The Caravan
On Time magazine’s cover in 1947 was Arnold Toynbee, the then world’s most renowned scholar, author of the monumental ten-volume, A Study of History, praised for “Taking all the knowable human past as his province, he has found rhythms and patterns which any less panoramic view could scarcely have detected.”

US Military In Syria Must Rely On Political Determination And A Marshall Plan
by Fabrice Balanche via The Caravan
In January 2018, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson described American strategy in Syria as including maintaining a troop presence in the region until at least 2021 while building a Kurdish-Arab force of 30,000 men, both with the ultimate objective of blocking Iranian influence. As laudable as that goal is, achieving it will require addressing a complex nexus of interrelated issues.

Six Components Of A Syria Strategy
by Karim Sadjadpour, Emile Hokayem via The Caravan
US policy toward Syria has been debilitated by an irresolvable conundrum. Empirical research suggests most civil wars are concluded by military victories, not political settlements. Yet in the war between the murderous regime of Bashar Assad—backed by Russia and Iran—and fractured Islamist rebels, the United States does not want either side to prevail.

America And Syria: Life After Hegemony
by Camille Pecastaing via The Caravan
The 24-hour news cycle has offered a sequential, fragmented vision of the Syrian conflict. A chemical attack here, a temporary cease fire there; a wave of hopeless refugees, a gruesome terrorist attack; the fall of a besieged city, yet another round of negotiations. Caught in the fractional details, few looked at the bigger picture of how the position of influence the US had secured in the Middle East from the mid-1970s unraveled.

ASSAD TOURS HIS WRECKAGE

3/20/2018

WINEP’s Patrick Clawson: Assad, Iran, Russia, and Trump’s cabinet changes
Driving with Assad: Syria’s president tours a destroyed suburb

In bypassing the news media, Mr. Assad delivered an alternative view of the war, one in which he is assured and in charge, casually cruising past bombed-out buildings, often driving with just two fingers, an elbow propped casually out the window. It is a world in which his opponents are all terrorists and his troops all heroes. - New York Times

Turkey’s capture of Afrin raises stakes in dispute with US
(Washington Examiner) Over the weekend, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said his forces captured the northern Syrian city of Afrin, as the expected tough, urban fighting failed to materialize and Kurdish fighters seemed to melt away. U.S. officials have repeatedly warned that Turkey’s actions are pulling much-needed resources from the U.S.-backed fight against the Islamic State.

LEON ARON: TO HAVE & TO HOLD, PUTIN'S QUEST FOR A RUSSIAN EMPIRE

3/19/2018

Aron’s new monograph, “To Have and to Hold: Putin’s Quest for Control in the Former Soviet Empire,” takes a revolutionary approach to analyzing Russia’s threat to its neighbors. By integrating analyses of the motivations and operational capabilities of Putin’s Russia with assessments of the vulnerabilities of potential target countries, “To Have and to Hold” has cemented its place as required reading for anyone interested in Russia and European security. Access the volume here.

Putin’s election victory magnifies divide in Russia’s political landscape
AEI’s Leon Aron: Putin’s ominous ‘re-election’

LATIN AMERICA: HOME FOR FOREIGN ISLAMISTS

3/19/2018

Read the full piece.

THE RED MEN CONFLICT CONTINUES

3/19/2018

Egypt, Sudan meet amid Nile dam tensions
Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir is expected to arrive in Egypt today for an official visit with President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. Relations between Egypt and Sudan have recently worsened over the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and a border dispute. Cairo fears that Ethiopia’s dam will reduce its share of water from the Nile while Khartoum has sided with Addis Ababa. Read More

SYRIAN FAULT LINE: TURKEY, IRAN & RUSSIA COMPETE

3/19/2018

Turkish forces enter Afrin
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced Sunday that Turkey and its Free Syrian Army (FSA) allies have entered Afrin in northwestern Syria. Ankara began its siege on the city several weeks ago to dislodge US-backed Kurdish forces that it considers to be terrorists. A spokesman for the FSA said the fighters met no resistance when they entered Afrin before dawn on Sunday. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said pockets of Kurdish militants were defying orders to withdraw and clashes continue in some parts of the city. Turkish and FSA forces reportedly control about half the town. Read More
hurriyetdailynews.com

Assad visits Eastern Ghouta as regime forces advance
Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad visited the Damascus suburb of Eastern Ghouta on Sunday for the first time in years as regime forces continue to advance after splitting the rebel-held enclave in three. According to state media, Assad congratulated troops and met thousands of displaced civilians. The visit comes as the regime has recaptured 80% of Eastern Ghouta, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Opposition sources said that hundreds of fighters have turned themselves in over the past couple of days. The Assad regime has given the rebels an ultimatum to either leave Eastern Ghouta for opposition-held areas away from the capital or join local pro-government militias. More than 3,500 people have left the besieged enclave, according to the Russian Defense Ministry. Read More

NATIONALISM, DOMESTIC POLITICS & CHINESE POWER

3/19/2018

Nationalism, domestic politics, and China’s global leadership role
Oriana Skylar Mastro | University of Pennsylvania
With the election of Donald Trump, whose "America first" policies often have an isolationist tone, the issue of Chinese global leadership has been pushed center stage. How China plans to approach leadership — where it competes, undermines, follows, or leaves unchallenged the US leadership position — has serious implications for the future of US global leadership.

The Double Helix of Chinese History
Denise Y. Ho considers what the removal of presidential term limits will mean for the country's reform process.

There is little doubt that China has decided that now is the time to challenge the United States. The question is, what should the US response look like? In a new piece for the CATO Unbound series, Oriana Skylar Mastro lays out the framework for countering the threat from China. The US strategic objective needs to be twofold. First, the US must adopt a strategy that prevents China from using any form of coercion — economic, political, and military — to achieve its aim. Second, the US must ensure that the security and economic benefits it provides to other states are greater than the pure economic benefits that China offers. Continue here.

The annual meeting of China’s legislature, the National People’s Congress, is usually a sleepy, stolid affair. But this year history happened. In the 16-day session that ended on Tuesday, the Communist Party-controlled congress approved changes that could shape China for decades, especially by stretching President Xi Jinping’s hold on power far into the future. - New York Times

China’s parliament voted Tuesday to establish a new anti-corruption agency with expanded powers to detain people for months at secret locations without access to lawyers, a move that experts said extends President Xi Jinping’s control and significantly undermines the rule of law and civil rights. - Washington Post

HOW PUTIN HURTS THE U.S. AT THE U.N.

3/19/2018

Let’s get real: It’s time to move on from the Putin-dominated UN
Frederick W. Kagan | Fox News
Putin’s determination to oppose the US and its allies at the UN on almost every issue means that virtually no meaningful resolution can pass. When a resolution does pass —as with the Security Council–mandated ceasefire in Syria — Putin simply ignores it if he chooses. The West must accept that it will now have to act directly in its own interests without the UN’s cover or support.

RUSSIA'S STRATEGIC OUTLOOK: ASIA TIMES

MEET THE AUTOCRATS: HOW A NEW CIA TACKLES AUTOCRACY IN ASIA

3/17/2018

MCMASTER WANTS TO SPANK PUTIN

3/16/2018

McMaster calls for U.S. punishment of Russia over Syria ‘atrocities’
Text of McMaster remarks on Russia and Syria
‘We were dying in there’: Thousands of Syrians flee rebel enclave
Saudi crown prince likens Iran’s supreme leader to Hitler

Weekly Standard editorial: Theresa May takes on Putin

CHEMICAL WEAPONS LINK: NORTH KOREA & IRAN

Russia: The Counter-Intelligence State
By Stephen Blank, the interpreter: “Vladimir Putin’s family comes from the “organs”, as he himself has implied. His grandfather was Lenin’s and Stalin’s cook for several years in the 1920s, and he has been imbued with their ethic for all of his life.”

Military Psychology—New Pivot of Russian Military Strategy
By Sergey Sukhankin, Eurasia Daily Monitor: “The current wave of interest in military psychology is primarily related to Russia’s strong desire to catch up with the United States, which has achieved impressive results in this domain.

WHAT MCMASTER LEAVES BEHINED

IS CONFRONTATION WITH CHINA INEVITABLE

3/16/2018

China and the West: Is conflict ahead?
Oriana Skylar Mastro | CATO Unbound
There is still confusion about what types of behaviors are threatening and how to define US strategic objectives toward China. As a result, we are a long way from devising a feasible and effective strategy to preserve US interests at an acceptable cost. In the meantime, China continues to advance along its path to achieving “national rejuvenation” and great power status, potentially at the expense of US power, influence, and interests.

Xi could rule China for decades, says US Pacific commander
(The Associated Press) China’s removal of presidential term limits could see leader Xi Jinping stay in power for decades, the commander of U.S. forces in the Pacific said Thursday. Adm. Harry Harris said he viewed the move as a harbinger of the authoritarian nation’s direction and the strategic threat it poses to America.

FIXING STATE IS A MUST FOR TEAM TRUMP

3/15/2018

Let Our Stale Foreign Policy Dogma Leave With Tillerson
by Bruce Thornton via Front Page Magazine Online
A golden opportunity awaits to bring real change to the State Department.

"From Iran to North Korea, opportunities await Trump’s new secretary of State," Behnam Ben Taleblu, The Hill

WHY TRUMP FIRED TILLERSON: Continue here.

TRUMP MOVES TOWARD WAR & WHY US HAS A 25 YEAR RECORD OF FAILURE WITH NORTH KOREA

3/14/2018

"When Pompeo replaces Tillerson at the State Department he faces challenges from North Korea, Syria and Iran," Reuel Marc Gerecht, Fox News

Beijing testing the fault lines of US support for allies across Asia
BY ROBERT E. MCCOY
With signs of a possible confrontation of some sort this year, is the US prepared for a bloody clash with North Korea – or even a naval conflict with China?

Trump picks Iran hard-liner to replace Secretary of State Tillerson
President Donald Trump fired Secretary of State Rex Tillerson on Tuesday and nominated CIA Director Mike Pompeo, a hard-line Iran hawk, to replace him. Trump explicitly noted that he and Tillerson did not agree on the Iran nuclear deal, with the outgoing secretary advocating for the United States to remain in the accord. Trump has threatened to exit the deal unless Congress and European signatories to the accord agree to address what the president views as its shortcomings.
However, Pompeo’s previous advocacy for exiting the deal and his support for military force against Tehran when he was a member of Congress could complicate his Senate confirmation. Pro-deal advocacy groups are already gearing up to lobby against his confirmation even as Democratic senators warn that he will face an uphill battle. Read More

With the prospect of a Trump-Kim summit in the near future, it’s worth looking back at the history of U.S. negotiations with North Korea over the past quarter century.

Mike Chinoy, a former CNN Senior Asia Correspondent who’s traveled to the Hermit Kingdom 17 times, offers some key insights:

“The conventional wisdom says that whenever any agreement has been reached, North Korea has cheated. But the reality is more complex. Not all negotiations have failed — and the collapse of agreements during that time has been as much the responsibility of Washington as of Pyongyang.”
“Internal divisions and mixed signals on the U.S. side have repeatedly crippled otherwise promising diplomatic opportunities, contributing to misunderstanding and miscalculations in Pyongyang about American intentions and behavior.”
“This may help explain why North Korea has so far issued no formal public statement on the reported offer of talks Kim Jong Un made to visiting South Korean officials last week. Kim Jong Un is likely very much aware of this history, and may well be waiting and watching to see whether the Trump administration— chaotic, lacking Korea expertise, and internally divided – is in fact ready to move forward…[before confirming he is] prepared to do so as well.”

Read Chinoy’s synopsis of why negotiations have fallen apart over the past 25 years.

WHY REX IS GONE

3/14/2018

Rex, we hardly knew ye. And that was enough.
Danielle Pletka | AEIdeas
To say he disappointed is an understatement. It was not that Tillerson was too Trumpy. It was that he was not what he was promised to be: a manager. His stewardship of the State Department has been a fiasco from soup to nuts. Insular and ignorant, Tillerson refused to fill positions, refused to manage foreign policy, and refused to do his job.

How Mike Pompeo can revitalize the transatlantic partnership, in three easy steps
Dalibor Rohac | AEIdeas

The Trump Doctrine’s search for a Trump Team goes on
BY DAVID P. GOLDMAN
Rex Tillerson may have been an 'outsider' but he turned out to be a conventional thinker. Trump will continue to hire and fire until he finds people willing to act on his mandate