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GREGORY COPLEY EDITOR/PUBLISHER DEFENSE AND FOREIGN AFFAIRS ON IRAN: TURKEY & RUSSIA, STILL FRENEMIES

3/29/2020

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Stealth is something that Iran just doesn’t do. In fact, capable and domestically-produced military planes are also something they don’t do. Is the Shafaq a truly new creation? That’s extremely unlikely. Is it stealthy? Also unlikely. Chances are the Shafaq charade is a rebadged Russian Yak-130. Still, if it could ever enter serial production, it could be a decent trainer airframe. – The National Interest  ​
Pavel Luzin writes: Where Russia is really trying to improve its military space capabilities is in the following: opportunities for jamming and radio intelligence; sustainability of its command, control and communication systems; and the offensive capabilities against ground-based space infrastructure. The goal here is to prevent its adversaries from using of their space-related infrastructure. – Defense News
David Albright and Sarah Burkhard write: Apparently, the IAEA and Western governments did not know about this facility prior to the seizure of the Nuclear Archive. The site’s secrecy and documented involvement of Groups 5 and 7 of the Amad Plan suggest that Iran was not intending to declare this site to the IAEA, unless discovered, such as was the case with the Natanz enrichment plant and the Gchine uranium mine. – Institute for Science and International Security
Institute for the Study of War’s Katherine Lawlor and Brandon Wallace: Iran's proxies accelerate Soleimani's campaign to compel U.S. withdrawal from iraq
Katherine Lawlor and Brandon Wallace write:  Iran continues to escalate proxy attacks against the U.S. in Iraq, demonstrating that it remains undeterred despite the January 3 strike that killed IRGC – Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani and key Iraqi proxy leader Abu Mehdi al-Muhandis and subsequent U.S. strikes. Iran’s proxy network in Iraq is advancing its campaign to compel an American withdrawal by increasing the operational tempo of its attacks on U.S. and allied personnel. – Institute for the Study of War
​Turkey pursues Libya campaign despite growing financial woes
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is pressing ahead with his military venture in Libya even as the coronavirus pandemic is putting further strain on Ankara’s cash-strapped coffers.
Erdoğan Battles on Multiple Fronts in Risky Regional Power Bid
By Dr. James M. Dorsey, March 30, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is at odds with just about everybody. He is on opposite sides with Russia in Syria as well as Libya and is trying the patience of his US and European allies. Turkey and Russia are testing the limits of what was always at best an opportunistic, fragile partnership aimed at capitalizing on a seemingly diminishing US interest in the Middle East, already evident under President Barack Obama and continuing under Donald Trump, who is haphazardly redefining what he sees as America’s national interests.
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Start the Negotiations, End the Afghan War Now by Sultan Barakat and Barnett Rubin
Turkey and Russia: Not Friends After All
By Burak Bekdil, March 26, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: After a three-and-a-half-year marriage of convenience, Turkey and Russia have come to realize that they are fighting on opposite sides of two proxy wars: one in Syria and the other in Libya. This comes after Russia sold Turkey $2.5 billion worth of S-400 air defense systems, won a multibillion-dollar nuclear plant contract, signed up for a lucrative natural gas pipeline, and widened the gap between NATO and its part-time member Turkey.
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Turkey’s leak of Istanbul killing shows unlikely marriage with Iran under strain
The U.S. military said Thursday that air defense systems are “moving” into Iraq following attacks on American and coalition forces in recent weeks. The weapons include Patriot surface-to-air missiles and a variant of the Navy’s SeaRAM and CIWS, or close-in weapon system, which fires 3,000 rounds a minute, a defense official with knowledge of the order told Fox News. – Fox News
Zvi Bar’el writes: No sooner than one estimate is made of the economic damage the coronavirus epidemic is wreaking on the Middle East, a more dire forecast supercedes it. […]At the moment, these countries are split between those that are wealthy and hold huge foreign currency reserves that can help fund impressive economic assistance plans, and those that are poor and are now seeking to figure out how they will finance ongoing essential needs at a time when international financial institutions are concerned about making risky loans. – Haaretz
David Axe writes: On the night of July 15, 2016, elements of the Turkish military rose up against Pres. Recep Tayyip Erdogan — and very nearly succeeded in killing or capturing their controversial leader. A few military units remained steadfastly loyal to the embattled president. Among them — the 1st Main Jet Base in Eskisehir in northwestern Turkey. The base’s F-4E Terminator 2020 fighters flew to Erdogan’s aid during the direst hours of the daylong attempted coup. – The National Interest  ​
Michael Rubin writes: Here’s the point for U.S. policymakers: To target groups like the Badr Corps, Kata’ib Hezbollah, and Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq without first delegitimizing them allows these groups to depict themselves as martyrs and the United States as an enemy of Iraq. This enables recruitment and causes retrenchment. […]Only when this differentiation is achieved, will Iraqis broadly join in and accept the dissolution or destruction of the Iranian-backed Shi’ite militias. – The National Interest ​
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MADURO'S REGIME IS GOING UNDER FAST WHILE BOJO WRESTLES THATCHER

3/29/2020

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RUSSIA RESTRUCTURES
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LIBYAN CIVIL WAR DRIVING BY REGIONAL POWERS

3/24/2020

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Tarek Megerisi writes: At its core, Libya’s war has been driven by the aspirations of regional powers, after its transition was hijacked and run aground by them. It is this dynamic that explains why the situation is deteriorating so rapidly and why the west is turning a blind eye to it. […]It is driving a dangerous race to the bottom, at an important intersection between the African and Arab worlds, and should be a wake-up call to those whose interests lie in stability. – The Guardian ​
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GORDON CHANG TAKES ON THE IMPACT OF WUHAN ON ASIAN POLITICAL ECONOMIES

3/20/2020

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China's Real Disease: Not Coronavirus by Gordon G. Chang 
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RUSSIA CAPTURES US ARTIC SUB EXERCISES; NUCLEAR WAR GAMES IN NEVADA & MILITARY EDUCATION GETS A RE-DO

3/16/2020

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Understanding a Resurgent Russia
Via Decision 2020
The ninth edition of the Decision 2020 Report highlights Hoover fellows’ research and analysis on the Russian Federation’s history, ideology, and global ambitions. It also covers the Russian economy and the dynamics of US-Russian relations.
Russia's Orthodox Grand Strategy
by Jakub Grygiel via The American Interest
Putin will leave sooner or—as it seems—later. But a revanchist Russia, shaped by a revitalized Russian Orthodox Church, will outlast him
Michael Knights writes: In parallel, the U.S. should toughen its mindset, quietly bringing the force protection assets into Iraq that it needs (i.e., Patriot missiles and anti-rocket close-in defenses) without further consultation with an Iraqi government that would rather adopt a “don’t ask, don’t tell” approach.  And finally, the U.S. should let the militias keep over-reaching, keep showing their hand as would-be dictators under Iran’s control, while the U.S.-led coalition keeps helping Iraq to defeat the Islamic State. This is a game we can win. – Politico
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Yesar Al-Maleki writes: Iraq’s politics are complicated, but its economic prospects are attractive. The U.S. should support the development of an economically strong and politically independent Iraq. It is the sole successful model of America’s presence in the region. The administration’s short-to-medium-term strategy in Iraq will determine whether the U.S. is interested in sustaining a stabilizing role that is beneficial to both nations. Alternatively, there is a risk of throwing away years of involvement by reducing Iraq to a pawn in a larger geopolitical game with Iran, one which will likely have no winners. – Middle East Institute
AEI’s Michael Rubin: Erdogan's end game is rife with nepotism and power grab
WINEP’s Michael Knights: How the U.S. can stop the surge of deadly rocket attacks in Iraq
Attacks in Iraq underscore need for indirect fire protection capability
Russia: Aircraft Spotted Near U.S. Submarine Exercise.  NORAD reported on Saturday that it had intercepted two pairs of Tu-142 maritime reconnaissance aircraft near Alaska, the third time Russian aircraft has been spotted in the region this week.  NORAD Commander Gen. Terrence J. O’Shaughnessy stated, ““We continue to see repeated Russian military aviation activity in the Arctic, and we will defend the U.S. and Canada against these threats emanating from our northern approaches."  The reconnaissance aircraft have reportedly been spying on the U.S. ICEX exercise, a three-week exercise used to assess the readiness of U.S. submarines to operate in the Arctic. Military Times Military.com
F-15E Strike Eagle Spotted Flying With an Inert B61-12 Nuclear Bomb
By Tyler Rogoway, The WarZone: "Exercise Red Flag is underway with the U.S. and some of its tightest allies fighting a mock air war over the Nevada Test and Training Range (NTTR) in southern Nevada. Either in conjunction with the exercise or independent of it, there is a lot of testing currently going on over the same area."
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Document Likely Shows SM-6 Hypersonic Speed, Anti-Surface Role
By Steve Trimble, Aviation Week: "A U.S. Navy document that cryptically describes a versatile and powerful new missile likely offers the first confirmation of the hypersonic speed and newly acquired, antisurface-warfare role for the Raytheon SM-6 Block 1B."
Rahim Hamid and Yasser Assadi write: Unfortunately, this is the reality for many Ahwazi children—not even 13 years old, compelled to work late nights in cemeteries and left to suffer from endless nightmares. […]The lack of education and socialization among the young threatens to create a lost generation that will propagate a cycle of poverty that could last for generations. The region, already stressed, does not need the added pressures of poverty, disease and hopelessness to become embedded in another minority. – Washington Institute
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U.S., IRAN:
U.S. Navy and Special Operations Telegraph Message to Tehran
By Carl Prine, Navy Times: "A joint exercise launched March 8 and 9 in the Persian Gulf involving the Cyclone-class Monsoon and the two aircraft was designed to see how well a surface patrol ship and a long-range spy plane could select targets in the Persian Gulf for a Special Operations Command Central gunship to blast to bits."

U.S., RUSIA:
U.S. Fighters Catch Russian Spy Planes Near Alaska for 2nd Time in Days
By Hope Hodge Seck, Military.com: “The world is steadily confronting the prospect of full-fledged Chinese domination in the world’s most important waterway, the South China Sea.”

RUSSIA:
Russia to Lay Down Additional Project 22350 Stealth Frigates
By Franz-Stefan Gady, The Diplomat: "The Severnaya Verf shipyard in St. Petersburg, part of the United Shipbuilding Corporation (USC), will lay down an additional series of Admiral Gorshkov-class Project 22350 guided missile frigates for service in the Russian Navy."
Where is the Naval Expeditionary Combat Command?
By Walker D. Mills, CIMSEC: “. . . with all the calls for integration, where is the Naval Expeditionary Combat Command (NECC)? After all, the Marine Corps itself is a naval expeditionary force according to the Commandant."

The Moonshot Formula: Rediscovering Innovation in the U.S. Air Force
By Jacob Lokshin, Strategy Bridge: "The United States Air Force is in an arms race. Decades of dominance have allowed the force to slip into complacency, while near-peer adversaries have quietly developed capabilities to contest U.S. power across all domains."

As Assessment of the Concept of Competition as a Foundation to Military Planning
By Jeffrey Alston, Divergent Options: "The U.S. Military is overextending its intellectual resources regarding great power competition and is losing its focus on core warfighting concepts."
Mobilization to Demobilization: The Life of the Minuteman
By William Donnelly, War Room: “In recent years there has been much discussion about the Army’s refocusing on largescale combat operations, command at the division echelon, and the transformation of the National Guard from a strategic to an operational reserve."

Why We Need Philosophy in PME
By Christopher Wooding, Grounded Curiosity: " Professional military education (PME) underpins the study of the profession of arms within the defence community. It enables the transfer of knowledge, wisdom, and experience within services. Without PME, modern militaries would be failing as professional organisations given their responsibility to promote the development of ‘warrior-scholars.'"

China's Nuclear Arms Are a Riddle Wrapped in a Mystery
By Michael Mazza & Henry Sokolski, Foreign Policy: "Beijing's plans to build new missiles, expand anti-satellite capabilities and increase nuclear material production far above civilian needs have the world guessing.”
Syria’s brutal conflict enters its 10th year Sunday with President Bashar al-Assad’s regime consolidating its hold over a war-wracked country with a decimated economy where foreign powers flex their muscle. – Agence France-Presse

“There’s nothing now. Nothing at all,” said Yasser Aboud, as he looked away from his family’s few remaining belongings, dumped on the floor of the bare single room that would now be their home in the northwest Syrian city of Idlib.[…] The city of Idlib is the last urban area still under opposition control in Syria, located in a shrinking rebel enclave in the northwestern province of the same name. – Associated Press

Syrian dictator Bashar Assad is allowing a “disastrous” coronavirus outbreak to fester due to his dependence on stricken Iran to win the long-running civil war, according to local reports and international observers. – Washington Examiner
​
Turkish and Russian troops began joint patrols Sunday on a key highway in northwestern Syria, Turkey’s Defense Ministry said, while both the Russian government and Syrian opposition activists said the patrols were shortened because of protests. Patrols on the highway known as the M4, which runs east-west through Idlib province, are part of a cease-fire agreement between Turkey and Russia signed earlier this month. – Associated Press
Michael Rubin writes: Fifteen years ago, diplomats and analysts denied Erdoğan sought anything more than to imbue democracy with some Islamic trappings. Perhaps fifteen years from now, the same analysts will question how they could have been blind to Erdoğan’s ultimate agenda. It is fine to quibble over the five end goals voiced above, but now is the time to discuss openly how Erdoğan visualizes Turkey fifteen years from now. – The National Interest
Why is the Army Preparing for 21st-Century War with a 19th-Century Approach to Learning?
By Franklin Annis, Modern War Institute: “The U.S. Army has had a historic problem in adapting the use of self-development. The concept is misunderstood, our definitions change frequently and often conflict, the graphic display of our leader development model is unclear, we lack practical guidance on how it could be executed, we confuse it with institutional learning, we lack supporting materials, and our leaders often lack the experience to mentor soldiers how to self-develop."

Germany, Wilsonianism, and the Return of Realpolitik
By Dominik Wullers, War on the Rocks: "Until now, President Woodrow Wilson was the American statesman and moralist who implicitly shaped German foreign policy thinking."
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ECONOMIC PANIC IS HERE & THE POLITICAL CENTER RIGHT IS COLLAPSING THROUGHOUT EUROPE

3/11/2020

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ASIA TIMES
Europe’s dying center-right
Dalibor Rohac | The American Interest
The space between the cosmopolitan and progressive politics of the left and the vulgar nationalism of the populist right is shrinking. Dalibor Rohac's recent political experience attests to it.
Following last month’s Slovakian parliamentary elections, Dalibor Rohac took to the American Interest to argue that the space between the cosmopolitan and progressive politics of the left and the vulgar nationalism of the populist right is shrinking. Attesting to his recent political candidacy, Rohac concludes that that there is not much of an appetite for center-right policies among the public. That makes the question of what the future holds for European People’s Party, Europe’s largest coalition of political parties, all the more urgent. Read it here.
Game of power politics far from over in Pakistan By IMAD ZAFAR
Did the US just concede defeat in China tech war?
It’s time for ‘President Xi to go’ By GORDON WATTS
US stocks with stable cash flows that used to trade like bonds have fallen faster than the overall market during the past few days. That’s an alarm bell for the US economy, which for the past decade has gorged on cheap leverage provided by the Federal Reserve. Investors are running away from the credit risk of seemingly safe sectors like real estate and utilities. When the safest stocks aren’t safe anymore, the world looks a lot riskier to everyone. Read More
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IRAN BARELY HANGS ON:  MAXIMUM PRESSURE CONTINUES & HOW TO UNDERSTAND HYPERSONICS

3/10/2020

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Iran Can't Hide Its Dystopian Hellscape by Seth Frantzman
The Jerusalem Post
March 14, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/60575/rouhani-warns-media-to-suppress-virus-coverage
UNDERSTANDING HYPERSONICS
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Crisis Of The Iranian Order
by Tony Badran via The Caravan
The “transnational”: this is how Qassem Soleimani, the former head of Iran’s Qods Force, who was killed in a January U.S. missile strike in Baghdad, is described in Hezbollah-run schools in Lebanon. 

The Islamic Republic Soldiering On
by Sanam Vakil via The Caravan
A look back at the past few months of tumultuous domestic events in Iran and around the Middle East might lend favour to the view that Donald Trump’s maximum pressure campaign against the Islamic Republic is destabilising and weakening Iran alongsi
Iran Doesn't Understand 'Maximum Pressure'
by Victor Davis Hanson via National Review
The theocracy grows more desperate by the day and can no longer rely on its usual tactics to thwart its Arab enemies and the West.
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EGYPT AFTER MUBARAK & THE MIDDLE EAST UNRAVELS BEGINNING WITH TURKISH BLACKMAIL

3/3/2020

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Are the Forever Wars Really Forever? with Sarah E. Kreps, Paul Miller, Will Ruger, and Ryan Evans
Turkish Government Responsible for Torture, Arbitrary Killings, and Disappearances
​Erdogan turns to oil in a bid to salvage Syria policy
Turkey’s president eyes oil-related bargains in Syria after failing to achieve his stated objectives in Idlib and acquiescing to a new deal with Russia in the rebel stronghold.
Turkey seeks Syria deal with Europe as it begins joint patrols with Russia 

The leaders of Turkey, Germany and France are scheduled to gather in Istanbul on Tuesday to tackle the surge in refugees fleeing Syria as the Bashar al-Assad regime presses its offensive against the last rebel bastion in Idlib province. Frustrated by what it sees as Western inaction and lackluster support in a crisis that has seen more than 1 million Syrians flee toward the Turkish border, Ankara has opened its borders to migrants seeking to enter Europe, creating a crisis for Greece and other Turkish neighbors. Ankara is requesting air defense support to back its troops in Syria and wants more European funding to help defray the costs of the 3.5 million refugees Turkey now hosts. The summit is expected to focus mainly on financial assistance, with European leaders reluctant to get more involved in the war.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson may also join Presidents Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Emmanuel Macron and Chancellor Angela Merkel, Turkish officials said on Thursday. The coronavirus pandemic, however, may throw those plans in disarray. A German government official signaled today that the summit may be postponed as Europe copes with the spread of the virus. Meanwhile, Russia, which declined to participate in next week's summit, is set to begin joint patrols with Turkish military forces along Syria's east-west M4 highway on Sunday, in accordance with the deal struck between Turkey and Russia in Moscow last week.
Erdogan’s war in Idlib faces uphill battle on the home front
 Having failed to deliver on his ultimatum to the Assad regime, Erdogan now has a serious credibility problem domestically.
Some Syrian regime fighters defecting when forced to front lines
 With renewed fighting in northern Syria, regime officers are transferring conscripted young men from Daraa in the south to the front lines of the battles, leading to defections.
Intel: Despite new Idlib deal, Russia, Turkey look to strengthen leverage in Syria
 Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar spoke by phone with his Russain counterpart Sergey Shoigu March 10 about the progress of the bipartisan protocol over Idlib that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan signed in Moscow on March 5.
‘Let them cross’: Turkey’s president defiant on Europe border crisis
Turkey's president, after meeting with EU leaders, says Greece should open its border with Turkey to migrants and then let them cross into other European countries; Russian and Turkish patrols for a new security corridor straddling Syria's M4 highway also are set.
Libyan front looks bleak for Erdogan
While struggling to achieve its objectives in Syria, Ankara has helped Damascus gain a new ally in the opponents of the forces Turkey is backing in Libya.
Islamist Parties in Turkey: A Perpetual Matryoshka by Burak Bekdil
BESA Center Perspectives
March 9, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/60555/islamist-parties-in-turkey-a-perpetual-matryoshka
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EGYPT AFTER THE ARAB SPRING & MUBARAK:   Finish it here.
Turkey's Erdogan threatens Europe with 'millions' of migrants
 al-monitor.com
Europe Must Not Fall Victim to Erdoğan's Blackmail by Burak Bekdil
The Gatestone Institute
March 6, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/60537/europe-must-not-fall-victim-to-erdogans-blackmail
Erdogan's Attempts to Blackmail Europe are Doomed to Fail by Con Coughlin  
Don't Expect a Turkey-Russia War in Syria by Jonathan Spyer
The Jerusalem Post
March 6, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/60536/turkish-syrian-conflict
 Turkey launches military offensive against Syria 
Turkey on Sunday launched what it called Operation Spring Shield against Bashar al-Assad's forces in northern Syria, shooting down two Russian-made Syrian air force jets. Turkey said it had destroyed several air defense systems and more than 100 tanks and killed more than 2,000 Syrian troops, including three generals, since Feb. 27 airstrikes killed three dozen Turkish soldiers in Idlib province, Syria's last rebel bastion. Turkish forces have also been hitting Syrian Kurdish positions.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said today he hopes to reach a “cease-fire agreement” with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin when they meet on Thursday. That same day, US special envoy for Syria James Jeffrey will lead a delegation to Turkey for a summit on the Idlib escalation.
 Read More  
al-monitor.com
As Erdogan’s reliance on Russia grows, NATO hopes to win back wayward Turkey
Iraqi prime minister-designate quits 
Iraq's prime minister-designate Mohammed Tawfiq Allawi withdrew his candidacy for the post on Sunday after parliament failed for the second time in a week to approve his Cabinet, deepening the political crisis in the country. President Barham Salih announced he would designate a replacement prime minister within 15 days. The country could be without a prime minister if Adel Abdul Mahdi, who had stayed on in a caretaker capacity since resigning in October, decides to step down.
Read More  
al-monitor.com
Libya's eastern government visits Syria amid shared tensions with Turkey 
Libya's eastern-based government sent a delegation to Syria on Sunday, the first such visit since the Syrian war broke out in 2011. Libyan officials met with Foreign Minister Walid Moallem in Damascus and agreed to reopen diplomatic missions. The officials also discussed the “Turkish aggression against both brotherly countries,” Syria’s state news agency said. The visit comes as fighting escalates in Libya between the Turkish-backed government in Tripoli and forces loyal to eastern military commander Khalifa Hifter despite a cease-fire announced last week.
Read More  
apnews.com
Tunisia hosts Arab interior ministers summit 
The Arab Interior Ministers Council began its annual meeting in Tunis on Sunday. Saudi Interior Minister Abdulaziz bin Saud bin Nayef bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, who is heading the council, met with Tunisian President Kais Saied to discuss the “deep-rooted Saudi-Tunisian ties.” The two-day meeting will discuss ways to boost joint security cooperation between Arab countries to fight terrorism and prevent crime.
Read More  ​
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BIBI WINS ISRAEL AGAIN:  HERE'S WHY & HOW PUTIN REMAINS PRIME MINISTER FOR LIFE

3/3/2020

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​There's little left of Israel’s left
 By deciding to join the Netanyahu-Gantz government, Labor Party Chairman Amir Peretz put the final nail in the coffin of the party that founded the State of Israel.
The Struggle for Israel's Jewish Soul by Efraim Karsh and Gershon Hacohen
BESA Center Perspectives
March 16, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/60579/the-struggle-for-israel-jewish-soul
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Beyond Netanyahu's TriumphE
ditorial of The New York Sun | March 2, 2020
https://www.nysun.com/editorials/beyond-net
Vladimir Gelman: “An intention to preserve the political status quo and Putin’s authority is seen in the constitutional reform”
In an interview with IMR, political scientist Vladimir Gelman, professor of the European University in St. Petersburg and the University of Helsinki, discusses the origins of Russia’s bad governance, the goals of Vladimir Putin’s recent political initiatives, and the Western elite’s “jealousy.” ≫
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    BEYOND COUNTER-TERRORISM
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    HOW THE SALIFI-JIHADI MOVEMENT IS WINNING
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