EMERGING THREATS U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY

CONDITIONS FOR ANOTHER ARAB SPRING ARRIVE

3/22/2023

The Role Of U.S. Diplomacy In Countering Russia’s Nuclear Threats And Misbehavior
by Rose Gottemoeller via Texas National Security Review

What’s in the Saudi Iranian Beijing Deal

How to Keep Antisemitism Away From Turtle Bay

As Ramadan arrives, inflation chokes Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia
In North African nations, higher food costs will make it harder to access supplies for the festive month.

Russia's Wagner activities expanding in Libya despite growing Western scrutiny
The Wagner Group has sought to use Libya as a forward base for its activities in the Sahel region, particularly Chad and Niger, while building spheres of influence with local communities and smuggling networks in the southern border regions of Libya.

For Pakistan, many opportunities, questions in China's Iran-Saudi deal
Having often been caught in the middle between the rivals, Pakistan is looking forward to calmer Saudi-Iran relations and reaping economic benefits through its partner, China.

Israel Braces for Violence During Ramadan

Wars of the Jewish state

WINEP’s Matthew Levitt: Hezbollah infiltrates Israel (Part 1): Another step toward changing the rules of the game

Max J. Prowant writes: In short, diplomacy between Saudi Arabia and Iran is neither inimical to U.S. interests nor is it a herald of a new era of Middle East peace. U.S. policymakers should welcome any effort to ease tensions between the countries. It should also continue to strengthen an alliance between Saudi Arabia and Israel. The Abraham Accords, not the Beijing talks, will bring a more lasting peace to the Middle East. – The National Interest

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FRAGILE STATE: PAKISTAN

3/8/2023

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THE FRIDAY TIMES

Discussing China’s Foreign Policy
Sheena Chestnut Greitens | National Committee on US-China Relations

Five Years After a Disastrous Syria Battle, Wagner Is More Dangerous Than Ever
By Kyle Sajoyan, RealClearDefense: “The Defense Department’s top procurement official is taking aim at watchdog-type laws that are put in place to discourage corruption in government.”

Putin Truly Fears Russia’s Potential Rupture
By Paul Goble, Eurasia Daily Monitor: “In February 2023, when President Vladimir Putin referred to the possibility that not only the Russian Federation but also the Russian nation itself could disintegrate, commentators in both Moscow and the West agreed almost unanimously that he was engaged in a propaganda exercise rather than expressing his own views."

A Strategy of Denial for the Western Pacific
By Elbridge Colby, Proceedings: “China aspires to dominate the Indo-Pacific region—the impact of which would dramatically undermine Americans’ security, freedom, and prosperity. The only workable strategy is to deny China this goal. The naval services will play a central role."

We May Already be in a Cold War with China
By Joseph DeTrani, The Cipher Brief: "Although bilateral trade with China in 2022 increased to a record $690.6 billion, bilateral relations deteriorated to their lowest level since the normalization of relations in 1979."

Conflict Realism:
A New School of Thought for Examining the Future of Armed Conflict
By Amos Fox, Strategy Bridge: “The future of armed conflict is a divisive topic in which competing camps and actors grapple to control the narrative."

Biden’s State Department ignores Iranian death plots inside America

Yair Albeck and Jonathan Schachter write: The place to begin is clear: renewed enforcement of U.S. sanctions against Iran and the activation of the JCPOA’s snapback mechanism, which would reimpose international sanctions and a ban on the transfer of arms to and from Iran. Doing so would help the United States achieve its goals — not just with Iran, but in Ukraine and around the world. – The Hill

Jonathan Lis writes: “Iran started to break the agreement systematically only after the United States pulled out of it. It did so for two main reasons. Alongside the desire in principle to advance its nuclear abilities, the detected breaches were mostly tactical, to leverage pressures to resume the agreement and understanding the other side had breached the agreement anyway,” an Israeli official said. – Haaretz

Shaul Bartal writes: Actions by Islamic Jihad have the potential to aggravate the security situation and lead to suspension of Israel’s security cooperation with the Palestinian Authority, as occurred after the Jenin operation. Israeli decision-makers must understand the nature of the struggle and continue to act against Islamic Jihad’s entrenchment as a significant military force in the West Bank. This is essential in order to prevent the “unity of the fronts” that Iran is trying to achieve through the proxy organizations, with Islamic Jihad at the forefront. – Algemeiner

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NORTHERN IRELAND: AFTER GOOD FRIDAY, MANAGING THE PROTOCOL

3/3/2023

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NORTHERN IRELAND UK GUARDIAN

UK GUARDIAN

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a compromise yesterday (Bloomberg) on trade rules that have sown tensions since the United Kingdom (UK) left the European Union (EU) in 2020. The new deal, the Windsor Framework, would reduce customs checks (NYT) imposed on goods traded between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. It will also allow the Northern Irish government an emergency veto over EU laws.

Sunak is in Belfast today seeking support for the deal. It does not technically require ratification, but Sunak said the UK House of Commons will vote on it “at the appropriate time.” Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) has boycotted participation (FT) in Northern Ireland’s legislature since May 2022 over certain post-Brexit rules. The DUP’s leader said the new deal addressed some of the party’s concerns, but others remain.

“There is no doubt that Brexit soured the good relations that had existed between the UK and Ireland because of their joint interest in Northern Ireland affairs in the wake of the Good Friday Agreement. The hope now is that the Windsor Framework will allow a reset, not just between the two states but also between the UK and the wider EU,” the BBC’s Shane Harrison writes.

“Driven as it was by English politicians and English voters, Brexit could only increase disaffection from the United Kingdom in both Northern Ireland and Scotland,” Princeton University’s Fintan O’Toole writes for Foreign Affairs. “In legal fact, Brexit has set in train a process of detaching Northern Ireland from Great Britain.”

The Palestinians' New Terror Groups by Bassam Tawi

Rethinking Israeli Foreign Policy In Turbulent Times

JPost’s Seth J. Frantzman: Iran’s diminishing returns on enriching uranium

Brookings Institution’s Adam Lammon: Hezbollah financier arrested as Lebanon teeters toward collapse

Annika Ganzeveld, Kitaneh Fitzpatrick, Johanna Moore, Amin Soltani, and Frederick W. Kagan write: The Iranian regime has apparently failed to take measures to protect schools following 46 separate reports of chemical poisonings targeting schoolgirls throughout the country on March 1. […] The US Naval Forces Central Command announced that US forces supported a UK-led interdiction of an illegal Iranain weapons shipment in the Gulf of Oman on February 23. – Institute for the Study of War

Jo Inge Bekkevold writes: China’s geopolitical position, including its lack of true superpower status, has two main strategic implications. First, in a short to medium-term perspective, the U.S.-China rivalry will be regional—restricted to Asia and the Indo-Pacific—and a predominantly naval contest. […] The other and more long-term strategic implication concerns any attempts by China to leapfrog the geopolitical constraints of its home region. The manner in which China sets about doing this, and United States’ efforts to prevent it, would then define their rivalry. – Foreign Policy

The Persistent Threat of Nuclear Crises Among China, India and Pakistan

Daniel Markey on Strategic Stability in Southern Asia

DANIEL MARKEY.ORG

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EMERGING THREAT ASSESSMENT
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CONDITIONS FOR ANOTHER ARAB SPRING ARRIVE

FRAGILE STATE: PAKISTAN

NORTHERN IRELAND: AFTER GOOD FRIDAY, MANAGING THE PROTOCOL

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EMERGING THREAT ASSESSMENTGLOBAL STRIKE MEDIA.COM NORTH AMERICA

CONDITIONS FOR ANOTHER ARAB SPRING ARRIVE

FRAGILE STATE: PAKISTAN

NORTHERN IRELAND: AFTER GOOD FRIDAY, MANAGING THE PROTOCOL

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EMERGING THREAT ASSESSMENT
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