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 The U.S. will send the Army's High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) rocket launcher system to Turkey in order to help the NATO ally deal with the threat from the Islamic State along its border, Reuters reports. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu told reporters that the U.S. would deploy the system to the southeast of the country in May. Turkey has complained to coalition allies about the uptick in rocket attacks along its border from motorcycle-borne Islamic State fighters.
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 Russia conducted a flight test of a revolutionary hypersonic glide vehicle last week that will deliver nuclear or conventional warheads through advanced missile defenses, U.S. defense officials said. – Washington Free Beacon Bill Gertz reports: The U.S. is moving to counter Chinese and Russian hypersonic strike vehicles using lasers, the director of the Pentagon's Missile Defense Agency revealed last week. – Washington Times’ Inside the Ring Russian attack submarines, the most in two decades, are prowling the coastlines of Scandinavia and Scotland, the Mediterranean Sea and the North Atlantic in what Western military officials say is a significantly increased presence aimed at contesting American and NATO undersea dominance. – New York Times Russia warned the United States on Wednesday against operating in the Baltic Sea close to its borders, hinting that incidents such as week’s buzzing of a U.S. Navy destroyer would continue – The Hill Michael O’Hanlon writes: The case for working to build a more stable U.S.-Russian relationship in the future is already unpopular enough in American politics—it must not be conflated with a sympathetic or favorable interpretation of the Russian autocrat. – Brookings Institution
Ilan Berman writes: If Putin succeeds with his plan, he will have codified an even stronger grip on the levers of political and policing power through an increasingly monolithic, authoritarian security structure more beholden than ever to the Russian president personally. That makes the name of Putin’s new federal agency something of a misnomer. Its concern, after all, won’t be with protecting the Russian nation as a whole but rather with safeguarding and expanding the power of just one citizen in it. – World Affairs Journal  Russian attack submarines, the most in two decades, are prowling the coastlines of Scandinavia and Scotland, the Mediterranean Sea and the North Atlantic in what Western military officials say is a significantly increased presence aimed at contesting American and NATO undersea dominance. – New York Times
Ambassadors from Russia and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization met on Wednesday for the first time in nearly two years, amid rising military tensions between Russia and the U.S. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required) Just in time for his 146th birthday this weekend, a majority of Russians in a new poll now say that Soviet dictator Vladimir Lenin played a largely positive role in the country's history. – Washington Times Russia warned the United States on Wednesday against operating in the Baltic Sea close to its borders, hinting that incidents such as week’s buzzing of a U.S. Navy destroyer would continue – The Hill The new chief of the Russian Election Commission has responded to allegations of fraud in an election in a Moscow suburb and called off the vote. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Amnesty International is accusing Moscow of "lending a helping hand" to torture in Uzbekistan by aiding in the forcible returns of hundreds of Uzbek nationals from Russia. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty The editor-in-chief of Russia's RBC media group, whose outlets published disclosures about the commercial interests of people close to President Vladimir Putin, is to leave her job to start a sabbatical four months earlier than planned. - Reuters Michael O’Hanlon writes: The case for working to build a more stable U.S.-Russian relationship in the future is already unpopular enough in American politics—it must not be conflated with a sympathetic or favorable interpretation of the Russian autocrat. – Brookings Institution Ilan Berman writes: If Putin succeeds with his plan, he will have codified an even stronger grip on the levers of political and policing power through an increasingly monolithic, authoritarian security structure more beholden than ever to the Russian president personally. That makes the name of Putin’s new federal agency something of a misnomer. Its concern, after all, won’t be with protecting the Russian nation as a whole but rather with safeguarding and expanding the power of just one citizen in it. – World Affairs Journal  The Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank in Washington, D.C., has posted online a new assessment of China’s aircraft carrier, including a 3-D interactive graphic of the Liaoning warship. – Military.com
 North Korea’s first attempt to test-launch a new intermediate-range missile last week failed after the Musudan blew up shortly after launch, causing a huge fireball that damaged the mobile launcher, according to American defense officials. – Washington Free Beacon
The next commander of US forces in South Korea is concerned the readiness of reinforcements slated to fall in on rotations in the country could be slipping as North Korea grows more provocative. – Defense News North Korea’s asymmetric warfare potential is being bolstered by one of the world’s best and most organized cyber attack capabilities, according to the Army general nominated to command U.S. forces in South Korea. - Bloomberg North Korea is “moving in the wrong direction” with its escalating approach to crisis on the peninsula and in the region while voicing threats of nuclear attack on the United States and its allies and partners, the Army four-star general nominated to take command of U.S. forces in Korea told the Senate Armed Services Committee on Tuesday. – USNI News A fifth North Korean nuclear test could trigger new sanctions including an effort to choke off hard currency earnings by its workers abroad, the top U.S. diplomat for the Asia-Pacific region has said. - Reuters The four-star Army general picked to lead American forces in Korea says it's less expensive to keep U.S. troops stationed in South Korea than in the United States. – Associated Press  The Defense Department is sending the A-10 Warthog, the ugly-as-sin close air support plane beloved of ground troops, to the Philippines. The Defense Department said Friday that the U.S. will send five A-10, along with HH-60G Pave Hawk and MC-130H Combat Talon planes, for a rotation to the Philippines as part of recently-signed Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement between the U.S. and Philippines. China & Pacific Rim China conducted another flight test of its newest and longest-range intercontinental ballistic missile last week amid growing tensions with the United States over the South China Sea. – Washington Free Beacon The United States has not revoked its invitation to China to participate in this year’s Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) exercise despite increasingly aggressive behavior towards its neighbors in the South China Sea because the U.S. hopes China may still participate in a “system of cooperative nations,” Defense Secretary Ash Carter said April 15 aboard the aircraft carrier USS John C. Stennis (CVN-74). – USNI News Elbridge Colby and Wu Riqiang write: Nuclear weapons are likely to loom larger in Sino-U.S. relations in light of China’s rise, the growing tensions in the Asia-Pacific, and the potential for irritants in the relationship to result in conflict. It is vital that the two sides cooperate intelligently to promote strategic stability, both to prevent an arms race and to keep accidents and misperceptions from becoming conflicts or driving further escalation. – Defense One Changing U.S. Policy on China
Richard Fontaine and Mira Rapp-Hooper write: Effective and enduring U.S. global leadership requires that policymakers accept a new normal in the relationship with China. China will cooperate in some areas and compete in others. The next American administration will need to simultaneously work with China on climate change, shape Beijing’s emerging economic institutions, and stand tough on cyber security and the South China Sea. – The National Interest  Zbignew Brezinski writes: Since the next twenty years may well be the last phase of the more traditional and familiar political alignments with which we have grown comfortable, the response needs to be shaped now. During the rest of this century, humanity will also have to be increasingly preoccupied with survival as such on account of a confluence of environmental challenges. Those challenges can only be addressed responsibly and effectively in a setting of increased international accommodation. And that accommodation has to be based on a strategic vision that recognizes the urgent need for a new geopolitical framework. – The American Interest
 Hannah Thoburn writes: Twice in recent memory—the Orange Revolution in 2004-2005 and the Revolution of Dignity in 2013-2014—ordinary Ukrainians have taken to the streets to protest the rampant and unrepentant corruption of its elites. Only by bringing down governments through violent social unrest have they been able to force through even small changes. Should he maintain obdurate insistence on dragging his feet over one of the issues most important to the Ukrainian people, Poroshenko risks teaching them that such protests are the only way that Ukraine can ever see change. – The American Interest In the first 25 years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Moscow worked hard to bury Kaliningrad’s reputation as an armed garrison closed to foreigners. These days, the Kremlin seems determined to do the opposite, and senior Western military officials and other experts now regard the Baltic region as a main fault line in revived East-West tensions. – New York Times
Western sanctions are pushing Russia to explore deeper financial links with China, according to Moscow’s deputy finance minister. – Financial Times  Russia is opening a new front in its battle for a bigger share of the global oil market: India. Later this year, Russian state-controlled oil giant OAO Rosneft plans to start sending its first regular deliveries of crude to India’s second largest oil refinery. That follows Rosneft’s decision to buy a big stake in India’s Essar Oil, which owns the refinery and a network of around 2,000 gas stations. The purchase is set to be completed this year. – WSJ’s India Real Time India has agreed to pay $8.8 billion to France's Dassault for 36 fighter jets, reports said Friday, as sources from both countries hinted a long-delayed deal to purchase the aircraft was imminent. - AFP Wholesale prices fall for 17th straight month in March
According to government data released on Monday, the wholesale price index (WPI) in India fell for the 17th straight month in March (Reuters). The index fell by an annual 0.85 percent last month, and analyst believe the reason behind the decline is the drop in the prices of oil and manufactured goods. WPI is the price of a representative basket of wholesale goods and was widely used to measure inflation, however India recently adopted the Consumer Price Index to measure inflation. Wholesale fuel prices in March were 8.3 percent lower than March last year, and the price of manufactured goods was 0.13 percent lower year on year. On the other hand, Food prices in India rose by 3.73 percent year-on-year in March.  Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif left Pakistan on Wednesday for cardiac medical treatment in London that he described as a checkup (NYT). The timing of the visit immediately prompted rumors that Sharif might not return to Pakistan until investigations into the unfolding Panama Papers document leak were completed. The leak revealed that three of his children controlled shell companies through which they owned expensive real estate in London. The prime minister and his family have denied any wrong-doing. In his absence, Finance Minister Ishaq Dar is leading cabinet meetings this week, however, government officials said that Sharif will return on Sunday.
 Army Lt. Gen H.R. McMaster, director of the Army Capabilities Integration Center, is at work on a secret study to assess the threat Russia poses to the United States, according to a scoop from Politico. Dubbed the "Russia New Generation Warfare Study," the study is expected to have a strong influence on Army training and procurement in the near future. Among the early conclusions are that Russian artillery and anti-tank weapons pose a greater risk to the kinds of relatively light American armor the U.S. has relied on in Iraq and Afghanistan. Russian political subversion -- given the hot new buzzword "hybrid warfare" -- also registers as a concern in the study.
 Emily Estelle writes: Allowing al Qaeda to expand its safe haven in Libya would threaten American interests and those of our European allies. From a perch in Libya, al Qaeda could plan and conduct more attacks against the West, infiltrate refugee flows, and destabilize Libya’s neighbors. So, while al Qaeda is trying to lie low as the West focuses on ISIS, we shouldn’t fall into its trap. By all means, we should develop a counter-ISIS strategy for Libya — but we’ll need a counter-al Qaeda strategy to go along with it. – American Enterprise Institute
 Resurgent Dictatorship: Coercive Diplomacy Assisting Russian Regime
Summary: Lilia Shevtsova writes: The Russian regime is experimenting with a three-pronged strategy against which the West is struggling to react: “to be against the West; to be inside of the West; to be with the West.” The Kremlin’s domestic resources are shrinking, and to preserve its power is relying on a shift toward military-patriotic legitimacy driven by Russia’s military forays into Ukraine and Syria, its conflict with Turkey, and confrontation with the liberal democracies.  FPI Senior Policy Analyst Tzvi Kahn writes: The S-300 sale to Iran thus serves mutually reinforcing Iranian and Russian goals. For Tehran, the system facilitates its quest for regional dominance, which relies primarily on proxies in the Gulf and the Levant. For Moscow, the system enables it to project power in the Middle East through its Iranian ally, combat Western influence, and ultimately advance its revanchist ambition to undermine American global leadership. – National Review Online
Frederick Kagan and John Miller write: Reports are swirling that Russia is finally delivering an advanced S-300 air defense system to Iran, although they may be premature again. The implications of that and the other items on Iran’s military shopping list need our attention fast. – Fox News  Summary:
Seth Cropsey writes: The U.S. has emerged into a new world. To the potential for nuclear warfare with a would-be peer competitor—China—that American statesmen most wished to avoid after the Cold War have been added threats from a nuclear-armed Russia, North Korea, and sooner or later, Iran. The more immediate prospect of a triple hegemony may not be an existential threat. But its outcome would cripple our markets, destroy our alliances, and endanger us where we live. All can be avoided by a change in grand strategy that continues to hold threats at a distance as it relies on the independence, accessibility, and technological superiority of seapower.  Beijing has sent J-11 fighter jets to Woody Island, the disputed island claimed by both Taiwan and Vietnam in the South China Sea, according to satellite imagery obtained by Fox News. The J-11 air superiority fighter is China's take on the Russian Su-27 Flanker. The arrival, however, is not the first trip to Woody Island for the J-11, as the jets made an appearance there in satellite imagery from November 2015. The recent imagery also shows that China has completed its deployment of surface-to-air missiles on the island with the addition of fire control radars.
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