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EMERGING THREAT ASSESSMENT
GLOBAL STRIKE MEDIA.COM 
NORTH AMERICA 

THE SAHEL JIHADI ECOSYSTEM THREAT

4/24/2020

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The Challenge of Boko Haram Defectors in Chad by Bulama Bukarti
Salafi-jihadi ecosystem in the Sahel
Katherine Zimmerman | American Enterprise Institute
Interactive graphic: Salafi-jihadi ecosystem in the Sahel
Katherine Zimmerman | American Enterprise Institute
Mozambique Is Emerging As The Next Islamic Extremist Hotspot // Patrick Tucker: A terror group affiliated with the Islamic State has been stepping up tactics and claiming bigger targets.
Secretary of Defense Mark Esper has been considering drawing down US military commitments in Africa as the Pentagon rebalances toward competing more directly with Russia and China. The coronavirus pandemic and effect on Africa has delayed the expected decision over whether to cut troop numbers, close a new drone base in Niger, and end support to the French in the Sahel.

In a recent AEI report, 
Katherine Zimmerman assesses Salafi-jihadi groups in West Africa’s Sahel region and concludes that groups such as al Qaeda and the Islamic State are strengthening rapidly.

Al Qaeda– and Islamic State–linked groups have expanded from an initial insurgency in northern Mali to neighboring Burkina Faso and Niger, and they continue to grow stronger despite the array of security forces aligned against them. The threat is often forgotten in US policy circles until attacks occur like the one in Niger that killed four US servicemen in October 2017.

​Reducing US operations and the support the US provides to French and other forces in Africa would weaken the ability of US diplomats and aid workers who rely on the security US forces provide to operate, open space for global competitors, and increase instability in the region. Does the US have the adequate military strength to manage a rising China while still dealing with terrorist threats? 
AFRICA FILE: COMMON THREADS IN MALI, LIBYA, AND MOZAMBIQUE
 
READ THE LATEST EDITION HERE
 
Three failing African states took dramatic turns in the past two weeks—one toward uncertain progress and two even further from stability. The trajectories of Mali, Mozambique, and Libya will shape the African Salafi-jihadi movement and will interact with other negative trends—including destabilizing geopolitical competition—to fuel conflicts with regional and extra-regional implications.

Mali, Libya, and Mozambique demonstrate to different degrees the intersection among state fragility, geopolitical competition, and the Salafi-jihadi threat. Mali and Mozambique risk becoming hosts to disruptive rivalries like those that have prolonged and deepened Libya’s war. Collapsing governance across all three countries will help the Salafi-jihadi movement establish enduring havens that will strengthen the movement globally.

Read the full brief here. 
​

"Vicious cycles: How disruptive states and extremist movements fill power vacuums and fuel each other," Emily Estelle, August 2020.
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OBAMA'S WUHAN RESEARCH WITH CHINA

4/24/2020

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Is H. R. McMaster the New Mr. X?
By Francis P. Sempa, The Diplomat: “Comparing McMaster’s China prescriptions to George Kennan’s famous containment strategy."
https://www.amazon.com/Invention-Surgery-Medicine-Renaissance-Revolution/dp/B082XHP3YJ/ref=tmm_aud_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr=
Why US outsourced bat virus research to Wuhan
The US National Institutes of Health (NIH) funded bat-coronavirus research in the Wuhan Institute of Virology in China. Back in October 2014, the US government had placed a federal moratorium on gain-of-function (GOF) research – altering natural pathogens to make them more deadly and infectious – as a result of rising fears about a possible pandemic caused by an accidental or deliberate release of these genetically engineered monster germs.
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Why Beijing must change before it’s too late
The Covid-19 pandemic is really a consequence, not a cause, of the geopolitical confrontation between the United States and China. Had there been mutual trust and good bilateral relations, Beijing might have been less defensive about the early outbreak of the disease, the US might have better understood the spread of the virus out of Wuhan and the global damage of the deadly flu might have been better contained.
 Read More
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IRANIAN TERROR MASTER VISITS IRAQ; AL-MONITOR COVERS SYRIAN RUSSIAN TIES

4/20/2020

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The Quds Force Commander's Visit to Iraq
By Dr. Doron Itzchakov, April 16, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The recent visit to Iraq by the new Quds Force commander, Esmail Qaani, had several purposes: to display the continuity of Tehran’s involvement in the country, to rally the Shiite factions against the formation of a pro-US government by Adnan Zurfi, and to enable Qaani to stake a claim as a worthy successor to Qassem Soleimani. Yet Zurfi’s abdication and his replacement by Mustafa Kadhimi does not necessarily constitute an Iranian achievement because of Kadhimi’s diverse political associations and ties across the Middle East and the international arena.

Continue to full article ->
Why Russia’s grip on Syrian military is weaker than it seems
 Russia’s attempts to centralize the command of numerous pro-Assad militias operating in Syria have been a mixed bag, to say the least.
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THE WORLD AFTER COVID

4/20/2020

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Thoughts about the shape of things to come in the post-pandemic world
Nicholas Eberstadt | National Bureau for Asian Research
The COVID-19 pandemic has precipitated the deepest and most fundamental crisis for Pax Americana that this set of global economic and security arrangements has faced in the past three postwar generations.
COVID-19 took away public education. Will we miss it?
Frederick M. Hess | National Review
Schools have a dual mission: social and academic. Distance learning is a shoddy stopgap for addressing, at best, one-half of that mandate.
From the new edition of National Affairs: The erosion of deep literacy
Adam Garfinkle | National Affairs
China’s gross domestic product falls at a double-digit rate  
Derek Scissors | AEIdeas
What’s Left of) Our Economy: Not All CCP Virus Lessons are Created Equal
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MODI'S PARTY IN INDIA BULLY'S LARGEST MUSLIM PROVENCE

4/17/2020

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CHINA TESTS NUKES IN ITS INTERIOR & ORTEGA DISAPPEARS

4/16/2020

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Possible Chinese Nuclear Testing Stirs U.S. Concern
By Gordon Lubold, The Wall Street Journal: “China might be secretly conducting nuclear tests with very low explosive power despite Beijing's assertions that it is strictly adhering to an international accord banning all nuclear tests, according to a new arms-control report to be made public by the State Department."
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HOW TURKEY SCREWS THE US:  RUSSIAN TRIANGULATION AND THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD

4/16/2020

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Turkey’s intervention in Libya turns tide to Erdogan’s advantage, for now
 Ankara has thrown in its lot with the Government of National Accord for reasons that have more to do with its own interests than Libya’s.
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Turkey and Pakistan: a special relationship?
Gulf of Guinea: stepping up to the maritime-security challenge?
Turkey, the S-400 and the F-35
Turkey Is Building a Geopolitical Alliance Between Sunni and Shiite Islamists
Turkey: Erdoğan's Post-Corona, Existential Economic Challenge by Burak Bekdil
The Gatestone Institute
April 15, 2020

https://www.meforum.org/60694/erdogans-post-corona-economic-challenge
​Why Is Turkey Embracing Hamas?  by Khaled Abu Toameh  • 
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AFRICOM HITS BIG TARGET & ISIS IN AFGHANISTAN CAUGHT

4/8/2020

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Leak Reveals Jihadists’ Weakening Grip in Syria’s Idlib by Sam Heller
Counter-Terrorism in East Africa: The Death of Yusuf Jiis with Christoper Anzalone
AFRICOM kills ‘foundational’ Shabaab leader in strike
AFRICOM has stepped up its air campaign against Shabaab since the beginning of the year, targeting the group 33 times.

​Generation Jihad: Ep. 4 – ISIS: A History of the Caliphate​
Hosts Tom Joscelyn and Bill Roggio discuss the rise of ISIS and how the idea of building a caliphate in Iraq evolved over time. Bill witnessed the jihadists' earliest state-building efforts during multiple embeds in Iraq.
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PUTIN THE RUSSIAN TSAR:  INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF RUSSIA EXAMINES PUTIN'S ROLE

4/7/2020

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Don’t Forget the Historical Context of Russo-Turkish Competition with Jeffrey Mankoff
RUSSIA:
Sukhoi to Deliver Stealth Fighter Su-57 This Year

By Franz-Stefan Gady, The Diplomat: "Sukhoi Corporation aims to start deliveries of its Su-57 fighter aircraft, Russia’s first purported indigenously designed and built fifth-generation stealth fighter, to the Russian Aerospace Forces in 2020."
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Five Patterns of the Putin Regime
On March 26, IMR launched the “Russia under Putin” project, which includes a timeline of the country’s key political developments over the last 20 years. This factual digest serves not only to refresh one’s memory but also to retrace the Putin regime’s evolution and its modus operandi. IMR’s Olga Khvostunova highlights the key patterns of this regime and explains what they mean. ≫
DOWNLOAD THE REPORT
Putin’s Rules
In March, Russia’s Constitutional Court approved the proposed amendments to the Constitution, clearing the way for Vladimir Putin to stay in power beyond 2024, with the upcoming referendum likely being a mere formality. The swiftness of the process signals that legitimacy through adherence to formal rules no longer matters to Putin, and, perhaps, never did. ≫
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    Peering into crystal ball; future of war
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    salafi-jihadi-ecosystem-in-the-sahel.pdf
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    BEYOND COUNTER-TERRORISM
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    HOW THE SALIFI-JIHADI MOVEMENT IS WINNING
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