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NORTH AMERICA 

china:  regional/international conflict emerging

5/31/2016

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China hopes to get relations with the Philippines back on track, President Xi Jinping has told new Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, after ties were affected by an increasingly bitter spat over territorial claims in the South China Sea. – Reuters
 
Nearly 27 years later, the carnage of June 4, 1989, remains a raw political scar in China. So raw that a man has been detained on subversion charges, his supporters say, because he shared pictures of liquor bottles labeled to mark the day soldiers extinguished democracy protests based in Tiananmen Square in Beijing. – New York Times
 
China will "pressure" the United States on maritime issues at key talks in Beijing next week because of Chinese concerns over the increased U.S. military presence in the disputed South China Sea, a major state-run newspaper said on Tuesday. – Reuters
 
The growing number of private car drivers is at odds with the millions of residents who ride two- and three-wheeled electric cycles. The conflict has stirred emotions about inequality in urban China, pitting wealthier drivers against the blue-collar workers who need the electric bikes to make a living. – New York Times
 
China could be erecting "a Great Wall of self-isolation" with its increasingly provocative moves against its neighbors, Defense Secretary Ash Carter said Friday. – Associated Press
 
American ships and fighter jets maneuvering across the South China Sea and the Sea of Japan represent the "new normal" in U.S.-Pacific relations despite rising tensions with China and Moscow. – Associated Press
 
Debating the Coats bill is one of several steps Congress is taking to force President Obama and future administrations to reshape military-to-military relations with Taiwan as an open partner while an increasingly aggressive China is building up forces along the Taiwan Strait and is attempting to seize the international South China Sea and dominate its neighbors. – Washington Times
 
For more than two decades, Australia has danced a delicate two-step with the United States and its longtime Pacific allies on one hand and a not-so-friendly but big-spending China on the other. It was a split-the-difference approach that raised eyebrows — and blood pressures — from Washington to Tokyo and Seoul to Manila, where the view of Beijing’s designs on the region is colored far more in terms of potential threats than trade-related partnerships. – Washington Times
 
Lanzhou New Area, in Gansu province, embodies China’s twin dreams of catapulting its poorer western regions into the economic mainstream through an orgy of infrastructure spending and cementing its place at the heart of Asia through a revival of the ancient Silk Road. – Washington Post
 
Joseph A. Bosco writes: But China's leaders may finally begin to get the message that its aggressive actions in the South and East China Seas and across the Taiwan Strait are bringing about the very counter-China groupings among countries in the region that it fears. To reverse the maxim that China scholars used to bandy about to call for restraint in dealing with China: if you treat your neighbors and their friends as adversaries, you will get adversaries. – National Interest
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egyptian crime, social mobility & Inflation

5/30/2016

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“Egypt’s next national security threat: all the single ladies?” (Rami Galal, Al-Monitor)

“Col. Ashraf Gamal, a member of the National Security Council, told Al-Monitor in this regard, ‘There is a phenomenon that has become an issue of national security, insofar as it constitutes a threat to the institution and stability of the Egyptian family, owing to the negative psychological effects it has on the family. Among its other negative ramifications for national security are the proliferation of crimes of rape and sexual harassment, which stem from sexual frustration or [people] entering into illicit [sexual] relations. As a result of this, another phenomenon -- no less dangerous -- has arisen: Egypt’s “street children.” [And another consequence has been] the spread of theft in order to raise the necessary dowry payments required for marriage….The current National Security Council has a new, unconventional vision. We believe that the concept of national security must be more broadly conceived than just what affects the army, the interior or homeland security. Our broader notion of national security is to not concentrate solely on the center and neglect the periphery that feeds the center. Everything -- both small and large -- that affects Egyptian society is the concern of national security. Our role will not be limited to the issues of spinsterism; rather, we have plans for the return of values and morals to Egyptian society. One might say, “What business are values and morals of yours? You’re not responsible for society.” But to them I would say that if old Egyptian values and morals returned, the crime rate would decline. For example, the Egyptian woman used to wear whatever clothes she liked -- whether they were short or provocative -- without it resulting in sexual harassment. And that was because society was once blessed with values that -- among other things -- stipulated that a man would never accost women in the street.’”
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balkans:  contested again between christianity & Islam

5/26/2016

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Center for Islamic Pluralism CIP
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tunisia:  turning away from islamism 

5/24/2016

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The leader of Tunisia’s main Islamic political party was re-elected on Monday, winning endorsement for his effort to move the party away from its Islamist roots and stay in tune with the country’s five-year-old democratic revolution. – New York Times
Tunisia’s Ennahda party re-elected Rachid Ghannouchi as the head of the party at a party congress; Ghannouchi’s re-election is a validation of his policy of separating the party’s religious and political elements.
“How Tunisia’s Ennahda party turned from its Islamist roots” (Rory McCarthy, Monkey Cage)

“A better way to think of Ennahda’s shift in strategy is to ask what lessons the movement drew from its own history. Most important is the way the movement has learned from its experience in the elections of April 1989, during a brief moment of political opening at the start of the Ben Ali regime. Despite running only as independents in a rigged election, Ennahda candidates won about 15 percent of the vote nationwide, and up to 30 percent in some cities, including Tunis, Sousse, Monastir and Bizerte. But they won no seats in parliament, and instead, an intense confrontation developed between the movement and the regime, with mass street demonstrations and a widespread campaign of arrests. This led to a severe repression and the dismantling of the movement. In jail and in exile, the movement went through a process of evaluation. It admitted that its political ambition had overwhelmed its original cultural and social Islamising project. It accepted that it had failed to build alliances with other opposition parties and that occasional acts of violence had undermined its position. Different trends learned different lessons.”
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foreign policy & u.s. leadership:  fpi study

5/23/2016

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FPI:  Foreign Policy Initiative Study
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kosovo:  hotbed of islam for saudi, persian proxy

5/23/2016

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The New York Times takes a deep look at Kosovo's transformation into a hotbed of support for the Islamic State, encouraged in large part by Saudi-funded proselytization. The tiny European country has now produced an estimated 314 foreign fighters for the Islamic State, a figure which includes two suicide bombers. At the end of the Kosovo War, Islam in Kosovo had a largely moderate character, but officials say Saudi funding, and preachers that came in after the end of the conflict have sowed a message of intolerance and incitement to violence that has made the Islamic State's message a disturbingly popular one.
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obama goes to vietnam: aim contain beijing

5/23/2016

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NYT:  Asian nations skeptical of U.S. regional commitment
FPI (Foreign Policy Initiative):  U.S. seeks Asian rebalance beginning w/ Vietnam
Commentary Magazine:  Max Boot
What Obama fails to understand about Communism & Vietnam:  linking liberty to prosperity
President Obama has touched down in Vietnam. China is sure to be high on the agenda as Obama meets with the Vietnamese Communist Party general secretary Nguyen Phu Trong and Prime Minister Nguyễn Xuân Phúc. Like many of China's neighbors, Vietnam has clashed with Beijing over disputed maritime territories and is looking for American diplomatic support for its maritime claims.

China isn't the only country using its fishermen as the tip of the spear in maritime territorial policy. CNN reports that Vietnam is now encouraging its fishermen to trawl the waters near the Paracel Islands, claimed by both China and Vietnam, in order to maintain the country's assertions of ownership. Officials say Chinese fishermen attacked 17 Vietnamese vessels trying to fish in the area last year. China has trained, armed, and directed its fishermen, organizing them into militias to call dibs on contested waters and report on foreign ships.
NYT:  w/ Video
The United States is rescinding a decades-old ban on sales of lethal military equipment to Vietnam, President Obama announced at a news conference in Hanoi on Monday, ending one of the last legal vestiges of the Vietnam War. – New York Times
 
These two countries, bedeviled by decades of misunderstandings, violence and wariness, now have the chance to create a partnership that seemed unlikely even three years ago. – New York Times
 
By the time President Obama arrives here Sunday night, all-day voting in tightly controlled elections for members of the rubber-stamp Parliament will have just finished. In this Communist-ruled nation, the names that were not allowed to appear on the ballots tell more of a story than the 870 scrupulously vetted candidates permitted to compete for 500 seats. – New York Times
 
Wolverine Worldwide exemplifies a sharp shift among American footwear and garment producers away from China toward an emerging manufacturing hot spot: Vietnam. – Washington Post
 
The US is in talks with Vietnam to position military equipment in the South-east Asian country for the first time since the end of the war just over four decades ago, according to US officials. – Financial Times
 
Vietnam granted early release from prison to a Catholic priest who is one of its most prominent dissidents, a move widely seen as a goodwill gesture before President Barack Obama arrives on an official visit late Sunday night. – Associated Press
 
A BBC correspondent in Vietnam for U.S. President Barack Obama's visit to the country said on Monday he had been ordered by the Vietnamese authorities to stop reporting apparently because they suspected he had met one of the government's sharpest critics - Reuters
 
Richard Fontaine writes: At a moment of constrained defense budgets, rising Chinese assertiveness, and questions about the future trajectory of U.S. foreign policy, locking in the transformation of Vietnam from enemy to partner would say a great deal about American priorities. President Obama's visit represents the chance to begin writing that new chapter. - CNN
China warned President Obama on Tuesday not to spark a fire in Asia after he announced the lifting of a long-standing embargo on lethal arms sales to Vietnam. – Washington Post
 
He helped the United States fight a war in this country more than four decades ago. But Secretary of State John F. Kerry got a warm welcome Monday from Vietnamese residents during an unannounced public appearance in downtown Hanoi. – Washington Post’s Post Partisan
 
Lifting the U.S. arms embargo for Vietnam will lead to warmer ties between the two countries’ militaries, including maritime cooperation in the contested South China Sea, U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter said Monday. But Carter and President Barack Obama, who is visiting Vietnam, insisted the move was not directed at China, which is locked in a dispute with Hanoi and other neighbors over ownership of islands throughout the sea. – Defense One
 
With President Obama’s landmark announcement of the lifting of a half-century ban on lethal weapons sales to Vietnam, the stage is set for even deeper ties with America’s one-time adversary — and more port visits for sailors. – Military Times
 
President Barack Obama wanted to travel to Vietnam having already secured the Trans Pacific Partnership, the massive trade deal covering 40 percent of the global economy that over a decade would add $36 billion, or 11 percent, to Hanoi’s gross domestic product. But it doesn’t look like Obama will be able to deliver the deal before he leaves office. – Foreign Policy’s The Cable
 
Editorial: Barack Obama announced the lifting of the U.S. arms embargo on Vietnam on his visit to Hanoi on Monday, marking an important milestone in America’s rapprochement with its old adversary and its broader pivot to Asia. The decision also sends an unmistakable signal to Beijing’s leaders that their efforts to bully its neighbors have backfired. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
FPI Senior Policy Analyst Evan Moore writes: President Obama announced that the United States will lift its decades-old ban on arms sales to Vietnam…Though a closer strategic partnership with Vietnam will offer advantages, it will also test Washington’s ability to promote security in the region without weakening our commitment to human rights and democracy.  – Foreign Policy Initiative
 
Max Boot writes: The only way to create a truly close and long-lasting alliance between the U.S. and Vietnam — something that is in both parties’ interests — is for Vietnam to gradually become a freer and less despotic place. The U.S. should use its leverage to gently nudge Vietnam in that direction. – Commentary
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mcMaster on russian superiority

5/20/2016

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Speaking recently at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C., McMaster said that the two-year-old conflict had revealed that the Russians have superior artillery firepower, better combat vehicles, and have learned sophisticated use of UAVs for tactical effect. Should U.S. forces find themselves in a  land war with Russia, he said, they would be in for a rude, cold awakening…So how do you restore overmatch? The recipe that’s emerging from the battlefield of Ukraine, says McMaster, is more artillery and better artillery, a mix of old and new. – Defense One
U.S. Missile Defense
In a report out this morning, CSBA scholars Bryan Clark and Mark Gunzinger argue that we don’t just need new technology and new tactics to confront the growing missile threats from China and Russia, though lasers, railguns, and hypervelocity projectiles are all useful. We need a different missile defense mindset than what we have today, one that trusts computers to shoot down incoming weapons at literally the last minute. – Breaking Defense
 
This week the Arleigh-Burke Class guided-missile destroyer John Paul Jones participated in the test of software designed to find and track Medium Range Ballistic Missiles. – DOD Buzz
Putin's Signature Bombing
David Satter writes: [T]he mystery of who bombed the Russian apartment houses in 1999 has not been solved to this day. And to the extent that there is evidence as to the perpetrators, it points not to Chechen terrorists but to the Kremlin leadership and the FSB. – The American Interest
Peter Dickinson writes: Russia’s hybrid war tactics are rooted in the assumption that modern Europeans have no stomach for geopolitical confrontation and will always back down when faced with the prospect of having to pay a price for their principles. Ukrainians are already paying this price on a daily basis. Unless the rest of Europe is prepared to foot at least part of the bill, the outcome may well prove disastrous for the entire continent. – Atlantic Council
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egypt-air intellligence

5/20/2016

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Forensics AP:  While search teams have not yet found the flight recorder from EgyptAir Flight 804, investigators say debris being collected from the crash suggest the plane was brought down by an explosion. A senior Egyptian forensics expert told the Associated Press today that the theory is “the logical explanation.” At least 80 pieces of small debris have been recovered and brought to Cairo, including human remains. "There isn't even a whole body part, like an arm or a head," an official said. Families of the victims have provided DNA samples to identify the remains as they are recovered.
Forensics:  Human remains retrieved from the site where an Egyptian airliner crashed into the sea suggest that an explosion may have brought down the aircraft, Egyptian forensic officials told news agencies Tuesday. – Washington Post
Egyptian President Abdel Fatah al-Sissi said “all scenarios” are being considered in the investigation of the crash of Egyptian airliner into the Mediterranean Sea last week but warned the media against speculation it was brought down by a terrorist attack. – Washington Post
 
Almost 72 hours after the disappearance of EgyptAir Flight 804 raised concern that terrorists again may have struck commercial aviation, the absence of anyone taking responsibility has prompted questions about what transpired on the Airbus A320 aircraft. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
In an eerie coincidence, the EgyptAir jetliner that plunged into the Mediterranean on Thursday was once the target of political vandals who wrote in Arabic on its underside, “We will bring this plane down.” – New York Times
 
With a media blitz, the Islamic State has set its sights on Egypt's Sinai Peninsula as the next shot at expanding its empire and establishing a base from which to attack neighboring Israel. – Washington Times
AEI
Egypt Air: On Friday Egyptian naval vessels found body parts, airplane seats, and personal belongings in the Mediterranean Sea from the EgyptAir flight that disappeared on Thursday with at least 66 people on board. While authorities suspect that terrorism caused the plane’s disappearance, no group has stepped forward to take credit for bringing down the plane. At least six countries have joined the search for the wreckage.
An Egyptian jetliner carrying 66 people from Paris to Cairo abruptly swerved, vanished from radar and plunged into the Mediterranean early Thursday, shortly before it was scheduled to land. Egyptian officials issued conflicting information about whether wreckage had been found and suggested terrorism was a more likely cause than technical failure. – New York Times
 
Debris from an EgyptAir plane that went down with at least 66 people on board was found on Friday in the Mediterranean Sea, the Egyptian military said. – New York Times
 
This latest setback was such a shock to the nation that Egypt’s leaders abandoned their typical approach to crisis management: obfuscation. Instead, they offered what appeared to be a candid assessment, acknowledging that the disaster might well have been a result of terrorism. And that was even before there was hard evidence of terrorism. – New York Times
 
A bomb could have been detonated on board EgyptAir Flight 804, the plane carrying 66 people that went missing Thursday between Paris and Cairo, House Homeland Security Committee Chairman Michael McCaul told The Hill. – The Hill
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fixing u.s. foreign policy:  pdf - center for new american security (CNS)

5/17/2016

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CNS
Washington Free Beacon:  CNS Study on How ISIS, Syria IS NOT CONTAINABLE
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beijing's nuclear weapon technology

5/16/2016

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The Defense Department’s system for sending emergency messages to nuclear forces is made up of aging technology that runs on a 1970s-era computer system and uses 8-inch floppy disks. The Government Accountability Office (GAO) made the finding in a broad report highlighting the billions of dollars the government spends every year to maintain largely outdated information technology (IT). – The Hill
Stimson
WeaponSystems.Net
“The good news,” says Michael Krepon, co-editor of the new book, “is that China, India, and Pakistan won’t go overboard on [multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV)] like the United States and the Soviet Union. The bad news is that even limited deployments will further complicate the triangular nuclear competition in Asia.”
DoD Report to Congress on China's Geopolitical/Technological Advances PDF
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beijing:  damaged, yet standing

5/13/2016

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AEI:  China's Economic Numbers Nonsense
Seeking to calm escalating tensions in the South China Sea, top generals from China and the U.S. spoke by phone and said they were ready to work out an effective mechanism to prevent confrontation and maintain stability in the region – Associated Press
 
Michael O’Hanlon writes: The United States and China are likely to be jostling for position in the South China Sea for years. That is probably inevitable. It is also tolerable, if we keep our cool while also maintaining our resolve—and if we patiently look for an ultimate compromise on the issues that currently divide America and its regional friends from Beijing. Ironically, the strongman from Mindanao may help us along with this process. – Brookings Institution
For a few brief hours this week, China had its own answer to WikiLeaks: a mysterious Twitter account that posted the personal information of dozens of the country’s most prominent people, including billionaires and even the architect of the country’s Internet controls. – New York Times
 
Mr. El-Shahat has become an unusual example of foreign influence in Chinese propaganda officialdom, which in recent years has tried to tap Western expertise and techniques to improve the Communist Party’s image at home and burnish China’s standing abroad. – WSJ’s China Real Time
 
The European Parliament on Thursday may have dashed China’s hopes of winning “market economy” status, a potentially crushing blow to Beijing hopes after a 15-year wait. – Foreign Policy’s The Cable
 
Guam is within China’s military strike reach with new missiles and bomber aircraft capabilities that demonstrate China’s continued efforts to neutralize America’s ability to come to the aid of its allies and friends in the region, according to a May 10 report by the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC). – Defense News
 
On Monday one of the most infamous anniversaries in the history of Chinese Communist party rule will pass without official acknowledgment, despite bearing a hallmark that affects everything from party disciplinary proceedings to concerts. – Financial Times
 
Editorial: Indeed, if China wants to stave off a protectionist turn in the United States and Europe, getting its own house in order would be a good way to do it. The People’s Daily’s “authoritative” source seems to realize that. Does President Xi Jinping? – Washington Post
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the "reset" failed, obama sends missile shield to romania & poland:  reagan returns

5/11/2016

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Russia
Not to be outdone, Russia has responded to this news by announcing that it's at work on a 
new generation of missiles designed to slip through American defenses. Russia's Tassnews agency reports that Russia’s Strategic Missile Force chief Colonel General Sergey Karakayev had said the country will develop a new intercontinental ballistic missile with the U.S. missile shield in mind. Karakayev said the new missiles will evade any defenses with a "shorter acceleration phase" and "a hard-to-predict flight trajectory."
Dr. Seth Cropsky:  Missile Defense Policy
​
Seth Cropsey writes: Restoring proper funding to missile defense will not solve all of America’s strategic problems. However, the next president will be well advised to pay more attention both to details of the military budget and the overall state of our defenses.  Just as small steps in the wrong direction undermine good policy, small steps in the right direction reinforce it. – Real Clear Defense
Deputy Defense Secretary Bob Work has arrived in Romania for the activation of the United States' European missile defense shield, which goes liveon Thursday. The system is the culmination of a decade of work, and has been billed as a way to protect NATO from Iranian rockets. But Moscow, unsurprisingly, is unhappy that the new American technology has been placed so close its borders, claiming that Russia is the real target.

The system, based at a rural air base in Deveselu, Romania, is the first of two sites, with construction on a second site in Poland to commence later this week. Taken together, the two missile defense installations will give NATO a 24-hour early warning and defense system against Iranian missiles. “The system is not aimed against Russia," Robert Bell, a U.S. official, told reporters.
South China Sea
Air Force 
magazine drops that the U.S. Air Force A-10 Warthogs recently deployed to the Philippines have concluded their mission there after flying just four missions over international waters and carrying out two dozen training missions. During a visit to the Philippines in April, Defense Secretary Ash Carter announced that the Warthogs would hang around for a little while after exercising with Philippine forces. The mag also reports that the Air Force is planning follow up the hogs' visit with the arrival of an "advanced fighter jet," which may just be the F-22 Raptor. Washington recently reached a basing agreement for U.S. forces as the island nation grows wary of Chinese territorial claims in its backyard.

Playing the game. In response to the U.S. Navy’s USS William P. Lawrence passing near Fiery Cross Reef in the South China Sea on Tuesday, China’s Defense Ministry said it was Washington’s fault that it was deploying more military hardware to the disputed islands in the waterway. In a statement, the ministry said, “the provocative actions by American military ships and planes lay bare the U.S. designs to seek gain by creating chaos in the region and again testify to the total correctness and utter necessity of China's construction of defensive facilities on relevant islands.”

Beijing also promised to “increase the scope of sea and air patrols based on need, boost all categories of military capacity building, resolutely defend national sovereignty and security, and resolutely safeguard peace and stability in the South China Sea.”
The Washington Post’s David Ignatius talks with Director of National Intelligence James Clapper about his remaining days in office at the nation's top intelligence official. Among the revelations from Ignatius's chat: China may be planning to implement an air defense identification zone (ADIZ) over the South China Sea. China announced the creation of an ADIZ over the East China Sea in 2013, an implicit assertion of sovereignty over disputed maritime territory claimed by the People's Republic.
ManPads in Syria?
Weapons watchers have caught sight of various models of man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS) in Syria since the civil war began, from the ubiquitous Cold War vintage Russian SA-7 to the less often seen Chinese FN-6. Now the open source geeks at Bellingcat report that three MANPADS seen in a March video by Islamist rebel group Liwa al-Tawheed in Aleppo appear to be QW-1 or Misagh-1 missiles. The QW-1, made by China and used by Iran under the designation "Misagh-1," has made only brief appearances on the battlefield in Iraq, where it was used by Iranian-backed militias against U.S. forces during the American operation. A fighter from Liwa al-Tawheed contacted by Bellingcat said the missiles were captured from Assad regime forces.
The United States on Thursday will move a step closer to establishing a missile shield over Europe at a time when new threats are emerging that could curb its utility. – Stars and Stripes
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how to reform the u.s. state department

5/10/2016

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Hoover Institution
Hoover Institution:  How To Defeat The Islamic State
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understanding china's strategic culture

5/10/2016

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Hoover Institution:  Understanding China's Strategic Culture
China 'Dissed' the Queen: Why?  Project Syndicate
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total intelligence:  defense budget, war & reluctant white house

5/10/2016

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Foreign Policy Initiative
FPI:  U.S. Engagement w/ Iran, Total Intelligence Report
Washington Post Editorial:  U.S. Engagement w/ Iran Stuart Levey, Elliott Abrams, and Reuel Gerecht 
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Obama gets putin's attention

5/9/2016

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U.S. Abrams Tanks in Georgia for Independence Day
For the first time ever, the U.S. Army has sent Abrams tanks to take part in an exercise in Georgia, on the Black Sea coast. The tanks will take part in an annual exercise on Russia’s southern flank, where Moscow fought a war in 2008. About 1,300 troops from Georgia, the U.K., and the United States will take part in the exercises that kicked off on May 11. They’ll wrap up on the 26th -- Georgia’s Independence Day -- which we have to admit is a nice touch. The American contingent of 650 troops more than doubles last year’s exercise, which included about 300 U.S. soldiers.

In response, the Russian foreign ministry has accused NATO of trying to destabilize the Caucasus region. “We view this consistent 'development' of Georgian territory by NATO soldiers as a provocative move, aiming to deliberately destabilize the military-political situation in the Caucasus region,” the ministry said in a statement.
The Guardian snagged a lengthy interview with Tim and Alex Foley, the sons of two Russian spies arrested as part of an illegals network in the U.S. in 2010. The two say they had no idea that their parents, Donald Heathfield and Tracey Foley, were living a lie on behalf of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service with identities stolen from two Canadians who had died years ago.  Tim and Alex, now living in Asia and Europe, are petitioning Canada to return their citizenship, saying they're innocent of the crimes committed by their parents.

Russia is mighty displeased at NATO's plans for a joint exercise with Georgia's military, calling it a "provocative move" that will destabilize the region according to Agence France Presse. The exercise, dubbed Noble Partner, kicks off at the Vaziani base in Georgia on Wednesday and will include U.S. and British forces. Russia is wary of Tbilisi growing closer to NATO following its 2008 war with Georgia which saw Russian forces occupy the country's separatist province of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Putin Opens Up New Base in Syria
Syria's opposition says Russia has created a new military base in the ancient city of Palmyra after a combined Syrian-Russian offensive ousted the Islamic State from the city in late March. The Jerusalem Post reports that the Syrian Revolution Coordinator group posted that Russia now has a base "in the archeological compound of the city." Russia has put Palmyra front and center in its messaging on Syria, sending the Mariinskiy Theatre Orchestra to play a concert in the amphitheater the Islamic State used to stage
Russian Disinformation Campaigns
Project Syndicate:  Russian Economy
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early reform movement:  europe & Islamism

5/7/2016

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AEI
Hoover Institution:  European History to Islamism
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The Islamic State & chemical weapons

5/4/2016

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The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) suspects that Islamic State is making its own chemical weapons. Agence France Presse carried comments by OPCW chief Ahmet Uzumcu saying his organization doesn't have conclusive proof but it nonetheless believes that the jihadist organization may have used sulphur mustard that it developed on its own. The Islamic State has been accused of carrying out chemical weapons attacks in both Syria and Iraq. The Assad regime has accused the group of using chemical weapons against Syrian Arab Army troops in Deir Ezzor as recently as April.
Syria
Syrian government forces and their allies clashed with insurgents near Aleppo on Monday and warplanes launched more raids around a strategic town Islamist rebels seized last week, a monitoring group said. - Reuters
 
Turkish artillery has fired at the Islamic State group across the border in Syria, killing 55 militants and destroying three rocket launchers and three vehicles, the state-run Anadolu Agency reported on Sunday. – Associated Press
 
More than a dozen members of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards were killed this week during an attack by militants in northern Syria in what shows Tehran's deep involvement in the Syrian civil war. – Associated Press
After months of unexpectedly swift advances, the U.S.-led war against the Islamic State is running into hurdles on and off the battlefield that call into question whether the pace of recent gains can be sustained. – Washington Post
 
As the military and political battle against the Islamic State escalates, Muslim imams and scholars in the West are fighting on another front — through theology. – New York Times
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thomas donnelly at Hoover:  U.s. military readiness

5/3/2016

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Hoover Institution
AEI:  Readiness Tracker
AEI:  Readiness Tracker II
Hoover Institution:  Strategika
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india, sexual homicide & Islam

5/3/2016

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“An Indian teen was raped by her father. Village elders had her whipped,” by Annie Gowen (Post)
Three detained after student “raped and murdered” in Kerela

Police in the city of Perumbavoor, near Kochi in Kerela state, detained three men on Tuesday, as a part of the investigation of the rape and murder of a Dalit student, whose body was found mutilated in her home on Friday (NYT, Indian Express) . The autopsy on the 30-year-old victim revealed she had been tortured and sexually penetrated before being murdered. The Dalit community is considered the lowest caste in India's centuries-old social hierarchy. Women’s groups in Kerela have called for protests in response to this case. There is a growing concern in India over the increasing sexual violence against women. Government data shows that there were 337,922 reports of violence against women, including rape, molestation, abduction and cruelty in 2014, a rise of 9% on the previous year's figures. In 2012 the fatal rape of a student in Delhi led to protests and the introduction of tougher anti-rape laws, however incidents of sexual violence against women continue to be increasingly reported across the country.
“The Time Has Come for a ‘Sexual Spring’ in the Arab World” (Kacem El Ghazzali, Huffington Post)

“When we say that nowadays to call for sexual freedom in Arab and Muslim societies is more dangerous than the demand to topple monarchies or dictatorial regimes, we are not playing with metaphor or attempting to gain sympathy. We are stating a bitter and painful fact of the reality in which we are living. In Arab and Muslim milieus, sex is considered a means and not an end, hedged by many prickly restrictions that make it an objectionable matter and synonymous with sin. Its function within marriage is confined to procreation and nothing else, and all sexual activity outside the institution of marriage is banned legally and rejected socially. Innocent children born out of wedlock are socially rejected and considered foundlings. This situation cannot be said to be characteristic of Arab societies only, but we experience these miseries in far darker and more intense ways than in other countries.”
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beijing hits back

5/2/2016

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Chinese officials took a rhetorical hard line this week calling U.S. military actions in the South China Sea the “greatest threat” to stability in the region and vowed to increase its own military presence in the region, according to a Wednesday statement from the Chinese military. – USNI News
 
Facebook users have emerged as a target of Thailand’s ruling junta as it clamps down on online criticism in an effort to tighten its grip on power – Financial Times
 
Vietnam would welcome the United States "accelerating" the lifting of a lethal arms embargo, which would reflect trust between the two countries and recognition of its needs to defend itself, its foreign ministry said on Thursday. - Reuters
 
Editorial: It nonetheless appears that the already complicated U.S. mission of mustering counterweights in East Asia sufficient to deter China’s overreaching is about to get still more difficult. Responsible people in both countries can only hope that Mr. Duterte is not soon matched with an American counterpart. – Washington Post
O]n Tuesday, Queen Elizabeth II, clad in bright pink, had a frank exchange about China on her palace lawn with a Metropolitan Police commander, Lucy D’Orsi. They spoke of conflicts that unfolded in London in October when President Xi Jinping of China and his entourage made a state visit to Britain, and at one point, the queen referred to the visiting officials as “very rude.” – NYT’s Sinosphere
 
China is building up intermediate-range ballistic and cruise missiles that pose a growing threat to Guam, the strategic Pacific island that is central to the U.S. military pivot to Asia, according to a congressional report made public Tuesday. – Washington Free Beacon
 
Some Chinese state-owned entities, backed by the key government agency that oversees major state industrial companies, have adopted a controversial defense when they face U.S. lawsuits: You can't touch us because we enjoy sovereign immunity. - Reuters
 
Michael Pettis writes: The past three years have been terrible for international trade. China isn’t the only major economy suffering from weak domestic demand, but it has behaved far more responsibly than Europe and Japan, which have forced their adjustment costs onto the rest of the world. Maintaining the yuan’s value has been good for both China and the world. It wouldn’t help for Beijing to change strategy. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
What's Wrong With Beijing's Nuclear Submarines
The Center for Strategic and International Studies ChinaPower site takes a look at China's Jin­-class nuclear ballistic missile submarines and finds them wanting on a number of fronts. The sub's missile payload, the JL-2 submarine-launched ballistic missile, is lacking in range, meaning that Jin subs have to make it relatively close to their targets in order to carry out successful strikes. That's especially tricky as U.S. anti-submarine warfare kits can reportedly find -- and potentially help destroy -- Jin-class subs underwater.
By physically linking itself more tightly with Europe, the Middle East and Central Asia, China is aiming to create new markets as growth slows at home while deepening Beijing's influence across Asia and as far away as the Middle East and Europe. The effort is at the center of Xi's signature political and economic policy initiative, called the Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st Century Maritime Silk Road. –Los Angeles Times
The Chinese government on Thursday denied a Navy flotilla access to the port in Hong Kong, Pentagon officials said Friday, the latest sign of escalating tension between the United States and China. – New York Times
 
American leaders and interest groups have sharply criticized a new law in China aimed at controlling and limiting the work of foreign nongovernmental organizations in the country, saying it will lead to the deterioration of ties between the Chinese and people from abroad. – New York Times
China has successfully completed a seventh flight test of its new hypersonic glide vehicle last week in its northern central Shanxi province, according to an article on People’s Daily Online. – Defense Tech
 
Editorial: Even before adopting the law, China did not hesitate to quash those groups it suspected of supporting democracy, free speech and human rights. But now President Xi Jinping is going further than his predecessors in the post-Mao era. He is systematically attempting to strengthen the machinery of the Chinese state and impose top-down controls on civil society. – Washington Post
 
Michael Auslin writes: The West’s assumption that it constantly must try for deeper engagement with Chinese society and leaders needs to be rethought. Further efforts may wind up being counterproductive, leading to more repression, and hurting the very people NGOs hope to help. After two decades of globalization, a regime whose trust in the world remains so low will not be a willing partner in most of the efforts about which the liberal world cares. Sometimes, the only thing to do is watch and wait. - Forbes
Project Syndicate:  Playing by the rules in Asia
Admiral Unsettles White House:  South China Sea
Admiral Harris makes no apologies for his candor, which has unsettled a more cautious White House. As China builds militarily fortified islands in the South China Sea, a strategic waterway long dominated by the United States, it is his job, he says, to talk to Congress, the American public and allies abroad about the threat. – New York Times
 
A top U.S. naval official said China’s navy is expected to join military exercises near Hawaii, playing down Beijing’s refusal last month to let a U.S. aircraft carrier dock in Hong Kong. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
A teenage activist who became the face of the so-called umbrella protests in Hong Kong was tried Friday along with three others for their roles in a protest against Beijing’s rule in this Chinese territory of more than 7 million people. – Los Angeles Times
 
China is doubling down on efforts to keep unprofitable factories afloat despite for years pledging to curb excess capacity, adding to a glut of basic materials flooding the global economy. – Wall Street Journal
 
A recent concert featuring Maoist “red songs,” staged in China’s most high-profile political venue just weeks ahead of the Cultural Revolution’s 50th anniversary, has sparked a backlash over its perceived memorialization of the decadelong mass upheaval unleashed by Mao Zedong. – WSJ’s China Real Time
Southeast Asia:  Containing Beijing
The mother of a pro-democracy activist faces up to 15 years in prison after acknowledging that she had received a private message on Facebook that the police say insulted Thailand’s monarchy. – New York Times
 
Myanmar recognizes 135 ethnic groups within its borders. But the people who constitute No. 136? They are the people-who-must-not-be-named. Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, the leader of Myanmar’s first democratically elected government since 1962, embraced that view last week when she advised the United States ambassador against using the term “Rohingya” to describe the persecuted Muslim population that has lived in Myanmar for generations. – New York Times
 
Plans by the Malaysian government to shut down the troubled state fund at the heart of a multinational investigation could saddle the government with billions of dollars in debt and may be a first step toward a government bailout, opposition leaders said. – New York Times
 
A Philippine mayor whose recipe for national revival involves a harsh crackdown on criminality took a commanding lead in presidential elections here on Monday. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
A top U.S. envoy began a two-day trip to Vietnam on Monday to gauge its progress in human rights, two weeks ahead of a visit by President Barack Obama in what will be the first by a U.S. leader in a decade. - Reuters
 
Editorial: President Xi Jinping already broke a promise he made to Mr. Obama not to militarize islets his regime has been building up in two parts of the South China Sea. Now Beijing appears to be contemplating building a base on a contested shoal just 150 miles from Subic Bay in the Philippines. A failure by the administration to prevent this audacious step could unravel much of what it has done to bolster U.S. influence in the region. – Washington Post
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Ben-Gurion, golda meir, Began, Rabin etc. . Israeli statesman needed. . . 

5/2/2016

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“Developing Long-Term Socioeconomic Strategy in Israel: Institutions, Processes, and Supporting Information” (Howard J. Shatz, Steven W. Popper, Sami Friedrich, Shmuel Abramzon, Anat Brodsky, Roni Harel, Ofir Cohen, Rand Corporation)

“Israel’s macroeconomic performance since the mid-1980s has been admirable. Growth of gross domestic product and high-technology exports, for example, has been higher than in the countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) as a group and in the world as a whole. Even with this growth, inflation in Israel has generally run lower than in the OECD and the world since 2000. However, Israel faces a variety of economic and social challenges, including rising costs of living, differential ability across the population to participate in and benefit from the growth in the economy, and the public’s questions about the government’s role and its ability to play that role. Faced with more-immediate, major existential challenges throughout Israel’s history, the government has not routinely developed and successfully implemented strategic responses to socioeconomic problems that demand longer-term, coordinated policy action. Effective means to respond to such longer-term challenges may require a more systematic approach to policymaking by the government.”
Middle East Forum
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islamic state moves to libya

5/1/2016

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MEF
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countering north korea:  total intelligence

5/1/2016

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FPI:  Total Intelligence 
U.S. Policy Tested 
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