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EMERGING THREAT ASSESSMENT
GLOBAL STRIKE MEDIA.COM 
NORTH AMERICA 

HOW THE ISLAMIC STATE BEHAVES AFTER THE CALIPHATE & NEW ORDER EMERGING FOR ISLAMIC CIVILIZATION?

5/31/2019

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A Glimpse into the Islamic State’s External Operations, Post-Caliphate 
by Sam Heller
Battleground or Bridge-Builder? Iraq and the New Regional Order in the Middle East 
by Ramon Blecua
Caliphate, interrupted
The defeat of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria was neither final nor decisive, and policymakers should heed the War on Terror’s lessons to ensure the West doesn’t squander this advantage and enable ISIS, or its copycats and successor groups, to rally.
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MEXICO:  THE SLOW SUICIDE

5/21/2019

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Andrés Manuel López Obrador shifts Mexico inward 
Andrés Martínez-Fernández | AEIdeas
Mexico Under López Obrador: Six Years of Solitude, or Flexing Its Muscle at Sea? by Richard Miles
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GREGORY COPLEY TACKLES BREXIT AFTER MAY IMPLODES

5/16/2019

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Editorial: To be sure, she was not wrong in the first place to seek compromise. But she dithered early on, was gravely weakened by a calamitous general election (one she never should have called), and consented to terms – including the notorious Northern Irish “backstop” – that made compromise in the House of Commons all but impossible. It hasn’t helped that both main parties are split on Europe, with leaders more interested in seizing political advantage than in advancing the country’s interests. – Bloomberg
​With May Leaving, The Hard Part Of Brexit Begins By STEPHEN MacLEAN, Special to the Sun | May 26, 2019
https://www.nysun.com/foreign/with-mrs-may-out-the-hard-part-of-brexit-begins/90706/
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CHINA PROLIFERATES NUKES, HERE'S THE PROOF & SOURCES OF POLITICAL STRESS IN CHINA

5/13/2019

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Sources of Political Stress in China
 by Juliette Genevaz
RUSSIA SEEKS TO SELL CHINA NUCLEAR REACTORS
China's Great Nuclear Wall
By Aaron Kliegman, The Washington Free Beacon: "Beijing's opaque approach to arms control obscures the growing threat of its nuclear arsenal."
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how to hurt mother russia

5/9/2019

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Confronting the Russian challenge: A new approach for the US 
Frederick W. Kagan, Nataliya Bugayova, and Jennifer Cafarella | Institute for the Study of War 
Ways the United States Could Overextend and Unbalance Russia
Despite its vulnerabilities and anxieties, Russia remains a formidable opponent in a few key domains. What non-violent, cost-imposing measures could the United States pursue to stress Russia's economy, its military, and the regime's political standing at home and abroad? 
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Time for Trump To Craft a Policy On Russ Regime
By BENNY AVNI, Special to the Sun | May 10, 2019
https://www.nysun.com/foreign/time-for-trump-to-craft-a-policy-on-russ-regime/90679/
Secretary of State Pompeo will meet his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, next week. They will have a lot to discuss. Endlessly obsessed with Russia's interference in the last election, one half of Washington -- the Democrats -- all but ignore Russia's current nefarious deeds around the globe.
When Iran tried to blackmail Europe this week by threatening to undo the nuclear deal, it sent Foreign Minister Zarif to Moscow. That's where Tehran gets its strongest support. To undermine America's sale of F-35 fighter jets to Turkey, Putin offered Turkish strongman Recep Tayyip Erdogan a mega-deal for anti-aircraft S-400 missiles.
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Deterring Russian Aggression in the Baltic States
Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are vulnerable to low-level, hybrid, and full-scale attacks by Russian forces. Which unconventional strategies could they use to deter aggression and buy time for conventional military responses? And how can NATO allies help develop and fund these efforts? Read more »
Russia Seeks to Exploit Escalating Troubles in the Middle East
By Jane Doe, The Atlantic: "Russia tries to maintain a finger in every conflict in the Middle East, and President Vladimir Putin seeks to cultivate connections with various parties in multiple quarrels. Presently, however, the Kremlin’s access is being curtailed."
​
 https://www.voanews.com/a/tensions-grow-between-russia-iran-in-syria/4935188.html
●http://www.arabnews.com/node/1502781
●https://www.apnews.com/1a77fc00ca5f42afa806207474046d52
●https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2019/05/yemens-houthis-fundraise-for-hezbollah.php
● https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israel-strikes-syrian-anti-aircraft-target-and-a-spying-device-in-lebanon-1.7298589
●    https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-reveals-longest-most-significant-hezbollah-tunnel-yet-on-northern-border/
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A FAILED COUP IN VENEZUELA?  WHAT IS TO BE DONE

5/4/2019

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Jay Solomon writes: The Trump administration is becoming more concerned about Hezbollah as the Venezuela crisis drags on. The Iranian proxy militia has been active in Latin America for decades, often infiltrating Arab emigre populations to conduct operations. For example, investigators concluded that the group coordinated with Iran to bomb the Israeli embassy and Jewish community center in Buenos Aires in the early 1990s, with some senior Argentinian officials accused of complicity in the latter crime. – Washington Institute
Applying the Monroe Doctrine to Venezuela
​By Dr. Jiri Valenta, May 16, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The Monroe Doctrine, first articulated in 1823 by President James Monroe, was designed to protect the Americas from foreign threat and intervention. The Doctrine has a renewed relevance in today’s Venezuela.
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US STRIKES THE AFRICAN HORN AGAIN & HOW NIGERIA REMAINS IN THE US-IRANIAN CROSSHAIRS

5/1/2019

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Burkina Faso: The New Land of Islamic Jihad and Christian Slaughter
by Raymond Ibrahim
in_africa_all_jihad_is_local_–_foreign_policy.pdf
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Burkina Faso: Foreign Minister Calls for CT Coalition in Sahel.  Burkina Faso’s foreign minister on Thursday called for the creation of an anti-terrorism coalition for Africa’s Sahel region, similar to the ones in Iraq and Afghanistan.  The region currently has the G5 Sahel Joint Force, comprised of troops from Burkina Faso, Chad, Mauritania, Mali, and Niger, but the force faces many delays and obstacles due to attacks and outdated equipment.  The foreign minister said that regional violence has been increasing, as seen with recent attacks on Christian churches and an attack on Niger’s troops.  VOA News
ASIA TIMES:  AL-QAEDA AFFILIATES GO WEST
"The U.S. is handing over the counter terrorism mission in West Africa to local partners. But to some those partners are worse than the terrorists".
https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2019/04/us-hits-islamic-state-in-northern-somalia.php
Shabaab official justifies attacks on civilians while preaching the sanctity of Muslim blood
In a new audio address, Shabaab's Abu ‘Abdurahman Mahad Warsame warns jihadists that they should avoid spilling the blood of innocent Muslims. However, he justifies the assassination of a Muslim cleric and the murder of civilians.
Efficacy of the French Military Intervention in the Northern Mali Conflict
By Greg Olsen, Divergent Options: "The French military intervention in the Northern Mali Conflict in 2013 (Operation Serval) was a military success and met the criteria for success established by civilian leadership, however, it did not alter the trajectory of conflict in the region."
Assessing the Impacts of a Potential U.S.-Iran War on Nigeria
By Fulan Nasrullah, CSAAP: "With US-Iranian confrontation seemingly spinning closer to all-out war, Nigeria’s current administration and the national security establishment, are worried about the potential fallout of a US-Iran war on national and regional stability and security."
  • Bloomberg’s Eli Lake: Mike Pompeo is needed in Sudan
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    Peering into crystal ball; future of war
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    salafi-jihadi-ecosystem-in-the-sahel.pdf
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    BEYOND COUNTER-TERRORISM
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    HOW THE SALIFI-JIHADI MOVEMENT IS WINNING
    beyond-counterterrorism.pdf
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    road-to-the-caliphate-onepager.pdf
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    HOW TO DEFEAT THE ISLAMIC STATE & AFFILIATES
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