EMERGING THREATS U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY

INDIA'S ISLAMIC TERROR GROWING FAST, WHILE INDIA KILLS KASHMIRI TERRORIST

5/4/2020

In one month, the US and Iraq will begin strategic dialogue that addresses the US’s future presence in Baghdad. In a RealClearDefense op-ed, Michael Rubin argues that despite President Trump’s frustrations with the expense of the US presence in Iraq, abandoning Baghdad will backfire for both Iraq and US strategic interests. Repeating the precipitous withdrawals in Iraq that Trump ordered in Syria and Afghanistan will empower Iran and undercut the most competent leadership team postwar Iraq has had. Read here.

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has been under stress for some time. What spells the end of the organization is more benign, yet widely disliked — taxes. Saudi Arabia’s decision to increase its value-added tax by 300 percent means there is now no chance for Gulf economic integration and policy coordination, notes Karen E. Young in an Al-Monitor op-ed. For the GCC, its efficacy and usefulness as an engine of collective growth and mutual interests is probably over. Learn more here.

Turkey’s Reccep Tayyip Erdoğan is an autocrat who seeks to monopolize power and change the principles on which Turkish society operates. Michael Rubin took to the National Interest to assess Ankara’s behavior. He notes that optimists hope that Erdoğan’s defeat in Istanbul last year signals that Turks can reclaim their country and that democracy can still check Erdoğan’s desire to rule for life. But the lesson Erdoğan appears to have taken is not that he must listen to the people, but rather, he must punish Istanbul and become more ruthless in weeding out political opposition. Finish here.

India: Top Kashmir Rebel Leader Killed. Indian soldiers killed Riyaz Naikoo the leader of the Kashmiri separatist group Hizbul Mujahideen. The operation took place in the Indian controlled part of southern Kashmir after the Indian Army received tips that the Naikoo was hiding out in the area. “He was trapped in a house and early today a gun battle took place during which he and his associate were killed,” said Kashmir region’s inspector general of police Vijay Kumar. The Indian government shut down the internet in Kashmir the following day to avoid large gatherings of protesters in support of Naikoo and the Kashmir separatist movement. Al Jazeera BBC The New York Times

We Ignore Tablighi Jamaat at Our Peril
by Abhinav Pandya and Sam Westrop
Sunday Guardian (India)
May 3, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/islamist-watch/60816/we-ignore-tablighi-jamaat-at-our-peril

Taliban suicide attack kills 5 Afghan civilians; condemns maternity clinic attack
(The Associated Press) A suicide bombing in Afghanistan’s eastern Paktia province on Thursday that looked to target a military compound but exploded before its destination killed five civilians and wounded at least 29 others, including civilians and military personnel, Afghan officials said.

US military support In Sahel: Allies at work
(Breaking Defense) A few months ago Defense Secretary Mark Esper announced a broad review to recalibrate the overall US military posture overseas and align spending as best as possible with the National Defense Strategy priorities – forces to compete with Russia and China.

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RUSSIA, CHINA PROLIFERATE TO NORTH KOREA'S HEREDITARY DYNASTY & TURKEY'S NEW NIGHTMARE; PAKISTAN SHIFTS ALLIANCES

5/2/2020

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Report: Child soldiers deployed to Libya by Turkish-backed Syrian National Army
An exclusive report, citing sources on the ground in Syria and Libya, says Syrian teenagers are being sent to Libya to take part in the civil war there.

Putin is Betting on a Losing Horse (As In Iran)
By Alireza Nader, The National Interest: "The Russian-Iranian alliance, a defining feature of power politics in the Middle East, is experiencing strains that should be exploited by the Trump administration."

U.S., ASIA:
Will Vietnam Lease Cam Ranh Bay to the U.S.?
By Carl Thayer, The Diplomat: "Rumors are circulating that Vietnam is considering leasing Cam Ranh Bay or some of its islands in the South China Sea to the United States on a long-term basis as a supply base and/or stop over point as a counter to recent aggressiveness in the South China Sea."

Trump Should Not Fall for Erdogan’s S-400 Gambit
By Aykan Erdemir & Luc Sasseville, War on the Rocks: "On April 20, Turkey made public its decision to postpone the planned April activation of the S-400 air defense system it received from Russia last July, citing delays related to the COVID-19 outbreak. Erdogan’s latest move results from his growing desperation to secure Western financing amid a pandemic-induced economic crisis, and is part of a broader charm offensive to convince Trump to grant Ankara a financial lifeline in the form of a swap deal with the U.S. Federal Reserve."

An internal report presented by China's Ministry of State Security warned that global anti-China sentiment is at its highest since the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown.

The more we learn about the origins of the coronavirus, the more compelling the case against China grows. In an op-ed for the Hoover Institution, John Yoo and Robert J. Delahunty argue the world must create incentives for China that will force it to improve its behavior. That may well demand harsh measures that will force China to experience the full costs of its recklessness, but without such incentives, China may inflict this kind of tragedy on the world again. Read it here.

It’s time to be more strategic about trade with China. In an American Interest op-ed, Gary Schmitt and Craig Kennedy argue that although China is indeed a bad actor, it is also a global economic power from whom we cannot simply file for divorce. That said, Washington should develop a mechanism for ensuring that the US is not dependent on strategic goods “made in China.” What is needed is a Committee on Foreign Imports to the United States (CFIUS) — a CFIUS 2.0 Continue here.

A Lowy Institute scholar recently argued that lifting sanctions on Iran could both ease tensions in the Middle East and win favor among Iranians. But he is wrong on both counts, argues Michael Rubin in an op-ed for The Australian. The greatest reason sanctions relief does not help Iranians is Khatam al-Anbiya, the economic wing of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that controls almost 40 percent of Iran’s economy. Simply put, Iran has ample resources to better the lives of its citizenry. To lift sanctions, however, would incentivize not only Iran but also every other dictatorship to point a gun at the heads of their citizenry and demand cash from the West. Continue here.

A political battle is raging in Iraq over the selection of a new prime minister. In a RealClearWorld op-ed, Kenneth Pollack assesses the appointment of Mustafa al-Kadhimi, an Iraqi nationalist selected with the task of forming a government, and concludes that if there were ever a moment to build a strong independent Iraq, the time is now. Mustafa Kadhimi may be the last, best hope to begin moving Iraq in a better direction. Shouldn’t we help him help us? Read here.

After having lied about Turkey’s immunity to the coronavirus crisis in its initial weeks, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his advisers now seek to deflect blame and attention elsewhere. While some US diplomats have drunk Erdoğan’s Kool-Aid, Erdoğan’s decision to respond to the crisis by furthering his crackdown shows that the problem is the Turkish leader, not us, argues Michael Rubin in a Washington Examiner op-ed. The US government should take no action that endorses, embraces, or enables Erdoğan’s continued leadership in Turkey. Read more here.

Iran's Satraps in Lebanon Face Crisis by Jonathan Spyer
The Jerusalem Post
April 30, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/60811/lebanons-iranian-implanted-deep-state-out-of-options

Hereditary dictatorships rarely last past three generations, writes Oriana Skylar Mastro, and collapse may be in the cards for North Korea.
READ MORE

China has no reason to make a deal on nuclear weapons
Hal Brands | Bloomberg Opinion

Intel: US Syria envoy says Turkey must put pressure on Idlib militants
Turkey should keep up the pressure on the hard-line Islamist group in control of Syria’s embattled Idlib province, the US special envoy for Syria said today.

Extremist Syrian rebel group tests Turkey's limits in Idlib
Jihadi forces resisting the reopening of the key M4 highway in Idlib are squeezed between Turkey’s amity and military might, but Turkey itself is not without dilemmas.

Intel: US doubles down on Turkey S-400 sanctions threats
The Donald Trump administration has doubled down on threats to sanction Turkey should it activate the Russian S-400 missile defense system.

Facing the probability that Russia and China are set to sell conventional arms to Iran this October, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is preparing a legal argument to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to extend the arms embargo stipulated in UN Resolution 2231. While President Donald Trump withdrew from the political aspect of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the US remains a legal participant in the latter resolution. However, the Trump administration’s approach prioritizes short-term gains and sacrifices long-term returns in the US’s ability to work in the UNSC. AEI’s Gary Schmitt argues that extending the arms embargo on Iran is a case of high-stakes poker. The bet here is that our European allies will reluctantly fold in favor of an extension, fearing Secretary Pompeo will go “all in” with a snapback of sanctions.

Since the US unilaterally pulled out of the JCPOA in 2018, Iran has violated the deal’s restrictions: increasing its stockpile of enriched uranium, putting it in reach of producing a nuclear weapon; using aid money to finance proxy-terror operations in Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen; and continuing funding for a Revolutionary Guards–dominated economy that fuels corruption and oppression of Iranians. Last week, Iran launched its first military satellite into orbit, marking a military program that foreshadows its development of intercontinental ballistic missiles. The October deadline will be a fight with great implications, but how much influence is the US able to wield? Can Iran really afford to spend lavishly on weapons while still calling for relief funds to weather the pandemic?

Hal Brands argues that as US-China tensions rise, the cuts to defense spending put American defense strategy at risk. A policy of confrontation can invite disaster if undertaken without an adequate military shield. It would be ironic if the coronavirus was what finally convinced many Americans to take the challenge from China seriously — but left the nation too weak to do much about it. Read more here.

Pakistanis may soon die en masse for China’s interests, and the Pakistani government may allow it to happen. At issue is the nature of how Pakistan’s leaders have shifted their alliance partners from the United States to China. Michael Rubin took to The National Interest to argue that Pakistanis will quickly realize what a devil’s bargain their country has made. Pakistanis may recognize that China seeks not a partner, but a colonial vassal, the deaths of whose citizens it sees as wholly irrelevant. Read it here.

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EMERGING THREAT ASSESSMENT
GLOBAL STRIKE MEDIA.COM
NORTH AMERICA

INDIA'S ISLAMIC TERROR GROWING FAST, WHILE INDIA KILLS KASHMIRI TERRORIST

RUSSIA, CHINA PROLIFERATE TO NORTH KOREA'S HEREDITARY DYNASTY & TURKEY'S NEW NIGHTMARE; PAKISTAN SHIFTS ALLIANCES

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INDIA'S ISLAMIC TERROR GROWING FAST, WHILE INDIA KILLS KASHMIRI TERRORIST

RUSSIA, CHINA PROLIFERATE TO NORTH KOREA'S HEREDITARY DYNASTY & TURKEY'S NEW NIGHTMARE; PAKISTAN SHIFTS ALLIANCES

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EMERGING THREAT ASSESSMENT
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NORTH AMERICA