EMERGING THREATS U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY

TURKEY INVADES IRAQI KURDISTAN

6/17/2020

Turkey launches ground incursion into Iraqi Kurdistan
Turkey sent ground forces into the Kurdistan Region of Iraq today to attack suspected Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) targets. The operation is in the Haftanin area near the Turkish border. The ground operation follows Turkish bombings of suspected PKK targets across Iraq on Monday. Turkey has used ground troops before and has military bases in the area. Many locals and the Iraqi federal government have condemned the attacks.
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rudaw.net

US sanctions on Syria go into effect
A new wave of US sanctions on Syria goes into effect today as part of efforts to push the Syrian government into UN-led negotiations to end the nine-year war. “Our aim is to deprive the Assad regime of the revenue and the support it has used to commit the large-scale atrocities and human rights violations that prevent a political resolution and severely diminish the prospects for peace,” US Ambassador to the UN Kelly Craft told the Security Council on Tuesday. The Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act sanctions anyone who provides support to the Syrian government’s military operations or does business with Syria’s military, energy, construction and engineering sectors. Syria is reeling from an economic crisis, while rare anti-government protests are ongoing in the south.
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reuters.com

Seth J. Frantzman writes: The US and Iran might find themselves on the same side in Libya via Turkey. It all hinges on Cairo now. If Cairo has a military footprint in Libya it can do what Turkey has successfully done and leverage it for concessions. For now Egypt must watch and contemplate the next step. Everyone is also looking to Washington to do more than just hint that it supports both Egypt’s ceasefire proposal and Ankara’s approach. What happens next will also affect Washington’s other allies, in Jerusalem and Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. – Jerusalem Post

Blaise Misztal is a fellow at Hudson Institute. His research program focuses on the Middle East, Europe, and strategic competition. Most recently, Misztal served as the Executive Director of the Task Force on Extremism in Fragile States, a congressionally mandated project convened by the U.S. Institute of Peace. Prior to that, he was director of the Bipartisan Policy Center’s national security program.
Relevant articles:
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https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-turkey-shunned-russian-gas-its-companies-amassed-debt-11592216429
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https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/irans-zarif-went-to-turkey-to-push-close-relations-631517
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https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/turkish-plan-to-invade-greece-leaked-in-secret-reveal-report-631641
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https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/06/18/world/middleeast/18reuters-turkey-blast.html
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https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/06/turkey-strikes-pkk-kurdistan-iraq-sinjar-erdogan-hdp-akp.html

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RED SEA, AFRICAN HORN CHALLENGES: LIBYA DISINTEGRATES

6/2/2020

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Russia’s ally in Libya is battered by defeats. But Moscow has wider goals to expand its influence.

How Russia made Hemeimeem air base its African hub
The satellite images published on May 26 by AFRICOM appear to confirm reports that Russian MiG-29 jet fighters had flown to Libya. In fact, the MiG-29s travelled to Libya via Russia's Hemeimeem air base in Syria, and as this latest episode makes clear, Hemeimeem plays a central role in Russia’s growing involvement in both the Mediterranean and Africa.
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Spring 2020 Issue Middle East Journal

The Congella Power Station completed in 1928 was one of the first power plants built and owned by Eskom.

Gregory Copley, Defense and Foreign Affairs; in re: The South Africa Act 1909 amalgamated the four previously separate British colonies: Cape Colony, Colony of Natal, Transvaal Colony, and Orange River Colony. A 1960 referendum legitimized the country becoming the Republic of South Africa. On 27 April 1994, after decades of armed struggle, terrorism and international opposition to Apartheid, a deeply cruel anti-Black system invented and instituted by the Boers, the African National Congress (ANC) achieved victory in the country's first democratic election. Since then, the African National Congress has governed South Africa, in an alliance with the South African Communist Party and the Congress of South African Trade Unions.

The economy of South Africa is the second largest in Africa, after Nigeria. At present, South Africa has an extreme and persistent high unemployment rate of over 25%, which interacts with other socioeconomic problems such as: inadequate education, poor health and high levels of crime.

The ANC, home to the most distinguished revolutionaries of the Twentieth Century, was long seen as the saviour of the entire society. As it now stands, it looks as though the ANC has failed; that much-publicized criminality at high levels seems to have looted the state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to such a degree that the entire country might break into separate divisions. How this might occur is discussed in the segment.
.. .. ..
With salutations to Johnnie Mfanafuthi Makatini (1932-1988

US B-1 bomber drills aim at China, Russia By Stephen Bryan
In three major military operations, the US used B-1 bombers in missions aimed at Chinese fortified reefs and islands in the South China Sea, a strategic foray into the Okhotsk Sea aimed at Russia and a Black Sea mission that involved elements of Ukraine’s Air Force. Read More

Trump’s China policy at a cul-de-sac By MK Bhadrakumar
This past week has been a catastrophic seven days that shook America. Some of the debris may have fallen on President Donald Trump. Most importantly, the Trump administration has lost the plot on China. Read More

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INDIA VS. CHINA AT THE BORDER

6/2/2020

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From India’s Himalayan Border to Our Local Cell Networks, It’s Time to Push Back Against China

INDIA:
India’s Submarines Make Strategic Move to Dominate Indian Ocean
By H I Sutton, Forbes: “The most visible aspect of India’s programs are new nuclear-powered submarines that are being built, but beneath the surface there are other strategic steps to help ensure its Navy’s dominance of the Indian Ocean."

China’s Strategic Assessment of the Ladakh Clash by Yun Sun
Revelations about Russia’s Nuclear Deterrence Policy by Cynthia Robert

Here's a brief history of the disputed border, from the Times

Don't Believe the China Hype // Michael Schuman, The Atlantic: When it comes to assessing Chinese power, things aren't always as they seem.

Al jazeera BBC CNN

China’s Skirmish With India Is Only Its Latest Aggression During the Pandemic
Thomas Joscelyn — The Dispatch
China and India have quarreled over their border for nearly six decades. But Monday was the deadliest day in their dispute since 1975. At least 20 Indian soldiers were killed when a skirmish broke out in the Galwan river valley in the remote Ladakh region of the Himalayas. Tensions had been mounting for weeks, with President Trump offering to mediate the dispute in late May. (Neither side took him up on the offer.) The Indian government previously warned that the People’s Republic of China (PRC), ruled by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), has sent thousands of troops into the area since the beginning of the year. Naturally, the CCP accuses India of being the provocateur. Read More

James Stavridis writes: The U.S. has limited capital to engage in this particular dispute. Although President Donald Trump offered to mediate in a recent tweet, the chances of China accepting such assistance are negligible. A better approach is for the U.S. to continue moving closer to India, making it clear to Beijing that it will not allow New Delhi to be pressured out of greater alignment with Washington. – Bloomberg

Arif Rafiq writes: Indian officials often speak of a two-front war with China and Pakistan. […]China’s ingresses along the LAC provide an opportunity for both India and the United States to assess the second-order effects of their policies in South Asia. That reassessment must begin with Kashmir. – The National Interest

Aparna Pande writes: The crisis unleashed by the coronavirus pandemic will almost definitely create a new global order, and India could emerge stronger. But for that, Indians will have to shed the complacency that comes from believing that the nation’s long history makes its rise inevitable.[…] To appeal to neighbours, counter rivals, and bolster alliances, India needs to be economically strong with a rising GDP and a skilled labour force, while welcoming foreign investment and less government regulations. – Hudson Institute

Is courting India a waste of time?
Derek Scissors | AEIdeas

The wisest course for managing international agreements is ruthless pragmatism, a tonic antidote to the empty internationalism that sustained Open Skies. Learn more here.

A flare-up in a long-running border dispute between China and India has raised the temperature in their bilateral relationship. Yet it may be just as significant for the trilateral US-China-India relationship, points out Hal Brands in a Bloomberg op-ed. As the US-China rivalry goes global, India may be the only nonaligned country that can make a major difference in the balance of influence and advantage. The good news is that India and the US have a great deal to gain if they can hold the line against China — and much to lose if they cannot. Continue here.

Last month saw several face-offs between the Indian Army and China’s People’s Liberation Army along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), their long-disputed shared border, high in the Himalayas. While the entanglement in North Sikkim was resolved locally, within the framework of mutually agreed-upon protocols, the ones in Eastern Ladakh have lingered, giving rise to speculation about China’s intentions. – CNN

Archana Chaudhary writes: India must be careful how far it pushes. The government changed rules to allow hydroxychloroquine exports to the U.S. at Trump’s request last month, yet two-thirds of India’s bulk drugs and drug intermediates come from China. There are similar levels of dependency from electronics to auto parts. Chinese investments of more than $8 billion have been made in India, mostly in finance and technology startups. – Bloomberg

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/27/china-and-india-move-troops-as-border-tensions-escalate
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/us-ready-to-mediate-india-china-border-stand-off-trump/articleshow/76036991.cm

Fang-Yu Chen, Austin Wang, Charles K.S. Wu and Yao-Yuan Yeh write: Thus, it is incorrect to describe Tsai as either pro-status quo or pro-independence. Some scholars argue that Tsai’s pro-sovereignty mindset and policies, which have been seen as a direction of seeking independence by China, should be described as a form of “anti-annexation.” This is by far the best and most accurate approach to describe Tsai’s stance on cross-Strait relations. – The National Interest

Seth Cropsey writes: Since learning the danger of allowing powerful U.S. and allied forces to gather and strike from nearby waters and land in the two Gulf Wars, our potential foes continue to adapt using cyber, space, grey zone tactics, lawfare and compromised 5G technology, a widening spectrum that leads to an unlimited expansion of the battlefield. To assure its dominance, the U.S. must lead in all. The technological means to do so in grey zone tactics, particularly in ISRT, is one category where our advantage is established. We should use it to the hilt. – The HIll

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THE TSAR VS. THE OTTOMANS IN LIBYA

6/2/2020

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Libya is Now the Middle East's Most Important Proxy War by Seth Frantzman
The Spectator
May 20, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/60969/libya-is-now-middle-easts-most-important-proxy-wa

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EMERGING THREAT ASSESSMENT
GLOBAL STRIKE MEDIA.COM
NORTH AMERICA

TURKEY INVADES IRAQI KURDISTAN

RED SEA, AFRICAN HORN CHALLENGES: LIBYA DISINTEGRATES

INDIA VS. CHINA AT THE BORDER

THE TSAR VS. THE OTTOMANS IN LIBYA

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EMERGING THREAT ASSESSMENTGLOBAL STRIKE MEDIA.COM NORTH AMERICA

TURKEY INVADES IRAQI KURDISTAN

RED SEA, AFRICAN HORN CHALLENGES: LIBYA DISINTEGRATES

INDIA VS. CHINA AT THE BORDER

THE TSAR VS. THE OTTOMANS IN LIBYA

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Categories

What Our Clients Are Saying

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Subscribe Today!

EMERGING THREAT ASSESSMENT
GLOBAL STRIKE MEDIA.COM
NORTH AMERICA