EMERGING THREATS U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY - CounterStrikeMedia

u.s. responds to south china sea: containment

7/31/2016

East Asia

South Korea implemented a deal with Japan to compensate women used as military prostitutes, fresh evidence of a thaw between two feuding U.S. allies that Washington has pressed to work together to counter North Korea’s nuclear threat and an assertive China. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

The Air Force is preparing to send B-1 bombers to Guam for the first time in a decade. – Military Times

Despite the challenges, the Navy should double the number of American aircraft carrier strike groups operating in the Western Pacific, in part to counter China’s aggressive expansionism, analysts say. – Stars and Stripes

Russian naval forces plan to join Chinese forces for a joint exercise in the South China Sea, highlighting Moscow’s partnership with Beijing after a recent international legal ruling underlined rifts between China and Southeast Asian nations over rival claims across the sea. – New York Times

PUTIN INTERFERING IN U.S. ELECTION & how an act of Terror Got putin his Presidency

7/27/2016

National Review Online - Terrorism & Putin's Presidency

Jackson Diehl writes: After 15 years in power, Putin is skilled at the arts of deception, betrayal, sabotage and tactical aggression. Trump, by comparison, is a dilettante. So the consequence of a Trump-Putin world would not just be the triumph of amoral statesmanship; it would be the rise of Russian influence at America’s expense. – Washington Post

James W. Caesar - Hoover Institution - Weekly Standard - Putin Has Plans for Hillary & Trump

Bruce Thornton - Hoover Institution - Front Page Magazine - Trump & NATO

Foreign Policy Initiative: Conference Call on Russian Interference US Elections

AEI: Leon Aron, The New Cold War Explained

Missile Treaties
David Trachtenberg writes: While the importance of missile defenses for the protection of regional forces and the assurance of allies is no longer in dispute, the role such defenses should play in defending the American homeland remains controversial. Ironically, nearly a decade and a half after the United States withdrew from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty, which prohibited an effective nationwide defense against Soviet missile attack, the U.S. population remains hostage to Russian nuclear missile threats. As the chill in U.S.-Russian relations becomes deeper, it is time to reassess this policy. – National Institute for Public Policy

the shrinking u.s. military

7/26/2016

AEI - Legion Magazine

obama unilaterial nuclear changes

7/26/2016

Josh Rogin reports: President Obama’s last-minute drive for a foreign-policy legacy is making U.S. allies nervous about their own security. Several allied governments have lobbied the administration not to change U.S. nuclear-weapons policy by promising never to be the first to use them in a conflict. – Washington Post

Extended Deterrence in the 2nd Nuclear Age: Center for Strategic Budgetary Assessments

Foreign Policy Initiative Total Intelligence: White House Seeks to By-Pass Senate on Nuclear Policy

White House mulls big nuclear policy changes, FPI’s Adesnikassesses

As the clock ticks down on the final term of US President Barack Obama, who is believed to be reviewing a potential disarmament agenda for his last months in office, there has been a flurry of activity on Capitol Hill to try to influence the internal debate. – Defense News

FPI Policy Director David Adesnik writes: [E]ach and every one of the initiatives under consideration by the White House primarily constrains the United States and lessens the credibility of its nuclear deterrent while failing to rein in the provocations of hostile nuclear weapon states. Seven years after President Obama unveiled his Prague agenda, it remains unclear whether he has learned that American concessions cannot reduce the threat of nuclear war if Russia, China, North Korea and others remain firmly committed to growing and modernizing their arsenals. – Foreign Policy Initiative

Rogin: Obama will seek UN res on nuclear testing, WSJ + Colby respond

Singh: How the US can deter Iran’s nuclear program expansion

islamic state members attack french catholic priest

7/26/2016

Two men attacked a church in Saint-Etienne-du-Rouvray, France, killing an 84-year-old priest and leaving another person severely wounded. The two assailants, armed with knives, claimed to be part of the Islamic State and were killed by police as they exited the church. The attack comes less than two weeks after the Bastille Day massacre in Nice, France and amid a marked increase in terrorist attacks in France and Germany. The identities of the attackers has not been released, but French counterterrorism prosecutors are conducting an investigation.

Two men stormed a parish church in northern France on Tuesday morning and took several hostages, killing a priest and critically injuring another person before they were shot by the police, officials said. – New York Times

trump on nato conditions & how putin views the west

7/21/2016

Trump sets conditions for defending NATO allies against attack

Russian analysts said Mr. Putin is unlikely to be severely scarred, as he manages the crisis with his standard dual track: a message of at least modest cooperation for the international community, while feeding Russians the standard line that the West is perpetually plotting against them. – New York Times

Two forms of nationalism — one seeing Moscow as the centerpiece of a Eurasian civilization, different from the West and the other defining itself as ethnically Russian — are shaping political discussion inside and outside the Kremlin and influencing actions far away from its borders, two experts on Russia said Wednesday. – USNI News

Report: The challenge is not whether to engage or isolate Russia. Instead, it is the nature of the democracies’ engagement that must be rethought. Established democracies must pursue a more nimble and principled approach that takes into account the new environment in which Russia and other such authoritarian regimes are seeking to undermine democratic institutions and values. – McCain Institute

Breaking Defense: How Putin Wins in the Baltic

Defense One: Everything You Need To Know About NATO

russia delivers the 300s missile defense

7/18/2016

Russia delivered the first shipment of missiles for the S-300 air-defense system to Iran, which could have them operational by the end of the year, Iranian media reports; the system was purchased by Iran before international sanctions were enacted and its delivery was suspended from 2010 until earlier this year.

Russia is pushing its anti-access and area denial capabilities closer to the West, this time with plans to deploy S-400 air defense missiles to Crimea. Defense Tech reports that Russia's Lt. Col. Evgeny Oleinikov said the country will send the S-400 Triumf, Russia's most advanced air defense system, to the Crimean peninsula next month. The S-400 will add to the S-300 batteries, which Russia has already stationed there. Russia also recently sent additional S-300 missiles to Belarus, with which it shares a joint air defense network.

IRAN
Iran’s ballistic missile launches are inconsistent with the spirit of a nuclear deal, the United Nation’s secretary-general said in a report publicly released Monday, though he refrained from calling the launches an outright violation. – The Hill

Key restrictions on Iran's nuclear program imposed under an internationally negotiated deal will start to ease years before the 15-year accord expires, advancing Tehran's ability to build a bomb even before the end of the pact, according to a document obtained Monday by The Associated Press. – Associated Press

Report: With the implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in January 2016, most international sanctions against Iran have been lifted. These include long-standing U.S. sanctions against Iran’s aviation sector. The United States has removed all but four Iranian civilian airlines – Caspian Airlines, Mahan Air, Meraj Air, and Pouya Air – from its sanctions lists. Companies can now sell planes, spare parts, and services to most of the aviation industry, and financial institutions can provide financial services. – Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Saeed Ghasseminejad and Emanuele Ottolenghi write: Time and again, Khamenei has modified Iran’s political system to strengthen his own power. In theory, he welcomes the public’s participation in elections. In practice, he manipulates the system to forestall any effort at substantive change. His latest maneuvers illustrate an uncomfortable but unavoidable fact: after the nuclear deal, even more than before, the Islamic Republic remains firmly in the hands of the hardliners. – The Huffington Post

el salvador: death squads, terror & russian complicity

7/17/2016

In a ruling that clears the way for El Salvador to prosecute the perpetrators of war crimes committed during its brutal civil war, the country’s highest court has struck down an amnesty law that has protected soldiers, rebel fighters and death squads for more than two decades. – New York Times

Salvadoran authorities captured 120 members and associates of the Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13) gang, the prosecutor's office said on Thursday, part of a broad offensive to curb the escalation of gang-related killings in the Central American nation. - Reuters

china's international investment strategy: exploding & imploding

7/17/2016

AEI: Investment Tracker & PDF

nigerian famine & boko haram

7/14/2016

Médecins Sans Frontières has said that the United Nations failed to act quickly enough in northern Nigeria, where a food crisis is killing hundreds of people per day. The region was devastated by the Boko Haram insurgency, which has led to a halt in food production. Now even in the capital of Borno state, where rice costs $100 per bag, people are dying of hunger. Toby Lanzer, UN assistant secretary-general and regional humanitarian coordinator for the Sahel told the Guardianthat hundreds of thousands of lives are at risk in the region. “This is about as bad as it gets. There’s only one step worse and I’ve not come across that situation in 20 years of doing this work and that’s a famine,” said Lanzer. Grema Terab, who led the Nigerian state’s humanitarian response agency until 2015 has accused the government of outright neglect, including attempting to cover up the crisis rather than address it. The World Food Program was invited to Nigeria and is scaling up their operation in Borno, where it hopes to provide food aid to 700,000 people by December.

iran seeks covert nuclear materials, devices in germany

7/11/2016

Frederic Hof writes: Assad, with Russian and Iranian connivance, continues to conduct mass murder. And ISIS continues to dodge bombs from the air and Kurds on the ground. Being wrong analytically does not make one blind or immune to the consequences of what the United States has done, and failed to do, in Syria. – Real Clear World

For years, Iran covered up its military activities in Syria and Iraq, so the government could deny any official involvement on the ground…Now every Iranian killed in action is named, his picture published, his valor lauded in elaborate tributes in the hard-line news media and on Instagram accounts dedicated to the fighters. The reason for the change, analysts say, is not some newfound dedication to transparency but a rift between the Iranian establishment’s hard-liners, who control the military, and the moderates. – New York Times

The Obama administration is brushing aside new German intelligence reports indicating that Iran has accelerated its efforts to procure key nuclear materials, despite promises to end this behavior as part of last summer’s nuclear accord, according to comments by a U.S. official provided to the Free Beacon. – Washington Free Beacon

Michael Makovsky writes: We should adhere to the JCPOA, which is not legally binding, only as long as it serves our interests. We should commit that under no circumstances will Iran develop its ballistic missile and advanced nuclear R&D programs. At some point we're going to have to confront, whether diplomatically or otherwise, a more robust Iran and ensure that its nuclear program is ended. It could get very messy and very dangerous. And we will be able to thank President Obama and his crowning foreign policy achievement for putting us in that position – The Weekly Standard

The Tower: U.S. Funded Iranian Nuclear Program

Simon Henderson writes: Washington's confidence in the JCPOA's continued success is highly optimistic. Tehran is resentful of continued restrictions on its efforts to expand trade; although these limitations are largely a consequence of nonnuclear sanctions and Iran's own shortcomings (e.g., in the banking sector), the regime has nevertheless accused Washington of reneging on the deal. For their part, U.S. allies are skeptical of Washington's ability to firmly enforce the agreement. In words attributed to a British diplomat at the UN and repeated by numerous others, "The United States is no longer feared by its enemies or respected by its friends." – Washington Institute for Near East Policy

Foreign Policy Initiative - Total Intelligence - Iran Seeks Nuclear Material Abroad

Olli Heinonen writes: Iran plans to manufacture and install additional advanced centrifuges at its Natanz facility in about 10 years, substantially boosting the country’s uranium-enrichment capability, according to a confidential document leaked last week by the Associated Press. According to the plan – which Iran reportedly shared with the IAEA six months ago – Tehran’s breakout time will shrink to a few weeks or less. – Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Emanuele Ottolenghi and Annie Fixler write: The Iran nuclear deal failed to meet America’s goals and achieve long-term stability in the Middle East. When it unravels, neither diplomacy nor economic coercion will be available to fix its shortcomings. – Jewish Journal

obama plans major nuclear changes for u.s. policy last six months in office

7/11/2016

Pictures of "the football", name given to mobile nuclear command codes
Wash. Post

Adam Lowther and Carey Eichorst write: As the nation moves forward to the sunset of President Obama’s term in office, the disarmament community is focused on shifting the President’s nuclear legacy from one of support to the nation's nuclear enterprise to one that leaves the United States in an extremely vulnerable position—unable to either deter adversaries or assure allies. Simply put, nuclear weapons are an integral tool in the President’s arsenal and one he has rightfully maintained. – Real Clear Defense

Defense One: The Cold War Template for U.S. Nuclear Strategic Deterrence

Matthew Kroenig writes: The challenges posed by a multipolar nuclear Asia are severe, but not insurmountable. In the past, the United States has managed to understand, adapt to, and thrive in equally challenging security environments. By following the above steps, there is reason to believe that addressing the challenges of a multipolar nuclear Asia will be no different. – Defense One

yemeni child brides & war

7/11/2016

Wash. Post

india hits pakistani proxy in kashmir: war

7/11/2016

The Long War Journal (LWJ)

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif returned to Pakistan on Saturday after an absence of more than a month because of heart surgery in London, but his health problems have not softened the political opposition he faces. – New York Times

Indian police officers killed at least 10 people on Saturday when they fired on protesters in Kashmir, where thousands defied a curfew to attend a prayer service for a top separatist militant killed by Indian forces a day earlier. – New York Times

south korea gets missile defense

7/8/2016

The United States and South Korea have reached an agreement to deploy a Terminal High Altitude Air Defense (THAAD) battery to Korea, according to the Defense Department. The move is an attempt by the United States to reassure its ally as North Korea ratchets up its testing and development of ballistic missiles. A Pentagon statement on the decision emphasizes that the THAAD system "will be focused solely on North Korean nuclear and missile threats and would not be directed towards any third party nations."

The throat clearing is a nod to anxieties from China, which has lobbied hard against the deployment on the grounds that the system could be used to peer into Chinese airspace or directed at its forces. China swiftly condemned the agreement in the state-run People's Daily, with a statement from its foreign ministry registering "strong discontent and resolute opposition" to the upcoming deployment.

starvation & strongmen in latin america

7/6/2016

Roughly 500 Venezuelan women broke through the country’s border with Colombia in a desperate search for food.

Nancy Menges and Luis Fleischman write: Most importantly, the FARC must show, through their actions, that they will refrain from violence, give up their weapons, their territory, and the main thrust of their resources. The agreement should project a victorious Colombian state offering a chance to the FARC. It cannot be an agreement between equals since the former represents the law and the latter an assault on the law. – The Americas Report

NATO summit & moscow's shadown

7/6/2016

Foreign Policy Initiative

Russia is extending its air defense envelope closer to NATO's border with a transfer of advanced S-300 missile systems close to Poland. The National Interest reports that new satellite imagery published by Google Earth shows Russia has sent the air defense missiles to Belarus near the city of Polotsk. The S-300, developed in the 1970s, is capable of putting aircraft without stealth capabilities at great risk. Russia has deployed the system to conflict zones like Crimea and sold it to Iran, against the urging of western countries.

The Air Force is training pilots not to take the bait when Russian warplanes carry out dangerous intercepts of American military aircraft. An anonymous senior Air Force official tells Air Force Times that the United States is giving its pilots three basic maxims to remember when confronted by Russian pilots pulling shenanigans: "do not turn into the intercepting aircraft"; "fly the planned route"; and "do not be provocative.” Gen. Frank Gorenc, commander of U.S. Air Forces in Europe and Africa, tells the paper that a "change in focus" is needed as U.S. forces, used to fighting in counterinsurgency and counterterrorism operations, now have to confront the prospect of "full-spectrum, high-velocity combat operations."

Iranian Russian Relations: AEI

FPI’s Adesnik, Moore: Moscow’s shadow on the Warsaw Summit

iranian strategic shakeup at h.q., particles At Parchin & Dennis ross

7/1/2016

AEI

Particles at Parchin: Heinonen: Parchin particles indicate possible undeclared nuclear activities.

Dennis Ross writes: It is not too late for the JCPOA to fulfill the promises the Obama administration has made about it. But the next administration will need to bolster deterrence if the deal's critics are to be proven wrong. – Washington Institute for Near East Policy

russia fires nordic seaman, nato in sight

7/1/2016

The United States is operating two carrier strike groups in the Mediterranean, and over the past two weeks, both have had close calls with the Russian Navy frigate Yaroslav Mudry. The U.S. Naval Institute’s San LaGrone discovered that the latest incident took place Thursday, when the Russian ship came within 150 meters of the USS San Jacinto and “displayed maneuvers rarely seen by professional mariners at sea combined with an aggressive approach” toward the U.S. ship, which is escorting the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower as it carries out airstrikes against ISIS in Iraq. On June 17, the Yaroslav Mudry tangled with the U.S. destroyer USS Gravely, which is escorting the USS Harry S. Truman. Moscow complained that the Gravely came within a “dangerous distance” of nearly 600 feet and “violated international and bilateral agreements.” American officials say the Gravely was just protecting the carrier, as the Mudry was “intentionally trying to interfere with Harry S. Truman operations.”

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu is clearing house within the Russian navy's admiralty. Shoigu canned dozens of top officers from the Baltic Fleet, citing “dereliction of duty” and “distortion of the real state of things" as the reason for the dismissals. The firings took out Vice Baltic Fleet commander Admiral Viktor Kravchuk and flowed through his senior aides. What, specifically, led to the shakeup remains unclear but Russia has been on a consistent course of confrontation with NATO forces in the Baltics, intercepting American spy planes there and buzzing U.S. intelligence ships.

Instagram user @rus_foxhound_rus posts an up-close happy snap of what appears to be a U.S. RC-135U spy plane. U.S. Air Force RC-135s have been the target of harassment by Russian fighter jets recently with the warplanes carrying out what the U.S. has labeled as dangerous intercepts of the aircraft.

Armenia is now officially a part of Russia's air defense network. Reuters reports that Armenia's parliament has okayed an agreement to integrate its forces into a regional air defense network with Russia, which Armenian Defence Minister Seyran Ohanyan says "will allow us to have serious reconnaissance data." Armenia is locked in a long running conflict with its neighbor Azerbaijan, with the Nagorno-Karabakh serving as a recent flashpoint. The regional air defense network, however, will not cover Nagorno-Karabakh.

Russia has accused a U.S. diplomat who was tackled by a Federal Security Service (FSB) guard of being a spy. Sources tell Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty that the FSB officer broke the diplomat's shoulder after sacking him outside the U.S. embassy in Moscow. Russia's Foreign Ministry, however, claims that the American is a CIA officer under diplomatic cover who threw an elbow at the FSB guard and denies that his shoulder was broken in the incident. The confrontation comes amid reports from the Washington Post of Russia increasingly harassing American diplomats in Moscow, killing their pets and defecating on their carpets.

china launches new spy instrument in space & how the U.s. hits china

7/1/2016

China has launched a new spy satellite into orbit, according to Spaceflight Now. The satellite, dubbed Shijian 16, was launched from the Gobi desert atop a Long March 4B rocket. China says the satellite will perform “spacial environment detection and technological experiments,” but experts believe it's bound for less pedestrian work. Based on Shijian 16's orbit, analysts believe the satellite will likely be used to eavesdrop on electronic communications.

Defense One: How U.S. Hits China