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A PROBLEM CALLED CHINA: HONG KONG ISN'T RESOLVED; HOW DOES CHINA SIGNAL A CHANGE IN LEADERSHIP7/26/2019
Trump ignores Hong Kong protesters and focuses on China’s money
The demonstrators are standing up to an authoritarian bully — and the president's indifference to their plight is both immoral and reckless.
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Are the Insurgencies Truly Over?
The End of the Syrian Civil War by Thomas R. McCabe Middle East Quarterly Summer 2019 (view PDF) https://www.meforum.org/58684/are-the-syria-insurgencies-truly-over
Turkey-Kurd Dispute Shows Why the U.S. Should Leave Syria
By Jerrod A. Laber, RealClearDefense: "The Trump administration is trying to stave off a Turkish invasion of northeast Syria, The Washington Post reports, which could begin within the next two weeks."
Russia’s Military Leaders Exploit Lessons From Experiments in Syria
By Roger McDermott, Eurasia Daily Monitor: “The leadership of the Russian Armed Forces at the defense ministry and General Staff levels is exploiting lessons learned from the country’s recent involvement in foreign conflicts as part of a process to enhance military capability."
What's at stake for Russia with S-400 deliveries to Turkey?
The decision to sell the missile system to Turkey is now seen as a win for Moscow, but this doesn't mean it came easy. And there are still potential downsides for Russia.
Russian Soft Power in the Middle East
By Shay Attias, July 26, 2019 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Russian soft power efforts in the Middle East are bearing fruit, as many young Arabs now view Moscow as an ally and the US as unreliable. Russia wants to build more ties with the Muslim world and views Trump’s presidency as an opportunity in that regard. This ambition is tempered somewhat by the Muslim jihadist threat in Russian areas and, of course, the painful legacy of the war in Afghanistan. Continue to full article ->
The Syrian Sideshow by Jonathan Spyer
The Jerusalem Post July 18, 2019 https://www.meforum.org/58979/the-syrian-sideshow
U.S., TURKEY:
Turkey, U.S. Agree to Coordinate on Syrian Buffer Zone By Ayla Jean Yackley, Al-Monitor: "Turkey and the United States appear to have sidestepped a confrontation over northeast Syria by agreeing to jointly establish a buffer zone after protracted negotiations had inflamed tensions, prompting Ankara to threaten to invade an area where U.S. troops are present.
Turkey says US safe zone proposal ‘not at all satisfactory’
Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu aired his grievances with the proposed US safe zone in Syria in front of the press on Wednesday. "New US proposals on a Syria safe zone are not at all satisfactory for Turkey," he said. "We have the impression that the US is procrastinating. Cavusoglu said Turkey and the United States have not agreed on the size of the zone, who will control it or whether the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) would be allowed to operate inside. Ankara considers the YPG to be a terrorist group and has threatened an offensive against the Syrian Kurds if safe zone talks fail. Read More
The End of the Syrian Civil War
The Many Implicationsby Eyal Zisser Middle East Quarterly Summer 2019 (view PDF) https://www.meforum.org/58648/end-of-syrian-civil-war-implications
What's next for Russia in Idlib?
Following the violation of the cease-fire in Idlib, Russia faces the need to manage the breakout of new hostilities and fix the deal with Turkey.
Adm. Davidson: China Assaults International Order
The most profound change resulting from China’s military modernization has been in its space capabilities. Back in 2000 China only had 10 satellites in orbit, and this year it will launch more satellites than any other nation on the planet.
My own attention this week has been focused in a related area. The website Law & Liberty published an essay I have been developing for several months on how the insights of classical liberal tradition might serve as a starting point for a new antipoverty consensus among conservatives and libertarians. In " The Theory of Moral Sentiments," Adam Smith was the first to articulate a close observation of the crucial role family and community play in human development and the functioning of the market. Smith’s theory validates the human mutuality cherished by traditional conservatives and the emergent order at the heart of libertarian perspectives on market economies. My essay argues that there aren’t two Adam Smiths, but rather one who was considering how human sociability both shapes people and gives rise to markets. That sounds like a promising place to start a conversation.
Brexit: The Elites Turn Against Democracy Editorial of The New York Sun | July 25, 2019
https://www.nysun.com/editorials/brexit-the-elites-turn-against-democracy/90778/ What a shocking entry of the International Monetary Fund into the domestic politics of Britain. As Queen Elizabeth II was preparing to ask Boris Johnson to form Britain's new government, a leaderless IMF issued a warning against a "no-deal Brexit." It did so in the face of the Mother of Parliaments that has just heaved up a premier committed to the referendum decision for Brexit, even one with no deal. And in the face of an America that supports that decision. Continue Reading
Brexit Trumps the United Kingdom Editorial of The New York Sun | July 31, 2019
https://www.nysun.com/editorials/brexit-trumps-the-united-kingdom/90783/ The latest panic in respect of Brexit is a warning that it could lead to a break up of the United Kingdom. "Brexit has become the enemy of the UK union," is the headline in Nikkei's world business newspaper, the London Financial Times. It's worried about Scottish disunion and Irish unification. "Boris Johnson's 'do or die' strategy," the FT says, "is gambling with Britain's future." Continue Readin
Sub-Saharan Africa
Democratic Republic of Congo: Army Claims Rwandan Hutu Rebel Commander Killed. Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) army says they have killed Sylvestre Mudacumura, commander of the Rwandan Hutu fighters wanted for war crimes by the International Criminal Court. Mudacumura had been a leader of the group since its founding in 2000 by Hutu officials who fled Rwanda at the end of the 1994 genocide. "Sylvestre Mudacumura was neutralised by the armed forces of Congo along with all the elements accompanying him ... in Rutshuru territory," army spokesman Richard Kasonga said. France 24 Reuters The Washington Post Uganda: Russia to Help Uganda Develop Nuclear Energy. Uganda said on Wednesday it had signed an Inter-Governmental Agreement (IGA) with Russia to help it build capacity to exploit nuclear technology for energy, medical, and other peaceful purposes. Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni has previously said it is eager to use the country’s uranium deposits to boost energy production capacity. In May last year Uganda also signed a memorandum of understanding with China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) to help Uganda build capacity in the use of atomic energy for peaceful purposes. Reuters
Buried in the Sands of the Ogaden: Lessons from an Obscure Cold War Flashpoint in Africa by Sam Wilkins
CTP is launching a new brief series! The Africa File is a biweekly analysis and assessment of the Salafi-jihadi movement in Africa and related security and political dynamics. Each edition begins "At a Glance” followed by country-specific updates. Read this week’s edition here!
U.S. Efforts Are Essential to Counter an Islamic State Comeback
The Islamic State can no longer rely on local funding sources as it did when it controlled territory. But as an insurgency, its expenses are far lower. With revenue from criminal activities and the cash it hoarded, the group will survive as a clandestine terrorist movement. Counterfinance, intelligence, and possibly military action will be needed. Read more » 
Get the Latest Updates from Counter-Islamism Grid July 19, 2019
https://www.meforum.org/58919/get-the-latest-updates-from-counter-islamism-grid
Al-Qaeda Strong as Ever After Rebuilding Itself, U.S. Says
By Glen Carey, Bloomberg: "Al-Qaeda and its affiliates remain as much of a threat to the U.S. as “it has ever been” after the terrorist group rebuilt itself while the U.S. and other nations focused on destroying Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, a State Department official said."
Osama bin Laden’s Son Likely Is Dead. Here’s What It Means.
Though not a veteran warrior, Hamza bin Laden enjoyed star power within jihadist circles due to his father’s legacy. He potentially represented al-Qaeda’s future. More
MIDDLE EAST:
Islamic State Wages Desert-Based Insurgency in Iraq and Syria By Thomas Joscelyn, FDD's Long War Journal: "The U.S.-led coalition, Combined Joint Task Force — Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTF-OIR), reports that “ISIS has been able to regroup and sustain operations in Iraq and Syria.”"
Salafi-jihadi groups' stakes in the Libyan civil war.
 The Mirage of an International Jerusalem by Michel Gurfinkieliel
Mosaic July 8, 2019 https://www.meforum.org/58966/the-mirage-of-an-international-jerusalem  HOOVER POLICY ED TACKLES POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY & HOW WAR BETWEEN RUSSIA AND CHINA IS IMMINENT7/14/2019 xpect a War Between Russia and China in the 2020s By Pravin R. Jethwa, July 18, 2019 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Notwithstanding the seeming friendship between Chinese president Xi Jinping and Russian president Vladimir Putin, and the growing congruence of both countries’ interests in undermining the US-led international order, relations between Russia and China remain at their core as brittle and prone to mutual suspicion and distrust as they have in the past. It is not unreasonable to expect that that underlying animosity will erupt into violence in the relatively near future. Continue to full article -> The Impacts of China’s Missile Forces on Russian Threat Perceptions and the INF Architecture By Martin Andrew, China Brief: "Discussions of the INF architecture usually focus narrowly on either Russia and the United States, or on the United States and the PRC. Furthermore, significant discussion has taken place regarding how Chinese missile forces might impact the military calculations of the United States, Australia, Japan, and other Pacific nations. However, little attention has generally been given to how developments in the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) affect Russia."  Explaining Political Uncertainty
by David Brady via PolicyEd The country is currently facing electoral and political instability due to economic and demographic changes that are breaking apart existing voting blocs. This instability will continue until one party finds a dominant set of issues that attracts a winning coalition of voters. Stabilizing the political landscape will require party coalitions to address critical issues like immigration, inequality, worker insecurity, environmental challenges, and trade in a way that brings together a stable majority of voters.
Iran's military is making strides into 21st-century technology
Michael Rubin | The National Interest
Iran's New Global Terrorist Network by Con Coughlin •
Russia's and China's Geopolitical Offensive in Africa By Emil Avdaliani, July 10, 2019 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Both China and Russia have increased their influence on the African continent through money, diplomacy, and other measures – efforts that go directly against US interests. Washington has paid little attention to Africa and will find it difficult to compete with Moscow and Beijing, particularly as other geopolitical theaters require its immediate attention. Continue to full article -> 
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