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CHINA CONTROLS SOUTH CHINA LITTORAL NATION STATES BY WATER MANAGEMENT, LIBYA & US DEFENSE SPENDING

7/27/2020

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The Risks Of China's Three Gorges Dam's Flooding
by Michael R. Auslin via National Review
China has been suffering through record rains the past weeks, leading to the worst flooding in the country in decades. There is little relief in sight, and the Yangtze River is now above flood level, according to China’s Ministry of Water Resources. A few days ago, officials admitted that certain “peripheral” structures of the massive Three Gorges Dam deformed due to the building water pressure. 
Turkey untroubled by conflict with Egypt, UAE in Libya
Ankara believes a large-scale Egyptian ground operation is highly unlikely in Libya, considering the likely dynamics of power struggles in the skies of Sirte and al-Jufra, between tribes in southern Libya and on air and naval logistical routes between Libya and Turkey.
Read More  
Gary Schmitt points out that the speech gives the impression of an administration doubling down on its intent to meet the challenge of a rising, revisionist power. But changing Chinese behavior, as Secretary Pompeo wants, requires more presence and deterrence than the US military presently has in the Indo-Pacific.  Read here.
Cutting the defense budget to restrain US foreign policy is a way to avoid tough choices and set clear priorities. In a Defense Priorities op-ed, Mackenzie Eaglen argues that just because the US can reduce the budget by $500 billion over 10 years does not mean that it should. If we take such cuts, we will have a hobbled and hollow force, nuclear uncertainties, emboldened adversaries, the destruction of domestic manufacturing industries, supply chain failures, and an isolated, less prosperous America. Substantial cuts to the defense budget, while possible, are fiscally irresponsible political theater.  Read more here.

Last week, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo decried China’s “campaign of bullying” in the South China Sea (SCS) and pledged that the US “would not allow Beijing to treat the SCS as its maritime empire.” So what measures might be on the table because of the administration’s change in policy? In a War on the Rocks op-ed, Zack Cooper and Bonnie Glaser note that Washington should consider economic sanctions, more military patrols, capacity building, and tougher multilateral diplomacy. The US cannot prevent China from dominating the SCS and undermining the application of rules and norms in Asia’s maritime coasts without accepting more risk. Learn more here.
Iran requires a hard-line stance, but erasing a war criminal’s past because of antagonism toward Tehran is wrong because it affirms a strategy Saddam himself mastered. To forgive Baathism or other extremisms out of animus toward Tehran condemns the region to further bloodshed. Continue here.

Egypt is preparing to deploy its army outside its borders for the first time in almost 30 years. At issue is Libya, where Turkey has intervened to support Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj. But is Cairo about to make a mistake? There is no guarantee that Egypt will be able to achieve its aims quickly and at a cost the Egyptian economy can easily bear, points out Michael Rubin in a National Interest op-ed. Still, Egypt is correct to counter Turkey in Libya. It is time for Washington either to reassert counter-terror leadership itself or to back allies who wish to do so. Read here.


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TUNISIA, HOME OF ARAB SPRING:  POLITICAL DEADLOCK & ANOTHER STREET VENDOR DIES

7/17/2020

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Ten years on, Tunisians protest government, corruption
 The government ordered a total lockdown on Jan. 14. What should have been a celebration of 10 years of democracy turned into a clampdown under the pretext of COVID-19 sanitary measures. The country exploded in angry revolt with running battles with police in the burning nighttime streets of popular neighborhoods across Tunisia.
Unrest in Tunisia Grows.  Over 600 people have been arrested, and the Army has been deployed in some regions an attempt to prevent the further spread of violent unrest, which has so far been seen in a dozen Tunisian cities.  Protesters are angry at the state of Tunisia’s economy and lack of public services. Al Jazeera
Special briefing: The Arab Spring a decade on
Various Authors
Read viewpoints
Autumn 2020 Issue

2021 will be a defining year for Syria
Charles Lister
Protests erupt in Tunisia after death of street vendor 
Clashes erupted in Tunisia’s Kasserine province between protesters and security forces on Tuesday after a man died when authorities demolished his kiosk. The cigarette vendor died after the roof of his kiosk in the town of Sbeitla collapsed over his head after municipal police flattened the structure with a bulldozer. The death prompted Prime Minister Hichem Mechichi to dismiss Kasserine’s governor and three other officials. The incident sparked angry protests with people who have long suffered from marginalization in the area, blocking roads with burning tires and throwing stones at police. Sbeitla is one of Tunisia’s most impoverished cities, including Sidi Bouzid, where a street vendor’s self-immolation in 2011 ignited the Arab Spring. 
Read More  
reuters.co
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Tunisian government wins key confidence vote 
Tunisia’s parliament today granted a vote of confidence for a new technocratic government headed by Prime Minister Hichem Mechichi, in hopes of ending months of political paralysis. President Kais Saied appointed Mechichi as the new prime minister in late July to replace Elyes Fakhfakh, who resigned over corruption accusations. Mechichi’s government, the third in less than a year, received 134 votes. Tunisia’s moderate Islamist Ennahda party, which had previously opposed the new Cabinet lineup while calling for a unity government instead, voted in favor of Mechichi “despite reservations.” The new prime minister vowed to “address the economic and social situation.” Tunisia’s successive governments following the 2011 uprising have failed to solve the rising unemployment rates and poor public services, leading to renewed protests concentrated in the country’s south this year.
 Read More  
english.alarabiya.net
Tunisian president appoints former adviser as prime minister 
Tunisia's President Kais Saied appointed over the weekend Interior Minister Hichem Mechichi as the new prime minister amid a deep political crisis. Mechichi replaces Elyes Fakhfakh who resigned earlier this month over accusations of having conflicts of interest regarding a business he has shares in that has received some $15 million worth of public contracts. If the new prime minister-designate fails to form a new government within a month, the president will dissolve parliament and call for new elections at a time the country is grappling with a serious economic crisis made worse by the coronavirus outbreak.
 Read More  
reuters.com
Tunisia: Prime Minister Resigns, Political Deadlock Looms.  Prime Minister Elyes Fakhfakh resigned from his post late Wednesday evening, following a dispute with his ruling Ennahda party that recently withdrew its support for Fakhfakh’s government.  Fakhfakh resigned “in order to pave the way to get out of the crisis and avert further difficulties for the country,” according to his resignation statement.  The Prime Minister faced allegations that he owned shares in companies that had won lucrative contracts from the state, although he denied the allegations.  Al Jazeera Bloomberg France 24
Not Necessarily Done When You’ve Won: On Kicking a Great Power When It’s Down by William Wohlforth   
Erdogan meets Libya’s Sarraj in Istanbul amid Libya escalation 
Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the head of Libya’s internationally-recognized government met in Istanbul on Saturday amid escalating tensions over Sirte and al-Jufra. Erdogan and Fayez al-Sarraj, the head of Libya’s western Government of National Accord, discussed the latest in the conflict, Turkey’s presidency said in a statement. Sarraj’s visit came as the Turkish-backed GNA forces are preparing for a military operation to seize control of the strategic coastal province of Sirte and central Libya’s al-Jufra base. Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi declared the two targets a “red line,” and has threatened to militarily intervene on Gen. Khalifa Hifter’s side if the GNA should advance on Sirte and al-Jufra. Along with Egypt, the United Emirates and Russia also back Hifter’s forces. The United States military last week released aerial imagery that it said depicted Russian military forces near Sirte, suggesting Russia may be gearing up to defend the coastal city. Erdogan also discussed the possibility of a “political solution” in Libya during a phone call with Italy's Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte.
 Read More  
iletisim.gov.tr
Russian Oil Grab in Libya Fuels US-Kremlin Tensions 
A recent move by Russia’s Wagner paramilitary forces into Libya’s southern oil fields is escalating tensions between the United States and Russia over Libya’s future. US officials are becoming concerned that Russian mercenaries are increasingly focused on taking over the country’s petroleum industry after a company owned by Russian businessman and confidant of President Vladimir Putin, Yevgeny Prigozhin, set up shop in the coastal town of Es Sider, east of Sirte. The US Treasury Department expanded its sanctions on Prigozhin-owned companies earlier this month. Prigozhin is widely believed to oversee the Wagner mercenaries, who operate as an arm of Russia's Defense Ministry.
Read More  ​
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ETHIOPIA FORGES AHEAD:  FILLS NILE DAM & THE MIDDLE EAST INSTITUTE'S PUBLICATION SPRING EDITION

7/17/2020

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Eritrea weighs role in Egypt-Ethiopia dispute over Nile dam
 Eritrea’s president visited Cairo against the backdrop of the faltering talks on the Nile dam dispute, raising questions about Eritrea’s role in helping reach an agreement between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan.
Anger flares as Ethiopia announces, denies Nile dam filling has started
 Ethiopia has denied reports that the filling of its controversial Nile mega dam has begun.
Washington’s response to counterrevolutionary agendas in Libya
Khalid Al-Jaber, Giorgio Cafiero
Why did Moscow call Ankara’s Hagia Sophia decision “Turkey’s internal affair”?
Maxim A. Suchkov
Russia’s approach to Responsibility to Protect in the Black Sea and Syria
Ketevan Murusidze
The eastern Mediterranean heats up as conflicts over energy move onshore
Geoffrey Aronson
New old dynamics at play in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict
Thomas de Waal
Spring 2020 Issue
Egypt, Libya: Sisi Escalates War Rhetoric, Mulls Libyan Intervention.  Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi escalated his rhetoric on Thursday on potential Libyan intervention, and once again threatened to send in the Egyptian army in support of the Libyan National Army (LNA).  “Egypt will not stand idle in the face of any moves that pose a direct threat to the national security not only of Egypt but also that of Libya,” Sisi said while speaking to tribal leaders in Benghazi.  The Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA) condemned Sisi’s remarks as a “blatant interference in Libyan internal affairs.”  Egypt received authorization from the LNA-backed parliament on Tuesday to intervene in Libya’s civil war, but they have yet to mobilize their troops.  Al Jazeera Middle East Eye Reuters
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HOW CHINA'S ECONOMY IS A PARASITE

7/6/2020

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India Has Few Options to Thwart Chinese Aggression
By Sarosh Bana, October 12, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Despite military and political parleys between India and China to reach an understanding on their border dispute, the situation is careening toward a flashpoint. An estimated 50,000 Chinese PLA troops now control a combined area of about 1,000 square kilometers in India’s eastern Ladakh. India has few options with which to confront China’s unilateral redrawing of the LAC.

Continue to full article ->
Watch China’s actions, don’t listen to its words
​
Beijing’s parasitic model weakens the global economy, its traditional hosts are becoming poorer. Which is likely one of the reasons why Beijing is now so focused on leeching off of Africa, South America, and others. It’s also why being blocked from a market such as India could be a serious problem.
The Next Pandemic, National Debt, Will Crater the Economy
Nick Gillespie, Reason
India's Labour And Farm Reforms Should Be Just A Start
quoting Frank Dikötter via Live Mint
A look at the East Asian development model offers an indication of how much more must be done.
No Cause For Alarm
quoting Thomas Sowell via City Journal
Different demographic groups excelling in different areas of endeavor does not prove discrimination.
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PUTIN:  THE RUSSIAN PRESIDENT FOR LIFE; ALGERIA TRANSITIONS AGAIN & SAUDI'S GO TO WAR

7/4/2020

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We Still Have More Questions Than Answers on Russian Bounties
Thrones Wreathed in Shadow: Tacitus and the Psychology of Authoritarianism by Iskander Rehman
Dov S. Zakheim writes: Perhaps, as Trump’s poll numbers continue to sink, Putin will decide that he must exploit the window of opportunity that he now has to move his forces into Belarus, thereby placing Poland in a Russian vise. Even if he does not, Putin’s extended tenure means that Russia no longer can be seen solely as a near-term threat to American interests. On the contrary, the next several presidents will have to contend with a man whose life’s mission is, as Kennan so elegantly put it in his Long Telegram, “to seek security only in patient but deadly struggle for total destruction of rival power.” – The Hill
​

David B. Rivkin Jr. and George S. Beebe write: Confirmed or not, the allegations should serve as a sobering reminder that unconstrained shadow warfare with Moscow can produce genuine dangers for Americans. One glaring difference between the Cold War and today is that the Cold War was fought within the parameters of agreed rules. Today, we have almost none. We would be wise to consider this as our national discourse on Russia proceeds. – The Hill
Tokyo pulled out of a new missile defense system, ostensibly because it does not want to be “caught in the middle” of a confrontation, writes Stephen Bryern
A major report released by China’s National Institute for South China Sea Studies warns of the dangers of rising tension in Sino-American affairs. Gordon Watts explains that concerns are growing that intense rivalry could spill over into “armed conflict”.
The nation announced a major shift in its defense strategy to challenge China’s threat in the Indo-Pacific, with US$185 billion newly budgeted for long-range missiles, satellite surveillance and other counter-measures, reports Alan Boyd.
Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan’s coalition government faces a tri-pronged threat comprised of political defections, a spiraling Covid-19 outbreak and a collapsing economy, a triple whammy that some reckon could cut short his elected tenure, reports FM Shankil.
Why Adam Smith’s Critique of Mercantilism Matters Today
Saudi Arabia: Saudi-Led Coalition Starts Military Operation Against Yemen’s Houthis.  A Saudi-led coalition started a military operation against Yemen’s Houthi movement on Wednesday.  This comes after Yemen’s Houthi Rebels executed cross-border missile and drone attacks last week.  Yemen has reported air strikes on the capital Sanaa, Marib, al-Jouf, al-Bayda, Hajjah, and Saada provinces throughout the day and into the night.  Haaretz Reuters The New York Times
Algerian court imprisons officials, figures linked to former regime 
An Algerian court sentenced to prison several officials and businessmen linked to former President Abdelaziz Bouteflika on charges of corruption on Wednesday. Prominent tycoon Ali Haddad was slapped with an 18-year jail sentence. Meanwhile, Abdelmalek Sellal and Ahmed Ouyahia, former prime ministers who are already behind bars for other graft cases, were each handed a 12-year jail term. Jail terms ranging between two to 20 years were also handed down to eight former ministers. Authorities in Algeria have arrested several of the country’s wealthiest businessmen and former officials amid protests that continued despite Bouteflika's resignation last year, as Algerians demand a transition to democracy and the trial of figures linked to the former regime.  Read More  
yahoo.com
Oriana Skylar Mastro testified before the House Foreign Affairs Committee Subcommittee on Asia, the Pacific, and Nonproliferation to discuss how Beijing’s aims for maritime power engage US interests. Mastro recommended that Washington prioritize countering Chinese ambitions in the South China Sea and the East China Sea and devise a hedging strategy in the Indian Ocean. For any of these initiatives to succeed, however, Washington will need a lasting strategy to deter China's aggression. The US has made some progress in this regard, but given the extent of China’s maritime ambitions, it is not yet enough. Read the testimony here.
For years, there have been good reasons to move or keep certain supply chains out of China, and advanced semiconductors may top the list. Strengthening the US over China in the chip industry will require precisely crafted legislation, notes Derek Scissors in an AEIdeas blog post. One set of needed legal restrictions is export controls applied to all state-funded advanced products and technologies. However, supply chains should not be confined to the US. If friendly countries abide by export controls and restrictions on dealings with China, their participation could be advantageous. US-China competition is long term, and leveraging new semiconductor chains will pull countries and companies toward helping us.  Continue here.

Last week, the Australian government published a white paper on defense and national strategy. The report underscores that Australia is ramping up its defense spending by 40 percent over the next decade, accounting for China’s aggressive behavior in the region and toward Canberra itself, notes Gary Schmitt in an American Interest article. As most countries get ready to tighten their belts in the wake of COVID-19, the Australian government intends to deal with the security environment as it is, not as it hopes it might be.  Read more here.
The domino theory, in which setbacks accumulate quickly and catastrophically, is one of the most controversial ideas in US foreign policy. But the 70th anniversary of the Korean War alerts us that domino dynamics could affect US-China competition today. In a Bloomberg op-ed, Hal Brands points out that if China took control over Taiwan, it would undermine US strategy throughout the region and would unsettle nearby countries dependent on American power. This doesn’t mean the US should go all out to compete with China everywhere, but competition reminds us that what happens in one country may not stay there. Learn more here.
Autocratic regimes like Vladimir Putin’s Russia have enacted measures that oppress their citizens under the guise of fighting the coronavirus. The Trump administration should seek to hold governments like Russia accountable. But that is not the case this time, note Dalibor Rohac and Melissa Hooper in a Hill op-ed. If the administration is silent, then Congress must act. Congress can direct, structure, and fund federal action needed to combat autocratic power grabs and coordinate such efforts with other similarly minded nations. Continue here.
Michael Rubin writes: This is why not only Congress and the Pentagon, but also the State Department and the National Security Council should consider the impact of rebasing U.S. forces leaving Germany in Poland, especially when other alternatives exist in the Baltics, Romania, or the Czech Republic. The question then becomes whether Poland’s anti-democratic leaders will see the U.S. presence less as a defense against Russia and more as a means to immunize themselves from returning to the democratic order. U.S. forces should be in Europe to protect the liberal order, not to accelerate its end. – The National Interest
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