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DANIEL PIPES

PROJECT SYNDICATE
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BUSINESS INSIDER
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Russia signed a military co-operation agreement with the Central African Republic (CAR) on 21 August, aiming to facilitate expanded training for CAR’s armed forces. The Russia-CAR military agreement follows the United Nations Security Council’s decision in December 2017 to grant Russia an exemption to the arms embargo on CAR. - IHS Jane's

Joost Hiltermann writes: Seven years into the war in Syria, as Turkey struggles to shield itself from the destabilizing spillover of regional turmoil, Erdoğan’s bet on the Arab world looks increasingly like a losing one. A Syria at war has become the graveyard for any dreams of the neo-Ottoman grandeur he may have nurtured. - The Atlantic

Aaron Stein writes: But the nature of its fall, whether it goes down in a violent cataclysm that spreads refugees and jihadists across the region or whether its leaders are able to peacefully negotiate its re-entry into Syria, is far from certain. The outcome will depend largely on the interaction between Russia and Turkey, the two most influential external actors in Idlib. - War on the Rocks

Africa. >>>

1. Russia Moves Further into Africa 

What happened: This week, the Russian Ministry of Defense struck a deal on military cooperation with the Central African Republic and Burkina Faso. The agreement states that Russian specialists will help train the Central African military—both on the ground and in Russian military schools. In Burkina Faso, Russia will cooperate on the joint training of troops, peacekeeping, and the fight against terrorism.

• The agreement comes just weeks after three Russian journalists were murdered in the CAR while investigating the Wagner Group, a Russian private military company.  
• Russia currently provides military assistance to the CAR with the consent of the UN Security Council. A UN military contingent is stationed in CAR, and U.S. and French military bases exist in Burkina Faso.
• In March, the Russian Foreign Ministry announced that it was sending five militaryand 170 civilian instructors to train the armed forces in the CAR, as well as ammunition to its army—it has also struck military agreements with other African nations, some of which have continued since the nineties. [RBC]

What it means:

• Dmitry Bondarenko, Institute of African Studies: Russia is unlikely to earn money by selling weapons to these countries, which can’t afford Russian arms. But Russia can benefit from access to natural resources, particularly uranium and precious metals.
• There is also an international embargo imposed on the CAR, meaning that Russia must gain special permission from the UN in order to send military property to the country. [RBC]
• Vadim Zaitzev, Andrei Maslov, Yulia Timofeeva, Africa experts: The murder of the Russian journalists in the CAR raises questions about what Russia is doing in the country and what its objectives are. But Russia has no major business interests and isn’t playing a “geopolitical game” there yet.
• The CAR is one of the poorest countries in the world, marred by political instability, and lacking in strategic importance as a landlocked country, though its diamond and gold mines have attracted foreign companies.
• Russia’s role is exaggerated because it is convenient, especially for Western nations, to paint the country as an opponent. While in the long term, Russia’s presence in the CAR could transform into a political project in the context of BRICS, for now, it’s a simple business story. [Carnegie.ru]

Trump Adviser Bolton Says Russia 'Stuck' in Syria, Iran Must Leave 
By Dan Williams, Reuters: “Russia is “stuck” in Syria and looking for others to fund post-war reconstruction there, U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton said, describing this as an opportunity for Washington to press for Iranian forces to quit the country.”
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Why Erdogan's so quiet about Turkish expansion in Africa
 It seems out of character for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to be so tight-lipped about Turkey's growing investments and influence in Africa, but he's certain to have a reason.

Egyptian economy hits highest growth rate in 10 years
 Egypt has hit its highest economic growth rate in a decade, but experts disagree about what it means for high prices in the country.

China Rises, America Falters, and Geoeconomics Rears Its Head by Mark Beeson

TAMING THE TECH MONSTER

The US needs to recognize Somaliland before Russia does 
Michael Rubin | Washington Examiner 

  Bound to fail: Transnational jihadism and the aggregation problem
(War On The Rocks) On Aug. 22, ISIL’s leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi issued his first message to his followers in nearly a year, calling on them to carry out lone-wolf attacks in the West. 

Jonas Parello-Plesner writes: The fight in Iraq and Syria against the brutal terrorist organization Islamic State (ISIS) has been led by an unprecedented international coalition[...] Key to that effort is post-conflict stabilization through restoration of essential services and a gradual return of governance. As the U.S. National Security Strategy puts it, “instability and weak governance threaten U.S. interests.” - Hudson Institute

 Turkey Made a Bet Against Assad—And Lost
(DefenseOne) Back in 2011, Erdoğan supported the rebels against the Syrian regime in hopes of gaining influence across the Middle East. Things haven’t gone according to plan. 

China ‘Likely’ Training Bomber Pilots To Hit US, Allied Targets

 China, close to establishing its own ‘nuclear triad,’ has practiced targeting US
(Military Times) The Pentagon, for the first time, has publicly reported what commanders in the Pacific have known about, and kept a wary eye on, for some time: China is practicing long-range bombing runs against U.S. targets. 

https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/13/asia/china-xinjiang-uyghur-united-nations-intl/index.html

China is hacking the same countries it trades with
(Fifth Domain) At the United Nations headquarters in Nairobi, Kenya, bands of marauding monkeys often climb over the towering fences and roam the acres of closely mowed grass. But this June, another type of uninvited guest entered the U.N. premises.

Signs of unease with President Xi Jinping’s leadership have emerged amid public rancor over China’s trade tensions with the U.S., a sluggish economy and public-health and financial scandals. - Wall Street Journal

https://pjmedia.com/michaelledeen/how-to-fix-the-intelligence-community/

• Trump’s trade war is rattling China’s leaders

China’s leaders have sought to project confidence in the face of President Trump’s tariffs and trade threats. But as it becomes clear that a protracted trade war with the United States may be unavoidable, there are growing signs of unease inside the Communist political establishment. - New York Times

It’s all about financial conditions
BY DAVID P. GOLDMAN
The collapse in the price of industrial metals is not due to weak demand, rather, it is an expression of risk aversion

https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2018/08/analysis-2-wanted-al-qaeda-leaders-operate-in-iran.php

 Al-Shabaab’s Mata Hari network
(War On The Rocks) I recently spent several weeks in the slum districts of Nairobi, researching al-Shabaab’s criminal activities in the Horn of Africa. I expected to learn about the traditional criminal practices of terrorist groups: drugs, arms, money laundering, and perhaps even a regional particularity like sugar smuggling. What I wasn’t expecting to discover was a highly structured, hierarchical network in which sex workers sell information gleaned from their customers — specifically, corrupt police officers — to al-Shabaab. 

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2018/08/10/isthepentagonabouttohandiranamajorbordercrossing_113709.html

Russia, Iran and three others agree Caspian status, but not borders 
Iran, Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan have reached a preliminary agreement to split the Caspian Sea’s oil and gas deposits after a decadeslong dispute, allowing the seabed’s eventual opening for drilling, pipelines and lucrative energy deals. The five states have agreed to 15-mile-wide territorial waters with borders that nominally function as state boundaries, with exclusive 10-mile fishing zones nearby. The deal expressly forbids any military presence on the Caspian Sea, though issues such as delimitation and shares of respective littoral states will continue to be discussed going forward.  Read More  ​

U.S., CHINA:
U.S. Responds to China's Threats to Navy P-8A in South China Sea
By Jesse Johnson, The Japan Times: “The U.S. military had unusually strong words for Beijing over social media on Saturday after recent reports that an American reconnaissance plane had been warned to “leave immediately” during a flight near China's man-made islands in the contested South China Sea.”

CHINA: China’s New Missile Force: New Ambitions, New Challenges 
By Adam Ni & Bates Gill, China Brief: “The establishment of the PLARF signals the increasing importance of conventional and nuclear missiles to PLA warfighting and deterrence capabilities.”

All hands on deck: the Caspian sails towards Eurasia integration