EMERGING THREATS U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY - CounterStrikeMedia

US POLICY IN SOUTH EAST ASIA: 60 SECONDS & MATTIS ON GETTING OUT OF SYRIA & WHY MODI'S ECONOMY IS FAILING

8/30/2018

Southeast Asia is Pivotal, and U.S. Strategy Should Aim to Keep it That Way
By Adam Fields, Strategy Bridge: “In The Art of War, Sun Zi warns that “the general who loses a battle makes but few calculations beforehand. Thus do many calculations lead to victory, and few calculations to defeat.”

AEI

FDD

Read the full report here.

INDIA AS CHINA'S COUNTER-WEIGHT: Read the full piece here.

WHY MODI IS FAILING: Continue here.

China’s CPEC does little for India-Pakistan relations

AEI: MODI'S ECONOMY FAILING

NICARAGUA: POLICY OF STATE TORTURE

8/30/2018

The Nicaraguan authorities and paramilitary groups working with them have killed, tortured, raped and forcibly disappeared anti-government protesters, creating a climate of fear that is driving thousands of people to flee the country, the United Nations said Wednesday. - New York Times

NEW DELHI'S VIEW OF BEIJING CAN HELP D.C.

8/29/2018

T.V. Paul writes: For the foreseeable future, India will likely pursue soft balancing, limited hard balancing and diplomatic engagement with China. The limited hard balancing involves asymmetrical capability acquisition and the building of additional strength on the border and naval assets in the Indian Ocean. - War on the Rocks

Reconciling priorities in the India-U.S. relationship
(Real Clear World) The U.S-India security relationship is underpinned by a strong foundation of shared interests and ideologies. However, India’s relationships with opponents of the United States may act as a roadblock to future collaboration.

US-India 2+2 Dialogue: concerns for the whole region

China’s long game did not end at Doklam

Can India help the United States against China?
Oriana Skylar Mastro | Lawfare
Previous US presidents have tried to convince New Delhi to take on a more proactive role in balancing against China. The hope is that India’s involvement will force China to divert and thinly spread its resources, efforts, and capabilities from its eastern borders to its western borders.

How China Is Trying to Dominate the Middle East
(The National Interest) But great power competition between the two most powerful militaries and economies is not geographically limited.

WHY IS CHINA IN THE MEDITERRANEAN & "AIR BASE IN A BOX" FOR THE LONG WAR

8/27/2018

Operation Sea Shield seen as a Russian power projection
BY GIOVANNI PIGNI
Kremlin claims deployment of warships aims to deter a US or NATO strike on the Assad regime, but critics say it's a bid to deflect attention from looming offensive and to show off Russia’s growing naval muscle in the eastern Mediterranean

The U.S Navy on Friday formally reactivated the Cold War-era naval command it relied on for decades to confront adversaries in the waters off North America — the latest in a series of efforts to check Moscow's military expansion. - Politico

President Trump’s “Space Force” proposal would help prevent the U.S. energy grid from going dark in an emergency or an attack, NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine said in an exclusive interview with the Washington Examiner. - Washington Examiner

If the U.S. Air Force finds itself in a conflict with Russia, it won’t be able to simply rely on its major operating hubs in Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom. So it’s getting more expeditionary thanks to a new “air base in a box” that will enable the service to rapidly move to a partner nation’s airfield, set up a squadron and begin flying combat missions. - Defense News

General Dynamics NASSCO in San Diego and BAE Systems Norfolk have both received roughly $147 million contracts to modernize the cruisers Cowpens and Gettysburg, which have been in layup since Fall of 2015. - Defense News

Editorial: By the middle of the 21st century, ground forces will employ tens of thousands of robots, and the decisions of human commanders will be shaped by artificial intelligence; trends in technology and warfare make this a near certainty. The military organizations of the United States and its allies and partners must plan now for this new era of warfare. - Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments

Will there be a sea change in the Middle East?

WHY ETHIOPIA MATTERS; LAND REFORM IN SOUTH AFRICA & TRANS-SAHEL MOVES ON

8/27/2018

Emily Estelle's: WHY ETHIOPIA MATTERS

Russia is the latest world power eyeing the Horn of Africa
(Quartz) Russia is joining the list of nations intent on establishing their foothold in the Red Sea. In a meeting with Eritrean leaders on Friday (Aug. 31), foreign minister Sergey Lavrov announced plans to establish a “logistics center” at a port in the East African nation.

South African farmers have demanded Donald Trump "leave us the hell alone" after the US president criticised the country's land reform plans, accusing him of trying to deflect attention from his own scandals. - Agence France-Presse

Emmerson Mnangagwa was officially sworn in as president of Zimbabwe on Sunday after winning a bitterly contested election that marked the country's first vote since Robert Mugabe was ousted from power. - Agence France-Presse

Judd Devermont writes: This surge in foreign attention presents new opportunities and challenges for sub-Saharan Africa. Equally important, it risks undercutting U.S. influence if the United States passively stands on the sidelines. - Center for Strategic and International Studies

CHINESE TRADE DELEGATION FAILS, XI JINPING EXPANDS INTERNATIONALLY

8/27/2018

The U.S.’s trade war with China is about to get uglier. After a long, hot summer spent weighing risks and firing warning shots, the hawks in President Donald Trump’s administration have gained the upper hand -- and they’re set to unleash a fall offensive. - Bloomberg

From medical products to smartphone chips to soybeans, Beijing is responding to President Donald Trump’s tariff hikes by pushing companies to trade more with other countries. But there are few substitutes for the United States as an export market and source of technology for industries including telecom equipment makers Chinese leaders are eager to develop. - Associated Press
China is laying the groundwork to establish naval outposts in strategic locations around the United States, according to a senior Republican lawmaker. - Washington Examiner

Editorial: Even though a United Nations official has criticized the abuses, few countries have confronted China. As it has become an economic powerhouse, countries hungry for better relationships with Beijing, especially as the U.S. pushes its trade war, are willing to turn a blind eye to even the worst abuses. - Washington Examiner

Patrick M. Cronin writes: The escalating U.S.-China trade war reflects a hardening strategic competition between two major powers, not merely tense negotiations for short-term political gains. - Center for a New American Security

Stephanie Segal, Ann Listerud, and Jack Caporal write: Public hearings on the next tranche of Chinese imports subject to tariffs are ongoing, making further escalation a very real possibility. At the same time, official talks between the two sides have resumed, suggesting a possible path toward de-escalation. The coming weeks and months may mark a potential decision point in the bilateral trade war. - Center for Strategic and International Studies

WHO LOST SOUTH KOREA & LATIN AMERICA, DANIEL PIPES EXAMINES HISTORY OF BAD SOCIALIST IDEAS

8/24/2018

DANIEL PIPES

THE ARCHAIC MINDSET OF CHINESE LEADERSHIP

8/24/2018

PROJECT SYNDICATE
XI JINPING CONSOLIDATES POWER

BUSINESS INSIDER
THE UK GUARDIAN

U.S. LEADERSHIP REVEALS THAT RUSSIA IS STUCK IN SYRIA & AFRICA

8/23/2018

Russia signed a military co-operation agreement with the Central African Republic (CAR) on 21 August, aiming to facilitate expanded training for CAR’s armed forces. The Russia-CAR military agreement follows the United Nations Security Council’s decision in December 2017 to grant Russia an exemption to the arms embargo on CAR. - IHS Jane's

Joost Hiltermann writes: Seven years into the war in Syria, as Turkey struggles to shield itself from the destabilizing spillover of regional turmoil, Erdoğan’s bet on the Arab world looks increasingly like a losing one. A Syria at war has become the graveyard for any dreams of the neo-Ottoman grandeur he may have nurtured. - The Atlantic

Aaron Stein writes: But the nature of its fall, whether it goes down in a violent cataclysm that spreads refugees and jihadists across the region or whether its leaders are able to peacefully negotiate its re-entry into Syria, is far from certain. The outcome will depend largely on the interaction between Russia and Turkey, the two most influential external actors in Idlib. - War on the Rocks

Africa. >>>

Russia Moves Further into Africa

What happened: This week, the Russian Ministry of Defense struck a deal on military cooperation with the Central African Republic and Burkina Faso. The agreement states that Russian specialists will help train the Central African military—both on the ground and in Russian military schools. In Burkina Faso, Russia will cooperate on the joint training of troops, peacekeeping, and the fight against terrorism.

The agreement comes just weeks after three Russian journalists were murdered in the CAR while investigating the Wagner Group, a Russian private military company.
Russia currently provides military assistance to the CAR with the consent of the UN Security Council. A UN military contingent is stationed in CAR, and U.S. and French military bases exist in Burkina Faso.
In March, the Russian Foreign Ministry announced that it was sending five militaryand 170 civilian instructors to train the armed forces in the CAR, as well as ammunition to its army—it has also struck military agreements with other African nations, some of which have continued since the nineties. [RBC]

What it means:

Dmitry Bondarenko, Institute of African Studies: Russia is unlikely to earn money by selling weapons to these countries, which can’t afford Russian arms. But Russia can benefit from access to natural resources, particularly uranium and precious metals.
There is also an international embargo imposed on the CAR, meaning that Russia must gain special permission from the UN in order to send military property to the country. [RBC]
Vadim Zaitzev, Andrei Maslov, Yulia Timofeeva, Africa experts: The murder of the Russian journalists in the CAR raises questions about what Russia is doing in the country and what its objectives are. But Russia has no major business interests and isn’t playing a “geopolitical game” there yet.
The CAR is one of the poorest countries in the world, marred by political instability, and lacking in strategic importance as a landlocked country, though its diamond and gold mines have attracted foreign companies.
Russia’s role is exaggerated because it is convenient, especially for Western nations, to paint the country as an opponent. While in the long term, Russia’s presence in the CAR could transform into a political project in the context of BRICS, for now, it’s a simple business story. [Carnegie.ru]

Trump Adviser Bolton Says Russia 'Stuck' in Syria, Iran Must Leave
By Dan Williams, Reuters: “Russia is “stuck” in Syria and looking for others to fund post-war reconstruction there, U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton said, describing this as an opportunity for Washington to press for Iranian forces to quit the country.”

WHY CHINA DOES NOT DOMINATE SOUTH EAST ASIA

8/23/2018

Does China really dominate Southeast Asia?
BY DAVID HUTT
Widespread reports of China's hegemony over the neighboring region miss the nuance of fast-shifting political and strategic dynamics

EGYPT'S BEST ECONOMY IN 10 YEARS & TURKISH EXPANSION INTO AFRICA CONTINUES

8/22/2018

Why Erdogan's so quiet about Turkish expansion in Africa
It seems out of character for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to be so tight-lipped about Turkey's growing investments and influence in Africa, but he's certain to have a reason.

Egyptian economy hits highest growth rate in 10 years
Egypt has hit its highest economic growth rate in a decade, but experts disagree about what it means for high prices in the country.

NAILING ANSARI: AL-QAEDA'S BEST BOMB MAKER KILLED

8/22/2018

THE GEO-ECONOMICS OF CHINESE PIRACY & U.S. POLICY TO WRECK IT

8/22/2018

China Rises, America Falters, and Geoeconomics Rears Its Head by Mark Beeson

TAMING THE TECH MONSTER

NIGERIA GOES ROGUE & WHY U.S. NEEDS TO RECOGNIZE SOMALIA BEFORE RUSSIA DOES

8/20/2018

The US needs to recognize Somaliland before Russia does
Michael Rubin | Washington Examiner

Bound to fail: Transnational jihadism and the aggregation problem
(War On The Rocks) On Aug. 22, ISIL’s leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi issued his first message to his followers in nearly a year, calling on them to carry out lone-wolf attacks in the West.

Jonas Parello-Plesner writes: The fight in Iraq and Syria against the brutal terrorist organization Islamic State (ISIS) has been led by an unprecedented international coalition[...] Key to that effort is post-conflict stabilization through restoration of essential services and a gradual return of governance. As the U.S. National Security Strategy puts it, “instability and weak governance threaten U.S. interests.” - Hudson Institute

TURKEY SEEKS TO PLAY AMERICA OFF RUSSIA

8/20/2018

Turkey Made a Bet Against Assad—And Lost
(DefenseOne) Back in 2011, Erdoğan supported the rebels against the Syrian regime in hopes of gaining influence across the Middle East. Things haven’t gone according to plan.

HARD BREXIT ON ARRIVAL

8/20/2018

NY SUN

GUARDIAN

Why Brexit Makes Irish Departure from EU More Likely
Anthony Coughlan, CapX

CONCENTRATION CAMPS RETURN TO CHINA & BEIJING TRAINS BOMBER PILOTS

8/16/2018

China ‘Likely’ Training Bomber Pilots To Hit US, Allied Targets

China, close to establishing its own ‘nuclear triad,’ has practiced targeting US
(Military Times) The Pentagon, for the first time, has publicly reported what commanders in the Pacific have known about, and kept a wary eye on, for some time: China is practicing long-range bombing runs against U.S. targets.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/13/asia/china-xinjiang-uyghur-united-nations-intl/index.html

China is hacking the same countries it trades with
(Fifth Domain) At the United Nations headquarters in Nairobi, Kenya, bands of marauding monkeys often climb over the towering fences and roam the acres of closely mowed grass. But this June, another type of uninvited guest entered the U.N. premises.

CHINA FLAILING, TRUMP WINNING TRADE WAR

8/16/2018

Signs of unease with President Xi Jinping’s leadership have emerged amid public rancor over China’s trade tensions with the U.S., a sluggish economy and public-health and financial scandals. - Wall Street Journal

RUSSIA & CHINA HELP NORTH KOREA GO NUCLEAR

8/16/2018

FDD

North Korea Gets By With A Little Help From Its Friends: Russia And China
by Thomas H. Henriksen via The Hill
What happened to U.S. plans to denuclearize North Korea since the high-profile Singapore summit? A recent report from the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test Ban Treaty Organization casts doubt on Pyongyang’s denuclearization steps.

Evelyn N. Farkas and James M. Ludes write: The Russian government has one overriding objective with regard to the United States: to weaken America so that it loses its will and ability to counter Russian objectives, including establishing a sphere of influence in eastern Europe. To that end, the Kremlin actively exploits and deepens political, cultural, economic, racial, and other societal rifts in America. If Americans are fighting one another, they are less likely to notice, much less press, the government to block Russian action in places like Ukraine, Georgia, or Syria. - The Atlantic

MICHAEL LEDEEN: SHUT DOWN CIA & FBI

8/15/2018

https://pjmedia.com/michaelledeen/how-to-fix-the-intelligence-community/

TRUMP'S TRADE WAR RATTLES CHINA

8/15/2018

Trump’s trade war is rattling China’s leaders

China’s leaders have sought to project confidence in the face of President Trump’s tariffs and trade threats. But as it becomes clear that a protracted trade war with the United States may be unavoidable, there are growing signs of unease inside the Communist political establishment. - New York Times

It’s all about financial conditions
BY DAVID P. GOLDMAN
The collapse in the price of industrial metals is not due to weak demand, rather, it is an expression of risk aversion

HINDU TERROR NETWORK ARRESTED

8/14/2018

Arrests lead to Hindutva terror network, say authorities
BY VARSHA TORGALKAR
The arrest of Vaibhav Raut in the state of Maharashtra led the Anti-Terrorism Squad to a large haul of arms and explosives

Pan-India opposition unity remains a dream

9/11 AGENTS STILL LIVING IN IRAN & THE MATA HARI NETWORK IN EAST ASIA

8/14/2018

https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2018/08/analysis-2-wanted-al-qaeda-leaders-operate-in-iran.php

Al-Shabaab’s Mata Hari network
(War On The Rocks) I recently spent several weeks in the slum districts of Nairobi, researching al-Shabaab’s criminal activities in the Horn of Africa. I expected to learn about the traditional criminal practices of terrorist groups: drugs, arms, money laundering, and perhaps even a regional particularity like sugar smuggling. What I wasn’t expecting to discover was a highly structured, hierarchical network in which sex workers sell information gleaned from their customers — specifically, corrupt police officers — to al-Shabaab.

UNFINISHED, UNSEEN WARS EMERGING & the caspian eurasian integration

8/12/2018

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2018/08/10/isthepentagonabouttohandiranamajorbordercrossing_113709.html

Russia, Iran and three others agree Caspian status, but not borders
Iran, Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan have reached a preliminary agreement to split the Caspian Sea’s oil and gas deposits after a decadeslong dispute, allowing the seabed’s eventual opening for drilling, pipelines and lucrative energy deals. The five states have agreed to 15-mile-wide territorial waters with borders that nominally function as state boundaries, with exclusive 10-mile fishing zones nearby. The deal expressly forbids any military presence on the Caspian Sea, though issues such as delimitation and shares of respective littoral states will continue to be discussed going forward. Read More 

U.S., CHINA:
U.S. Responds to China's Threats to Navy P-8A in South China Sea
By Jesse Johnson, The Japan Times: “The U.S. military had unusually strong words for Beijing over social media on Saturday after recent reports that an American reconnaissance plane had been warned to “leave immediately” during a flight near China's man-made islands in the contested South China Sea.”

CHINA: China’s New Missile Force: New Ambitions, New Challenges
By Adam Ni & Bates Gill, China Brief: “The establishment of the PLARF signals the increasing importance of conventional and nuclear missiles to PLA warfighting and deterrence capabilities.”

All hands on deck: the Caspian sails towards Eurasia integration

RUSSIA WORRIES ABOUT ITS SOUTHERN TIER

8/12/2018