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EMERGING THREAT ASSESSMENT
GLOBAL STRIKE MEDIA.COM 
NORTH AMERICA 

ISRAEL AT WAR:  TARGET IRAN AND ITS REGIONAL PROXIES

8/28/2019

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Israel's New Existential Challenge
By Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen, September 4, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The creation of an Iranian military/terrorist axis along Israel’s northern and southern borders, comprising Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad, lays the groundwork for the long-term multi-frontal attrition of the Jewish state.

Continue to full article ->
Stop Indulging Javad Zarif
​
There’s nothing ‘moderate’ about the Iranian foreign minister, who is now threatening our think tank.
Countering and courting Iran: Israeli-Palestinian objectives in Iraq
Israel has reportedly expanded its operations against Iran in the Middle East. In July, Israeli and foreign media attributed airstrikes on Iranian targets near Baghdad to Israel. Last week, U.S. officials confirmed that Israel was responsible for the attacks, which mark the first such air raids on Iraq since 1981, when Tel Aviv destroyed Saddam Hussein’s Osirak nuclear reactor. 

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Tipping Point? Israel Strikes To Intensify Against Iranian Targets Across Mid East 
Israeli intelligence has been following the shipments from Iran, watching Iranian operatives from the time they crossed to border and, at the right moment, attacked them. Cargo unloaded from Iranian cargo planes in Syria that landed in Damascus was destroyed only minutes after leaving the airport.
Israel zeroes in on Iran’s Soleimani
 Recent Israeli attacks in Syria and Lebanon sent a clear message to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad: Syria won’t be reconstructed as long as it harbors Iranian proxies.
​The Iran-Israel War Is Here by Jonathan Spyer
The Wall Street Journal
August 28, 2019

https://www.meforum.org/59243/the-iran-israel-war-is-here 
Action must be taken to address new information on Iran’s breaches of nuclear accords
Olli Heinonen | Senior Advisor on Science and Nonproliferation
Iran sees growing dividends from support for Yemen’s Houthis
Behnam Ben Taleblu — Axios
Iran’s partnership with the Houthi rebels in Yemen — heralded this week by a hardline Iranian newspaper as “the battle of destiny in the south” — has become one of its most successful campaigns across the Middle East. Why it matters. At surprisingly little cost to Tehran, the Houthis have waged a drawn-out war straining the coffers and reputation of Saudi Arabia, Iran’s main regional rival. The conflict has also afforded Tehran a foothold on the Arabian... Read More
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WHY US HAS ALLIANCES ABROAD & BOJO GOES TO THE QUEEN

8/22/2019

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Brexit: The Court vs. the QueenEditorial of The New York Sun | September 24, 2019
https://www.nysun.com/editorials/brexit-the-court-vs-the-queen/90844/
Britain's Supreme Court began its judgment recalling Parliament by claiming it wasn't about Brexit. The question, said the court president, Baroness Hale, was just about whether Prime Minister Johnson's request to Elizabeth II that Parliament should be prorogued was lawful. Not, the judge averred, "about when and on what terms the United Kingdom is to leave the European Union."
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Boris Johnson Throws Away the Scabbard By CONRAD BLACK, Special to the Sun | August 31, 2019
https://www.nysun.com/foreign/boris-johnsonthrows-away-the-scabbard/90815/
Our So-Called Foreign Policy: America’s Asian Alliances Have Become More Dangerous Than Ever by Alan Tonelson
Brexit: Boris Turns to the Queen Editorial of The New York Sun | August 28, 2019
https://www.nysun.com/editorials/brexit-boris-turns-to-the-queen/90811/
Prime Minister Boris Johnson's plan to suspend Parliament to protect Britain's decision to leave Europe is being set down by furious opponents as, in the words of one former chancellor, "profoundly undemocratic." Yet it's hard to think of a jibe more hypocritical. For Mr. Johnson seeks to redeem a Brexit referendum that is one of the great acts of direct democracy in the history of modern politics.
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​Bumpy Ride Lies Ahead for Brexit By STEPHEN MacLEAN, Special to the Sun | August 31, 2019
https://www.nysun.com/foreign/bumpy-ride-lies-ahead-for-brexit/90814/
Donald Trump’s presidency represents a real-time experiment in the durability of the US-led international order and the national security decision-making process. In a Bloomberg op-ed, Hal Brands points out that Trump’s two longest-serving national security advisers have pursued different approaches to decision-making, showing that American presidents ultimately get the decision-making system they want — but not necessarily the one they, and the country, need. Learn more here.
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SYRIAN KURDS IN TURKISH CROSSHAIRS, PUTIN IS A DICTATOR FOR 20 YEARS THE ANNIVERSARY & HOW MOSCOW PLAYS ISTANBUL

8/19/2019

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The emptiness of Turkey’s complaints against Syrian Kurds 
Michael Rubin | Washington Examiner
Putin Plays Erdogan Like a Fiddle
Putin's 20th Anniversary as the Leader of Russia
By Emil Avdaliani, August 30, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Vladimir Putin’s government might be proud of many internal as well as foreign achievements, but strategically, Russia has fallen well behind the West. Putin is partly to blame, though titanic shifts in world politics and Russian history have dwarfed his ability to influence events. Russia’s geography and poverty also limit his ability to pull off grand reforms inside the country.
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The U.S. Presence in Syria Blocks Iranian, Russian, and Turkish Gains by Seth Frantzman
The Daily Beast
August 23, 2019

https://www.meforum.org/59223/us-syria-presence-blocks-iranian-gains
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/turkeys-rising-wave-of-social-protests
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https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/growing-anti-syrian-sentiment-in-turkey
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https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/syria-safe-zone-can-help-turkey-come-to-terms-with-the-pkk-and-yp
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-07/turkey-s-akar-says-syria-talks-with-u-s-were-positive-anadolu       
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https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/08/turkey-agree-set-syria-safe-zone-operation-centre-190807140235933.html     
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https://warontherocks.com/2019/08/the-crisis-is-coming-syria-and-the-end-of-the-u-s-turkish-alliance/   
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https://twitter.com/USEmbassyTurkey/status/1159101377764843520/photo/1    
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https://sethfrantzman.com/2019/08/07/turkeys-gambit-on-syria-pays-off-as-washington-discusses-peace-corridor/
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​https://nationalinterest.org/blog/middle-east-watch/syria-safe-zone-will-create-more-problems-it-solves-72961
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THE NEXT GENERATION OF JIHADI GROUPS, AL-QAEDA ROUNDS UP ANTI-ASSAD GROUPS & THE FRENCH REVEAL ALL ABOUT ABU NIDAL

8/16/2019

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What Will Drive the Next Generation of Salafi-Jihadis?
Continued economic stagnation and a high youth unemployment rate, exacerbated by the Muslim youth bulge, could lead to failed expectations and spur radicalization among disenchanted Gen Z Muslims. And this cohort's familiarity with the internet could foreshadow an adaptive, tech-savvy terrorist threat. Read more »
Al Qaeda’s senior leadership reinvigorated its effort​ to unite anti-Assad groups into a single military force in northwest Syria after Russia enabled the regime of Syrian President Bashar al Assad to break a months-long stalemate in northwest Syria in August 2019. Greater cooperation between two separate al Qaeda–linked operations rooms in Idlib may indicate these forces will attempt to implement this directive despite a long history of failed attempts to unify.

Read more on the al Qaeda Global Tracker here.
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RUSSIA'S NUCLEAR TIPPED CRUISE MISSLE BLOWS UP

8/16/2019

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The Mysterious Explosion of a Russian Nuclear Missile Engine
By Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Raphael Ofek, September 6, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The fatal explosion that occurred recently during testing of the Russian Burevestnik nuclear cruise missile raises many questions. Could it have been avoided? Was it a fundamental failure of the ambitious armaments plan declared by President Putin in 2018? Whatever the answers to these questions, the renewed trend toward an unconventional armaments race could deteriorate into a second Cold War.

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THIS IS HOW CHINA LOSES HONG KONG & HOW HONG KONG KEEPS THE MORAL HIGH GROUND

8/16/2019

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August 28, 2019 | The Washington Times
Hong Kong has a right to self-determination
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PROTESTS IN 11 TIMES ZONES SACK THE RUSSIAN REGIME

8/10/2019

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WHY ENDLESS WARS CAN'T BE ENDED & ISRAEL'S EVOLVING FRONT WITH IRAN

8/9/2019

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Why endless wars can’t be ended
​
There’s no chance America’s enemies will leave us in peace.Clifford D. May | Founder & President
TEHRAN AND TEL AVIV’S EVOLVING MULTIFRONT WAR
 
Forecast:  The Iranian regime may attack or threaten Israeli interests in coming weeks to deter perceived Israeli aggression. Tel Aviv launched an air campaign against Iran in Iraq and will also participate in the US-led maritime security mission in the Persian Gulf, Operation Sentinel. Tehran considers both efforts significant security threats and will adjust its approach to rising tensions with the US and Israel accordingly. Recent meetings between the regime and Iranian-backed groups may indicate that Iran is planning a military response or contingencies to respond to future Israeli attacks.

Read more here.
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INDIA CHANGES KASHMIR STATUS & HOW TO UNDERSTAND INDIA'S POLITICAL ECONOMY

8/8/2019

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the_dueling_narratives_of_india’s_kashmir_crackdown_-_the_atlantic.pdf
File Size: 712 kb
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MYTHS ON KASHMIR
Modi’s decision on Kashmir reveals a brittleness in India
Sadanand Dhume | The Atlantic 
If Narendra Modi's Kashmir decision is a portent for India's future, it's time to start worrying.
A Look Into the Islamic State-Khorasan 
by Paul Lushenko, Weeda Mehran, Craig Whiteside, and Theo Farrell
BBC
India Ends Special Status for Only Muslim-Majority Territory
 The Washington Post  BBC  Times of India
Pakistan prepares to fight India for Kashmir  
Max Frost | The National Interest
 
ASIA TIMES:  INDIA'S DYNASTIES
INDIAN FEDERALISM SPLITS
WHAT THE NEW STATUS MEANS
RIYADH & NEW DELHI FOSTER OIL TIES
Kashmir's Democracy--and the World's
Prime Minister Narendra Modi just changed the status of the restive Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir. This may be the most important event in an enormously volatile part of the world since the end of the last century, with repercussions that will extend far beyond Kashmir itself. 
Read more »
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s decision to void a constitutional provision that gave the country’s only Muslim-majority province a measure of autonomy from New Delhi has clear regional ramifications. In an Atlantic op-ed, Sadanand Dhume writes that while the regional ramifications are noteworthy, the domestic implications of Modi’s action may prove more significant.  Finish here.
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    Peering into crystal ball; future of war
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    salafi-jihadi-ecosystem-in-the-sahel.pdf
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    BEYOND COUNTER-TERRORISM
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    HOW THE SALIFI-JIHADI MOVEMENT IS WINNING
    beyond-counterterrorism.pdf
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