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TURKEY HOLDS MEETING WITH HAMAS DELEGATION

8/24/2020

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JPost’s Seth J. Frantzman: Turkey’s Erdogan hosts large Hamas delegation with wanted terrorist
With U.S. backing, Iraq pushes for energy rapprochement with Saudis
Seth J. Frantzman writes: At the same time, Arab tribes on the other side of the Euphrates have been protesting against the US-backed SDF in recent weeks. Is ISIS stirring up discontent among the tribes? Or is the Syrian regime’s long hand at work, destabilizing areas on one side of the Euphrates, only to find out that ISIS exploited this power vacuum as well? – Jerusalem Post
Sean Durns writes: By the late 1980s and early 1990s, usage of the term “West Bank” became more widespread at the Times and other outlets — and with it, the implied notion that “West Bank” means “Palestinian” and that the land was, and always had been, Arab. But according to many in the press, the land could not — it must not — ever be held to be Jewish. It can be Jordanian. It can be Palestinian. But Jews’ claims to their ancestral homeland are to be erased or minimized. – Algemeiner
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Hany Ghoraba writes: The historic peace between the UAE and Israel may help reopen the doors to a sustainable peace in the Middle East. Countries such as Bahrain, Oman, and possibly Sudan are open to the idea of normalization of relations with Israel. The deal, however, has exposed the disingenuous nature of the anti-peace Islamist camp. Their reactions show they care much less about attaining peace or the fate of Palestinians than about imposing their agenda and settling political scores. – Algemeiner
Ari Cicurel writes: Finally, the United States lacks a Special Envoy for the Eastern Mediterranean that can focus on negotiating a solution to the Libya civil war. Ending the flow of arms into Libya should be the immediate priority. American leadership is crucial as a dangerous arms race brews in the Eastern Mediterranean. Without it, Turkey is currently the biggest winner and regional stability, the clear loser. – Breaking Defense
Simon Henderson writes: In political terms, General Bajwa is more powerful than Prime Minister Khan, whose 2018 electoral victory is often credited to the fact that the military disliked the other candidates and backed him. The general’s main lever in dealing with Riyadh is his control over security and nuclear policy. But recent reports suggest that although Pakistan may have offered the Saudis nuclear assistance years ago, China now dominates this role. Any future Saudi willingness to back Islamabad’s policies on Kashmir and other issues may also be tempered by Riyadh’s desire to ease the India-Pakistan nuclear rivalry. – Washington Institute
The head of the Mossad spy agency reportedly met with a senior Sudanese official in a meeting organized and hosted by the United Arab Emirates, Arabic media reports said Friday. – Times of Israel
In the Marine Corps’ new concept of expeditionary advanced base operations, its forces disperse light, agile units with a small footprint over a wide area while working jointly with naval forces to counter and fight a credible enemy threat in a multi-domain contested environment. To prepare for that real-world mission, disparate squadrons and battalions that often don’t train together must integrate to exercise as a Marine air-ground task force (MAGTF). – USNI News
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Douglas Birkey writes: The DoD should be commended for pursuing new war-fighting concepts. The nation faces serious challenges that require sincere change. However, fundamental to these decisions are hard conversations regarding what yields the most relevant combat power per dollar. Each capability must earn its way into the operational plan. This begins with cost-per-effect analysis — measuring what it takes to get the job done. It is not a time when the nation can afford to pursue “every kid gets a trophy” approach — nor will future defense budget constraints allow it. – Defense News
Kabul in 1979, Minsk in 2020?
By Lev Stesin, August 23, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Alexander Lukashenko’s days as the autocratic president of Belarus are clearly numbered, and Russia will likely play a key role in his exit. What is less clear is just how that exit will come about and what role the neighbor to the East will play. Recent history provides us with a few possible scenarios.

Continue to full article ->
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CHINA PHASE ONE DEAD & READING ECONOMIC TRENDS

8/22/2020

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China’s telecom firms in the US are in trouble  By Stephen Bryen
An influential US Senate subcommittee, the Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, has issued a strongly negative report about Chinese telecoms operating in the United States. While the subcommittee stopped short of saying the Chinese telecom companies should be removed from the US telecoms market, the report is tilted strongly in that direction. Read More
Read More
Read More
Read More  US. vs.  CHINA writes Dilip Hiro
writes David Goldman.

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Few Americans did, which is why it’s worth telling the story of how Saudi, Emirati and Qatari money flooded the nation’s capital and, in the process, American policy went down for the count. Read More
Saudi Arabia Isn't Just Raising Taxes’: For autocratic regimes, increasing taxes could put their survival at risk.
Political dynamics rapidly changing in Pakistan  By Imad Zafar
Change is the only constant in the world, whereas stagnation leads to the death of a society. Ever since 2014 when a sit-in led by Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) was held against the elected government of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), the country has been going through a period of stagnation. Read More
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Phase one is a failure
Zack Cooper and Derek Scissors | RealClearWorld
The phase one trade deal with China is on its last legs. The question should be what comes next. The best answer is targeted retaliation to deter China's predatory economic and security behavior.
Reading the inflation tea leaves
Paul H. Kupiec | AEIdeas
Depending on how you interpret recent data on inflation, it might be premature to dismiss the possibility that problematic inflation may soon return.
Blame It on the Blob? How to Evaluate American Grand Strategy by Francis J. Gavin
When You’re Outnumbered: Lessons from Two British Masters of Irregular Warfare by Christopher D. Booth
Net Assessment: Time to Rethink U.S. Policy Toward Putin’s Russia? with Zack Cooper, Melanie Marlowe, and Christopher Preble 
  • AEI’s Michael Rubin: US policy and Erdogan
  • Bloomberg’s Eli Lake: Israel’s new friendship with the UAE will come at a cost
  • AEI’s Michael Rubin: US policy and Erdogan
  • Bloomberg’s Eli Lake: Israel’s new friendship with the UAE will come at a cost
Eva Kahan writes: Major tribal leaders in eastern Syria may break away from the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which would severely jeopardize the anti-ISIS mission by fracturing the US partner force in Syria.  […]Tribal animosity toward the SDF has been building since mid-2019 due to the combined pressures of overlapping ISIS and pro-regime insurgencies as well as the SDF’s weak and under-resourced governance. The continued presence of SDF and coalition forces in Deir ez-Zour could become untenable if the SDF fails to find a compromise with increasingly fractured tribal elements. – Institute for the Study of War
Michael Rubin writes: The danger has never been higher. With Washington distracted, Trump unpredictable, and Europe susceptible to Erdogan’s cynical refugee blackmail, Erdogan may believe that the time is now to seize Kastellorizo and other Greek islands. Should Trump lose, he may see the final weeks of his presidency as the best chance to act. Neither Trump nor Biden is ready; let us hope Greece is. Either way, a need to respond to war in the Eastern Mediterranean may soon grow to overshadow both the Trump and potentially Biden legacies. – Kathimerini
Amos Gilad writes: The only way to maintain peace and long-term stability in the region is for Israel to prevent the sale of American-made F-35 fighter jets to any other Middle Eastern state, regardless of current or future relations. – Ynet
Bobby Ghosh writes: In either case, they have been making alternative arrangements to deal with the Iranian menace. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have both been splurging on the latest military hardware from the U.S. and Europe — and even China and Russia. And the new Emirati agreement with Israel was inspired in no small part by a desire to box in the Islamic Republic. The best the Trump administration can expect from its Arab allies if the snapback gambit fails is quiet commiseration. – Bloomberg

Yousef Al Otaiba writes: In the most tumultuous place on earth, the UAE and Israel will now try to defy this fate. […]This week, the gate was opened. And together, Emiratis and Israelis will now step through it. Like all journeys, there will be discovery and difficulty. At times, we may even argue about the direction. But the destination is as clear and as certain as ever – a more peaceful, prosperous and hopeful Middle East. – Ynet
Sarah Feuer writes: Whether the Egyptian government manages to elevate such reformist voices and develop a convincing alternative to Al-Azhar’s brand of conservatism remains to be seen. If it succeeds, however, it would likely bolster Egypt’s stability and advance the broader regional battle between moderate and extremist streams of Islamic thought—two outcomes in which Washington has a clear interest. Sisi’s government deserves much criticism for its human rights abuses and abysmal record on upholding basic democratic principles. But in the arena of religious reform, growing state control could be a step in the right direction. – Washington Institute
William Morrissey and John Givens write: The United States should adopt a national strategy on standardization to advance its own interests — not because China already has one, and not as a counterpunch to Beijing. While China Standards 2035 is likely to be ambitious, it will not cover the gamut of rapidly transforming technologies. A defensive U.S. response could be undermined by the global rejection of efforts to simply keep China out. Any strategy should be focused on enhancing U.S. advantages and protecting the existing model. Standardization’s openness is both its success and its vulnerability. Ensuring that it remains open is a necessity. – War on the Rocks
Hal Brands writes: We sometimes think of the U.S.-China competition as a fundamentally different kind of great-power contest, one whose outcome will be determined more by control of data than by control of strategic terrain. Yet it is also an old-fashioned military rivalry, with all the perils that entails. It would be catastrophic if the free world were to lose Taiwan. It might also be hard, costly and dangerous to keep it. – Bloomberg
Terrorists in the Sahel region of Africa are poised to take advantage of uncertainty in the American defense posture following a recent Defense Department announcement, but U.S. Africa Command shored up partners with a military equipment donation to Niger on Friday. – Washington Examiner ​
Maj. Gen. Matthew G. Glavy and Brett Goldstein write: This project should shape not only future Marine Corps efforts, but future Department of Defense projects for years to come. The team demonstrated a cost-effective, iterative procedure that can quickly field a precise capability needed to accomplish a task. Now is time to empower military talent to build the modern software development capabilities the Pentagon so desperately needs. There is much work to be done. – War on the Rocks
New era dawns for China’s next-gen submarine  By Dave Makichuk
Has the Chinese Navy moved a step closer to the next generation of powerful nuclear submarines, matching the US and the Russians in the global game of deadly deterrence? According to a report in Forbes magazine, new evidence at the Bohai shipyard in China points to big things ahead for the Chinese Navy. Read More
China’s energy weakness will lose the New Cold War  By Tim Daiss
Imagine: A Chinese-flagged super tanker bound for the mainland has just turned off its automatic identification system to hide an Iranian oil shipment in violation of US sanctions. Read More
Kazakhstan holds the secret for Greater Eurasia  By Pepe Escobar
The no-holds-barred US-China strategic competition may be leading us to the complete fragmentation of the current “world-system,” as American sociologist and economic historian Immanuel Wallerstein defined it. Read More
The man who drove the US out of Afghanistan
By Fazelminallah Qazizai 
The first time Mullah Ibrahim Sadar confronted US forces in Afghanistan he was given a lesson in the brutal reality of war that he would never forget. To those who later watched him rise through the Taliban’s ranks and win the respect of al-Qaeda’s inner circle, his sense of purpose was evident even then.
Dollar’s pain not yet the yuan’s gain
 
By William Pesek
As markets fret about the stability of US President Donald Trump’s dollar, more attention should be focused on why China’s currency is still so unready for prime time. Has there been a better moment, as Sino-US tensions explode, for the yuan to take its rightful place as among the world’s top two unit of exchange than now?
A cheaper, faster way to nuclear fusion
By Jonathan Tennenbaum
One of the most notable features of Eric Lerner’s approach to fusion using the Dense Plasma Focus (DPF), presented in Part 1 and Part 2 of this series, lies in the possibility of using hydrogen and boron as a fuel. This property is shared by the hydrogen-boron laser fusion reactor, which I discussed in a previous series of articles in Asia Times.
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GERMANY REMAINS UN-AMERICAN, CENTCOM GETS SURPRISE & IRAQI PM GOES TO WHITE HOUSE WITH OIL; AFRICAN COUPS CONTINUE IN THE SAHEL

8/20/2020

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Erdoğan Needs New Enemies  by Burak Bekdil 
Goodbye - Sort Of - To Germany?
by Victor Davis Hanson via National Review
Why should America anchor Germany's defense? It cuts deals with Russia, has never met its NATO commitment, and is the most anti-American nation in Europe.
Haftar to allow limited Libya oil exports to ease power gap
Since its formation in 2009, the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps – Intelligence Organisation (IRGC-IO) has gained increasing dominance over the domestic security sphere in Iran. Under the direct control of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, it has targeted officials, journalists, lawyers, activists, and dual nationals, severely undermining the policies and status of successive elected governments. In doing so, it has encroached upon, and in many respects sidelined, the government’s Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS). – Jane’s 360 
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Seth J. Frantzman writes: Minister of Defense Amir Hatami said that in the field of missiles Iran has reached real deterrent power. He argued that now Iran’s missiles can reach 2,000 km and that this new Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis missile can reach 1,000 km. In solid fuel missiles Iran also says it has a range up to 1,400 with other missiles. It is not clear if these boasts have been proven but Iran did use ballistic missiles to target the US in Iraq in January and has targeted ISIS in Syria. […]This shows Iran has reached sophisticated levels of missile and drone production. It also used cruise missiles against Saudi Arabia last year, coordinating the attack with drones. Not all the cruise missiles made it to their targets.- Jerusalem Post
Toward A World Free From Nuclear Weapons
by James Goodby via PolicyEd
Achieving a nuclear-free world starts with a joint effort from nuclear-capable countries to mitigate the factors that drive nations to possess these weapons.
Gen. Frank McKenzie said troop reductions in Iraq have forced the remaining Americans into a defensive crouch against continued Iranian-backed militia attacks. It's enough to do the job, with Iraqis, he said, but it's preventing the U.S. from pursuing ISIS. Iran is now the CENTCOM chief's top focus, signaling a shift in policy and the times. Recall that, here.
"Five U.S. firms including Chevron Corp signed agreements on Wednesday with the Iraqi government aimed at boosting Iraq's energy independence from Iran," Reuters reported Wednesday. 
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The companies involved in that five-firm deal signed Wednesday: Honeywell International Inc, Baker Hughes Co, General Electric Co, Stellar Energy and Chevron. Altogether, the companies "signed commercial agreements worth as much as $8 billion with the Iraqi ministers of oil and electricity," according to Reuters. More on all that,
 here.
We need to be creative in support of Iraqi Prime Minister Kadhimi
Kenneth Pollack | The Hill
Today, the president will meet Iraq’s new prime minister, Mustafa al-Kadhimi, at the White House. This is more than an important event; it is a strategically crucial one.
Hussein Ibish writes: To its deep discomfort, Hezbollah can no longer operate behind the façade of the state. The Lebanese government most directly responsible for the port explosion was entirely made up of Hezbollah allies. Its militia defends the corrupt political and economic system that has hollowed out the country. – Bloomberg
Turkey’s lira has been driven to record lows on concerns that lower interest rates, depleting FX reserves and a flood of easy credit could pave the way to a second currency crisis in as many years. – Reuters ​
Seth J. Frantzman writes: The fact that it put to sea its research vessel and seven naval vessels shows this is a real display of force. Ankara has also recruited lobbying firms in Washington and think tanks and experts to push its case via various media. This is a full-court press by Ankara that combines, in a Clausewitz-like style, the military, research vessels, energy claims, politics, foreign policy, Syrian mercenaries, lobbyists and media. Whether France, Greece, Egypt and others can actually work together to deal with this issue and get the US to take it seriously rather than give-in to Turkey’s unclear demands, remains to be seen. – Jerusalem Post
Seth J. Frantzman writes: The impunity of assassinations illustrates how militias, many affiliated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, are working slowly and systematically to silence any dissent. This is especially true for targeting young people and women. The goal is to preserve the system that arose in Iraq in the last decade, a rule that is increasingly beholden to militias, clerics, and the politics of the gun. – Jerusalem Post 
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Kenneth M. Pollack writes: Alternatively, if becomes clear that even Kadhimi — with his technocratic smarts, his non-partisan nationalism, and the assumed support of the United States — cannot begin to move Iraq in the right direction, the Iraqi people may turn against the system entirely and opt for a revolution that would be unlikely to work out well for the United States. – The Hill
Sam Magdy writes: The exact impact of the dam on downstream countries Egypt and Sudan remains unknown. For Egyptian farmers, the daunting prospect adds a new worry on top of the other causes of mounting water scarcity. Egypt is already spreading its water resources thin. Its booming population, now over 100 million, has one of the lowest per capita shares of water in the world, at around 550 cubic meters per year, compared to a global average of 1,000 – Associated Press
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Haisam Hassanein writes: In response, however, Washington should make clear that the future of peacemaking will be dictated by regional normalization. In other words, Egypt will need to join the normalization camp after stalling for years, or else watch its prestige and international influence continue to diminish. Cairo has not been serious about normalizing with Israel for years. […]These policies need to end if Cairo wants to be a major peace mediator and regional player in the changing Arab-Israeli paradigm. – Washington Institute
Donna Abu-Nasr writes: The rise of the UAE as a new power broker in the region could mark a shift in Arab leadership, dilute Saudi influence, and further fracture Gulf Arab unity. The kingdom has to balance that immediate geopolitical concern against other ideological ones. As the location of the holy cities of Mecca and Medina, Saudi Arabia is the symbolic leader of the global Muslim community, which is overwhelmingly sympathetic to the Palestinians. The Saudis’ archenemy Iran would likely pounce on any hint that Riyadh’s support for the Palestinians was wobbling. – Bloomberg
Anas El Gomati writes: As Haftar began losing ground, his political behavior looked increasingly desperate, and his focus turned to his own political survival and relevance. In a matter of weeks, Haftar staged a failed military coup over his political allies in eastern Libya and promised to launch the largest air campaign in Libyan history against the GNA, before abruptly backtracking and announcing his desire for a new, inclusive peace process and a return to political talks. – Foreign Policy
A new commander has taken charge of U.S. naval forces in the Middle East as tensions with Iran continue to simmer. On Wednesday, newly promoted Vice Adm. Samuel Paparo took charge of U.S. 5th Fleet from Vice Adm. James Malloy in a change of command ceremony in Bahrain. – USNI News ​
Rob Rosenberg writes: National security threats have spurred U.S. agencies to overhaul global trade risk management practices before. Following 9/11, border agencies increased cooperation with international partners and adjusted their assessment of supply chains based on the risk of terrorism. To prepare for and mitigate the supply chain vulnerabilities that could emerge from great power competition, the U.S. must again adjust its assessments of supply chains for this new global trade paradigm. – The Hill 
​
Chris Buckley writes: China has emerged from the coronavirus crisis, and its economy is recovering. But Mr. Xi and other senior officials meeting in Beijing late last month warned that China’s “international environment grows ever more complex, and instability and uncertainty have clearly increased.” They cited Mao’s notion of waging “protracted war” to drive home that warning. – New York Times
Paul D. Williams writes: For outside parties that want to stabilize Somalia, this suggests that the principal objective should be framed as political reconciliation rather than military victory. Again, it would be better to do this sooner rather than later. Moving forward, therefore, Washington should focus on increasing its diplomatic muscle to encourage these two sets of negotiations. This is preferable to both the main alternatives: continuing the business-as-usual approach of the last decade or abruptly disengaging militarily before the Somali security forces are able to stabilize the country. – War on the Rocks 
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Judd Devermont writes: The Malian government and relevant stakeholders need a fresh approach to manage and move past the conflict, including integrating parallel processes; incorporating key actors, including Islamists; and identifying new international guarantors for a revitalized peace process. – Center for Strategic and International Studies
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