EMERGING THREATS U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY - CounterStrikeMedia

GRAVE DANGERS IN US FOREIGN POLICY: PARTS 1/2 & THE CIA RETURNS TO MONITORING NATION STATE RIVALS

9/25/2018

U.S. Foreign Policy Faces Grave Danger, Part 5
by Alvin Rabushka via Thoughtful Ideas
This post wraps up my series on U.S. Foreign Policy Faces Grave Danger. In March 2005, Bush adviser Karen Hughes was named to a State Department post, Deputy Secretary of State for Public Diplomacy. In late September 2005 she traveled to Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey to open a dialogue with important Muslim countries. Her task was to persuade them that Bush’s War on Terror was not a War against Islam.

U.S. Foreign Policy Faces Grave Danger, Part 2
by Alvin Rabushka via Thoughtful Ideas
The intellectual foundations of U.S. foreign policy lie in the teaching and research of leading American universities. A root cause of recent U.S. foreign policy failures is the marked contrast between political practices and institutions in relatively homogeneous nations with common ethnic/racial identities, values and interests that seek exclusive governance, as against the United States, where the practice of diversity and inclusion that originated in American universities has spread to encompass the media, business, non-profit organizations, government, the armed forces, and every other social institution.

The CIA is returning its central focus to nation-state rivals, director says

WASH. EXAMINER

WHERE IS INDIA HEADING

9/24/2018

Beyond criminality and corruption – where is India heading?

IS CHINA GREATER THAN RUSSIA: VICTOR DAVIS HANSON EXAMINES THE FATE OF RUSSIA

9/23/2018

Hanson: China Is A Greater Threat Than Russia
featuring Victor Davis Hanson via The Collegian
With all the talk about Russia these days, one might forget that there are other countries that pose a threat to the United States — a far greater threat, perhaps.

Battle with Fate: Russia, Geography, and the Historical Cycle

China’s 'Divide and Conquer’ Charm Offensive
By Jeremy Huai-Che Chiang & Alan Hao Yang, the interpreter: “China’s creeping influence and strategy of polarising Taiwan’s democracy is a prelude of what a possible ‘Chinese Century’ might look like.”

EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN IS GETTING RED HOT GEOPOLITICALLY

9/20/2018

President Trump’s Shift in Syria
By Daniel DePetris, RealClearDefense: “ ... an indefinite U.S. military presence in Syria would be an endeavor with zero strategic benefit for America.”

The Eastern Mediterranean is getting more dangerous, and it’s not because of Russia, Syria, or Iran
Michael Rubin | Washington Examiner

MEF

A military alliance between Russia and Iran to back Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is giving way to an economic rivalry as Syria’s war winds down, a contest Moscow is leading. - Wall Street Journal
Tensions between Russia and Israel reignited Sunday after Russia’s Defense Ministry issued a harsh critique of Israel’s role in the downing of a Russian plane in Syria last week, despite previous efforts to smooth over the rift. - Washington Post

As the chief backer of Syria’s embattled opposition, Turkey now faces a perilous task. It must disarm its rebel allies in Syria’s Idlib province, under a new agreement with Russia, and eliminate the hardcore jihadists in their midst. - Washington Post

Turkey will take action east of the Euphrates river in Syria and impose secure zones as it has done in the northwest of the country, President Tayyip Erdogan said in comments broadcast on Turkish media on Monday. - Reuters

Two insurgent groups rejected a deal reached this month between Russia and Turkey to establish a demilitarized zone in Syria’s Idlib region with one saying Sunday that the agreement aims to “bury the revolution.” - Associated Press

Assaf Orion, Anna Borshchevskaya, and Matthew Levitt write: In the longer term, the combination of U.S. pressure and Israeli military action could pose a dilemma for Moscow[...]. So long as Iran and its agents—especially foreign fighters—are active in Syria, U.S. policy should be to contain the Assad regime and oppose steps that would strengthen it. - Washington Institute

Maxwell B. Markusen writes: The United States and the international community must shape a new approach to Syria that is focused on the trends that will destabilize Syria far beyond the battle for Idlib. Counterterrorism priorities, humanitarian concerns, economic growth (or lack thereof), and the presence of non-state military forces will determine the levels of future instability and conflict in Syria for years to come. - Center for Strategic and International Studies

CHOLERA, INFLATION IS ZIMBABWE

9/20/2018

Cholera and inflation: Just like old times in Zimbabwe
Roger Bate | AEIdeas

Africa Programme

Arab Gulf states in the Horn of Africa: What role do they play?
(Deutsche Welle) Ethiopia and Eritrea didn't pen their peace agreement in Addis Ababa or Asmara, but in Saudi Arabia with the Emirates alongside. Are economic and military interests increasingly binding Gulf states and the Horn together?

CHINESE NATIONALISM IS WEAK; NO ONE WILL TAKE A BULLET FOR XI

9/20/2018

JAPAN:
Why Japan’s First Submarine Visit to Vietnam Matters
By Prashanth Parameswaran, The Diplomat “The significance of the visit is unmistakable from the perspective of both countries, their strengthening defense ties, and the wider regional context.”

Arthur Waldron, Lauder Professor of International Relations in the Department of History at the University of Pennsylvania, explains that there are more and more symptoms of Xi having domestic political problems. He lived in the US for a while; is not necessarily anti-American but surely is China-first. The century of humiliation: the period from 1850 to 1950, when the Communists came in; was completely mythical. . . . There’s not one guy in the Chinese army who’d take a bullet for Xi. They may not be able to defeat Taiwan, but they sure can defeat Beijing.

algeria: new elections = new leadership

9/19/2018

Algeria shakes up military leadership ahead of elections

Algeria’s Defense Ministry confirmed Tuesday that it has sacked its air force chief, eight months ahead of presidential elections. Maj. Gen. Abdelkader Lounes will be replaced by Maj. Gen. Hamid Boumaiza. The announcement comes days after local papers reported Lounes’ dismissal as well as the dismissal of Maj. Gen. Ahsan Tafer, the ground forces commander, as part of a major reshuffle of the country’s military establishment. In June, President Abdelaziz Bouteflika fired national police chief Abdelghani Hamel, an influential politician seen as a possible future contender for the presidency. Read More

A NOBEL COMPLICIT IN GENOCIDE: BURMA

9/15/2018

GLOBAL JIHAD IS REAL: ITS NOW GLOBAL

9/15/2018

DOMESTIC COSTS OF PUTIN'S REIGN MOUNTING & GULF MONARCHIES SEEK ENDURING INFLUENCE IN AFRICAN HORN

9/15/2018

Testimony: Raising the domestic political costs of Vladimir Putin’s policies

Gulf plays peacemaker in play for Horn of Africa influence
Saudi Arabia welcomes the leaders of Ethiopia and Eritrea on Sunday for the signing of a peace agreement ending 20 years of intra-African hostilities in the latest sign of deepening ties between the Gulf and the Horn of Africa. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki will attend a signing ceremony in Jeddah hosted by King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud. Riyadh’s close ally, the United Arab Emirates, played a key diplomatic role, reportedly offering a $1 billion to Ethiopia’s central bank and a pledge of $2 billion in investments. The Saudis have offered to provide a year’s supply of oil with payment delayed up to 12 months, an Ethiopian official told Reuters.

The UAE enjoys an outsized influence in Eritrea, joining its Gulf neighbors seeking to increase their foothold in the region in recent years. Its influence, however, has waned in neighboring Somalia as Gulf tensions spill over into the increasingly militarized region. Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE rely on Eritrea and Djibouti to host bases crucial to the Saudi-led coalition’s campaign against the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. But as the two countries continue their blockade of Qatar, Doha has invested in the embattled Somali government. Meanwhile, Turkey, which has sided with Qatar in the Gulf dispute, has joined Doha in building ports and bases in neighboring Sudan

Ruble’s Troubles
The story: Over the last few weeks, the Russian ruble has notably devalued (by about 10 percent since August 1), with its exchange rate to the U.S. dollar exceeding 70 rubles last week. [Kommersant]
What is going on?

This significant fluctuation can be explained by large local purchases of foreign currency by the Central Bank. Another possible factor is the flight of foreign investors in the light of the new anti-Russian sanctions (over the Skripal attacks) and potentially others, currently underway.
However, earlier this week, the ruble managed to stabilize. Some analysts attribute this correction to a slight increase in oil prices and a certain interference by the Finance Ministry, whose officials also tried to convince the markets in a profound undervaluation of the ruble. [Kommersant]
Still, following the September 13 U.S. State Department’s announcement regarding the second round of sanctions over the Skripal attack, the ruble exchange rate to the dollar spiked up to 73.48 in less than two hours. [Vedomosti]
There is also a domestic factor—the accelerated inflation rate of around 3 percent that for a year has been kept below the Central Bank’s target of 4 percent. This period might be over, as the Bank’s outlook for 2019 projects a target-beating inflation rate. [RBC]
It is also noteworthy that since January 2018, net capital flight from Russia, according to the Central Bank, amounted to 26.5 billion rubles ($390 million), which is 2.8 times more than in the same period of 2017. [Economy Times]

On a different economic front:

This week, the Stolypin Institute for the Economy of Growth (led by 2018 presidential candidate and ombudsman Boris Titov) published a report that revealed that the Russian economy lost 43 trillion rubles ($630 billion) of potential added value due to a catastrophic decrease in productivity. This amounts to almost half of the country’s GDP (92 trillion rubles in 2017).
The report notes that extraction of minerals remains Russia’s most efficient industry, with fishing and trade coming second and third. The least efficient sectors are public administration, education, housing, social services and healthcare. [RBC]

iraq's sadr seeks to amend iranian relations & AL-QAEDA REMAINS ALIVE

9/13/2018

Iraq’s Sadr meets with pro-Iran coalition to discuss parliamentary alliance
The head of Iraq’s pro-Iran Fatah Alliance, Hadi al-Amiri, met with the head of the Sairoon Alliance, Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, on Wednesday to discuss a possible alliance as the Iraqi parliament seeks to form a new government. Although no final agreement has been reached, the meeting comes as current Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi faces increasing scrutiny for his handling of mass rallies in the southern city of Basra where protesters have demonstrated against the lack of basic services like potable water and electricity.
The United States is concerned that an Amiri-Sadr alliance could expand Iranian influence in Iraq more than a coalition between Sadr’s Sairoon Alliance and Abadi. As such, Republican senators are moving to introduce legislation that would impose sanctions on Iranian proxies in Iraq, most of which fall under Amiri’s Fatah Alliance. The bill would also oblige the secretary of state to publish and maintain a list of armed groups receiving assistance from Iran. Read More 

Sadr threatens to lead opposition in Iraq’s parliament
The leader of Iraq's biggest parliamentary faction, Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, threatened Thursday to withdraw from negotiations to form a new government even though his Sairoon Alliance finished first in the May elections. Instead, Sadr said Sairoon could play an opposition role in the next government if political parties fail to select an independent prime minister without foreign intervention. Sadr met with the head of the pro-Iran Fatah Alliance, Hadi al-Amiri, earlier this week, after previously attempting to form an alliance with embattled Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi and his Al-Nasr Alliance. Read More

AL-QAEDA IS ALIVE

NORTH KOREA GUN SALES TO AFRICA, REFORMING US LED AFRICAN SECURITY EFFORTS & TRANSNATIONAL TERRORIST FINANCING

9/13/2018

Reforming U.S. Security Support in Africa
U.S. security sector assistance in Africa has a mixed record, according to new RAND research. During the Cold War, for example, this support was associated with an increase in civil wars. But when conducted along with UN peacekeeping operations, security assistance was found to decrease the likelihood of civil wars and insurgencies, terrorist attacks, and government repression. There are changes the United States can make to ensure its security efforts in Africa have an overall more positive impact. Read more »

Countering Terrorist Financing
At the height of its territorial control in 2015, ISIS generated over $6 billion. RAND's Colin Clarke recently testified before Congress to explain how the group amassed its war chest—and how it could finance a renewed campaign of terror. Clarke says it's important to continue tracking how money flows into ISIS-held territory. Read more »

WHAT DOES KIM WANT IN SECOND MEETING WITH TRUMP & NORTH KOREAN CHEMICAL WEAPONS SALES TO N.KOREA

9/13/2018

US ARMY PREPARES TO "MIND THE GAP" IN EUROPE, HOW TO PREPARE REALISTIC GENERALS & DON'T MIND THE RUSSIAN MILITARY

9/13/2018

U.S., EUROPE:
U.S. Soldiers at Suwalki Gap: The First Line of Defense
By John Vandiver, Stars and Stripes: “If Moscow were ever to test the alliance on its own turf — something Russian authorities have repeatedly rejected as Western paranoia — the Suwalki Gap along the Polish and Lithuanian borders could be the place.

The Case for Realistic Generals
By Trent Lythgoe, Modern War Institute: “America needs realistic generals whose confidence in themselves, the mission, and their subordinates stems from a grounded assessment of the facts of the situation.”

Extremism and Fragile States
By Trent Lythgoe, Modern War Institute: “America needs realistic generals whose confidence in themselves, the mission, and their subordinates stems from a grounded assessment of the facts of the situation.”

Don’t Fear the Russian Military
By Mark Galeotti, The Atlantic: “The headline figures for Russia’s Vostok (or “East”) military exercises, which began yesterday, are dramatic: 300,000 soldiers, 36,000 tanks and other vehicles, 80 ships, and 1,000 aircraft operating across more than half the country.”

ARAMCO FAILS, TURKISH LIRA FAILS, IRAN IS COLLAPSING, VENEZUELA IS COLLAPSING ETC. . .

9/12/2018

What's Old Is New Again: It's the Free World Vs. Neo-Authoritarians
// Thomas Wright
The U.S. must abandon the notion of a liberal world order, and get to work deterring those who would bring down democracy.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonconstable/2018/08/31/venezuelas-latest-lurch-into-insanity/#6bc6017d7185

The Growing Risk of a New Middle East War
Escalating clashes between Israeli and Iranian forces in Syria have demonstrably increased the risk of a new, large-scale regional conflict that would likely involve the U.S. military. Tehran's continued provocations and violations of Israel's stated red lines are fueling escalation with the potential to rapidly spin out of control. Read more »

HOW TO CONTAIN AL-QAEDA IN SYRIA & IRANS MISSILE ATTACK WILL BACKFIRE

9/12/2018

WINEP’s Bilal Wahab: Iran’s missile attack in Iraqi Kurdistan could backfire
Brooking’s Michael O'Hanlon & Steven Heydemann: How to prevent creation of ISIS 2.0 in Syria's Idlib province

Can Erdogan intimidate Assad into backing off Idlib?
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has vowed not to "watch from the sidelines" amid news of increased arms supplies flowing from Turkey to Syrian opposition rebels.

TURKEY GETS RATTLED BY RUSSIA OVER SYRIAN COMMITMENTS

9/12/2018

Turkish-Russian 'strategic ties' fail stress test on Syria's Idlib
The recent Tehran summit placed a spotlight on differences between Ankara and Moscow over Syria, leaving the Turkish president rattled.

IRAN'S KURDISH INSURGENCY TAKES OFF & AEI'S REGIONAL THREAT MATRIX WITH MAPS

9/12/2018

“Iran’s Kurdish Insurgency”

Threat Update

https://www.meforum.org/articles/2018/iran-s-attack-on-kurds-is-a-message-to-washington

Adel al-Gabouri writes: The regional and international actors interested in reducing Iranian influence in Iraq must realize that the PMF is not a homogenous Shia militia. In this way, any policy adopted regarding the PMF must deal with its constituent factions on an individual basis, especially those groups loyal to Iran that have religious ties to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. - Washington Institute

EXTREMISM, FRAGILE STATES LIKE SOMALIA & AL-QAEDA MAKES A COMEBACK

9/11/2018

FRAGILE STATES INDEX
FDD

The 'War on Terror' Still Grows in Somalia
// Christina Goldbaum
"Drone strikes may have a purpose, but they are no substitute for a political strategy."

Somalia’s five federal member states suspended all ties with the Somali Federal Government in a bid to extract political and economic patronage, weakening the primary U.S. counterterrorism partner in Somalia. Regional states may suspend military cooperation with federal forces and restrict their movements, setting conditions for al Shabaab to recapture territory in central and southern Somalia. [Read Emily Estelle’s prepared testimony for today’s hearing on developments in Ethiopia: “ Ethiopia’s Strategic Importance.”]

Al Qaeda emir Ayman al Zawahiri’s 9/11 speech portrayed al Qaeda as the leader of a unified Salafi-jihadi movement and identified the United States as the primary enemy. Zawahiri’s speech is part of al Qaeda’s ongoing effort to recapture the leadership of the Salafi-jihadi movement as ISIS loses its territorial caliphate. [See “Understanding ISIS and al Qaeda,”

FDD: AL-QAEDA MAKES A COMEBACK

"Al Qaeda Is Very Much Alive," Thomas Joscelyn, The Weekly Standard
"Al Qaeda leader: America is the main enemy in a ‘single war with different fronts’," Thomas Joscelyn, FDD's Long War Journal

RUSSIA'S EURASIAN WAR GAMING ON

9/7/2018

Putin Pivots From Western Pressure, but Finds Scant Solace in the East
By Pavel K. Baev, Eurasia Daily Monitor: “Russia’s claim to retaining the mantle of a “great power” is today backed up almost solely by its military force, which Moscow currently seeks to bring to bear in the competitive Asia-Pacific region.”

CHINA'S CYBER LED ECONOMIC WAR

9/7/2018

FDD

This Is China's Way of Warmaking
By James Holmes, The National Interest: “Beijing's military wants to sow paralysis in an enemy system-of-systems for long enough to accomplish its goals—that way it will not need to bother trying to annihilate its adversary.”

INDIA & AFRICAN HORN MOVE INTO US ORBIT

9/7/2018

US, India seal military communications pact, plan more exercises
(Straits Times) India and the United States signed an accord on secure military communications that both sides hailed as a breakthrough on Thursday (Sept 6), possibly opening the way for sales of sensitive US military equipment to India.

Diplomatic ties strengthen in the Horn of Africa
(ABC News) Ethiopian, Eritrean and Somalia leaders are set to meet in Eritrea's capital Asmara, furthering the diplomatic thaw in the strategic Horn of Africa region. By bringing together the leaders of former arch-foes in a summit Wednesday, Eritrea is building newly friendly relations with neighbors Ethiopia and Somalia.

Ethiopia, an 'imperfect hegemon' in the Horn of Africa
The Editor’s Choice article looks at Ethiopia’s understanding of itself as a regional hegemon. The article highlights the importance of studying the Horn of Africa and Ethiopia’s place within this unstable region. Sonia Le Gouriellec carefully unpacks how Ethiopian foreign policy makers consider the country to be a hegemon, but that this is rejected by many of the neighbouring countries. Why do they do this, especially when Ethiopia hopes to encourage peace and security in the region? Read the article to find out.
Read the Editor's Choice >

Testimony: Ethiopia’s strategic importance: US national security interests at risk in the Horn of Africa
Emily Estelle | Subcommittee on Africa, Global Health, Global Human Rights, and International Organizations

INTER-OPERABILITY? RUSSIAN, EURASIAN WAR GAMING ON

9/6/2018

HOW MONROE DOCTRINE GOES IN LATIN AMERICA & GREAT POWER COMPETITION WITH CHINA EXAMINED

9/6/2018

No One's Supplanting U.S. Military Influence in Latin America
// Juan Gabriel Tokatlian
Concerns about Chinese, Russian, and Iranian forays are overblown.

Testimony: Cooperation and competition with China: The need for new approaches
Oriana Skylar Mastro | Senate Committee on Foreign Relations
Great-power competition requires expanding US efforts beyond traditional friends and allies. The US needs a whole-government approach to identifying and responding to the China challenge.

IRAN SEEKS TO REPLICATE LEBANON IN SYRIA; HAMAS GOES AFTER ISRAELI DOCTRINE IN GAZA

9/5/2018

WINEP’s Mona Alami: Is Iran replicating Lebanon model in southern Syria?

Mona Alami writes: Iran has a vested interest in the southwest and will continue to expand its influence there. It may do so either covertly or use strategic patience until circumstances are ripe. South Syria, muchlike Lebanon, has become a useful strategic card in Tehran’s regional game. - Middle East Institute

Shimon Arad writes: Hamas’s development of asymmetric area-denial capabilities and doctrine since 2014 has countered the traditional military strengths of Israel’s precision-strike and maneuver systems, rendering military access into and movement in Gaza a costly endeavor. This has tempered Israel’s traditional preference for offensive ground operations, eliminating one incentive for escalation. - War on the Rocks