EMERGING THREATS U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY - CounterStrikeMedia

THE DON IS LOSING TO THE MULLAH'S

9/27/2019

How Libya’s economic structures enrich the militias
Jason Pack

Yemen File is a biweekly analysis and assessment of the Yemen conflict and the Salafi-jihadi movement in Yemen. Each edition begins "At a Glance” followed by country-specific updates.
Read the latest Yemen File here.

At a Glance: The conflict in Yemen significantly challenges US efforts to combat al Qaeda and Iranian influence in the Middle East. Iran has expanded its influence in the Arabian Peninsula over the Yemeni civil war. AQAP, which had been al Qaeda’s most virulent affiliate, retains its sanctuaries in southern Yemen despite ongoing counterterrorism operations. US Gulf partners, especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have become entangled in the Yemeni civil war, now a regional conflict. Near-famine conditions in Yemen are driving the world’s worst humanitarian crisis, which could further destabilize the region.

September 24 Briefing: The al Houthi movement falsely claimed a high-profile attack against Saudi Arabia to advance its interests in Yemen’s civil war and facilitate Iran’s response to the US “maximum pressure” campaign. The al Houthi movement seeks to compel Saudi Arabia—through both real and claimed attacks—to accept a détente that preserves al Houthi power in Yemen. The al Houthis’ claim also grants Iran plausible deniability for escalatory attacks against Saudi Arabia that are intended to impose a cost on the US and its allies.
- Read CTP Director Frederick W. Kagan's new in-depth report on the Abqaiq attack and how the US should respond.
Check out detailed analysis in the Yemen File on:
- The al Houthi Movement
- Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula

Keep It Steady And Cool With Iran, America
By Victor Davis Hanson via National Review
Expect more desperate Iranian efforts to prompt a U.S. military response in the Persian Gulf. Trump’s sanctions have cut off 90 percent of Iran’s oil revenues. Soon Tehran’s shattered economy will be followed by more pent-up domestic unrest of the sort that Barack Obama ignored in 2009, when he felt that the continued viability of the murderous theocracy fed his bizarre dreams of enhancing a new Shiite, Persian hegemony to counterbalance the Sunni Arabs.

UKRAINE IS ABOUT BIDEN: THE SWAMP LIVES & HOW THE IRAQI SHIA MILITIAS MUST INTEGRATE INTO THE IRAQI STATE

9/26/2019

Are the Kremlin’s gains in the Middle East sustainable?
The military campaign in Syria marked a turning point for Russia’s reemergence as a power in the Middle East. Taking advantage of the opportunities presented by Western failures, the Kremlin’s tactical approach has seen it make gains across the region, although these may be more limited and reversible — and Moscow more vulnerable — than is often thought.
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Decentralization and its Discontents in Iraq
Iraq’s current public service regime is struggling to deliver on desperately needed services in part due to the issue of establishing a functioning federal state system across the country. Far more attention needs to be devoted to institutions and how those operating within them can deliver those services.
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The Al-Hashd al-Sha'bi Militias at a Crossroads
By Dr. Doron Itzchakov, September 27, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The recent assaults on the militia bases of al-Hashd al-Sha’bi raise questions about Iraq’s future. Despite the Iraqi PM’s ultimatum demanding that the militias, which operate under the Iranian umbrella, integrate into the Iraqi military apparatus, a number of them are not complying, which could have implications for Iraqi sovereignty.
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PMU under pressure to integrate into Iraqi state
Following dramatic changes in the leadership of the Popular Mobilization Units, two rockets hit near the US Embassy in Baghdad, signaling discontent with the move.

'Well, Son of a Bitch': Ukraine Scandal Is About Biden
Editorial of The New York Sun | September 25, 2019
https://www.nysun.com/editorials/well-son-of-a-bitch-ukraine-scandal-is-about-biden/90846/

Release of the transcript of President Trump's call with Ukraine's new president makes one thing clear -- the Democrats are focusing on the wrong guy. They're trying to use this episode to impeach Mr. Trump. What the conversation shows, though, is that Mr. Trump was enlisting help to do exactly what he had promised to do, drain the swamp. The culprit on whom to focus is Vice President Biden.
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WHY MAKING DEALS WITH DESPOTS DOESN'T WORK & THE PERSIAN GULF DIVIDES OVER CHINA

9/26/2019

Why making deals with despots is difficult
Fanatical ideologues tend not to be “win-win” kind of guys.
Clifford D. May | Founder & President

Diverging Gulf Responses to Kashmir and Xinjiang Reflect Deep Divisions
By Dr. James M. Dorsey, September 25, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Recent diametrically opposed responses to the repression of Muslims by China, India, and other Asian countries highlight deep differences among the Gulf states that ripple across Asia.
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Turkey should heed the International Monetary Fund’s warnings
Desmond Lachman | AEIdeas

HOW WEAK IS THE DON? HOW MANY NUKES IS IRAN HIDING & BEIJING SEEKS TO SPLIT THE US-ISRAELI ALLIANCE

9/21/2019

US Adversaries: Nothing to Fear from the White House? by Con Coughlin

Just How Many Nuclear Facilities Is Iran Hiding?
Tzvi Kahn | Senior Iran Analyst

Israel Shouldn’t Worry About Ilhan Omar. It Should Worry About Xi Jinping.
China risks becoming a point of chronic contention between the United States and Israel.

A Century Of Ideas: New Regional Orders And New Ways Of War: Europe, The Middle East, And Asia
via The Hoover Centennial
The global order of the past seven decades is being disrupted by regional dynamics. Powers of the past are reasserting themselves—Russia in Europe and the Middle East, Turkey and Iran in the Middle East, and China in Asia and beyond. Technology is changing how nations can prosper, influence, and compel. The panel will discuss what these changes portend for each of these regions and the US role in shaping events in its national interest.

China and the US: amphibious ambitions take new shape
As the United States Marine Corps contemplates shifting the make-up of its forces in the face of a challenging operating environment and the proliferation of anti-access/area-denial capabilities, China is about to take the next step in beefing up its amphibious capability.

TURKEY GOES NUCLEAR, WHY ARE THERE TURKISH DRONES IN LIBYA? SUDAN MOVES FORWARD SLOWLY & US NEEDS TO RID ITSELF OF ORTEGA

9/11/2019

Next for Turkey? Nuclear Weapons! by Burak Bekdil •

Is Erdoğan Solely Responsible for Turkish Foreign Policy?
By Dr. Spyridon N. Litsas, September 18, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Many believe Turkey will return to “Western normality” as soon as Recep Tayyip Erdoğan finishes his political career. But Turkey’s behavior is influenced by the systemic restructuring of the international arena after the end of the Cold War more than it is by Erdoğan’s aura, as was apparent in the 1990s prior to his advent. It is unwise to anticipate a significant change in Turkish foreign policy once Erdoğan leaves the scene.
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What is Muqtada al-Sadr doing in Iran?
In a surprising appearance, Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, known for his criticism of Iran's regional policies, sat next to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Iran's Quds commander Qasem Soleimani at a religious assembly.

South Sudan: Rebel Leader Returns to Discuss Peace Accords. Exiled rebel leader RiekMachar has arrived in South Sudan's capital for expected talks with PresidentSalva Kirr, a meeting seen as an important step towards the implementation of a stalled peace deal. Machar's visit, the first in a year, comes before a November deadline to form a power-sharing government, a key part of the pact signed by the two rivals last year to end the country's civil war. The roll-out of the accord, however, has been delayed by disputes. "The meeting aims at discussing the outstanding issues related to the implementation of the R-ARCSS (peace deal) with President Kiir and other head of the parties to the agreement," Machar's director for information, Puok Both Baluang, said. African News Al Jazeera

It's time to escalate against Nicaragua's Ortega
Ryan C. Berg | RealClearWorld

Turkish drones in Libya are a strategic and family affair
Drones manufactured by the company of the Turkish president’s son-in-law been prominently involved in what has become a proxy war between Turkey and the UAE in Libya.

South Sudan: Rivals Agree on Transitional Government. South Sudan President Salva Kiir and former rebel leader Riek Machar have agreed to form a transitional government. The Information Minister, Barnaba Marial Benjamin, said that the new administration would be in place by mid-November. “Rest assured that things are going on well,” Kiir said on Wednesday after meeting Machar. “We are coming to a solution very soon.” Machar is expected to return to the country as Kiir’s deputy, a position he held before the nation’s civil war began in 2013. He left the country in 2016, abandoning a similar power-sharing arrangement. Remaining issues include security arrangements such as integrating rebel troops with government forces. Over the next two months, the nation will combine troops to create a force of 83,000 soldiers. Bloomberg Al Jazeera

Mohammed Soliman writes: The United States has specifically designated former Sudan’s National Intelligence and Security Service director Salah Gosh for his involvement in “gross violations of human rights.” The United States must expand on this by threatening to impose sanctions on prominent Sundanese military leaders implicated in human rights violations[…]. Most notably, this action will showcase the United States and the international community’s commitment to a smooth democratic transition from the TMC leadership, and helping to curb any ambitions of RSF leader General Hemediti to spoil the current agreement between the TMC and the FFC. – Washington Institute

SAUDI ARABIA IS LOSING YEMEN TO IRAN, TALIBAN INITIATIVE DEAD, A LOOK AT OUR BROKEN NUCLEAR TRIAD & HOW US ALLIANCE SYSTEM IS BROKEN

9/10/2019

THE DECLINE OF ARAB UNITY

Making Headway Against the Sinai Insurgency
Since 2013, Egypt has been engaged in the Sinai Peninsula against a deadly ISIS-affiliated insurgency. To make headway, the Egyptian government could focus on providing services in the region and repairing its relationship with citizens.Read more »

Reagan's Cold War Lessons for Handling Russia
Rising public protests in Russia may be putting the Kremlin on the defensive at home. But Moscow is playing offense abroad, challenging the West more than at any time since Ronald Reagan's presidency. Reagan's strategy to counter the Kremlin back then offers insights that could help guide U.S. policy today. Read more »

Time to Return to the Basics of Statecraft
After two decades of setbacks abroad, it's time to ask whether the decline in American influence is irreversible. Ultimately, neither China nor Russia is responsible for these difficulties. Washington's failures have been self-inflicted, the result of flawed policy rather than any decisive shift in the global balance of power. Read more »

The writing was on the wall with Afghanistan
(The Atlantic ) The latest bout of bloodshed may have played some role in the actions Trump just took, but it is also a convenient out for an administration that had gone all in on a floundering initiative.

There's still a path forward with the Taliban
(Bloomberg) Trump was right to kill the Camp David meeting but negotiations should continue, with Colombia as the model.

U.S., AFGHANISTAN:
Trump Says Taliban Talks ‘Dead,’ Military to Ramp Up Afghanistan Ops
By Steve Holland & Phil Stewart, Reuters: "U.S. President Donald Trump proclaimed talks with Afghanistan's Taliban leaders dead on Monday, while the general in charge said the U.S. military is likely to ramp up operations in Afghanistan to counter an increase in Taliban attacks."

There’s Still a Path Forward With the Taliban
By James Stavridis, Bloomberg: “Trump was right to kill the Camp David meeting but negotiations should continue, with Colombia as the model."

The Broken Leg of America’s Nuclear Triad
By Mark Thompson, Project on Government Oversight: "The Pentagon’s logic undergirding the triad, such as it is, is in danger of falling apart: The U.S. military is on the cusp of putting all of those nuclear eggs into a single basket."

Saudi Arabia Is Losing Yemen to Iran by Jonathan Spyer
The Jerusalem Post
September 6, 2019
https://www.meforum.org/59323/saudi-arabia-is-losing-yemen-to-iran

How an alliance system withers
Oriana Skylar Mastro and Bonnie S. Glaser | Foreign Affairs
For more than half a century, US power in Asia has rested on the alliance system that Washington built in the years after World War II. Now, a dispute between Japan and South Korea — the two most important pillars of that system — threatens to undo decades of progress.

The end of the Wilsonian century?
Colin Dueck | The National Interest

BOLTON FIRED BY TRUMP & HOW RUSSIA COLLAPSES

9/10/2019

WHY BOLTON WAS FIRED

Trump May Come To Miss Bolton -- As the UN Did
By BENNY AVNI, Special to the Sun | September 11, 2019
https://www.nysun.com/foreign/trump-may-come-to-miiss-john-bolton-as-the-un-did/90828/

Trump's Bolton Removal Leaves Pompeo as the Last Man Standing
by Seth Frantzman
The Jerusalem Post
September 10, 2019
https://www.meforum.org/59337/with-bolton-gone-pompeo-is-last-man-standing

Can Trump Hew the Hard Line After Bolton?
Editorial of The New York Sun | September 10, 2019
https://www.nysun.com/editorials/can-trump-hew-the-hard-line-after-bolton/90827/
Two names stand out as particularly newsworthy among those being mentioned, at least to us, as possible National Security Adviser following the departure of John Bolton. One is our envoy to Free Germany, Ambassador Rick Grenell, who, we hear, is due to speak with the President late this week. The other is -- wait for it -- General Michael Flynn, who had the NSC job for a month at the start of Mr. Trump's presidency.
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Global Terrorism: Threats to the Homeland
Thomas Joscelyn testifies before the House Committee on Homeland Security on the subject of global terrorism and the threats to the United State homeland.

Russia Will Likely Collapse from the Inside
By Emil Avdaliani, September 11, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Russia is historically prone to internal collapse, as is shown by numerous examples from both the imperial and Soviet periods. The collapse usually takes place as Russia rests on the laurels of recent military victories while internal economic and social troubles grow. History teaches that the best way to deal with Russia is to keep intervention to a minimum and wait for its internal troubles to bring about its collapse.
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How Putin’s Russia Works
In his most recent book, Russia's Crony Capitalism, Anders Aslund details the current state of affairs in Putin’s Russia and provides an overview of the system that he defines as “crony capitalism.” The book serves as a good primer of the subject, offering a useful meta-analysis and integrating points. >>>

Did the Time of Troubles End?
The turbulent period in the Russian history, the Time of Troubles (1584-1613), continues to provide rich material for politicians. Looking into the two studies of this period, historian Dmitry Shlapentokh highlights the key ideas borrowed by the Putin regime to justify its policies. >>>

DOES ENGLAND HAVE A GOVERNMENT NOW? & WHAT TO MAKE OF THE TURKISH-IRANIAN-RUSSIAN AXIS, FINALLY A LOOK AT GERMAN ELECTIONS AFTER MERKEL

9/5/2019

Intel: How Russia and Iran are drawing closer on Gulf, Syria
The Russian and Iranian foreign ministers met in Moscow to discuss regional issues and opportunities for cooperation.

Roundtable: The Iranian Way of War
By Arron Stein, Ariane M. Tabatabai & Afshon Ostovar, FPRI: "The Islamic Republic of Iran has been at war for almost its entire existence, beginning with the Iraqi invasion of the country in 1980 and, then, in an asymmetric way in support of regional clients, often working against American allies and partners in the Middle East."

IRAN:
Iran to Develop Nuclear Centrifuges in Defiance of JCPOA
By Darryl Coote, UPI: "Iran announced it would begin developing centrifuges to hasten its uranium enrichment, the latest move by the Middle Eastern country to distance itself from a landmark 2015 nuclear accord aimed at preventing it from developing a nuclear weapon."

How Sincere Is the Turkey-Iran Friendship?
By Dr. Alon J. Doenyas, September 5, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: If the world press is anything to go by, the Turkey-Iran courtship is getting serious, and Russia is playing best man. The two countries’ strengthening ties are based on shared regional goals, the most prominent of which is Syria. But how sincere is the burgeoning relationship?
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Narrow Escapes In State Votes Earn Big German Parties A Few Months' Relief
quoting Josef Joffe via Reuters
German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives and their Social Democrat (SPD) coalition partners turned their sights with some relief on new hurdles months down the road after withstanding a far-right battering in two eastern regional elections on Sunday.

AL-MONITOR: HOW PUTIN CANNOT SAVE TURKEY FROM ITS SYRIAN CONFLICT

GREGORY COPLEY ON THE STRATEGIC SIGNIFICANCE OF HONG KONG, A REPRESSIVE SURVEILLANCE EMPIRE CALLED CHINA; HOW BEIJING'S LEADERSHIP CANNOT SOLVE HONG KONG

9/5/2019

SCMP: HONG KONG GRAPHICS

Gregory Copley, Defense and Foreign Affairs, in re: India. Jammu and Kashmir have lost their autonomous status, having been reclaimed by India. The Line of Control in the Kashmir region: India is strengthening its position there as Beijing is absorbed by Hong Kong. Has broken the Muslim stranglehold on Jammu and Kashmir – with no media attention, which Beijing can only dream about. Just when Beijing thought it had Pakistan all to itself, the Pakistani PM went to Washington and made a big hit, and the US promised more F16 supplies. The Pakistan land bridge is not as all-Chinese as China thought. Uzbekistan is developing warmer. Beijing is ham-handed in hits dealings with the pro-democracy demonstrators. Carrie Lam seems to show weakness; reflects badly on Beijing.

Claudia Rosett, Independent Women’s Forum, in re: Hong Kong. The Mainland government is informed about some aspects of democracy; certainly enough to refuse categorically to allow free elections. China has changed in that it’s richer; it’s not Communist, it’s a techno-repressive surveillance state. This is a warning to the entire world. The essential feature to Xi and his associates is power.
Hong Kong citizens know of Xinjiang and the Uyghurs. The youth are facing guns, tanks, and the armaments of the state; they say they’re willing to die to succeed – the don't want a government that tells them how to think and how to live, and to stay silent. The propaganda-soaked fiction state; the protestors don’t want the propaganda and lies, they want truth and openness. Carrie Lam is a stooge of the devil; Hong Kong people hate her. At best, she’s a hood ornament; as a political fixture, they find her detestable.

Arthur Waldron, Lauder Professor of International Relations in the Department of History at the University of Pennsylvania, on the Hong Kong protests. The Beijing leadership is broadly ignorant of how the rest of the world works – that the protestors will always win – and further are divided among themselves. No one in China believes what Xi Jinping says, although people have a strong sense of Chinese-ness. The leaders see that this is an ideological challenge; when the populace sees that it's being forced to live in a [constricted] way, it will be displeased. Deng Xiaoping thought that it’d be peaceable if the income rose – but the more income people have, the more they're likely to be interested in liberation.