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EMERGING THREAT ASSESSMENT
GLOBAL STRIKE MEDIA.COM 
NORTH AMERICA 

TURKEY GOES EAST INVITING RUSSIAN REVENGE & GLOBAL TRENDS FOR THE LONG WAR EXAMINED

9/29/2020

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National Defense Strategy to make the best use of available funding as the United States enters a time of budget pressure. Read more here.
Diliman Abdulkader on U.S. Policy toward the Kurds  by Marilyn Stern
Middle East Forum Webinar
October 5, 2020

https://www.meforum.org/61614/abdulkader-on-us-policy-toward-the-kurds
Erdogan Seeks To Relitigate Defeat Of Turks in WWI
By JONATHAN TOBIN, Special to the Sun | October 6, 2020
https://www.nysun.com/foreign/erdogan-seeking-to-relitigate-defeat-of-turks/91289/
Erdoğan and His Arab "Brothers"  by Burak Bekdil
BESA Center Perspectives
October 8, 2020

https://www.meforum.org/61634/erdogan-and-his-arab-brothers
Between a rock and hard place: Iran’s dilemma in Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
Tehran is sending forces to its borders in anticipation of the Armenian-Azeri conflict spilling over.
The Failures of Operation Enduring Freedom
Thomas Joscelyn — The Dispatch
Nineteen years ago today, the U.S. military went to war in Afghanistan. It was not a war of America’s choosing. Prior to the 9/11 hijackings, Osama bin Laden and his lieutenants planned a series of attacks on American interests, including the 1998 U.S. Embassy bombings and the October 2000 attack on the USS Cole. Despite the obvious terrorist threat emanating from Afghanistan, the Taliban’s founder and overall leader, Mullah Omar, repeatedly rejected America’s demands. Omar stood by bin Laden. Read more
U.S., TURKEY:
Turkey Reportedly Used S-400 System Against U.S.-Made F-16s,
and Congress Wants Answers

By Oriana Pawlyk, Military.com: “The world is steadily confronting the prospect of full-fledged Chinese domination in the world’s most important waterway, the South China Sea.”
Why the President Is the Weakest Link in U.S. Nuclear Strategy
By Loren Thompson, Forbes: “. . . the president has unilateral authority to launch nuclear weapons, and that power is one of the few places in the federal system where no checks and balances exist."
Will Iran’s past become prologue for Nagorno-Karabakh?
Revenge of Stalinism
Why the cancellation of Nord Stream-2 will punish Russian citizens, not the Kremlin
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Egypt rallies Arab states against Turkey in Syria
Cairo is capitalizing on anger over the Turkish intervention in Syria to unite the Arab ranks in support of Damascus.  Read More  
Conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh has broken out repeatedly since Armenians seized control of the territory and surrounding areas from Azerbaijan, in a war that started soon after the 1991 collapse of the former Soviet Union[…]. The latest bout of fighting that started Sept. 27 differs from many previous skirmishes since the end of the war in 1994, both in scale and in geopolitical risk. This time, Turkey has given unreserved backing to its ally Azerbaijan, raising the stakes significantly. – Bloomberg
Bloomberg’s Bobby Ghosh: Erdogan puts himself in a bind in Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict
Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict: What’s behind the fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh
Turkey is sending Syrian rebel fighters to support Azerbaijan in its escalating conflict with neighbouring Armenia, two Syrian rebels have said, as Ankara pledges to step up backing for its majority-Muslim ally. – Reuters
​

Michael Rubin writes: Whatever analytical camp, the policy response should be the same: Judge Ankara by its actions rather than words and calibrate policy toward reality rather than wishful thinking. […]To solve the Turkey problem, therefore, it is essential to advance US-Greek relations. If Turkey returns to the community of responsible nations, both Washington and Athens might embrace it. Until that time, however, both should treat Turkey like the rogue nation it has become. – Ekathimerini
Mordechai Kedar writes: To sum up the situation, the Arab world — that part of it that sees Israel as the only hope in dealing with Iran — does not appreciate the expectation that it must mortgage its future and its very existence to the internal fighting between the PLO and Hamas. And let us not forget that Egypt and Jordan have signed peace agreements with Israel, moved outside the circle of war for the “liberation of Palestine,” and forsaken their Palestinian Arab “brothers,” leaving them to deal with the problem on their own. – Algemeiner
Michael Rubin writes: In Syria, Afghanistan, and now Iraq, Trump and Pompeo are showing that terror works and that no one should trust the United States. Already, Russia is taking that lesson to Saudi Arabia and Egypt as it tries to peel away allies and end decades-long alliances. Trump may rail against “endless wars” but he should consider what the world would look like if the United States has neither alliances nor the trust necessary to build them. – The National Interest
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Michael Rubin writes: Under no circumstances, however, should Trump and Pompeo undercut America’s strategic posture or undermine an election that, in combination with Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani’s recent statements, is guaranteed to undercut the legitimacy of those groups most corrosive to Iraqi sovereignty and Iraq’s recovery. It’s not too late for Pompeo to clarify his statements to underscore America’s continued commitment to Iraq and highlight to both Iraq and the region the benefit that the strategic partnership brings to Iraq and the broader region. – Washington Examiner
Senior Chinese Communist party officials have been sending an ominous message to private sector entrepreneurs in recent weeks. In a series of policy announcements and meetings, they have emphasised that private companies have an important role to play in “United Front work” — a euphemism for efforts aimed at ensuring that non-party organisations and entities support the party’s top policy objectives as well as its iron grip on power. – Financial Times
William Alan Reinsch writes: Decoupling will grow because both governments want it to and because some companies will find it in their economic interest, but it will be incomplete. That is not likely to change regardless of who wins the November election or as long as Xi Jinping remains in power. Unfortunately, that means we are heading for a fragmented global economy driven by government policy and increasingly separate internets driven by divergent internet governance policies. – Center for Strategic and International Studies
Daniel F. Runde, Richard M. Rossow, Christopher H. Metzger, Blair F. Sullivan, Robert Carlson write: CSIS is pleased to release a new research report, “Creative Economies in the Indo-Pacific and Covid-19,” that lays out findings from this research while also highlighting how Taiwan can operationalize its New Southbound Policy by tapping into the region’s potential for the creative sector, and supplementing the United States’ efforts to secure a free and open Indo-Pacific. Moreover, this study of creative industries in the Indo-Pacific region also demonstrates the central role of creative industries in driving a more resilient global economic recovery from Covid-19. – Center for Strategic and International Studies
If the commandant of the Marine Corps has focused his attention in his first year on the job tackling a Force Design 2030 effort to reshape how the Marine Corps gears up for a modern battlefield, the next year will focus on the training and manning issues that follow – ensuring the entire man, train and equip portfolio are brought up to date, the head of Marine Corps training said. – USNI News
David Barno and Nora Bensahel write: For these reasons, we’ve spent the past four years thinking about whether the U.S. military is adaptable enough for the wars it will face in the future. And though the U.S. military certainly has many strengths, our assessment of its adaptability in Iraq and Afghanistan, and in the three critical areas of doctrine, technology, and leadership, lead us to be very concerned that it will not be adaptable enough to prevail. – War on the Rocks
​

Frederico Bartels and Patty-Jane Geller write: As the Department wrestles with the implementation of the National Defense Strategy and shaping the force for the reality of great-power competition, it is imperative that Congress act with the proper urgency in crafting its Defense appropriations bill to fulfill its role in the endeavor. – Heritage Foundation
Stephen Tankel writes: The over-militarization of U.S. counter-terrorism efforts has had pernicious consequences both for these efforts and the U.S. military. Focusing on interstate strategic competition requires investing the mental energy necessary to develop a more sustainable approach to counter-terrorism. […]It is understandable for Defense Department leadership to want to turn the page on counter-terrorism, but equally critical that they realize the page won’t turn itself and that there are risks to closing the book too quickly. – War on the Rocks
Weary of Netanyahu, Benny Gantz delivers last ultimatum
Having lost all trust in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Benny Gantz has now delivered an ultimatum on the 2021 state budget.
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ISLAM REIGNS IN FRANCE, FOREFUL RAPE OF CHRISTIAN GIRLS & NAVY ACQUISITIONS REVIEW

9/27/2020

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The 'Nevertheless' Club and the World  by Amir Taheri
Is It Inevitable That After Brexit Scots Will Quit United Kingdom?Time, Says Our Brexit Diariest, for Boris Johnson To Honor ‘Old Fashioned’ Ideas He Once Extolled
By STEPHEN MacLEAN, Special to the Sun | September 26, 2020
https://www.nysun.com/foreign/is-it-inevitable-that-scots-quit-uk-after-brexit/91274/
"Centralization is the death-blow of public freedom." So Benjamin Disraeli declared. "It is the citadel of the oligarchs from which, if once erected, it will be impossible to dislodge them." So why is Boris Johnson flouting this most cherished conservative principle?
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Hold Russia accountable for latest chemical weapons attack
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