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EMERGING THREAT ASSESSMENT
GLOBAL STRIKE MEDIA.COM 
NORTH AMERICA 

IRANIAN ESCALATION AFTER US TREASURY SANCTIONS BEGIN

10/27/2018

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Why a strategic port in Iran was exempted from sanctions
BY KAMBAIZ RAFI
For the US, it makes more sense to allow India to continue developing Chabahar port than for China to 'hijack' yet another strategically important port
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FDD:  IRAN'S CYBER ECONOMIC WARFARE RISING
FDD:  US HAS GAPS IN ITS SANCTIONS REGIME
FDD:  FIXING GAPS
FDD
FDD:  IRAN SEEKS TO BIDE TIME
FDD:  NO ROOM FOR US CONCESSIONS TO IRAN
​FDD:  A RESOURCE GUIDE FOR GERMAN FOREIGN POLICY WITH IRAN
Trump hesitant to cut off Iran from international financial system 
The Donald Trump administration is reconsidering plans to compel the international financial messaging network SWIFT to cut off Iranian banks amid push-back from European allies. The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday that the Trump administration is holding internal discussions that indicate that the United States may relent on its pressure on the Belgium-based network ahead of the reimposition of sanctions on Iran’s oil industry next month. SWIFT sanctions on Iran were lifted as part of the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, which the United States withdrew from in May.  Read More  ​
David Albright, Olli Heinonen, and Andrea Stricker write: The documentation indicates that Iran’s nuclear weaponization efforts did not stop after 2003, following a so-called “halt order.” To conduct this assessment of the evolution of Iran’s nuclear weapons program, the Institute obtained vital archive documentation from the media and during interviews with senior Israeli intelligence officials familiar with the archive. In this report, we assess and compare new information with other public documents and information. – Institute for Science and International Security
Eric Brewer writes: Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif stated that if Europe could not meet Iran’s demands for sustained economic benefits following the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear deal, Tehran would be within its rights to resume some of its nuclear activities. […]If the Trump administration is to successfully manage the risks in this new environment while it tries to reach a better deal, there are six points that the White House, Congress, and American public would do well to keep in mind. – War on the Rocks
The SWIFT banking network, the backbone for international monetary transfers, said Monday it has suspended several Iranian banks from its service, after the United States reimposed nuclear sanctions on Tehran. – Agence France-Presse

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani pledged Monday that his country would not buckle under the weight of newly re-imposed U.S. sanctions, calling the penalties on its oil and banking sectors “unfair” and “against the law, U.N. resolutions and international accords.” – Politico

U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday said he wants to impose sanctions on Iran’s oil gradually, citing concerns about shocking energy markets and causing global price spikes. – Reuters

President Trump will let countries helping to overhaul three Iranian nuclear facilities escape sanctions that have been reimposed as part of the U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear agreement, the State Department confirmed Monday. – Washington Examiner

Michael Rubin writes: The basis of President Trump’s strategy on Iran is to coerce change through economic warfare. There are reasons to agree or disagree with Trump’s pull-out from the Iran nuclear deal, but to argue either that Tehran is impervious to pressure or that trade with Iran provides the best path to moderation are both false. – Washington Examiner
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Stephanie Segal writes: The immediate impacts of sanctions on the Iranian economy are apparent–oil production and GDP growth are collapsing, Iran’s currency is weakening, and inflation is picking up. Longer-term impacts remain to be seen, including how partner countries adapt to forceful unilateral action by the United States and the role of the dollar as the world’s preeminent reserve currency. – Center for Strategic & International Studies
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AFRICOM HITS AL-QAEDA STRONGHOLDS THROUGHOUT JUBBA VALLEY SOMALIA & RUSSIA TAKES HOLD OF THE AFRICAN CONGO

10/27/2018

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AFRICOM continues to strike Shabaab strongholds
Russia not helping to stabilize Central African Republic: France
(Reuters) Russia's expanding influence in Central African Republic (CAR), a former French colony, over the past months is not likely to stabilize the country, French Defense Minister Florence Parly told weekly Jeune Afrique.
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AN IRANIAN FAMINE CALLED YEMEN & THE US DISCOVERS ASSAD'S CHEMICAL WEAPONS LEADERSHIP, ITS AIR FORCE

10/26/2018

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 Yemen crisis: Half of population facing 'pre-famine conditions'
(BBC) Yemen has been devastated by a conflict that escalated in 2015, when a Saudi-led coalition intervened after the rebel Houthi movement seized control of much of the west of the country and forced President Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi to flee abroad. 
Gregory Waters writes: The Tiger Forces is a Syrian Air Intelligence-affiliated militia fighting for the Syrian government and backed by Russia. While often described as the Syrian government’s elite fighting force, this research portrays a starkly different picture. […]Despite a decentralized command structure, the Tiger Forces’ capabilities far exceed any other unit currently fighting in the Syrian civil war. – Middle East Institute
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US POLICY IN SYRIA:  STOPPING THE SHIA CRESCENT & WHAT IS PUTIN'S POLICY AIM?

10/26/2018

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Inside the remote US base in Syria central to combating ISIS and countering Iran
(NBC News) Al Tanf's location is key to its role in preventing the Iranians from gaining a firmer foothold in the region. The base sits in the heart of what Iran hopes will be part of a "Shia Crescent," a continuous land bridge linking Iran through Iraq and Syria to Lebanon.

Confronting the axis: Is the US prepared for a regional war with Iran and its allies?
(Defense News) Somewhere in Tehran, Qassem Soleimani is probably smiling. And looking at developments across the Middle East over the past month, it would be hard to blame the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Qods Force commander for feeling cheerful.
Marwan Kabalan writes: Putin’s remarks on Idlib were also an indication that his ultimate goal in Syria is to end all foreign military presence there, including Turkish, French, and particularly the US. […]With all these different agendas, interests and objectives, it is extremely difficult to see how the main powers in the Syrian conflict can reach an agreement. In the end, even if they do, it will certainly be at the expense of the Syrian people – Al Jazeera
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TEAM TRUMP SAILS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF TAIWAN WHILE PUTIN TARGETS EUROPEAN STATES HOSTING US NUKES

10/26/2018

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Beijing Tells South China Sea Command: Prepare for War 
// Annabelle Timsit
​
The Southern Theatre Command must "concentrate preparations for fighting a war," Chinese president Xi Jinping said this week.
Putin: Russia will target nations hosting U.S. missiles
(Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty) "If they are deployed in Europe, we will naturally have to respond in kind," Putin said at a news conference. "The European nations that would agree to that should understand that they would expose their territory to the threat of a possible retaliatory strike." 
 
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JOHN BOLTON GOES TO THE SOUTH CAUCASUS

10/26/2018

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https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/head-of-azerbaijan-s-military-arrives-in-israel-for-first-official-visit-1.6591615

 Bolton says US will continue to support peaceful solution of Azerbaijan and Armenia conflict
(Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty) White House national-security adviser John Bolton says the United States will continue to support a peaceful resolution to the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. 
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MULTI SPEED EUROPE & THE DECLINE OF THE WEST MEANS EUROPE

10/26/2018

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Hungary and Poland’s multispeed Europe 
Dalibor Rohac and Martin Miszerak | Politico.eu 
THE DECLINE OF THE WEST
Europe's Crisis of Survival
Edward Lucas writes: Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have all had problems with their banks. […]The biggest beneficiary of all this is Russia. The Kremlin loathes the idea of its former colonies becoming economic or political success stories. So it uses money to attack them. The financial malpractice pays an immediate dividend in terms of successful money-laundering, but also a political one in terms of damaged reputations. Local banks, in short, are a far graver threat to national security than the enemy’s tanks. – European Policy Analysis
Edward Lucas writes: It is time to drop the fiction that Russia and China are normal countries with which we can conduct normal diplomacy. They should be seen as rogue states, akin to North Korea or Iran. […]They are not interested in playing by the rules of the international system. They are interested in exploiting and abusing those rules for political ends. Once we realize that, we have a chance of defending ourselves—and our allies. – European Policy Analysis
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THE NAGGING CHALLENGE THAT IS CENTRAL AMERICA

10/26/2018

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The migrant caravan is a symptom of nagging challenges in Central America
Roger F. Noriega | AEIdeas 
President Trump has said he will cut US aid to Central American countries because of their governments’ failure to turn back the growing march. Those aid programs are aimed at helping countries improve security and jump-start economic growth. Without progress on these fronts, the migrants will keep coming.
James Stavridis writes: A recent bit of high-visibility branding by National Security Adviser John Bolton created quite a reaction in Latin America. In a forceful speech delivered to South Florida anti-Castro true believers, he called Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela a “troika of tyranny.” […]Instead of over-focusing on the troika of tyranny, our energies should go into working with our Three Amigos in South America: Argentina, Brazil and Colombia. – Bloomberg
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ONE YEAR AGO:  XI, BECOMES MAO

10/24/2018

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MISSING NIGERIAN SEPARATIST LEADER SHOWS UP IN ISRAEL, ETHIOPIA SIGNS COMPACT & EBOLA OUTBREAKS AGAIN

10/24/2018

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Missing Nigerian separatist leader Nnamdi Kanu has resurfaced in Israel more than a year after soldiers stormed his home. “I’m in Israel,” Mr Kanu said on Sunday in a broadcast on his outlawed pirate radio station – Radio Biafra. – BBC News
Ethiopia and the separatist Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) have signed a peace deal, ending the ONLF’s 34-year armed rebellion. The deal stipulates that both sides will cease hostilities, with the ONLF agreeing to use peaceful political means to pursue independence for Ethiopia’s Somali-speaking region – known as Ogaden. – BBC News
​

Health teams responding to Congo’s latest Ebola outbreak are attacked three or four times a week on average, a level of violence unseen in the country’s nine previous outbreaks of the deadly virus, the health ministry said Monday. – Associated Press
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THE CURRENT ASSESSMENT AGAINST ISIS & HOW BEST TO UNDERSTAND VIETNAM'S EASTER OFFENSIVE IN 1972

10/23/2018

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Assessment of Current Efforts to Fight the Islamic State
By Ido Levy, Divergent Options: “International and regional forces have all but deprived the Islamic State (IS) of its territory, yet its apocalyptic ideology allows it to continue fighting despite these losses. IS’s goal to prepare the world for the end times does not require territory and will serve as a justification for its surviving members to maintain insurgencies in the Middle East and elsewhere."

The Easter Offensive of 1972
By W. R. Baker, Small Wars Journal: “The Easter Offensive of 1972, coming at the end of the Vietnam War, is usually an afterthought in most histories of the conflict, primarily because most U.S. troops had already left the country..” ​
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AEI 'CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT' MAPS OUT AFRICOM SUCCESS IN EAST AFRICA & HOW THE US DESTROYS TRANSNATIONAL NETWORKS IN LATIN AMERICA

10/21/2018

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CRISIS GROUP:  PRIORITIES FOR THE AFRICAN UNION
AFRICAN CENTER FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES
Al Qaeda’s affiliate in East Africa, al Shabaab, has weathered intensified U.S. direct action operations to retain its area of operations in Somalia and eastern Kenya, as a new map by Analyst James Barnett demonstrates. Al Shabaab continues to undermine the Somali state, conducting twin suicide bombings this week to derail a contentious regional election in southern Somalia. The latest attacks come one year after the deadliest terror attack in Somalia’s history, in which al Shabaab killed nearly 600 people in Mogadishu.

The Salafi-jihadi movement, which includes al Qaeda and ISIS, is growing in West Africa. The Mali-based branch of al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) is promoting its expansion into Burkina Faso, where attacks targeting security forces and the mining industry have escalated this year. Another group, the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS), has also expanded in Mali and Burkina Faso, as Senior Analyst Emily Estelle illustrates in a new graphic.

In the coming weeks, Research Fellow Katherine Zimmerman will release a report on how Salafi-jihadi groups have adapted to U.S. counterterrorism policy. Revisit Zimmerman’s work in “America’s Real Enemy: The Salafi-Jihadi Movement,” in which she argues that the U.S. has misdefined its enemy in the war on terror.
Unraveling the web: Dismantling transnational organized crime networks in the Americas
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what tyrants fear most:  michael ledeen on revolutionary fevor

10/20/2018

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CHINA GROWS BITTER OVER TRADE WAR

10/19/2018

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how_trump’s_trade_war_is_driving_china_nuts_-_politico_magazine.pdf
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CHINA'S CENTRAL BANK SCRAMBLES TO PUMP CASH INTO ECONOMY
CNBC:  CHINA AFRAID OF TRADE WAR
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UK GUARDIAN:  CHINA PUMPING 100 BILLION INTO ECONOMY
CHINA BEGINS TO BLINK ON THE TRADE WAR
 Pence's little-noticed speech marked a new US realism toward China
(Washington Examiner) A seismic shot across the bow, Vice President Mike Pence’s Oct. 4 speech on U.S.-China policy garnered surprisingly little coverage. But historians may well mark it as a significant turning point in great power relations. 
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ARMENIA VS. IRAN

10/19/2018

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https://jamestown.org/program/pashinyan-formulates-armenias-new-iran-strategy/@Georgetown
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IS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA LOST

10/19/2018

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AFRICOM KILLS 60 TERRORISTS IN SOMALIA & EXAMINING US NIGER DRONE BASE IN WEST AFRICA

10/17/2018

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AFRICOM kills 60 Shabaab fighters in largest strike in Somalia since 2017
A large concentration of Shabaab fighters a significant distance from its typical support zone in Jubba River Valley demonstrates the Al Qaeda affiliate's resilience across Somalia.
U.S., NIGER:
New U.S. Drone Base in Niger Worth the Cost?

By Akhilesh Pillalamarri, Defense News: “The cost of operating the facility, located in the middle of the Sahara desert in Agadez, Niger, is estimated at $30 million a year.”
​
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INDIA BALANCES AMERICA OFF RUSSIA & A LOOK AT TRUMP'S NATIONAL SECURITY DOCUMENT

10/16/2018

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Between a Cold War Ally and an Indo-Pacific Partner: India's U.S.-Russia Balancing Act by Tanvi Madan​

What Has Become Clear to You? Reflections on Assessing the National Defense Strategy by Mara Karlin and Christopher Skaluba​
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MATTIS GOES TO VIETNAM:  COUNTERING CHINA

10/15/2018

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By making a rare second trip this year to Vietnam, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis is signaling how intensively the Trump administration is trying to counter China’s military assertiveness. 
USA or China as world leader? Asians overwhelmingly prefer the USA, study finds
(South China Morning Post) When it comes to global leadership, Asia prefers the United States over China by a wide margin, according to data compiled by the Pew Research Center. 
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INDIA HOLDS HANDS WITH RUSSIA WATCHING CHINA: GEOPOLITICS OF THE SUBCONTINENT

10/13/2018

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https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/05/india-wants-to-buy-russian-missiles-to-counter-china-influence.html
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THE PRC BLEEDS:  THE DISAPPEARANCE OF INTERPOL CHIEF IN CHINA

10/13/2018

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RUSSIAN NEWS:  FALL OF GOVERNORS, PUTIN'S PUBLIC RATING, CONSTITUTIONAL REFORMS BEGIN & THE S-300 GOES TO SYRIA

10/13/2018

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Fall of the Governors, Putin’s Rating, Constitutional Reform Initiative
  • Washington Post, The Kremlin wants a role in Afghanistan 30 years after the Soviet withdrawal, by Missy Ryan and Amie Ferris-Rotman
Moscow’s S-300 Double Bluff in Syria 
By Roger McDermott, Eurasia Daily Monitor: “Such systems, apart from their role in air defense, form an integral part of the Russian Armed Forces’ stand-off strike capability, feed into a layered air defense, and constitute important elements of Russia’s anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) strategies.”
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WASHINGTON TAKES ON IRAN IN SOUTH AMERICA

10/13/2018

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https://www.meforum.org/articles/2018/washington-s-silent-war-against-hezbollah-in-latin
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UK CHATHAM HOUSE:  TRENDS IN INTERNATONAL RELATIONS & VICTOR DAVIS HANSON ON IRAN-RUSSIAN-CHINESE TAKING ON THE PAX AMERICANA

10/10/2018

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The Two Faces of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula by Gregory Johnsen​

U.S. Policy Options for Maduro’s Venezuela: Benign Engagement, Not Benign Neglect
 by Fabiana Sofia Perera
Prosperity, Security and Stability in the Pacific.
A New Era For The China-Russia-US Triangle
by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness
Nearly a half-century ago, President Richard Nixon’s secretary of state, Henry Kissinger, established a successful U.S. strategy for dealing with America’s two most dangerous rivals. He sought closer ties to both the Soviet Union, with its more than 7,000 nuclear weapons, and Communist China, with the world’s largest population.
No Eclipse
by LTC Marcus Ferrara via Analysis
An American crisis of confidence, augmented by effective Chinese propaganda, has driven the narrative of the end of the “American Century,” replaced with a Chinese one. An analysis of such metrics as demography, social stability, geography, the environment, economics, military strength and capability, and soft power belies the concept of American decline and shows that China is beset with substantial internal and international challenges that indicate continued United States dominance in world affairs.
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ISLAMISTS MONEY FOR STATE WIDE POLITICAL CANDIDATES

10/9/2018

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MEF
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    BEYOND COUNTER-TERRORISM
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