Russian Aircraft Carrier Kuznetsov & MiG29  Moscow’s moves. Remember the Admiral Kuznetsov, the aging and troubled Russian aircraft carrier deployed off the coast of Syria to strike rebels battling the Assad regime? It appears it has lost its planes. Weeks after one of its jets crashed into the sea, Jane’s digs up satellite images that show its warplanes have been flown to the main Russian air base in Syria, where they’re not in danger of ending up in the drink.
Kathleen Weinburger writes: The U.S. must respond to Russia’s behavior globally. Putin views the areas along Russia’s periphery as a single theater of operations. These regions, in addition to Russia’s domestic economic sphere, must be treated as a series of interconnected points of leverage that affect Putin’s ability to undermine U.S. national security interests. The U.S. must maintain and enhance military and political support for its allies in order to protect its interests in areas of strategic importance and preserve its freedom to operate to ensure its national security. This task will be critical for America’s global leadership role in the years to come. – Institute for the Study of War
Peter Huessy writes: Even if one thinks a dual track policy can be implemented, JASTA makes that poor policy choice even worse. Supporters have proposed that JASTA be amended to explicitly limit the award of damages to only those arising from the 9/11 attacks. However, this leaves off the table punishing other state sponsors of terrorism including Iran-- which should be the object of U.S. counterterrorism policy, as well as all other terror attacks before and since 9/11. – Real Clear Defense
Kimberly Dozier reports: Preparing for a multi-generational, international fight against terrorists, U.S. special operations chiefs are launching a new counterterrorist nerve center at an undisclosed location in the Middle East to fight the so-called Islamic State, al Qaeda, and any other terrorist actor. – The Daily Beast David Ignatius writes: Given the turf wars and interagency rivalries that have long surrounded U.S. Special Operations forces, President Obama probably didn’t do the commandos any favors when he delivered his last big military speech at the base in Tampa where they’re headquartered. – Washington Post
Eli Lake writes: There are risks in embracing an ideological war against radical Islam, as opposed to a long war against terrorists. But it has the advantage of defining conditions for victory. The long war will end when Islamic fascism is defeated and discredited. What's more, Trump can set America on this path without engaging in the cycle of regime change and nation-building he has explicitly rejected. Not a bad plan for a guy who keeps asking why America doesn't win anymore. – Bloomberg View
Michael Auslin writes: A Trump presidency cannot be expected either to resolve all of Asia’s problems or to determine the region’s future. But America plays a vital role in the Indo-Pacific region, one that is welcomed by most of its states. Walking away from half the world is a recipe for disaster. If maintaining stability is taken as the primary goal of the Trump Administration, then a prudent policy of supporting our allies and seeking to engage our adversaries with firmness, while developing a community of interests among liberal and liberalizing nations, may prevent an outbreak of instability and the need for even greater U.S. involvement. – Nikkei Asian Review
 Pakistan: Indian shelling across the Kashmir border with Pakistan has killed at least 12 civilians. Artillery fire hit a passenger bus and a mortar shell killed two inside a house. Pakistan said they were firing back on Indian military positions. The exchange came during a period of escalating tensions in the region, and deadly attacks have risen in recent weeks.
 The bodies of nine men with signs of torture were discovered in the poor, hyper-violent Mexican state of Guerrero, the state government said on Monday. - Reuters
Senior Obama administration officials in their final days in office are seeking to cover up key details of the Iran nuclear deal from Congress, according to documents and sources who spoke to the Washington Free Beacon about continued efforts by the White House to block formal investigations into secret diplomacy with Tehran that resulted in a $1.7 billion cash payment by the United States. – Washington Free Beacon
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney “is under active and serious consideration” to be Donald Trump’s secretary of state, Vice President-elect Mike Pence said Sunday, a move that would moderate the direction of the president-elect’s national security team inside a rapidly expanding administration. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
The retired 4-star Marine Corps general who memorably said “it’s fun to shoot some people” is a leading candidate to become Team Trump’s Secretary of Defense. – The Daily Beast
Retired Army Gen. David Petraeus, who stepped down as CIA chief amid the scandal of an extramarital affair and pleaded guilty to divulging classified information, has emerged as a top contender as secretary of State in the incoming Trump administration. – USA Today
 Caucasian warlord, mixed martial arts enthusiast, scourge of any opposition — Ramzan A. Kadyrov, the autocratic leader of a turbulent mountain republic, wants to convince the rest of Russia that its image of him is all wrong. Borrowing from Donald J. Trump’s playbook, Mr. Kadyrov, the leader of Chechnya, is starring this fall in a reality TV competition called “The Team.” – New York Times
Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed US President-elect Donald Trump is willing to mend ties, but key US lawmakers are striking a defiant chord against Trump’s open admiration for Putin and calling for caution, if not tough action. – Defense News When it comes to relations with Vladimir Putin’s Russia, Mikhail Khodorkovsky has blunt advice for Europe: Wake up — and stop playing nice. – Politico EU Moscow will deploy S-400 surface-to-air missiles and nuclear-capable Iskander systems in the exclave of Kaliningrad in retaliation for NATO deployments, a senior pro-Kremlin lawmaker was quoted as saying on Monday. - Reuters The Russian military has deployed state-of-the art anti-shipping missiles in the nation's westernmost Baltic region, the Interfax news agency reported Monday, a move that comes amid spiraling tensions in Russia-West ties. – Associated Press
John Bolton, the former ambassador to the United Nations and a contender to be the next secretary of state, argued Thursday that the United States should support a push for regime change in Iran, calling it the “only long-term solution” to threats the country poses in the Middle East. - Politico
David Ignatius writes: Trump needs to be careful. Unless he’s very foolish, he will want to be a good and successful president. He inherited a nation that is still the world’s only superpower. But you can hear the fabric of American leadership beginning to tear apart around the world. We have hungry competitors who have been waiting for America to stumble, and now they think their moment has arrived. Trump does need help. – Washington Post
Eli Lake reports: For years, many Republicans and conservatives have charged that President Barack Obama was shielding embarrassing intelligence and policy details about Iran in order to support the nuclear deal reached last year. With Donald Trump's upset victory, the party of Lincoln will have an opportunity to declassify and disclose this information. While no decisions have been made, two early picks to Trump's cabinet suggest this is going to happen. – Bloomberg View
Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) fiercely opposed President Obama's nuclear deal with Iran, but he says "it would be wrong to repeal" it now. – The Hill Iran will ship about 11 metric tons of heavy water out of the country in the next couple of days, according to people familiar with the plans, defusing a conflict with the U.S. and others over the Iranian nuclear deal. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)  A new study estimates foreign direct investment between the U.S. and China is already two to four times the amount shown by official statistics, and its authors hope the findings will encourage politicians to forge even deeper bilateral links. – WSJ’s China Real Time Report
If you want to grow uneasy about the world, read the US-China Commission’s annual report to Congress. China, while it continues to enjoy robust economic growth, faces a major strategic challenge. Strategically, the biggest threat facing China right now — and the rest of the world given how integrated China is to the global economy — is the risk posed by China’s enormous corporate debt. – Breaking Defense Read the US-China Commission’s 2016 Report to Congress – US-China Commission
 The Pentagon has tracked scores of Islamic State militants escaping fierce fighting in Libya’s coastal city of Sirte and has begun laying the groundwork for expanded air attacks to follow and kill them, part of a final push by the Obama administration to blunt multiplying militant threats across the broader Middle East. – Washington Post The International Monetary Fund approved a $12 billion loan for Egypt on Friday, in a move intended to stave off economic collapse in the Arab world’s most populous nation as it grapples with a plunging currency, soaring inflation and shortages of staple foods. – New York Times Attacks against Christians [in Egypt] have intensified as mistrust between Christians and Muslims deepens. Today, community leaders and human rights activists say the smallest of matters are setting off violence, often pitting neighbor against neighbor. – Washington Post The key difference between Libya and Syria in the removal of chemical weapons and their precursors from their countries was the trust, transparency and openness that Libyans showed—from removal to transport to destruction. – USNI News To this end, what is the intelligence apparatus the U.S. is relying on to develop targets and support its operations in Libya against ISIS in support of the GNA? On a broad level, a spokeswoman from AFRICOM told C4ISRNET that the U.S. is “providing support to GNA-aligned forces, to include key information about the fight in Sirte, and manned and unmanned airstrikes against ISIL-Libya targets inside Sirte. We have a range of capabilities at various locations in the region that will allow us to carry out these airstrikes, and are done so with proper notification and coordination of our partner nations.” – Defense News
[T]he Chinese government’s impressions of Trump — as a pragmatist who will make business deals with China but play down geopolitics; as an isolationist who will pull back from the Asia-Pacific region; as a realist who won’t bug them about human rights — could end up being seriously misguided. – Washington Post
Reuben Johnson writes: President Trump is clearly going to have to deal with a far more aggressive PRC, with an increasingly well-supplied military that is by all appearances begging for a fight. Conflicts in the South China Sea, the continued problems on the Korean peninsula, China's leader Xi Jinping being handed near-dictatorial powers—none of these bode well for a peaceful, cooperative future. – The Weekly Standard
Derek Scissors writes: Chinese behavior and Trump campaign rhetoric make it almost impossible to open the next phase of the bilateral economic relationship with more U.S. cooperation. The Trump administration should bear in mind that Chinese domestic politics will be sensitive next year. But it should make clear that China must become a better partner, or the economic relationship will shrink. – China File
 President Obama said Monday that the historic accord to curb Iran's ability to develop nuclear weapons — the most important arms control agreement in decades — is working, and he expressed hope that Donald Trump will keep it intact. – Los Angeles Times Seventy-six national security experts urged President-elect Donald J. Trump on Monday to reverse his hostility to the nuclear agreement signed with Iran last year and to use it as a tool to ease other tensions with the country. – New York Times One maxim Trump will quickly learn: Washington now has very limited power to isolate and punish Iran. Trump may be able to follow through on pledges to tear up the U.S. portion of last year’s nuclear deal, which seeks to rein in Tehran’s nuclear program in exchange for easing international sanctions. – Washington Post’s World Views President Obama cautioned his successor against re-opening the debate over the Iran nuclear deal, saying that it was easy for Donald Trump to promise he would rip up the deal when he was just a candidate. But now, when the president-elect just "looks at the facts," he will see the deal is working, Obama argued. - Politico U.S. officials are expressing concern about a budding arms pact between Iran and Russia estimated to be worth more than $10 billion, according to State Department officials who spoke to the Washington Free Beacon and expressed alarm over the “increased Iranian military capability.” – Washington Free Beacon Nearly a dozen Arab nations accused Iran on Monday of sponsoring “terrorism” throughout the Middle East while increasing support for jihadist groups since signing the international nuclear deal last summer. – Washington Free Beacon Eli Lake reports: President Barack Obama's signature foreign policy achievement, the Iran nuclear deal, is in trouble. On Wednesday, the International Atomic Energy Agency noted that Iran had exceeded its allowed stockpile of "heavy water," a substance used to cool plutonium reactors, for the second time since the agreement went into effect...If Hillary Clinton had won the election, the excess heavy water would likely remain in the non-compliance category. But Donald Trump will be the next president, and he has promised to enforce the 2015 deal with vigor. - Bloomberg View Jenna Lifhits reports: The United Nations' nuclear watchdog may have delayed releasing a report which revealed that Iran has again violated last summer's landmark nuclear deal amid efforts by the Obama administration to protect the deal, a top nuclear expert told THE WEEKLY STANDARD. – The Weekly Standard Fred Fleitz writes: Trump critics have argued that renegotiating or terminating the nuclear deal would isolate the United States and hurt America’s global stature. But in reality, President Obama’s foreign policy has already undermined America’s reputation around the world. Fixing or killing the Iran nuclear deal will be President Trump’s first step toward restoring America’s global leadership. – National Review Online Ilan Berman writes: The advent of a Trump White House is likely to augur a seismic shift in the United States’ approach to Iran. Just how fundamental a change it will be remains to be seen, but the incoming president clearly has the motivation to roll back the Obama administration’s policy toward the Islamic Republic. Just as clearly, he has the means to begin doing so. – Foreign Affairs’ Snapshots
Emily Landau and Shimon Stein write: In conclusion, negotiations with Iran have demonstrated the centrality of U.S. involvement in regional nonproliferation efforts and hence the responsibility of the United States to take the lead in continuing to fight against proliferation in the Middle East. This goal can be advanced by setting a clear arms control agenda that not only reflects the lessons learned from the Iran nuclear negotiations, but also recognizes the impact of changing global and regional trends, and the need to conduct new conversations with both Russia and China. – Los Angeles Times Alan Goldsmith writes: Iran is putting America and American lives at risk. Now is not the time to respond by abandoning our longstanding, leading law to address that risk. Now is the time to reauthorize ISA for years to come, strictly enforce the nuclear deal, and push back hard against Iranian violations and aggression in all forms. – Times of Israel |
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