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EMERGING THREAT ASSESSMENT
GLOBAL STRIKE MEDIA.COM 
NORTH AMERICA 

DJIBOUTI THE NEW CASABLANCA, NIGERIA GOES TO BOKO HARAM & CENTCOM MIS-UNDERESTIMATES TALIBAN STRENGTH

11/26/2018

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 China’s Djibouti base: A one year update
(The Diplomat) China’s first overseas military base provides an interesting test case for its global ambitions.
Israelis to US: Take On China Around Djibouti
Islamic State claims control over village in northeast Nigeria
ISWA continues to defy announcements by the Nigerian government of its defeat. 
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Analysis: US military grossly underestimates Taliban, al Qaeda force levels in Afghanistan
A South African mercenary who helped the Nigerian army recapture huge amounts of territory from Boko Haram insurgents has accused the country’s government of squandering the gains it made with his help. – The Telegraph
Djibouti: the Casablanca of a new Cold War
BY BERTIL LINTNER
Nowhere in the world are there so many military bases run by rival nations in such close proximity than in East Africa's Djibouti, where intrigue is rife and espionage is de rigueur 
Risks bubbling beneath Djibouti’s foreign bases
BY BERTIL LINTNER
Political and economic stability has underpinned the tiny African nation's attractiveness to foreign militaries but several underlying issues could soon break the calm

CHINA:
Beijing's New Navy

By Robert Farley, The Diplomat: “Although it largely escaped the notice of American audiences, Dante Lam's Operation Red Sea served to introduce the Chinese public to its new navy.”
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CENTRAL ASIA & MIDDLE EAST ECONOMIES FAILING

11/22/2018

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Middle East, Central Asia economies fail to impress
 How the US can give Uzbekistan options
(The Diplomat) America’s goal should be to ensure the Uzbeks have alternative options to dealing with Russia and China.
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AFRICA'S INTERNAL DEVELOPMENT, AFRICOM HITS SOMALIA TERROR LISTS & IRAN USURPS SOUTH AMERICA IN CARACAS

11/22/2018

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AFRICOM launches 2 more strikes against Shabaab in central Somalia
The US military is clearly targeting Shabaab in Mudug province. There have been five strikes there in the past four days and 50 Shabaab fighters are reported to have been killed in the attacks.
US military kills dozens of Shabaab fighters in 3 strikes
US considers naming Venezuela state sponsor of terror over alleged Hezbollah links  
The Donald Trump administration is considering designating Venezuela as a state sponsor of terror in part due to its alleged ties with Lebanese paramilitary group Hezbollah, the Washington Post reported Monday. Congressional hawks led by Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., have pushed to add Venezuela to the list, accusing Caracas of ties to Hezbollah and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia. Hezbollah backers Iran and Syria are already on the list.  Read More  ​
PROJECT SYNDICATE
Will Todman writes: As GCC states increase their interventions in Africa, they must continue to broaden and deepen their ties with African states. To secure their economic interests in an arena of greater international competition, they should enhance their lateral engagement with African governments significantly to ensure that their interventions are meeting African governments’ needs and priorities. – Center for Strategic & International Studies
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BEST OF GREGORY COPLEY, EDITOR & PUBLISHER OF DEFENSE AND FOREIGN AFFAIRS:  THE JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW

11/19/2018

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CHANGING DYNAMICS OF THE SALIFI MOVEMENT:  US IS LOSING THE LONG WAR

11/18/2018

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 Terrorism, tactics, and transformation: The West vs. the Salafi-jihadi movement
Seth G. Jones, Charles Vallee & Danika Newlee write: Despite the Islamic State’s loss of territory in Iraq and Syria, an increasingly diffuse Salafi-jihadist movement is far from defeated. […]For the United States, the challenge is not that U.S. officials are devoting attention and resources to dealing with state adversaries like Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. These countries present legitimate threats to the United States at home and abroad. Rath­er, the mistake would be declaring victory over ter­rorism too quickly and, as a result, shifting too many resources and too much attention away from terrorist groups when the threat remains significant. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

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UK OPENING SALVO:  PUNTS FOR BREXIT

11/15/2018

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Great Britain’s Options After Departing the European Union
By Steve Maguire, Divergent Options: “Great Britain will leave the European Union in March 2019 ending decades of political and economic integration.  This has left Britain at a strategic crossroads and the country must decide how and where to commit its military and security prowess to best achieve national objectives."
Heather A. Conley writes: After two years of positioning, posturing, and politicking, we are entering British prime minister Theresa May’s so-called endgame. The United Kingdom and the European Union has just announced that a provisional withdrawal agreement has been reached. The negotiating cards (all 500 pages of text) will now be placed on the table, first for May’s cabinet to approve the agreement (or resign) and then onto the House of Commons to vote. – Center for Strategic and International Studies
Full Challenge To Theresa May Looks Imminent
By CONRAD BLACK, Special to the Sun | November 17, 2018

https://www.nysun.com/foreign/full-challenge-to-theresa-may-looks-imminent/90465/

​Britons Await The Promise Of BrexitOur Diarist on the Week Ahead
By STEPHEN MacLEAN, Special to the Sun | November 19, 2018
https://www.nysun.com/foreign/britons-await-the-promise-of-brexit/90466/

Why Britain will take the Brexit deal, in five charts
BY DAVID P. GOLDMAN
The UK’s Economic fundamentals are in some ways worse than Italy’s, and British spite for EU rules is not enough to risk ‘hard-Brexit’-fueled capital flight 

Hold Out For a Truly Independent Britain
Editorial of The New York Sun | November 25, 2018
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https://www.nysun.com/editorials/for-a-truly-independent-britain/90474/
A "stark choice" is how the New York Times is characterizing the decision Britain's parliament will have to make now that proposed terms have been struck for its departure from the European Union. The option is, on the one hand, Prime Minister May's deal -- half-in, half-out of Europe -- or, on the other hand, what the Times calls "a chaotic exit without any deal."
Continue Reading
"The Worst Deal in History": Theresa May's Surrender  by David Brown  • 
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BEST OF GREGORY COPLEY, FOREIGN AFFAIRS & POLITICAL ECONOMY

11/15/2018

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DOES RUSSIA SPEAK FOR THE TALIBAN & LITTLE KIM TAKES OUT THE BOMBS

11/15/2018

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North Korea missile bases outed in report that uUndermines Trump
(Bloomberg) Thirteen undeclared North Korean missile operating bases were identified in a new report, undermining the Trump administration’s claims that its outreach to Pyongyang is making progress in getting Kim Jong Un’s regime to give up its nuclear weapons program. 
 
  Russia announces Taliban’s demands for US
(Washington Examiner) Afghanistan’s Taliban will negotiate with the central government in Kabul only after the United States agrees to leave the country, according to a senior Russian diplomat. 
  Is North Korea Exerting 'Asymmetric Leverage' Over China?
(The Diplomat) What if Pyongyang is using nuclearization as a means to alter the terms of its relationship with China? 
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WHY THE SOUTH CHINA SEA MATTERS NOW & THE STATUS OF TURKEY IN SYRIA

11/15/2018

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Seth Cropsey writes: While England slept before WWI, its rivals grew in power and ambition. […] Today, Americans risk the same mistake. China’s aggression mirrors Germany’s; its economic expansion has translated into political ambition – Beijing seeks to bend the world to its will. – Hudson Institute
To respond to China’s artificial islands, it’s time to recognize a real one
 Michael Rubin | Washington Examiner 
Diplomacy only works when all parties are equally invested in it. China has gotten away with treating diplomacy as a warfare strategy to tie its opponents’ hands while it acts without regard for what its diplomats may say or promise.
 US-backed fighters resume final offensive against ISIS after pause to deal with Turkish tensions
(Military Times) The U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces are returning to the battle against the Islamic State following a pause to deal with clashes between their northern troops and Turkey, which included cross-border shelling by Turkish forces.
John Lee writes: Vice President Mike Pence will be meeting with Japanese and Indian Prime Ministers Shinzo Abe and Narendra Modi while traveling to the region on behalf of President Trump for the U.S.-ASEAN Summit and Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation. […] If Pence can get these two countries on board, then it is really ‘game on’ – and the odds are firmly with America and its allies and friends. – Hudson Institute
SOUTH CHINA SEA:
U.S. Navy Strength — and a Message to Beijing

By Shibani Mahtani, The Washington Post: “ China has built a “Great Wall of SAMs” — surface-to-air missiles — that has the “potential to exert national control over international waters and airspace.””
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THE BEST OF GREGORY COPELY:  JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW

11/12/2018

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"Key take-aways from the new National Defense Strategy included: 1. The US Defense establishment would return, after almost two decades, to a recognizable military mission, and would rebuild its forces, its defense-related R&D, its doctrine, and its capabilities in line with the trajectory it had been on until the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the US, but taking into account the decline in its force structure caused by the 18-year diversion to the CT mission, and taking into account the totally transformed geopolitical and technological context;

2. To emphasize the geopolitical shift in the “competition” spectrum, the US had downgraded NATO to the second tier of its strategic alliance structures and raised to the first tier its existing and emerging alliances in the Indo-Pacific. This, by default, means the ANZUS Alliance (with Australia and New Zealand), its Japan and Republic of Korea alliances, and the emerging "Quadripartite" alliance structure linking the US with Japan, Australia, and India. Unspoken, but critical within this approach, would be — as Pres. Trump had already made clear — improved security relations with key ASEAN states and the Republic of China (ROC: Taiwan). The fact that the US has now moved to the “Indo-Pacific” contextual view, as opposed to the “Asia-Pacific” view was confirmed and important; it signals a shift in thinking1;

3. The Defense Dept. would substantially reorganize to improve flexibility, efficiency, and innovation, including improved relationship with private sector contractors. Indeed, private sector enthusiasm for working with Defense had essentially evaporated in recent years, with the exception of committed major contractors, because of the bias, difficulty, and bureaucratic morass which caused defense contracting to become something for most firms — particularly small-to-medium businesses — to avoid;

4. The document, apart from a few, non-substantive jingoistic comments, was low-key and professional and, if anything, played down the fact that it represented a total transformation of the US defense capability. Sec. Mattis presumably did not want the document to inspire concern among “competitors”, or for allies to think that the new strategic posture was anything other than a return to historical continuity;

5. The Strategy highlighted that Defense would act more frequently within an inter-agency context — a “whole-of-government” framework — rather than as a purely military instrument. This was particularly evident in the one brief paragraph devoted to the Western Hemisphere. “Supporting the US interagency lead, the Department will deepen its relations with regional countries that contribute military capabilities to shared regional and global security challenges,” it said, leaving open and ambiguous how the US would deal with the substantial growth of PRC strategic (but non-military) projection into the Caribbean and much of South and Central America;

6. With regard to Africa, the message was subtle, but clear: the Defense Dept would work to counter, among other things, “trans-national criminal activity, and illegal arms trade with limited outside assistance; and limit the malign influence of non-African powers”.

​This phrasing clearly — but without naming names — emphasized the PRC’s “malign influence”, but also that of Turkey, which has emerged as a key driver of the illegal arms trade.
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EBOLA RISES IN CONGO & LOST IN SUDAN:  A GENOCIDAL CONFLICT CONTINUES IN AFRICA

11/9/2018

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Lost in Sudan
by Cliff Smith and Sam Westrop
Christian Post 
November 06, 2018 

https://www.meforum.org/islamist-watch/articles/2018/lost-in-sudan
Congo’s latest Ebola outbreak is the worst in the country’s recorded history with 319 confirmed and probable cases, the health ministry said. – Associated Press
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A RED CHINESE GULAG EMERGES IN WESTERN CHINA

11/5/2018

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UK INDEPENDENT:  CHINESE MUSLIMS GULGAG
China's Crackdown On Muslims In Xinjiang Is Sure To Backfire
by Michael R. Auslin via The Spectator
After repeated denials, Chinese officials finally admitted last month that they have set up internment camps in the far-western province of Xinjiang, where up to one million ethnic Uighurs, almost all of whom are Muslim, are being held. Under China’s anti-terrorism law and ‘religious affairs regulation,’ the government in the Xinjiang Autonomous Region publicly introduced the ‘Regulation on De-extremification.’ What it describes is a new gulag, where re-education and the suppression of Uighur identity is its main goal.
  • "Uighur jihadist group trains with elite unit," Caleb Weiss, FDD's Long War Journal
China’s government delivered a defiant defense of its mass detentions of Muslims at a United Nations human-rights panel in Geneva on Tuesday that turned into a showdown with the U.S. and other critics of the Chinese policy. – Wall Street Journal
John Lee writes: A better-coordinated effort by the U.S. and allied nations that blends hard power with greater soft power will serve as a more effective strategy to defend freedom of navigation and uphold international law. Conceding China the soft-power advantage in shaping the historical narrative will greatly diminish prospects for an enduring and just peace in the region. – Hudson Institute 
Marc Champion writes: The U.S.-China realignment that began with President Richard Nixon’s 1972 visit to Beijing has been reversed in the most consequential geopolitical shift since the fall of the Berlin Wall. China and Russia are now as close as at any time in their 400 years of shared history. The U.S., meanwhile, has targeted both countries with sanctions and China with a trade war. – Bloomberg
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AGGRESSION ABROAD = TRUMP DOCTRINE & PUTIN'S UKRAINE

11/5/2018

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Adam Taylor writes: Even at its lows, Putin’s approval is sky high by most Western standards. Then there’s the issue of cause and effect. We can certainly theorize that Russia’s actions in Georgia and Crimea led to a “rally around the flag” effect, but was that why the Russian government pursued these actions? In both cases, Russian aggression came after a number of other events not totally under Moscow’s control. – Washington Post 
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Anne Applebaum writes: The timing might also have been chosen with an eye to the political calendar in Ukraine, which is gearing up for a presidential election next March. Perhaps the Russians want to inject a polarizing element into an already divided society; perhaps this is an answer to the Ukrainian Orthodox Church’s decision to break away from Russia; perhaps they want to provoke a postponement of the election altogether. – Washington Post
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JAPAN & INDIA DISCUSS CHINA

11/5/2018

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ISLAMIC STATE FINDS SAFE HAVEN:  PHILIPPINES

11/3/2018

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Islamic State finds safe haven in the Philippines
BY BONG S SARMIENTO
One year after the siege of Marawi, Islamic State militants from around the world continue to stream into the southern Philippine island of Mindanao 
 
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STATE DEVOTED TO RAPE CULTURE:  NORTH KOREA

11/3/2018

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MeToo’-style sexual abuse rampant across North Korea
BY ANDREW SALMON
Human Rights Watch details pervasive rape culture, but says it could be easily fixed – and slams Seoul for ignoring human rights as it engages regime
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    HOW THE SALIFI-JIHADI MOVEMENT IS WINNING
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