EMERGING THREATS U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY

MOTHER RUSSIA EXPANDS, THE POST REAGAN ORDER FAILS

11/20/2020

China's Military Incursions Around Taiwan Aren't A Sign Of Imminent Attack
by Kharis Templeman via The Diplomat
Instead, China’s military bravado represents the end state of a failed strategy.

Last week, Armenia accepted a Russia- and Turkey-backed cease-fire, ending the 45-day war with Azerbaijan. Many are outraged, but the anger is warranted, notes Michael Rubin in a National Interest op-ed. Armenia lost much of southern Nagorno-Karabakh. Moreover, the deal calls for the deployment of Russian and Turkish troops along the lines of control. For now, Azerbaijan might celebrate, and Armenia will lick its wounds, but by engaging in ethnic cleansing, Azerbaijan has set the stage for a new chapter in the conflict. Read more here.

Iran's Advances in Latin Americaby Gabriel Andrade
Middle East Quarterly
Fall 2020 (view PDF)
https://www.meforum.org/61462/iran-advances-in-latin-america

Hoover Institution Press Releases A Hinge Of History: Governance In An Emerging New World, By George P. Shultz And James Timbie
via Hoover Daily Report
The Hoover Institution has published A Hinge of History: Governance in an Emerging New World by Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford Distinguished Fellow George P. Shultz and Annenberg Distinguished Visiting Fellow James Timbie.

America Must Reshape Its Future With Nagorno-Karabakh
by Russell A. Berman via National Interest
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict may yet provide America an opening for an indirect approach to Turkey, while also pushing back against Russian expansionism.

Salafi-jihadi militants are exploiting the growing security vacuum in Ethiopia. Ethiopia’s intelligence service claimed to have arrested 14 militants linked to either al Qaeda affiliate al Shabaab or the Islamic State on November 14 for plotting attacks across Ethiopia, including in the capital.
READ THE LATEST EDITION HERE

Pacific Century: Look, Up In The Sky
interview with Kenneth Wilsbach via The Pacific Century
America’s Air Chief in the Pacific Talks About China.

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HOW THE U.S. MANAGES CHINA; PETROL MONARCHIES COLLAPSING; & A LOOK AT U.S. CIVIL MILITARY RELATIONS; FAILING BUSINESS MODELS OF U.S. UNIVERSITIES

11/10/2020

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Hal Brands explains that America cannot compete with China if it abandons the liberal order that China’s behavior threatens. When Trump’s presidency ends, prevailing in a US-China rivalry will require reinvesting in, rather than undermining, the liberal order Trump has scorned. Read here.

A SecDef Flournoy's policy priorities? She laid them out in a July oped in Defense One with co-author Kathleen Hicks, starting with the threats: "The coronavirus pandemic lays bare the fragility of our health security. Climate change threatens generations of Americans. And authoritarian states are developing sophisticated weaponry, flouting other nations' sovereignty, killing, jailing, and interning their own people, and leveraging modern technology to undermine our democracy."
Her three-part solution: "First, we must secure America's edge in the global economy by investing more substantially in the drivers of U.S. competitiveness: science and technology, research and development, STEM education, access to higher education, 21st century infrastructure like 5G-capable networks, clean energy, and a robust public health system. We also need a smart immigration policy. The United States should once again welcome foreign-born talent that pose no risks to our national security and encourage them to stay and build enterprises here in America. Second, we must repair the damage to our alliances...Third, we need a national security enterprise that is matched to future challenges…" Read the piece here.

It is tempting to assert that American policymakers should reset the US-China relationship on reciprocal terms. In a RealClearWorld op-ed, Zack Cooper and Aine Tyrrell note that reciprocity plays into Beijing’s hands in three ways. First, reciprocity can appear to excuse Beijing’s censorship and disinformation. Second, it allows China to determine the overall nature of the competition. Third, it risks undermining the very freedoms at the heart of American democracy. The reality is that espousing democratic values on the international stage is only effective if the US leads by example at home. Continue here.

The China problem that has been exposed because of COVID-19 is a subset of a more serious one. Much of the global infrastructure built in the wake of World War II such as the United Nations, NATO, and the European Union is aged, sclerotic, corrupt, and incapable of addressing the challenges of the 21st century, argues Danielle Pletka in a Horizons article. Failure to reform these institutions will eventually signal their waning power, and with their fading will go the prosperity and peace we have come to take for granted. Read the full article here.

Joe Biden has said he is committed to rejoining the Iran Nuclear Deal. Enthusiasm for reengaging with the Islamic Republic should not blind Biden to China’s presence in Iran’s Chahbahar port, notes Michael Rubin in a National Interest op-ed. It would be unfortunate if, in its efforts to restart the Iranian nuclear deal, Biden’s team inadvertently bolstered Chinese interests in the Indian Ocean basin when neither Iran’s nor China’s leaders appear sincere in their desire for rapprochement and to respect the post–World War II liberal order. Read here.

For the Gulf Arab states, the twin crises of COVID-19 and the collapse of oil prices have accelerated ongoing trends to differentiate their economic policies and force more aggressive responses to demands for job creation and market liberalization, explains Karen Young in a Global Discourse publication. The pandemic has complicated the dueling priorities of shrinking public-sector payrolls and spurring domestic demand. What emerges are trade-offs that reveal leadership priorities, targeted support, and important distinctions in the Gulf Cooperation Council’s ever-weakening body. Read more here.

Ethiopia is sliding into a civil war. In a new Critical Threats Project op-ed, Emily Estelle argues that the humanitarian consequences of such a conflict would be massive. A broader conflict could lead to famine and even greater displacement. In addition, Al Shabaab and other Salafi-jihadi groups are positioned to benefit from Ethiopia’s crisis. A civil war risks creating an environment for prolonged proxy warfare. The international community must act now. Continue here.

In a world where the US faces two major revisionist powers, Russia and China, and threats from Iran, ISIS, and North Korea, a critical edge for America is its global network of allies and strategic partners. In a new “In 60 Seconds” video, Gary Schmitt explains why assessing our allies capabilities is crucial to advancing the safety and strength of the United States. Watch the video here. RSVP to the event here.

Do those who fight America’s wars ever think civilians truly understand and appreciate their experiences? In a War on the Rocks op-ed, Kori Schake and Aine Tyrrell review Phil Klay’s novel “Missionaries” and argue that the wars US soldiers fight change the way the world sees America and how America sees itself in the world. So why do soldiers continue to fight America’s battles? Although the troops involved in the war of “Missionaries” resent being underappreciated by society, they take pride in fighting, are drawn to the heightened sensations experienced in war, and — if nothing else — see it as their job. Read the review here.

Should the former vice president wish to carry that promise over to foreign policy, he ought to lead a bipartisan effort to stop the Azerbaijani assault on Nagorno-Karabakh, argues Michael Rubin in a National Interest op-ed. Azerbaijan has shown the insincerity of both its counterterror commitments and its pledge to pursue a peaceful resolution of its dispute with Armenia. If Biden is victorious, he needs to establish a bipartisan coalition to end Azerbaijan’s free pass and descent into terror complicity. Continue here.

Is Iran Sending Weapons to Venezuela? And How Is the U.S. Responding? An Iranian cargo plane gets stranded in Senegal on its way to Caracas.

The Failing Business Model of American Universities
Eric Jansen, Quillette

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EMERGING THREAT ASSESSMENT
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MOTHER RUSSIA EXPANDS, THE POST REAGAN ORDER FAILS

HOW THE U.S. MANAGES CHINA; PETROL MONARCHIES COLLAPSING; & A LOOK AT U.S. CIVIL MILITARY RELATIONS; FAILING BUSINESS MODELS OF U.S. UNIVERSITIES

ETHIOPIA: CIVIL WAR BEGINS

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EMERGING THREAT ASSESSMENTGLOBAL STRIKE MEDIA.COM NORTH AMERICA

MOTHER RUSSIA EXPANDS, THE POST REAGAN ORDER FAILS

HOW THE U.S. MANAGES CHINA; PETROL MONARCHIES COLLAPSING; & A LOOK AT U.S. CIVIL MILITARY RELATIONS; FAILING BUSINESS MODELS OF U.S. UNIVERSITIES

ETHIOPIA: CIVIL WAR BEGINS

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What Our Clients Are Saying

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EMERGING THREAT ASSESSMENT
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NORTH AMERICA