EMERGING THREATS U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY

THE RIVALRY WITH IRAN, CHINA IN 2020 & GERMAN INSECURITY DOMINATES THE CONTINENT

12/27/2019

The Coming Iranian Pearl Harbor
quoting Victor Davis Hanson via The Epoch Times
The Iranian dictatorship may be losing its grip on power. Consequently, its historical strategy of continuous but low-level attacks on American interests in the Middle East may be changing into something more deadly. The Iran regime may be so desperate that it is planning a spectacular attack, an Iranian Pearl Harbor, to induce the United States to settle matters largely on Iranian terms.

Elizabeth Economy: China's Power: Up For Debate
interview with Elizabeth Economy via Center for Strategic & International Studies
Hoover Institution fellow Elizabeth Economy discusses the challenges and opportunities presented by China’s rise in power as well as the core issues underpinning the nature of Chinese power.

Elizabeth Economy: Podcast: Ian Shepherdson On The U.S.-China Trade War And China's Mounting Economic Challenges
interview with Elizabeth Economy via Council on Foreign Relations
Hoover Institution fellow Elizabeth Economy discusses China’s mounting economic challenges, progress on economic reform efforts, and the likely long-term economic and geopolitical effects of the US-China trade war.

China, More Than Trump, Has Been Driving the Slowdown in Global Trade

Germany: A "Latent Sense of Insecurity" by Judith Bergman

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HOOVER TACKLES SYRIA: TURKEY GOES ROUGE; LIBYAN WARLORD INCHES FORWARD & TRUMP MUDDLES THROUGH ON SYRIAN STRAGEGY

12/18/2019

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Strategika Issue 62: Is The Mediterranean Still Geo-strategically Essential?
via Hoover Daily Report
Strategika Issue 62 is now available online. Strategika is an online journal that analyzes ongoing issues of national security in light of conflicts of the past—the efforts of the Military History Working Group of historians, analysts, and military personnel focusing on military history and contemporary conflict

Is The Mediterranean Still Geo-Strategically Essential?
by Barry Strauss via Strategika
The Mediterranean Sea is today, as it has always been, a crossroads. The name itself testifies to that, as it means “the sea in the middle of the earth,” a Latin term reflecting an earlier Greek belief. We know better, or do we? From Syria to Libya and on the high seas, and with outside players including China, Iran, Russia, and the United States, the Mediterranean has re-emerged of late as a cockpit of conflict.

Endy Zemenides: Washington Must "Show Turkey It Cannot Act with Impunity" against U.S. Interests
by Marilyn Stern and Gary C. Gambill
Middle East Forum Radio
December 21, 2019
https://www.meforum.org/60140/endy-zemenides-on-turkey-libya-accord

Turkey accepts invitation to deploy troops to Libya, Erdogan says
The Turkish Parliament will vote on sending soldiers to the north African country to support its internationally recognized government, but the deployment could entrench Turkey in Libya’s long-running internal strife as well as intensify regional tensions.

Libya's Political Instability Makes Room for ISIS to Regroup by Ahmed Charai •

The Russian Presence In Syria Is A Force For Chaos Rather Than Order
quoting Jakub Grygiel via Mosaic Magazine
After a hiatus from involvement in the Middle East that began in 1991, Russia has reasserted itself in the region through its intervention in the Syrian civil war. Jakub Grygiel explains how America made this return possible through empty rhetoric, passivity, and shortsightedness.

Turkey’s Kurdish sweep backfires
President Erdogan’s Syria plan has had unintended ramifications: Saudi Arabia and the UAE are now cozying up to the Kurds, the Kurds are uniting, and the Russians are guiding the solutions on the ground.

Brothers in Arms
The Consolidation of the Turkey-Qatar Axis

PERSPECTIVES ON 2019
POLICYED: 2019 IN REVIEW
FEATURED BOOKS BY HOOVER SCHOLARS IN 2019

If We Leave
by Charles Hill via The Caravan
The Islamic political philosopher Alfarabi (872-950), one of the notable transmitters of ancient Greek classical texts from the Eastern Mediterranean through the Maghreb to Spain’s al-Andalus and on into Western Europe, produced in his major work the idea of “The Virtuous City,” an ideal form of governance I occasionally heard mentioned by my Arab colleagues when I served at the United Nations in the 1990’s.

The Caravan: The Syrian Crisis
via The Caravan
Issue 1924 of The Caravan is now available online. The journal is a periodic symposium on the contemporary dilemmas of the Greater Middle East.

The Syrian Front
Reuel Marc Gerecht | Senior Fellow

Will Libya become Turkey’s next Syria?
The recently signed Turkey-Libya military cooperation deal and maritime delimitation agreement threatened to raise tensions not only in Libya but throughout the Eastern Mediterranean with Turkey asserting the right to intervene militarily in Libya if requested and to drill for oil and gas.

Is Turkey Coming Back? Policy Experts Predict 'Rogue Ankara' Over Long Term
by Benjamin Baird
The Armenian Weekly
December 17, 2019
https://www.meforum.org/60130/experts-predict-rogue-turkey-over-long-term

Our Confused Syria Debate
by Omar Hossino via The Caravan
The policy debate on Syria has unfortunately been reduced to a discussion of whether or not U.S. troops should remain in that country. What is missing in the debate however is a fundamental reflection on why we should be in Syria at all. Iran should be at the heart of that question.

Yemen's shaky power-sharing pact faces uncertain future
The agreement between Yemen's government and secessionist forces in the south has shown little progress since it was signed more than a month ago.

Libyan rebels advance on Tripoli
Libyan warlord Khalifa Hifter’s forces are advancing toward the capital Tripoli, a spokesman for Hifter's self-proclaimed Libyan National Army (LNA) said on Monday. Ahmed al-Mesmari added that LNA forces had downed a Turkish drone. Hifter ordered his forces last week to advance on Tripoli in a “final battle” for the capital. He launched his offensive against the UN-recognized Government of National Accord in April, with support from the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Russia. The assault has drawn international condemnation but little action except from Turkey, which has pledged to send troops if Tripoli asks.
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arabnews.com

Pentagon chief says he needs to speak to Turkey about threat to close US bases
US Defense Secretary Mark Esper said Monday he needed to speak with his Turkish counterpart to understand how serious Ankara is about shutting down two strategic air bases. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned Sunday that Turkey could close the Incirlik Air Base and the Kurecik radar station in retaliation to threats of US sanctions and a congressional resolution recognizing the Ottoman-era Armenian genocide. “The first I heard of it was reading it in the papers … so I need to talk to my defense counterpart to understand what they really mean and how serious they are,” Esper told reporters. Esper said over the weekend that he was worried Turkey is “spinning out” of the NATO orbit.
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dailysabah.com

Unknowable Syria?
by Nibras Kazimi via The Caravan
I had to take a pause once news filtered out that the ‘caliph’ of the Islamic State, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, had been killed in the small village of Barisha near the Syrian-Turkish border—of all places. Notwithstanding that that area of Idlib Province is currently controlled by his ideological rivals—fellow jihadists who would have gladly killed him off themselves—and has been so for a number of years, there were several other mitigating factors that would deem such a locale a forbidding refuge from a jihadist security mindset.

The Syria Redeployment As Counter-Iran Strategy
by Tony Badran via The Caravan
President Trump’s withdrawal of US troops on the Syria-Turkey border met with a bipartisan rebuke. While rejection of the president’s decision was the consensus, the rationales for the rejection varied, reflecting multiple and often discordant objectives that the president’s critics have projected onto the US military mission in Syria.

Lebanon has designated a new prime minister, whose candidacy was proposed by the Iranian-backed Hezbollah movement, a move that risks provoking further political unrest and alienating the country’s Western allies just when Lebanon most needs international support for its rapidly collapsing economy. – Washington Post

Hussein Ibish writes: Hezbollah, in particular, is desperate to protect the existing political order, one that maximizes its influence and minimizes its responsibility. No one stands to lose more from the sweeping reforms demanded by the protesters: a complete overhaul of the political system, undertaken by a government of unaffiliated technocrats. […]And what if, as is likely, the new man is rejected by the protesters? It is conceivable Hezbollah will go back to the drawing board, and seek another compromise candidate who preserves the status quo. – Bloomberg

Soner Cagaptay and Ben Fishman write: U.S. indecision regarding the battle for Tripoli has allowed the Russians to gain influence on the southern flank of NATO. It has also created another unnecessary friction point with Turkey, as well as between Ankara and other U.S. allies in the East Mediterranean. Washington now has a narrow window to prevent further violence in Libya and limit Moscow’s influence there. […]U.S. officials should also threaten to use existing sanctions authorities against violators of a ceasefire once it is signed. – Washington Institute

In his November 18, 2019 column in the London-based daily Al-Arab, Tunisian writer and poet Habib Lassoued attacked the U.S., saying it was continuing to cultivate relations with Qatar and to praise it for its contribution to regional security while ignoring the extensive evidence of Qatar’s support for global terrorism and Iran-sponsored terrorism. – Middle East Media Research Institute

Intel: Pentagon refuses to put timeline on Syria mission
Defense Secretary Mark Esper refused to put a timeline on the Pentagon’s scaled-down mission to defeat the Islamic State and guard Syrian oil fields at the agency’s last press briefing of the year.

Pacts between Libya, Turkey raise tensions with Egypt
Egypt's criticism of Libya's internationally recognized government is mounting in light of the latter's maritime and security agreements with Turkey.

On December 22, 2019, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan spoke about the movement of Syrians toward the Turkey-Syria border amid an ongoing offensive in Idlib by Syrian government forces in a speech he gave at the İlim Yayma Ödül Töreni (“Spreading Knowledge Award Ceremony”) at Dolmabahçe Palace in Istanbul President Erdoğan said: “[…]All European countries, above all, Greece, will feel the negative reflections of the pressure to which we will be exposed. In such a situation, a repeat of what happened before the March 18 concord will be unavoidable.” – Middle East Media Research Institute

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BOJO GETS BREXIT MANDATE WITH A UNITED BLUE ENGLAND

12/14/2019

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Blue-Collar Conservatism in Britain?
Oliver Wiseman, City Journal

THEODORE DALRYMPLE
No Final Victories
Musings on the recent British elections

From Disraeli to Johnson, ‘one-nation’ conservatism wins again in Britain
Michael Barone | Washington Examiner

Boris Johnson's Historic Mandate for Brexit
Editorial of The New York Sun | December 13, 2019
https://www.nysun.com/editorials/boris-johnsons-historic-mandate-for-brexit/90940/
It's hard to overstate how wonderful is the news that Prime Minister Boris Johnson has won a mandate to, after all these years of struggle, lead a restoration of British sovereignty and independence. We may have been in that fight from the early days, but we don't mind saying that we've had moments of doubt, particularly during the past year, that Britain would prevail. All the sweeter the results being tallied this evening.
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Brexit will be no walk in the park for Boris Johnson
Desmond Lachman | The Hill
This week, Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party trounced the Labour Party and won a commanding parliamentary majority in the UK election. Johnson’s comfortable victory will allow him to secure early passage of the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement that he negotiated last October. But that will only set the stage for the UK to enter into a one-year transitional period with its European partners to conduct the much more difficult phase of negotiating a permanent EU-UK economic relationship. It would be an understatement to say that the UK economy can ill afford another year of uncertainty as to whether the country might crash out of Europe, yet that is what Johnson has delivered.

Four Lessons a Post-Brexit Britain Can Learn from Israel
By Rafael Castro, December 19, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: A post-Brexit scenario requires long-term strategic thinking by the British establishment. The parallels between the situation of Israel in the Middle East and the eventual position of Britain vis-à-vis a federal European state offer lessons and suggest opportunities. If Britain acts on these lessons, it is more likely to flourish despite the economic and political pressure European leaders may try to exert on it in Brexit’s wake.
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Britain Enters A Long Overdue Neo-Disraelian Moment Huzzah! Says Our Brexit Diarist on Beaconsfield’s Birthday
By STEPHEN MacLEAN, Special to the Sun | December 22, 2019
https://www.nysun.com/foreign/britain-enters-a-long-overdue-neo-disraelian/90954/
As 2019 winds to a close, let us remark on how our year of turmoil and drama has brought us to a neo-Disraelian moment. You may say that's all too convenient a comment from a scribe who for years has been blogging under the rubric of the Disraeli-Macdonald Institute. But there you have it. It's not the first time that the sun has, in quite this way, lit up the meadows of the United Kingdom.
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LIBYAN WARLORD MUST CONSOLIDATE AGAINST PUTIN AND THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD

12/14/2019

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Libya: Russian Mercenaries Spearheading Battle For Tripoli.
A senior official in Libya's UN backed government says that Russian mercenaries backing rival leader Khalifa Hifter are spearheading the battle for Tripoli. An estimated 1000 Russian fighters, thought to be from the Wagner group are suspected to have arrived since September. The divided conflict in Libya has drawn other countries in, with the UAE and Egypt supporting Hifter, and Turkey supporting the UN backed government in Tripoli. Russia and Hifter have denied that there are mercenaries fighting in Tripoli. South China Morning Post Washington Post

Syria: Air Defense Intercepts Israeli Missiles. Syria’s army air defense on Sunday intercepted four cruise missiles, launched from Israel, aimed at targets on the outskirts Damascus. “Four cruise missiles were believed to have been launched across the coast through Lebanese airspace toward Syria,” said a source in the regional alliance. In recent years, Israel has launched hundreds of missiles aimed at Iranian-backed militias in the country as well as supplies provided by pro-Iranian Lebanese Hezbollah to support Assad’s forces. Reuters The New York Times

Libyan warlord launches 'final battle' for Tripoli
Libyan warlord Khalifa Hifter on Thursday ordered his forces to advance on Tripoli in a “final battle” for the capital. “Today we announce the decisive battle and the advancement toward the heart of the capital to set it free,” Hifter said in a televised speech. “Advance now, our heroes.” Hifter’s self-proclaimed Libyan National Army launched its offensive against the UN-recognized Government of National Accord in April, with support from the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Russia. The assault has drawn international condemnation but little action except from Turkey, which has offered to send troops if Tripoli asks.
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middleeasteye.net

Straightening Out Russian Foreign Policy
By Emil Avdaliani, December 15, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Russian foreign policy since the mid-2000s tends to be perceived in contradictory terms: as either a negative for Russia or the product of a grand strategic vision on the part of the Russian leadership. It is also often falsely perceived as representing a break with the past. Moscow’s foreign policy moves need to be viewed with a balanced perspective and should be placed in their historical context.
Continue to full article -

Egypt flexes its muscles in the Mediterranean after Libyan-Turkish agreement
Egypt has conducted extensive military drills in the Mediterranean in a clear response to and a show of strength against the maritime agreement between the Libyan Government of National Accord and Turkey.

Tripoli accepts Turkish offer of military help against Libyan warlord
The UN-recognized Libyan government in Tripoli said Thursday it had ratified a security and military accord with Turkey, which has offered to send troops to resist warlord Khalifa Hifter's months-long assault on the capital. In turn Hifter today gave militias defending Tripoli three days to pull out or their hometown of Misrata would be bombed “every day, non stop and in an unprecedentedly intensive way.” He has previously vowed to attack Turkish forces in Libya.
Separately, Pope Francis called Thursday for the closure of Libyan detention camps, where migrants are suffering from torture and slavery. “How can we fail to hear the cry of so many brothers and sisters who prefer to face a tempestuous sea rather than die slowly in Libyan detention camps, places of torture and ignoble slavery?” he said.
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TEAM TRUMP BUSTS THROUGH INF WALL, PUTS XI AND PUTIN ON NOTICE & CHINA PURSUES REGIONAL WAR AGAINST THE US IN THE CARIBBEAN

12/13/2019

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Could Turkey bar US military from Incirlik air base?
Faced with the resurging threat of sanctions in the US Congress, Ankara has brandished another trump card, warning that the US military could lose access to two key bases in Turkey.

US Busts INF Wall With Ballistic Missile, Puts Putin & Xi On Notice
The Pentagon’s second test of a previously-banned missile went as planned today, with the US upping its game from a cruise missile to a ballistic missile.

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KURDS FEAR CONSTITUTIONAL REVIEW

12/8/2019

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ASIA TIMES

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MODI MOVES AGAINST GHANDI'S PARTY

12/7/2019

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Cleo Paskal, non-resident senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, recounts the history of when millions fled India to g0 to Pakistan & Bangladesh. The question of “who is Indian, and how long has s/he been in India?” has been going on for decades and become important. Many economic migrants into India; Supreme Court demanded a national registration of citizens, esp far only in Assam. Note that a lot of Hindus had fled Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Afghanistan out of fear, yet weren’t easily accepted as Indian. However, if you arrive before December 2014 and you’re Buddhist, Christian, Hindu or Jain, we’ll accept you as religious refugees. It's all very messy. You needed to have arrived before March 1971 in order to _____. Left-wingers, Muslims and Assamese, all are unhappy; the Assamese, with the 20-30% population increase in the last decades.
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/12/16/21024306/india-protests-muslim-citizenship-amendment-bill

INDIA'S ECONOMY GOES DOWN

India: Leaders Meet in Washington. The second 2+2 meeting between leaders from Indian and the United States concluded late Wednesday. The leaders discussed several topics to include increasing defense cooperation and trade. "Our defense relationship is strong, and since the establishment of the 2+2 ministerial last year, it continues to improve," Secretary of Defense Mark Esper said. U.S. Department of Defense Hindustan Times MarketWatch

India: Protests Continue to Sweep the Country. Protests over the new citizenship law continued through India on Thursday. The government has shutdown the internet, blocked roads, and arrested hundreds to include Ramachandra Guha, a prominent critic of the law and biographer of Gandhi. “Our protest is totally nonviolent,’’ Guha said to reporters. “See what is happening. You see we are totally peaceful. Did you see any violence?’’ Three people have been killed during protests so far.
The New York Times

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EMERGING THREAT ASSESSMENT
GLOBAL STRIKE MEDIA.COM
NORTH AMERICA

THE RIVALRY WITH IRAN, CHINA IN 2020 & GERMAN INSECURITY DOMINATES THE CONTINENT

HOOVER TACKLES SYRIA: TURKEY GOES ROUGE; LIBYAN WARLORD INCHES FORWARD & TRUMP MUDDLES THROUGH ON SYRIAN STRAGEGY

BOJO GETS BREXIT MANDATE WITH A UNITED BLUE ENGLAND

LIBYAN WARLORD MUST CONSOLIDATE AGAINST PUTIN AND THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD

TEAM TRUMP BUSTS THROUGH INF WALL, PUTS XI AND PUTIN ON NOTICE & CHINA PURSUES REGIONAL WAR AGAINST THE US IN THE CARIBBEAN

KURDS FEAR CONSTITUTIONAL REVIEW

MODI MOVES AGAINST GHANDI'S PARTY

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EMERGING THREAT ASSESSMENTGLOBAL STRIKE MEDIA.COM NORTH AMERICA

THE RIVALRY WITH IRAN, CHINA IN 2020 & GERMAN INSECURITY DOMINATES THE CONTINENT

HOOVER TACKLES SYRIA: TURKEY GOES ROUGE; LIBYAN WARLORD INCHES FORWARD & TRUMP MUDDLES THROUGH ON SYRIAN STRAGEGY

BOJO GETS BREXIT MANDATE WITH A UNITED BLUE ENGLAND

LIBYAN WARLORD MUST CONSOLIDATE AGAINST PUTIN AND THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD

TEAM TRUMP BUSTS THROUGH INF WALL, PUTS XI AND PUTIN ON NOTICE & CHINA PURSUES REGIONAL WAR AGAINST THE US IN THE CARIBBEAN

KURDS FEAR CONSTITUTIONAL REVIEW

MODI MOVES AGAINST GHANDI'S PARTY

Archives

Categories

What Our Clients Are Saying

Contact Us

Subscribe Today!

EMERGING THREAT ASSESSMENT
GLOBAL STRIKE MEDIA.COM
NORTH AMERICA