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EMERGING THREAT ASSESSMENT
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NORTH AMERICA 

Asia's Cauldron:  Robert D. Kaplan

12/27/2016

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Trump Signals Shift From Obama's Focus on Multilateralism
From Julie Pace, AP: “For eight years, President Barack Obama's foreign policy doctrine has been rooted in a belief that while the United States can take action around the word on its own, it rarely should. "Multilateralism regulates hubris," Obama declared. His successor, President-elect Donald Trump, has derided some of the same international partnerships Obama and his recent predecessors have promoted, raising the prospect that the Republican's "America First" agenda might well mean an America more willing to act alone.”
A Friend for Trump in Asia
From The Wall Street Journal: "Of the five U.S. treaty allies in the Asia-Pacific, Japan has by far the largest economy, the most capable military and the most strategic-minded political leadership. By going to Pearl Harbor, Mr. Abe is able to bookend President Obama’s recent visit to Hiroshima and highlight Japan’s value to Donald Trump, who as a candidate sometimes talked as if Japan is a free-rider on U.S. security guarantees. The Japanese leader knows he has a good story to tell. Since taking office in 2012 Mr. Abe has steadily strengthened Japan’s ability to defend itself and help the U.S. advance shared interests. Last year he braved raucous street protests and tussles on the Diet floor to deliver a constitutional reinterpretation allowing Japan to engage in “collective self-defense.” This means the Japanese military can use force to protect the U.S. and other friendly nations from attack, even if Japan itself isn’t targeted."
 
Quoting Mao, China Says Taiwan, HK Independence Will Fail 'like Flies'
From Reuters: “Quoting a poem by the founder of Communist China Mao Zedong, China's government said on Wednesday that the efforts by Hong Kong and Taiwan independence supporters to link up were doomed to fail, as they would be dashed to the ground like flies.” ​
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