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EMERGING THREAT ASSESSMENT
GLOBAL STRIKE MEDIA.COM 
NORTH AMERICA 

beijing hits back

5/2/2016

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Chinese officials took a rhetorical hard line this week calling U.S. military actions in the South China Sea the “greatest threat” to stability in the region and vowed to increase its own military presence in the region, according to a Wednesday statement from the Chinese military. – USNI News
 
Facebook users have emerged as a target of Thailand’s ruling junta as it clamps down on online criticism in an effort to tighten its grip on power – Financial Times
 
Vietnam would welcome the United States "accelerating" the lifting of a lethal arms embargo, which would reflect trust between the two countries and recognition of its needs to defend itself, its foreign ministry said on Thursday. - Reuters
 
Editorial: It nonetheless appears that the already complicated U.S. mission of mustering counterweights in East Asia sufficient to deter China’s overreaching is about to get still more difficult. Responsible people in both countries can only hope that Mr. Duterte is not soon matched with an American counterpart. – Washington Post
O]n Tuesday, Queen Elizabeth II, clad in bright pink, had a frank exchange about China on her palace lawn with a Metropolitan Police commander, Lucy D’Orsi. They spoke of conflicts that unfolded in London in October when President Xi Jinping of China and his entourage made a state visit to Britain, and at one point, the queen referred to the visiting officials as “very rude.” – NYT’s Sinosphere
 
China is building up intermediate-range ballistic and cruise missiles that pose a growing threat to Guam, the strategic Pacific island that is central to the U.S. military pivot to Asia, according to a congressional report made public Tuesday. – Washington Free Beacon
 
Some Chinese state-owned entities, backed by the key government agency that oversees major state industrial companies, have adopted a controversial defense when they face U.S. lawsuits: You can't touch us because we enjoy sovereign immunity. - Reuters
 
Michael Pettis writes: The past three years have been terrible for international trade. China isn’t the only major economy suffering from weak domestic demand, but it has behaved far more responsibly than Europe and Japan, which have forced their adjustment costs onto the rest of the world. Maintaining the yuan’s value has been good for both China and the world. It wouldn’t help for Beijing to change strategy. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
What's Wrong With Beijing's Nuclear Submarines
The Center for Strategic and International Studies ChinaPower site takes a look at China's Jin­-class nuclear ballistic missile submarines and finds them wanting on a number of fronts. The sub's missile payload, the JL-2 submarine-launched ballistic missile, is lacking in range, meaning that Jin subs have to make it relatively close to their targets in order to carry out successful strikes. That's especially tricky as U.S. anti-submarine warfare kits can reportedly find -- and potentially help destroy -- Jin-class subs underwater.
By physically linking itself more tightly with Europe, the Middle East and Central Asia, China is aiming to create new markets as growth slows at home while deepening Beijing's influence across Asia and as far away as the Middle East and Europe. The effort is at the center of Xi's signature political and economic policy initiative, called the Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st Century Maritime Silk Road. –Los Angeles Times
The Chinese government on Thursday denied a Navy flotilla access to the port in Hong Kong, Pentagon officials said Friday, the latest sign of escalating tension between the United States and China. – New York Times
 
American leaders and interest groups have sharply criticized a new law in China aimed at controlling and limiting the work of foreign nongovernmental organizations in the country, saying it will lead to the deterioration of ties between the Chinese and people from abroad. – New York Times
China has successfully completed a seventh flight test of its new hypersonic glide vehicle last week in its northern central Shanxi province, according to an article on People’s Daily Online. – Defense Tech
 
Editorial: Even before adopting the law, China did not hesitate to quash those groups it suspected of supporting democracy, free speech and human rights. But now President Xi Jinping is going further than his predecessors in the post-Mao era. He is systematically attempting to strengthen the machinery of the Chinese state and impose top-down controls on civil society. – Washington Post
 
Michael Auslin writes: The West’s assumption that it constantly must try for deeper engagement with Chinese society and leaders needs to be rethought. Further efforts may wind up being counterproductive, leading to more repression, and hurting the very people NGOs hope to help. After two decades of globalization, a regime whose trust in the world remains so low will not be a willing partner in most of the efforts about which the liberal world cares. Sometimes, the only thing to do is watch and wait. - Forbes
Project Syndicate:  Playing by the rules in Asia
Admiral Unsettles White House:  South China Sea
Admiral Harris makes no apologies for his candor, which has unsettled a more cautious White House. As China builds militarily fortified islands in the South China Sea, a strategic waterway long dominated by the United States, it is his job, he says, to talk to Congress, the American public and allies abroad about the threat. – New York Times
 
A top U.S. naval official said China’s navy is expected to join military exercises near Hawaii, playing down Beijing’s refusal last month to let a U.S. aircraft carrier dock in Hong Kong. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
A teenage activist who became the face of the so-called umbrella protests in Hong Kong was tried Friday along with three others for their roles in a protest against Beijing’s rule in this Chinese territory of more than 7 million people. – Los Angeles Times
 
China is doubling down on efforts to keep unprofitable factories afloat despite for years pledging to curb excess capacity, adding to a glut of basic materials flooding the global economy. – Wall Street Journal
 
A recent concert featuring Maoist “red songs,” staged in China’s most high-profile political venue just weeks ahead of the Cultural Revolution’s 50th anniversary, has sparked a backlash over its perceived memorialization of the decadelong mass upheaval unleashed by Mao Zedong. – WSJ’s China Real Time
Southeast Asia:  Containing Beijing
The mother of a pro-democracy activist faces up to 15 years in prison after acknowledging that she had received a private message on Facebook that the police say insulted Thailand’s monarchy. – New York Times
 
Myanmar recognizes 135 ethnic groups within its borders. But the people who constitute No. 136? They are the people-who-must-not-be-named. Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, the leader of Myanmar’s first democratically elected government since 1962, embraced that view last week when she advised the United States ambassador against using the term “Rohingya” to describe the persecuted Muslim population that has lived in Myanmar for generations. – New York Times
 
Plans by the Malaysian government to shut down the troubled state fund at the heart of a multinational investigation could saddle the government with billions of dollars in debt and may be a first step toward a government bailout, opposition leaders said. – New York Times
 
A Philippine mayor whose recipe for national revival involves a harsh crackdown on criminality took a commanding lead in presidential elections here on Monday. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
A top U.S. envoy began a two-day trip to Vietnam on Monday to gauge its progress in human rights, two weeks ahead of a visit by President Barack Obama in what will be the first by a U.S. leader in a decade. - Reuters
 
Editorial: President Xi Jinping already broke a promise he made to Mr. Obama not to militarize islets his regime has been building up in two parts of the South China Sea. Now Beijing appears to be contemplating building a base on a contested shoal just 150 miles from Subic Bay in the Philippines. A failure by the administration to prevent this audacious step could unravel much of what it has done to bolster U.S. influence in the region. – Washington Post
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