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EMERGING THREAT ASSESSMENT
GLOBAL STRIKE MEDIA.COM 
NORTH AMERICA 

BIDEN STALLS ON BEIJING; FDD THINK TANK TACKLES IRANIAN NUKE PROGRAM;

2/15/2023

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China's Balloon Reveals the Weaknesses in US National Security Decision-Making
by Lawrence A. Franklin
Iranian Nationalists Reject the Regime
​
It‘s no longer true that a Western military strike would lend the theocracy stronger domestic support.
 Reuel Marc Gerecht | Senior Fellow
MARBURG VIRUS DOMINATES WEST AFRICA is the country’s first outbreak (WHO) 
Pakistan’s power crisis.
When the Same North Korea Policy Fails Over and Over Again​
Saudi Nuclear Ambitions Could Upend the Middle East
​
And there are steps the U.S. can take to ward them off.
 Andrea Stricker | Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program Deputy Director and Research Fello
By Behnam Ben Taleblu FDD
Read Full Monograph
When will Saudi Arabia Sign Peace with Israel?
​
Saudi Arabia's new policy, Vision 2030, requires a newer foreign policy on Palestinians
The Case for Japanese Land Power in the First Island Chain, by Yusuke Kawachi
The Defense Industrial Base Is America’s Diplomatic Ace in the Hole. Let’s Use It.
How To Bring Innovation to America’s Nuclear Strategy
By Leonor Tomero, Defense News: "The United States should adopt a new nuclear strategy of innovation for deterrence resilience."
In China, a Web of Actors Weave Foreign Policy
By Carlo J.V. Caro, The Diplomat: "Beijing is often framed as a unitary actor, but the reality is that many actors influence policy decisions."
  • WINEP’s Soner Cagaptay: How will Turkey’s earthquake affect the current election cycle?
America’s Diplomatic Neglect Compounds Fighting in Somalia
Michael Rubin | 19fortyfive.co
  • Militant in Iran identified as al-Qaeda’s probable new chief in U.N. report
Kitaneh Fitzpatrick, Zachary Coles, Annika Ganzeveld, Jonathan Baumel, and Frederick W. Kagan write: Former Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is positioning himself to reenter the public arena after a period of relative absence. Iran-backed militias have recently withdrawn from military positions in Deir ez-Zour Province and may redeploy to Aleppo Province.[…]Iranian media outlets recirculated Parliamentarian Shahryar Heydari’s January 15 announcement that Iran will soon receive an unspecified number of Su-35 fighter jets. President Ebrahim Raisi signed 20 agreements on Sino-Iranian in Beijing on February 14. – Institute for the Study of War  

Younes Abouyoub writes: This changes the geopolitical balance and the close relationship that the United States, given its long-standing dependence on energy imports, had developed with MENA countries since World War II.[…]The turn of MENA energy-exporting countries towards the Asian market, with the growing economic and political power of states like China and India, has created new opportunities for exporters to impose themselves as major players as clean energy geopolitics grow in importance, thus mitigating as much as possible the potential loss in terms of geopolitical influence induced by the energy transition. – Middle East Institute   ​
America and China: Whose Timeline Is It, Anyway?
Dustin Walker | Breaking Defense
Attempts to answer the question of whether and when China will invade Taiwan are clouding rather than clarifying America’s national security debate. Dustin Walker explains that it is past time for policymakers and military leaders to stop speculating about China’s timeline for war and focus on America’s timeline for deterring it. American leaders must recognize that the US has entered an indefinite window of concern in which the possibility of war with China and the plausibility of American defeat are present and future realities. This indefinite threat of war collapses and confounds America's decision making when it is creating strategies to combat the near-, medium-, and long-term threats. The Pentagon needs a cohesive strategy for mitigating risk across all time frames. Learn more here. >>
Intention, Not Capacity
​
The White House’s new way of seeing the Iranian bomb.
The Iran Nuclear Deal Isn’t Dead
​
The State Department is fighting to keep it alive, even if an agreement benefits Russia and China.
Wagner’s Next Targets in Africa: Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Ivory Coast
Secure Communities: Stopping the Salafi-Jihadi Surge in Africa
U.S. Begins Forging Rare Earth Supply Chain
By Mikayla Easley, National Defense Magazine: “. . . over the last three decades, Beijing has held an iron grip on the world’s supply chain for rare earth elements such that nearly all materials — no matter where in the world they are mined — travel to China for refinement"
Opposition to L3Harris-Aerojet Deal Part of Broader Anti-Trust Trend
From Army Technology: "The U.S. defense industry being almost totally controlled by five major companies is increasingly a point of regulatory and political contention.”
US-China Trade Sets Records
Derek Scissors | AEIdeas
We’re not standing up to China, and we’re not going too far. We’re not doing anything of consequence—as 2022 trade shows, again.

Full Story
US Indo-Pacific Policy Prioritizes Security over Economics
Claude Barfield | East Asia Forum
​

Tyler Cowen on the State of the Great Stagnation, Pro-Progress Policy, Metascience, and More
James Pethokoukis | Faster, Please!
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