EMERGING THREATS U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY - CounterStrikeMedia

SYRIAN KURDS IN TURKISH CROSSHAIRS

8/19/2019

https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/turkeys-rising-wave-of-social-protests
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https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/growing-anti-syrian-sentiment-in-turkey
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https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/syria-safe-zone-can-help-turkey-come-to-terms-with-the-pkk-and-yp
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-07/turkey-s-akar-says-syria-talks-with-u-s-were-positive-anadolu
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https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/08/turkey-agree-set-syria-safe-zone-operation-centre-190807140235933.html
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https://warontherocks.com/2019/08/the-crisis-is-coming-syria-and-the-end-of-the-u-s-turkish-alliance/
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https://twitter.com/USEmbassyTurkey/status/1159101377764843520/photo/1
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https://sethfrantzman.com/2019/08/07/turkeys-gambit-on-syria-pays-off-as-washington-discusses-peace-corridor/

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https://nationalinterest.org/blog/middle-east-watch/syria-safe-zone-will-create-more-problems-it-solves-72961

THE FRENCH REVEAL ALL ABOUT ABU NIDAL

8/16/2019

RUSSIA'S NUCLEAR TIPPED CRUISE MISSLE BLOWS UP

8/16/2019

THIS IS HOW CHINA LOSES HONG KONG

8/16/2019

PROTESTS IN 11 TIMES ZONES SACK THE RUSSIAN REGIME

8/10/2019

WHY ENDLESS WARS CAN'T BE ENDED & ISRAEL'S EVOLVING FRONT WITH IRAN

8/9/2019

Why endless wars can’t be ended
There’s no chance America’s enemies will leave us in peace.Clifford D. May | Founder & President

TEHRAN AND TEL AVIV’S EVOLVING MULTIFRONT WAR

Forecast: The Iranian regime may attack or threaten Israeli interests in coming weeks to deter perceived Israeli aggression. Tel Aviv launched an air campaign against Iran in Iraq and will also participate in the US-led maritime security mission in the Persian Gulf, Operation Sentinel. Tehran considers both efforts significant security threats and will adjust its approach to rising tensions with the US and Israel accordingly. Recent meetings between the regime and Iranian-backed groups may indicate that Iran is planning a military response or contingencies to respond to future Israeli attacks.

Read more here.

INDIA CHANGES KASHMIR STATUS & HOW TO UNDERSTAND INDIA'S POLITICAL ECONOMY

8/8/2019

Modi’s decision on Kashmir reveals a brittleness in India
Sadanand Dhume | The Atlantic
If Narendra Modi's Kashmir decision is a portent for India's future, it's time to start worrying.

A Look Into the Islamic State-Khorasan
by Paul Lushenko, Weeda Mehran, Craig Whiteside, and Theo Farrell

BBC

India Ends Special Status for Only Muslim-Majority Territory

The Washington Post BBC Times of India

Pakistan prepares to fight India for Kashmir
Max Frost | The National Interest

ASIA TIMES: INDIA'S DYNASTIES

INDIAN FEDERALISM SPLITS

WHAT THE NEW STATUS MEANS

RIYADH & NEW DELHI FOSTER OIL TIES

A PROBLEM CALLED CHINA: HONG KONG ISN'T RESOLVED; HOW DOES CHINA SIGNAL A CHANGE IN LEADERSHIP

7/26/2019

Trump ignores Hong Kong protesters and focuses on China’s money
The demonstrators are standing up to an authoritarian bully — and the president's indifference to their plight is both immoral and reckless.

RUSSIAN SOFT POWER IN MIDDLE EAST, TURKEY GOES OVER TO MOSCOW & THE SYRIAN SIDE SHOW

7/22/2019

Are the Insurgencies Truly Over?
The End of the Syrian Civil War by Thomas R. McCabe
Middle East Quarterly
Summer 2019 (view PDF)
https://www.meforum.org/58684/are-the-syria-insurgencies-truly-over

Turkey-Kurd Dispute Shows Why the U.S. Should Leave Syria
By Jerrod A. Laber, RealClearDefense: "The Trump administration is trying to stave off a Turkish invasion of northeast Syria, The Washington Post reports, which could begin within the next two weeks."

Russia’s Military Leaders Exploit Lessons From Experiments in Syria
By Roger McDermott, Eurasia Daily Monitor: “The leadership of the Russian Armed Forces at the defense ministry and General Staff levels is exploiting lessons learned from the country’s recent involvement in foreign conflicts as part of a process to enhance military capability."

What's at stake for Russia with S-400 deliveries to Turkey?
The decision to sell the missile system to Turkey is now seen as a win for Moscow, but this doesn't mean it came easy. And there are still potential downsides for Russia.

Russian Soft Power in the Middle East
By Shay Attias, July 26, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Russian soft power efforts in the Middle East are bearing fruit, as many young Arabs now view Moscow as an ally and the US as unreliable. Russia wants to build more ties with the Muslim world and views Trump’s presidency as an opportunity in that regard. This ambition is tempered somewhat by the Muslim jihadist threat in Russian areas and, of course, the painful legacy of the war in Afghanistan.
Continue to full article ->

The Syrian Sideshow by Jonathan Spyer
The Jerusalem Post
July 18, 2019
https://www.meforum.org/58979/the-syrian-sideshow

U.S., TURKEY:
Turkey, U.S. Agree to Coordinate on Syrian Buffer Zone
By Ayla Jean Yackley, Al-Monitor: "Turkey and the United States appear to have sidestepped a confrontation over northeast Syria by agreeing to jointly establish a buffer zone after protracted negotiations had inflamed tensions, prompting Ankara to threaten to invade an area where U.S. troops are present.

Turkey says US safe zone proposal ‘not at all satisfactory’
Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu aired his grievances with the proposed US safe zone in Syria in front of the press on Wednesday. "New US proposals on a Syria safe zone are not at all satisfactory for Turkey," he said. "We have the impression that the US is procrastinating. Cavusoglu said Turkey and the United States have not agreed on the size of the zone, who will control it or whether the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) would be allowed to operate inside. Ankara considers the YPG to be a terrorist group and has threatened an offensive against the Syrian Kurds if safe zone talks fail. Read More

The End of the Syrian Civil War
The Many Implicationsby Eyal Zisser
Middle East Quarterly
Summer 2019 (view PDF)
https://www.meforum.org/58648/end-of-syrian-civil-war-implications

What's next for Russia in Idlib?
Following the violation of the cease-fire in Idlib, Russia faces the need to manage the breakout of new hostilities and fix the deal with Turkey.

CHINA AGGRESSIVE IN THE CARIBBEAN

7/22/2019

Adm. Davidson: China Assaults International Order
The most profound change resulting from China’s military modernization has been in its space capabilities. Back in 2000 China only had 10 satellites in orbit, and this year it will launch more satellites than any other nation on the planet.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-06-28/u-s-china-rivalry-offers-caribbean-rare-opportunity.

HARD BREXIT ON ARRIVAL W/ BOJO

7/22/2019

HOW ADAM SMITH FIXES THE BREXIT

My own attention this week has been focused in a related area. The website Law & Liberty published an essay I have been developing for several months on how the insights of classical liberal tradition might serve as a starting point for a new antipoverty consensus among conservatives and libertarians. In " The Theory of Moral Sentiments," Adam Smith was the first to articulate a close observation of the crucial role family and community play in human development and the functioning of the market. Smith’s theory validates the human mutuality cherished by traditional conservatives and the emergent order at the heart of libertarian perspectives on market economies. My essay argues that there aren’t two Adam Smiths, but rather one who was considering how human sociability both shapes people and gives rise to markets. That sounds like a promising place to start a conversation.

Brexit: The Elites Turn Against Democracy Editorial of The New York Sun | July 25, 2019
https://www.nysun.com/editorials/brexit-the-elites-turn-against-democracy/90778/
What a shocking entry of the International Monetary Fund into the domestic politics of Britain. As Queen Elizabeth II was preparing to ask Boris Johnson to form Britain's new government, a leaderless IMF issued a warning against a "no-deal Brexit." It did so in the face of the Mother of Parliaments that has just heaved up a premier committed to the referendum decision for Brexit, even one with no deal. And in the face of an America that supports that decision.
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Brexit Trumps the United Kingdom Editorial of The New York Sun | July 31, 2019
https://www.nysun.com/editorials/brexit-trumps-the-united-kingdom/90783/
The latest panic in respect of Brexit is a warning that it could lead to a break up of the United Kingdom. "Brexit has become the enemy of the UK union," is the headline in Nikkei's world business newspaper, the London Financial Times. It's worried about Scottish disunion and Irish unification. "Boris Johnson's 'do or die' strategy," the FT says, "is gambling with Britain's future."
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THE MIDDLE EAST FORUM LAUNCHES THE COUNTER-ISLAMISM GRID, THE MODERN SCRAMBLE FOR AFRICA & THE GROWTH OF AL-QAEDA AGAIN, ESPECIALLY IN NORTH AFRICA

7/20/2019

Africa File
Salafi-jihadi groups' stakes in the Libyan civil wa

North Africa
East Afric
- West Africa

Get the Latest Updates from Counter-Islamism Grid July 19, 2019
https://www.meforum.org/58919/get-the-latest-updates-from-counter-islamism-grid

the modern scramble for Africa.

Al-Qaeda Strong as Ever After Rebuilding Itself, U.S. Says
By Glen Carey, Bloomberg: "Al-Qaeda and its affiliates remain as much of a threat to the U.S. as “it has ever been” after the terrorist group rebuilt itself while the U.S. and other nations focused on destroying Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, a State Department official said."

Osama bin Laden’s Son Likely Is Dead. Here’s What It Means.
Though not a veteran warrior, Hamza bin Laden enjoyed star power within jihadist circles due to his father’s legacy. He potentially represented al-Qaeda’s future.
More

MIDDLE EAST:
Islamic State Wages Desert-Based Insurgency in Iraq and Syria
By Thomas Joscelyn, FDD's Long War Journal: "The U.S.-led coalition, Combined Joint Task Force — Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTF-OIR), reports that “ISIS has been able to regroup and sustain operations in Iraq and Syria.”"

Salafi-jihadi groups' stakes in the Libyan civil war.

AL-MONITOR EXAMINES SYRIA & A MIRAGE CALLED INTERNATIONAL JERUSALEM

7/20/2019

AL-MONITOR

The Mirage of an International Jerusalem by Michel Gurfinkieliel
Mosaic
July 8, 2019
https://www.meforum.org/58966/the-mirage-of-an-international-jerusalem

EXAMINING NIGERIA'S LONG TERM POLICY OF ISLAMISM

7/18/2019

Confronting Jihadist Factions in Nigeria: An Antidote to Defeatism by Jacob Zenn

The US may be funding Iran-backed extremism in Africa
Michael Rubin | Washington Examiner

HOOVER POLICY ED TACKLES POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY & HOW WAR BETWEEN RUSSIA AND CHINA IS IMMINENT

7/14/2019

Confronting the Russian challenge

xpect a War Between Russia and China in the 2020s
By Pravin R. Jethwa, July 18, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Notwithstanding the seeming friendship between Chinese president Xi Jinping and Russian president Vladimir Putin, and the growing congruence of both countries’ interests in undermining the US-led international order, relations between Russia and China remain at their core as brittle and prone to mutual suspicion and distrust as they have in the past. It is not unreasonable to expect that that underlying animosity will erupt into violence in the relatively near future.
Continue to full article ->

The Impacts of China’s Missile Forces on Russian Threat Perceptions and the INF Architecture
By Martin Andrew, China Brief: "Discussions of the INF architecture usually focus narrowly on either Russia and the United States, or on the United States and the PRC. Furthermore, significant discussion has taken place regarding how Chinese missile forces might impact the military calculations of the United States, Australia, Japan, and other Pacific nations. However, little attention has generally been given to how developments in the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) affect Russia."

Explaining Political Uncertainty
by David Brady via PolicyEd
The country is currently facing electoral and political instability due to economic and demographic changes that are breaking apart existing voting blocs. This instability will continue until one party finds a dominant set of issues that attracts a winning coalition of voters. Stabilizing the political landscape will require party coalitions to address critical issues like immigration, inequality, worker insecurity, environmental challenges, and trade in a way that brings together a stable majority of voters.

ILLUMINATED MANUSCRIPTS AND TREASURES LOST DURING THE LONG WAR

7/13/2019

THE PRC FIELDS A NEW NAVY CHIEF IN SOUTH CHINA SEA

7/13/2019

U.S. Arms Deal Can Help Taiwan Deter Chinese Aggression

THE MULLAH REPORT, GERMAN MOSQUES AND HEZBOLLAH

7/13/2019

Iran's military is making strides into 21st-century technology
Michael Rubin | The National Interest

Iran's New Global Terrorist Network by Con Coughlin •

Sanctioned Hezbollah Security Chief Works Closely with Lebanese Authorities

Mullah report

30 German mosques and cultural centers tied to Hezbollah: intel report

THE RETURN OF THE AXIS OF EVIL: AUTHORITARIAN REGIMES WORK TOGETHER TO CIRCUMVENT THE US

7/6/2019

RUSSIAN NUCLEAR SUB CATCHES FIRE

7/6/2019

AN AFRICAN ARAB SPRING? & CHINA, RUSSIA'S AFRICAN OFFENSIVE

7/4/2019

Russia's and China's Geopolitical Offensive in Africa
By Emil Avdaliani, July 10, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Both China and Russia have increased their influence on the African continent through money, diplomacy, and other measures – efforts that go directly against US interests. Washington has paid little attention to Africa and will find it difficult to compete with Moscow and Beijing, particularly as other geopolitical theaters require its immediate attention.
Continue to full article ->

Political crises in Sudan and Algeria are stalemating and may become more violent, increasing the likelihood of civil war or state collapse.
- This chaos threatens all of us.
Geopolitical competition that threatens US interests is increasing in the western Sahel region.
- Revisit where this competition is happening in East Africa.

THE NAGORNO KARABAKH TRAGEDY CONTINUES

6/30/2019

https://www.azernews.az/nation/152402.html

AFRICA: GROUND ZERO FOR ISLAMISM

6/30/2019

MILITARIZING MEXICO, HOW BAD GOVERNANCE CREATES REFUGEES & FOR NATO TO COUNTER RUSSIA IT MUST MOVE EASTWARD

6/28/2019

To Remain Effective, NATO Needs to Move Eastward
By Dan Gouré, RealClearDefense: "Although Russia's military strategy is officially defensive, the Russian Ground Troops' fundamental principle of land warfare is violent, sustained, and deep offensive action, just as it was during the Soviet era."

ISTANBUL SCREWS THE LEADERSHIP & TURKEY'S AFRICAN STRATEGY BREEDS ISLAMISTS

6/24/2019

Istanbul: 'Everything Is Coming Up Roses' by Burak Bekdil  •

Turkey’s Africa strategy threatens to breed Islamist extremism
Michael Rubin | NationalReview.com

Why Erdogan’s historic Istanbul defeat is irreparable
The government’s defeat in Istanbul's mayoral election is nothing less than a historic watershed, for Erdogan lacks the means to remedy the factors behind this outcome, mainly the economic crisis bruising the country.

Istanbul's Election Puzzle by Daniel Pipes
Washington Times
June 25, 2019
http://www.danielpipes.org/18916/istanbul-election-puzzle

Erdogan's Setback Could Yet Tilt Turkey to U.S.
By BENNY AVNI, Special to the Sun | June 25, 2019
https://www.nysun.com/foreign/erdogans-setback-could-yet-tilt-turkey-to-us/90744/