The Risks Of China's Three Gorges Dam's Flooding
by Michael R. Auslin via National Review
China has been suffering through record rains the past weeks, leading to the worst flooding in the country in decades. There is little relief in sight, and the Yangtze River is now above flood level, according to China’s Ministry of Water Resources. A few days ago, officials admitted that certain “peripheral” structures of the massive Three Gorges Dam deformed due to the building water pressure. 

Turkey untroubled by conflict with Egypt, UAE in Libya
Ankara believes a large-scale Egyptian ground operation is highly unlikely in Libya, considering the likely dynamics of power struggles in the skies of Sirte and al-Jufra, between tribes in southern Libya and on air and naval logistical routes between Libya and Turkey.
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Gary Schmitt points out that the speech gives the impression of an administration doubling down on its intent to meet the challenge of a rising, revisionist power. But changing Chinese behavior, as Secretary Pompeo wants, requires more presence and deterrence than the US military presently has in the Indo-Pacific.  Read here.

Cutting the defense budget to restrain US foreign policy is a way to avoid tough choices and set clear priorities. In a Defense Priorities op-ed, Mackenzie Eaglen argues that just because the US can reduce the budget by $500 billion over 10 years does not mean that it should. If we take such cuts, we will have a hobbled and hollow force, nuclear uncertainties, emboldened adversaries, the destruction of domestic manufacturing industries, supply chain failures, and an isolated, less prosperous America. Substantial cuts to the defense budget, while possible, are fiscally irresponsible political theater.  Read more here.

Last week, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo decried China’s “campaign of bullying” in the South China Sea (SCS) and pledged that the US “would not allow Beijing to treat the SCS as its maritime empire.” So what measures might be on the table because of the administration’s change in policy? In a War on the Rocks op-ed, Zack Cooper and Bonnie Glaser note that Washington should consider economic sanctions, more military patrols, capacity building, and tougher multilateral diplomacy. The US cannot prevent China from dominating the SCS and undermining the application of rules and norms in Asia’s maritime coasts without accepting more risk. Learn more here.

Iran requires a hard-line stance, but erasing a war criminal’s past because of antagonism toward Tehran is wrong because it affirms a strategy Saddam himself mastered. To forgive Baathism or other extremisms out of animus toward Tehran condemns the region to further bloodshed. Continue here.

Egypt is preparing to deploy its army outside its borders for the first time in almost 30 years. At issue is Libya, where Turkey has intervened to support Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj. But is Cairo about to make a mistake? There is no guarantee that Egypt will be able to achieve its aims quickly and at a cost the Egyptian economy can easily bear, points out Michael Rubin in a National Interest op-ed. Still, Egypt is correct to counter Turkey in Libya. It is time for Washington either to reassert counter-terror leadership itself or to back allies who wish to do so. Read here.

Tunisian president appoints former adviser as prime minister 
Tunisia's President Kais Saied appointed over the weekend Interior Minister Hichem Mechichi as the new prime minister amid a deep political crisis. Mechichi replaces Elyes Fakhfakh who resigned earlier this month over accusations of having conflicts of interest regarding a business he has shares in that has received some $15 million worth of public contracts. If the new prime minister-designate fails to form a new government within a month, the president will dissolve parliament and call for new elections at a time the country is grappling with a serious economic crisis made worse by the coronavirus outbreak.
 Read More  
reuters.com

Erdogan meets Libya’s Sarraj in Istanbul amid Libya escalation 
Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the head of Libya’s internationally-recognized government met in Istanbul on Saturday amid escalating tensions over Sirte and al-Jufra. Erdogan and Fayez al-Sarraj, the head of Libya’s western Government of National Accord, discussed the latest in the conflict, Turkey’s presidency said in a statement. Sarraj’s visit came as the Turkish-backed GNA forces are preparing for a military operation to seize control of the strategic coastal province of Sirte and central Libya’s al-Jufra base. Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi declared the two targets a “red line,” and has threatened to militarily intervene on Gen. Khalifa Hifter’s side if the GNA should advance on Sirte and al-Jufra. Along with Egypt, the United Emirates and Russia also back Hifter’s forces. The United States military last week released aerial imagery that it said depicted Russian military forces near Sirte, suggesting Russia may be gearing up to defend the coastal city. Erdogan also discussed the possibility of a “political solution” in Libya during a phone call with Italy's Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte.
 Read More  
iletisim.gov.tr

Russian Oil Grab in Libya Fuels US-Kremlin Tensions 
A recent move by Russia’s Wagner paramilitary forces into Libya’s southern oil fields is escalating tensions between the United States and Russia over Libya’s future. US officials are becoming concerned that Russian mercenaries are increasingly focused on taking over the country’s petroleum industry after a company owned by Russian businessman and confidant of President Vladimir Putin, Yevgeny Prigozhin, set up shop in the coastal town of Es Sider, east of Sirte. The US Treasury Department expanded its sanctions on Prigozhin-owned companies earlier this month. Prigozhin is widely believed to oversee the Wagner mercenaries, who operate as an arm of Russia's Defense Ministry.
Read More  ​

Eritrea weighs role in Egypt-Ethiopia dispute over Nile dam
 Eritrea’s president visited Cairo against the backdrop of the faltering talks on the Nile dam dispute, raising questions about Eritrea’s role in helping reach an agreement between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan.

Anger flares as Ethiopia announces, denies Nile dam filling has started
 Ethiopia has denied reports that the filling of its controversial Nile mega dam has begun.

Washington’s response to counterrevolutionary agendas in Libya
Khalid Al-Jaber, Giorgio Cafiero

Why did Moscow call Ankara’s Hagia Sophia decision “Turkey’s internal affair”?
Maxim A. Suchkov

Russia’s approach to Responsibility to Protect in the Black Sea and Syria
Ketevan Murusidze

The eastern Mediterranean heats up as conflicts over energy move onshore
Geoffrey Aronson

New old dynamics at play in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict
Thomas de Waal

We Still Have More Questions Than Answers on Russian Bounties

Thrones Wreathed in Shadow: Tacitus and the Psychology of Authoritarianism by Iskander Rehman

Dov S. Zakheim writes: Perhaps, as Trump’s poll numbers continue to sink, Putin will decide that he must exploit the window of opportunity that he now has to move his forces into Belarus, thereby placing Poland in a Russian vise. Even if he does not, Putin’s extended tenure means that Russia no longer can be seen solely as a near-term threat to American interests. On the contrary, the next several presidents will have to contend with a man whose life’s mission is, as Kennan so elegantly put it in his Long Telegram, “to seek security only in patient but deadly struggle for total destruction of rival power.” – The Hill
​
David B. Rivkin Jr. and George S. Beebe write: Confirmed or not, the allegations should serve as a sobering reminder that unconstrained shadow warfare with Moscow can produce genuine dangers for Americans. One glaring difference between the Cold War and today is that the Cold War was fought within the parameters of agreed rules. Today, we have almost none. We would be wise to consider this as our national discourse on Russia proceeds. – The Hill

Tokyo pulled out of a new missile defense system, ostensibly because it does not want to be “caught in the middle” of a confrontation, writes Stephen Bryern

A major report released by China’s National Institute for South China Sea Studies warns of the dangers of rising tension in Sino-American affairs. Gordon Watts explains that concerns are growing that intense rivalry could spill over into “armed conflict”.

The nation announced a major shift in its defense strategy to challenge China’s threat in the Indo-Pacific, with US$185 billion newly budgeted for long-range missiles, satellite surveillance and other counter-measures, reports Alan Boyd.

Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan’s coalition government faces a tri-pronged threat comprised of political defections, a spiraling Covid-19 outbreak and a collapsing economy, a triple whammy that some reckon could cut short his elected tenure, reports FM Shankil.

Why Adam Smith’s Critique of Mercantilism Matters Today

Saudi Arabia: Saudi-Led Coalition Starts Military Operation Against Yemen’s Houthis.  A Saudi-led coalition started a military operation against Yemen’s Houthi movement on Wednesday.  This comes after Yemen’s Houthi Rebels executed cross-border missile and drone attacks last week.  Yemen has reported air strikes on the capital Sanaa, Marib, al-Jouf, al-Bayda, Hajjah, and Saada provinces throughout the day and into the night.  Haaretz Reuters The New York Times

Algerian court imprisons officials, figures linked to former regime 
An Algerian court sentenced to prison several officials and businessmen linked to former President Abdelaziz Bouteflika on charges of corruption on Wednesday. Prominent tycoon Ali Haddad was slapped with an 18-year jail sentence. Meanwhile, Abdelmalek Sellal and Ahmed Ouyahia, former prime ministers who are already behind bars for other graft cases, were each handed a 12-year jail term. Jail terms ranging between two to 20 years were also handed down to eight former ministers. Authorities in Algeria have arrested several of the country’s wealthiest businessmen and former officials amid protests that continued despite Bouteflika's resignation last year, as Algerians demand a transition to democracy and the trial of figures linked to the former regime.  Read More  
yahoo.com

Oriana Skylar Mastro testified before the House Foreign Affairs Committee Subcommittee on Asia, the Pacific, and Nonproliferation to discuss how Beijing’s aims for maritime power engage US interests. Mastro recommended that Washington prioritize countering Chinese ambitions in the South China Sea and the East China Sea and devise a hedging strategy in the Indian Ocean. For any of these initiatives to succeed, however, Washington will need a lasting strategy to deter China's aggression. The US has made some progress in this regard, but given the extent of China’s maritime ambitions, it is not yet enough. Read the testimony here.

For years, there have been good reasons to move or keep certain supply chains out of China, and advanced semiconductors may top the list. Strengthening the US over China in the chip industry will require precisely crafted legislation, notes Derek Scissors in an AEIdeas blog post. One set of needed legal restrictions is export controls applied to all state-funded advanced products and technologies. However, supply chains should not be confined to the US. If friendly countries abide by export controls and restrictions on dealings with China, their participation could be advantageous. US-China competition is long term, and leveraging new semiconductor chains will pull countries and companies toward helping us.  Continue here.

Last week, the Australian government published a white paper on defense and national strategy. The report underscores that Australia is ramping up its defense spending by 40 percent over the next decade, accounting for China’s aggressive behavior in the region and toward Canberra itself, notes Gary Schmitt in an American Interest article. As most countries get ready to tighten their belts in the wake of COVID-19, the Australian government intends to deal with the security environment as it is, not as it hopes it might be.  Read more here.

The domino theory, in which setbacks accumulate quickly and catastrophically, is one of the most controversial ideas in US foreign policy. But the 70th anniversary of the Korean War alerts us that domino dynamics could affect US-China competition today. In a Bloomberg op-ed, Hal Brands points out that if China took control over Taiwan, it would undermine US strategy throughout the region and would unsettle nearby countries dependent on American power. This doesn’t mean the US should go all out to compete with China everywhere, but competition reminds us that what happens in one country may not stay there. Learn more here.

Autocratic regimes like Vladimir Putin’s Russia have enacted measures that oppress their citizens under the guise of fighting the coronavirus. The Trump administration should seek to hold governments like Russia accountable. But that is not the case this time, note Dalibor Rohac and Melissa Hooper in a Hill op-ed. If the administration is silent, then Congress must act. Congress can direct, structure, and fund federal action needed to combat autocratic power grabs and coordinate such efforts with other similarly minded nations. Continue here.

Michael Rubin writes: This is why not only Congress and the Pentagon, but also the State Department and the National Security Council should consider the impact of rebasing U.S. forces leaving Germany in Poland, especially when other alternatives exist in the Baltics, Romania, or the Czech Republic. The question then becomes whether Poland’s anti-democratic leaders will see the U.S. presence less as a defense against Russia and more as a means to immunize themselves from returning to the democratic order. U.S. forces should be in Europe to protect the liberal order, not to accelerate its end. – The National Interest

Turkey entrenches further into Libya as rivals strike back
Turkey’s government has signaled that its military intervention on the side of Libya’s internationally recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) will deepen, part of a broader campaign to assert dominance in the gas-rich eastern Mediterranean and to bolster flagging support at home.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s communications office announced via Twitter late Sunday that Libya’s largest airbase, Al Jufra, and the coastal city of Sirte will be among its next targets. Both are controlled by the GNA’s Libyan National Army (LNA) foes led by the eastern warlord Khalifa Hifter.
Read Full Article  

Turkey launches ground incursion into Iraqi Kurdistan 
Turkey sent ground forces into the Kurdistan Region of Iraq today to attack suspected Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) targets. The operation is in the Haftanin area near the Turkish border. The ground operation follows Turkish bombings of suspected PKK targets across Iraq on Monday. Turkey has used ground troops before and has military bases in the area. Many locals and the Iraqi federal government have condemned the attacks. 
Read More  
rudaw.net

US sanctions on Syria go into effect 
A new wave of US sanctions on Syria goes into effect today as part of efforts to push the Syrian government into UN-led negotiations to end the nine-year war. “Our aim is to deprive the Assad regime of the revenue and the support it has used to commit the large-scale atrocities and human rights violations that prevent a political resolution and severely diminish the prospects for peace,” US Ambassador to the UN Kelly Craft told the Security Council on Tuesday. The Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act sanctions anyone who provides support to the Syrian government’s military operations or does business with Syria’s military, energy, construction and engineering sectors. Syria is reeling from an economic crisis, while rare anti-government protests are ongoing in the south. 
Read More  
reuters.com

Seth J. Frantzman writes: The US and Iran might find themselves on the same side in Libya via Turkey. It all hinges on Cairo now. If Cairo has a military footprint in Libya it can do what Turkey has successfully done and leverage it for concessions. For now Egypt must watch and contemplate the next step. Everyone is also looking to Washington to do more than just hint that it supports both Egypt’s ceasefire proposal and Ankara’s approach. What happens next will also affect Washington’s other allies, in Jerusalem and Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. – Jerusalem Post

Blaise Misztal is a fellow at Hudson Institute. His research program focuses on the Middle East, Europe, and strategic competition. Most recently, Misztal served as the Executive Director of the Task Force on Extremism in Fragile States, a congressionally mandated project convened by the U.S. Institute of Peace. Prior to that, he was director of the Bipartisan Policy Center’s national security program.
Relevant articles:
·       
https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-turkey-shunned-russian-gas-its-companies-amassed-debt-11592216429
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https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/irans-zarif-went-to-turkey-to-push-close-relations-631517
·         
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/turkish-plan-to-invade-greece-leaked-in-secret-reveal-report-631641
·         
https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/06/18/world/middleeast/18reuters-turkey-blast.html
·         
https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/06/turkey-strikes-pkk-kurdistan-iraq-sinjar-erdogan-hdp-akp.html

Russia’s ally in Libya is battered by defeats. But Moscow has wider goals to expand its influence.

How Russia made Hemeimeem air base its African hub
The satellite images published on May 26 by AFRICOM appear to confirm reports that Russian MiG-29 jet fighters had flown to Libya. In fact, the MiG-29s travelled to Libya via Russia's Hemeimeem air base in Syria, and as this latest episode makes clear, Hemeimeem plays a central role in Russia’s growing involvement in both the Mediterranean and Africa.
Read Article

Spring 2020 Issue Middle East Journal 

​The Congella Power Station completed in 1928 was one of the first power plants built and owned by Eskom.

Gregory Copley, Defense and Foreign Affairs; in re: The South Africa Act 1909 amalgamated the four previously separate British colonies: Cape Colony, Colony of Natal, Transvaal Colony, and Orange River Colony.  A 1960 referendum  legitimized the country becoming the Republic of South Africa. On 27 April 1994, after decades of armed struggle, terrorism and international opposition to Apartheid, a deeply cruel anti-Black system invented and instituted by the Boers,  the African National Congress (ANC) achieved victory in the country's first democratic election. Since then, the African National Congress has governed South Africa, in an alliance with the South African Communist Party and the Congress of South African Trade Unions.

The economy of South Africa is the second largest in Africa, after Nigeria. At present, South Africa has an extreme and persistent high unemployment rate of over 25%, which interacts with other socioeconomic problems such as: inadequate education, poor health and high levels of crime.

The ANC, home to the most distinguished revolutionaries of the Twentieth Century, was long seen as the saviour of the entire society.  As it now stands, it looks as though the ANC has failed; that much-publicized criminality at high levels seems to have looted the state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to such a degree that the entire country might break into separate divisions. How this might occur is discussed in the segment.
..  ..  ..  
With salutations to Johnnie Mfanafuthi Makatini (1932-1988

US B-1 bomber drills aim at China, Russia  By Stephen Bryan
In three major military operations, the US used B-1 bombers in missions aimed at Chinese fortified reefs and islands in the South China Sea, a strategic foray into the Okhotsk Sea aimed at Russia and a Black Sea mission that involved elements of Ukraine’s Air Force. Read More

Trump’s China policy at a cul-de-sac  By MK Bhadrakumar
This past week has been a catastrophic seven days that shook America. Some of the debris may have fallen on President Donald Trump. Most importantly, the Trump administration has lost the plot on China. Read More

Cleo Paskal, non-resident senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, @CleoPaskal, in re: Eastern Ladakh, China invades India.  China normally does fur steps forward, three steps back; but India [no longer is playing].  India has banned 59 Chinese apps: turns out they're espionage devised to monitor location, payment, et al. Can be used for blackmail and industrial espionage. Also China needs metadata for its military AI development. Effect is economic really huge: banned TikTok, removing $6 billion valuation, and=s well as allows development in India. Very smart and quick!  It'd be excellent if the US did the same thing, which it’s contemplating.  China doesn’t let Facebook or even Wikipedia into China.  . . . Decoupling the US and China—get the Chinese out of our society. 
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tiktok-pompeo-united-states-weighing-ban-chinese-social-media-apps/

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/internet/us-mulling-tiktok-ban-indias-digital-strike-to-hurt-more-than-what-china-expected/videoshow/76838104.cms 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tiktok-pompeo-united-states-weighing-ban-chinese-social-media-apps/

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/internet/us-mulling-tiktok-ban-indias-digital-strike-to-hurt-more-than-what-china-expected/videoshow/76838104.cms

India’s Pangong Pickle: New Delhi’s Options After Its Clash with China by Christopher Clary and Vipin Narang

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/pakistani-troop-movement-in-ladakh-sources-say-china-in-talks-with-pak-terror-groups-1695712-2020-07-01

From India’s Himalayan Border to Our Local Cell Networks, It’s Time to Push Back Against China

INDIA:
India’s Submarines Make Strategic Move to Dominate Indian Ocean
By H I Sutton, Forbes: “The most visible aspect of India’s programs are new nuclear-powered submarines that are being built, but beneath the surface there are other strategic steps to help ensure its Navy’s dominance of the Indian Ocean."

China’s Strategic Assessment of the Ladakh Clash by Yun Sun
Revelations about Russia’s Nuclear Deterrence Policy by Cynthia Robert

Here's a brief history of the disputed border, from the Times

Don't Believe the China Hype // Michael Schuman, The Atlantic: When it comes to assessing Chinese power, things aren't always as they seem.

Al jazeera BBC CNN

China’s Skirmish With India Is Only Its Latest Aggression During the Pandemic
Thomas Joscelyn — The Dispatch
China and India have quarreled over their border for nearly six decades. But Monday was the deadliest day in their dispute since 1975. At least 20 Indian soldiers were killed when a skirmish broke out in the Galwan river valley in the remote Ladakh region of the Himalayas. Tensions had been mounting for weeks, with President Trump offering to mediate the dispute in late May. (Neither side took him up on the offer.) The Indian government previously warned that the People’s Republic of China (PRC), ruled by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), has sent thousands of troops into the area since the beginning of the year. Naturally, the CCP accuses India of being the provocateur. Read More

James Stavridis writes: The U.S. has limited capital to engage in this particular dispute. Although President Donald Trump offered to mediate in a recent tweet, the chances of China accepting such assistance are negligible. A better approach is for the U.S. to continue moving closer to India, making it clear to Beijing that it will not allow New Delhi to be pressured out of greater alignment with Washington. – Bloomberg
​
Arif Rafiq writes: Indian officials often speak of a two-front war with China and Pakistan. […]China’s ingresses along the LAC provide an opportunity for both India and the United States to assess the second-order effects of their policies in South Asia. That reassessment must begin with Kashmir. – The National Interest 

Aparna Pande writes: The crisis unleashed by the coronavirus pandemic will almost definitely create a new global order, and India could emerge stronger. But for that, Indians will have to shed the complacency that comes from believing that the nation’s long history makes its rise inevitable.[…] To appeal to neighbours, counter rivals, and bolster alliances, India needs to be economically strong with a rising GDP and a skilled labour force, while welcoming foreign investment and less government regulations. – Hudson Institute

Is courting India a waste of time?
Derek Scissors | AEIdeas

The wisest course for managing international agreements is ruthless pragmatism, a tonic antidote to the empty internationalism that sustained Open Skies.  Learn more here.

A flare-up in a long-running border dispute between China and India has raised the temperature in their bilateral relationship. Yet it may be just as significant for the trilateral US-China-India relationship, points out Hal Brands in a Bloomberg op-ed. As the US-China rivalry goes global, India may be the only nonaligned country that can make a major difference in the balance of influence and advantage. The good news is that India and the US have a great deal to gain if they can hold the line against China — and much to lose if they cannot. Continue here.

Last month saw several face-offs between the Indian Army and China’s People’s Liberation Army along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), their long-disputed shared border, high in the Himalayas. While the entanglement in North Sikkim was resolved locally, within the framework of mutually agreed-upon protocols, the ones in Eastern Ladakh have lingered, giving rise to speculation about China’s intentions. – CNN ​

Archana Chaudhary writes: India must be careful how far it pushes. The government changed rules to allow hydroxychloroquine exports to the U.S. at Trump’s request last month, yet two-thirds of India’s bulk drugs and drug intermediates come from China. There are similar levels of dependency from electronics to auto parts. Chinese investments of more than $8 billion have been made in India, mostly in finance and technology startups. – Bloomberg

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/27/china-and-india-move-troops-as-border-tensions-escalate
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/us-ready-to-mediate-india-china-border-stand-off-trump/articleshow/76036991.cm

Fang-Yu Chen, Austin Wang, Charles K.S. Wu and Yao-Yuan Yeh write: Thus, it is incorrect to describe Tsai as either pro-status quo or pro-independence. Some scholars argue that Tsai’s pro-sovereignty mindset and policies, which have been seen as a direction of seeking independence by China, should be described as a form of “anti-annexation.” This is by far the best and most accurate approach to describe Tsai’s stance on cross-Strait relations. – The National Interest

Seth Cropsey writes: Since learning the danger of allowing powerful U.S. and allied forces to gather and strike from nearby waters and land in the two Gulf Wars, our potential foes continue to adapt using cyber, space, grey zone tactics, lawfare and compromised 5G technology, a widening spectrum that leads to an unlimited expansion of the battlefield. To assure its dominance, the U.S. must lead in all. The technological means to do so in grey zone tactics, particularly in ISRT, is one category where our advantage is established. We should use it to the hilt. – The HIll

Libya is Now the Middle East's Most Important Proxy War  by Seth Frantzman
The Spectator
May 20, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/60969/libya-is-now-middle-easts-most-important-proxy-wa

Report: Child soldiers deployed to Libya by Turkish-backed Syrian National Army
 An exclusive report, citing sources on the ground in Syria and Libya, says Syrian teenagers are being sent to Libya to take part in the civil war there.

Putin is Betting on a Losing Horse (As In Iran)
By Alireza Nader, The National Interest: "The Russian-Iranian alliance, a defining feature of power politics in the Middle East, is experiencing strains that should be exploited by the Trump administration."

U.S., ASIA:
Will Vietnam Lease Cam Ranh Bay to the U.S.?
By Carl Thayer, The Diplomat: "Rumors are circulating that Vietnam is considering leasing Cam Ranh Bay or some of its islands in the South China Sea to the United States on a long-term basis as a supply base and/or stop over point as a counter to recent aggressiveness in the South China Sea."​

Trump Should Not Fall for Erdogan’s S-400 Gambit
By Aykan Erdemir & Luc Sasseville, War on the Rocks: "On April 20, Turkey made public its decision to postpone the planned April activation of the S-400 air defense system it received from Russia last July, citing delays related to the COVID-19 outbreak. Erdogan’s latest move results from his growing desperation to secure Western financing amid a pandemic-induced economic crisis, and is part of a broader charm offensive to convince Trump to grant Ankara a financial lifeline in the form of a swap deal with the U.S. Federal Reserve."

An internal report presented by China's Ministry of State Security warned that global anti-China sentiment is at its highest since the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown.
 
The more we learn about the origins of the coronavirus, the more compelling the case against China grows. In an op-ed for the Hoover Institution, John Yoo and Robert J. Delahunty argue the world must create incentives for China that will force it to improve its behavior. That may well demand harsh measures that will force China to experience the full costs of its recklessness, but without such incentives, China may inflict this kind of tragedy on the world again. Read it here.

It’s time to be more strategic about trade with China. In an American Interest op-ed, Gary Schmitt and Craig Kennedy argue that although China is indeed a bad actor, it is also a global economic power from whom we cannot simply file for divorce. That said, Washington should develop a mechanism for ensuring that the US is not dependent on strategic goods “made in China.” What is needed is a Committee on Foreign Imports to the United States (CFIUS) — a CFIUS 2.0 Continue here.

A Lowy Institute scholar recently argued that lifting sanctions on Iran could both ease tensions in the Middle East and win favor among Iranians. But he is wrong on both counts, argues Michael Rubin in an op-ed for The Australian. The greatest reason sanctions relief does not help Iranians is Khatam al-Anbiya, the economic wing of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that controls almost 40 percent of Iran’s economy. Simply put, Iran has ample resources to better the lives of its citizenry. To lift sanctions, however, would incentivize not only Iran but also every other dictatorship to point a gun at the heads of their citizenry and demand cash from the West. Continue here.

A political battle is raging in Iraq over the selection of a new prime minister. In a RealClearWorld op-ed, Kenneth Pollack assesses the appointment of Mustafa al-Kadhimi, an Iraqi nationalist selected with the task of forming a government, and concludes that if there were ever a moment to build a strong independent Iraq, the time is now. Mustafa Kadhimi may be the last, best hope to begin moving Iraq in a better direction. Shouldn’t we help him help us? Read here.

After having lied about Turkey’s immunity to the coronavirus crisis in its initial weeks, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his advisers now seek to deflect blame and attention elsewhere. While some US diplomats have drunk Erdoğan’s Kool-Aid, Erdoğan’s decision to respond to the crisis by furthering his crackdown shows that the problem is the Turkish leader, not us, argues Michael Rubin in a Washington Examiner op-ed. The US government should take no action that endorses, embraces, or enables Erdoğan’s continued leadership in Turkey. Read more here.

Iran's Satraps in Lebanon Face Crisis by Jonathan Spyer
The Jerusalem Post
April 30, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/60811/lebanons-iranian-implanted-deep-state-out-of-options

Hereditary dictatorships rarely last past three generations, writes Oriana Skylar Mastro, and collapse may be in the cards for North Korea.
READ MORE

China has no reason to make a deal on nuclear weapons  
Hal Brands | Bloomberg Opinion

Intel: US Syria envoy says Turkey must put pressure on Idlib militants
Turkey should keep up the pressure on the hard-line Islamist group in control of Syria’s embattled Idlib province, the US special envoy for Syria said today.

​Extremist Syrian rebel group tests Turkey's limits in Idlib
Jihadi forces resisting the reopening of the key M4 highway in Idlib are squeezed between Turkey’s amity and military might, but Turkey itself is not without dilemmas.

Intel: US doubles down on Turkey S-400 sanctions threats
 The Donald Trump administration has doubled down on threats to sanction Turkey should it activate the Russian S-400 missile defense system.

Facing the probability that Russia and China are set to sell conventional arms to Iran this October, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is preparing a legal argument to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to extend the arms embargo stipulated in UN Resolution 2231. While President Donald Trump withdrew from the political aspect of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the US remains a legal participant in the latter resolution. However, the Trump administration’s approach prioritizes short-term gains and sacrifices long-term returns in the US’s ability to work in the UNSC. AEI’s Gary Schmitt argues that extending the arms embargo on Iran is a case of high-stakes poker. The bet here is that our European allies will reluctantly fold in favor of an extension, fearing Secretary Pompeo will go “all in” with a snapback of sanctions.

Since the US unilaterally pulled out of the JCPOA in 2018, Iran has violated the deal’s restrictions: increasing its stockpile of enriched uranium, putting it in reach of producing a nuclear weapon; using aid money to finance proxy-terror operations in Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen; and continuing funding for a Revolutionary Guards–dominated economy that fuels corruption and oppression of Iranians. Last week, Iran launched its first military satellite into orbit, marking a military program that foreshadows its development of intercontinental ballistic missiles. The October deadline will be a fight with great implications, but how much influence is the US able to wield? Can Iran really afford to spend lavishly on weapons while still calling for relief funds to weather the pandemic?

Hal Brands argues that as US-China tensions rise, the cuts to defense spending put American defense strategy at risk. A policy of confrontation can invite disaster if undertaken without an adequate military shield. It would be ironic if the coronavirus was what finally convinced many Americans to take the challenge from China seriously — but left the nation too weak to do much about it. Read more here.

Pakistanis may soon die en masse for China’s interests, and the Pakistani government may allow it to happen. At issue is the nature of how Pakistan’s leaders have shifted their alliance partners from the United States to China. Michael Rubin took to The National Interest to argue that Pakistanis will quickly realize what a devil’s bargain their country has made. Pakistanis may recognize that China seeks not a partner, but a colonial vassal, the deaths of whose citizens it sees as wholly irrelevant. Read it here.

The Challenge of Boko Haram Defectors in Chad by Bulama Bukarti

Salafi-jihadi ecosystem in the Sahel
Katherine Zimmerman | American Enterprise Institute

Interactive graphic: Salafi-jihadi ecosystem in the Sahel
Katherine Zimmerman | American Enterprise Institute

Mozambique Is Emerging As The Next Islamic Extremist Hotspot // Patrick Tucker: A terror group affiliated with the Islamic State has been stepping up tactics and claiming bigger targets.

Secretary of Defense Mark Esper has been considering drawing down US military commitments in Africa as the Pentagon rebalances toward competing more directly with Russia and China. The coronavirus pandemic and effect on Africa has delayed the expected decision over whether to cut troop numbers, close a new drone base in Niger, and end support to the French in the Sahel.

In a recent AEI report, Katherine Zimmerman assesses Salafi-jihadi groups in West Africa’s Sahel region and concludes that groups such as al Qaeda and the Islamic State are strengthening rapidly.

Al Qaeda– and Islamic State–linked groups have expanded from an initial insurgency in northern Mali to neighboring Burkina Faso and Niger, and they continue to grow stronger despite the array of security forces aligned against them. The threat is often forgotten in US policy circles until attacks occur like the one in Niger that killed four US servicemen in October 2017.

​Reducing US operations and the support the US provides to French and other forces in Africa would weaken the ability of US diplomats and aid workers who rely on the security US forces provide to operate, open space for global competitors, and increase instability in the region. Does the US have the adequate military strength to manage a rising China while still dealing with terrorist threats? 

Is H. R. McMaster the New Mr. X?
By Francis P. Sempa, The Diplomat: “Comparing McMaster’s China prescriptions to George Kennan’s famous containment strategy."

https://www.amazon.com/Invention-Surgery-Medicine-Renaissance-Revolution/dp/B082XHP3YJ/ref=tmm_aud_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr=

Why US outsourced bat virus research to Wuhan
The US National Institutes of Health (NIH) funded bat-coronavirus research in the Wuhan Institute of Virology in China. Back in October 2014, the US government had placed a federal moratorium on gain-of-function (GOF) research – altering natural pathogens to make them more deadly and infectious – as a result of rising fears about a possible pandemic caused by an accidental or deliberate release of these genetically engineered monster germs. Read More

Why Beijing must change before it’s too late
The Covid-19 pandemic is really a consequence, not a cause, of the geopolitical confrontation between the United States and China. Had there been mutual trust and good bilateral relations, Beijing might have been less defensive about the early outbreak of the disease, the US might have better understood the spread of the virus out of Wuhan and the global damage of the deadly flu might have been better contained. Read More

Possible Chinese Nuclear Testing Stirs U.S. Concern
By Gordon Lubold, The Wall Street Journal: “China might be secretly conducting nuclear tests with very low explosive power despite Beijing's assertions that it is strictly adhering to an international accord banning all nuclear tests, according to a new arms-control report to be made public by the State Department."

​Why Is Turkey Embracing Hamas?  by Khaled Abu Toameh  • 

Leak Reveals Jihadists’ Weakening Grip in Syria’s Idlib by Sam Heller

Counter-Terrorism in East Africa: The Death of Yusuf Jiis with Christoper Anzalone

AFRICOM kills ‘foundational’ Shabaab leader in strike
AFRICOM has stepped up its air campaign against Shabaab since the beginning of the year, targeting the group 33 times.

​Generation Jihad: Ep. 4 – ISIS: A History of the Caliphate​
Hosts Tom Joscelyn and Bill Roggio discuss the rise of ISIS and how the idea of building a caliphate in Iraq evolved over time. Bill witnessed the jihadists' earliest state-building efforts during multiple embeds in Iraq.

Five Patterns of the Putin Regime
On March 26, IMR launched the “Russia under Putin” project, which includes a timeline of the country’s key political developments over the last 20 years. This factual digest serves not only to refresh one’s memory but also to retrace the Putin regime’s evolution and its modus operandi. IMR’s Olga Khvostunova highlights the key patterns of this regime and explains what they mean. ≫

Stealth is something that Iran just doesn’t do. In fact, capable and domestically-produced military planes are also something they don’t do. Is the Shafaq a truly new creation? That’s extremely unlikely. Is it stealthy? Also unlikely. Chances are the Shafaq charade is a rebadged Russian Yak-130. Still, if it could ever enter serial production, it could be a decent trainer airframe. – The National Interest  ​

Pavel Luzin writes: Where Russia is really trying to improve its military space capabilities is in the following: opportunities for jamming and radio intelligence; sustainability of its command, control and communication systems; and the offensive capabilities against ground-based space infrastructure. The goal here is to prevent its adversaries from using of their space-related infrastructure. – Defense News

David Albright and Sarah Burkhard write: Apparently, the IAEA and Western governments did not know about this facility prior to the seizure of the Nuclear Archive. The site’s secrecy and documented involvement of Groups 5 and 7 of the Amad Plan suggest that Iran was not intending to declare this site to the IAEA, unless discovered, such as was the case with the Natanz enrichment plant and the Gchine uranium mine. – Institute for Science and International Security

Institute for the Study of War’s Katherine Lawlor and Brandon Wallace: Iran's proxies accelerate Soleimani's campaign to compel U.S. withdrawal from iraq

Katherine Lawlor and Brandon Wallace write:  Iran continues to escalate proxy attacks against the U.S. in Iraq, demonstrating that it remains undeterred despite the January 3 strike that killed IRGC – Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani and key Iraqi proxy leader Abu Mehdi al-Muhandis and subsequent U.S. strikes. Iran’s proxy network in Iraq is advancing its campaign to compel an American withdrawal by increasing the operational tempo of its attacks on U.S. and allied personnel. – Institute for the Study of War

​Turkey pursues Libya campaign despite growing financial woes
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is pressing ahead with his military venture in Libya even as the coronavirus pandemic is putting further strain on Ankara’s cash-strapped coffers.

Erdoğan Battles on Multiple Fronts in Risky Regional Power Bid
By Dr. James M. Dorsey, March 30, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is at odds with just about everybody. He is on opposite sides with Russia in Syria as well as Libya and is trying the patience of his US and European allies. Turkey and Russia are testing the limits of what was always at best an opportunistic, fragile partnership aimed at capitalizing on a seemingly diminishing US interest in the Middle East, already evident under President Barack Obama and continuing under Donald Trump, who is haphazardly redefining what he sees as America’s national interests.
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Start the Negotiations, End the Afghan War Now by Sultan Barakat and Barnett Rubin

Turkey and Russia: Not Friends After All
By Burak Bekdil, March 26, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: After a three-and-a-half-year marriage of convenience, Turkey and Russia have come to realize that they are fighting on opposite sides of two proxy wars: one in Syria and the other in Libya. This comes after Russia sold Turkey $2.5 billion worth of S-400 air defense systems, won a multibillion-dollar nuclear plant contract, signed up for a lucrative natural gas pipeline, and widened the gap between NATO and its part-time member Turkey.
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Turkey’s leak of Istanbul killing shows unlikely marriage with Iran under strain

The U.S. military said Thursday that air defense systems are “moving” into Iraq following attacks on American and coalition forces in recent weeks. The weapons include Patriot surface-to-air missiles and a variant of the Navy’s SeaRAM and CIWS, or close-in weapon system, which fires 3,000 rounds a minute, a defense official with knowledge of the order told Fox News. – Fox News

Zvi Bar’el writes: No sooner than one estimate is made of the economic damage the coronavirus epidemic is wreaking on the Middle East, a more dire forecast supercedes it. […]At the moment, these countries are split between those that are wealthy and hold huge foreign currency reserves that can help fund impressive economic assistance plans, and those that are poor and are now seeking to figure out how they will finance ongoing essential needs at a time when international financial institutions are concerned about making risky loans. – Haaretz

David Axe writes: On the night of July 15, 2016, elements of the Turkish military rose up against Pres. Recep Tayyip Erdogan — and very nearly succeeded in killing or capturing their controversial leader. A few military units remained steadfastly loyal to the embattled president. Among them — the 1st Main Jet Base in Eskisehir in northwestern Turkey. The base’s F-4E Terminator 2020 fighters flew to Erdogan’s aid during the direst hours of the daylong attempted coup. – The National Interest  ​

Michael Rubin writes: Here’s the point for U.S. policymakers: To target groups like the Badr Corps, Kata’ib Hezbollah, and Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq without first delegitimizing them allows these groups to depict themselves as martyrs and the United States as an enemy of Iraq. This enables recruitment and causes retrenchment. […]Only when this differentiation is achieved, will Iraqis broadly join in and accept the dissolution or destruction of the Iranian-backed Shi’ite militias. – The National Interest ​

RUSSIA RESTRUCTURES

Tarek Megerisi writes: At its core, Libya’s war has been driven by the aspirations of regional powers, after its transition was hijacked and run aground by them. It is this dynamic that explains why the situation is deteriorating so rapidly and why the west is turning a blind eye to it. […]It is driving a dangerous race to the bottom, at an important intersection between the African and Arab worlds, and should be a wake-up call to those whose interests lie in stability. – The Guardian ​

China's Real Disease: Not Coronavirus by Gordon G. Chang