Hannah Thoburn writes: Putin and his Kremlin seem to have successfully renewed their cadres. With a strong and trusted figure like Volodin at their head, it seems unlikely that anything—at least in this arena—will go awry for Putin’s continued control. – World Affairs Journal
Russia may jail its own separatists, but that did not hinder a nominally independent Russian organization from laying out the welcome mat on Sunday for an oddball, global troupe of liberation movements, including, improbably, four from the United States. – New York Times
Lilia Shevtsova writes: Putin’s Russia has thus succeeded in adapting to the ambiguities of a globalized world much faster and more thoroughly than the liberal democracies. True, the Crimea annexation and war with Ukraine have to some extent reminded the West of its principles. But the Western elite, long used to living in a postmodern world, is already looking for ways to return to it. In this world, there is no “containment”—only words like “competition” and “cooperation.” – The American Interest
Lilia Shevtsova writes: Putin’s Russia has thus succeeded in adapting to the ambiguities of a globalized world much faster and more thoroughly than the liberal democracies. True, the Crimea annexation and war with Ukraine have to some extent reminded the West of its principles. But the Western elite, long used to living in a postmodern world, is already looking for ways to return to it. In this world, there is no “containment”—only words like “competition” and “cooperation.” – The American Interest
Analysis: Incorporated into what appears to be an overarching strategy to assert Russian primacy in their self-identified “near abroad” the Russians are doing several things simultaneously, the most important of which may well be the large-scale exercises in Crimea as part of an apparent larger strategic war game. While many may argue the relative merits of various aspects of Russian power, sanctions, diplomatic isolation and other lines of effort, there is no denying that Russia is synchronizing a strategy to keep Europe off-balance, potential allies encouraged and possible enemies deterred from the Baltic to the Black Sea and further afield. – USNI News
A main concern in that transitional period will be money, or a shortage of it. Russia is spending billions of dollars to cover a budget shortfall of around 3 percent of gross domestic product because of low crude prices and international sanctions, and it is expected to exhaust one of its two sovereign funds next year. There are contesting visions of how to fill the gap, but cutbacks on social entitlements would be one likely solution. – Washington Post
Christopher Harmer writes: Debate about whether or not Russia would deliver the long-promised S-300 surface-to-air missile (SAM) system to Iran has somewhat obscured the strategic implications of the delivery that is now taking place…The deployment of S-300 components to Iran, however, is a strategic game changer in the region, and a challenge to which international attention should now turn. – AEI’s Critical Threats
Russia is bolstering its military presence on its western border, sending tens of thousands of soldiers to newly built installations within easy striking distance of Ukraine. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
Russian military forces are carrying out "logistical exercises" in and around the Crimean Peninsula, the Ukrainian Black Sea region that Russia annexed in 2014. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
Ukraine on Thursday reported the heaviest rebel shelling attack in the separatist east for a year in what the president said could be a prelude to a full-scale Russian invasion. - AFP
A member of former U.S. President George H.W. Bush's administration says that until the attempted coup against Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev in August 1991, nobody in the U.S. government imagined the Soviet Union would collapse by the end of 1991. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
Leon Aron writes: Tocqueville compared enduring national institutions to rivers that “after going underground re-emerge at another point, in new surroundings.” Driven deep into the ground today by the weight of repression, monopolistic propaganda, and war-mongering paranoia, the great August revolution, too, will re-emerge. – Foreign Policy
David Kramer writes: We should stay true to our values and restore the notion of “linkage” by making clear that Putin’s mistreatment of his own people — and his neighbors — will adversely affect our bilateral ties. The next administration should implement more aggressively the Magnitsky Act for gross human rights abuses and maintain — even ramp up — sanctions against Russia for its ongoing violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty. – Washington Post
Anders Aslund writes: The increasing opacity of Russian politics has opened a window of opportunity for Kremlinology to make a comeback. Many people ridicule the field of study as little more than reading tea leaves, but it can be a helpful analytical tool when done properly. – The American Interest
Martha Simms writes: Trump and his gang of Putin admirers have unexpectedly provided the realists with an opportunity to creep back from their Reagan-era exile—to the surprise of conservative internationalists. These differing views of U.S. power and foreign policy are in theory broad and cover all regions and issues. However, the U.S. relationship with Russia is bringing this disagreement front and center and is fast becoming a litmus test of one’s place within the party. – The Cipher Brief
Armenia/Azerbaijan
Matthew Bryza writes: It has been a long time since I have sensed any cause for optimism about the prospects of a political settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Indeed, Armenia and Azerbaijan nearly resumed full-scale war in April, when their troops clashed along the line of contact with a level of ferocity unprecedented during the twenty-four years since the previous ceasefire. As the dust has settled, however, two new openings have emerged, one rather unexpectedly from Russian President Vladimir Putin and another from a regional business leader. Both merit Washington’s close examination and perhaps its embrace.– Atlantic Council
Russian military forces are carrying out "logistical exercises" in and around the Crimean Peninsula, the Ukrainian Black Sea region that Russia annexed in 2014. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
Ukraine on Thursday reported the heaviest rebel shelling attack in the separatist east for a year in what the president said could be a prelude to a full-scale Russian invasion. - AFP
A member of former U.S. President George H.W. Bush's administration says that until the attempted coup against Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev in August 1991, nobody in the U.S. government imagined the Soviet Union would collapse by the end of 1991. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
Leon Aron writes: Tocqueville compared enduring national institutions to rivers that “after going underground re-emerge at another point, in new surroundings.” Driven deep into the ground today by the weight of repression, monopolistic propaganda, and war-mongering paranoia, the great August revolution, too, will re-emerge. – Foreign Policy
David Kramer writes: We should stay true to our values and restore the notion of “linkage” by making clear that Putin’s mistreatment of his own people — and his neighbors — will adversely affect our bilateral ties. The next administration should implement more aggressively the Magnitsky Act for gross human rights abuses and maintain — even ramp up — sanctions against Russia for its ongoing violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty. – Washington Post
Anders Aslund writes: The increasing opacity of Russian politics has opened a window of opportunity for Kremlinology to make a comeback. Many people ridicule the field of study as little more than reading tea leaves, but it can be a helpful analytical tool when done properly. – The American Interest
Martha Simms writes: Trump and his gang of Putin admirers have unexpectedly provided the realists with an opportunity to creep back from their Reagan-era exile—to the surprise of conservative internationalists. These differing views of U.S. power and foreign policy are in theory broad and cover all regions and issues. However, the U.S. relationship with Russia is bringing this disagreement front and center and is fast becoming a litmus test of one’s place within the party. – The Cipher Brief
Armenia/Azerbaijan
Matthew Bryza writes: It has been a long time since I have sensed any cause for optimism about the prospects of a political settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Indeed, Armenia and Azerbaijan nearly resumed full-scale war in April, when their troops clashed along the line of contact with a level of ferocity unprecedented during the twenty-four years since the previous ceasefire. As the dust has settled, however, two new openings have emerged, one rather unexpectedly from Russian President Vladimir Putin and another from a regional business leader. Both merit Washington’s close examination and perhaps its embrace.– Atlantic Council
Russian Missile Technology
Russian bombers are putting the Kh-32 cruise missile through its final trials, according to UPI. The missile, which reportedly travels at a blazing 3,300 miles per hour and can reach the stratosphere at heights of up to 130,000 ft., is being tested aboard long-range bombers. Russian sources also claim that the Kh-32 is impervious to the latest American air defense systems, able to evade Patriot missiles.
Russia isn't kitting up its fighter jets in Syria with its latest and greatest air-to-air weapons, according to the National Interest. Once in a great while, an Su-35S Flanker E will appear in Syria outfitted with R-77 RVV-SD missiles, but more often than not, Russian air-to-air defense is provided by Su-30SM Flanker-H and Su-34. Experts say the newer R-77 RVV-SD missiles remain in relatively shorter supply and Moscow isn't in a hurry to arm its fighter jets with advanced air-to-air loads because it's not sweating the possibility of a throwdown with American fighter jets in Syria.
Russian bombers are putting the Kh-32 cruise missile through its final trials, according to UPI. The missile, which reportedly travels at a blazing 3,300 miles per hour and can reach the stratosphere at heights of up to 130,000 ft., is being tested aboard long-range bombers. Russian sources also claim that the Kh-32 is impervious to the latest American air defense systems, able to evade Patriot missiles.
Russia isn't kitting up its fighter jets in Syria with its latest and greatest air-to-air weapons, according to the National Interest. Once in a great while, an Su-35S Flanker E will appear in Syria outfitted with R-77 RVV-SD missiles, but more often than not, Russian air-to-air defense is provided by Su-30SM Flanker-H and Su-34. Experts say the newer R-77 RVV-SD missiles remain in relatively shorter supply and Moscow isn't in a hurry to arm its fighter jets with advanced air-to-air loads because it's not sweating the possibility of a throwdown with American fighter jets in Syria.
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