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EMERGING THREAT ASSESSMENT
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NORTH AMERICA 

CHINESE BALLOONS MEAN BEIJING'S WAR PREPARATION; ISLAMIC AUTOCRACIES & ILLICIT DRUGS

2/15/2023

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Secure Communities: Stopping the Salafi-Jihadi Surge in Africa
 Emily Estelle Perez | February 2023

  • The next Salafi-jihadi terror threat to the West may originate in Africa. Insurgencies linked to al Qaeda and the Islamic State have formed, re-formed, spread, and grown entrenched on the continent over the past two decades. As Salafi-jihadi groups mature, they gain capabilities that they can marshal toward both local and international goals. Counterterrorism interventions have failed to secure communities, allowing Salafi-jihadi groups to capitalize repeatedly on conflicts and grievances to establish and expand their presence.

  • Africa is an increasingly important theater for geopolitical competition. The same conditions that benefit Salafi-jihadi groups also create openings for malign actors like the Russian Wagner Group. US policymakers should treat community security like public health, as a service provided to civilians that benefits Americans and Africans alike and helps maintain the world order that undergirds US freedom, safety, and prosperity.

  • An approach focused on securing communities should not require intervening everywhere at a large scale, but rather smart investments in preventive action and refocusing counterterrorism responses. The United States should work with African partners to develop policy approaches for preventing Salafi-jihadi insurgencies from forming whenever possible and containing or rolling them back when necessary. These approaches will require changing the focus and risk tolerance of US security policy in Africa while reforming interagency coordination to facilitate this new approach.
READ MORE
Russia Against The Rest
The Next Salafi-Jihadi Wave: Capabilities, Resources, and Opportunity
The Underestimated Insurgency: African States at Risk for Salafi-Jihadi Insurgencies
The Underestimated Insurgency, Continued: Salafi-Jihadi Capabilities and Opportunities in Africa
This In Brief explains why the IMF bailout won’t be the end of Pakistan’s economic woes.
Pakistani Taliban: The Most Powerful Anti-State Actor in the Country​
The Promise and Pitfalls of Underwater Domain Awareness, by Abhijit Singh
Steven B. Kamin, Carlos Arteta, and Franz Ulrich Ruch summarize the three types of shocks that drove US interest rate hikes in the past year, threatening the economic health of developing economies. Desmond Lachman warns that, contrary to popular belief among world leaders, China abandoning its zero-COVID policy is not enough to turn around its serious economic woes, which are bound substantially harm the global economy.
DOJ Reveals New Iran-backed Assassination Attempt on Iranian American Journalist
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