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EMERGING THREAT ASSESSMENT
GLOBAL STRIKE MEDIA.COM 
NORTH AMERICA 

ISRAELI EXISTENTIAL THREAT:  DENIAL

1/12/2021

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Israel Is Facing a Domestic Existential Threat
By Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen, January 12, 2021
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The Israeli government is living in denial about the growing violent anarchy in the Negev, the Galilee, and in certain cities. Putting a stop to this phenomenon, which is developing into an existential threat, requires an all-out effort to enhance the power of the military and the police alongside appropriate preparations by the State Attorney’s Office and the legal system to restore sovereignty and governance.

Continue to full article ->
Debating Yad Vashem
January 18, 2021
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The recent attempt by PM Netanyahu to appoint former IDF general and cabinet minister Effi Eitam as chairman of the Yad Vashem Holocaust Remembrance Center has stirred a heated public debate about the Center’s depiction of the Holocaust in recent years and its implications.
Two BESA associates have joined the debate.

Continue to full article ->

Al Qaeda in Iran–and Afghanistan
Israel’s Air Force attacks warehouses used to ‘store and stage Iranian weapons’ in Syria
Why Hasn't Anyone Attacked Iran's Nuclear Sites
Can Nigel Farage Reform the Tories After Brexit?
By STEPHEN MacLEAN, Special to the Sun | January 11, 2021
https://www.nysun.com/foreign/can-nigel-farage-reform-the-tories-after-brexit/91389/
Intra-Party Feud Of the Democrats Is the Key Battle
By IRA STOLL, Special to the Sun | January 11, 2021
https://www.nysun.com/national/in-divided-america-the-rift-to-watch-is-among/91388/
Our So-Called Foreign Policy: Trumply Deranged Coverage of a Trump Security Policy Win
Israel's Supreme Court Vindicates MEF News from the Middle East Forum
https://www.meforum.org/61924/israel-supreme-court-vindicates-mef

 Sunk Costs In Iraq And Afghanistan
by David R. Henderson via EconLog
Will Joe Biden have the guts and/or the sense to recognize sunk costs?
 
The Big Lesson Of 2020: Government Failure
by David R. Henderson via EconLog
The year 2020 gave us a huge amount of evidence about the relative merits of government intervention and free markets. The bottom line is that government failed massively and free markets triumphed spectacularly (with one major exception) within the constraints that government placed on them. The one apparent exception to government failure is Operation Warp Speed but, as we shall see, that apparent exception may not be an exception at all.

U.S. CHINA

Experts note that if the US is serious about refocusing on great-power competition with China and Russia and away from the Middle East, then withholding high-end reinforcements from the Persian Gulf is the hard call American leaders need to make. This argument is dangerous, argues Fred Kagan in a Hill op-ed. The US cannot allow its policy on China and Russia to starve the Middle East of essential military resources amid a crisis. As long as the US has a diplomatic presence in the region, the US must continue to deter escalation and prepare to protect its people. Learn more here.
US-China competition may not be a “superpower marathon,” but a decade-long sprint. In an AEI report, Michael Beckley and Hal Brands argue that the US will need a “danger zone” strategy geared toward preventing China from achieving major gains that could alter the long-term balance of power with respect to technology and Taiwan. Washington must harden its base infrastructure in Asia, help Taiwan fight asymmetrically, take part in long-term endeavors to reform the World Trade Organization, and reinvest in the domestic foundations of American innovation. 
Read the full report here.

Has the Chinese century begun, or is trouble brewing on the horizon? In a new AEI video, Michael Beckley dives into the hard numbers to reveal China's challenges in the decades ahead. He concludes that as China’s economic growth slows, it will continue to crack down on domestic dissent and deter foreign rivals from exploiting their financial woes. The United States must firmly but patiently contain China with a careful blend of deterrence, reassurance, and damage limitation. Watch the video here.

If Beijing poses such a clear global threat, then why has Washington struggled to build a coalition to counter its rise? In a Foreign Policy op-ed, Zack Cooper and Hal Brands debunk the belief that a single alliance will emerge to counter China. Instead, the US must forge a geostrategic coalition of countries in the Indo-Pacific, an economic alliance, a technological alliance, and a governance coalition. Unless the US adopts a more sophisticated approach to coalition building, it will be stuck trying to re-create a world that no longer exists. Continue here.

BIDEN & CHINA

Joe Biden will rediscover Russia when he assumes the presidency. In a Dispatch op-ed, Leon Aron notes that Biden should beware of the pull to befriend or even change Russia. Attempting to change countries’ behavior from the outside usually fails. However, the US doesn’t have to wait for a regime change to moderate hostile policies. Joe Biden’s first priority in his discovery of Russia should be readying credible, quick, and robust responses.  Learn more here.

Europe is divided by two different views on the threat Russia poses. In Sweden, increased preparedness for its aggression has produced larger defense budgets. In contrast, Germany and much of Western Europe seem far less concerned over such a “hard power” threat from Russia, explain Gary Schmitt and Craig Kennedy in a Hill op-ed. The new Joe Biden administration, with its clear desire to rebuild transatlantic ties, will look to Germany as the keystone to those efforts. Berlin could do well to look to Stockholm for an idea over what Washington could ask of its partners in Europe.  Read here.

BIDEN & GERMANY

No easy reset for US relations with Germany
The Faultline Between Futurists and Traditionalists in National Security 
by John Speed Meyers, David Jackson

Something Old, Something New 
by Francis J. Gavin

Why Israel's Massive Radar Deal With Slovakia Matters by Seth J. Frantzman
The National Interest
January 14, 2021

https://www.meforum.org/61940/israels-massive-radar-deal-with-slovakia
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