Manilia's Growing Ties with Beijing

Interview: In the span of six months, the U.S.-Philippines relationship has gone from a 25-year highpoint to a period of worrisome uncertainty. At the center of this shift is President Rodrigo Duterte, whose frequent anti-U.S. rhetoric and desire to shift his country’s foreign policy course signal that the U.S.-Philippines relationship will be hard pressed to maintain, let alone advance, the recent gains in strategic cooperation. The Cipher Brief spoke with Josh Kurlantzick, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, to learn more. – The Cipher Brief

Geopolitical Monitor

• Michael Auslin: Duterte’s defiance

• Duterte calls for US troops to exit Philippines in 2 years

• Philippines’ deal with China pokes a hole in US strategy

Arthur Herman writes: Our next president must reverse Obama’s disastrous course. The answer to dealing with China is linkage, i.e. making it clear that bad behavior in the South China Sea will have adverse consequences in areas where China has real interests, such as economic and diplomatic ties. But for now, the path to Chinese hegemony in the Pacific is wide open. It’ll be up to the next president to close it down – National Review Online

Hugh White writes: A future Asia in which China plays a bigger leadership role would be an Asia without many things the United States values, but many people would argue that those things are not so valuable that we should contemplate fighting a nuclear war to preserve them. Unless U.S. leaders are willing publically to argue that such people are wrong and plainly convince a majority of Americans that America should and would be willing to fight a nuclear war to preserve U.S. leadership in Asia, Washington will not be able to convince China of its resolve and deter China from pursuing its ambitions. And it is hard to see any American leader stepping up to that task anytime soon. – War on the Rocks

Heather Wilson, Jacqueline Varas, and Rachel Hoff write: The rules for the future of commerce in the Asia-Pacific are being written. The only question is, who will write them? Will the United States choose to play an active role and ensure the trade regime favors U.S. interests and allies? Or will the United States sit back and allow China to fill the vacuum? Opposing TPP opens the door for China to replace the United States as the predominant regional power in the Asia-Pacific. Ultimately, that will hurt the domestic economy and foreign policy interests alike. – American Action Forum

Whether he knows it or not, Mr. Duterte is following a strategy that leaders used throughout the Cold War: balancing between the powers by threatening to change loyalties. That strategy’s track record illuminates why Mr. Duterte’s seemingly reckless actions have borne him such fruit, and may offer a hint of his goals. – New York Times
 
Cesar Conda writes: Perhaps [Duterte] hopes his virulent anti-American rhetoric can be calibrated to please his new Chinese strategic partners, while he simultaneously maintains tenuous ties with the United States. If so, it is a dangerous calculation. Because there are limits to how much anti-American vitriol can be tolerated before America's friendship with and support for the Philippines is permanently undermined. – The Weekly Standard