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EMERGING THREAT ASSESSMENT
GLOBAL STRIKE MEDIA.COM 
NORTH AMERICA 

mosul:  when??

5/1/2016

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After a day of sleeping, praying and even swimming in the Green Zone, the government citadel historically off limits to ordinary Iraqis, protesters began leaving Sunday evening on orders from the man who had sent them: Moktada al-Sadr, the influential Shiite cleric. – New York Times
The Islamic State said Saturday that it used a truck bomb packed with three tons of explosives to target Shiite pilgrims as they walked to a shrine in Baghdad, in an attack that killed at least 23 people. – Washington Post
 
Iraq’s government has taken “meaningful steps” toward bringing minority Sunnis and Kurds into the military and government but hasn’t done enough to stop the abuse of citizens by Shiite-dominated militias, according to a U.S. assessment. - Bloomberg
Emma Sky writes: The sad reality is that Iraq has become ungovernable, more a state of militias than a state of institutions. As long as that state of affairs continues, even a weakened Islamic State, which has been losing territory and support, will find a home in Iraq, drawing on Sunni fears of corruption and incompetence by the Shia-dominated government. - Politico
Mosul next. Isn’t Mosul always next? As Iraqi forces slowly gather steam to push on the city, “virtually every major armed group in Iraq and their foreign patrons, including local Sunni Arabs backed by Turkey, Shiite militias supported by Iran, and American-equipped Kurdish forces are jockeying for a piece of the action,” in a smart new piece. “Despite a campaign more than a year in the making,” they note, “Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has yet to forge a coherent political plan that can bridge the divide between the rival groups, all but certainly pushing back a military operation yet again, U.S. officials and experts said.”
The push to capture Mosul from the Islamic State inches forward ever so slightly as Iraqi forces took the village of Mahana, in Ninevah province. The capture marks the first forward movement for Iraqi security forces since an offensive three weeks ago stalledamid poor weather, slow movement and desertions. This week's advance was supported by U.S. airstrikes and puts Iraqi forces in range of Qayyara, the capture of which could help cut the Islamic State in Mosul's lines of communication to areas it controls surrounding the city.
David Ignatius writes: The battle for Mosul, about 35 miles north, must begin with the seizure of such Islamic State positions along the Tigris River. But the Iraqi army isn’t ready yet to take a small, well-fortified village such as Al-Nasr. So it’s hard to imagine that Mosul itself could be cleared by the end of the year, as the Obama administration has hoped. – Washington Post
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