Brexit: Waiting for Elizabeth
Editorial of The New York Sun | April 4, 2019
https://www.nysun.com/editorials/brexit-waiting-for-queen-elizabeth/90638/
It looks -- at least to us -- like Brexit is going to have to be decided by Queen Elizabeth II. Will Her Majesty give her Royal Assent to the bill the Commons has just passed outlawing a so-called no-deal-Brexit? That is, will she be the one to forsake the independence of her own kingdom? Or will she protect the monarchy, which has been sovereign for a thousand years?
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Kazakhstan After Nazarbayev: The First Priority is Continuity by Deirdre Tynan​

Rauf Mammadov writes: Central Asia’s strategic location, vast resources, and predominantly Muslim population mean that Gulf states are likely to continue expanding their influence in the region[…]. But a larger Gulf state presence in the region also means rivalry with Russia and China. Saudi Arabia has established a unique collaboration with Moscow to stabilize global oil prices while at the same time competing with Russia for the lucrative Chinese market. The Gulf states will likely need to continue walking a tightrope to maintain good relations with Central Asia’s two big neighbors as they expand their presence in the region. – Middle East Institute

National Security Group Reestablished With Focus on China Threat
By Bill Gertz, The Washington Free Beacon: “Creation of the Committee on the Present Danger-China follows three earlier iterations of the storied organization that played influential roles in American national security policy beginning in the 1950s and throughout the Cold War and after."

The Kremlin Prepares to Defend Venezuela’s Maduro Regime by All Means
By Pavel Felgenhauer, Eurasia Daily Monitor: "The fact that this mission in Venezuela is headed by such a prominent military commander indicates the importance of the engagement. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that the Russian military specialists, experts and advisors will stay in Venezuela “as long as it takes and as long the Venezuelan government wants them” and will be helping to “realize [bilateral] military-technical cooperation agreements.”"

ASIA TIMES

 Two Russian military planes arrived in Venezuela over the weekend carrying cargo and an estimated 100 soldiers.

The U.S. Is Running Low on Options to Force Maduro Out 
// Uri Friedman and Kathy Gilsinan
The Trump administration has already deployed visa restrictions, sanctions, and even an embargo on Venezuelan oil. What else is left?

https://www.amazon.com/Last-Days-Kim-Jong-Changing/dp/1612346111/ref=sr13?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1523320955&sr=1-3

Iran's Ballistic Missile Program: New Developments By Farhad Rezaei, March 12, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Iran’s rapid development of missile expertise has raised concerns in Washington and among its allies about Tehran’s intentions. Despite international censure, the Revolutionary Guards have been able to develop the largest and most diverse ballistic missile arsenal in the region. Tehran is determined to develop and acquire ever more advanced and accurate ballistic missiles – but its efforts to achieve that goal are hampered by American and Israeli determination to subvert it.
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 Unmasking war's changing character
(Modern War Institute) There seems to be widespread agreement that the character of war is changing but little consensus as to exactly how. 

 Africa: A continent where partnership is in demand
(Military Times) The strength of the United States is reflected by its values, diversity and what we can offer the world as a collective whole. 

WSJ:  AFRICA PAGE

 Hundreds of demonstrators took to the streets in Khartoum, Sudan’s capital, to protest against President Omar al-Bashir. Security forces rounded up some of the protesters.

WSJ

US missteps in Somalia benefit our enemies 
Michael Rubin | NationalReview.com 

Micheal Rubin writes: Arguably, Somalia—rather than Afghanistan—is America’s longest war. […], the failure even to coordinate with those controlling key territory most successful again Al-Shaabab, pirates, and weapons smugglers suggests that, while the Pentagon is willing to spend money, AFRICOM is not prepared to win. – American Enterprise Insitute

The US is handing over the counterterrorism mission in West Africa to local partners
Emily Estelle | AEIdeas 
We are fixated on whether the Islamic State is defeated in Syria and Iraq (spoiler alert: it’s not), but we are missing the risk of a massive, and lucrative, expansion of the Salafi-jihadi movement in West Africa. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/03/04/why-is-china-refusing-stop-flow-fentanyl/?utm_term=.54f140f79ff3

ASIA TIMES

Turkey: Putin's Ally in NATO? by Burak Bekdil
Gatestone Institute
March 19, 2019
https://www.meforum.org/58015/turkey-putin-ally-nato

Aaron Stein writes: The S-400 saga is a microcosm of broader, structural changes driving the United States and Turkey apart. Beyond personality politics, it is now simply a fact that Washington and Ankara have different interests in the Middle East and view one another as hindrances to realizing national goals. Given this reality, it would be imprudent for the United States (and European F-35 operators) not to study its options, and start looking at ways to mitigate the risk to the F-35. – War On The Rocks

Turkey is changing the Middle East, but the US doesn't get it
(Bloomberg) For at least 10 years, the region has been caricatured as divided into two camps: a pro-Iranian coalition and a looser but larger group that opposes Iran's ambitions. For short, it’s sometimes foolishly reduced to a Sunni-Shiite sectarian divide.

Erin Dunne writes: Turkey is an important ally occupying a key geographic position at the crossroads of Central Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. That has made the country a strategic ally hosting airbases and missiles and serving as a launch point for U.S. and NATO operations in the Middle East. Those same strategic considerations have also made Turkey a prime target for other foreign powers, Russia chief among them. Increased relations between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin is a clear blow to Washington’s interests, threatening to block U.S. access to the Middle East and cut its regional influence. – Washington Examiner

Micheal Rubin writes: The German government’s celebration of Iran’s Islamic Revolution may have been gratuitous, but it was consistent with decades, if not more than a century, of German foreign policy. For successive German governments, lucrative contracts have always trumped human rights and, absent any moral clarity in German political culture, will continue to do so. – Washington Examiner

Michael Eisenstadt and Soner Cagaptay write: Although President Trump was following through on an oft-repeated campaign pledge when he announced a full withdrawal in December, the decision was still viewed by many as a hasty move that could upset the fragile equilibrium created by the U.S. military presence in Syria. […] In the end, President Trump will have to reconcile two incompatible campaign promises—disengaging from the Middle East or defeating IS. Doing so means making hard choices that may not align with his preferences, but could go far toward safeguarding U.S. interests in the region. – Washington Institute ​

The Erasure of the Islamic State's Caliphate Won't Ensure Its Defeat
By Scott Stewart, Stratfor Worldview: “A number of external factors greatly aided the revival of the Islamic State in Iraq and its expansion into the larger and more expansive Islamic State."

Mired in recriminations, Turkish-Egyptian ties remain stagnant
Prospects for improved relations between Ankara and Cairo appear dimmer than ever following recent executions in Egypt.

Asli Aydintasbas writes: If you think Turkey’s relationship with the United States is currently very tumultuous, you haven’t seen anything yet. The two allies have had bouts of hysteria on and off since 2015, mostly to do with Ankara resenting U.S. support for Syrian Kurds and Washington increasingly finding its longtime ally an unreliable partner in the Middle East.[…] As much as a strongman as Erdogan appears, the S-400 controversy actually demonstrates the weak position he has put Turkey in. His effort to demonstrate that Turkey has choices and is not an American vassal has so alienated Turkey’s Western partners and weakened its economy that the country now risks becoming a Russian vassal. – Washington Post

• Heritage’s Thomas Spoehr and Megan Rohn: What a denuclearization agreement with North Korea should include
  

Road From Hanoi to Pyongyang Goes Via Beijing
By James Stavridis, Nikkei Asian Review: “Trump's best hope of a lasting nuclear deal with North Korea depends on China."

The world can learn from how Somaliland overcame militias 
Michael Rubin | Washington Examiner

After weeks of failed talks following an election widely believed to be fraudulent, the newly-elected President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Felix Tshisekedi, has been urged to enter a power-sharing agreement with his predecessor, Joseph Kabila.

If Trump truly wants to end America’s endless wars abroad, he should embrace US allies, bolster democracies, and recognize that even at the height of its greatness, America has never truly gone it alone. Finish here.

AEI’s Marc Thiessen debated Buck Sexton on the correct US military strategy in the Middle East and the future of US national security. The two discussed whether a full withdrawal is in the United States’ best interest and whether our lengthy engagement with ISIS has successfully deterred future attacks. Watch the debate here.

Out of Africa: Why has Somaliland succeeded where Iraqi Kurdistan has failed? 
Michael Rubin | 1001 Iraqi Thoughts 

Trump’s Taliban dealing is already destabilizing Africa 
Michael Rubin | Washington Examiner 

• AEI’s Michael Rubin: The US and UN are repeating Iraq-style mistakes in Somalia
  

US Africa policy cannot afford to ignore Somaliland 
Michael Rubin | The National Interest 

Somaliland – Key to Winning America's Longest War
By Michael Rubin, RealClearDefense: “ Gen. Thomas Waldhauser, AFRICOM commander, told the Senate Armed Services Committee that U.S. airstrikes alone would not defeat al-Shabaab. Instead, he said, local forces need to "step up." He is right, so it is especially unfortunate that when local forces step up to rebuff al-Shabaab, AFRICOM ignores them.

Europe: Trying to Legitimize Iran's Regime  by Giulio Meotti

What Would De Gaulle Do?  Editorial of The New York Sun | March 6, 2019
https://www.nysun.com/editorials/what-would-de-gaulle-do/90598/
What in the world is Charles de Gaulle going to think when he gets ahold of the latest op-ed piece from Emmanuel Macron? We understand that De Gaulle, the founding father of the Fifth Republic, has been dead for nigh fifty years. A lucky thing for him, too, given the way things are going in the land to which he addressed his immortal "Call to Honor."
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Theresa May’s Lucky Defeat
Theodore Dalrymple, City Journal
Theresa May’s crushing defeat in the House of Commons yesterday over her plan for Britain to leave the European Union was actually a great victory for her, provided that you make a simple assumption: that she and her colleagues never wanted Britain to leave the EU in the first place. A majority of the British legislature is, and always was, opposed to Brexit. Those legislators who agitated most vociferously for it declined, when the time came, to carry out the policy, leaving it to a woman, already well known for her political maladroitness. Read more here....

Middle Eastern Communities Can Resist Sectarianism
Sectarian violence in the Middle East has been destructive, but it is still the exception rather than the norm. Communities are generally resilient to the worst sectarian impulses. Lessons from Lebanon, Bahrain, Syria, and Iraq show that there are a range of actions that can curb sectarianism. Read more »

NATIONAL INTEREST

Unrest in France: No End in Sight

The Administration Must Compete with Russia and China in Venezuela

Get China and Russia Out of Venezuela - and the Western Hemisphere by Gordon G. Chang