EMERGING THREATS U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY - CounterStrikeMedia

TEAM TRUMP BUSTS THROUGH INF WALL, PUTS XI AND PUTIN ON NOTICE & CHINA PURSUES REGIONAL WAR AGAINST THE US IN THE CARIBBEAN

12/13/2019

Could Turkey bar US military from Incirlik air base?
Faced with the resurging threat of sanctions in the US Congress, Ankara has brandished another trump card, warning that the US military could lose access to two key bases in Turkey.

US Busts INF Wall With Ballistic Missile, Puts Putin & Xi On Notice
The Pentagon’s second test of a previously-banned missile went as planned today, with the US upping its game from a cruise missile to a ballistic missile.

KURDS FEAR CONSTITUTIONAL REVIEW

12/8/2019

ASIA TIMES

MODI MOVES AGAINST GHANDI'S PARTY

12/7/2019

Cleo Paskal, non-resident senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, recounts the history of when millions fled India to g0 to Pakistan & Bangladesh. The question of “who is Indian, and how long has s/he been in India?” has been going on for decades and become important. Many economic migrants into India; Supreme Court demanded a national registration of citizens, esp far only in Assam. Note that a lot of Hindus had fled Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Afghanistan out of fear, yet weren’t easily accepted as Indian. However, if you arrive before December 2014 and you’re Buddhist, Christian, Hindu or Jain, we’ll accept you as religious refugees. It's all very messy. You needed to have arrived before March 1971 in order to _____. Left-wingers, Muslims and Assamese, all are unhappy; the Assamese, with the 20-30% population increase in the last decades.
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/12/16/21024306/india-protests-muslim-citizenship-amendment-bill

INDIA'S ECONOMY GOES DOWN

India: Leaders Meet in Washington. The second 2+2 meeting between leaders from Indian and the United States concluded late Wednesday. The leaders discussed several topics to include increasing defense cooperation and trade. "Our defense relationship is strong, and since the establishment of the 2+2 ministerial last year, it continues to improve," Secretary of Defense Mark Esper said. U.S. Department of Defense Hindustan Times MarketWatch

India: Protests Continue to Sweep the Country. Protests over the new citizenship law continued through India on Thursday. The government has shutdown the internet, blocked roads, and arrested hundreds to include Ramachandra Guha, a prominent critic of the law and biographer of Gandhi. “Our protest is totally nonviolent,’’ Guha said to reporters. “See what is happening. You see we are totally peaceful. Did you see any violence?’’ Three people have been killed during protests so far.
The New York Times

SUDAN'S AND ALGERIA'S ABORTIVE ARAB SPRING CONTINUES & LATIN AMERICA STAGNATES AGAIN

11/28/2019

Algeria’s de facto ruler, Gen. Ahmed Gaïd Salah, who this year managed the ouster of one president and the ascent of another amid deep civil unrest, died on Monday, according to the state news agency and Algerian press reports. – New York Times

Algeria: New president, old regime
Protesters in Algeria rejected the presidential election and its victor, Abdelmadjid Tebboune.

Algeria swears in new president, names new prime minister
Algeria swore in former Prime Minister Abdelmadjid Tebboune as its new president on Thursday, a week after an election marked by low-turnout and mass protests. The newly sworn-in president named Foreign Minister Sabri Boukadoum as interim prime minister and Housing Minister Kamel Beljoud as interior minister. They respectively replace Noureddine Bedoui and Salah Eddine Dahmoune, both of whom were highly unpopular with protesters. Tebboune said remaining ministers would keep assuming their responsibilities in a caretaker capacity.
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Algeria certifies presidential election results
Algeria’s constitutional council confirmed Monday that former Prime Minister Abdelmadjid Tebboune won last week's presidential election with 58% of the vote. Tebboune will be sworn in on Thursday. The election was held despite widespread public opposition that led to a low 33% turnout as monthslong protests demand an overhaul of the ruling class.
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dailymail.co.uk

Protesters disrupt Algeria’s presidential elections
Algeria held its presidential election on Thursday amid widespread public opposition to the vote. Thousands of people rallied in the capital Algiers and other cities, destroying polling stations and ballot boxes. Turnout was just over 33% two hours before polls closed, according to officials. Protesters have boycotted the election they see as a tool for ruling elites to keep their hold on the country. All five candidates in the elections are either supporters of former President Abdelaziz Bouteflika or have served under him. No results have yet been announced.
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reuters.co

Algeria answers calls for fundamental change with old guard candidates
Turnout to Algeria’s elections could be as low as 10%, and any winner is likely to be weak, unable to impose policy without compromise and negotiation.

Algeria's presidential election no one wants
After hounding longtime dictator Abdelaziz Bouteflika from office, protesters are now campaigning to stop the flawed process to replace him.

Ex-prime ministers go on trial in Algeria ahead of presidential election
The trial of two former Algerian prime ministers began on Wednesday ahead of next week's presidential election. Ahmed Ouyahia and Abdelmalek Sellal appeared in court in Algiers. Their trial is the first since authorities launched a crackdown on corruption targeting several former officials and well-connected businessmen following President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s resignation in April. Weekly anti-regime demonstrations continue, with Algerians demanding that the Dec. 12 presidential elections be delayed until more of the ruling elite steps down.
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apnews.com

Sudan: Government Fulfills Two Demands. Sudan announced Friday that it has satisfied two demands made by pro-democracy protesters. The government overturned a moral policing law that criminalized some women’s clothing and the consumption of alcohol. It also disbanded the party of former President Omar al-Bashir who ruled the country for three decades. Al-Bashir was overthrown as president in April and is currently on trial for corruption and money laundering with a verdict expected by December 14. Egypt Independent TIME

A new report says South Sudan’s National Security Service has recruited a force of 10,000 fighters in President Salva Kiir’s ethnic stronghold, in apparent breach of the terms of the country’s peace deal. – Associated Press

Samuel Ramani writes: Through a synthesis of targeted diplomatic outreach, economic and security incentives, and soft-power-building efforts, Russia has preserved its leverage in Sudan during a year of severe political turmoil. Due to Sudan’s strategic location on the Red Sea and long history of aligning with Russia on diplomatic crises ranging from the annexation of Crimea to the Syrian civil war, Russia has a vested interest in the country’s political future and will try to shape the course of its transition to democracy in the months to come. – Middle East Institute

"In 60 Seconds" video, Roger Noriega assesses the threat democracy faces in the region and concludes that Latin America's leftists want power by any means necessary. Watch it here.

Following the withdrawal of police support for Bolivian President Evo Morales, demonstrations have swept the country. In a National Review op-ed, Ryan Berg writes that while many in Bolivia defend Morales' socialist success, Morales leaves a dismal legacy of beaten and battered democratic institutions. Read more here.

As protests in Chile continue to engulf the country, Ryan Berg and Andrés Martínez-Fernández took to the pages of The Hill to explain that with Chile being one of the most politically stable and prosperous countries in Latin America, Chileans would be wise to avoid sweeping changes to the country’s successful political and economic model in its upcoming constitutional convention. Continue here.

SUICIDE-MURDER PACT ROCKS TURKISH POLITICAL ECONOMY

11/26/2019

Copycat murder-suicides distress Turkey
Three separate Turkish families committed suicide by taking cyanide in the first two weeks of November, and despite the government's denials, economic hardship seemed to play a key role in all three cases that shook the country.

Russia, Turkey plugging away at Syria's northeast, Idlib
Amid complications with Turkey, Russia claims it stays the course in Syria.

HOW THE TURKS CLOSE RANKS AROUND ERDOGAN, THE PERSIANS RISE AGAINST THE REGIME & CHINA'S NUCLEAR REVOLUTION

11/23/2019

Tehran and the Restive Iraqis
By Dr. Doron Itzchakov, December 3, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: With many Iraqis (including Shiites) blaming Tehran for the social restiveness engulfing their country, Iranian policymakers fear the weakening of Tehran’s grip on its neighbor.
Continue to full article ->

SUNNI - SHIA RIVALRY

How do you solve a problem like Ankara?
(Defense One) The question is not: “Can we live with a rogue Turkey?” but: “Do we have a choice?” said one U.S. official.

Amos Harel and Yaniv Kubovich write: Less than two weeks after Iran’s protest wave began, Western and Israeli intelligence agencies believe that the regime in Tehran is on the verge of containing it. The violence, which is thought to have taken around 300 lives, is considered the strongest uprising in Iran since the Islamic Revolution brought the current regime to power in 1979. Israeli intelligence officials believe that the authorities have combined brutality and sophistication to stifle the unrest. – Haaretz

Farzin Nadimi writes: As seen in the Iranian-attributed rocket attack against north Israel on November 20, the regime seems to be hardening its resolve to hit back at those countries it believes are threatening its regional ambitions and hold on power. September’s highly successful, largely unanswered attack on Saudi Aramco facilities gave the IRGC and conservative leadership a similar jolt of confidence. Accordingly, one can expect Tehran to embark on its next significant regional adventure soon. And given the serious challenges it faces at home, the regime may be less concerned about avoiding direct confrontation with the United States or Israel this time around. – Washington Institute

China's Nuclear Revolution
From The Economist: “It is developing new bombs, new missiles and new ways of launching them."

THE SHAPE OF TURKEY'S AMBITION

US officials meet with Libyan warlord

THE ROAD TOWARD GREATER EURASIA

Turkey's defense industry sees rise of 'the president’s men'
Decision-making power in Turkey's defense industry is shifting from the military to businessmen close to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Erdoğan’s Ottoman Fantasies
Fr. Mario Alexis Portella
British journalist Robert Fisk once stated, “The story of the Armenian genocide is one of almost unrelieved horror at the hands of Turkish soldiers and policemen who enthusiastically carried out their government’s orders to exterminate a race of Christian people in the Middle East.” The extermination of one and a half million Armenian Christians during […]Read More

Libido Diminuendi and the City of Man
Anthony Esolen
“The glorious City of God is my theme in this work,” says Augustine in the opening of his masterpiece by that name, a masterpiece of theological historiography, for the pagan Romans had cried out, “The Christians have come into our inheritance!” Therefore, they said, the gods had abandoned the old and venerable city—queen of the […]

Pence after meeting with Kurds: 'They know the American people are with them'
(Washington Examiner) Besides bringing Thanksgiving cheer to American soldiers, Pence consulted with Iraqi and Kurdish officials in the wake of violent demonstrations in Iraq and the withdrawal of U.S. troops from northern Syria.

US resumes more robust counter-ISIS ops in Syria
(Military Times) Following a brief hiatus, the U.S.-led coalition to defeat the Islamic State said it started launching large-scale operations to combat Islamic State militants in Syria once more amid increased danger from Daesh attacks.

WHY THE AMERICAN WAY OF WAR IS OVER & HOW RUSSIA SEES THE WORLD AFTER THE FALL OF THE BERLIN WALL

11/23/2019

In future wars, the US military will have nowhere to hide
Michael Beckley | Foreign Policy

Secretary of Defense Esper, don’t make Gates’ mistakes with Night Court
Mackenzie Eaglen | Breaking Defense

The Great Saudi-Iranian Proxy Gameby Buddhika Jayamaha, Kevin S. Petit, Jahara Matisek, William Reno, Matthew A. Rose and Molly Jahn
Middle East Quarterly
Fall 2019 (view PDF)
https://www.meforum.org/59294/the-great-saudi-iranian-proxy-game

Towards A Bipartisan Iran Protest Policy Playbook

New DIA Report Underscores Iranian Cruise Missile Threa

Artificial intelligence, Big Data, and robotics could revolutionize how wars of the future will be avoided, fought, and won. Yet, there is more to great-power competition than just new technologies, argues Mackenzie Eaglen in a new RealClearDefense op-ed. It is time for the US to draft a competition road map for the Defense Department, US government, and nation. Read more here.

For more than two centuries, the US has had the luxury of fighting its wars on offshore territories, with US bases on foreign soil facing few military threats. In a new Foreign Policy op-ed, Michael Beckley writes that in future wars, new technologies will enable rivals such as Russia and China to destroy US bases and logistics networks — including those on the homeland. Finish here.

Following Secretary of Defense Mark Esper’s firing of Navy Secretary Richard Spencer, Gary Schmitt took to the pages of the Bulwark to discuss the real issue: President Trump's involvement in the pardoning of two soldiers. Schmitt analyzes presidential pardoning powers and concludes that if the president continues to ignore the military's system for determining measures to ensure justice, it is a recipe for further abuse and hazard to the rule of law itself. Continue here.

The F-35 has been a troubled program, technically and financially. However, it remains one of the few bullets available and one our potential adversaries worry about quite a bit, writes Giselle Donnelly in a new AEIdeas blog. It is past time to stop worrying and learn to love the F-35. Learn more here.

Even before Donald Trump was facing impeachment over his dealings with Ukraine, his indifference toward that country's fate was a punch line in Russia. In an Atlantic article, Leon Aron discusses the genre of dark political jokes in both the Soviet Union and Russia to show how they offer a glimpse into how Russians see their leaders and their country's relationship with the world. Learn more here.

One of the paradoxes of transatlantic relations is that the US has consistently encouraged Europeans to do more in defense and security. Yet, whenever Europeans unveiled new initiatives, they were met with criticism from America. In an AEIdeas blog, Dalibor Rohac argues that faced with numerous threats, the earlier the EU and the United States start focusing on defending liberal democracies, the better the prospects of the alliance in the 21st century. Read here.

Thirty years after the Cold War ended, there is still a transatlantic divide over why and how the West defeated the Soviet Union. In a Bloomberg op-ed, Hal Brands explains that while both the US and Europe are partially right, this argument has implications for great-power competition and alliance strategy toward Russia and China today. Finish here.

Three decades after the fall of the Berlin Wall, the number of people living in democracies has nearly doubled. This dramatic expansion of human freedom was unleashed by the collapse of socialism and the expansion of democratic capitalism, explains Marc Thiessen in a Fox op-ed. Yet, over 50 percent of young Americans think that socialism would be a good thing for the country. Thiessen argues that it is time that the evils of socialism be taught to young people. Read more here.

Self-Delusion and Forgetting History in Afghanistan
By Paul Behringer & Nathaniel L. Moir, RealClearDefense: "The fact that the war in Afghanistan has not been going well, despite assurances by military and civilian officials over a decade, is not new information."

Russia’s Eastern Mediterranean Strategy--
Implications for the United States and Israel
By Douglas J. Feith & Shaul Chorev, National Institute for Public Policy: For its decisive military support to Assad, Russia has been rewarded with access in Syria and control over upgraded military bases – the Tartus naval base and the Khmeimim air base. From those bases it can project power into the Middle East, the Balkans and farther west along the Mediterranean. In conflict, Russia is positioned to execute an area-denial strategy against the United States."

EUROPE: DEAD ALREADY, ALGERIA BEGINS ELECTION CYCLE AND ETHIOPIA TRIES TO BEGIN ANEW

11/18/2019

Europe and Its Enemies
Will the challenge of new adversaries galvanize the Continent?

Ethiopia: Ruling Coalition Agrees to Single Party System. The ruling coalition in Ethiopia announced on Thursday the merger of three out of four ethinc-based political parties in an effort to unite the country. The new party will be called the Prosperity Party. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said, “The unanimous decision passed today to merge the Party is a crucial step in harnessing our energy to work toward a shared vision. Prosperity Party is committed to strengthening & applying a true Federal system which recognizes the diversity and contributions of all Ethiopians.” Reuters

Algeria: Protests Ramp Up as Election Nears. Hundreds of Algerians on Thursday conducted anti-regime protests in anticipation of next month’s presidential election. The protests are calling upon the ruling party to step down before elections are held. Protests in Algeria began in February, leading to the April resignation of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika. Presidential elections are scheduled for December 12. Reuters

IRAN & TURKEY GOES ON OFFENSE TO SUSTAIN UNITY FOR WAR: US NEEDS INTERAGENCY PROCESS

11/10/2019

Radicalizing in the Name of Islam by Johanna Markind
Middle East Quarterly
Fall 2019 (view PDF)
https://www.meforum.org/59292/johanna-markind-radicalizing-in-name-of-islam

Iran: Hard Times for Ayatollahs
Thanks to Trump, the Mullahs Are Going Bankrupt

Tony Badran: Lebanon Protests Fueled by "Endemic Corruption" of Political Class
Middle East Forum Radio
November 27, 2019
https://www.meforum.org/59979/tony-badran-on-lebanon-protests

Susanna V. Blume and Molly Parrish write: This paper provides a review of the Department of Defense’s three core decisionmaking processes, what is working in them, what is not, and some recommendations for how to make them deliver better outcomes for the U.S. military and for the American people. These recommendations would improve the way DoD makes the decisions that size and shape the future Joint Force. By extension, they would help ensure that the U.S. military can compete effectively with China, with specific emphasis on sustaining and enhancing U.S. military technological advantage. – Center for a New American Security

Bulent Aliriza writes: Without an effective interagency process to implement his verbal agreements with Erdogan, Trump’s ability to impose direction on the U.S.-Turkey relationship is further constrained by his current problems in Congress. – Center for Strategic & International Studies

Seth J. Frantzman writes: US policy has been a mix of guns and butter in Iraq since the invasion of 2003, offering military training and arms and trying to butter up some officials that the US thought would be its champions in Baghdad. But at every turn an Iranian octopus was lurking, outplaying the ham-handed American attempts to exert influence in Baghdad, even maneuvering Iranian-backed candidates into office with US backing, tricking Washington to make the US think it had “won.” Meanwhile Iran played the long game. – Jerusalem Post

Turkey’s fight against IS riddled with black holes
Ankara may boast about how many Islamic State members it has captured, but its handling of IS suspects on the ground, especially in deportation centers, speaks of a slipshod attitude to the problem

Seth J. Frantzman writes: In war, words matter and the videos depicting Turkish-backed groups vowing to kill and pillage, while those opposing them have accused them of being linked to ISIS, has inflamed tensions online between supporters of both sides. The videos and allegations have hardened attitudes on the ground as thousands fled and fear to return to their homes. – Jerusalem Post

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-this-elusive-jihadist-commander-in-gaza-is-challenging-both-hamas-and-israel-1.8071140
●   https://www.timesofisrael.com/palestinian-elections-are-looking-likely-and-may-be-spectacularly-bad-for-abbas/
●   https://www.voanews.com/middle-east/analyst-israel-closely-watching-lebanon-protests https://w
●   https://www.timesofisrael.com/after-israeli-plea-us-cutting-military-aid-to-lebanon-report/
● ww.timesofisrael.com/russia-reportedly-in-possession-of-advanced-israeli-interceptor-missile/

Iran Stepped in to Save Pro-Tehran Government in Baghdad

THE LONG WAR & THE FALL OF ANOTHER WAR AGAINST A HAMILTONIAN PRESIDENCY

11/10/2019

Following two deadly ISIS militant attacks in West Africa last week, Katherine Zimmerman took to the AEIdeas blog to discuss how al Qaeda and the Islamic State are strengthening in western Africa's Sahel region. Zimmerman argues that US leaders are overlooking the Sahel and missing the threat of the global Salafi-jihadi movement. The solution is not a repeat of US military deployments to Iraq, Syria, or Afghanistan. Rather, what's needed is a civilian-led effort that combines targeted foreign assistance with diplomacy to address the multitude of local conflicts that give Salafi-jihadi groups their opening to expand into communities. Otherwise, expect terror attacks to start coming out of Africa — and soon. Read here.

The fall of the other wall
With the fall of the Berlin Wall 30 years ago this week, ties between Western and Eastern Europe were renewed. In the same period, another wall crumbled — between the Middle East and the former Soviet states. And yet, to this day, U.S. national security institutions continue to view these two regions through a Cold War lens, separating how they are handled despite their contiguous geography and how much they influence each other. This approach needs to change; integrating research and policy toward the Middle East and the bordering states of the former Soviet Union would improve analytical understanding in both regions and help identify new policy options.
Read article

HOW JOHNSON WILL WIN BREXIT

11/10/2019

Mr. Machiavelli Headed For Big Win in BritainPrime Minister Johnson Emerges as a Clown, Schemer, and Bold Gambler
By CONRAD BLACK, Special to the Sun | November 8, 2019
https://www.nysun.com/foreign/mr-machiavelli-is-headed-for-big-win-in-britain/90898/

Our Crisis Today Lies In Attacks on the Constitution Itself
By JENNIFER BRACERAS, Special to the Sun | November 8, 2019
https://www.nysun.com/national/our-crisis-today-lies-in-attacks-on/90899/

THE STATUS OF SYRIA AFTER THE PULL OUT & TURKEY'S WAR AGAINST THE WEST

11/10/2019

Erdogan Labors to Explain Baghdadi and Family

Turkey: Erdogan's Campaign against the West by Giulio Meotti

Can Trump, Erdogan pick up the pieces in Syria?
US President Donald Trump and his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, meet in Washington on Nov. 13. For the sake of US-Turkish relations, or what remains of them, they need a "good meeting." Trump refers to Erdogan as his “friend” and a “hell of a leader.” The stakes are high. If bilateral ties worsen, the winner is Russian President Vladimir Putin and the losers are the Syrian Kurds, who are still counting on US influence with Ankara.
Time to talk

Both Trump and Erdogan operate by summit and personal connections. They know and like each other. Their bureaucracies and staff are mostly background noise until the two presidents meet or talk. Only then do things happen, for better or worse, depending on your perspective.

There is some urgency to this summit. US-Turkey relations, which have been bad for a while, are a train wreck after widespread criticism that Trump "betrayed" the Syrian Kurds by announcing a withdrawal of US forces from Syria on Oct. 6. Three days later, Turkey invaded Syria in a move it dubbed "Operation Peace Spring" to wipe out the Kurdish "terrorists" — who just happen be Washington’s on-the-ground partners against the Islamic State.

The United States and Turkey, NATO allies, don’t and won’t agree on the Syrian Kurds — specifically, the Kurdistan Democratic Union (PYD) and the People’s Protection Units (YPG) — which make up the bulk of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The United States successfully partnered with the SDF against IS in Syria. Erdogan considers the PYD/YPG to be the Syrian branch of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which Turkey and the US both have labeled a terrorist group. Washington sees shades of grey between the YPG/PYD and the Turkey-based PKK. For Erdogan, the PYD/YPG/PKK is equivalent to or worse than IS.

The Kurds have a reservoir of good will among the US military, who have worked with them in the battle against extremists, and with key members of Congress. Meanwhile, US-Turkey relations have sunk over differences in Syria, Ankara’s ties to Moscow and Turkey’s treatment of journalists and activists.
Trump: “They’re no angels”

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SOMALIA HEATS UP FOR AFRICOM & WHAT DEFINES LEGITIMACY IN THE MIDDLE EAST, drones in libya

11/5/2019

State Department policy is fueling Al-Shabaab resurgence
Michael Rubin | The National Interest

RUSSIA DOMINATES AFRICA

Pentagon eyes Africa drawdown as first step in global troop shift

Pentagon examining a reduction of the US footprint in West Africa
(Military Times) The Pentagon is considering significantly cutting back its U.S. presence in West Africa, according to a new report.

The border region of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger lies at the centre of a jihadist revolt spreading along the Sahara’s southern rim. […]Soldiers peering through night-vision goggles attached to their helmets man the camp perimeter, assault rifles primed. Such scenes are everyday for troops from France’s 4,500-strong Barkhane mission when they are deployed in the field. – Agency France-Presse
South Sudan is recalling its ambassador to the United States, an adviser to the president told the Associated Press on Thursday. – Associated Press

“Piracy is a business,” says John Steed of the Hostage Support Partnership. “And the investors are still putting money in the business.” He adds, “As piracy is reduced in East Africa, piracy in West Africa and Southeast Asia has increased.” It feeds off the enormous amount of global ship traffic, with 11 billion tons shipped internationally in 2018. – Bloomberg

Calls for reform of an African currency bloc, which has its roots in French colonial rule, could prove disruptive for foreign investors, analysts have suggested. – CNBC

The use of lethal drones was once an area dominated by the US, but has spread rapidly, drawing in new conflicts and causing more civilian casualties as warfare is revolutionised. The principal battleground is Libya, where both sides in the ongoing civil war are trying to gain air superiority with cheap Chinese-made craft run by the United Arab Emirates on one side, and equally inexpensive Turkish-made drones on the other. – The Guardian

Caliph Abu Unknown: Succession and Legitimacy in the Islamic State by Haroro J. Ingram and Craig Whiteside

Reviewing Nigeria's 20 Years Of Democracy
quoting Larry Diamond via This Day Live
Kayode Fayemi gives a incisive insight into Nigeria’s 20 years of democratic journey in a speech delivered at a meeting in Washington DC, the United States, and titled: “Twenty Years of Democratization in Nigeria: Successes and Challenges”

WHY AFRICA MATTERS FOR THE LONG WAR

What defines legitimacy in the Middle East and North Africa?
Michael Rubin | AEI Press

AFRICOM commander heads to Somalia as airstrikes against violent extremists rise
(Military Times) U.S. Africa Command commander Army Gen. Stephen Townsend is in Somalia to visit U.S. troops and other global leaders — a move that comes amid a slight uptick in airstrikes against violent extremists in Somalia this year

Why is the Army in Africa in the first place?
(Defense News) Maj. Gen. Roget Cloutier, head of U.S. Army Africa, lays out the reasoning for an African presence.

MARXISM OWNS CHILE: THE SOURCE OF DISRUPTION IS IDEOLOGICAL

11/4/2019

HOW THE MULLAH'S LOST THEIR GRIP, US DEPLOYS BOMBERS ABROAD TO MATCH RUSSIA & GREAT POWER RIVALRY CONTINUES IN EURASIA

11/3/2019

In Middle East: Pull Down Facades
by Amir Taheri •

Revolt against Iran's 'System' in Iraq and Lebanon by Jonathan Spyer
The Jerusalem Post
October 31, 2019
https://www.meforum.org/59724/revolt-against-irans-system-in-iraq-and-lebano

MEI’s Alex Vatanka: Iran’s IRGC has long kept Khamenei in power

Azhar Al-Rubaie writes: It appears that the Iraqi government remains perplexed by how to deal with future demonstrations staged by restless masses, who remain furious with the widespread corruption they face in their daily lives. If Iraqi leadership hopes to put an end to future demonstrations, they cannot continue to rely on violence. Instead, Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi must take immediate action through serious reforms and the formation of an impartial government—one where members are held accountable to the Iraqi people. – Washington Institute

Anthony H. Cordesman writes: The Burke Chair at CSIS is circulating a new working paper that updates its assessments of the cost of the Afghan and Iraq/Syria Wars, and highlights how these costs have been cut through major changes in the nature of U.S. ground forces and air commitments. It also highlights the affordability and present size of U.S. military bases and commitments overseas. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Michael Peck writes: But Russian bombers based on Philippines airfields, ranging far over the Pacific to give the United States nightmares? That prospect is distant at best and dim at worst. But it is not unheard of for nations to switch partners. A prime example is Egypt, a major recipient of Soviet weapons and advisers during the Cold War, but which is now an American client. India relied on Russian arms for years, but is now buying American equipment, while once-staunch U.S. ally Turkey is buying Russian anti-aircraft missiles. – National Interest

B-1B Lancers have returned stateside after a short trip to Saudi Arabia’s Prince Sultan Air Base. The Air Force on Monday said the deployment was meant to flex bomber muscle for a rapid deployment scenario and to “promote regional security.” – Military.com

Elsa Kania and Samuel Bendett write: Sino-Russian relations have been adapting to an era of great-power rivalry. […]Today, like-minded democracies must recognise the threats from advances in and the diffusion of technologies that can be used to empower autocratic regimes. For that reason, it will be vital to mount a more unified response to promulgate norms for the use of next-generation technologies, particularly AI and biotech. – Real Clear Defense

HOW INDIA STARTS THE NEXT ASIAN CRISIS & STRONGER WOMEN AID STRONGER NATIONS

11/1/2019

Might India Start the Next South Asia Crisis? by Toby Dalton and Gaurav Kalwani

How to Thwart Political Violence Targeting Women to Stabilize Societies by Roudabeh Kishi and Rebecca Turkington

BAGHDADI GONE BUT ISLAMIC STATE HOLDS CONTINENTAL AFRICA, BERUIT & BAGHDAD ERUPT: WHAT WILL IRAN DO

10/27/2019

http://jcpa.org/iraqis-take-to-the-streets-to-oppose-irans-involvement-in-their-country/
●   https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/iraq-violence-shows-folly-of-placing-hope-in-iran-reform
●   https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/iraqi-protests-bring-baghdad-to-the-tipping-point
●   https://nationalinterest.org/blog/middle-east-watch/abu-bakr-al-baghdadi-dead-his-legacy-lives-91536
●   https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-10-24/as-turkey-and-russia-deal-iran-is-odd-man-out

With or without Baghdadi, Salafi-jihadis are winning the governance game
Emily Estelle | AEIdeas
Eliminating key leaders such as Baghdadi is important, but a predominantly military approach will continue to fail without improving the circumstances of the communities on which Salafi-jihadi groups prey.

Iran's Model: Smash the Protests in Lebanon and Iraq by Seth Frantzman
The Jerusalem Post
October 29, 2019
https://www.meforum.org/59707/iran-model-smash-the-protests-in-lebanon-and-iraq

Revolt against Iran's 'System' in Iraq and Lebanon by Jonathan Spyer
The Jerusalem Post
October 31, 2019
https://www.meforum.org/59724/revolt-against-irans-system-in-iraq-and-lebanon

Lebanon is a basket case run by a terror group: don’t fund it
Tony Badran -- Al Arabiya
After two weeks of popular protests in Lebanon against the country’s corrupt political class, Lebanese prime minister Saad Hariri has handed his resignation. While some see this development as a victory for the protesters, such assessments miss the mark. The same political barons will now consult to form a new government, a process in which Iran’s arm in Lebanon, Hezbollah, has final say. Far from signaling a change in the system, the episode will have marked its regeneration. Read More

Iraqi Protesters Vent Anger at Iran-Backed Militias
David Adesnik and Nicholas Wernert — FDD Policy Brief
Iraqi protesters are lashing out at the Iran-backed militias who sought to crush the anti-government uprisings that have roiled Iraq since early October. The protesters’ slogans and choice of targets linked to the militias demonstrate the extent to which anti-Iran sentiment now animates the protest movement. Iraqis have taken to the streets to protest corruption, unemployment, and a lack of public services. Read more

After Baghdadi, Iran Should Be Trump's Next Priority by Con Coughlin

Dead Caliph, Eternal Jihad by Raymond Ibrahim
FrontPage Magazine
October 29, 2019
https://www.meforum.org/59715/dead-caliph-eternal-jihad

 Africa File

The current US approach to terror is a recipe for forever war
Katherine Zimmerman | Defense One

Lebanese prime minister resigns amid mass protests
Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned on Tuesday after almost two weeks of unprecedented nationwide anti-government protests. “We have reached a deadlock and we need a shock in order to brave through the crisis,” Hariri said in a televised speech. Hundreds of thousands of people have been protesting across the country since Oct. 17 against corruption and the economic crisis.
Hariri’s resignation came hours after men armed with pipes and sticks attacked peaceful demonstrators in Beirut. Supporters of the country’s main Shiite groups, Amal and Hezbollah, beat protesters and burned down their tents.
Read More
aljazeera.com

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi killed himself during raid, U.S. says

Overnight Attack that Killed Al-Baghdadi Raises Many Questions by Seth Frantzman
The Jerusalem Post
October 27, 2019
https://www.meforum.org/59692/attack-that-killed-baghdadi-raises-questions

Turkey and China Tie Themselves in Knots Over Syria and Xinjiang

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-10-22/how-lebanon-s-protests-are-connected-to-public-debt
●   https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-19/how-lebanon-s-unrest-is-both-new-and-more-of-the-same-quicktake
●   https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/10/22/iran-losing-middle-east-iraq-lebanon-protests-bad-governance/
●   https://www.mei.edu/blog/hezbollahs-counterrevolution
● https://news.yahoo.com/lebanons-hezbollah-under-rare-street-pressure-114903448.html

Analysis
The US has a partner in eastern Syria — provided it has the will
The Trump administration inherited a number of complex problems in the Syrian file from its predecessors in the White House. In dealing with the Syrian crisis, the Obama administration had three main priorities: not disturbing Iran in Syria during the process of nuclear negotiations, working with Russia toward a ceasefire in various parts of Syria (without trusting that Russia could deliver or should have the upper hand), and, most importantly, carrying out a limited military intervention in the northeast to defeat ISIS — an issue it considered separately from the Syrian crisis.
Read article

Islamic State confirms Baghdadi’s death, names new ‘Emir of the Faithful’
The Islamic State’s latest spokesman, a jihadist known as Abu Hamza al-Qurayshi, released a statement yesterday confirming Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s death in an American raid and naming a new emir for the group. Baghdadi’s successor is a figure known as Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi.

THE KURDISH INITIATIVE INVITES ASSAD & RUSSIA INTO THE BLOOD SANDS

10/27/2019

Turkey Orders Qatar to 'Weed Out' Journalists Critical of Syria Invasion by Sam Westrop
The Jerusalem Post
November 4, 2019
https://www.meforum.org/59841/turkey-orders-qatar-to-weed-out-journalist

How Putin Outfoxed Trump, Pence and Erdogan by Malcolm Lowe

Amb. W. Robert Pearson: Sooner or Later, Putin Will Force Turkey out of Syria
Middle East Forum Radio
October 29, 2019
https://www.meforum.org/59702/amb-w-robert-pearson-on-turkey

A Strategic View of the Turkish Campaign Against the Kurds
By Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen, October 31, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: In light of recent regional events in general and the Turkish invasion of Syria in particular, Israel needs to reconsider the underlying strategic rationale not only of its covert activities in neighboring countries but also its more overt conduct. Otherwise it could find itself, in case of war with the northern axis (Hezbollah, Iran, and Syria), winning battles but having trouble ending the campaign with a strategic achievement.
Continue to full article ->

THE IDF REVEALS ITS 5 YEAR PLAN

10/27/2019

The IDF released its new five-year plan of operations on Thursday, with its chief of staff warning, “The situation is fragile in the north and south — and may deteriorate into a confrontation.” – Algemeiner

Israel’s northern border – in particular Iranian-led activity – is the main security challenge the country faces, IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Aviv Kochavi said Thursday. – Ynet

A privately owned, unidentified Challenger 604 jet departed from Ben-Gurion International Airport, landing first in the Jordanian capital of Amman and then in the Saudi Arabian capital of Riyadh on Tuesday evening, causing many to question which Israeli decided to pay the Saudis a visit. […]Maariv reporter Yossi Melman posited in a tweet that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu or Mossad chief Yossi Cohen may have been on the flight. – Jerusalem Post

MEXICO: THE FAILED STATE

10/27/2019

ASIA TIMES

Latin America Emerges as a Russian Theater of Operations
By Stephen Blank, Eurasia Daily Monitor: "It has only recently become clear to analysts in the United States that Russia is playing a big role in Latin America to destabilize Washington’s alliance system and threaten U.S. interests"

How the Sinaloa Cartel Clobbered Mexico's Army
By Ted Galen Carpenter, The American Conservative: "While American media outlets have been trashing the Trump administration over its abandonment of America's “noble Kurdish allies” in Syria, they have paid little attention to an extraordinary and alarming development in Mexico. This week, criminals actually declared open season on the Mexican government—and won."

THE NEXT AGENT ORANGE: THE BURN-PITS OF AFGHANISTAN

10/24/2019

The Military's Next Agent Orange
By Kelly Kennedy, The War Horse: "... Meanwhile, hundreds of thousands of service members back from Iraq and Afghanistan are developing lung diseases and ailments that all link back to the same environmental hazard that soldiers came forward about 11 years ago: burn pits."

U.S. TROOPS CAN'T GO TO IRAQI KURDISTAN, NETANYAHU FAILS & LEBANON BURNS

10/22/2019

Turkey-Backed Jihadists in Syria Kidnap, Murder, and Desecrate by Seth Frantzman
The Jerusalem Post
October 24, 2019
https://www.meforum.org/59660/turkey-backed-jihadists-in-syria

The U.S. Is Losing the War Against Tyranny
By Michael Ledeen & David Wurmser, Washington Examiner: "We are at war, under siege from a global alliance that runs from Pyongyang to Havana and Caracas. At the moment we are losing, having failed to bring down the leaders of our main adversaries: Kim Jong Un in North Korea, Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, and Ali Khamenei in Tehran, despite monster demonstrations in the latter two countries.

How to protect America after the Syria withdrawal
(The Atlantic ) We warned two weeks ago about the danger of abandoning America’s Kurdish-led partner force in Syria, even as thousands of suspected ISIS fighters remain in detention and ISIS attacks steadily increase.

Turkey’s Syria policy could lead to its own destruction
Michael Rubin | The National Interest

Iraqi military says US troops leaving Syria can't stay in Iraq
The Iraqi military said in a statement today that the nearly 1,000 US troops that have withdrawn from northeast Syria do not have permission to stay in the country and can only use Iraqi territory for transit. “All US forces that withdrew from Syria received approval to enter the Kurdistan Region so that they may be transported outside Iraq,” the statement said. “There is no permission granted for these forces to stay inside Iraq.” The statement flatly contradicts the Pentagon, which previously said it would keep some of the troops in western Iraq to support the campaign against the Islamic State and “help defend Iraq.”
Meanwhile President Donald Trump said Monday that he was leaving behind a "small number of troops" at the Syrian border with Jordan to help "secure the oil" in other parts of the country. The decision was made at the request of Jordan and Israel, Trump said. This follows withering bipartisan criticism that the abrupt US withdrawal from northeast Syria is a boon for the Islamic State and other US foes including Iran and Russia.
Read More
reuters.com

Turkish truce ends in Syria
Turkey is closely monitoring Kurdish militants' withdrawal from the border in northeast Syria as the US-brokered 120-hour pause in the Turkish offensive ends at 10 p.m. local time today. The People's Protection Units (YPG) have reportedly abandoned the city centers of Ras al-Ain and Tell Abyad. About 125 trucks carrying YPG militants have already left the area, sources from Turkey's Defense Ministry told the Daily Sabah on Monday, although some militants have reportedly donned civilian clothing and stayed behind in rural areas in the 75 miles between the two cities.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is set to discuss the truce with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi later today as Russia hosts the leaders of Turkey and Iran for trilateral talks on the future of Syria. “In this trip, Mr. Putin and I will tackle the period and will hopefully take the necessary steps,” Erdogan said at a forum in Istanbul on Monday. Putin and Erdogan's talks will focus on "normalizing the situation" in northeast Syria, according to the Kremlin.
Read More
dailysabah.com

Netanyahu fails to create new government
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced Monday evening that he had failed to compose a governing coalition. Two days before Wednesday's deadline, he handed back his mandate to President Reuven Rivlin, who is now expected to give Blue and White party leader Benny Gantz 28 days to try to form a coalition that can win a Knesset majority. If Gantz fails, Rivlin could task the Knesset to propose its own majority-backed candidate. New elections — the third within the span of one year — are also an option.
Read More
jpost.com

Lebanon adopts sweeping reforms amid protests
Lebanon’s Cabinet on Monday approved sweeping economic reforms and passed a state budget for 2020 budget as hundreds of thousands of people continued to protest the economic crisis plaguing the country for a fifth day in a row. Prime Minister Saad Hariri proposed the plan, which calls for cutting the salaries of lawmakers and ministers in half but doesn't include any new taxes. Instead, Hariri announced that the flush banking sector would help reduce the country's soaring deficit while poor families would get millions in subsidies and housing loans. The Cabinet also voted to abolish several state institutions, including the Ministry of Information. But protests that broke out last week across the country amid growing anger over decades of corruption and the government’s mismanagement of the economic crisis are expected to continue today as people have lost trust in the government.
Read More
dailystar.com.lb

BEFORE SYRIA, US ABANDONED AFRICA TO THE WILES OF JIHADISM

10/20/2019

Matthew Continetti writes: Not wanting to commit the resources necessary to build functioning states, we left Iraq, abandoned Libya, and turned a blind eye to Syria. Not willing to sacrifice Americans on additional fields of battle in the Long War against Islamic terrorism and the religious-political cultures that breed it, we withdrew that presence which guarantees the security of our partners. Pete Buttigieg is right to say that what is happening in Syria is a consequence of American withdrawal. But if what’s happening is a betrayal of American values, it’s one Americans voted for. – Washington Free Beacon

Katherine Zimmerman recommends that to end the “forever war,” the US must adopt a strategy that downgrades the counterterrorism fight and subjugates hard power to soft power.
Read the full report here.

Africa File is a biweekly analysis and assessment of the Salafi-jihadi movement in Africa and related security and political dynamics. Each edition begins "At a Glance” followed by country-specific updates.

Read the latest Africa File here.
East Africa

North Africa
West Africa

Michael Makovsky writes: The White House must find new ways of salvaging four vital national interests at stake: preventing the resurgence of ISIS; checking Turkey in the region; rolling back Iran, which has notched another victory in this Syria fiasco; and bolstering close regional allies threatened by recent events. […]Wednesday’s 354-to-60 vote in the House of Representatives in favor of a resolution rebuking Trump’s abrupt Syrian withdrawal showed it can entail serious political costs. He can’t undo it, but he needs to mitigate the consequences and salvage what he can of US interests, as well as his own and America’s credibility. – New York Post

BEIJING'S LEADERSHIP HAS LOST HONG KONG

10/15/2019

ISLAM VS. CHRISTENDOM ALONG THE SOUTHERN RUSSIAN TIER, WHEN ARE EXIT STRATEGIES VIABLE & A LOOK AT MISSION COMMAND

10/11/2019

Trump's Big Move On Turkey May Gain U.S. Goals
By CONRAD BLACK, Special to the Sun | October 18, 2019
https://www.nysun.com/foreign/trump-big-move-on-turkey-may-gain-us-goals/90872/

Russia-Saudi Rapprochement?
John Hardie | Research Manager

Our So-Called Foreign Policy: The Globalists’ Dangerous Tantrums over Syria and Ukraine by Alan Tonelson

Kurdish, Syrian, And Turkish Ironies
By Victor Davis Hanson via National Review
It is incumbent on the Trump administration in general and on Secretary Pompeo in particular to find ways to prevent mass Turkish attacks on the Kurds, while not inserting American ground troops into a cauldron of fire between Turks and Kurds.

How not to end endless wars
Clifford D. May — The Washington Times
Whatever might be said about Donald Trump, I always figured him for a savvy New Yorker who knew a good deal when he saw one. A prime example was in Syria where the commander in chief, despite understandable misgivings about foreign entanglements, had deployed a small contingent of highly skilled troops to accomplish a mission vital to America’s national security. In military jargon, President Trump was employing “economy of force.” In the context... Read More

Uri Heitner writes: The Kurdish people are a Middle Eastern minority that has endured centuries of persecution. Israel has long seen them as an ally and has provided arms and training to its military organizations. […]Israel must not militarily intervene in Syria. It is not a super power and it is not its job to police the Middle East. […]Israel should be raising the issue at the United Nations and at every other international institution – and move towards sanctions against Turkey. – Ynet

Leonid Bershidsky writes: The weak Western reaction won’t force Erdogan to retreat. But the possibility of an all-out war might thwart his plan to clear a 30-kilometer “safe zone” in Syria. He may need to make a deal with Putin and Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. This could involve allowing him to resettle in northern Syria some of the 3.7 million Syrian refugees Turkey has been sheltering and no longer wants, perhaps making Russia and the Assad regime responsible for holding back any anti-Turkish activity along the border. – Bloomber

Erdoğan Invaded; What's Next in Syria?by Daniel Pipes
DanielPipes.org
October 15, 2019
http://www.danielpipes.org/19075/erdogan-invaded-what-next-in-syria

Anthony H. Cordesman writes: Put bluntly, the U.S. may now have to write off Syria and the Kurds. If it is to remain the major strategic power in the rest of the Middle East and revive NATO as an effective alliance, however, it cannot go on relying on sanctions, empty military threats, sudden force withdrawals, and bluster. It needs to show that it can still lead, do so consistently and effectively, and be trustworthy as a strategic partner. – Center for Strategic and International Studie

Trump’s Syria blunder could bring order to chaos
Hal Brands | Bloomberg Opinion

Trump’s failure, our failure
Danielle Pletka | AEIdeas
America's actions in Syria reflect a failure of leadership. We must persuade our leadership, our policymakers, and the public that it is always cheaper to try to solve problems overseas before they become wars, but we haven’t done so.

Bolton's Purge, Trump's Obama Moments by Jiri Valenta and Leni Friedman Valenta •

When Are Exit Strategies Viable? by David Kamp

http://mfa.gov.az/en/news/909/6384

U.S., MIDDLE EAST:
U.S. Announces Full Withdrawal From Northern Syria As Turkish Forces Advance
By Amberin Zaman & Jack Detsch, Al-Monitor: "A top U.S. official announced Sunday that the United States would be pulling out all of its forces from northeastern Syria, leaving its Syrian Kurdish allies exposed to Turkey’s ongoing military offensive as it entered its fifth day — a move that will likely go down as a further betrayal of the Kurdish people by the United States."

The Trump Doctrine: Principled Realism or Endemic Confusion?
By Daniel S. Morgan, The Hill: "American foreign policy is increasingly falling into disarray and incoherence."

Will New Doctrine Fix Mission Command?
By Doug Orsi & Bobby Mundell, War Room: "But is updating the doctrine sufficient to answer its critics? Persistent execution challenges may go beyond what any doctrine can address."

Alternative Futures:
An Assessment of the 2040 Security Environment Absent Great Power Competition
By Mike Sweeney, Divergent Options: "America is likely to be ill-prepared for the security threats circa 2040. The tasks the U.S. military may be asked to perform in the face of global political instability, mass migration, and environmental degradation are likely to be both unconventional and unwanted."

A Better Idea Can Win the Next Big War for the Ground Services
By Robert Scales, War on the Rocks: "Buried in the rush to embrace multi-domain operations is an all-but-forgotten future-gazing effort the Army began soon after Desert Storm."

BEYOND COUNTER-TERRORISM

HOW THE SALIFI-JIHADI MOVEMENT IS WINNING

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