The age of neo-imperialism
Former empires that aspire to be future empires threaten America.
Clifford D. May | Founder & President
Former empires that aspire to be future empires threaten America.
Clifford D. May | Founder & President
  Europe Does Not Exist by Josef Joffe via Commentary By the numbers, the European Union is a giant. Its economy exceeds China’s by $7 trillion and is just a bit smaller than America’s $20 trillion. Russia? Its GDP of $ 1.7 trillion is petty cash. On paper, the EU nations marshal as many soldiers as does the United States, and half a million more than Russia. Their combined population dwarfs both. But if one measures by its weight in world affairs, Europe is a runt. The European Alliance That Never Was
by Angelo M. Codevilla via Strategika The notion of an Atlantic alliance consisting of Europeans and Americans as full partners was once a useful fiction. Today it is a dysfunctional one, an obstacle to all sides’ understanding of what useful cooperation may yet be possible.  
 Michael Rubin writes: Putin’s lasting legacy, however, will not be his wars in Georgia or Ukraine nor the new submarines , fighter jets , nuclear weapons , or hypersonic missiles whose manufacture and unveilings he has overseen. Rather, Putin’s historic legacy will likely be inheriting a country with great economic potential and leaving it an empty husk. After so many years in power, Putin has no one to blame but himself. Arguments that the West humiliated Russia after the Soviet Union’s fall are nonsensical. – The National Interest
U.S., AFRICA: DoD Developing Supply Route From Djibouti to Somalia By Amanda Sperber, Foreign Policy: "The U.S. Defense Department is in the early stages of a project to develop land-based supply routes from the main American military base in Africa, Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti, to other U.S. camps across the eastern part of the continent." 
For decades, Kenyan authorities have struggled to contain the threat of extremism in their country. And on Tuesday morning, the militant group al-Shabab claimed responsibility for another attack there, this time on a hotel in the upscale Westlands neighborhood of Nairobi. […]Tuesday’s attack also came three years to the day after al-Shabab attacked a Kenyan-run military base in El Adde, Somalia, Williams noted. In that instance, militants detonated explosives and stormed the base, leaving as many as 141 Kenyan soldiers dead, according to a CNN investigation. – Washington Post Caroline Goodson writes: Why should the US commit resources to a far-away fight? Because al Shabaab and al Qaeda are part of a broader Salafi-jihadi movement that has spread across Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia. […]And once they’re settled in Africa, we can be sure they’ll be on our doorstep once again. Far from walking away, the US and its partners must address the governance deficit in Somalia and the broader region. Walking away is little more than surrender. – American Enterprise Institute Nicholas Kristof writes: These protests are unfolding in Sudan against the regime of President Omar al-Bashir, who is wanted by the International Criminal Court for genocide. Other presidents have committed genocide over the last century, but Bashir has the distinction of conducting three different genocides by my count: in South Sudan, in the Nuba Mountains and in Darfur. He is not just a serial killer; he is a serial genocidaire. – New York Times Two deadly terror attacks rocked Syria and Kenya and show that extremist groups such as Islamic State and Al-Shabab have not been dented in their ability to strike at the most sensitive and important targets. On Wednesday, an attack claimed by ISIS struck Americans meeting with locals in the sensitive town of Manbij in northern Syria. Four Americans were reported killed. In Nairobi, Al-Shabab attacked a luxury hotel on Tuesday and murdered more than 20 people. – Jerusalem Post
What Lies Beyond America's Deadliest Day in Syria
// Kathy Gilsinan The assault in northern Syria underscores why Trump wants to get out — and why that's going to be difficult.
Why what happens in Syria is important
NORMAN A. BAILEY After 400 years of Ottoman rule, the region now known as Syria was detached from the dying empire by French and British troops a hundred years ago. After a complex series of maneuvers Syria ended up as a French mandate under the League of Nations mandate system, while the British became the mandate power in Palestine (then including both banks of the Jordan River) and Mesopotamia, now Iraq. After the end of World War II,...
New US sanctions target Iran-backed fighters in Syria
(Al Jazeera) The United States has announced new sanctions on two Iran-backed militias fighting in Syria in a move aimed at raising pressure on Tehran and the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), as Washington prepares for a military withdrawal from the war-torn country.  Turkey’s Libya gambit Michael Rubin | The National Interest Turkey’s goal might not only be the empowerment of radical groups to destabilize Libya. Erdoğan sees the rise of Abdul Fattah el-Sisi in Egypt as an affront, both because Sisi’s rise reversed Muslim Brotherhood control of Egypt and because Erdoğan subsequently lost lucrative contacts inside Egypt. An Islamist Libya could provide refuge for groups dedicated to undercutting Egypt’s stability and returning Islamists to power. Haim Malka writes: Turbulence will increase across the North African Maghreb in the year ahead. Elections, public protest, and economic trends all create the potential for crises that will be difficult to solve. […]All of this matters for the United States because increasing turbulence and shifting dynamics in the Maghreb affect a wide range of U.S. interests including counterterrorism, energy, global trade, and Mediterranean security. And yet, the United States is out of position to both protect its interests and benefit from opportunities. China and Russia recognize the region’s geostrategic importance. – Center for Strategic and International Studies Tunnel Vision: America and Europe’s distorted view of the Middle East
Clifford D. May, Jonathan Schanzer, Tony Badran — FDD's Foreign Podicy Iran has a plan. February will be 40 years since Ayatollah Khomeini returned from exile to Tehran to lead what he called an Islamic Revolution, and begin forming a government committed to jihad. By the end of 1979, he was supreme leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran. What he and his acolytes intend has been stated clearly and with consistency by Iran’s ruling ayatollahs. They intend to destroy their regional enemies, establish a great new empire and dominate the Middle East. They also intend death to America—that may take longer, but they’re not impatient, and they have friends and family to help. In particular, they have Hezbollah, Iran’s Arab, Shia terrorist proxy. Although based in Lebanon, Hezbollah is willing and able to fight beyond Lebanon’s borders, for example in Syria and, if they can, on Israeli soil—by digging under Israeli soil.... Read more 
There's No Walking Away From Islamic Jihad
By John Doe, The Daily Beast: “There are all kinds of wars — conventional and irregular wars, direct and proxy wars, ethnic, political, economic and religious wars. The differences between them are crucial; they drive — or should drive — how we fight them. How we engage with China over Brazil, for example, or Russia over Venezuela, is very different from how we fight Islamic jihadists in Syria, Afghanistan and the Philippines."
DR Congo set for historic political transition
(Agence France-Presse) Felix Tshisekedi is to be sworn in on Thursday as president of Democratic Republic of Congo, marking the country's first-ever peaceful handover of power after chaotic and bitterly-disputed elections.
'Africa Is At A Turning Point': Hoover Series Examines Governance Challenges On A Growing Continent
featuring Hoover Institution via Stanford Daily “Just as we used to tell people, ‘Go west — that’s where things are opening up, growing, dynamic,’” said Jack Goldstone, public policy professor at George Mason University, “I will say to people, ‘Go South,’ because for the next fifty years, Africa is going to have… critical impact on the growth of the [global] economy.” To address this economic opportunity and the challenges to governance arising from it, five Africa experts gathered at the Hoover Institution’s Hauck Auditorium for a “Governance in an Emerging New World” panel on Africa’s development.
Russia’s ambassador to Guinea praised President Alpha Conde as “legendary” and said constitutions can be changed, outraging the opposition and fueling speculation that Russia supports plans for Conde to stay in power after his mandate ends next year. “Do you know many countries in Africa that do better? Do you know many presidents in Africa who do better?” – Bloomberg
China signed a memorandum of understanding with Nigeria Thursday, offering its support to the West African nation’s security forces as they battle an Islamist insurgency in the country’s northeast, the army said. No details on the nature of the assistance were provided in the emailed statement, signed by defense spokesman Tukur Gusau. – Bloomberg Private investigators working for former oligarch and Russian opposition activist Mikhail Khodorkovsky have urged the United Nations to push for a credible investigation of the July 2018 killings of three Russian journalists in the Central African Republic (C.A.R.). During a press briefing from London on January 10, the investigators from Khodorkovsky’s Dossier project said their preliminary investigation had uncovered evidence suggesting the involvement of mercenaries tied to Kremlin-connected tycoon Yevgeny Prigozhin in the killings — allegedly together with C.A.R. law enforcement officials. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty
Congolese opposition leader wins presidency; bishops express doubts
By Fredrick Nzwili on Jan 11, 2019 02:33 pm NAIROBI, Kenya (CWR) – Some observers have viewed the latest elections in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) as a new dawn for the troubled country that has never enjoyed a peaceful transfer of power [...] Read in browser »  Crackdown in Xinjiang: The Islamic World's Achilles Heel
By Dr. James M. Dorsey, January 8, 2019 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: A disagreement between major Indonesian religious leaders and the government on how to respond to China’s crackdown on Turkic Muslims raises questions about the Islamic world’s ability to sustain its silence about what amounts to one of the most concerted assaults on the faith in recent history. Continue to full article ->  Europe's New "Munich": Iran
by Giulio Meotti •  The Good and Bad of the Trump Administration's New Africa Strategy The Trump administration's Africa strategy combines a turn away from counterterrorism as a priority, emphasis on trade, and working to help Africans solve their own problems, all of which could be opportunities for a more positive relationship. The implied prioritization of great power competition, however, suggests the real risk of a return to Cold War-era approach.Read more » Somalia’s government has ordered the top United Nations official in the country to leave, accusing him of interfering with national sovereignty days after he raised concerns about the actions of UN-supported Somali security forces. – Al Jazeera
Nigerian security and civilian sources also said on Monday that troops are preparing to launch an offensive in a bid to retake a strategic town captured by Boko Haram in northeast Nigeria. Fighters from ISIL-affiliated Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) took control of Baga on the shores of Lake Chad on Thursday after over-running military bases. – Al Jazeera Ivor Ichikowitz writes: It’s also clear that in years past, China has played a huge role in the development of Africa, supporting the steady growth of the continent. However, there is an attached belief to some that this was undertaken singularly so that China remains in lock-step competition with the United States for geopolitical dominance; that theirs is ‘predatory capitalism’ personified and warrants similar reaction from the U.S. – The Hill  Five Challenges Awaiting Mattis's Successor
By Rebecca Kheel, The Hill: "Trump on Wednesday told reporters during his visit to Iraq that Shanahan "could be there for a long time." In the short-term, though, here are five immediate challenges the next Defense secretary will face."  Debating a World Reorder by Samir Saran and Harsh Pant Most Read War on the Rocks Articles of 2018 by WOTR Staff Trump Gives New Pentagon Chief a Taste of His World View By Robert Burns, AP: "As Shanahan sat to Trump’s left at a Cabinet meeting at the White House, the president denounced U.S. allies as freeloaders, expressed disgust with U.S. warfighting strategy in Afghanistan, mused about his own potential to be a great general, dismissed Syria as “sand and death,” spoke encouragingly of a second North Korea summit, and falsely claimed he had fired former Defense Secretary Jim Mattis." Shanahan Picks DoD Comptroller Norquist As New Deputy SecDef By Caitlin M. Kenney, Stars and Stripes: “He canceled a trip to a cemetery in France where American soldiers from World War I are buried. He did not go to the observance at Arlington National Cemetery on Veterans Day. He has not visited American troops in Iraq or Afghanistan.” Kurdish fighters withdraw from key Syrian border city BY ASIA TIMES STAFF Move follows appeal to Damascus for support against planned Turkish offensive
 Catherine Harris, Frederick W. Kagan and Kimberly Kagan write: Russia continues to build up and prepare its military forces for possible offensive operations against Ukraine from the Crimean Peninsula and the east. […]ISW therefore assesses that Russia has the capability to go on the offensive in Ukraine imminently and is conducting military maneuvers consistent with that intent. – Institute for the Study of War
 Isolationists won in Syria, but internationalists can prevail Frederick W. Kagan | The Hill Liberal and conservative internationalists must now make up their minds. Shall we continue with the mutual accusations, partisan bickering, and self-canceling rhetoric? Or shall we put aside our policy differences in defense of the principle that the US must remain engaged in the world? Fredrick W. Kagan writes: Trump has set the retreat in motion with his decision to declare victory in Syria and withdraw, as well as to withdraw from Afghanistan for no clear reason whatsoever. The isolationists who have condemned the United States involvement in the Middle East and rest of the world for decades are about to get their wish. […]Our size and geographic advantages make our defeat improbable, yet those on both sides of the political aisle who see these dangers, as well as the need for America to rebuild a world in which we wish to live, must unite. – The Hill U.S., TURKEY, SYRIA:
Will U.S. Exit From Syria Change Terrain of Turkey's Roadmap? By Metin Gurcan, Al-Monitor: “For almost four years, Ankara’s supreme priority in northern Syria has been to erode, if not totally eliminate, the military capacity of Kurdish militias it considers to be terrorists or terrorist-linked — specifically the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and the People's Protection Units (YPG), which Turkey says is the PKK's Syrian offshoot.” SYRIA: Israel Attacks Weapons Depot Near Syrian Capital By Bassem Mroue, AP: “Israeli warplanes flying over Lebanon fired missiles toward areas near the Syrian capital of Damascus late Tuesday, hitting an arms depot and wounding three soldiers, Syrian state media reported, saying that most of the missiles were shot down by air defense units.”    The Coming Franco-German Bust-Up Mark Leonard sees the marriage at the center of the European Union collapsing just when it is needed the most. Decision Time for Europe
Carl Bildt warns that the European Union's success in muddling through crises can no longer be taken for granted.  AL-QAEDA IS GROWING THROUGHOUT THE ISLAMIC MAGHREB while iran sets off a missile in defiance12/12/2018
Iran has confirmed a recent ballistic missile test that was condemned by the United States. The semi-official Fars news agency on Tuesday quoted Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh as saying the test was an “important one.” Hajizadeh, who leads the Revolutionary Guard’s aerospace division, said the American outcry “indicates that the test was very important to them.” – Associated Press
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