EMERGING THREATS U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY - CounterStrikeMedia

CHINA'S BIOLOGICAL WARFARE PROGRAM

2/5/2020

The Political Effects of China’s Biological Chernobyl
By Bradley A. Thayer & Lianchao Han, RealClearDefense: "Much truth is revealed in a crisis. The continuing and ever-worsening effects of the coronavirus epidemic in China, and now the world, spark political facts about the true nature of the regime—how the country is really run—and why it caused a challenging problem to become a global catastrophe."

Shiro Ishii, commander of Unit 731, which performed live human vivisections and other biological experimentation

What America Can Learn From its Mistakes in Syria by Daphne McCurdy

Africa: The First U.S. Casualty of the New Information Warfare Against China by Caleb Slayton

The Grim Reality of the Cruel Seas by Claude Berub

MOSCOW'S MESS: TURKISH INCURSIONS INTO SYRIA; A REVIEW OF TRUMP'S PEACE OFFERING TO ABBAS; LOOKING AT SALIFS ON THE SUBCONTINENT AND WHO REPLACES AL-SISTANI IN IRAQ?

2/5/2020

Turkey faces potential Russian blowback on Syria — and tomatoes are only the beginning
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan finds himself in a tough spot with Russia as tensions in Syria have escalated dramatically. In a rare direct military confrontation between Turkish and Syrian regime forces, 14 Turkish soldiers and over 100 regime troops were killed in two separate clashes in Idlib over the past 10 days.
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RUSSIA, AFRICA:
Facing Few Obstacles and Scant Pushback, Russia Keeps Advancing in Africa
By Stephen Blank, Eurasia Daily Monitor: " According to numerous analyses published by think tanks and journals in the United States and Europe, Russia lost its African adventure before it even started."

The Result of 20 Years of Putin: Russia as a Mafia State
In January, Russia has gone through a political upheaval initiated by Vladimir Putin: proposal for constitutional reform, resignation of the government, appointment of a new cabinet. The pace and scale of these events led some commentators to call them a “constitutional coup.” However, if one is to follow the logic of the regime, the president’s latest decisions should not come as a surprise.

Nataliya Bugayova writes: Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a new phase in his campaign to retain power after 2024 when his current term expires. Putin offered Russians a revised social contract. Putin is reconfiguring the balance of power within the Russian government as he seeks to carve out an optimal spot for himself. Putin is in uncharted territory, trying to create a new transition model for Russia. […]His approach is working so far, with the Kremlin’s opposition disarmed and the public unclear on the net implications of the changes. – Institute for the Study of War

Zvi Bar’el writes: So far, Russia is relating to Erdogan’s statements with cold politeness while continuing to talk about combating terror. Turkey is still an important ally, particularly in the diplomatic battle Russia is waging against the United States, but Russia is keen on ending the war in Syria quickly, so it can cut its outlays and transfer full control to Assad. If Turkey is perceived as an obstacle in Russia’s way, their alliance may be enveloped by a dangerous winter frost. – Haaretz

Gonul Tol writes: While Turkey dials up its criticism of Moscow, Erdogan, who is desperate to attract European investment in the country’s troubled economy, has welcomed German Chancellor Angela Merkel.[…] Despite the long list of problems in Turkey-U.S. relations, the worst that many expected in the form of U.S. sanctions has not materialized yet. And Ankara is threading cautiously to make sure it stays that way. – Middle East Institute

Daniel Pipes writes: So, while transferring the Galilee Triangle from Israeli to Palestinian control looks like an elegant and simple win-win solution, it is sadly infeasible. The Israeli government has apparently rejected it. Of course, this topic drips with irony. The same Israeli Arabs who bluster contempt for the Jewish state and praise the murderers of Jewish children (note the extremists who serve as their parliamentary representatives) also desperately hope to stay in it rather than become part of Palestine. – Jerusalem Post

David Makovsky writes: The Trump plan’s parameters on borders and Jerusalem suggest that the administration has moved the U.S. position sharply in the direction of Israel’s current government. In the most hopeful scenario, the combination of a tough new U.S. approach and the initial openness of Arab states to consider the plan as a point of departure could jolt the Palestinians to decide that time is not on their side, perhaps leading the parties to resume talks and find suitable compromises. In a less hopeful scenario, Palestinian anger toward the plan proves too strong to dispel, and unilateral Israeli annexations in the West Bank produce broad international opposition to the plan, essentially ending any near-term prospects of negotiations or a two-state solution. – Washington Institute

Ghaith al-Omari writes: All previous U.S. plans envisioned a solution for the Palestinian refugee issue consistent with the idea of two states for two peoples. […]By radically departing from certain key tenets seen in previous initiatives, the Trump administration may have undermined its ability to build an international coalition in support of its plan. This was on clear display at the aforementioned Arab League and OIC meetings, and will probably continue to shape the diplomatic discourse in days to come. – Washington Institute

Bobby Ghosh writes: Iraq’s senior-most cleric has no militia, but his huge Shiite following makes his blessing essential for any prime minister. Sistani has expressed sympathy with the protests, opposes Iranian and American influences alike, and has called for a cleansing of country’s politics. Like the protesters, he believes the country needs fresh elections. – Bloomberg

Ibrahim Jalal writes: While the GPC works to resolve intra-party divisions and the Sanaa-based branch struggles to oppose Houthi orders as per Saleh’s last statement, the Gulf countries have made their bet, viewing the GPC as useful even in post-war Yemen. […]Looking ahead to Yemen’s post-war political landscape, another party must emerge from the ashes of war, to heal the grievances of the Yemeni people that have accumulated over the last decade. – Middle East Institute

Mohammed Sinan Siyech writes: Two lessons can be derived from the comparative study of Salafists in India and Pakistan. First, no religious ideology can be considered a harbinger of violence. If this were true, then Salafists who are normally decried as conveyor belts to violence would have turned violent in India. Second, political externalities play a more potent role in radicalizing and militarizing movements than do ideologies. It is for this reason that, broadly speaking, the very same dynamics that radicalize small segments of the Muslim population in Pakistan do the same for some Hindus in India. – Middle East Institute

Suleyman Ozeren, Suat Cubukcu, and Matthew Bastug write: However, as Erdogan runs into more challenges and loses his popular support, he will likely resort to more authoritarian measures to keep a grip on power. He may also double-down on the AKP’s revolutionary Islamist agenda—with disturbing implications for the search for order in the Middle East, for the security of Europe, and for the future of Turkey itself. – Hudson Institute

Kayla Koontz writes: Despite the introduction of a new assembly in 2018, Turkey’s October invasion of northeast Syria provided ample incentives for the launch of new investigations into HDP members protesting the operation. The targeting of the HDP has set new legal and political precedents that could undermine the political capacity of the opposition coalition as a whole and create ideological divisions over the so-called “Kurdish Question.” – Middle East Institute

Brandon Wallace writes: Allawi is unlikely to gather the political capital necessary to execute reforms or fair elections. Indeed, Iraqi political parties may have agreed to his premiership precisely because they would prefer a weak caretaker prior to elections. Political elite are more likely to repress protesters with a weak PM in office. However, the designation of Allawi furthers the very conditions that protesters are demonstrating against. – Institute for the Study of War

ROCKETS HIT BAGHDAD WHILE ISRAEL PERMITS JEWS TO TRAVEL TO RIYADH?

1/27/2020

Rockets hit US Embassy in Baghdad
Three rockets struck the US Embassy in Baghdad’s Green Zone on Sunday, wounding one person in the first known direct hit inside the heavily fortified compound. Iraqi leaders condemned the incident and called for a quick investigation. Meanwhile, security forces shot at anti-government protesters in Baghdad over the weekend, killing at least one person and injuring dozens, while unidentified militiamen burned sit-in tents in the southern city of Nasiriya. Iraq has increasingly become a battleground between Iran and United States since after the assassination of Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani earlier this month, adding fuel to the unrest the country has witnessed since mass protests erupted in October.
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washingtonpost.com

Israel allows citizens to travel to Saudi Arabia
Israel's Interior Minister Aryeh Deri signed an order on Sunday allowing Israelis to travel to Saudi Arabia in the latest sign of warming relations with the Gulf Arab monarchies. The new rules allow travel to Saudi Arabia for religious pilgrimages or for business trips of up to 90 days. Travelers will need an invitation from a Saudi official.
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haaretz.com

Saudi Arabia denies Israel's claim that Israelis can now visit the kingdom
Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan denied Monday that Israeli citizens can enter the kingdom after Israel's Interior Minister Aryeh Deri announced Sunday that they can now travel to Saudi Arabia for religious pilgrimages and business trips. “Our policy is fixed. We do not have relations with the State of Israel, and Israeli passport holders cannot visit the kingdom at the current time,” Prince Faisal told CNN. He added that an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement must be reached first, before discussing relations with Israel.
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arabnews.co

"Nukes for the Ayatollah," Clifford D. May featuring Andrea Stricker and Behnam Ben Taleblu, FDD's Foreign Podicy
"U.S. Maximum Pressure Campaign Should Target Tehran Stock Exchange and Khamenei’s Business Empire," Saeed Ghasseminejad, FDD Policy Brief
"Huawei endangers Western values," Annie Fixler and Mikhael Smits, The Hill

Slain Iranian general Qassim Solemaini’s militias are secretly fighting in Syria’s final rebel stronghold, radio communications leaked to the Telegraph show. The rare recordings reveal how Iranian soldiers and Afghan mercenaries are directing military operations in Idlib, northwest Syria, in a battle they had promised not to take part in during peace talks. – Telegraph

Jeremy Hodge writes: Syrian activists report that the Assad regime has launched its most intense assault since the beginning of the war almost nine years ago. The target is Idlib, the last opposition holdout in northwestern Syria. All indicators suggest that the campaign will produce a new humanitarian disaster and be the beginning of a final confrontation between the Syrian National Army (SNA)—an alliance of Turkish-backed armed opposition forces—and Russian-Iranian-backed pro-Assad units. – Daily Beast

WINEP’s Michael Knights: Moqtada al-Sadr and the international coalition: common ground and fault lines

RUSSIA LEADS FROM BEHIND IN LIBYA, WHILE ASSAD AND HIFTER MOVES ON TO CONSOLIDATE & PUTIN'S LONG GOODBYE; israel and lebanon begin new governments

1/25/2020

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan lobbed a rare direct attack at the emirate of Abu Dhabi over its backing of Khalifa Haftar and the Russian mercenaries fighting on his behalf in Libya. – Bloomberg

Turkey is pushing a new “road map” for Libya, focusing on a conflict 1,000 km from Ankara, while a few kilometers from Turkey’s border refugees are being driven from their homes in Idlib by a Moscow-backed Syrian offensive. – Jerusalem Post

Aaron Y. Zelin writes: For all the reasons laid out here, Washington should continue to engage Tunis in addressing the range of jihadist challenges it faces. […]To thwart the reemergence of ISL, meanwhile, the United States should continue to coordinate airstrikes and share intelligence with its partners in Libya. This will help break up ISL camps and prevent an Iraq- or Syria-style resurgence, which could cut into Tunisia’s existing progress. Setting aside these challenges, the United States should publicly recognize and applaud Tunisia’s successes, thereby encouraging regional stability and stronger relations in areas of mutual interest. – Washington Institute

With Putin's Proposed Changes, Russia Begins Its Transition to One-Party Rule

WINEP’s Anna Borshchevskaya: Russia’s growing interests in Libya

Russia’s 'leading from behind' strategy on Libya
Russia’s Libya policy is less about Libya and more about Europe, hence Moscow’s preference to let the Europeans take the public lead on the conflict.

What's in store for Iraq's PMU after death of top commander?
The Popular Mobilization Units will face fragmentation and division after the assassination of Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, who was the backbone of the Iran-backed organization.

Algeria strives to regain prominence as world powers debate Libya's future
Despite Algeria's best efforts, nine years of conflict in neighboring Libya have essentially brought an international proxy war to Algiers' doorstep.

Libya’s eastern forces advance toward Misrata
Heavy clashes between Libya’s rival forces erupted Sunday as troops loyal to eastern military strongman Khalifa Hifter advanced toward the city of Misrata, threatening a shaky cease-fire. The fighting comes amid growing international diplomacy to uphold a lasting cease-fire in Libya, where Hifter has led a monthslong assault against the UN-backed government in Tripoli.
On Sunday, Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune hosted his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan to discuss the situation in Libya. At a press conference with Tebboune, Erdogan said Turkey is committed to stand by the UN-backed government in Libya, whose instability threatens Algeria. Erdogan next travels to Gambia and Senegal as part of a three-nation African tour.
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aljazeera.com

Assad’s forces inch closer to key town in Idlib
Bashar al-Assad’s forces reached the outskirts of a key rebel-held town on Sunday, after taking control of several towns in the northwestern province of Idlib. Pro-regime media said government forces are “just around the corner” of Maaret al-Numan, through which passes a major highway linking Damascus to Aleppo. The regime’s renewed push, backed by Russian airstrikes, comes despite a Russian-Turkish cease-fire in the country’s last rebel stronghold.
Separately, at least seven people were killed and more than 20 others injured in a car bomb Sunday in the city of Azaz in northern Syria, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said. The attack occurred in a busy area of the city, which is under the control of Turkish-backed rebels. No party has claimed responsibility for the attack.
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gulftoday.ae

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, greeted to a fanfare arrival Sunday in Algiers, said the North African nation is “important for the stability of the region,” an apparent bow to Algerian efforts to play a key role in unwinding chaos in neighboring Libya. – Associated Press

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Friday urged international pressure to force the head of Libya’s eastern-based forces to abide by a tentative truce and said Turkey was determined to continue supporting Libya’s U.N.-backed government. – Associated Press

Rachel Avraham writes: One might ponder, how will all of this affect the State of Israel? Over the short run, it won’t affect Israel too much. Hezbollah is too busy consolidating power in Lebanon and trying to gain influence in Iraq in order to be bothered with Israel. Nevertheless, even though Hezbollah will be busy with other matters over the short run, that does not mean that Hezbollah does not pose a long-term strategic threat to Israel. […]For this reason, Israel should act now against Hezbollah when they are weak instead of waiting for them to attack once they get their house in order. – Arutz Sheva

Hanin Ghaddar and Matthew Levitt write: Against the backdrop of three months of political and economic protests, Lebanese politicians appear to have reached a deal establishing a nominally technocratic government in Beirut. […]The formation of a new Lebanese government has been a central demand of the international community and a necessary precondition for any international aid. But that is not enough. The government must quickly take action to fight corruption and enhance transparency. For a country that has run on corruption and political patronage, this will be a very heavy lift. – The Hill

Nathali Goulet writes: Lebanon’s stability concerns us all because it is an essential part of the stability of the Middle East — which is why the international community must place itself at the disposal of the new Prime Minister and ensure at the first request the implementation of its policy for recovery of stolen and misappropriated assets. – The Hill

Michael Rubin writes: Perhaps with Belgium taking a fresh look at the PKK, it is time for the United States also to reconsider the evidence that led to the PKK’s terror designation under U.S. law. It is now clear that Turkish evidence is not reliable and is often fabricated. Further, the circumstances of PKK designation in 1997 — thirteen years after its insurgency began and apparently timed to be a sweetener to a Clinton administration arms sale to Turkey — suggest that its original designation is more diplomatic than objective. – Washington Examiner

The guessing game is over. Ever since Vladimir Putin was reelected in 2018 to his final constitutionally allotted six year term of office, speculation abounded on how Putin would circumvent presidential term limits. […]Despite Putin’s in your face solution to the constitutional dilemma, the reaction aside from a handful of picket sign holders ranged from resignation to relief. – Middle East Media Research Institute

Editorial: Mr. Whether that is true is questionable. Mr. Putin’s approval ratings have been declining steadily in domestic polls; Russians perceive that the country’s economy has been stagnant in recent years, and that it lags far behind the West technologically. Many have grown weary of Mr. Putin’s foreign adventures in places such as Syria and eastern Ukraine, which have exposed the country to punishing sanctions – Washington Post

Joseph Bosco writes: But, on balance, Russia seems to prefer a change in Washington’s administration. Sanders offers an even more inviting target, given his aversion to U.S. military spending and foreign intervention and his attraction to Russian, Chinese and Latin American communist dictators. It’s no wonder, then, that both Russia and China may be exploiting the coronavirus pandemic to undermine the Trump administration during this critical election year. – The Hill

MAPPING IRAN'S BATTLE PLANS; GRAY ZONES MULTIPLY: US ENEMIES WAGE GLOBAL WAR & WHY MARKETS MATTER FOR THE LONG WAR

1/25/2020

“New” Realities of Twenty-First Century Asymmetric Conflict
By Max G. Manwaring, Small Wars Journal: "A multi-polar world in which one or a hundred non-state and state actors are exerting differing types and levels of power, within a set of cross-cutting types and levels of power, is extremely volatile and dangerous. The security and stability of the global community is threatened, and the benefits of globalism could be denied to all. Thus, it is incumbent on the United States and the rest of the global community to understand and cope with the unconventional threats imposed by the diverse actors engaged in the destabilizing conflicts that are called asymmetric or hybrid conflict, or Grey Area Phenomena (GAP)—or what John Sullivan has called a ‘bazaar of violence’ that fuels the convergence of crime and war."

Grey zone is the new black
Too many smart people don’t grasp that a war is being waged against us

Propeller of Growth
Allison Schrager, City Journal
Technology and globalization are changing the nature of work and commerce, displacing workers, and altering the way of life for many people. In response to this uncertain economic environment, policymakers from both parties have become preoccupied with reducing risk. But many of their risk-management proposals go too far, address the wrong sources of risk, and would undermine America’s economic leadership. Read more here..

No market exists in a social vacuum, and hardly any market exists in a political vacuum.
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Iran’s Reserve of Last Resort:
Uncovering the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Ground Forces Order of Battle
By Fred Kagan, AEI: "Qassem Soleimani’s death, the prospect of further U.S.-Iranian military escalation, and the reemergence of large protests in Iran in recent months raise the question of Iran’s capacity to conduct military operations beyond its borders while suppressing dissent within them."

The end of Obama’s Middle East
Matthew Continetti | Commentary
Trump's killing of Qassem Soleimani was the death knell for the yearslong failure of Obama's attempted rapprochement with the Iranian regime.

The arc of America’s history is bent by institutions
Timothy P. Carney | Washington Examiner

Trump rejects the fake separation between Iran and its militias
No longer playing Iran's game

HOOVER DIGEST ISSUE peruse the entire issue on the Hoover website.

ILLICIT GOLD TRADE DOMINATES TRANS-SAHEL ISLAMISM & IRAN'S GANG WARFARE MOVES TO SYRIA

1/24/2020

Despite tentative government efforts to wrestle parts of the gold industry away from Sudan’s security services and back under state or private control, questions remain about whether Sudan can truly transition to democracy while the politically powerful RSF run a parallel economy all of their own. – The Guardian

America Shouldn’t Abandon Its Allies in the Sahel by Olivier-Rémy Bel

Olivier-Rémy Bel writes: Thus, a limited but critical American investment — airlift and surveillance assets — would go a long way towards ensuring that Europe remains both a willing and able ally in the great-power game. That investment needs not be endless. Europeans are stepping up. France purchased C-130J transport aircraft and Reaper drones to fill capability gaps. Denmark and the United Kingdom have sent lift helicopters. European forces, from Estonia to Germany, the Czech Republic to Spain, Finland to Portugal, are deploying in the Sahel to an unprecedented extent, either in Barkhane, the EU’s training mission, or the UN stabilization mission. – War on the Rocks

Sanctioned by the West and spurned by China, Zimbabwe has turned to the United Arab Emirates in its latest bid to find a savior that can arrest the collapse of its economy. Zimbabwe’s government has approached the U.A.E. in hopes of selling a stake in its national oil company, according to three company and government officials familiar with the plan. It also wants companies in the U.A.E. to buy more of its gold, they said. – Bloomberg

https://www.cardinalresources.com.au

Algeria seeks coordination with neighbors on Libya
Algeria hosted officials from Libya’s neighbors on Thursday to discuss a fragile truce in the country and ways to limit foreign influence. The meeting aimed to strengthen “coordination between countries neighboring Libya and international players to accompany Libyans in reviving the political settlement process,” the Algerian government said. Foreign ministers from Egypt, Tunisia, Chad, Niger, Sudan and Mali attended the meeting, as well as Germany’s Foreign Minister Heiko Maas. Berlin over the weekend hosted a summit to discuss the situation in Libya, where eastern military strongman Khalifa Hifter is leading a monthslong assault against the UN-backed government in Tripoli.
Separately, the Libyan capital’s only operational airport resumed flights on Thursday, one day after shutting down due to a rocket attack. The Mitiga airport has been repeatedly hit since the start of Hifter’s offensive last April.
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alaraby.co.uk

Rwanda and neighboring countries in Africa’s Great Lakes region are at risk of worsening violence if the different countries back rival rebel forces to destabilize each other, according to a report by the International Crisis Group. – Bloomberg

The Sahel is facing an unprecedented wave of violence, with more than 4,000 deaths reported last year, and a bloody start to 2020. – The Guardian

Robert Burns, Abdi Guled and Cara Anna write: Islamic extremists are already exploiting possible U.S. military cuts in Africa that have caused a rare bipartisan outcry in Washington, with lawmakers stressing the need to counter China and Russia and contain a growing threat from Islamic State group affiliates. […]The Pentagon’s possible reduction of U.S. troops in Africa is part of a worldwide review by Defense Secretary Mark Esper, who is looking for ways to tighten the focus on China and Russia. It is not known when a decision will be announced, but officials say Esper has made clear the U.S. will not withdraw from Africa entirely. – Associated Press

MOSCOW BROKERS LIBYAN DEAL: IMPACT ON TURKEY, UAE & EGYPTIAN REGIONAL AMBITIONS

1/13/2020

SDF commander says Kurds ready for dialogue if Ankara is sincere
In an exclusive interview with Al-Monitor in northeast Syria, General Mazlum Kobane spoke on a range of issues including prospects for reviving dialogue with Turkey, President Donald Trump's decision to withdraw US troops from Syria and the impact of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani's killing in Iraq.

Turkish Voters – and Putin – Will Restrain Erdogan’s Libya Ambitions

What we need to learn about the Mideast
Michael Rubin | New York Daily News

Libya’s warring sides to sign cease-fire deal in Moscow
The leaders of Libya’s warring parties are expected to arrive in Moscow today to sign a cease-fire agreement brokered by Russia and Turkey. The internationally recognized government in Tripoli and forces loyal to eastern military strongman Khalifa Hifter over the weekend accepted the cease-fire that went into effect on Sunday, despite reports of violations by both sides. Russia and Turkey, which support opposing sides in the conflict, have stepped up diplomatic efforts in recent weeks to end Hifter's monthslong offensive against Tripoli. Russian mercenaries back Hifter while Turkey has sent troops to support the beleaguered UN-backed Government of National Accord. Representatives of the United Arab Emirates and Egypt, which support Hifter, are also expected to attend the talks as observers.
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al-monitor.com

Jonathan Spyer is a Middle East analyst, author and journalist specializing in the Levant and Iraq. He is the director of the Middle East Center for Reporting and Analysis (MECRA), a Research Fellow at the Jerusalem Center for Strategy and Security and a Fellow at the Middle East Forum.
Relevant Articles:
·
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-01-15/syrias-kurdish-forces-hold-back-tides
· https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/01/iraq-kurdistan-adel-abdul-mahdi-us-troops-isis.html
· https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/op-eds/counter-iran-with-an-independent-kurdistan
· https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/iraqs-sunnis-and-kurds-must-pick-side-iran-us-battle
· https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20200114-report-syria-kurdish-politician-executed-by-turkey-backed-militia/
· https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/u-s-restarts-counter-isis-operations-paused-after-soleimani-killing-n1116851

HOW CHINA SUPPORTS IRAN FOR THE LONG GAME

1/11/2020

Robotics are making Iran’s military more dangerous than ever
Michael Rubin | The National Interes

Iran can play the long game
Kenneth Pollack | RealClearWorld
Iran responded to the killing of Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani exactly as it said it would, with an overt military strike against a pair of American military targets. While the strike was perfunctory and mostly painless for the United States, we should not assume Iran’s retaliation is over.

IRAN MAKES MASSIVE STRATEGIC BLUNDERS

1/11/2020

WHY DOES AUSTRALIA BURN

1/11/2020

MODI WALKS INDIAN TIGHT ROPE: CITIZENSHIP ACT

1/11/2020

India-Bangladesh on a diplomatic tightropeFor the current Bangladeshi regime, maintaining the stance that the formation of the National Register of Citizens (NRC) and the subsequent enactment of the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) are India’s “internal matter” has become an increasingly difficult task. Sheikh Hasina’s government has been having a hard time assuaging the increasing number of opposing voices inside the country, who termed her reaction toward India’s controversial actions as “soft.” Faisal Mahmud has the story.

HOW WEAK STATES IN LATIN AMERICA USE NARCO-TERROR TACTICS

1/11/2020

SOUTH ASIA AND AFRICA: GROUND ZERO FOR JIHADISM & IRAN'S STRATEGIC INTENT

1/11/2020

The Iraq Uprising: Where Does It Go From Here?

Nile Bowie here examines how global markets and oil prices have whipsawed over the last few days as Iran’s retaliatory strikes against American military bases in Iraq were followed by conciliatory statements from US President Donald Trump and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, that signaled, at least for now, that the hostilities will not spiral into full-blown war.

Christina Lin explores how China might have taken sides with Iran if all-out war had broken out. Joint war games, held at the end of December in the Gulf of Oman, sent a clear signal to the US, argues Lin, that “Iran is not isolated and has powerful allies.”

However, Stephen Bryen argues that the notion of any real military alliance among China, Russia and Iran is “questionable” and talk of any form of combined Chinese and Russian military intervention in Iran remains “unrealistic.” “Legally speaking,” writes Bryen, “neither Russia nor China has a security agreement or defense treaty with Iran.”

For MK Bhadrakumar, these military exercises ultimately “gained little” for Iran but instead helped Moscow and Beijing more, by allowing them “to thumb their noses at Washington.”

Indeed, as Christina Lin points out, the exercises may have been an attempt by Beijing and Moscow to sully American prestige in the Middle East but neither party wants all-out war. Beijing “needs Mideast stability to pursue the Belt and Road Initiative Eurasian integration plan,” writes Lin. “It has large stakes in Iran’s stability: It is the largest buyer of Iranian oil, China is Iran’s largest trading partner, and Iran is a key geographic node for the BRI.”

Lin says China has tried to balance its relationship with Saudi Arabia and Iran in the Middle East and set up a firewall between the two, “although Iran is more significant in China’s strategic calculus given the fact Saudi Arabia and other Arab Gulf countries are still under the US security umbrella and host US military bases."

US-Iran climbdown gives markets cause for pause by Nile Bowie
China might take Iran’s side in a war with US by Christina Lin
There’s a silver lining in a potential US-Iran war by Stephen Bryen
Iran opting for ‘total war’ against US by MK Bhadrakumar
Trump moves to de-escalate Iran crisis by Pepe Escobar

Jihadism in South Asia: A militant landscape in flux
South Asia is home to more Islamist terrorist organizations than any other region of the world, but at the turn of the decade the region's two leading global jihadist groups are facing a severe leadership vacuum following the death of ISIS’s supreme leader and caliph, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, and the killing of al-Qaeda heir apparent Hamza bin Laden.
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What is Iran's next move?

Tehran's strategic intent

A Guide to Getting Real on Iran by Aaron Stein

HOW GEOPOLITICS SHAPES TRUMPS IRANIAN POLICY

1/11/2020

Will the killing of Soleimani be the death knell for Trump’s own Middle East strategy?
The killing of Iranian Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani and Iraqi militia chief Abu Mehdi al-Muhandis was an important tactical victory, but the crucial question is whether the Trump administration can parlay it into a wider strategic victory and avoid it becoming a strategic defeat, writes Kenneth Pollack.
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Qassem Soleimani and US-Iran relations

In killing Soleimani, Trump enforces the red line he drew on Iran
President Donald Trump’s decision to kill Iranian Revolutionary Guard Quds Force commander Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani should have come as no surprise to the Iranian regime, explains Marc Thiessen. The administration had drawn a clear red line, warning Iranian leaders they would pay a severe price if they killed a US citizen.
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Iran's Missiles and Its Evolving "Rings of Fire"
By Uzi Rubin, January 9, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s warning on the emergent Yemen-originating missile threat corresponds to Iran’s modus operandi of surrounding its foes with missile “rings of fire” and will enable Tehran to complete the missile encirclement of the Jewish state as a step toward its eventual demise. Israel must do its utmost to confront this new strategic threat by establishing an alert system and defense capabilities against Yemen-originating cruise and ballistic missiles, whatever the cost.
Continue to full article ->

THE MULLAH'S OPTIONS ON TRUMP

1/6/2020

The Soleimani Killing: An Initial Assessment

Qods Force commander Soleimani’s carelessness put him in the U.S. military’s crosshairs
Qods Force commander Qassem Soleimani became "complacent" while traveling to and from Iraq, and did not believe the U.S. would target him, U.S. military officials told FDD's Long War Journal. The military was able to reliably track his movements at times.

The Post-Suleimani View From Iran
by Abbas Milani via Project Syndicate
One hopes that Iranian leaders' domestic woes and deep desire for self-preservation will lead them to embrace symbolic acts of retaliation in response to the recent assassination of the security and intelligence chief Qassem Suleimani.

How Will the Iranians Respond?
by Seth Frantzman
The National Review
January 4, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/60200/how-will-the-iranians-respond

What Is The Middle East In The Middle Of Anymore?
by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness
The United States is trying to square a circle, remaining strong and deterring dangerous elements, but to do so for U.S. interests—interests that increasingly seem to

Iranian Analytics
by Victor Davis Hanson via National Review

Why Is Russia In Syria?
by Jakub Grygiel via American Interest
Russia recently announced that it will spend $500 million to fix and update the commercial port of Tartus in Syria. In 2017 Moscow had renewed its lease over the port, signing an agreement with Damascus in a clear show of support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. But Russian (and before 1991, Soviet) naval presence there dates back to the early 1970s.

Top commander's assassination leaves Iran with very few options to retaliate
Following Qasem Soleimani's assassination in Iraq, there has been heightened concern about an Iranian reaction. But due to Tehran's economic hardship, decreased support from the public in Middle East societies and international isolation, Iran isn't likely to seek revenge militarily against the United States.

What Iran lost with Soleimani’s killing
The top military commander’s influence went beyond his military prowess, and will be something that no successor can likely replicate.

The killing of Iranian Quds force commander Qassem Soleimani and Iraqi militia chief Abu Mehdi al-Muhandis was an important tactical victory. But the crucial question is whether the Trump administration can parlay it into a wider strategic victory and avoid it becoming a strategic defeat, writes Kenneth Pollack in an AEIdeas blog. The killings could soon present Trump with a stark choice between getting far more involved in the Middle East to support our allies and hold back the Iranians and getting out altogether. Unfortunately, doing either right would require a skill and subtlety that Trump has yet to demonstrate. Finish reading here.

The killing of Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad on Friday generated a predictably partisan flurry of praise and condemnation. But the context in which the decision to kill him was made is being lost in angry rhetoric, explains Fred Kagan in a New York Daily News op-ed. Only once the US stops looking for simplistic solutions and stops assigning blame either to Obama or Trump do we stand a chance of building a policy that can achieve an end to this conflict at an acceptable cost. Continue here.

Qassem Soleimani was responsible for the deaths of more Americans than any terrorist leader since Osama bin Laden. No one should mourn his death. In Iran, however, he was a revered figure like former US Defense Secretary James Mattis, notes Michael Rubin in a National Interest op-ed. As the second- and third-order effects of his death become clear, it is imperative that the US national security bureaucracy alongside Congress work overtime on a nonpartisan, broad strategy to contain the negative and exploit the positive. Learn more here.

The US air strike that killed Soleimani and Muhandis was not simply a sharp departure in the Trump administration’s policy toward Tehran. It also marks a larger shift in America’s response to Iranian influence and provocations in the Middle East, writes Hal Brands in a Bloomberg op-ed. President Trump has gambled that an extraordinary escalation will allow it to reset control of an intensifying US-Iran confrontation. And while it may actually work, weathering the diplomatic and military fallout will require far greater skill and competence than Trump’s team has displayed so far. Continue here.

Last week, in the context of the attacks by Iranian-backed militias on the US Embassy in Baghdad and perhaps with an intimation of the drone strike that killed Soleimani, Secretary of Defense Mark Esper pronounced, “The game has changed.” In a Detroit News op-ed, Giselle Donnelly writes that the “game” in the Middle East remains the same: It is still a multisided struggle for power in the wake of the collapse of the postcolonial and “nationalist” governments established after World War II. Learn more here.

Earlier last month, Hal Brands, Kenneth Pollack, and Steven Cook noted in Foreign Policy that President Trump sees himself as a leader who shatters generations of conventional wisdom in US foreign policy. In the case of Iran, he is right. And unless the president changes course, he will usher in a brave new era in US relations with the Persian Gulf — one that may well help Iran claim its long-sought ascendancy in that region and leave Americans longing for the good old days of the Carter Doctrine. Read more here.

Following the release of The Washington Post’s Afghanistan Papers, Fred Kagan took to the AEIdeas blog to argue that contrary to the Post’s reporting, American leaders did not systematically lie to the American people about the situation in Afghanistan. Afghanistan is not Vietnam. George Bush did not lie America into this war. And he, Barack Obama, Donald Trump, and their generals and diplomats did not conceal the challenges and failures the US was facing. Learn more here.

Iran Lacks Good Options
by Jonathan Spyer
The Jerusalem Post
January 4, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/60201/iran-lacks-good-options

Iraq parliament votes to expel US troops
Iraq's parliament on Sunday passed a nonbinding resolution to expel the 5,000 or so US troops in the country following the killing of Iranian military commander Qasem Soleimani and Iraqi militia leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis in a US airstrike at Baghdad airport. "The Iraqi government must work to end the presence of any foreign troops on Iraqi soil and prohibit them from using its land, airspace or water for any reason," the resolution reads. The vote comes amid intense pressure from pro-Iran militias, which have called for retaliation. Kurdish and most of the Sunni members of parliament did not attend the parliamentary session in protest of the resolution.
Meanwhile two rockets hit near the US embassy in Baghdad on Sunday, the AFP reports, hours after the Iraqi government summoned US Ambassador Matthew Tueller. NATO has called for an urgent meeting of the alliance's ambassadors today to address the fallout from the US strike after suspending its training mission in Iraq on Saturday over increased security risks.
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aljazeera.com

Trump’s Iran policy spirals toward control
Hal Brands | Bloomberg Opinion
President Trump has gambled that an extraordinary escalation will allow his administration to reassert control over an intensifying US-Iran confrontation. It may actually work. But weathering the diplomatic and military fallout will require far greater skill and competence than Trump’s team has displayed so far.

U.S. Kills Qassem Soleimani
Tony Badran
Donald Trump cuts off Iran’s terror arm in Iraq, while Israel braces for Iranian retaliation
Read More →

TURKEY COMPETES WITH EGYPT IN LIBYA & TRUMP KILLS OF IRANIAN TERROR LEADER

1/3/2020

Libya: Turkish Forces Enter Libya following Airstrike at Military Academy. Turkish President Erdogan on Sunday announced that Turkish military units had begun moving into Libya to support Libya’s internationally recognized Government of National Accord. “There will be an operation center, there will be a Turkish lieutenant general leading and they will be managing the situation over there. [Turkish soldiers] are gradually moving there right now,” Erdogan said. The move comes after a rebel airstrike killed at least 30 at a government-backed military academy over the weekend. BBC Reuters Al Jazeera

Qods Force commander Soleimani’s carelessness put him in the U.S. military’s crosshairs

U.S. kills Iran’s Qods Force commander and Iraq’s deputy PMF leader in strike in Baghdad

Turkey’s economy remains vulnerable
Desmond Lachman | AEIdeas

U.S. Kills Qassem Soleimani
Donald Trump cuts off Iran’s terror arm in Iraq, while Israel braces for Iranian retaliatio

Soleimani is dead, but the enemy still stands
Alireza Nader | Senior Fellow

The Unthinkable: Soleimani Executed in Iraq by Seth Frantzman
The Jerusalem Post
January 3, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/60196/the-unthinkable-soleimani-killed-in-iraq

Soleimani Schemed Against America As His World Crumbled
By BENNY AVNI, Special to the Sun | January 3, 2020
https://www.nysun.com/foreign/soleimani-plotted-against-america-as-his-world/90962/

"U.S. kills Iran’s Qods Force commander and Iraq’s deputy PMF leader in strike in Baghdad," Bill Roggio and Caleb Weiss, FDD's Long War Journal

Turkey: Ankara Approves Military Deployment to Libya. The Turkish parliament on Thursday approved a bill to send troops to support the UN-backed government in Libya. Egypt, who supports the Libyan government’s opposition, led by Khalifa Haftar, said the decision "negatively affects the stability of the Mediterranean region.” U.S. President Donald Trump in a phone call warned Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan against "foreign interference.” Al Jazeera BBC

Get the full Intel Brief here.

Turkey's Ambitions in Libya and the Mediterranean Hinge on Naval Expansion
by Burak Bekdil
The Gatestone Institute
December 30, 2019
https://www.meforum.org/60192/turkeys-gunboat-gambit-in-the-mediterranean

Turkish parliament approves troop deployment to Libya
In a measure with regionwide implications, the Turkish parliament approved a motion Jan. 2 to deploy forces to Libya during an extraordinary meeting before the start of its 2020 legislative session next week.

Though details remain unclear on the involvement of Turkish troops in direct combat operations, the vote established a one-year mandate for Turkish forces to transfer weapons, planes and vehicles in support of the UN-recognized Tripoli government headed by Fayez al-Sarraj.
Read Full Article

Iran Can No Longer Rely on Shia Militias to Fight its Wars by Con Coughlin

How Russia is reading the killing of Qasem Soleimaini
Moscow weighs the implications of the elimination of one of the Middle East's most powerful men.

With Turkey preoccupied with Libya, Idlib slips through Ankara’s fingers
While Turkey prepares to send troops to Libya, Russia's uncompromising attitude on Idlib signals that Ankara will not get what it wants in Syria.

THE RIVALRY WITH IRAN, CHINA IN 2020 & GERMAN INSECURITY DOMINATES THE CONTINENT

12/27/2019

The Coming Iranian Pearl Harbor
quoting Victor Davis Hanson via The Epoch Times
The Iranian dictatorship may be losing its grip on power. Consequently, its historical strategy of continuous but low-level attacks on American interests in the Middle East may be changing into something more deadly. The Iran regime may be so desperate that it is planning a spectacular attack, an Iranian Pearl Harbor, to induce the United States to settle matters largely on Iranian terms.

Elizabeth Economy: China's Power: Up For Debate
interview with Elizabeth Economy via Center for Strategic & International Studies
Hoover Institution fellow Elizabeth Economy discusses the challenges and opportunities presented by China’s rise in power as well as the core issues underpinning the nature of Chinese power.

Elizabeth Economy: Podcast: Ian Shepherdson On The U.S.-China Trade War And China's Mounting Economic Challenges
interview with Elizabeth Economy via Council on Foreign Relations
Hoover Institution fellow Elizabeth Economy discusses China’s mounting economic challenges, progress on economic reform efforts, and the likely long-term economic and geopolitical effects of the US-China trade war.

China, More Than Trump, Has Been Driving the Slowdown in Global Trade

Germany: A "Latent Sense of Insecurity" by Judith Bergman

HOOVER TACKLES SYRIA: TURKEY GOES ROUGE; LIBYAN WARLORD INCHES FORWARD & TRUMP MUDDLES THROUGH ON SYRIAN STRAGEGY

12/18/2019

Strategika Issue 62: Is The Mediterranean Still Geo-strategically Essential?
via Hoover Daily Report
Strategika Issue 62 is now available online. Strategika is an online journal that analyzes ongoing issues of national security in light of conflicts of the past—the efforts of the Military History Working Group of historians, analysts, and military personnel focusing on military history and contemporary conflict

Is The Mediterranean Still Geo-Strategically Essential?
by Barry Strauss via Strategika
The Mediterranean Sea is today, as it has always been, a crossroads. The name itself testifies to that, as it means “the sea in the middle of the earth,” a Latin term reflecting an earlier Greek belief. We know better, or do we? From Syria to Libya and on the high seas, and with outside players including China, Iran, Russia, and the United States, the Mediterranean has re-emerged of late as a cockpit of conflict.

Endy Zemenides: Washington Must "Show Turkey It Cannot Act with Impunity" against U.S. Interests
by Marilyn Stern and Gary C. Gambill
Middle East Forum Radio
December 21, 2019
https://www.meforum.org/60140/endy-zemenides-on-turkey-libya-accord

Turkey accepts invitation to deploy troops to Libya, Erdogan says
The Turkish Parliament will vote on sending soldiers to the north African country to support its internationally recognized government, but the deployment could entrench Turkey in Libya’s long-running internal strife as well as intensify regional tensions.

Libya's Political Instability Makes Room for ISIS to Regroup by Ahmed Charai •

The Russian Presence In Syria Is A Force For Chaos Rather Than Order
quoting Jakub Grygiel via Mosaic Magazine
After a hiatus from involvement in the Middle East that began in 1991, Russia has reasserted itself in the region through its intervention in the Syrian civil war. Jakub Grygiel explains how America made this return possible through empty rhetoric, passivity, and shortsightedness.

Turkey’s Kurdish sweep backfires
President Erdogan’s Syria plan has had unintended ramifications: Saudi Arabia and the UAE are now cozying up to the Kurds, the Kurds are uniting, and the Russians are guiding the solutions on the ground.

Brothers in Arms
The Consolidation of the Turkey-Qatar Axis

PERSPECTIVES ON 2019
POLICYED: 2019 IN REVIEW
FEATURED BOOKS BY HOOVER SCHOLARS IN 2019

If We Leave
by Charles Hill via The Caravan
The Islamic political philosopher Alfarabi (872-950), one of the notable transmitters of ancient Greek classical texts from the Eastern Mediterranean through the Maghreb to Spain’s al-Andalus and on into Western Europe, produced in his major work the idea of “The Virtuous City,” an ideal form of governance I occasionally heard mentioned by my Arab colleagues when I served at the United Nations in the 1990’s.

The Caravan: The Syrian Crisis
via The Caravan
Issue 1924 of The Caravan is now available online. The journal is a periodic symposium on the contemporary dilemmas of the Greater Middle East.

The Syrian Front
Reuel Marc Gerecht | Senior Fellow

Will Libya become Turkey’s next Syria?
The recently signed Turkey-Libya military cooperation deal and maritime delimitation agreement threatened to raise tensions not only in Libya but throughout the Eastern Mediterranean with Turkey asserting the right to intervene militarily in Libya if requested and to drill for oil and gas.

Is Turkey Coming Back? Policy Experts Predict 'Rogue Ankara' Over Long Term
by Benjamin Baird
The Armenian Weekly
December 17, 2019
https://www.meforum.org/60130/experts-predict-rogue-turkey-over-long-term

Our Confused Syria Debate
by Omar Hossino via The Caravan
The policy debate on Syria has unfortunately been reduced to a discussion of whether or not U.S. troops should remain in that country. What is missing in the debate however is a fundamental reflection on why we should be in Syria at all. Iran should be at the heart of that question.

Yemen's shaky power-sharing pact faces uncertain future
The agreement between Yemen's government and secessionist forces in the south has shown little progress since it was signed more than a month ago.

Libyan rebels advance on Tripoli
Libyan warlord Khalifa Hifter’s forces are advancing toward the capital Tripoli, a spokesman for Hifter's self-proclaimed Libyan National Army (LNA) said on Monday. Ahmed al-Mesmari added that LNA forces had downed a Turkish drone. Hifter ordered his forces last week to advance on Tripoli in a “final battle” for the capital. He launched his offensive against the UN-recognized Government of National Accord in April, with support from the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Russia. The assault has drawn international condemnation but little action except from Turkey, which has pledged to send troops if Tripoli asks.
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arabnews.com

Pentagon chief says he needs to speak to Turkey about threat to close US bases
US Defense Secretary Mark Esper said Monday he needed to speak with his Turkish counterpart to understand how serious Ankara is about shutting down two strategic air bases. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned Sunday that Turkey could close the Incirlik Air Base and the Kurecik radar station in retaliation to threats of US sanctions and a congressional resolution recognizing the Ottoman-era Armenian genocide. “The first I heard of it was reading it in the papers … so I need to talk to my defense counterpart to understand what they really mean and how serious they are,” Esper told reporters. Esper said over the weekend that he was worried Turkey is “spinning out” of the NATO orbit.
Read More
dailysabah.com

Unknowable Syria?
by Nibras Kazimi via The Caravan
I had to take a pause once news filtered out that the ‘caliph’ of the Islamic State, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, had been killed in the small village of Barisha near the Syrian-Turkish border—of all places. Notwithstanding that that area of Idlib Province is currently controlled by his ideological rivals—fellow jihadists who would have gladly killed him off themselves—and has been so for a number of years, there were several other mitigating factors that would deem such a locale a forbidding refuge from a jihadist security mindset.

The Syria Redeployment As Counter-Iran Strategy
by Tony Badran via The Caravan
President Trump’s withdrawal of US troops on the Syria-Turkey border met with a bipartisan rebuke. While rejection of the president’s decision was the consensus, the rationales for the rejection varied, reflecting multiple and often discordant objectives that the president’s critics have projected onto the US military mission in Syria.

Lebanon has designated a new prime minister, whose candidacy was proposed by the Iranian-backed Hezbollah movement, a move that risks provoking further political unrest and alienating the country’s Western allies just when Lebanon most needs international support for its rapidly collapsing economy. – Washington Post

Hussein Ibish writes: Hezbollah, in particular, is desperate to protect the existing political order, one that maximizes its influence and minimizes its responsibility. No one stands to lose more from the sweeping reforms demanded by the protesters: a complete overhaul of the political system, undertaken by a government of unaffiliated technocrats. […]And what if, as is likely, the new man is rejected by the protesters? It is conceivable Hezbollah will go back to the drawing board, and seek another compromise candidate who preserves the status quo. – Bloomberg

Soner Cagaptay and Ben Fishman write: U.S. indecision regarding the battle for Tripoli has allowed the Russians to gain influence on the southern flank of NATO. It has also created another unnecessary friction point with Turkey, as well as between Ankara and other U.S. allies in the East Mediterranean. Washington now has a narrow window to prevent further violence in Libya and limit Moscow’s influence there. […]U.S. officials should also threaten to use existing sanctions authorities against violators of a ceasefire once it is signed. – Washington Institute

In his November 18, 2019 column in the London-based daily Al-Arab, Tunisian writer and poet Habib Lassoued attacked the U.S., saying it was continuing to cultivate relations with Qatar and to praise it for its contribution to regional security while ignoring the extensive evidence of Qatar’s support for global terrorism and Iran-sponsored terrorism. – Middle East Media Research Institute

Intel: Pentagon refuses to put timeline on Syria mission
Defense Secretary Mark Esper refused to put a timeline on the Pentagon’s scaled-down mission to defeat the Islamic State and guard Syrian oil fields at the agency’s last press briefing of the year.

Pacts between Libya, Turkey raise tensions with Egypt
Egypt's criticism of Libya's internationally recognized government is mounting in light of the latter's maritime and security agreements with Turkey.

On December 22, 2019, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan spoke about the movement of Syrians toward the Turkey-Syria border amid an ongoing offensive in Idlib by Syrian government forces in a speech he gave at the İlim Yayma Ödül Töreni (“Spreading Knowledge Award Ceremony”) at Dolmabahçe Palace in Istanbul President Erdoğan said: “[…]All European countries, above all, Greece, will feel the negative reflections of the pressure to which we will be exposed. In such a situation, a repeat of what happened before the March 18 concord will be unavoidable.” – Middle East Media Research Institute

BOJO GETS BREXIT MANDATE WITH A UNITED BLUE ENGLAND

12/14/2019

Blue-Collar Conservatism in Britain?
Oliver Wiseman, City Journal

THEODORE DALRYMPLE
No Final Victories
Musings on the recent British elections

From Disraeli to Johnson, ‘one-nation’ conservatism wins again in Britain
Michael Barone | Washington Examiner

Boris Johnson's Historic Mandate for Brexit
Editorial of The New York Sun | December 13, 2019
https://www.nysun.com/editorials/boris-johnsons-historic-mandate-for-brexit/90940/
It's hard to overstate how wonderful is the news that Prime Minister Boris Johnson has won a mandate to, after all these years of struggle, lead a restoration of British sovereignty and independence. We may have been in that fight from the early days, but we don't mind saying that we've had moments of doubt, particularly during the past year, that Britain would prevail. All the sweeter the results being tallied this evening.
Continue Reading

Brexit will be no walk in the park for Boris Johnson
Desmond Lachman | The Hill
This week, Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party trounced the Labour Party and won a commanding parliamentary majority in the UK election. Johnson’s comfortable victory will allow him to secure early passage of the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement that he negotiated last October. But that will only set the stage for the UK to enter into a one-year transitional period with its European partners to conduct the much more difficult phase of negotiating a permanent EU-UK economic relationship. It would be an understatement to say that the UK economy can ill afford another year of uncertainty as to whether the country might crash out of Europe, yet that is what Johnson has delivered.

Four Lessons a Post-Brexit Britain Can Learn from Israel
By Rafael Castro, December 19, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: A post-Brexit scenario requires long-term strategic thinking by the British establishment. The parallels between the situation of Israel in the Middle East and the eventual position of Britain vis-à-vis a federal European state offer lessons and suggest opportunities. If Britain acts on these lessons, it is more likely to flourish despite the economic and political pressure European leaders may try to exert on it in Brexit’s wake.
Continue to full article ->

Britain Enters A Long Overdue Neo-Disraelian Moment Huzzah! Says Our Brexit Diarist on Beaconsfield’s Birthday
By STEPHEN MacLEAN, Special to the Sun | December 22, 2019
https://www.nysun.com/foreign/britain-enters-a-long-overdue-neo-disraelian/90954/
As 2019 winds to a close, let us remark on how our year of turmoil and drama has brought us to a neo-Disraelian moment. You may say that's all too convenient a comment from a scribe who for years has been blogging under the rubric of the Disraeli-Macdonald Institute. But there you have it. It's not the first time that the sun has, in quite this way, lit up the meadows of the United Kingdom.
Continue

LIBYAN WARLORD MUST CONSOLIDATE AGAINST PUTIN AND THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD

12/14/2019

Libya: Russian Mercenaries Spearheading Battle For Tripoli.
A senior official in Libya's UN backed government says that Russian mercenaries backing rival leader Khalifa Hifter are spearheading the battle for Tripoli. An estimated 1000 Russian fighters, thought to be from the Wagner group are suspected to have arrived since September. The divided conflict in Libya has drawn other countries in, with the UAE and Egypt supporting Hifter, and Turkey supporting the UN backed government in Tripoli. Russia and Hifter have denied that there are mercenaries fighting in Tripoli. South China Morning Post Washington Post

Syria: Air Defense Intercepts Israeli Missiles. Syria’s army air defense on Sunday intercepted four cruise missiles, launched from Israel, aimed at targets on the outskirts Damascus. “Four cruise missiles were believed to have been launched across the coast through Lebanese airspace toward Syria,” said a source in the regional alliance. In recent years, Israel has launched hundreds of missiles aimed at Iranian-backed militias in the country as well as supplies provided by pro-Iranian Lebanese Hezbollah to support Assad’s forces. Reuters The New York Times

Libyan warlord launches 'final battle' for Tripoli
Libyan warlord Khalifa Hifter on Thursday ordered his forces to advance on Tripoli in a “final battle” for the capital. “Today we announce the decisive battle and the advancement toward the heart of the capital to set it free,” Hifter said in a televised speech. “Advance now, our heroes.” Hifter’s self-proclaimed Libyan National Army launched its offensive against the UN-recognized Government of National Accord in April, with support from the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Russia. The assault has drawn international condemnation but little action except from Turkey, which has offered to send troops if Tripoli asks.
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middleeasteye.net

Straightening Out Russian Foreign Policy
By Emil Avdaliani, December 15, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Russian foreign policy since the mid-2000s tends to be perceived in contradictory terms: as either a negative for Russia or the product of a grand strategic vision on the part of the Russian leadership. It is also often falsely perceived as representing a break with the past. Moscow’s foreign policy moves need to be viewed with a balanced perspective and should be placed in their historical context.
Continue to full article -

Egypt flexes its muscles in the Mediterranean after Libyan-Turkish agreement
Egypt has conducted extensive military drills in the Mediterranean in a clear response to and a show of strength against the maritime agreement between the Libyan Government of National Accord and Turkey.

Tripoli accepts Turkish offer of military help against Libyan warlord
The UN-recognized Libyan government in Tripoli said Thursday it had ratified a security and military accord with Turkey, which has offered to send troops to resist warlord Khalifa Hifter's months-long assault on the capital. In turn Hifter today gave militias defending Tripoli three days to pull out or their hometown of Misrata would be bombed “every day, non stop and in an unprecedentedly intensive way.” He has previously vowed to attack Turkish forces in Libya.
Separately, Pope Francis called Thursday for the closure of Libyan detention camps, where migrants are suffering from torture and slavery. “How can we fail to hear the cry of so many brothers and sisters who prefer to face a tempestuous sea rather than die slowly in Libyan detention camps, places of torture and ignoble slavery?” he said.
Read More 

TEAM TRUMP BUSTS THROUGH INF WALL, PUTS XI AND PUTIN ON NOTICE & CHINA PURSUES REGIONAL WAR AGAINST THE US IN THE CARIBBEAN

12/13/2019

Could Turkey bar US military from Incirlik air base?
Faced with the resurging threat of sanctions in the US Congress, Ankara has brandished another trump card, warning that the US military could lose access to two key bases in Turkey.

US Busts INF Wall With Ballistic Missile, Puts Putin & Xi On Notice
The Pentagon’s second test of a previously-banned missile went as planned today, with the US upping its game from a cruise missile to a ballistic missile.

KURDS FEAR CONSTITUTIONAL REVIEW

12/8/2019

ASIA TIMES

MODI MOVES AGAINST GHANDI'S PARTY

12/7/2019

Cleo Paskal, non-resident senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, recounts the history of when millions fled India to g0 to Pakistan & Bangladesh. The question of “who is Indian, and how long has s/he been in India?” has been going on for decades and become important. Many economic migrants into India; Supreme Court demanded a national registration of citizens, esp far only in Assam. Note that a lot of Hindus had fled Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Afghanistan out of fear, yet weren’t easily accepted as Indian. However, if you arrive before December 2014 and you’re Buddhist, Christian, Hindu or Jain, we’ll accept you as religious refugees. It's all very messy. You needed to have arrived before March 1971 in order to _____. Left-wingers, Muslims and Assamese, all are unhappy; the Assamese, with the 20-30% population increase in the last decades.
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/12/16/21024306/india-protests-muslim-citizenship-amendment-bill

INDIA'S ECONOMY GOES DOWN

India: Leaders Meet in Washington. The second 2+2 meeting between leaders from Indian and the United States concluded late Wednesday. The leaders discussed several topics to include increasing defense cooperation and trade. "Our defense relationship is strong, and since the establishment of the 2+2 ministerial last year, it continues to improve," Secretary of Defense Mark Esper said. U.S. Department of Defense Hindustan Times MarketWatch

India: Protests Continue to Sweep the Country. Protests over the new citizenship law continued through India on Thursday. The government has shutdown the internet, blocked roads, and arrested hundreds to include Ramachandra Guha, a prominent critic of the law and biographer of Gandhi. “Our protest is totally nonviolent,’’ Guha said to reporters. “See what is happening. You see we are totally peaceful. Did you see any violence?’’ Three people have been killed during protests so far.
The New York Times

SUDAN'S AND ALGERIA'S ABORTIVE ARAB SPRING CONTINUES & LATIN AMERICA STAGNATES AGAIN

11/28/2019

Algeria’s de facto ruler, Gen. Ahmed Gaïd Salah, who this year managed the ouster of one president and the ascent of another amid deep civil unrest, died on Monday, according to the state news agency and Algerian press reports. – New York Times

Algeria: New president, old regime
Protesters in Algeria rejected the presidential election and its victor, Abdelmadjid Tebboune.

Algeria swears in new president, names new prime minister
Algeria swore in former Prime Minister Abdelmadjid Tebboune as its new president on Thursday, a week after an election marked by low-turnout and mass protests. The newly sworn-in president named Foreign Minister Sabri Boukadoum as interim prime minister and Housing Minister Kamel Beljoud as interior minister. They respectively replace Noureddine Bedoui and Salah Eddine Dahmoune, both of whom were highly unpopular with protesters. Tebboune said remaining ministers would keep assuming their responsibilities in a caretaker capacity.
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Algeria certifies presidential election results
Algeria’s constitutional council confirmed Monday that former Prime Minister Abdelmadjid Tebboune won last week's presidential election with 58% of the vote. Tebboune will be sworn in on Thursday. The election was held despite widespread public opposition that led to a low 33% turnout as monthslong protests demand an overhaul of the ruling class.
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dailymail.co.uk

Protesters disrupt Algeria’s presidential elections
Algeria held its presidential election on Thursday amid widespread public opposition to the vote. Thousands of people rallied in the capital Algiers and other cities, destroying polling stations and ballot boxes. Turnout was just over 33% two hours before polls closed, according to officials. Protesters have boycotted the election they see as a tool for ruling elites to keep their hold on the country. All five candidates in the elections are either supporters of former President Abdelaziz Bouteflika or have served under him. No results have yet been announced.
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reuters.co

Algeria answers calls for fundamental change with old guard candidates
Turnout to Algeria’s elections could be as low as 10%, and any winner is likely to be weak, unable to impose policy without compromise and negotiation.

Algeria's presidential election no one wants
After hounding longtime dictator Abdelaziz Bouteflika from office, protesters are now campaigning to stop the flawed process to replace him.

Ex-prime ministers go on trial in Algeria ahead of presidential election
The trial of two former Algerian prime ministers began on Wednesday ahead of next week's presidential election. Ahmed Ouyahia and Abdelmalek Sellal appeared in court in Algiers. Their trial is the first since authorities launched a crackdown on corruption targeting several former officials and well-connected businessmen following President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s resignation in April. Weekly anti-regime demonstrations continue, with Algerians demanding that the Dec. 12 presidential elections be delayed until more of the ruling elite steps down.
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apnews.com

Sudan: Government Fulfills Two Demands. Sudan announced Friday that it has satisfied two demands made by pro-democracy protesters. The government overturned a moral policing law that criminalized some women’s clothing and the consumption of alcohol. It also disbanded the party of former President Omar al-Bashir who ruled the country for three decades. Al-Bashir was overthrown as president in April and is currently on trial for corruption and money laundering with a verdict expected by December 14. Egypt Independent TIME

A new report says South Sudan’s National Security Service has recruited a force of 10,000 fighters in President Salva Kiir’s ethnic stronghold, in apparent breach of the terms of the country’s peace deal. – Associated Press

Samuel Ramani writes: Through a synthesis of targeted diplomatic outreach, economic and security incentives, and soft-power-building efforts, Russia has preserved its leverage in Sudan during a year of severe political turmoil. Due to Sudan’s strategic location on the Red Sea and long history of aligning with Russia on diplomatic crises ranging from the annexation of Crimea to the Syrian civil war, Russia has a vested interest in the country’s political future and will try to shape the course of its transition to democracy in the months to come. – Middle East Institute

"In 60 Seconds" video, Roger Noriega assesses the threat democracy faces in the region and concludes that Latin America's leftists want power by any means necessary. Watch it here.

Following the withdrawal of police support for Bolivian President Evo Morales, demonstrations have swept the country. In a National Review op-ed, Ryan Berg writes that while many in Bolivia defend Morales' socialist success, Morales leaves a dismal legacy of beaten and battered democratic institutions. Read more here.

As protests in Chile continue to engulf the country, Ryan Berg and Andrés Martínez-Fernández took to the pages of The Hill to explain that with Chile being one of the most politically stable and prosperous countries in Latin America, Chileans would be wise to avoid sweeping changes to the country’s successful political and economic model in its upcoming constitutional convention. Continue here.

SUICIDE-MURDER PACT ROCKS TURKISH POLITICAL ECONOMY

11/26/2019

Copycat murder-suicides distress Turkey
Three separate Turkish families committed suicide by taking cyanide in the first two weeks of November, and despite the government's denials, economic hardship seemed to play a key role in all three cases that shook the country.

Russia, Turkey plugging away at Syria's northeast, Idlib
Amid complications with Turkey, Russia claims it stays the course in Syria.

Peering into crystal ball; future of war
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salafi-jihadi-ecosystem-in-the-sahel.pdf
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BEYOND COUNTER-TERRORISM

HOW THE SALIFI-JIHADI MOVEMENT IS WINNING

beyond-counterterrorism.pdf
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road-to-the-caliphate-onepager.pdf
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road-to-the-caliphate.pdf
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rpt-fp-zimmerman_americas-real-enemy-online.pdf
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salafi-threat-onepager-final.pdf
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POD CAST/LECTURE

ISRAELI NEWS NETWORK

IRAN FOCUS.COM

WASHINGTON INSTITUTE NEAR EAST POLICY

STRATEGY BRIDGE

HOW TO DEFEAT THE ISLAMIC STATE & AFFILIATES

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