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GLOBAL STRIKE MEDIA.COM 
NORTH AMERICA 

TURKEY INVADES IRAQI KURDISTAN

6/17/2020

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Turkey entrenches further into Libya as rivals strike back
Turkey’s government has signaled that its military intervention on the side of Libya’s internationally recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) will deepen, part of a broader campaign to assert dominance in the gas-rich eastern Mediterranean and to bolster flagging support at home.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s communications office announced via Twitter late Sunday that Libya’s largest airbase, Al Jufra, and the coastal city of Sirte will be among its next targets. Both are controlled by the GNA’s Libyan National Army (LNA) foes led by the eastern warlord Khalifa Hifter.
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Turkey launches ground incursion into Iraqi Kurdistan 
Turkey sent ground forces into the Kurdistan Region of Iraq today to attack suspected Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) targets. The operation is in the Haftanin area near the Turkish border. The ground operation follows Turkish bombings of suspected PKK targets across Iraq on Monday. Turkey has used ground troops before and has military bases in the area. Many locals and the Iraqi federal government have condemned the attacks. 
Read More  
rudaw.net
US sanctions on Syria go into effect 
A new wave of US sanctions on Syria goes into effect today as part of efforts to push the Syrian government into UN-led negotiations to end the nine-year war. “Our aim is to deprive the Assad regime of the revenue and the support it has used to commit the large-scale atrocities and human rights violations that prevent a political resolution and severely diminish the prospects for peace,” US Ambassador to the UN Kelly Craft told the Security Council on Tuesday. The Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act sanctions anyone who provides support to the Syrian government’s military operations or does business with Syria’s military, energy, construction and engineering sectors. Syria is reeling from an economic crisis, while rare anti-government protests are ongoing in the south. 
Read More  
reuters.com
Seth J. Frantzman writes: The US and Iran might find themselves on the same side in Libya via Turkey. It all hinges on Cairo now. If Cairo has a military footprint in Libya it can do what Turkey has successfully done and leverage it for concessions. For now Egypt must watch and contemplate the next step. Everyone is also looking to Washington to do more than just hint that it supports both Egypt’s ceasefire proposal and Ankara’s approach. What happens next will also affect Washington’s other allies, in Jerusalem and Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. – Jerusalem Post
Blaise Misztal is a fellow at Hudson Institute. His research program focuses on the Middle East, Europe, and strategic competition. Most recently, Misztal served as the Executive Director of the Task Force on Extremism in Fragile States, a congressionally mandated project convened by the U.S. Institute of Peace. Prior to that, he was director of the Bipartisan Policy Center’s national security program.
Relevant articles:

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https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-turkey-shunned-russian-gas-its-companies-amassed-debt-11592216429
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https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/irans-zarif-went-to-turkey-to-push-close-relations-631517
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https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/turkish-plan-to-invade-greece-leaked-in-secret-reveal-report-631641
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https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/06/18/world/middleeast/18reuters-turkey-blast.html
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https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/06/turkey-strikes-pkk-kurdistan-iraq-sinjar-erdogan-hdp-akp.html
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RED SEA, AFRICAN HORN CHALLENGES:  LIBYA DISINTEGRATES

6/2/2020

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Russia’s ally in Libya is battered by defeats. But Moscow has wider goals to expand its influence.
How Russia made Hemeimeem air base its African hub
The satellite images published on May 26 by AFRICOM appear to confirm reports that Russian MiG-29 jet fighters had flown to Libya. In fact, the MiG-29s travelled to Libya via Russia's Hemeimeem air base in Syria, and as this latest episode makes clear, Hemeimeem plays a central role in Russia’s growing involvement in both the Mediterranean and Africa.
Read Article
Spring 2020 Issue Middle East Journal 
​The Congella Power Station completed in 1928 was one of the first power plants built and owned by Eskom.

Gregory Copley, Defense and Foreign Affairs; in re: The South Africa Act 1909 amalgamated the four previously separate British colonies: Cape Colony, Colony of Natal, Transvaal Colony, and Orange River Colony.  A 1960 referendum  legitimized the country becoming the Republic of South Africa. On 27 April 1994, after decades of armed struggle, terrorism and international opposition to Apartheid, a deeply cruel anti-Black system invented and instituted by the Boers,  the African National Congress (ANC) achieved victory in the country's first democratic election. Since then, the African National Congress has governed South Africa, in an alliance with the South African Communist Party and the Congress of South African Trade Unions.

The economy of South Africa is the second largest in Africa, after Nigeria. At present, South Africa has an extreme and persistent high unemployment rate of over 25%, which interacts with other socioeconomic problems such as: inadequate education, poor health and high levels of crime.

The ANC, home to the most distinguished revolutionaries of the Twentieth Century, was long seen as the saviour of the entire society.  As it now stands, it looks as though the ANC has failed; that much-publicized criminality at high levels seems to have looted the state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to such a degree that the entire country might break into separate divisions. How this might occur is discussed in the segment.
..  ..  ..  
With salutations to Johnnie Mfanafuthi Makatini (1932-1988

US B-1 bomber drills aim at China, Russia  By Stephen Bryan
In three major military operations, the US used B-1 bombers in missions aimed at Chinese fortified reefs and islands in the South China Sea, a strategic foray into the Okhotsk Sea aimed at Russia and a Black Sea mission that involved elements of Ukraine’s Air Force.
 Read More
Trump’s China policy at a cul-de-sac  By MK Bhadrakumar
This past week has been a catastrophic seven days that shook America. Some of the debris may have fallen on President Donald Trump. Most importantly, the Trump administration has lost the plot on China.
 Read More
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INDIA VS. CHINA AT THE BORDER

6/2/2020

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Cleo Paskal, non-resident senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, @CleoPaskal, in re: Eastern Ladakh, China invades India.  China normally does fur steps forward, three steps back; but India [no longer is playing].  India has banned 59 Chinese apps: turns out they're espionage devised to monitor location, payment, et al. Can be used for blackmail and industrial espionage. Also China needs metadata for its military AI development. Effect is economic really huge: banned TikTok, removing $6 billion valuation, and=s well as allows development in India. Very smart and quick!  It'd be excellent if the US did the same thing, which it’s contemplating.  China doesn’t let Facebook or even Wikipedia into China.  . . . Decoupling the US and China—get the Chinese out of our society. 
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tiktok-pompeo-united-states-weighing-ban-chinese-social-media-apps/

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/internet/us-mulling-tiktok-ban-indias-digital-strike-to-hurt-more-than-what-china-expected/videoshow/76838104.cms 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tiktok-pompeo-united-states-weighing-ban-chinese-social-media-apps/

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/internet/us-mulling-tiktok-ban-indias-digital-strike-to-hurt-more-than-what-china-expected/videoshow/76838104.cms
India’s Pangong Pickle: New Delhi’s Options After Its Clash with China by Christopher Clary and Vipin Narang
https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/pakistani-troop-movement-in-ladakh-sources-say-china-in-talks-with-pak-terror-groups-1695712-2020-07-01
From India’s Himalayan Border to Our Local Cell Networks, It’s Time to Push Back Against China
INDIA:
India’s Submarines Make Strategic Move to Dominate Indian Ocean

By H I Sutton, Forbes: “The most visible aspect of India’s programs are new nuclear-powered submarines that are being built, but beneath the surface there are other strategic steps to help ensure its Navy’s dominance of the Indian Ocean."
China’s Strategic Assessment of the Ladakh Clash by Yun Sun
Revelations about Russia’s Nuclear Deterrence Policy by Cynthia Robert
Here's a brief history of the disputed border, from the Times
Don't Believe the China Hype // Michael Schuman, The Atlantic: When it comes to assessing Chinese power, things aren't always as they seem.
Al jazeera BBC CNN
China’s Skirmish With India Is Only Its Latest Aggression During the Pandemic
Thomas Joscelyn — The Dispatch
China and India have quarreled over their border for nearly six decades. But Monday was the deadliest day in their dispute since 1975. At least 20 Indian soldiers were killed when a skirmish broke out in the Galwan river valley in the remote Ladakh region of the Himalayas. Tensions had been mounting for weeks, with President Trump offering to mediate the dispute in late May. (Neither side took him up on the offer.) The Indian government previously warned that the People’s Republic of China (PRC), ruled by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), has sent thousands of troops into the area since the beginning of the year. Naturally, the CCP accuses India of being the provocateur. Read More
James Stavridis writes: The U.S. has limited capital to engage in this particular dispute. Although President Donald Trump offered to mediate in a recent tweet, the chances of China accepting such assistance are negligible. A better approach is for the U.S. to continue moving closer to India, making it clear to Beijing that it will not allow New Delhi to be pressured out of greater alignment with Washington. – Bloomberg
​

Arif Rafiq writes: Indian officials often speak of a two-front war with China and Pakistan. […]China’s ingresses along the LAC provide an opportunity for both India and the United States to assess the second-order effects of their policies in South Asia. That reassessment must begin with Kashmir. – The National Interest 
Aparna Pande writes: The crisis unleashed by the coronavirus pandemic will almost definitely create a new global order, and India could emerge stronger. But for that, Indians will have to shed the complacency that comes from believing that the nation’s long history makes its rise inevitable.[…] To appeal to neighbours, counter rivals, and bolster alliances, India needs to be economically strong with a rising GDP and a skilled labour force, while welcoming foreign investment and less government regulations. – Hudson Institute
Is courting India a waste of time?
Derek Scissors | AEIdeas
The wisest course for managing international agreements is ruthless pragmatism, a tonic antidote to the empty internationalism that sustained Open Skies.  Learn more here.
A flare-up in a long-running border dispute between China and India has raised the temperature in their bilateral relationship. Yet it may be just as significant for the trilateral US-China-India relationship, points out Hal Brands in a Bloomberg op-ed. As the US-China rivalry goes global, India may be the only nonaligned country that can make a major difference in the balance of influence and advantage. The good news is that India and the US have a great deal to gain if they can hold the line against China — and much to lose if they cannot. Continue here.
Last month saw several face-offs between the Indian Army and China’s People’s Liberation Army along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), their long-disputed shared border, high in the Himalayas. While the entanglement in North Sikkim was resolved locally, within the framework of mutually agreed-upon protocols, the ones in Eastern Ladakh have lingered, giving rise to speculation about China’s intentions. – CNN ​
Archana Chaudhary writes: India must be careful how far it pushes. The government changed rules to allow hydroxychloroquine exports to the U.S. at Trump’s request last month, yet two-thirds of India’s bulk drugs and drug intermediates come from China. There are similar levels of dependency from electronics to auto parts. Chinese investments of more than $8 billion have been made in India, mostly in finance and technology startups. – Bloomberg
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/27/china-and-india-move-troops-as-border-tensions-escalate
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/us-ready-to-mediate-india-china-border-stand-off-trump/articleshow/76036991.cm
Fang-Yu Chen, Austin Wang, Charles K.S. Wu and Yao-Yuan Yeh write: Thus, it is incorrect to describe Tsai as either pro-status quo or pro-independence. Some scholars argue that Tsai’s pro-sovereignty mindset and policies, which have been seen as a direction of seeking independence by China, should be described as a form of “anti-annexation.” This is by far the best and most accurate approach to describe Tsai’s stance on cross-Strait relations. – The National Interest
Seth Cropsey writes: Since learning the danger of allowing powerful U.S. and allied forces to gather and strike from nearby waters and land in the two Gulf Wars, our potential foes continue to adapt using cyber, space, grey zone tactics, lawfare and compromised 5G technology, a widening spectrum that leads to an unlimited expansion of the battlefield. To assure its dominance, the U.S. must lead in all. The technological means to do so in grey zone tactics, particularly in ISRT, is one category where our advantage is established. We should use it to the hilt. – The HIll
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THE TSAR VS. THE OTTOMANS IN LIBYA

6/2/2020

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Libya is Now the Middle East's Most Important Proxy War  by Seth Frantzman
The Spectator
May 20, 2020

https://www.meforum.org/60969/libya-is-now-middle-easts-most-important-proxy-wa
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INDIA'S ISLAMIC TERROR GROWING FAST, WHILE INDIA KILLS KASHMIRI TERRORIST

5/4/2020

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In one month, the US and Iraq will begin strategic dialogue that addresses the US’s future presence in Baghdad. In a RealClearDefense op-ed, Michael Rubin argues that despite President Trump’s frustrations with the expense of the US presence in Iraq, abandoning Baghdad will backfire for both Iraq and US strategic interests. Repeating the precipitous withdrawals in Iraq that Trump ordered in Syria and Afghanistan will empower Iran and undercut the most competent leadership team postwar Iraq has had.  Read here.

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has been under stress for some time. What spells the end of the organization is more benign, yet widely disliked — taxes. Saudi Arabia’s decision to increase its value-added tax by 300 percent means there is now no chance for Gulf economic integration and policy coordination, notes Karen E. Young in an Al-Monitor op-ed. For the GCC, its efficacy and usefulness as an engine of collective growth and mutual interests is probably over.  Learn more here.

Turkey’s Reccep Tayyip Erdoğan is an autocrat who seeks to monopolize power and change the principles on which Turkish society operates. Michael Rubin took to the National Interest to assess Ankara’s behavior. He notes that optimists hope that Erdoğan’s defeat in Istanbul last year signals that Turks can reclaim their country and that democracy can still check Erdoğan’s desire to rule for life. But the lesson Erdoğan appears to have taken is not that he must listen to the people, but rather, he must punish Istanbul and become more ruthless in weeding out political opposition. Finish here.
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India: Top Kashmir Rebel Leader Killed.  Indian soldiers killed Riyaz Naikoo the leader of the Kashmiri separatist group Hizbul Mujahideen.  The operation took place in the Indian controlled part of southern Kashmir after the Indian Army received tips that the Naikoo was hiding out in the area.  “He was trapped in a house and early today a gun battle took place during which he and his associate were killed,” said Kashmir region’s inspector general of police Vijay Kumar.  The Indian government shut down the internet in Kashmir the following day to avoid large gatherings of protesters in support of Naikoo and the Kashmir separatist movement.  Al Jazeera BBC The New York Times
We Ignore Tablighi Jamaat at Our Peril
by Abhinav Pandya and Sam Westrop
Sunday Guardian (India)
May 3, 2020

https://www.meforum.org/islamist-watch/60816/we-ignore-tablighi-jamaat-at-our-peril
Taliban suicide attack kills 5 Afghan civilians; condemns maternity clinic attack
(The Associated Press) A suicide bombing in Afghanistan’s eastern Paktia province on Thursday that looked to target a military compound but exploded before its destination killed five civilians and wounded at least 29 others, including civilians and military personnel, Afghan officials said.
 
  US military support In Sahel: Allies at work
(Breaking Defense) A few months ago Defense Secretary Mark Esper announced a broad review to recalibrate the overall US military posture overseas and align spending as best as possible with the National Defense Strategy priorities – forces to compete with Russia and China.
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RUSSIA, CHINA PROLIFERATE TO NORTH KOREA'S HEREDITARY DYNASTY & TURKEY'S NEW NIGHTMARE; PAKISTAN SHIFTS ALLIANCES

5/2/2020

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Report: Child soldiers deployed to Libya by Turkish-backed Syrian National Army
 An exclusive report, citing sources on the ground in Syria and Libya, says Syrian teenagers are being sent to Libya to take part in the civil war there.
Putin is Betting on a Losing Horse (As In Iran)
By Alireza Nader, The National Interest: "The Russian-Iranian alliance, a defining feature of power politics in the Middle East, is experiencing strains that should be exploited by the Trump administration."
U.S., ASIA:
Will Vietnam Lease Cam Ranh Bay to the U.S.?

By Carl Thayer, The Diplomat: "Rumors are circulating that Vietnam is considering leasing Cam Ranh Bay or some of its islands in the South China Sea to the United States on a long-term basis as a supply base and/or stop over point as a counter to recent aggressiveness in the South China Sea."​

Trump Should Not Fall for Erdogan’s S-400 Gambit
By Aykan Erdemir & Luc Sasseville, War on the Rocks: "On April 20, Turkey made public its decision to postpone the planned April activation of the S-400 air defense system it received from Russia last July, citing delays related to the COVID-19 outbreak. Erdogan’s latest move results from his growing desperation to secure Western financing amid a pandemic-induced economic crisis, and is part of a broader charm offensive to convince Trump to grant Ankara a financial lifeline in the form of a swap deal with the U.S. Federal Reserve."
An internal report presented by China's Ministry of State Security warned that global anti-China sentiment is at its highest since the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown.
 
The more we learn about the origins of the coronavirus, the more compelling the case against China grows. In an op-ed for the Hoover Institution, John Yoo and Robert J. Delahunty argue the world must create incentives for China that will force it to improve its behavior. That may well demand harsh measures that will force China to experience the full costs of its recklessness, but without such incentives, China may inflict this kind of tragedy on the world again.
 Read it here.
It’s time to be more strategic about trade with China. In an American Interest op-ed, Gary Schmitt and Craig Kennedy argue that although China is indeed a bad actor, it is also a global economic power from whom we cannot simply file for divorce. That said, Washington should develop a mechanism for ensuring that the US is not dependent on strategic goods “made in China.” What is needed is a Committee on Foreign Imports to the United States (CFIUS) — a CFIUS 2.0 Continue here.
A Lowy Institute scholar recently argued that lifting sanctions on Iran could both ease tensions in the Middle East and win favor among Iranians. But he is wrong on both counts, argues Michael Rubin in an op-ed for The Australian. The greatest reason sanctions relief does not help Iranians is Khatam al-Anbiya, the economic wing of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that controls almost 40 percent of Iran’s economy. Simply put, Iran has ample resources to better the lives of its citizenry. To lift sanctions, however, would incentivize not only Iran but also every other dictatorship to point a gun at the heads of their citizenry and demand cash from the West. Continue here.

A political battle is raging in Iraq over the selection of a new prime minister. In a RealClearWorld op-ed, Kenneth Pollack assesses the appointment of Mustafa al-Kadhimi, an Iraqi nationalist selected with the task of forming a government, and concludes that if there were ever a moment to build a strong independent Iraq, the time is now. Mustafa Kadhimi may be the last, best hope to begin moving Iraq in a better direction. Shouldn’t we help him help us? Read here.

After having lied about Turkey’s immunity to the coronavirus crisis in its initial weeks, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his advisers now seek to deflect blame and attention elsewhere. While some US diplomats have drunk Erdoğan’s Kool-Aid, Erdoğan’s decision to respond to the crisis by furthering his crackdown shows that the problem is the Turkish leader, not us, argues Michael Rubin in a Washington Examiner op-ed. The US government should take no action that endorses, embraces, or enables Erdoğan’s continued leadership in Turkey. Read more here.
Iran's Satraps in Lebanon Face Crisis by Jonathan Spyer
The Jerusalem Post
April 30, 2020

https://www.meforum.org/60811/lebanons-iranian-implanted-deep-state-out-of-options
Hereditary dictatorships rarely last past three generations, writes Oriana Skylar Mastro, and collapse may be in the cards for North Korea.
READ MORE
China has no reason to make a deal on nuclear weapons  
Hal Brands | Bloomberg Opinion
Intel: US Syria envoy says Turkey must put pressure on Idlib militants
Turkey should keep up the pressure on the hard-line Islamist group in control of Syria’s embattled Idlib province, the US special envoy for Syria said today.
​Extremist Syrian rebel group tests Turkey's limits in Idlib
Jihadi forces resisting the reopening of the key M4 highway in Idlib are squeezed between Turkey’s amity and military might, but Turkey itself is not without dilemmas.
Intel: US doubles down on Turkey S-400 sanctions threats
 The Donald Trump administration has doubled down on threats to sanction Turkey should it activate the Russian S-400 missile defense system.
Facing the probability that Russia and China are set to sell conventional arms to Iran this October, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is preparing a legal argument to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to extend the arms embargo stipulated in UN Resolution 2231. While President Donald Trump withdrew from the political aspect of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the US remains a legal participant in the latter resolution. However, the Trump administration’s approach prioritizes short-term gains and sacrifices long-term returns in the US’s ability to work in the UNSC. AEI’s Gary Schmitt argues that extending the arms embargo on Iran is a case of high-stakes poker. The bet here is that our European allies will reluctantly fold in favor of an extension, fearing Secretary Pompeo will go “all in” with a snapback of sanctions.

Since the US unilaterally pulled out of the JCPOA in 2018, Iran has violated the deal’s restrictions: increasing its stockpile of enriched uranium, putting it in reach of producing a nuclear weapon; using aid money to finance proxy-terror operations in Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen; and continuing funding for a Revolutionary Guards–dominated economy that fuels corruption and oppression of Iranians. Last week, Iran launched its first military satellite into orbit, marking a military program that foreshadows its development of intercontinental ballistic missiles. The October deadline will be a fight with great implications, but how much influence is the US able to wield? Can Iran really afford to spend lavishly on weapons while still calling for relief funds to weather the pandemic?
Hal Brands argues that as US-China tensions rise, the cuts to defense spending put American defense strategy at risk. A policy of confrontation can invite disaster if undertaken without an adequate military shield. It would be ironic if the coronavirus was what finally convinced many Americans to take the challenge from China seriously — but left the nation too weak to do much about it. Read more here.
Pakistanis may soon die en masse for China’s interests, and the Pakistani government may allow it to happen. At issue is the nature of how Pakistan’s leaders have shifted their alliance partners from the United States to China. Michael Rubin took to The National Interest to argue that Pakistanis will quickly realize what a devil’s bargain their country has made. Pakistanis may recognize that China seeks not a partner, but a colonial vassal, the deaths of whose citizens it sees as wholly irrelevant. Read it here.
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THE SAHEL JIHADI ECOSYSTEM THREAT

4/24/2020

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The Challenge of Boko Haram Defectors in Chad by Bulama Bukarti
Salafi-jihadi ecosystem in the Sahel
Katherine Zimmerman | American Enterprise Institute
Interactive graphic: Salafi-jihadi ecosystem in the Sahel
Katherine Zimmerman | American Enterprise Institute
Mozambique Is Emerging As The Next Islamic Extremist Hotspot // Patrick Tucker: A terror group affiliated with the Islamic State has been stepping up tactics and claiming bigger targets.
Secretary of Defense Mark Esper has been considering drawing down US military commitments in Africa as the Pentagon rebalances toward competing more directly with Russia and China. The coronavirus pandemic and effect on Africa has delayed the expected decision over whether to cut troop numbers, close a new drone base in Niger, and end support to the French in the Sahel.

In a recent AEI report, 
Katherine Zimmerman assesses Salafi-jihadi groups in West Africa’s Sahel region and concludes that groups such as al Qaeda and the Islamic State are strengthening rapidly.

Al Qaeda– and Islamic State–linked groups have expanded from an initial insurgency in northern Mali to neighboring Burkina Faso and Niger, and they continue to grow stronger despite the array of security forces aligned against them. The threat is often forgotten in US policy circles until attacks occur like the one in Niger that killed four US servicemen in October 2017.

​Reducing US operations and the support the US provides to French and other forces in Africa would weaken the ability of US diplomats and aid workers who rely on the security US forces provide to operate, open space for global competitors, and increase instability in the region. Does the US have the adequate military strength to manage a rising China while still dealing with terrorist threats? 
AFRICA FILE: COMMON THREADS IN MALI, LIBYA, AND MOZAMBIQUE
 
READ THE LATEST EDITION HERE
 
Three failing African states took dramatic turns in the past two weeks—one toward uncertain progress and two even further from stability. The trajectories of Mali, Mozambique, and Libya will shape the African Salafi-jihadi movement and will interact with other negative trends—including destabilizing geopolitical competition—to fuel conflicts with regional and extra-regional implications.

Mali, Libya, and Mozambique demonstrate to different degrees the intersection among state fragility, geopolitical competition, and the Salafi-jihadi threat. Mali and Mozambique risk becoming hosts to disruptive rivalries like those that have prolonged and deepened Libya’s war. Collapsing governance across all three countries will help the Salafi-jihadi movement establish enduring havens that will strengthen the movement globally.

Read the full brief here. 
​

"Vicious cycles: How disruptive states and extremist movements fill power vacuums and fuel each other," Emily Estelle, August 2020.
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OBAMA'S WUHAN RESEARCH WITH CHINA

4/24/2020

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Is H. R. McMaster the New Mr. X?
By Francis P. Sempa, The Diplomat: “Comparing McMaster’s China prescriptions to George Kennan’s famous containment strategy."
https://www.amazon.com/Invention-Surgery-Medicine-Renaissance-Revolution/dp/B082XHP3YJ/ref=tmm_aud_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr=
Why US outsourced bat virus research to Wuhan
The US National Institutes of Health (NIH) funded bat-coronavirus research in the Wuhan Institute of Virology in China. Back in October 2014, the US government had placed a federal moratorium on gain-of-function (GOF) research – altering natural pathogens to make them more deadly and infectious – as a result of rising fears about a possible pandemic caused by an accidental or deliberate release of these genetically engineered monster germs.
 Read More
Why Beijing must change before it’s too late
The Covid-19 pandemic is really a consequence, not a cause, of the geopolitical confrontation between the United States and China. Had there been mutual trust and good bilateral relations, Beijing might have been less defensive about the early outbreak of the disease, the US might have better understood the spread of the virus out of Wuhan and the global damage of the deadly flu might have been better contained.
 Read More
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IRANIAN TERROR MASTER VISITS IRAQ; AL-MONITOR COVERS SYRIAN RUSSIAN TIES

4/20/2020

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The Quds Force Commander's Visit to Iraq
By Dr. Doron Itzchakov, April 16, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The recent visit to Iraq by the new Quds Force commander, Esmail Qaani, had several purposes: to display the continuity of Tehran’s involvement in the country, to rally the Shiite factions against the formation of a pro-US government by Adnan Zurfi, and to enable Qaani to stake a claim as a worthy successor to Qassem Soleimani. Yet Zurfi’s abdication and his replacement by Mustafa Kadhimi does not necessarily constitute an Iranian achievement because of Kadhimi’s diverse political associations and ties across the Middle East and the international arena.

Continue to full article ->
Why Russia’s grip on Syrian military is weaker than it seems
 Russia’s attempts to centralize the command of numerous pro-Assad militias operating in Syria have been a mixed bag, to say the least.
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THE WORLD AFTER COVID

4/20/2020

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Thoughts about the shape of things to come in the post-pandemic world
Nicholas Eberstadt | National Bureau for Asian Research
The COVID-19 pandemic has precipitated the deepest and most fundamental crisis for Pax Americana that this set of global economic and security arrangements has faced in the past three postwar generations.
COVID-19 took away public education. Will we miss it?
Frederick M. Hess | National Review
Schools have a dual mission: social and academic. Distance learning is a shoddy stopgap for addressing, at best, one-half of that mandate.
From the new edition of National Affairs: The erosion of deep literacy
Adam Garfinkle | National Affairs
China’s gross domestic product falls at a double-digit rate  
Derek Scissors | AEIdeas
What’s Left of) Our Economy: Not All CCP Virus Lessons are Created Equal
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MODI'S PARTY IN INDIA BULLY'S LARGEST MUSLIM PROVENCE

4/17/2020

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CHINA TESTS NUKES IN ITS INTERIOR & ORTEGA DISAPPEARS

4/16/2020

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Possible Chinese Nuclear Testing Stirs U.S. Concern
By Gordon Lubold, The Wall Street Journal: “China might be secretly conducting nuclear tests with very low explosive power despite Beijing's assertions that it is strictly adhering to an international accord banning all nuclear tests, according to a new arms-control report to be made public by the State Department."
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HOW TURKEY SCREWS THE US:  RUSSIAN TRIANGULATION AND THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD

4/16/2020

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Turkey’s intervention in Libya turns tide to Erdogan’s advantage, for now
 Ankara has thrown in its lot with the Government of National Accord for reasons that have more to do with its own interests than Libya’s.
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Turkey and Pakistan: a special relationship?
Gulf of Guinea: stepping up to the maritime-security challenge?
Turkey, the S-400 and the F-35
Turkey Is Building a Geopolitical Alliance Between Sunni and Shiite Islamists
Turkey: Erdoğan's Post-Corona, Existential Economic Challenge by Burak Bekdil
The Gatestone Institute
April 15, 2020

https://www.meforum.org/60694/erdogans-post-corona-economic-challenge
​Why Is Turkey Embracing Hamas?  by Khaled Abu Toameh  • 
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AFRICOM HITS BIG TARGET & ISIS IN AFGHANISTAN CAUGHT

4/8/2020

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Leak Reveals Jihadists’ Weakening Grip in Syria’s Idlib by Sam Heller
Counter-Terrorism in East Africa: The Death of Yusuf Jiis with Christoper Anzalone
AFRICOM kills ‘foundational’ Shabaab leader in strike
AFRICOM has stepped up its air campaign against Shabaab since the beginning of the year, targeting the group 33 times.

​Generation Jihad: Ep. 4 – ISIS: A History of the Caliphate​
Hosts Tom Joscelyn and Bill Roggio discuss the rise of ISIS and how the idea of building a caliphate in Iraq evolved over time. Bill witnessed the jihadists' earliest state-building efforts during multiple embeds in Iraq.
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PUTIN THE RUSSIAN TSAR:  INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF RUSSIA EXAMINES PUTIN'S ROLE

4/7/2020

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Don’t Forget the Historical Context of Russo-Turkish Competition with Jeffrey Mankoff
RUSSIA:
Sukhoi to Deliver Stealth Fighter Su-57 This Year

By Franz-Stefan Gady, The Diplomat: "Sukhoi Corporation aims to start deliveries of its Su-57 fighter aircraft, Russia’s first purported indigenously designed and built fifth-generation stealth fighter, to the Russian Aerospace Forces in 2020."
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Five Patterns of the Putin Regime
On March 26, IMR launched the “Russia under Putin” project, which includes a timeline of the country’s key political developments over the last 20 years. This factual digest serves not only to refresh one’s memory but also to retrace the Putin regime’s evolution and its modus operandi. IMR’s Olga Khvostunova highlights the key patterns of this regime and explains what they mean. ≫
DOWNLOAD THE REPORT
Putin’s Rules
In March, Russia’s Constitutional Court approved the proposed amendments to the Constitution, clearing the way for Vladimir Putin to stay in power beyond 2024, with the upcoming referendum likely being a mere formality. The swiftness of the process signals that legitimacy through adherence to formal rules no longer matters to Putin, and, perhaps, never did. ≫
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GREGORY COPLEY EDITOR/PUBLISHER DEFENSE AND FOREIGN AFFAIRS ON IRAN: TURKEY & RUSSIA, STILL FRENEMIES

3/29/2020

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Stealth is something that Iran just doesn’t do. In fact, capable and domestically-produced military planes are also something they don’t do. Is the Shafaq a truly new creation? That’s extremely unlikely. Is it stealthy? Also unlikely. Chances are the Shafaq charade is a rebadged Russian Yak-130. Still, if it could ever enter serial production, it could be a decent trainer airframe. – The National Interest  ​
Pavel Luzin writes: Where Russia is really trying to improve its military space capabilities is in the following: opportunities for jamming and radio intelligence; sustainability of its command, control and communication systems; and the offensive capabilities against ground-based space infrastructure. The goal here is to prevent its adversaries from using of their space-related infrastructure. – Defense News
David Albright and Sarah Burkhard write: Apparently, the IAEA and Western governments did not know about this facility prior to the seizure of the Nuclear Archive. The site’s secrecy and documented involvement of Groups 5 and 7 of the Amad Plan suggest that Iran was not intending to declare this site to the IAEA, unless discovered, such as was the case with the Natanz enrichment plant and the Gchine uranium mine. – Institute for Science and International Security
Institute for the Study of War’s Katherine Lawlor and Brandon Wallace: Iran's proxies accelerate Soleimani's campaign to compel U.S. withdrawal from iraq
Katherine Lawlor and Brandon Wallace write:  Iran continues to escalate proxy attacks against the U.S. in Iraq, demonstrating that it remains undeterred despite the January 3 strike that killed IRGC – Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani and key Iraqi proxy leader Abu Mehdi al-Muhandis and subsequent U.S. strikes. Iran’s proxy network in Iraq is advancing its campaign to compel an American withdrawal by increasing the operational tempo of its attacks on U.S. and allied personnel. – Institute for the Study of War
​Turkey pursues Libya campaign despite growing financial woes
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is pressing ahead with his military venture in Libya even as the coronavirus pandemic is putting further strain on Ankara’s cash-strapped coffers.
Erdoğan Battles on Multiple Fronts in Risky Regional Power Bid
By Dr. James M. Dorsey, March 30, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is at odds with just about everybody. He is on opposite sides with Russia in Syria as well as Libya and is trying the patience of his US and European allies. Turkey and Russia are testing the limits of what was always at best an opportunistic, fragile partnership aimed at capitalizing on a seemingly diminishing US interest in the Middle East, already evident under President Barack Obama and continuing under Donald Trump, who is haphazardly redefining what he sees as America’s national interests.

Continue to full article ->
Start the Negotiations, End the Afghan War Now by Sultan Barakat and Barnett Rubin
Turkey and Russia: Not Friends After All
By Burak Bekdil, March 26, 2020
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: After a three-and-a-half-year marriage of convenience, Turkey and Russia have come to realize that they are fighting on opposite sides of two proxy wars: one in Syria and the other in Libya. This comes after Russia sold Turkey $2.5 billion worth of S-400 air defense systems, won a multibillion-dollar nuclear plant contract, signed up for a lucrative natural gas pipeline, and widened the gap between NATO and its part-time member Turkey.

Continue to full article ->
Turkey’s leak of Istanbul killing shows unlikely marriage with Iran under strain
The U.S. military said Thursday that air defense systems are “moving” into Iraq following attacks on American and coalition forces in recent weeks. The weapons include Patriot surface-to-air missiles and a variant of the Navy’s SeaRAM and CIWS, or close-in weapon system, which fires 3,000 rounds a minute, a defense official with knowledge of the order told Fox News. – Fox News
Zvi Bar’el writes: No sooner than one estimate is made of the economic damage the coronavirus epidemic is wreaking on the Middle East, a more dire forecast supercedes it. […]At the moment, these countries are split between those that are wealthy and hold huge foreign currency reserves that can help fund impressive economic assistance plans, and those that are poor and are now seeking to figure out how they will finance ongoing essential needs at a time when international financial institutions are concerned about making risky loans. – Haaretz
David Axe writes: On the night of July 15, 2016, elements of the Turkish military rose up against Pres. Recep Tayyip Erdogan — and very nearly succeeded in killing or capturing their controversial leader. A few military units remained steadfastly loyal to the embattled president. Among them — the 1st Main Jet Base in Eskisehir in northwestern Turkey. The base’s F-4E Terminator 2020 fighters flew to Erdogan’s aid during the direst hours of the daylong attempted coup. – The National Interest  ​
Michael Rubin writes: Here’s the point for U.S. policymakers: To target groups like the Badr Corps, Kata’ib Hezbollah, and Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq without first delegitimizing them allows these groups to depict themselves as martyrs and the United States as an enemy of Iraq. This enables recruitment and causes retrenchment. […]Only when this differentiation is achieved, will Iraqis broadly join in and accept the dissolution or destruction of the Iranian-backed Shi’ite militias. – The National Interest ​
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MADURO'S REGIME IS GOING UNDER FAST WHILE BOJO WRESTLES THATCHER

3/29/2020

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RUSSIA RESTRUCTURES
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LIBYAN CIVIL WAR DRIVING BY REGIONAL POWERS

3/24/2020

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Tarek Megerisi writes: At its core, Libya’s war has been driven by the aspirations of regional powers, after its transition was hijacked and run aground by them. It is this dynamic that explains why the situation is deteriorating so rapidly and why the west is turning a blind eye to it. […]It is driving a dangerous race to the bottom, at an important intersection between the African and Arab worlds, and should be a wake-up call to those whose interests lie in stability. – The Guardian ​
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GORDON CHANG TAKES ON THE IMPACT OF WUHAN ON ASIAN POLITICAL ECONOMIES

3/20/2020

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China's Real Disease: Not Coronavirus by Gordon G. Chang 
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RUSSIA CAPTURES US ARTIC SUB EXERCISES; NUCLEAR WAR GAMES IN NEVADA & MILITARY EDUCATION GETS A RE-DO

3/16/2020

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Understanding a Resurgent Russia
Via Decision 2020
The ninth edition of the Decision 2020 Report highlights Hoover fellows’ research and analysis on the Russian Federation’s history, ideology, and global ambitions. It also covers the Russian economy and the dynamics of US-Russian relations.
Russia's Orthodox Grand Strategy
by Jakub Grygiel via The American Interest
Putin will leave sooner or—as it seems—later. But a revanchist Russia, shaped by a revitalized Russian Orthodox Church, will outlast him
Michael Knights writes: In parallel, the U.S. should toughen its mindset, quietly bringing the force protection assets into Iraq that it needs (i.e., Patriot missiles and anti-rocket close-in defenses) without further consultation with an Iraqi government that would rather adopt a “don’t ask, don’t tell” approach.  And finally, the U.S. should let the militias keep over-reaching, keep showing their hand as would-be dictators under Iran’s control, while the U.S.-led coalition keeps helping Iraq to defeat the Islamic State. This is a game we can win. – Politico
​

Yesar Al-Maleki writes: Iraq’s politics are complicated, but its economic prospects are attractive. The U.S. should support the development of an economically strong and politically independent Iraq. It is the sole successful model of America’s presence in the region. The administration’s short-to-medium-term strategy in Iraq will determine whether the U.S. is interested in sustaining a stabilizing role that is beneficial to both nations. Alternatively, there is a risk of throwing away years of involvement by reducing Iraq to a pawn in a larger geopolitical game with Iran, one which will likely have no winners. – Middle East Institute
AEI’s Michael Rubin: Erdogan's end game is rife with nepotism and power grab
WINEP’s Michael Knights: How the U.S. can stop the surge of deadly rocket attacks in Iraq
Attacks in Iraq underscore need for indirect fire protection capability
Russia: Aircraft Spotted Near U.S. Submarine Exercise.  NORAD reported on Saturday that it had intercepted two pairs of Tu-142 maritime reconnaissance aircraft near Alaska, the third time Russian aircraft has been spotted in the region this week.  NORAD Commander Gen. Terrence J. O’Shaughnessy stated, ““We continue to see repeated Russian military aviation activity in the Arctic, and we will defend the U.S. and Canada against these threats emanating from our northern approaches."  The reconnaissance aircraft have reportedly been spying on the U.S. ICEX exercise, a three-week exercise used to assess the readiness of U.S. submarines to operate in the Arctic. Military Times Military.com
F-15E Strike Eagle Spotted Flying With an Inert B61-12 Nuclear Bomb
By Tyler Rogoway, The WarZone: "Exercise Red Flag is underway with the U.S. and some of its tightest allies fighting a mock air war over the Nevada Test and Training Range (NTTR) in southern Nevada. Either in conjunction with the exercise or independent of it, there is a lot of testing currently going on over the same area."
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Document Likely Shows SM-6 Hypersonic Speed, Anti-Surface Role
By Steve Trimble, Aviation Week: "A U.S. Navy document that cryptically describes a versatile and powerful new missile likely offers the first confirmation of the hypersonic speed and newly acquired, antisurface-warfare role for the Raytheon SM-6 Block 1B."
Rahim Hamid and Yasser Assadi write: Unfortunately, this is the reality for many Ahwazi children—not even 13 years old, compelled to work late nights in cemeteries and left to suffer from endless nightmares. […]The lack of education and socialization among the young threatens to create a lost generation that will propagate a cycle of poverty that could last for generations. The region, already stressed, does not need the added pressures of poverty, disease and hopelessness to become embedded in another minority. – Washington Institute
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U.S., IRAN:
U.S. Navy and Special Operations Telegraph Message to Tehran

By Carl Prine, Navy Times: "A joint exercise launched March 8 and 9 in the Persian Gulf involving the Cyclone-class Monsoon and the two aircraft was designed to see how well a surface patrol ship and a long-range spy plane could select targets in the Persian Gulf for a Special Operations Command Central gunship to blast to bits."

U.S., RUSIA:
U.S. Fighters Catch Russian Spy Planes Near Alaska for 2nd Time in Days

By Hope Hodge Seck, Military.com: “The world is steadily confronting the prospect of full-fledged Chinese domination in the world’s most important waterway, the South China Sea.”

RUSSIA:
Russia to Lay Down Additional Project 22350 Stealth Frigates

By Franz-Stefan Gady, The Diplomat: "The Severnaya Verf shipyard in St. Petersburg, part of the United Shipbuilding Corporation (USC), will lay down an additional series of Admiral Gorshkov-class Project 22350 guided missile frigates for service in the Russian Navy."
Where is the Naval Expeditionary Combat Command?
By Walker D. Mills, CIMSEC: “. . . with all the calls for integration, where is the Naval Expeditionary Combat Command (NECC)? After all, the Marine Corps itself is a naval expeditionary force according to the Commandant."

The Moonshot Formula: Rediscovering Innovation in the U.S. Air Force
By Jacob Lokshin, Strategy Bridge: "The United States Air Force is in an arms race. Decades of dominance have allowed the force to slip into complacency, while near-peer adversaries have quietly developed capabilities to contest U.S. power across all domains."

As Assessment of the Concept of Competition as a Foundation to Military Planning
By Jeffrey Alston, Divergent Options: "The U.S. Military is overextending its intellectual resources regarding great power competition and is losing its focus on core warfighting concepts."
Mobilization to Demobilization: The Life of the Minuteman
By William Donnelly, War Room: “In recent years there has been much discussion about the Army’s refocusing on largescale combat operations, command at the division echelon, and the transformation of the National Guard from a strategic to an operational reserve."

Why We Need Philosophy in PME
By Christopher Wooding, Grounded Curiosity: " Professional military education (PME) underpins the study of the profession of arms within the defence community. It enables the transfer of knowledge, wisdom, and experience within services. Without PME, modern militaries would be failing as professional organisations given their responsibility to promote the development of ‘warrior-scholars.'"

China's Nuclear Arms Are a Riddle Wrapped in a Mystery
By Michael Mazza & Henry Sokolski, Foreign Policy: "Beijing's plans to build new missiles, expand anti-satellite capabilities and increase nuclear material production far above civilian needs have the world guessing.”
Syria’s brutal conflict enters its 10th year Sunday with President Bashar al-Assad’s regime consolidating its hold over a war-wracked country with a decimated economy where foreign powers flex their muscle. – Agence France-Presse

“There’s nothing now. Nothing at all,” said Yasser Aboud, as he looked away from his family’s few remaining belongings, dumped on the floor of the bare single room that would now be their home in the northwest Syrian city of Idlib.[…] The city of Idlib is the last urban area still under opposition control in Syria, located in a shrinking rebel enclave in the northwestern province of the same name. – Associated Press

Syrian dictator Bashar Assad is allowing a “disastrous” coronavirus outbreak to fester due to his dependence on stricken Iran to win the long-running civil war, according to local reports and international observers. – Washington Examiner
​

Turkish and Russian troops began joint patrols Sunday on a key highway in northwestern Syria, Turkey’s Defense Ministry said, while both the Russian government and Syrian opposition activists said the patrols were shortened because of protests. Patrols on the highway known as the M4, which runs east-west through Idlib province, are part of a cease-fire agreement between Turkey and Russia signed earlier this month. – Associated Press
Michael Rubin writes: Fifteen years ago, diplomats and analysts denied Erdoğan sought anything more than to imbue democracy with some Islamic trappings. Perhaps fifteen years from now, the same analysts will question how they could have been blind to Erdoğan’s ultimate agenda. It is fine to quibble over the five end goals voiced above, but now is the time to discuss openly how Erdoğan visualizes Turkey fifteen years from now. – The National Interest
Why is the Army Preparing for 21st-Century War with a 19th-Century Approach to Learning?
By Franklin Annis, Modern War Institute: “The U.S. Army has had a historic problem in adapting the use of self-development. The concept is misunderstood, our definitions change frequently and often conflict, the graphic display of our leader development model is unclear, we lack practical guidance on how it could be executed, we confuse it with institutional learning, we lack supporting materials, and our leaders often lack the experience to mentor soldiers how to self-develop."

Germany, Wilsonianism, and the Return of Realpolitik
By Dominik Wullers, War on the Rocks: "Until now, President Woodrow Wilson was the American statesman and moralist who implicitly shaped German foreign policy thinking."
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ECONOMIC PANIC IS HERE & THE POLITICAL CENTER RIGHT IS COLLAPSING THROUGHOUT EUROPE

3/11/2020

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ASIA TIMES
Europe’s dying center-right
Dalibor Rohac | The American Interest
The space between the cosmopolitan and progressive politics of the left and the vulgar nationalism of the populist right is shrinking. Dalibor Rohac's recent political experience attests to it.
Following last month’s Slovakian parliamentary elections, Dalibor Rohac took to the American Interest to argue that the space between the cosmopolitan and progressive politics of the left and the vulgar nationalism of the populist right is shrinking. Attesting to his recent political candidacy, Rohac concludes that that there is not much of an appetite for center-right policies among the public. That makes the question of what the future holds for European People’s Party, Europe’s largest coalition of political parties, all the more urgent. Read it here.
Game of power politics far from over in Pakistan By IMAD ZAFAR
Did the US just concede defeat in China tech war?
It’s time for ‘President Xi to go’ By GORDON WATTS
US stocks with stable cash flows that used to trade like bonds have fallen faster than the overall market during the past few days. That’s an alarm bell for the US economy, which for the past decade has gorged on cheap leverage provided by the Federal Reserve. Investors are running away from the credit risk of seemingly safe sectors like real estate and utilities. When the safest stocks aren’t safe anymore, the world looks a lot riskier to everyone. Read More
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IRAN BARELY HANGS ON:  MAXIMUM PRESSURE CONTINUES & HOW TO UNDERSTAND HYPERSONICS

3/10/2020

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Iran Can't Hide Its Dystopian Hellscape by Seth Frantzman
The Jerusalem Post
March 14, 2020

https://www.meforum.org/60575/rouhani-warns-media-to-suppress-virus-coverage
UNDERSTANDING HYPERSONICS
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Crisis Of The Iranian Order
by Tony Badran via The Caravan
The “transnational”: this is how Qassem Soleimani, the former head of Iran’s Qods Force, who was killed in a January U.S. missile strike in Baghdad, is described in Hezbollah-run schools in Lebanon. 

The Islamic Republic Soldiering On
by Sanam Vakil via The Caravan
A look back at the past few months of tumultuous domestic events in Iran and around the Middle East might lend favour to the view that Donald Trump’s maximum pressure campaign against the Islamic Republic is destabilising and weakening Iran alongsi
Iran Doesn't Understand 'Maximum Pressure'
by Victor Davis Hanson via National Review
The theocracy grows more desperate by the day and can no longer rely on its usual tactics to thwart its Arab enemies and the West.
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EGYPT AFTER MUBARAK & THE MIDDLE EAST UNRAVELS BEGINNING WITH TURKISH BLACKMAIL

3/3/2020

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Are the Forever Wars Really Forever? with Sarah E. Kreps, Paul Miller, Will Ruger, and Ryan Evans
Turkish Government Responsible for Torture, Arbitrary Killings, and Disappearances
​Erdogan turns to oil in a bid to salvage Syria policy
Turkey’s president eyes oil-related bargains in Syria after failing to achieve his stated objectives in Idlib and acquiescing to a new deal with Russia in the rebel stronghold.
Turkey seeks Syria deal with Europe as it begins joint patrols with Russia 

The leaders of Turkey, Germany and France are scheduled to gather in Istanbul on Tuesday to tackle the surge in refugees fleeing Syria as the Bashar al-Assad regime presses its offensive against the last rebel bastion in Idlib province. Frustrated by what it sees as Western inaction and lackluster support in a crisis that has seen more than 1 million Syrians flee toward the Turkish border, Ankara has opened its borders to migrants seeking to enter Europe, creating a crisis for Greece and other Turkish neighbors. Ankara is requesting air defense support to back its troops in Syria and wants more European funding to help defray the costs of the 3.5 million refugees Turkey now hosts. The summit is expected to focus mainly on financial assistance, with European leaders reluctant to get more involved in the war.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson may also join Presidents Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Emmanuel Macron and Chancellor Angela Merkel, Turkish officials said on Thursday. The coronavirus pandemic, however, may throw those plans in disarray. A German government official signaled today that the summit may be postponed as Europe copes with the spread of the virus. Meanwhile, Russia, which declined to participate in next week's summit, is set to begin joint patrols with Turkish military forces along Syria's east-west M4 highway on Sunday, in accordance with the deal struck between Turkey and Russia in Moscow last week.
Erdogan’s war in Idlib faces uphill battle on the home front
 Having failed to deliver on his ultimatum to the Assad regime, Erdogan now has a serious credibility problem domestically.
Some Syrian regime fighters defecting when forced to front lines
 With renewed fighting in northern Syria, regime officers are transferring conscripted young men from Daraa in the south to the front lines of the battles, leading to defections.
Intel: Despite new Idlib deal, Russia, Turkey look to strengthen leverage in Syria
 Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar spoke by phone with his Russain counterpart Sergey Shoigu March 10 about the progress of the bipartisan protocol over Idlib that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan signed in Moscow on March 5.
‘Let them cross’: Turkey’s president defiant on Europe border crisis
Turkey's president, after meeting with EU leaders, says Greece should open its border with Turkey to migrants and then let them cross into other European countries; Russian and Turkish patrols for a new security corridor straddling Syria's M4 highway also are set.
Libyan front looks bleak for Erdogan
While struggling to achieve its objectives in Syria, Ankara has helped Damascus gain a new ally in the opponents of the forces Turkey is backing in Libya.
Islamist Parties in Turkey: A Perpetual Matryoshka by Burak Bekdil
BESA Center Perspectives
March 9, 2020

https://www.meforum.org/60555/islamist-parties-in-turkey-a-perpetual-matryoshka
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EGYPT AFTER THE ARAB SPRING & MUBARAK:   Finish it here.
Turkey's Erdogan threatens Europe with 'millions' of migrants
 al-monitor.com
Europe Must Not Fall Victim to Erdoğan's Blackmail by Burak Bekdil
The Gatestone Institute
March 6, 2020

https://www.meforum.org/60537/europe-must-not-fall-victim-to-erdogans-blackmail
Erdogan's Attempts to Blackmail Europe are Doomed to Fail by Con Coughlin  
Don't Expect a Turkey-Russia War in Syria by Jonathan Spyer
The Jerusalem Post
March 6, 2020

https://www.meforum.org/60536/turkish-syrian-conflict
 Turkey launches military offensive against Syria 
Turkey on Sunday launched what it called Operation Spring Shield against Bashar al-Assad's forces in northern Syria, shooting down two Russian-made Syrian air force jets. Turkey said it had destroyed several air defense systems and more than 100 tanks and killed more than 2,000 Syrian troops, including three generals, since Feb. 27 airstrikes killed three dozen Turkish soldiers in Idlib province, Syria's last rebel bastion. Turkish forces have also been hitting Syrian Kurdish positions.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said today he hopes to reach a “cease-fire agreement” with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin when they meet on Thursday. That same day, US special envoy for Syria James Jeffrey will lead a delegation to Turkey for a summit on the Idlib escalation.

 Read More  
al-monitor.com
As Erdogan’s reliance on Russia grows, NATO hopes to win back wayward Turkey
Iraqi prime minister-designate quits 
Iraq's prime minister-designate Mohammed Tawfiq Allawi withdrew his candidacy for the post on Sunday after parliament failed for the second time in a week to approve his Cabinet, deepening the political crisis in the country. President Barham Salih announced he would designate a replacement prime minister within 15 days. The country could be without a prime minister if Adel Abdul Mahdi, who had stayed on in a caretaker capacity since resigning in October, decides to step down.
Read More  
al-monitor.com
Libya's eastern government visits Syria amid shared tensions with Turkey 
Libya's eastern-based government sent a delegation to Syria on Sunday, the first such visit since the Syrian war broke out in 2011. Libyan officials met with Foreign Minister Walid Moallem in Damascus and agreed to reopen diplomatic missions. The officials also discussed the “Turkish aggression against both brotherly countries,” Syria’s state news agency said. The visit comes as fighting escalates in Libya between the Turkish-backed government in Tripoli and forces loyal to eastern military commander Khalifa Hifter despite a cease-fire announced last week.
Read More  
apnews.com
Tunisia hosts Arab interior ministers summit 
The Arab Interior Ministers Council began its annual meeting in Tunis on Sunday. Saudi Interior Minister Abdulaziz bin Saud bin Nayef bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, who is heading the council, met with Tunisian President Kais Saied to discuss the “deep-rooted Saudi-Tunisian ties.” The two-day meeting will discuss ways to boost joint security cooperation between Arab countries to fight terrorism and prevent crime.
Read More  ​
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BIBI WINS ISRAEL AGAIN:  HERE'S WHY & HOW PUTIN REMAINS PRIME MINISTER FOR LIFE

3/3/2020

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​There's little left of Israel’s left
 By deciding to join the Netanyahu-Gantz government, Labor Party Chairman Amir Peretz put the final nail in the coffin of the party that founded the State of Israel.
The Struggle for Israel's Jewish Soul by Efraim Karsh and Gershon Hacohen
BESA Center Perspectives
March 16, 2020

https://www.meforum.org/60579/the-struggle-for-israel-jewish-soul
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Beyond Netanyahu's TriumphE
ditorial of The New York Sun | 
March 2, 2020
https://www.nysun.com/editorials/beyond-net
Vladimir Gelman: “An intention to preserve the political status quo and Putin’s authority is seen in the constitutional reform”
In an interview with IMR, political scientist Vladimir Gelman, professor of the European University in St. Petersburg and the University of Helsinki, discusses the origins of Russia’s bad governance, the goals of Vladimir Putin’s recent political initiatives, and the Western elite’s “jealousy.” ≫
0 Comments

BREXIT REIGNITES THE IRA:  NATIONALISM SURGES IN IRELAND

2/17/2020

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Ireland's Political Earthquake with Timothy D. Hoyt
Storms Over the Emerald Isle K. V. Turley
On the weekend of February 8, 2020, a storm ripped through Ireland. Storm Ciara was one of the worst of its kind for many years. Its winds, snows, and driving rains caused havoc with landslides and flooding. At the same time, a political storm ripped through the Irish political landscape. Sinn Féin up-ended the political […]
One Brexit effect is that the nation from which the Anglosphere ultimately derives is reassessing many of its most important relationships. Read More »
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