PUTIN: THE RUSSIAN PRESIDENT FOR LIFE; ALGERIA TRANSITIONS AGAIN & SAUDI'S GO TO WAR

We Still Have More Questions Than Answers on Russian Bounties

Thrones Wreathed in Shadow: Tacitus and the Psychology of Authoritarianism by Iskander Rehman

Dov S. Zakheim writes: Perhaps, as Trump’s poll numbers continue to sink, Putin will decide that he must exploit the window of opportunity that he now has to move his forces into Belarus, thereby placing Poland in a Russian vise. Even if he does not, Putin’s extended tenure means that Russia no longer can be seen solely as a near-term threat to American interests. On the contrary, the next several presidents will have to contend with a man whose life’s mission is, as Kennan so elegantly put it in his Long Telegram, “to seek security only in patient but deadly struggle for total destruction of rival power.” – The Hill
​
David B. Rivkin Jr. and George S. Beebe write: Confirmed or not, the allegations should serve as a sobering reminder that unconstrained shadow warfare with Moscow can produce genuine dangers for Americans. One glaring difference between the Cold War and today is that the Cold War was fought within the parameters of agreed rules. Today, we have almost none. We would be wise to consider this as our national discourse on Russia proceeds. – The Hill

Tokyo pulled out of a new missile defense system, ostensibly because it does not want to be “caught in the middle” of a confrontation, writes Stephen Bryern

A major report released by China’s National Institute for South China Sea Studies warns of the dangers of rising tension in Sino-American affairs. Gordon Watts explains that concerns are growing that intense rivalry could spill over into “armed conflict”.

The nation announced a major shift in its defense strategy to challenge China’s threat in the Indo-Pacific, with US$185 billion newly budgeted for long-range missiles, satellite surveillance and other counter-measures, reports Alan Boyd.

Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan’s coalition government faces a tri-pronged threat comprised of political defections, a spiraling Covid-19 outbreak and a collapsing economy, a triple whammy that some reckon could cut short his elected tenure, reports FM Shankil.

Why Adam Smith’s Critique of Mercantilism Matters Today

Saudi Arabia: Saudi-Led Coalition Starts Military Operation Against Yemen’s Houthis.  A Saudi-led coalition started a military operation against Yemen’s Houthi movement on Wednesday.  This comes after Yemen’s Houthi Rebels executed cross-border missile and drone attacks last week.  Yemen has reported air strikes on the capital Sanaa, Marib, al-Jouf, al-Bayda, Hajjah, and Saada provinces throughout the day and into the night.  Haaretz Reuters The New York Times

Algerian court imprisons officials, figures linked to former regime 
An Algerian court sentenced to prison several officials and businessmen linked to former President Abdelaziz Bouteflika on charges of corruption on Wednesday. Prominent tycoon Ali Haddad was slapped with an 18-year jail sentence. Meanwhile, Abdelmalek Sellal and Ahmed Ouyahia, former prime ministers who are already behind bars for other graft cases, were each handed a 12-year jail term. Jail terms ranging between two to 20 years were also handed down to eight former ministers. Authorities in Algeria have arrested several of the country’s wealthiest businessmen and former officials amid protests that continued despite Bouteflika's resignation last year, as Algerians demand a transition to democracy and the trial of figures linked to the former regime.  Read More  
yahoo.com

Oriana Skylar Mastro testified before the House Foreign Affairs Committee Subcommittee on Asia, the Pacific, and Nonproliferation to discuss how Beijing’s aims for maritime power engage US interests. Mastro recommended that Washington prioritize countering Chinese ambitions in the South China Sea and the East China Sea and devise a hedging strategy in the Indian Ocean. For any of these initiatives to succeed, however, Washington will need a lasting strategy to deter China's aggression. The US has made some progress in this regard, but given the extent of China’s maritime ambitions, it is not yet enough. Read the testimony here.

For years, there have been good reasons to move or keep certain supply chains out of China, and advanced semiconductors may top the list. Strengthening the US over China in the chip industry will require precisely crafted legislation, notes Derek Scissors in an AEIdeas blog post. One set of needed legal restrictions is export controls applied to all state-funded advanced products and technologies. However, supply chains should not be confined to the US. If friendly countries abide by export controls and restrictions on dealings with China, their participation could be advantageous. US-China competition is long term, and leveraging new semiconductor chains will pull countries and companies toward helping us.  Continue here.

Last week, the Australian government published a white paper on defense and national strategy. The report underscores that Australia is ramping up its defense spending by 40 percent over the next decade, accounting for China’s aggressive behavior in the region and toward Canberra itself, notes Gary Schmitt in an American Interest article. As most countries get ready to tighten their belts in the wake of COVID-19, the Australian government intends to deal with the security environment as it is, not as it hopes it might be.  Read more here.

The domino theory, in which setbacks accumulate quickly and catastrophically, is one of the most controversial ideas in US foreign policy. But the 70th anniversary of the Korean War alerts us that domino dynamics could affect US-China competition today. In a Bloomberg op-ed, Hal Brands points out that if China took control over Taiwan, it would undermine US strategy throughout the region and would unsettle nearby countries dependent on American power. This doesn’t mean the US should go all out to compete with China everywhere, but competition reminds us that what happens in one country may not stay there. Learn more here.

Autocratic regimes like Vladimir Putin’s Russia have enacted measures that oppress their citizens under the guise of fighting the coronavirus. The Trump administration should seek to hold governments like Russia accountable. But that is not the case this time, note Dalibor Rohac and Melissa Hooper in a Hill op-ed. If the administration is silent, then Congress must act. Congress can direct, structure, and fund federal action needed to combat autocratic power grabs and coordinate such efforts with other similarly minded nations. Continue here.

Michael Rubin writes: This is why not only Congress and the Pentagon, but also the State Department and the National Security Council should consider the impact of rebasing U.S. forces leaving Germany in Poland, especially when other alternatives exist in the Baltics, Romania, or the Czech Republic. The question then becomes whether Poland’s anti-democratic leaders will see the U.S. presence less as a defense against Russia and more as a means to immunize themselves from returning to the democratic order. U.S. forces should be in Europe to protect the liberal order, not to accelerate its end. – The National Interest