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EMERGING THREAT ASSESSMENT
GLOBAL STRIKE MEDIA.COM 
NORTH AMERICA 

Russian Ambassador Murdered in Turkey

12/20/2016

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AEI: Turkey at the Precipice
How to Understand the Russian Assassination
The View from Anakara
The attack came on the same day a 22 year old former Turkish police officer fired point-blank into the back of Andrey G. Karlov, Russia’s ambassador to Turkey at an art gallery in the Turkish capital. While the ambassador lay mortally wounded on the ground, the gunman shouted “God is great!” and “don’t forget Aleppo, don’t forget Syria!” raising questions over possible ties to terrorist groups fighting in Syria.

There were initial worries that the assassination would lead to a break between Russia and Turkey, but Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke by phone and reportedly agreed to cooperate in investigating the killing, and in combating terrorism broadly. The shooting was aimed at “disrupting the peace process in Syria that is being actively advanced by Russia, Turkey and Iran,” Putin saidlate Monday. “There can be only one answer to this - stepping up the fight against terrorism, and the bandits will feel this.”

Russian warplanes have operated with the regime in Syria to pound civilian targets -- especially in Aleppo -- since September 2015. Airwars, a group that monitors reports of civilian casualties in Iraq and Syria, estimates that Russian airstrikes in and around Aleppo killed over 1,000 civilians in November alone.
Understanding Russia Today
Russian Specialist Leon Aron, Russian Jihad II
Victor Davis Hansen: Hoover Institution Podcast "What Kind of Threat Is Russia"
Historical Rivalry: Turkey & Russia
Russia’s ambassador to Turkey, Andrey G. Karlov, was killed by a gunman on Monday in Ankara, the capital. Turkish officials said the killer had been a police officer who, after shooting, shouted: “Don’t forget Aleppo! Don’t forget Syria!” Russia’s Foreign Ministry called the assassination a terrorist attack. Here’s what we know about Mr. Karlov. – New York Times
 
Turkey and Russia, whose up-and-down relationship has helped shape the Syrian war and the many related crises, shared a new trauma on Monday after a Turkish gunman assassinated Russia’s ambassador at an art gallery in the Turkish capital, Ankara. – New York Times
 
A team of Russian detectives arrived in Turkey early Tuesday to assist with the investigation into the killing of Russia’s ambassador by a Turkish police officer, an act leaders in both countries said was an effort to rupture a rapprochement between the two regional powers as they try to reach an accommodation over Syria’s civil war. – Washington Post
Michael Rubin writes: Turkey has a terror problem. The Islamic State, Kurdish extremists and radical leftists each pursue targets inside Turkey seemingly with impunity. – Washington Examiner
 
Merve Tahiroglu writes: Both Ankara and Moscow will likely downplay Monday’s attack to maintain the ties they only re-established in June. But it is clear now that the Turkish and Russian people have not forgotten the rhetoric of their governments from the period when ties were strained. As Monday’s assassination underscores, that mutual animosity will be harder to sweep under the rug than Erdogan and Putin might hope. – Foundation for Defense of Democracies
 
Burhan Ozbilici writes: The event seemed routine, the opening of an exhibit of photographs of Russia. So when a man in a dark suit and tie pulled out a gun, I was stunned and thought it was a theatrical flourish. Instead, it was a coolly calculated assassination, unfolding in front of me and others who scrambled, terrified, for cover as the trim man with short hair gunned down the Russian ambassador. – Associated Press
 
Sean McMeekin writes: The brutal murder of the Russian Ambassador in Ankara in mid-speech on live video by a Turkish national screaming “Allahu Akhbar” is the stuff of geopolitical nightmares. Parallels to the Sarajevo outrage of June 1914 come easily to mind. – American Interest
Frederick W. Kagan writes: Russia is on a collision course with the West.  War is not inevitable.  Confrontation and conflict are.  The sources of hostility are primarily within Russia.  They transcend the aims of Vladimir Putin, but spring rather from fundamental problems created during the collapse of the Soviet Union.  Any Russian leader following Boris Yeltsin would have had to cope with them.  Others would have handled them differently, but not necessarily better from the West’s perspective or from Russia’s.  These problems form inherent and irreducible contradictions in Russia’s relationship with the West. – American Enterprise Institute
 
Leon Aron writes: In this installment, I explore the domestic impact of Russia’s involvement in Syria’s civil war and the strategies deployed by the Russian authorities to contain these effects. I sketch a few other tendencies that might energize and expand the Russian Muslim radical fringe. – War on the Rocks
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