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EMERGING THREAT ASSESSMENT
GLOBAL STRIKE MEDIA.COM 
NORTH AMERICA 

The Korea's & East Asian Policy 

4/17/2017

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North Korea
 
North Korea launched a ballistic missile Sunday morning from near its submarine base in Sinpo on its east coast, but the launch was the latest in a series of failures just after liftoff, according to American and South Korean military officials. – New York Times
 
In the wake of North Korea’s failed missile test over the weekend, Trump administration officials stepped up pressure on China, saying the threat has reached an inflection point that demands new urgency. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
Vice President Pence warned North Korea Monday that it could be in for the same treatment as Syria and Afghanistan — both of which the Trump administration has bombed this month — if it continues with its nuclear program. – Washington Post
 
North Korea showed off what appeared to be at least one new long-range missile at a military parade Saturday, as tensions simmer over the possibility of a military confrontation between the U.S. and North Korea. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
Even as Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping pledge to stop North Korea’s fast-advancing nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs, there’s one uncomfortable secret that neither leader has publicly acknowledged: Chinese banks and businesses are playing key roles in providing Pyongyang with access to the global markets they need to acquire critical parts and technologies. - Politico
 
North Korea snubbed senior Chinese diplomats this month as tensions mounted with the U.S., according to people familiar with the situation, raising questions about the influence Beijing’s leaders have over Kim Jong Un. - Bloomberg
 
National security adviser H.R. McMaster said a failed early-morning missile test by North Korea "fits into a pattern of provocative and destabilizing and threatening behavior on the part of the North Korean regime." - Politico
 
How President Trump responds to North Korea’s push to develop a nuclear missile capable of striking the United States could be the “first real test” of his administration, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) said Sunday. – The Hill
 
North Korea is sending a “message to China,” as well as the U.S. and Japan, with its latest round of failed missile launches, the top House Republican on military issues said Sunday. – The Hill
 
Homeland Security Secretary John Kelly said he's more concerned about North Korea launching a cyber attack on the U.S. than any direct military action. – The Hill
 
Analysis: What is playing out, said Robert Litwak of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, who tracks this potentially deadly interplay, is “the Cuban missile crisis in slow motion.” But the slow-motion part appears to be speeding up, as President Trump and his aides have made it clear that the United States will no longer tolerate the incremental advances that have moved Mr. Kim so close to his goals. – New York Times
 
Josh Rogin reports: Despite heated rhetoric about potential military conflict, the Trump administration’s official policy on North Korea is not aimed at regime change, but rather seeks to impose “maximum pressure” on Pyongyang in the hopes of returning to negotiations to get rid of its growing nuclear arsenal. That’s the result of a comprehensive policy review the Trump White House completed this month. – Washington Post
 
Editorial: Mr. Trump’s art of the deal includes keeping adversaries guessing, but eventually China may choose to test how far he is willing to go to stop a Korean nuclear missile. Mr. Trump needs to make clear what he will do if China won’t make a Korean deal. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
William Perry writes: We might have to use military force against North Korea at some point, but now is not the time. We still have a real opportunity for successful diplomacy. The big question is: Do we have the sense to seize this chance? After all, it could be the last one we have. - Politico
 
East Asia
 
South Korea’s recently impeached and ousted president, Park Geun-hye, was formally indicted on Monday on charges of collecting or demanding $52 million in bribes, becoming the first leader put on criminal trial since the mid-1990s, when two former military-backed presidents were imprisoned for corruption and mutiny. – New York Times
 
China and Russia have launched intelligence-gathering vessels to follow the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier as it travels toward the Korean Peninsula, multiple Japenese government sources told The Yomiuri Shimbun, as reported by the Associated Press. – The Hill
 
Josh Rogin reports: Pence’s four-nation tour of Asia, which will take him also to Japan, Indonesia and Australia, could be called a reassurance tour, meant to both remind America’s Pacific allies where we’ve come from and let them know that the United States under Trump has a clear sense and firm commitment to where we are going. There’s no doubt that reassurance is both badly needed and welcomed, given the confusion foreign partners have about the Trump administration. – Washington Post
 
Chris Miller and Joshua Walker write: On some issues of Asia-Pacific security, the United States and Russia might even find that they agree. Yet Washington too often only sees Russia through a European lens. Japan’s effort to rebuild its relations with Moscow just might help us see Russia and Asia in a new light. – War on the Rocks
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