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EMERGING THREAT ASSESSMENT
GLOBAL STRIKE MEDIA.COM 
NORTH AMERICA 

turkey hit with emerging russian jihad:  crossroads

6/29/2016

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AEI Leon Aron "Russian Jihad" Coming
  • Istanbul attackers identified as Russian, Uzbek, and Kyrgyz
Turkish government officials say they are investigating the possibility that the bombing at Ataturk airport in Istanbul on Tuesday was carried out by Eastern European and Central Asian Islamic State militants. Though officials have only said publicly that they think one of the attackers was a foreigner, Turkish media have reported that the attackers were citizens of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and the Russian province of Dagestan, and that at least two of the attackers, including the organizer, Akhmed Chatayev, were of Chechen origin. Turkish police have raided 16 locations in Istanbul and Izmir believed to be associated with Islamic State militants in Turkey and have made 13 arrests in connection with the bombings.
Interview: The Cipher Brief sat down with Soner Cagaptay, Director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, to discuss the dramatic implications of Tuesday’s terrorist attack at Istanbul’s Ataturk Airport. – The Cipher Brief
 
Editorial: Istanbul shows that the threat of major, coordinated terrorist attacks by the Islamic State has not been much diminished by successes such as the recent recapture of the Iraqi city of Fallujah, or the killing of senior Islamic State commanders and organizers in U.S. raids and drone strikes. The elimination of the terrorists’ two principle bases, Mosul in Iraq and Raqqa in Syria, is necessary not just to liberate Iraqis and Syrians but also to protect the citizens of Western democracies and allies such as Turkey. Progress toward that goal is still too sluggish — especially when it comes to forging the political arrangements that will be necessary to create an Iraqi alliance that can capture multiethnic Mosul and peacefully govern it afterward. – Washington Post
 
Editorial: Coming after the terrorist atrocity in Orlando, Fla., the Istanbul attack is a reminder that the furies of the Arab world won’t stay confined if we merely leave Syria and Iraq alone. It may be too late for President Obama to understand that the power vacuums he created in the Middle East are the source of today’s global terror, but the next U.S. President cannot afford to be as naive. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
Kori Schake writes: Neither Turkey nor Jordan can much longer withstand the combined pressures of millions of refugees, fear of terrorist attacks, and the way both those circumstances are changing political life in their countries. The crumbling of America’s allies is the unacknowledged cost of President Obama’s slow-roll strategy to defeat ISIS. – National Review Online
The three suicide bombers who attacked Istanbul's Ataturk Airport have been identified as nationals from Russia, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, a senior Turkish official said Thursday. – Washington Post
 
The death toll wrought by three suicide bombers at Turkey’s busiest airport rose Wednesday to 42 as the country grappled with what its leaders called a suspected Islamic State offensive that has pulled it deeper into the Middle East’s turmoil. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
A brazen assault by three suicide bombers on Istanbul’s Ataturk Airport has set the stage for a more violent conflict between Turkey and the Islamic State, a development that would deepen Turkish involvement in the Syrian civil war. – Washington Post
 
[T]he Turkish government and Western officials say the suicide bombings at Istanbul’s main airport on Tuesday bore the hallmarks of an Islamic State attack, and they have added them to a growing roll call of assaults attributed to the group in Turkey in recent months. Analysts said Turkey was paying the price for intensifying its action against the Islamic State, also known as ISIS, ISIL or Daesh. – New York Times
Three suicide bombers attacked Ataturk airport in Istanbul last night, killing at least 41 people and wounding more than 230 others. At least one of the attackers opened fire on bystanders with an assault rifle before detonating his explosives, and video being reviewed by authorities shows some of the attackers being confronted by security guards before the blasts. Though most of the dead are Turkish, 13 of the victims were foreign nationals. Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim told press that initial findings from the investigation suggest the Islamic State is responsible. "This attack, targeting innocent people is a vile, planned terrorist act,” he said.
Three suicide attackers killed at least 41 people and wounded dozens more at Istanbul’s main airport on Tuesday night, in the latest in a string of terrorist attacks in Turkey, a NATO ally once seen as a bastion of stability but now increasingly consumed by the chaos of the Middle East. – New York Times
 
Turkish authorities combed through video and witness statements Wednesday following an assault by three suicide bombers at the country's largest airport , seeking to reconstruct an attack that killed at least 41 people and threatened to plunge Turkey into deeper uncertainty. – Washington Post
 
Three months after attacking Brussels airport, terrorists have shown in the attack on Istanbul’s international airport an alarming ability to stay one move ahead of the defenses put in place to stop them—an agility in planning that could present a new and serious threat to airports in the U.S. – The Daily Beast
 
The sudden rapprochement suggests that Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s president, is adopting a new, more conciliatory approach to foreign policy following an ill-fated period that was characterised by isolation and tensions with former allies. A return to a more pragmatic philosophy for the Nato member and regional power, which straddles Europe and the Middle East, would be a rare positive step in a region marred by instability — and one welcomed by foreign diplomats and investors. – Financial Times
Kurdish Regional Political Aspirations
The American Enterprise Institute's Michael Rubin has released a new report, "Kurdistan Rising: Considerations for the Kurds, Their Neighbors, and the Region," which examines the challenges to Kurdish political aspirations in the Middle East. The report says that the political reality of Iran, Iraq, and Syria's Kurdish populations is more complex than commonly assumed with intra-Kurdish politics playing home to a range of actors and agendas. Rubin argues that Iran, more than Turkey, is the largest impediment to the establishment of an independent Kurdish state.
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