Dr. Michael Auslin writes: While it may seem risky to take a hard line now against China, Washington may have no choice later on, or it will be forced to accept a major diminution of its credibility in Asia. Simply put, this is about stopping bullying in its tracks and maintaining stability in the world's most heavily-trafficked waterways. –CNN
The Strategist Six
From Patrick M. Cronin, The Strategist (ASPI): "1. China has been throwing its weight around for many centuries and will continue to do so in the future, especially if its leaders believe they can flout rules with impunity. Officials in Beijing naturally like to exploit opportunities, and in the past decade those opportunities have included the Global Financial Crisis, the incomplete and overly uni-dimensional US pivot to Asia, and the lack of unity among China’s neighbours. . ."
From Patrick M. Cronin, The Strategist (ASPI): "1. China has been throwing its weight around for many centuries and will continue to do so in the future, especially if its leaders believe they can flout rules with impunity. Officials in Beijing naturally like to exploit opportunities, and in the past decade those opportunities have included the Global Financial Crisis, the incomplete and overly uni-dimensional US pivot to Asia, and the lack of unity among China’s neighbours. . ."
- Bosco: How Trump could move away from One China Policy
Joseph Bosco writes: Without itself severing relations, the United States could instead recognize Taiwan and adopt a one China, one Taiwan policy, placing on Beijing the burden for breaking U.S.-China ties. If China chose to incur the economic and other consequences and rupture relations, Washington could then invite Taipei to enter into a new defense treaty. – The Diplomat
David Feith writes: Donald Trump is a master at pinpointing the vulnerabilities of his rivals, and it doesn’t take a genius to see which issues Beijing doesn’t want to be called out on. They’re the ones it spends so much time and effort seeking to squash through censorship and intimidation at home and overseas. Like the testimony of Anastasia Lin. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
David Feith writes: Donald Trump is a master at pinpointing the vulnerabilities of his rivals, and it doesn’t take a genius to see which issues Beijing doesn’t want to be called out on. They’re the ones it spends so much time and effort seeking to squash through censorship and intimidation at home and overseas. Like the testimony of Anastasia Lin. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
Cracks in the Chinese Powerhouse
From Timothy Heath, The Cipher Brief: “Like most other countries that have experienced rapid development, China is struggling to transition from a highly successful but unsustainable economic model. Such a transformation is difficult to carry out in even the best of economic climates, but Beijing faces the additional challenge of executing difficult reforms in the face of an increasingly inhospitable global economy. To avoid global stagnation, the world’s leading economies require even closer coordination and innovative policies to spur global demand. Whether global leaders can resist the growing call for retrenchment and enact policies that invigorate growth remains to be seen.”
From Timothy Heath, The Cipher Brief: “Like most other countries that have experienced rapid development, China is struggling to transition from a highly successful but unsustainable economic model. Such a transformation is difficult to carry out in even the best of economic climates, but Beijing faces the additional challenge of executing difficult reforms in the face of an increasingly inhospitable global economy. To avoid global stagnation, the world’s leading economies require even closer coordination and innovative policies to spur global demand. Whether global leaders can resist the growing call for retrenchment and enact policies that invigorate growth remains to be seen.”
China's H-6K Strategic Bomber Circling Taiwan
From Sebastien Roblin, The National Interest, The National Interest: “China recently deployed one of its H-6 bombers on a long-range patrol of the Nine-Dash Line that it claims marks the extent of its territorial waters in the Pacific Ocean. The flight was made in response to remarks by President-elect Trump suggesting that the United States might abandon its long-standing policy towards Taiwan and recognize the island as an independent country. As such, the patrol was an almost flattering imitation of the U.S. Air Force’s practice of flying enormous B-52 bombers by countries that have aroused Washington’s ire as a means of broadcasting threat and registering displeasure. Take, for example, a B-52 overflight of waters claimed by China one year ago.”
From Sebastien Roblin, The National Interest, The National Interest: “China recently deployed one of its H-6 bombers on a long-range patrol of the Nine-Dash Line that it claims marks the extent of its territorial waters in the Pacific Ocean. The flight was made in response to remarks by President-elect Trump suggesting that the United States might abandon its long-standing policy towards Taiwan and recognize the island as an independent country. As such, the patrol was an almost flattering imitation of the U.S. Air Force’s practice of flying enormous B-52 bombers by countries that have aroused Washington’s ire as a means of broadcasting threat and registering displeasure. Take, for example, a B-52 overflight of waters claimed by China one year ago.”
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